bhinder1713006680
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Daily Outlook 2-09-2014
EUR / USD
The EUR traded lower against the USD and closed at 1.3131, after the German GDP contracted in the second quarter of 2014.
In other economic news, the rate of expansion in Euro-zone manufacturing production eased to a 13-month low in August. The PMI in the Euro-zone dropped to 50.7 in August, compared with 51.8 in July. Moreover, with prospects of more sanctions by EU leaders on Russia for its recent incursion in Ukraine, the Euro is expected to remain under pressure.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.3111, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3100. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.314, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3158.
Going forward, investors would pay attention to a slew of economic releases from the US later in the day.
GBP / USD
The GBP rose 0.13% against the USD and closed at 1.6612.
the UK market PMI edged down in August to 52.5, falling to its lowest level in 14-months, against market expectations for a reading of 55.1 and compared to a reading of 54.8 registered in the prior month. Additionally, data revealed that the UK borrowings rose a total of £3.4 billion in July, the highest in six years.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.6561, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.6537. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.6627, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.6669.
Trading trends in the Pound today are expected to be determined by the PMI construction data from the UK, scheduled in a few hours.
USD / JPY
The USD strengthened 0.18% against the JPY and closed at 104.32. the vehicle sales in Japan eased 5.0% on an annual basis, in August, following a 0.6% rise registered in July. Early morning data indicated that the labour cash earnings in Japan had risen 2.6% in July, compared to a revised 1.0% rise in the previous month, while markets were expecting it to rise 0.9%
The pair is expected to find support at 104.3, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 103.85. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 105.01, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 105.26.
Going forward, investors await services PMI data from Japan, scheduled to release early tomorrow.
USD/CHF
The USD rose 0.07% against the CHF and closed at 0.9195. The Swiss Franc lost ground, after Switzerland’s manufacturing PMI fell to 52.9 in August.
The pair is expected to find support at 0.9183, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9166. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9211, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9222.
Trading trends in the Swiss today are expected to be determined by the Q2 Swiss GDP, scheduled in a few hours.
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Daily Outlook 1-09-2014
Euro keeps taking hits from various fronts like US data to the speculation that the QE from the ECB may come this week. The divergence between the US & Eurozone economies is getting more and more clearly reflected in the respective currencies.
Euro (1.3123) crashed exactly from our resistance at 1.3220 to reach our medium term target of 1.31. Now it is very close to the long term support zone of 1.3050-3000 though no sign of strength is visible. Let’s see if any short covering emerges from these levels.
Dollar-Yen (104.17) is close to hit a new 7-month high above 104.26 but still needs a break above 104.50 to gather bullish momentum for reaching higher levels. The grinding price action without any kind of directional move in Euro-Yen (136.69) actually shows the relative uniformity between Euro & Yen as both weakened simultaneously. The pair remains weak below 138 and the range of 136-138 may sustain for a few sessions more.
Pound (1.6596) is stuck within a very narrow range of 1.6540-1.6620 and even a break above 1.66 could not boost the pair. The downtrend remains firm and any bounce may face selling pressure from 1.6700-50 levels.
Aussie (0.9338) is testing the August high at 0.9375 levels but the lack of momentum doesn’t promise much more immediate upside. A failure to break above 0.9375 may drag it down towards 0.9280-50 levels once again.
Gold (1286.75) is trading lower after a short upward correction from 1271. We may see a rise towards 1300 before falling back to 1280 in the near term while the longer term remains bearish. Gold-WTI ratio (13.42) has fallen from resistance at 14 but may bounce back from 13.3-13.4 levels to target 14.5-15 levels.
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Exclusive Reasons for Having A Trading Plan Just Before Starting Off
Just before you start your college session, there are a couple of smart bees who decide how to manage the day. Forget about the strict timetable, the college notice board comes up with. You can prepare your own daily time-table to be incorporated after college hours. You can dedicate two hours of study in Math, in case you feel you are not so good at it. The next day off after study hours can include English. Likewise, when you have a dedicated time table, after-study hours, you are able to crack exams with a better level of confidence. The same thing holds good for excellent performance in trading.
You need to have a clear cut plan or objective just before you start of trading. This makes sure you don’t go off track and you remain accountable to whatever transactions you strike on the market. This ensures you follow trading with a scholastic as well as a disciplined approach. You can stick it up on your walls or near the fridge in the form of post chits or green cards so that the plan is clearly visible in front of you. An excel sheet can also be maintained on your laptop, configuring your trade losses, risk per trade lot and wins for the particular day. This makes sure you are able to gauge your own performance and know where you are heading at. Looking at charts and indices comes next.
The trading strategy contains the following
Define your entry strategy. Just jot down what will be the course of action, you would ideally take, if the markets are signaling downwards or experiencing reverse spins for most of the day. When the markets are completely dampened, it is better to stay idle than to put up with huge losses.
Determine your risk vs reward scenario. On any given situation, you need to know when to apply a stop loss to minimize risks and as far as winning trades are concerned, you need to exit markets for the day. You need to have the goal mentioned clear cut. This is so that you are not tempted to over trade or over leverage on your account.
You need to determine the exit strategy well in advance. When you are at it, i.e. The live trading domain, you are completely lost and lose out your self-written objectives. Better to get it written down on a note pad or trading journal book.
Never adjust stop loss to meet a desired position size. You need to be earnest in following up with business ethics. Earn money using your own merit and not by manipulations.
