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Gold will be back with new record

 

Friday, March 25, 2011

 

Gold recovered from the action of profit-taking as investors continued worsening of safe-haven ***ets amid violence Libya, the debt crisis of Europe, and Japan earthquake. Gold yesterday printed a record $ 1,447.35, but the direct action of profit-taking was invaded.

 

U.S. and allied aircraft continue attacks on ground forces as supporters of Qaddafi Muammar Qaddafi to increase attacks in several cities that have mastered the rebels. Portugal is now threatened bailout after Prime Minister Jose Socrates resigned amid EU leaders summit. "Rampant problems in the Middle East and North Africa, high oil prices and euro-zone debt crisis was a factor supporting gold rally," said Gavin Wendt, senior Pty MineLife.

 

Bloomberg surveys show a majority of respondents expect gold will continue rising next week. "Gold prices will rise 19% to $ 1,700 by the end of 2011 as investors seek protection against inflation," said Michael Verhofen, manager of Allianz RCM Comoditiy Fund.

 

Markets are now expecting GDP data and U.S. consumer sentiment. However, gold vulnerable to profit-taking action if investors saw further evidence of economic recovery. Ong Yi Ling, an analyst at Phillip Futures see $ 1420 as a support level, where penetration will open opportunities for further decline.

Aussie Strong Survive Near 35 Year High

 

Friday, March 25, 2011

 

Prices are currently located at 1.0194 level. Australian Dollar is in a position mild correction after rising to a level of 1.0223 ***ociated risk appetite that occurred yesterday, near the high for 35 years in December 2010.

 

"overbought condition shown in the graph per hour, the movement of a bearish correction is still slightly limited by the price action to consolidate in the range of 20 pips since the mid U.S. session, " said Valeria Bednarik, analyst leader of FXstreet.com.

 

Current support level is 1.0160, 1.0110, 1.0070. Current resistance level is 1.0220, 1.0256, 1.0280

Yen Still Surviving on Approximately 81.00

 

Friday, March 25, 2011

 

Currently, the price still at 81.03. No signal from the yen to continue to trade between 80.70 and 81.30 with a loss of direction indicators and moving average which tends to flat on its hourly chart. Graph per 4-hour also looks flat though slightly bearish, with prices still in the flat movement in the SMA-20.

 

"The movement continues to still be happening if the price is below the high at 81.30 as the top of the movement, despite continued consolidation seen with the market looking for direction from the fundamental side, " said Valeria Bednarik, analyst leader of FXstreet.com.

Current support level is 80.70, 80.50 and 80.25. Current resistance level is 81.30, 81.65 and 82.00.

U.S. Labor Sector Recovers, But Manufacturing Slows

 

Initial U.S. jobless claims decreased last week, with an average 4-week fell to its lowest level in more than 2 ½ years, which indicates stability in the labor market recovery.

 

Labor Department reported Thursday that initial claims for unemployment benefits was reduced by 5000 to 382,000 from the previous data is revised upward to 387,000. While the average results of a survey of economists showed a decline to 383,000.

 

At the same time, the Commerce Department also reported U.S. Durable Goods Orders unexpectedly fell in February after showing strengthening in January, which suggests the occurrence of slowing manufacturing activity.

 

Durable Goods Orders fell 0.9% in February compared to the previous month's revised figure rose 3.6%. While some economists predicted increase of 1.1%

European meeting overshadowed Euro

 

Thursday, March 24, 2011

 

The euro is still shadowed by anxiety inability European leaders to agree on solutions to solving the debt crisis. Euro depressed in the Asian session after Moody's cut the credit rating of the Spanish banking system and the resignation announcement of Prime Minister of Portugal. However, the improved performance of the European services sector managed to restore the euro in early London session.

 

"European leaders seem difficult to reach an agreement and now comes the anxiety on the ability of funding some governments in Europe, is negative for the euro," said Tsutomu Soma, a dealer Okasan Securities. Jean-Claude Juncker, chairman of euro zone finance ministers, yesterday pointed out the German objections to the proposal to inject capital bailout permanent facility to be established 2013. German Chancellor Angela Merkel was urged to change the payment mechanism of the European Stability, according to German government officials. langsungkan European leaders meeting in Brussels two days, investors may look forward to the results of the meeting which was released Friday night, 25 March 2011

Crude oil rocketed to $ 106 Per Barrel

 

Thursday, March 24, 2011

 

Crude oil futures continue to skyrocket through the level of $ 106 per barrel Thursday, as investors continued to worry about the war in Libya and tensions in the Middle East.

