SBlack

The greenback has remained confined within near term established range and further sideways trading above yesterday's low of 112.02, although test of 112.65-70 cannot be ruled out, reckon upside would be limited to the upper Kumo (now at 112.91) and price should falter well below 113.40-50, bring further choppy trading later.

Would not chase this rise here and would be prudent to reinstate long on pullback as said support at 1.1310 should limit downside. Below support at 1.1283 would defer and suggest top is possibly formed, risk correction to 1.1250-60 first.

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As the greenback has retreated after intra-day rise to 113.01, suggesting minor consolidation below this level would be seen and test of 112.29 support cannot be ruled out, however, reckon downside would be limited to 111.95-00 and bring another rise later, above said resistance would extend the rise from 110.67 low to 113.20-25 and later towards 113.50 but near term overbought condition should limit upside and price should falter below strong resistance at 113.82.

As the single currency has remained under pressure, retaining our view that near term downside risk remains for the fall from 1.1342 to bring retracement of recent rise and weakness to 1.1140-43 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0822-1.1342) is likely, however, reckon 1.1100-05 would limit downside and bring rebound later. Above 1.1200-05 would bring test of resistance at 1.1239 but break there is needed to signal low is formed, then stronger rebound to 1.1285 would follow.

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We suspect that the market will rebound today, but is likely to meet initial resistance at 113.04 the 20 day ma and remain capped by the short term resistance line at 114.22. Below 110.00 will see the 106.63/38.2% retracement of the move up from 2012 re-engage.

EURUSD is facing 1.1376 resistance, a break of this level will confirm that the uptrend from 1.0517 has resumed, then next target would be at 1.2000 area.

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Break of 115.96 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of completion of the correction. Consolidation of the downtrend from 123.75, further decline to 105.00 area is still possible after consolidation.

Key support is at 1.0700, as long as this level holds, the uptrend could be expected to continue, and next target would be at 1.2000 area. On the downside, a breakdown below 1.0700 support will indicate that the uptrend had completed at 1.1376 already

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 medium term top is developing into a deeper correction. Further fall would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 at 106.63 and possibly below.

Extension above here is needed to open up further strength to the 200-day average and late February high at 1.1046/68. We would expect a cap here and above it is needed to turn the trend higher again for 1.1101 then 1.1166.

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Below 110.98 will extend the fall from 125.85 and target long term fibonacci level at 106.63. Though, firm break of 115.96 will indicate near term reversal and bring stronger rise back to retest 125.85 high.

At this point, deeper fall is still expected in EUR/USD as long as 1.1138 resistance holds. As noted before, the rebound from 1.0517 should have completed at 1.1376. Further fall should be seen to 1.0809.

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment as consolidation pattern from 110.98 might extend. In case of another rise, we'd expect upside to be limited by 115.96 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption.

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside for 1.0809 support. The rebound from 1.0517 should have completed at 1.1376. Break of 1.0809 will confirm this case and target retest of 1.0517 low.

Below 110.98 will extend the fall from 125.85 and target long term fibonacci level at 106.63. Though, firm break of 115.96 will indicate near term reversal and bring stronger rise back to retest 125.85 high.

Further fall should be seen to 1.0809 support first. Break there will bring retest of 1.0517 low. On the upside, though, above 1.1136 minor resistance will turn bias neutral first.