After the trade is over, play a game of solitaire or chess on your PC or otherwise. This relieves you from feelings of frustration, anger, disappointment or whatever emotional feelings that can put you back on the vicious cycle.
These 5 things determine a devised strategy before you start off live in the market.
Happy trading hours!
http://www.commexfx.com/exclusive-reasons-for-having-a-trading-plan-just-before-starting-off/
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Daily Outlook 28-08-2014
EUR USD
The EUR rose 0.19% against the USD and closed at 1.3193, despite the German Gfk consumer confidence unexpectedly easing in September for the first time in more than one and a half years.
Meanwhile, the German Finance Minister, Wolfgang Schaeuble, in an interview, said that the comments made by the ECB Chief, Mario Draghi, at the Jackson Hole, were “over-interpreted”, raising concerns that the central bank may not be as close to introducing additional stimulus measures as previously indicated.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.3173, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3134. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3235, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3258.
Trading trends in the pair today are expected to be determined by unemployment rate and inflation data from Germany. Additionally, investors would keep a close eye on GDP numbers from the US.
GBP USD
The GBP rose 0.18% against the USD and closed at 1.6575.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.6554, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.6516. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.6618, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.6644.
Going forward, investors would look at Britain’s Gfk consumer confidence, scheduled in the midnight.
USD JPY
The USD weakened 0.19% against the JPY and closed at 103.90.
Yesterday, Japan’s Vice Economy Minister, Yasutoshi Nishimura, cautioned that the Japanese government needs to be more careful regarding its upcoming decision about raising the national sales tax.
The pair is expected to find support at 103.61, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 103.46. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 104.01, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 104.25.
Going forward, investors would focus on Japan’s crucial consumer prices and jobless rate data, scheduled to release in the midnight.
USD/CHF
The USD declined 0.29% against the CHF and closed at 0.9149.
The Swiss UBS consumption indicator fell to 1.66 in July, compared to a reading of 2.07, registered in the previous month.
The pair is expected to find support at 0.9117, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9097. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.917, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9203.
Investors would await Q2 employment levels in Switzerland, slated to release ahead in the day.
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Top 5 factors which will impact your Trading performance
Trading is neither easy nor difficult; it is an art which requires continuous planning, setting and sticking to goals, persistent thinking and tons of discipline. The trick is to study the market movement, the highs and lows, and to know when to cut your losses and make a killing!
The following are 5 tips which you should incorporate in your everyday trading plan to reach the level of trading you wish to achieve.
They are:
Keep the thinking process simple
The more you trade the more risk you manage with your hard-earned money; and the more complicated it can become for you. Due to this, the trading strategy you employ must be disciplined and strict in a systematic way, enabling you to achieve certain professionalism in your trading.
The best advice is to invest only money you can afford to lose. So if you decide to invest $2000 , then bear in mind that you could lose this. Be smart; arm yourself with knowledge and tons of patience! Slowly and surely, study the market movement, place your trades and cut your losses as soon as you can. This way your approach to trading becomes a disciplined one. Whatever money you have earned during course of trading needs to be put back into the account itself. This way, you give a minimum lock in period for the capital base to grow.
Stick to major currencies
It is better you trade with two to four sets of currencies to discover the joy of trading, than sampling 40 different currencies which will only confuse you. If you trade with major forex currency pairs, the markets are more liquid and less volatile for you to succeed in maximizing your profits without too much risk.
Keep minimum number of trading steps
Keep a trading journal in front of you. And record the transactions which you perform on a daily basis. Make a track of losses which you could have avoided, had you applied alternative trading strategies.
Keep to three or four basic trading strategies and stick to these. If you include too many trading trends and ideas they can both drain you and confuse you. It is the quality and not the quality of trading principles which will eventually work in your favour..
Know your maximum dollar risk per trade, do not exceed
Ideally you would need to deposit at least $5000 in your live trading account to get exposure to big position sizes. The money you deposit needs to be utilized optimally. At the same time, avoid risking too much of capital. You need to evaluate how much money you are comfortable with losing out in one single trade. Once you have analyzed everything, follow a disciplined approach to leave losses to the comfort zone. Never exceed that particular amount on any given day. You can make your earnings better by minimizing your potential losses.
Price action movement
Price action is a technical analysis and is the simplest strategy which is recommended for beginners to learn. These are feel good signals of the market where you need to sell the currency. There is an indicator to buy currencies as well. Price action strategy is tried and tested and follows a scientific approach to trading. You can incorporate this in your daily trading plan.
Follow up these up and become a successful savvy trader from day one!
http://www.commexfx.com/top-5-factors-which-will-impact-your-trading-performance/
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Daily Outlook 27-08-2014
EUR/USD
The EUR declined 0.14% against the USD and closed at 1.3168. The USD gained ground, following upbeat economic data from the US.
In the US, the orders for the durable goods climbed a record 22.6%. Additionally, the consumer confidence in the US rose to its highest level since October 2007 to a reading of 92.4 in August, beating market expectations.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.314, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3115. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3203, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3241.
Trading trends in the Euro today are expected to be determined by German consumer confidence data, scheduled in a few hours.
GBP / USD
The GBP fell 0.13% against the USD and closed at 1.6546.
In economic news, the mortgage approvals in the UK declined to two-month low in July, diminishing optimism over the health of the housing sector in the nation.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.6527, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.6502. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.6587, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.6622.
Amid lack of economic releases from the UK today, trading trends in the pair today are expected to be determined by global events.