 

Crude oil for May delivery rose 60 cents to $ 106.35 per barrel in electronic trading on Globex.

 

Market participants continue to monitor developments in the Middle East, especially in Libya where the allied forces began to enter combat troops led by Colonel Muamar Gaddafi of Libya and tensions in several regions in the Middle East such as Yemen, Siriah and Israel.

 

Tensions in the Middle East is expected to threaten the world's oil supply.

Gold Steady in Europe

 

Thursday, March 24, 2011

 

 

Gold prices held steady Thursday after concerns rose over European debt crisis and tensions in the Middle East raised investor interest in buying gold.

 

Spot gold moved up $ 1.05 to as low as $ 1,437.25 per ounce, after targeting $ 1,440.90 in the previous session, slightly below the record high of $ 1,444.40 that occurred on March 7.

 

U.S. Gold futures moved slightly at $ 1,437.50.

 

Spot gold moved down 0.3% to as low as $ 37.24 after reaching a high level for 31 years at $ 37.40 Wednesday.

Sentiment for gold helped by lower home-sales in the U.S. that could slow economic recovery and sparked a discussion that the central bank may continue to loosen monetary policy, reversed course purchases of bonds worth $ 600 billion.

Sterling Down, Crop Early Strength

 

Thursday, March 24, 2011

 

Sterling is still moving ranging from the mid U.S. session, trading between 1.6225 and 1.6265, after the drastic decline of the 1.6380/1.6400 area on Wednesday, pressured by the BoE meeting.

 

During the Asian session (this morning), Sterling rose about 40 pips to 1.6265 area, but can not sustain the strengthening and back down, largely due to the EUR / USD. Sterling is currently trading at 1.6235 area, barely changed since opening. Yesterday was the low level of around 1.6220, which should be seen support that limit at the same level.

Commodity News (Metal)

 

LME Metals Can Suffer in Portugal

 

Wednesday, March 23, 2011

 

LME metals mostly creeping higher with China's offer that comes to copper and zinc, but the market could be hit if the euro weakened further forward the budget debate Portugal in the global day later, said a senior Hong Kong trade.

 

"That Portugal is an overhang so that the euro holding us back and we could see selling for a while London is open," he said.

 

Portugal Prime Minister Jose Socrates could resign if elections savings later rejected by opposition parties, said the WSJ. Results will be market bond issues and put the euro under pressure, potentially hurting the copper which often tracks the EUR / USD. LME 3-month copper at $ 9,516 / ton, up $ 31 with 797 lots

European Exchange Will Open Low

 

Wednesday, March 23, 2011

 

European stock markets will open lower Wednesday as high oil prices and continuing unrest in the Middle East burden of risk appetite, says Jonathan Sudaria at Capital Spreads.

 

How London's FTSE 100 down 22 points at 5741, Frankfurt's DAX down 17 at 6764, and the Paris CAC-40 dropped 15 in 3878. Carefully add to the atmosphere of increasing anxiety about the euro-zone debt crisis, said Sudaria, as Portugal prepares to vote on saving measures on Wednesday.

 

To release the data today, the minutes of the BOE England and Budget will be released at 0930 GMT and 1230 GMT, respectively. U.S. new home sales at 1400 GMT, and euro zone consumer confidence at 1500 GMT.

Trichet's ECB Comments-Limit Correction In Euros

 

Wednesday, March 23, 2011

 

Toward noon the euro lies below the peak level in 4 ½ months on Wednesday related to concerns about debt problems in Portugal and Ireland have lessened interest in this single currency.

 

EURUSD wipe out gains against the greenback earlier disesi primarily driven by investor speculation that Irish banks will have difficulty in paying its debts.

 

"Concerns over debt crisis of the region re-sticking," said Andrew Wilkinson, senior market analyst at Interactive Brokers Group LLC, Connecticut. "European Central Bank is ready to raise rates, and it adds pressure on European policymakers to immediately improve the mechanism of the bailout."

 

Comments from ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet and other ECB policy makers, who confirmed their readiness for immediate action to overcome the pressure of inflation, has given euro support in the last few sessions and restrict Euro deeper correction.

