joaquinmonfort

Daily technicals from Forex4you

Hi everyone,

My name is Joaquin Monfort and I am an analyst for Forex4you.com.

I will be posting daily technical analysis of major pairs and occasionally signals on this forum.

I'm the author of the analysis which also sometimes appears on other sites.

I hope you find my tips interesting and useful and feel free to provide feedback.

Kind rgds,

Joaquin

www.forex4you.com

GBP/USD: rangebound

Cable is consolidating in a narrow range. This may be a flag pattern which will eventually break lower and renew the recent down-trend, in which case a decisive move below 1.5970 could lead to a deeper sell-off down to support at 1.5910, at the 38.2% fibonacci line of July's rally. Alternatively a recovery might reach the old trend-line at 1.6090, with confirmation from a decisive break above the range highs at 1.6035.

EUR/USD: double bottom

Eurodollar has formed a double bottom at yesterday's lows and has managed to remain above the upper line of the wedge. Momentum is converging bullishly and we will probably see a rally from here. A rise above the neckline at 1.2913 would target 1.3000 – although a nearer target would be the tough level of resistance at 1.2970. A re-break of the 1.2824 lows would lead to a renewal of the down-trend perhaps to support at 1.2775.

AUD/USD: up-move possible

The aussie has bounced and will probably rise higher now. A close above yesterday's highs at 1.0246 would provide confirmation of a rally higher, with an upside target at 1.0346. A break below 1.01746 swing lows, however, would probably pave the way to further downside and a re-touch of the 1.0146 support low.

EUR/USD: rebound possible

The EUR/USD pair has reached support from the channel-line of the July rally and the monthly pivot. It will probably make a bounce from here. Bullish confirmation could come from a move above 1.2885. It will probably reach the cluster of moving averages at 1.2940 first and then eventually round-number resistance at 1.3000. A break below Tuesday's lows at 1.2833 might initiate a continuation down, although another major trend-line at 1.2785 gets in the way of deeper penetration.

GBP/USD: downside projected

The GBP/USD pair continues trending down. Today it has fallen to support at 1.6000 and rebounded, and it is quite possible the bounce will take it back up to resistance at 1.6050. After that, however, the down-trend will probably resume. In any event a break below 1.5975 should act as bearish confirmation and target the support level at 1.5910.

EUR/USD: continuation down

Eurodollar has fallen sharply this morning and has re-touched support from the upper line of the wedge formation. The move down has been very strong and rapid and there is a chance that it will break through the support and fall more deeply, reaching 1.2850. A bounce, however, would probably see a move up to 1.2950, before then likely resuming its descent.

EUR/USD: breaking down

The EUR/USD pair has started to sell-off. It has just hit the 100-4hr MA but I expect it to resume the down-trend. A head & shoulders pattern at the highs has triggered with a down target of 1.2915, which is at the same level as the upper-line of the wedge pattern at 1.2920. It has provided support previously and would be expected to again. Thus I see a probable continuation down to 1.2920 initially, with perhaps a further move down to 1.2840 afterwards. A rebound higher, would be expected to find resistance at the neckline of the H&S at 1.2990.

GBP/USD is channelling down. It has already fallen a lot and has reached a strong combination of support at 1.6045, from here it may bounce for a short time – to perhaps as high as resistance at 1.6095 – but the major trend-line has been breached so a continuation down to the next major support level at 1.5910 is highly probable.

GBP/USD: technical analysis

Cable is trading in a tight consolidation ahead of the release of Non-farm payrolls data. It rose strongly yesterday from support at the monthly pivot and it is possible it will continue higher. A move above 1.6210 might give strong confirmation of a rise higher, perhaps to the 1.6305 highs or the cluster of pivots above that at 1.6350. A break below 1.6150 alternatively might open the way to a possible move down to support at the 1.6095 lows.

Eurodollar will probably resume its rally given the strength of the powerful up-move yesterday which is likely to continue, as well as the wave count which indicates the current rally may be a 5th wave, of the move from the July lows. A decisive break above 1.3050 would provide strong bullish confirmation. The target higher could be the old highs and the monthly pivot at 1.3175. The trend-line at 1.2970 would be expected to provide support to any down-move.