USD/JPY
The USD traded tad higher against the JPY and closed at 104.09.
In economic news, the Japanese small business confidence index fell to 47.7 in August, compared to market expectations of a rise to a level of 49.5.
The pair is expected to find support at 103.8, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 103.55. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 104.24, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 104.44.
USD/CHF
The USD rose 0.16% against the CHF and closed at 0.9176.
The pair is expected to find support at 0.9146, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9117. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9195, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9215.
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ONCE A DEMO ALWAYS A DEMO
Traders either loathe them or worship them, but, if the truth be told, demo accounts are used by brokers to entice traders to open live accounts.
Conventional wisdom suggests that demo accounts are a safe way to sample a risk-free trading environment, since we all know that plunging into the deep end and placing orders with no prior experience can result in a loss of large sums of money.
Demo accounts are supposed to combat inexperience and trading naivety, but do they?
The main factor of Demo accounts is that they do not trade with real money. This lack of risk would be considered an advantage in itself, but it does not make the trading experience realistic, it makes it emotionless, you don’t care if a position goes well or if you lose all your trading capital. There are no consequences for your actions, you don’t bother to learn from your mistakes and there is no disincentive to trade in a particular way. You don’t get to rationalize in real money – there’s no impetus to cut your losses and run on with your profits, nor is there any means of truly highlighting the riskier strategies from those that are more cautious. With a demo account, there’s no real accountability, which can and does hamper the trading experience.
Overconfidence, a detrimental factor- demo traders enter the financial markets with unrealistic balances in their account of up to $100,000, possibly an amount bigger than they would ever have in a live account. They will hold large losing positions which would be impossible to float on a live account with their own capital. This big amount of virtual money accessible to the demo trader is highly unrealistic; imagine if he only wants to trade a mini or a micro account? It will encourage the demo trader to take on riskier trades than he would normally do in a live account with real money, developing excessive risk trading into a habit which will be disastrous when the demo trader becomes a live trader!
Limitations of a demo account-their impact on trading strategy and style is actually much less than it could be. Demo accounts are often inherently limited, either in functionality or in the markets they represent. Market data is often delayed, as it is fed through the demo trading platforms/servers, eliminating much of the intricate features of trading, such as news announcements and live market events, this somehow prevents a demo trader from becoming an accomplished trader ready to take on the real world of FX trading!
Demo psychology-demo trading does not accurately reflect the true psychology of a live trader as trading with virtual money will not allow you to have the real gut feeling of making trading decisions on the spot and under extreme pressure that trading with your own hard earned money entails. With no real money at stake, the trader’s understanding of the underlying risk is actually limited or impaired. Alternatively, when you do trade on a live account, you can clearly see the need for discipline and risk management, elements which are not deemed necessary when trading with virtual money.
Conclusion-few will argue that a forex demo account can be undeniably useful in developing and mastering a certain trading strategy but unless the trader experiences the difficulty of making trading decisions involving real money and experiencing the pain of losing funds, he will not fully understand, much less avoid, the real risks of FX trading!
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Daily Outlook 26-08-2014
EUR/USD
The EUR declined 0.08% against the USD and closed at 1.3186.
Over the weekend at the Jackson Hole Summit, the ECB Chief, Mario Draghi, revealed that the policymakers are willing to introduce additional stimulus, if there is further drop in inflation in the region.
In the US, the pace of growth in the services sector lost momentum as the services PMI fell for a second consecutive month in August to a level of 58.5, below the reading of 60.8 registered in July.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.3184, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3165. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3217, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3231.
Going forward, the crucial durable goods orders and consumer confidence data from the US would be closely watched.
GBP/USD
The GBP rose 0.12% against the USD and closed at 1.6568.
in the Jackson Hole Summit, the BoE Deputy Governor, Ben Broadbent, stated that wage growth in Britain is not going to pick up anytime soon. He further mentioned that the bank would not hike its benchmark rates until there is a clear prospect of stronger wage growth in the nation.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.6564, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.6534. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.6611, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.6628.
Amid a light economic calendar from the UK today, trading trends in the pair today are expected to be determined by news from various economies.
USD/JPY
The USD strengthened 0.16% against the JPY and closed at 104.05, following soft economic releases from the US.
theBoJ Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, stated that the Japanese economy would still need its ultra-easy stimulus measure for some more time in order to get rid of deflation.
The pair is expected to find support at 103.67, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 103.51. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 104.13, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 104.44.
USD/CHF
The USD declined 0.11% against the CHF and closed at 0.9161.
The pair is expected to find support at 0.9133, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9121. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9165, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9185.
Amid lack of economic releases from Switzerland today, market sentiments would shift their focus to Wednesday’s Swiss UBS Consumption Indicator.
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Daily Outlook 25-08-2014
Euro (1.3202) has taken a big hit after the Jackson Hole meet as it trades around 1.32. With no sign of strength emergent, it definitely looks destined for our target of 1.31. Resistance at 1.3330-50 and support in 1.3250-25.
Dollar-Yen (104.18) is trading at a 7-month high but looks a bit overstretched now with a short term correction looking probable from 104.50-90. Interestingly,
Euro-Yen (137.55) has been rejected from the upper end of the 3-week range of 135.75-138. A successful break above 138 would signal a rally towards 139.00-25, even 140.
Pound (1.6559) has nearly reached our short term target of 1.6525-1.6470. But any attempt to bounce will face selling pressure from 1.6650-6700.