Commodity News (Oil)

 

Libya and the Oil Price Crisis

 

Wednesday, March 23, 2011

 

CRISIS Libya continues. Upon the mandate of the United Nations (UN) to protect civilians, allied forces consisting of French, Italian, Spanish, English, United States, and Norway to attack Libya.

 

The attack is widely condemned because of civilian casualties has exacerbated the perception or psychology of the market against the risk of oil supply shortage. This is pushing oil prices back up. Brent oil price rises of around USD113 per barrel on Saturday (03/19/2011) to around USD117 per barrel on Monday (3/21/2011). Establishment of world oil prices are very sensitive to geopolitical factors in the form of crisis or political turmoil that hit the state security and the region including Libya minyak.Tak producer. Judging from the content of the natural wealth of oil and gas, Libya is a country that is relatively very rich.

 

Naturally, if the various parties began to suspect there is some hidden agenda of the coalition attack tersebut.Selain to protect civilians from m***acre of followers of Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, it is not impossible also tucked a view to one day be able to 'control' the Libyan oil and gas. 'Control' here does not necessarily mean 'master and Libyan oil and gas memiliki'cadangan directly, but could be in the form of encouraging the formation of government in Libya that can' follow 'the interests of these countries. In terms of energy security, countries such as Italy, Spain, and France are countries with oil and gas reserves in the bowels of the earth is very minimal.

 

They certainly need such a long-term ***urance that the Libyan oil would not be 'diverted' to other countries, for example to China or India are also very thirsty on long-term supply security. Currently China and India have entered into Libya through their state-owned oil and gas. Because spikes are very large energy requirements, particularly China, there was intense competition in the 'grab' the world's energy sources, especially this migas.Saat has penetrated China's state-owned oil and gas exploration and exploitation activities in some 70 countries around the world, including Libya. According to BP Statistics 2010, Libya has proven reserves of natural resources (proven reserves) the crude oil is relatively very large.

 

Libyan oil reserves of about 44 billion barrels with production around 1.7 million barrels per day. Reserves to production ratio (R / P ratio) to about 71. This means that if if Libya did not find new reserves, new Libyan oil reserves run out about 71 years! With the price of USD100 per barrel oil, the value of property / ***ets of USD4.400 billion Libyan oil. While the wealth of Libya's gas reserves of 54 trillion cubic feet (tcf), with a value of about $ 500 miliar.Dengan so, the value of the wealth / ***et Libyan oil and gas reserves to approximately USD4.900 billion.

 

This is certainly an extraordinary number of other countries that can make the bait look Libyan oil and gas. Compare with Indonesia, which only has proven reserves of about 4 billion barrels of oil, the R / P Ratio 12 years, with the value of reserves / oil ***ets of about USD400 billion. 113 tcf of gas reserves worth USD1.000 miliar.Total ***et value / Indonesian oil and gas reserves to approximately USD1.400 billion. Although smaller than the value of Libyan oil and gas ***ets, the value of Indonesian oil and gas ***ets will be able to give optimum benefit to the people if the management and ownership status (ownership) are legally clear so they can dimonetasi. Should, problem management and ownership status of ***ets / reserves of proven oil and gas should be clarified in the Act (the Act) Oil and Gas that is currently being revised in the House of Representatives.

 

The problem is, with the increasing need for energy, especially oil, can not be avoided that the future trend of oil prices will continue to rise. Oil and Gas is an energy source that can not be renewed and very strategic. With Libya's current crisis, there are about 1.2 million barrels per day of oil production lost from the Libyan market. If the Libyan crisis continues, the world oil market is permanently threatened shortage of supply. Although Saudi Arabia has agreed to replace the shortage of supplies from Libya, the market is difficult to fully convinced that prices are still perched above USD100 per barrel. Whereas before the crisis, in November 2010 the price of oil is still about $ 80 per barrel.

 

Especially if the current crisis hit Libya, Yemen, Bahrain, and Syria and then spread to the Arab Saudi.Tentu world oil prices will further rise and could lead to crises of oil / energy crisis that is very powerful since Saudi Arabia is the country's largest oil exporter in the world. With the political turmoil that occurred in the Area of ​​North Africa and the Middle East today, the risk of high oil prices will continue to haunt the world economy, including Indonesia. Because oil production is very low, only about 900,000 barrels per day, whereas in 1999 was about 1.5 million barrels per day, while demands for fuel oil (BBM) in the country continue to rise, no doubt that rising world oil prices turned out to give negative impact on the state budget and on the national economy.