Aussie (0.9313) remains unchanged and keeps the range of 0.92-0.95 intact. Play the range as long as it remains unbroken with the median line at 0.9350-80.
Gold (1278.771) has bounced slightly from support near 1270 on the weekly and 3-day charts and while that holds we may see some more sessions on the positive side ranging in the 1270-1295 region. A break below 1270 if seen, could take it down to 1260-1250 in the longer term.
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Interesting Facts to Know About Price Action Trading
Price action movement has been proved to be the new judge of market movements. It has been setting a trend in the volatile markets for quite some time. Markets are volatile; they change without warning and can catch you by surprise. Prices quoted also leap and change. There needs to be a mechanism which strikes an even balance between dynamic market conditions and changing prices. Price action is a technical analysis trendsetter which does exactly that; it allows you to feel the movement of the trade and feel its freedom.
These are the four main things you need to keep in mind with price action trading
Price action is not a theory based movement which needs memorizing
Many of you coming over to the ‘price camp’ might have been using a more rigid and rule based trading system than price action movement. All you need to do here is read a few good signals on the price chart. You just need to read the price chart from left to right. Then you are all set to go.
You can apply these signals over a week or over a month. If markets don’t have any significant movement for three days in a stretch, you don’t have to break your head over what is happening. All you need to do is just wait and watch for more action. Henceforth, you simply don’t have to memorize or summarize a set of norms or rules. You just need to have an open mind on rising and falling price signals that is about it.
Price Action is Universal
The pricing analysis is a direct proportional aspect to rising and falling trades. It is a universal aspect which has always worked and will work. The real time speculation happening way back in 1700’s used a similar kind of trading mechanism.
Just because it is stated, that the price action movement works, that simply doesn’t mean that every trade is a winning trade. Even successful traders lose out half of their trades or even more. They follow proper risk management procedures and have a refined sense of when to trade and when not to. This is how they make a lot of money over 90% of the losing traders.
Price action system is not something like gold bars
There are people who are convinced that trading will make them billionaires over night, but it really is not the case! One needs to understand the markets and trade steadily and surely, so that they can manage risk and exposure and even make some profitable trades!!
Similar way, you cannot blindly get caught in the glimpse of price action bars. These are not gold bars. You need to interpret the signals right and keep watching the market movements or trends. These trends keep repeating themselves over a point of time and you make winning trades here when you are fully aware of what you are doing.
Trading changes your overall outlook in life all together
Trading tests your patience like nothing else does. You know you have passed the test when after losing a number of trades, you still do not surrender to madness and anger; yet you remain cool and calm, and even consider carrying on trading. You maintain the same level of enthusiasm and curiosity in trading; losing a couple of trades does not deter you from placing more trades.
http://www.commexfx.com/interesting-facts-to-know-about-price-action-trading/
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Daily Outlook 22-08-2014
EUR / USD
The EUR rose 0.17% against the USD and closed at 1.3280, following upbeat macroeconomic data from Germany.
French manufacturing PMI fell to 15-month low of 46.5 in August, underlying concerns about the economic outlook of the Eurozone’s second largest economy.
In the US, the Kansas City Fed President Esther George, in an interview from the central bank symposium in Jackson Hole, mentioned that there is steady improvement in the US labour market. Also, the Philadelphia Fed President, Charles Plosser, warned that the Fed should not wait too long to raise benchmark rates and should start raising it sooner, while pursuing a gradual approach.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.3252, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3224. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3299, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3318.
Trading trends in the pair today would be mainly determined by the speeches of heads of the Fed and the ECB, in Jackson Hole, scheduled later in the day.
GBP / USD
The GBP fell 0.10% against the USD and closed at 1.6579, after retail sales in the UK grew at the slowest annual rate since November last year.
The UK retail sales volumes rose 0.1% in July, compared to a revised advance of 0.2% in the previous month.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.6561, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.6544. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.6599, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.6620.
Going forward, a speech by the BoE’s Deputy Governor, Ben Broadbent, at the Fed Jackson Hole Symposium, would be closely watched.
USD / JPY
The USD strengthened 0.13% against the JPY and closed at 103.85.
Japan’s supermarket sales in July fell 2.1%, on an annual basis, down for the fourth straight month after posting a 2.8% drop in the previous month.
The pair is expected to find support at 103.61, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 103.42. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 103.98, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 104.16.
USD / CHF
The USD declined 0.22% against the CHF and closed at 0.9115.
the Swiss trade surplus widened to 3.98 billionswiss francs in July, compared to market expectations of a surplus of CHF1.85 billion.
The pair is expected to find support at 0.91, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9086. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9137, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9160.
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What methods are employed for currency forecasting and how is it related to currency trading forex spot rate?
The financial market has become popular due to its vitality and accessibility. But when it comes to trading in different currencies, traders and investors need to grasp the best methods for forecasting currency trading and forex spot rate.
Currency trading forex spot rate is the exchange rate of currencies being traded in the financial markets.
Different methods of currency forecasting
Currency forecasting is essential for determining the forex spot rate in the trading market. Below are the two main methods of currency forecasting:
Technical analysis: A traditional market like the stock market employs this particular method to determine the currency trends of the future. This method relies on price history to predict the future trends. Technical analysis comprises many different methods, which generally rely on the price movements of the past.
Fundamental analysis: taking into account different interest rates and economic reports, this method tries to draw its conclusion from numbers. This is a classic way of currency forecasting. It generally revolves around the fact that no matter what happens in the short tem, eventually all investments will have to follow economic numbers.
Apart from the above mentioned methods, traders follow some other techniques for forecasting the exchange rate:
Time Series Model: As part of the technical analysis process, this model focuses on past behavior and price patterns to determine the trends in future.This model requires data made from price patterns in chronological order
Relative Economic Strength Approach: According to this approach, a strong economic environment and high growth patterns of a country is likely to attract investors into its market. Hence, this method analyzes the growth patterns of different countries in order to forecast the forex spot rate.
Econometric Models: This method collects all different factors that the trader thinks are essential for determining the movement of a certain currency. This helps in creating an econometric model that is based on economic theory. But as the economy is based on different variables hence, the trader can add any factor that he thinks will influence the currency rate in the future.
Purchasing Power Parity (PPP): Owing to its inclusion in different text books, this method has become very popular in the financial market. This method is based on the principle of theoretical Law of One Price that states that identical goods should have one price per country. Hence, the forex spot rate will change according to the inflation in a particular country.
Relation between currency forecasting and forex spot rate
Determining the forex spot rate (exchange rate) is primary for every trading firm and market. Currency trading is all about future trends and patterns. So, it is imperative for every trader to determine the correct forex spot rate so as to reap profits in the future. If something goes wrong in currency forecasting, it would be difficult for the investor or trader to ensure better returns from the foreign market.
However, the co-relation between forecasting and exchange rate cannot be denoted in theory. There are numbers, figures, models, methods and analysis that determine their relation.
Currency trading and forex spot rate are the two most important pillars of the foreign exchange market. Their correct forecasting will determine correct results and huge profits in the future.
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Daily Outlook 21-08-2014
EUR USD The EUR declined 0.47% against the USD and closed at 1.3258. The US Dollar gained ground after the US Fed, in the minutes of its latest policy meeting, highlighted the improvements in the nation’s economy.
In Europe, the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, urged the Euro-zone leaders to come forward and coordinate more closely to repair the “construction flaws” to overcome the debt crisis in the Euro-zone.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.3222, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3196. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3295, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3342. Trading trends in the pair today are expected to be determined by service and manufacturing PMIs from Germany, France as well as the Euro-zone. Investors would also keenly await the Jackson Hole 3-day symposium, which is slated to commence later in the day.
GBP / USD The GBP fell 0.14% against the USD and closed at 1.6596. The greenback strengthened as the minutes of the latest Fed meeting was hawkish. However, the Pound gained earlier after the BoE minutes from its last policy meeting indicated that two policymakers from the rate-setting committee surprisingly voted in favour of a rate hike in August, marking the first split in more than three years.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.6541, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.6506. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.6646, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.6716.
Trading trends in the Pound today would be determined mainly by retail sales data from the UK.
USD / JPY The USD strengthened 0.78% against the JPY and closed at 103.72. Data released early this morning indicated that the manufacturing sector continued to expand in Japan, following a rise to 52.4 in August, markets were expecting it to climb to a level of 51.7.
The pair is expected to find support at 103.19, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 102.51. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 104.25, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 104.65.
USD/CHF The USD rose 0.46% against the CHF and closed at 0.9135. The pair is expected to find support at 0.9108, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9073.
The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9162, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9181. Going forward, market participants would focus on Swiss trade balance, scheduled in a few hours.
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FOREX INFO-TOO MUCH OR TOO LITTLE?
Every trader wants to conquer the world of trading and sit on the throne of FX!
And as much as it is advisable to learn all the basics to FX trading, you need to be able to filter and not over-saturate your brain with all the information out there. Too much information can actually be detrimental to succeed in trading.
There are a few factors which can bewitch you into thinking they are imperative to mastering FX trading, but in actual facts they should be avoided as much as possible.
News And Financial Media
The strongest weapon to influence the traders mind. If the news is negative so is the trader’s mind, if the news is positive so will be the trader’s mind. A positive mind will always perform better, as positiveness reflects in a trader’s strategy and investing decisions.
Don’t forget that main stream media is produced by people that are not traders nor investors; they are just journalists creating content to make news.
News trading can bring substantial profits to traders but it is a very difficult strategy to master, requiring much experience and knowledge; those with less knowledge are bound to make many mistakes when ‘trading the news’ resulting in substantial losses.
The addiction of Screen Watching
Being hooked to the screen 24/7 makes you into a ‘day trading gambler’ even if you don’t want it to. Imagine staring at 20 different charts a day, following the higher time frames and then the lower time frames, trying to decide whether to scalp 10 pips here or 5 pips there, leading to an addictive trading behaviour which results in the spontaneous placement of orders and trades, hoping that the next trade will bring profit and depending on luck! This will be disastrous and is indicative of the gambling behaviour we all spurn.
Too many strategies don’t work!!
With so many trading strategies available, so many ideas and philosophies, and educational webinars about FX trading around, a novice trader is spoilt for choice, but too much choice can be confusing and misleading.
A novice trader should not accumulate trading information from different sources and bundle them all together in his head, as they will lose all direction and defeat the object. A novice trader should choose a source carefully and only when that subject has been mastered should he leap into a new subject. FX knowledge requires patience and planning.
Greed-the force behind FX
Greed is the hunger of trading; the reason why people get involved in the FX markets. Even if a trader ventures into the world of FX trading for the sake of curiosity or simply because it is fashionable, trading is completely capable of bringing out the greedy side in all of us.