 

Because oil production is very low, every time there is an increase in world oil prices will impact the addition of the budget deficit. With government policies that tend to do the 'omission' or 'do nothing' this time, where the government has said it will not raise fuel prices fuel while planning restrictions are also allowed to float, the prospects for oil and gas industry and national economy forward increasingly overwhelmed by the uncertainty (uncertainty) . Yet the problems faced are very clear.

 

Low oil production problems are due to mismanagement. This is rectified by immediately replacing oil and gas law because this law has caused the position of oil and gas investment in Indonesia was one of the worst in the world (Global Petroleum Survey 2010, the Fraser Institute of Canada). In the short term, production Cepu have a chance to be raised significantly. It takes coordination and hard work of the relevant parties. While the issue of fuel management and pricing should not be solved by herding people to move away from oil (premium) to oil (pertamax) as the discourse so far, but by diversifying into non-oil such as the gas (CNG) to accelerate infrastructure development.

 

If it is urgent, the standard solution is to raise fuel prices in a reasonable amount of such increase of 1,000 per liter, accompanied by a promise to the people that fund the subsidy savings would be used to build transportation infrastructure.

Japan Economic News

 

Japan Recovery Charges may Reaches $ 300 Billion

 

The Japanese government estimates the total amount of damage caused by the earthquake that hit northeastern Japan this month will reach 15 trillion to 25 trillion yen, equivalent to $ 185-308 billion), the Nikkei newspaper reported Wednesday.

Economy Minister Kaoru Yosano will show these estimates in a meeting menter-minister cabinet which will be held on Wednesday, the Nikkei said, without citing a source involved.

 

This will exceed 10 trillion yen cost of the damage caused by the earthquake in Kobe in 1995, said the newspaper.

 

The estimate will include the improvement of roads, housing, factories and other infrastructure but not including the fall in economic activity resulting from damage to the energy sector and the nuclear accident in Fukushima, the newspaper said it again.

 

The government will use these estimates to design a recovery plan and emergency budget to fund the cost of recovery, the Nikkei said.

European stocks firmer to fourth day

 

Stock exchanges in Europe continues to move higher on Tuesday, to continue strengthening into 4 consecutive days, with stocks led by financial and insurance sectors. While the German company's shares retailer, Metro AG, slipped after saying that the turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa, plus the Japanese earthquake and the Euro zone debt problem is still not finished may hamper the company's earnings target.

Eurostoxx 50 index gain 0.7%, while the French CAC index rose 0.48% and Germany's DAX index moved relatively flat. In Britain, the FTSE index rose about 0.4% within one hour after opening.

 

Investor sentiment has recently improved as the progress made in the handling of the damage to the reactor at the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant.

European Exchange Will Open Slightly Lower

 

Tuesday, March 22, 2011

 

European Stock Markets to be opened slightly lower Tuesday, with traders still see the effects of earthquake of Japan in global growth, said Jonathan Sudaria at Capital Spreads.

 

How London's FTSE 100 fell five points in 5781, the Frankfurt DAX down 18 at 6798, and the Paris CAC-40 dropped one in 3903.

 

Sudaria also noted the large amount of debt the Japanese seem to be required to be paid and will push debt to GDP ratio well above the level of 200%.

 

No data for euro zone primary today, but in the UK, CPI and net public sector borrowing at 0930 GMT, while the CBI industrial trends at 1100 GMT. In the U.S., house price index at 1400 GMT.

Commodity News (Oil)

 

Interference due to the UN World, Oil Up 1%

 

Tuesday, March 22, 2011

 

World crude oil prices in the U.S. rose 1% on illegal trade on Monday (22 / 3). Markets worry about the UN intervention in Libya will spread to other OPEC member countries so that disrupt world oil supplies.

 

Brent crude rose U.S. $ 0.67 (0.59%) to U.S. $ 114.6 per barrel for delivery in May Brent oil prices touched U.S. $ 116.2 per barrel. For crude sweet crude rose U.S. $ 0.15 (0.15%) to 102.48 per barrel for April delivery.

 

In trading on Friday last week the two types of crude oil failed to achieve the increase. Because the market worried about the nuclear crisis in Japan that has spread to many cities.

 

Despite Monday's trading volume is stronger but still well below average. This trend continued last week that still show the uncertainty of the market and declining investor interest.