We are all capable of promising ourselves that ‘when I make so much etc., I will manage my risk better’ but that is never the case! We are humans and we are guilty of greed, so suddenly we see ourselves in the mindset of risking more than we can afford to lose, and that is where the danger begins. We lose control and the powerful mindset of trading overwhelms us.
Greed should never be the reason why you want to discover FX trading, it should be another reason, such as curiosity or simply an interest in this new industry.
Confidence conquers fear
A trader needs to trust himself and his trading strategy. He needs to be confident with every order he places, he needs to trust his own judgement when making trading decisions, and he needs to exert discipline in his own strategy. Other traders ‘opinions or stories should not count.
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Daily Outlook 20-08-2014
EUR / USD
The EUR declined 0.30% against the USD and closed at 1.3321, after the Eurozone’s current account surplus narrowed in June.
In the US, the consumer price index rose 2.0% in July, matching with market estimates. The housing market recovery is back on track, as the housing starts in the US climbed to 1.093 million units in July, marking its highest level since November 2013
The pair is expected to find support at 1.3292, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3274. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3344, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3378.
Traders would keenly await the release of the Fed’s minutes of its latest policy meeting, scheduled later in the day.
GBP/USD
The GBP fell .62% against the US Dollar and closed at 1.6620, after downbeat inflation data in the UK. On an annual basis, consumer price index in the UK dropped unexpectedly to 1.6% in July, dampening the prospects of a near term interest rate hike.
Meanwhile, gains in the USD were supported by a rise in the US consumer price index and better than expected readings on US building permits and housing starts, all for the month of July.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.6574, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.6534. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.6690, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.6766.
Trading trends in the Pound today are expected to be determined by the Bank of england’s minutes of the latest policy meeting, scheduled to release in a few hours.
USD/JPY
The USD strengthened 0.28% against the JPY and closed at 102.92.
Earlier this morning, data from Japan indicated that adjusted merchandise trade deficit in the nation narrowed to ¥1,23.8 billion in July. Exports were up 3.9% (Y-o-Y) and the imports climbed 2.3% (Y-o-Y) in July.
The pair is expected to find support at 102.65, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 102.33. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 103.15, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 103.33.
Market participants would await manufacturing PMI data, scheduled for release tomorrow.
USD/CHF
the USD rose 0.29% against the CHF and closed at 0.9093, following upbeat economic releases from the US.
The pair is expected to find support at 0.9068, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9041. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.911, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9125.
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The Top 5 visual trading forex software in the market
It goes without saying that traders all over the world rely on different programs and software to analyze, evaluate and predict the various shifts and trends in the market. The software chosen by the trader will determine how the trader trades in the market.
The majority of traders employs the use of tools such as indicators and charts to understand the markets better, so these tools need to be created by the best software in the market; they need to have features and functionalities to meet even the most demanding and savvy trader around.
The following are amongst the top 5 visual trading forex software available in the market:
Tick Trader: Equipped with Visual Algorithm Development, Simulation, Automated Trading, Combined Bars, Back Testing and Live Automated Trading, this software has become a favorite amongst traders. This software provides the trader with different technical analysis data in a visual format, facilitating interpretation.
VT Trader: Being a flagship project of Visual Trading Systems, this software enables the trader to trade directly on different visual charts. This platform is also known for its innovative and customized trading features along with various indicators that allow the trader to speculate and predict market movement. Owing to its amalgamation with the most powerful API, this software gives the traders the flexibility of visual charting. This software can easily be used by both novice and professional traders. Even different corporations involved in forex speculation can also use this platform to forecast the market.
Inside Viewer®: This software is based on insights, providing the trader with different types of data related to the forex market. There are three different insights that are presented by this platform, popularity of currency pairs, deal structure and deal direction. All these insights are related to the trading of different orders and open positions. The trader will receive real time data related to different trades and trends in the market in a visual format, which is easy to understand.
Forex Strategy Builder Professional: Inclusive of data sources, collections, user profiles, multiple strategies, real OOS generating and proper optimization, this platform facilitates trading for the trader. This platform is fast in loading real time data from the market. Traders are impressed with its user-friendly interface and easy navigation facility. The trader can predict the market trends and movements, with the help of visual representation.
FX Synergy: Specially designed by professional traders, FX Synergy is a great visual trade managing platform. Specifically designed for the MT4, this platform has all the functionality required by a trader needs manage and execute trades in the market. Special chart shots provide the trader with a visual representation of different trading data. Integrated news alerts also ensure that the trader is keeping track of all important economic news.
Selecting visual software for trading is not as difficult as you may think. A trader needs to first identify his needs and then choose a platform that most meets these needs. The platform selected needs to be tried and tested before trading real money.
It is always advisable that the trader is armed with knowledge and information about the software he is going to use before trading; as well as having some background knowledge of the FX markets.
http://www.commexfx.com/the-top-5-visual-trading-forex-software-in-the-market/
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Daily Outlook 19-08-2014
The rally in stocks or selloff in bonds didn’t have any discernible effect in the Currencies. Nearly all of the majors except Sterling keep trading in ranges and a breakout is required to shake them out of this sleep.
EUR/USD The pair is expected to find support at 1.3339, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3323. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3386, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3417.Amid a lack of major economic releases from the Euro-region, trading trends in the pair today are expected to be determined by the inflation data from the US, scheduled later in the day.
GBP/USD The pair is expected to find support at 1.6710, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.6698. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.6736, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.6750.Going forward, investors today would look for the UK’s consumer prices data, scheduled in a few hours.