 

"The key is to Saudi Arabia and Iran to stay level-headed so that win situation. It's important for now but if things get worse, you see a premium in the Middle East is rapidly changing," said Jonathan Barratt, Managing Director Comodity Broking Services.

Korean Economic News

 

South Korean Real Estate Development High prices slide

 

Tuesday, March 22, 2011

 

Secondary Development of South Korea has been overshadowed by the severe financial problems due to a prolonged slump in local housing markets, the trade ***ociation said Tuesday.

 

More than a quarter of the 100 local builder above, including Lig E & C Co., which is placed under court receivership or workout program on Tuesday, according to the Construction ***ociation of Korea (CAK).

 

The biggest reason for their cash shortage protracted downturn in the local property market which began in the 2008 financial crisis, the ***ociation.

 

Only 1333 new homes sold in January, accounting for 8 percent from the comparable figure last year, according to the Korea Housing ***ociation.

 

Also responsible for the credit crisis is the fact that they were too focused on the apartment building, unlike the top 10 local artisans who have a diversified business portfolio of engineering for industrial plants, industrial sources said.

 

In addition, the decline in orders from the public sector to make the financial situation of middle-builders' bleak, says CAK.

 

Total orders from the public sector came to ₩ 38.24 trillion (U.S. $ 34.1miliar) in 2010, down 34.6 percent from a year earlier.

 

The number of builders who go belly-up last year reached 306, up 26.9 percent of 241 in 2009, according to CAK

Japan Economy News

 

Tuesday, March 22, 2011

 

Yen slips widely by anxiety intervention

 

Yen falls against the dollar for a second day on Monday, with investors wary central bank sells more to weaken the Japanese currency, although the market may test the resolve of authority 'by pushing the currency back to the level of 80 yen.

 

Traders said the discovery Friday is coordinated by the big banks the world center - the first such step since 2000 - has been successful to date, as the dollar stabilized around 81 yen and the volatility of the yen retreated from recent highs this.

 

In the near term, analysts said 80 to 80.85 region could function as a support for the dollar against the yen, and fell below could see renewed intervention by the central bank. On the upside, resistance is seen around 82 yen, a post-intervention high set on Friday.

 

"The market is certainly very wary about the central bank in the sidelines," said Dean Popplewell, head of currency strategy at Oanda in Toronto.

 

"The market was also questioned who would intervene if the yen does not begin to appreciate it, whether it will be the Bank of Japan's own or other interventions will be coordinated, but at this time., no one willing to mengujnya," he added.

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Japan Quake Has Limited Impact on Asia

 

Monday, March 21, 2011

 

The recent earthquake that hit Japan is estimated to have a limited impact on financial markets neighboring Asian countries, the report showed Monday.

 

According to the report of Standard Chartered, rapid response to stabilize Japan's financial system after the earthquake March 11 and a relatively small investment in Asia will help other neighboring countries to reduce the impact of the likely impact of natural disasters.

 

Loans from Japan's banks are unlikely to be bothered either, the report said.

 

Step by Bank of Japan to inject large amounts of liquidity after the earthquake to help shore up the nation crippled financial system and keep the money channel is open for other Asian countries like Thailand, Malaysia and South Korea, he said.

 

But each country may feel the impact of natural disasters that differ from the third largest in the world economy.

 

Philippines may face a decline in semiconductor exports to Japan due to weak demand from countries faced with tougher economic conditions after the quake, the report showed.

 

Indonesia, meanwhile, can enjoy more profits by exporting raw materials needed to rebuild the affected country, he added.

European stock markets soared Monday, Japan's nuclearplants power to improve

 

Monday, March 21, 2011 16:31

 

European stock markets soared Monday, with the situation in Japan's nuclear power plants Fukushima Daiichi continue to improve, and disposal operations in Germany Deutsche Telekom T-Mobile U.S. AT & T encourages the telecommunications sector.

 

Over the weekend, Japan's leaders voiced optimism that the worst of the nuclear crisis ended, raising hopes that the plants attacked by the cooling system can be restored.

 

It has provided support for risky assets. However, investors still have to assess the potential impact of geopolitical uncertainties, with the focus now has shifted from Japan to Libya as an ally under attack UN noted Ian Williams, strategist at Altium Securities.

 

However, "the meaning of Libya impact on the wider global economy is far smaller, beyond the inevitable impact on oil prices, so the new week will begin with a sustainable recovery of risk appetite," added Williams.