AUD/USD The pair is expected to find support at 0.9317, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9298. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9349, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9362.Going forward, investors would focus on the speech of RBA’s Governor, Glenn Stevens, scheduled to release in the mid-night.
USD/CHF The pair is expected to find support at 0.9039, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9007. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9088, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9105.
USD/CAD The pair is expected to find support at 1.0876, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.0860. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0905, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0918.
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COMMEXFX MT4
The popular MetaTrader, otherwise known as the MT4, is the leading online FX trading platform globally. It was designed to facilitate forex trading, despite its technically advanced features it has a very user-friendly interface with a wide range of powerful unparalleled functions. In fact the simplicity of its functionality allows the CommexFX MT4 to enable traders, both novice and experienced, to master the art of trading and trade to their best advantage.
The CommexFX MT4 allows its clients to access a whole wealth of cutting edge features, such as live-streaming prices, a wide range of charts, ability to place order types and complete management of personal accounts.
The CommexFX MT4 also offers a comprehensive set of Technical Analysis tools, and let’s not forget the favoured MQL4 programing language, enabling the use of Automated trading robots. These enable traders to automate their trades with an automated trading robot that best suits their trading style and strategies. The MQL4 programming language allows the easy creation of EAs and customised technical indicators.
The CommexFX MT4 platform is compatible with all our Mobile Trading Applications and offers an extensive range of mobile trading applications, all with unique features to enhance your trading strategy. The mobile trading platforms are: iPhone, iPad, Blackberry, Android, Windows Mobile and other smartphones.
There is no doubt that the CommexFX MT4 is designed for the modern trader always on the move, able to trade from wherever he is.
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Daily Outlook 18-08-2014
EUR/USD The pair is expected to find support at 1.3367, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3336. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.342, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3442.Going forward, trading trends in the Euro today would be governed by Euro-zone’s trade balance, scheduled in a few hours.
GBP/USD The pair is expected to find support at 1.6694, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.6658. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.6749, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.6768.Amid lack of economic releases from the UK today, trading trends in the Pound today would be governed by global news/events.
AUD/USD The pair is expected to find support at 0.9299, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.928. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9337, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9356.Amid lack of economic releases from Australia today, investors would keenly await tomorrow’s minutes of the latest RBA policy meeting.
USD/CHF The pair is expected to find support at 0.9009, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.8990. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9059, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9090.
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COMMEXFX AFFILIATE
Watch out for the new CommexFX Affiliate program! It is one of the most rewarding ones in the FX industry, with attractive affiliate tools and more importantly, unbeatable commissions and rebates!
The affiliate industry is booming and we want to be part of this so we designed an affiliation program that will lead the way! As the internet becomes more accessible with its new user-friendly products, so does the world of online forex trading. It is not only traders who express an interest in participating in the forex boom, but also those who are interested in earning commission when referring clients and friends!
The CommexFX Affiliate encourages you to direct traffic to us, refer your network of clients and friends to us, and in return we will provide you with the latest marketing tools to enhance your presence in the industry, as well as promising you increased conversions and higher commissions with prompt payout!
As a web Affiliate you will earn commission every time a client has opened an account by clicking on one of the banners on your website. All you need to do is expose our brand to your network of clients and we take care of the rest, from client contact, account opening and management, compliance and back office, as well as superior customer support.
All you have to do is register with us today and you will instantly get paid for referring your clients and friends to us.
Your clients will enjoy the benefits of a true STP/ECN environment as well as the assurance of trading within a CySEC regulated environment.
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Daily Outlook 15-08-2014
GBP/USD managed sharp misfortunes a day prior. In financial news, US Unemployment Claims moved to 311 thousand, above desires. There are no British discharges on Thursday. The UK will discharge Second Estimate GDP on Friday, a key pointer.
AUD/USD: Aussie Continues With Its Gain In The Asian Session , For the 24 hours to 23:00 GMT, the AUD reinforced 0.14% against the USD to close at 0.9318. LME Copper costs declined 0.6% or $39.0/MT to $6886.5/MT. Aluminum costs declined 1.0% or $21.0/MT to $2005.0/MT.
USD/JPY worldwide rating org, Fitch Ratings demonstrated that the Japanese economy is “weathering” the late deals duty climb, further alerted that the compensation development is an imperative component in the country, which has neglected to build convincingly.in the Asian session, at Gmt0300, the pair is exchanging at 102.5, with the USD exchanging tad higher from yesterday’s nearby.
USD/CHF The pair is required to discover help at 0.9039, and a fall through could take it to the following help level of 0.9011. The pair is relied upon to think that its first safety at 0.9091, and an ascent through could take it to the following safety level of 0.9115.
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COMMEXFX LTD
CommexFX Ltd is not just another FX broker, it recognizes that competition is fierce but also challenging. With this in mind CommexFX Ltd sets out to conquer the FX industry by offering its clients the highest quality service, advanced technology trading solutions and personalized support all within the safety and security of a regulated environment.
CommexFX Ltd is an ECN/STP broker based in Cyprus and is regulated by CySEC under license 153/11. Its motto is to exceed in excellence, its bespoke brokerage services are nothing short of transparency and regulation.
The trading conditions offered by CommexFX Ltd are amongst the most respected in the industry. Our spreads are amongst the lowest, there is no Dealing Desk intervention, leverage is flexible, fast execution, market depth of prices, different types of accounts to accommodate the needs of all traders, trading on the go is made possible by a range of trading platforms. Last but not least is the professional multi-lingual support offered around the clock, making the trader feel comfortable at all times.
So it should not come as a surprise that CommexFX Ltd has received many awards from internationally acclaimed bodies, and a number of FX awards adorn the office mantel piece.
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Daily Outlook 14-08-2014
The BOE Governor almost wrecked the Pound when he hosed the shots of a rate trek not long from now and proposed that the pace of rate climb is going to be slower than the business desire. As an immediate result Dollar has discovered some quality.
Euro (1.3357) is stuck in a contracting reach taking a triangular shape, with limits having a go at 1.3450 and 1.3330. We are as of now following for a breakout from the scope of 1.3300-1.3450 that may make colossal moves.
Dollar-Yen (102.58) is exchanging the scope of 101-103 and the extent bound value activity doesn’t look like completion at whatever time soon. Euro-Yen (137.04) has been approaching the upper end of its descending channel on the again of powerless Yen yet the scope of 135.75-138.00 may not break without any significant occasion.
Pound (1.6680) slammed precisely from our safety at 1.6840 to hit a 4 month low at 1.6670, past our target levels of 1.6740-6700. Holding over 1.6660-20, some short blanket may rise however the following significant help comes route deeper around 1.64 levels.
Aussie (0.9297) ricocheted from the long haul help zone of 0.9250-9200 again and may broaden the skip on a break over 0.9310. The likelihood of the scope of 0.92-0.95 breaking any soon looks extremely thin at this minute.
Gold (1311.50) has been firmly gone with little moves in the 1310-1320 district. The 1305 level is going about as a decent backing for the time being keeping in mind that holds, the metal may keep on consolidaing sideways. A tumble to 1300-1290 is still a probability unless we see a break over 1320-1325.
Silver (19.846) keeps on remainning went in the 19.66-20.108 district however it may not enjoy it long to reprieve the 19.6 levels to develop its fall downwards to19-18.5. Gold-Silver proportion (66.046) is taking off high breaking over the 65.7 levels. On the off chance that this proceeds with it might soon focus on 67.5 in the close term. This may demonstrate that Silver may have some room on the drawback given that Gold stays stable.
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COMMEXFX Myfxbook AutoTrade
As the FX trading fever continues to grow, new trading tools are emerging from every corner. Social trading is another of those booming activities and requires very highly advanced trading software. The CommexFX Myfxbook Autotrader is an example of state-of-the art software designed for social trading.
What is social trading I hear you ask? It is a community of traders who follow each other’s trading strategy. The object is for less experienced traders to follow the profitable trading strategy of more experienced and successful traders, achieving a more diversified trading style.
In turn, the successful trader whose trades are being copied, will be rewarded with up to half a pip per standard lot traded by the followers. So it’s basically a win-win situation for all parties involved.
The Autotrader is owned by Myfxbook, and one of its many advantages is that it provides traders with an in-depth analysis and statistics of their trading as it is immediately synchronized to their trading history – free of charge! The CommexFX Myfxbook Autotrader is only available to traders with an existing live account.
With the CommexFX Myfxbook Autotrader, you can also upload trades from your system to your account-all trading history is directly copied from the CommexFX platform to your AutoTrade account to monitor your trading strategy.
Last but not least, it is worth mentioning that the CommexFX Myfxbook Autotrader hand picks the best systems for you, simplifying all social trading activity.
Market Outlook By Commexfx
in Fundamental Analysis
Posted
Daily Outlook 2-09-2014
EUR / USD
The EUR traded lower against the USD and closed at 1.3131, after the German GDP contracted in the second quarter of 2014.
In other economic news, the rate of expansion in Euro-zone manufacturing production eased to a 13-month low in August. The PMI in the Euro-zone dropped to 50.7 in August, compared with 51.8 in July. Moreover, with prospects of more sanctions by EU leaders on Russia for its recent incursion in Ukraine, the Euro is expected to remain under pressure.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.3111, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3100. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.314, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3158.
Going forward, investors would pay attention to a slew of economic releases from the US later in the day.
GBP / USD
The GBP rose 0.13% against the USD and closed at 1.6612.
the UK market PMI edged down in August to 52.5, falling to its lowest level in 14-months, against market expectations for a reading of 55.1 and compared to a reading of 54.8 registered in the prior month. Additionally, data revealed that the UK borrowings rose a total of £3.4 billion in July, the highest in six years.
The pair is expected to find support at 1.6561, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.6537. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.6627, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.6669.
Trading trends in the Pound today are expected to be determined by the PMI construction data from the UK, scheduled in a few hours.
USD / JPY
The USD strengthened 0.18% against the JPY and closed at 104.32. the vehicle sales in Japan eased 5.0% on an annual basis, in August, following a 0.6% rise registered in July. Early morning data indicated that the labour cash earnings in Japan had risen 2.6% in July, compared to a revised 1.0% rise in the previous month, while markets were expecting it to rise 0.9%
The pair is expected to find support at 104.3, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 103.85. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 105.01, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 105.26.
Going forward, investors await services PMI data from Japan, scheduled to release early tomorrow.
USD/CHF
The USD rose 0.07% against the CHF and closed at 0.9195. The Swiss Franc lost ground, after Switzerland’s manufacturing PMI fell to 52.9 in August.
The pair is expected to find support at 0.9183, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9166. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9211, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9222.
Trading trends in the Swiss today are expected to be determined by the Q2 Swiss GDP, scheduled in a few hours.