 

At 0915 GMT, the European Stoxx 600 index rose 1.5% at 271.58. London's FTSE 100 index 1.1% higher at 5778.97, Frankfurt's DAX rose 2.2% to 6809.75, and the Paris CAC-40 was 1.8% higher at 3879.98.

 

Telecommunications sector posted the strongest gains after Germany's Deutsche Telekom agreed to sell units of its T-Mobile U.S. AT & T Inc. and worth $ 3.9 billion stock deal. Deutsche Telekom shares jumped 12%, while fellow Vodafone Group rose 4.2% and France Telecom added 3.3%. Europe's Stoxx 600 Telecommunications Index climbed 3.8%.

 

"The company of this nature on this scale could provide a boost to asset risk in the short term because of the negative news that has dominated the headlines recently has subsided," said Gary Jenkins, an analyst at Evolution Securities.

 

Elsewhere, insurance stocks posted strong gains after Swiss Re, the estimate is lower than expected claims of $ 1.2 billion from Japan's earthquake and tsunami. Swiss Re shares rose 2.1% while peer Munich Re added 2.2%. Europe's Stoxx 600 insurance index rose 1.6%.

 

Despite the positive tone, the Middle East and North Africa to prevent further crises flows into risky assets. Over the weekend, Western forces attacked Libya, the enforcement of UN resolutions aimed at stopping attacks against civilians to suppress resistance against the regime of Moammar Gadhafi long.

 

Libya's main news sent crude prices higher and sparking fears that expensive oil could derail global economic growth. At 0915 GMT, Nymex April crude oil futures rose $ 1.55 at $ 102.62 per barrel.

 

Looking to the economic agenda that day, the scheduled release of some data from the UK or Europe. In the U.S., however, home sales data for February at 1400 GMT.

The European Exchange Opens Higher

 

Monday, March 21, 2011 14:24

 

European stock markets will open higher, following overnight gains in Asia after progress has been made in Japan's nuclear crisis over the weekend.

 

"It is enough to give support to risk assets so far," said RBC Capital Markets. According to IG Markets Spreadbetter FTSE 100 rose 36 points in 5754, the DAX 65 in 6729, the CAC-40 rose 32 points in 3842.

 

Despite a positive opening, attack allies in Libya is likely to add some pressure on the market with crude oil prices rose above $ 102 per barrel.

 

No major regional economic figures for today, so the market will focus on U.S. existing home sales (existing home sales) at 1400 GMT.

Crude oil surge by $ 2/Bbl After Libya Air Strikes

 

Monday, March 21, 2011 14:59

 

Crude futures surged as much as $ 2 per barrel during morning trading in Asia after the UN sanctions air strikes pounded the Libyan air defenses during the weekend, prompting fears that a prolonged conflict could cause oil supply disruptions.

 

"Production Libya likely will be offline for some time, and the last UN action would only alter the view that if they resulted in regime change - and that certainly would be a bearish development," said analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in a note to investors.

 

Libya exported about 1.2 million barrels per day of crude oil and natural gas last year, consists of more than 5% of imports for the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, according to the International Energy Agency.

 

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for April delivery traded at $ 103.05 a barrel at 0722 GMT, up $ 1.98 in the Globex electronic session and a session high of $ 103.35 per barrel. May Brent crude on London's ICE Futures exchange rose $ 1.79 to $ 115.72 per barrel.

 

Ongoing political unrest in Yemen, Bahrain and Syria on the weekend continued to rattle investors' fears of supply issues, adding to bullish oil price.

 

"For now, we remain comfortable with our projected base case prices ease throughout the second quarter averaged $ 105 per barrel, but the possibility that long-term security risk may have increased, and that the (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) still have way to go to prevent the tightening of supply in the second half of this year, "said JPMorgan analyst.

 

Libyan crude oil production is at its minimum, only provide a few refineries in the country, an analyst at Eurasia Group said in a note. Regardless of which side wins the conflict, the possibility of oil exports will be offline for an extended period, either because of international sanctions or the logistics to get exports to world markets, they said.

 

"It seems that Libya has the price of supply disruptions, but the response 'scorched earth' of the Gadaffi may cause interference Mediterranean boat trip," analysts led by Stephen Schork said in a note.

 

Nymex reformulation blendstock for April - the benchmark gasoline contract - rose 536 points to $ 3.0030 a gallon, while April heating oil traded at $ 3.0674, 431 points higher.

 

ICE for April was changing hands at $ 980.00 per metric ton, up $ 7.75 from the settlement Friday.

Oil

 

Crude Oil Back Positive After Down to $ 97

Thursday, March 17, 2011 14:53

 

Crude futures recovered from a sharp drop below $ 97 per barrel Thursday and returned to positive path, after Japan's largest utility said it hoped to restore power to nuclear power Fukushima Daiichi affected by the earthquake in a few hours.

 

Feedback Tokyo Electric Power Co. '(9501.TO) close to reactor coolant at risk krisis help calm the market, previously confused with the statement that top U.S. officials responsible for the regulation of nuclear power which signals the possibility of atomic krisis worse than previously thought .

 

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in April was trading at $ 98.60 a barrel at 6:58 PM local time, up $ 0.62 on the Globex electronic session.

 

That represents a major recovery after the offense level of support for $ 97 within the first hour of trading pushed the major liquidation of ownership, driving the front month contract to an intraday low $ 96.60 a barrel at 22:53 GMT local time.

 

Oil Brent crude on London's ICE Futures exchange for May rose $ 0.70 to $ 111.30 per barrel, after earlier hitting an intraday low $ 109.45.

 

The oil market was watching developments in Japan as the country's third largest oil user after the United States and China, consumed about 4.4 million barrels of crude a day.

 

Traders sell crude oil futures in recent days, given the lack of clarity about how big the impact of the earthquake and tsunami last Friday for an economic slowdown in Japan and for how long.

 

"The reaction from the oil market to the Japanese earthquake excessive, in our view, given the increasing demand for oil due to the potential permanent loss of nuclear capacity far exceeds the short-term negative impact on demand," said Amrita Sen, an oil analyst at Barclays Capital.

 

Petroleum Association of Japan said Thursday that the processing of crude oil in the country is expected to recover to 3.4 million barrels per day by the end of the month, from 2.7 million barrels per day immediately after the quake.

 

Which has allowed the traders to measure the output lost at 600,000 barrels per day, although Japan may will require additional volumes of fuel to digunakan dalam power to ensure thermal coal supply while the damaged and nuclear power plants offline.

 

The PAJ said it had canceled 650 000 kiloleters exports of oil products after the earthquake, and that it also may need to import 450 000 kiloleters at the end of the month to help close the gap in domestic supply.

 

Refiners in South Korea are among those hiking exports to Japan. S-Oil Corp. (010950.SE) said Thursday it plans to supply 2.4 million barrels of oil products to the Japanese refining industry. Japan has also formally asked Indonesia to send additional liquefied natural gas and crude oil.

 

Support for the oil price is also from the Middle East and North Africa. Bahraini security forces to crack down on protesters on Wednesday to expel them from the center of the capital Manama, and imposed a curfew in many towns, as the island kingdom effort that seeks to end the demonstrations weekly.

 

Libya has intensified between the rebels and the approach of the ruling regime. Moammar Gadhafi troops attacked the last major town held by rebels in western Libya and expand the area of ​​rebels near the eastern capital of Benghazi, because the government gained momentum in its efforts to reassert control.

 

However, this is not a view that makes the sale of oil-corrected excess.

 

This is a sign of how the commodity markets continued to nervously, oil fell sharply after Gregory Jaczko, chairman of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, said the pool of fuel in reaktor fourth nuclear power plant in Fukushima Daiichi in Japan have lost all or most of the water and the radiation level is "very high. "

 

Given the risks, Jaczko said the U.S. would recommend "larger radius" for the evacuation of the Japanese.

 

Jim Ritterbusch, president of advisory firm Ritterbusch & Associates oil trade, believes that the decline in oil futures still has some way to go, perhaps to $ 95/bbl, as global equity markets fell following the bad news continues to flow out of Japan.

 

Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 242.12 points lower on Wednesday, or 2.04%. In Asia on Thursday, the Nikkei Stock Average fell 2.2%, Australia's S & P / ASX 200 flat, and South Korea's Kospi Composite down 0.7%.

 

Nymex reformulated gasoline blendstock for April - the benchmark gasoline contract - rose 72 points to $ 2.8509 a gallon, while April heating oil traded at $ 3.0100, 128 points higher.

 

ICE gasoil for May switch to $ 958.50 per metric ton, down $ 0.50 from the position Wednesday.