JimJamBonks

It's unfortunate Trott uses Oron. It doesn't state it on the Oron site but even premium users have a 20Gb download limit per 72 hours. The XLT Forex course there amounts to 100 files averaging 600Mb each so thats ~60Gb. Don't expect to get it all done in an afternoon unless you're prepared to open up several new 30 day premium accounts.

A 1.1Gb single file download from a free filehost - that's a first for me. Much easier than messing about with 20 parts.

I notice that the file list is missing Part 12. :(

trader.john - When looking at levels that don't have an apparently obvious origin, I look for the pattern shown below to help me define it. In fact I've suggested it on some of my charts posted earlier in this thread. Basically, looking at the chart below you can see price dropped down to point 1 with some obvious rejection, moved up to point 2 before making a brief touch back into the origin area at point 3 before making the larger advance. I basically used the distance between 1 and 3 to "suggest" the origin area. I'd like to say this was 100% methodical but I'm afraid there is still some art to it - and it goes without saying it is by no means foolproof, it's merely a price action suggestion and as you can see when price eventually did return it fell straight through the top of the level to test the bottom. http://img29.imageshack.us/img29/6079/23062011gbpusddailylong.jpg

I've not been trading much this week but here's a daily level that I had been looking at that finally triggered today. Taking a trade like this is a bit scary because price has been falling out of the sky over the last couple of weeks - but it's got to stop somewhere... The black and red lines show the entry, stop & take profits - though I doubt whether I'll hold out for that upper supply level and more likely I'll look to take something out of it at 2 x risk - assuming it ever gets up that far. http://img31.imageshack.us/img31/6079/23062011gbpusddailylong.jpg

It is, but bear in mind that larger timeframe demand zone has been has already seen a reaction and the nature of price is that it will bounce fractally between pockets of supply & demand as it charts its course up and down.. I'm not necessarily suggesting that price would make a huge move down from that zone and in fact recent price action congesting just below the yellow marked area has ruled it out of a trade for me on the 60min chart. But all that said I suspect there may still be sufficient supply in that area to afford a short off a lower time frame with our wholesale/retail mindset to the fore.

Aah right. That's pesky off-exchange, over-the-counter, non-regulated market maker pricing for you. ;)

The USDCHF 240min short I mentioned in post #221 has finally met its first target for a 2:1 reward/risk profit. I've now moved the stop to guarantee me a 1:1 profit on the second half of the position and we'll see what happens if it ever gets to the bottom target. This was a nice example of just letting a trade run its course - let it win or let it lose. As it happens it came within about 5 pips of being stopped out twice. http://img339.imageshack.us/img339/9158/17062011usdchf240minsho.jpg

GBPUSD 60min chart. Worthwhile keeping an eye on this. It's a fresh supply level which had a good, quick drop away after the rally-base-drop which was in line with the recent downward structure and the lower end of the zone is at the big '00' level. Also it's that bit higher on the curve than the immediate high (which could also prove profitable). Depending on how price actually approaches/enters the zone will hopefully determine whether it's worth a go. http://img580.imageshack.us/img580/7121/17062011gbpusd.jpg

As a matter of interest, has anybody actually tried using the XLT Probability Enhancer Scoring System to actually filter trades? I'm aware of them, of course, but I can't pretend I'm methodical about applying the score result as a rule to enter. I'm very aware that I'm still quite discretionary about my trading. Now discretion isn't necessarily a bad thing but it doesn't help new traders who have little to build discretion upon...I'm particularly mentioning this now based on Sam's recent article "What Traders Can Learn From Women" . http://www.tradingacademy.com/lessons/20110614/featured_article.htm

Hi Hedgehog. Sorry to pick on you - I'm not trying to be cruel, honest ;) With respect to that CADJPY trade. Did you just enter it this morning? If so, I'm interested to hear your thoughts on that level not being a fresh one (it touched yesterday) and how far price reacted when it last touched the zone because to me the demand zone has about a 1:1 relationship with its nearest supply zone. I'm not saying it's wrong - there's no such thing as 'wrong' just interested to hear your thoughts out loud. http://img16.imageshack.us/img16/1777/17062011cadjpy240min.jpg

EURUSD Long trade 120min shows demand zone. You don't want to be shorting into that. http://img228.imageshack.us/img228/6714/16062011eurusd120min.jpg 5min chart shows a couple of bounces off the lows into the meat of the longer timeframe demand zone. Entered long at close of first bull candle following US news. These are not picture perfect entries, but as Sam Seiden himself says, don't just be expecting perfect setups. The principles of buying dips into demand and selling pushes into supply are sound so long as the price action before it suggests a favourable profit potential. http://img405.imageshack.us/img405/4194/16062011eurusd5minlong.jpg

Seems Sam has cancelled his webinar today - though that's not unusual for him to be honest. In the meantime I hope some of you guys are getting on the back of some of these moves off demand for the EURUSD, GBPUSD & AUDUSD.

The reason for looking for longs was mentioned in the text, namely that the AUDUSD seemed to be at a longer timeframe demand zone. Price was ugly though so there was no obvious swing trade long entries that I could see. So I was looking for short-term demonstrations of demand and the setup shown seemed to be an example of that to me. Had price gone all the way back up to the area where my target 2 line is marked then I may have been looking for a short. Essentially it's about wholesale & retail. Never sell after a move down in to a demand zone and never buy after a move up into a supply zone. Now as for the concept of trend.. Well, as Sam Seiden himself constantly says. 'Where does a down trend end and an up trend begin? At an area of higher time demand - and vice versa". I find the idea of 'trend' tends to confuse things. I prefer just to look for obvious zones in the trading & higher timeframes and then look for wholesale opportunities to buy or sell that appear to have good profit potential. Even better if there's a price action trap their to lure the retails traders in on the wrong side of the market.

Had it stuttered and congested a lot then I probably wouldn't have taken it. The fact that price fell down to the zone cleanly suggested that if price were to move up from the demand zone then there was little supply to stop it getting up to my initial target. There's no gauarantees of course, all I'm trying to do is find areas that appear to offer decent profit to risk potential and then work enough of those opportunities over time to make the numbers work in my favour. I try to let individual losses just roll off my back. I'm not concerned about good setups going bad. I'm more concerend about getting into bad trades or managing them badly because of my own ******ity - that is an ongoing process. ;)

I didn't have to opportunity to entertain the possibility of the Aussie re-enter because I was already distracted the EURJPY short shown below. The second half of that AUDUSD closed at just above breakeven but the first half got 2:1 so it was 1% profitable overall. I'm just got out of this EURJPY short at 2.5% profit. It was a slight variation on the entry theme as I didn't get in at the zone but at the close of the candle marked with the red arrow. http://img694.imageshack.us/img694/39/16062011eurjpy5minshort.jpg

Another trade on the go. This time an AUDUSD based on the 5min. The AUDUSD was coming into a really quite ugly area of price action demand on the longer timeframes so I was looking for a sign of any shorter-term demand areas setting up. See the chart as price had moved up from the lows and then see how the candle marked with a thick black arrow just pulled back and briefly touched the area near the low and then pulled away quite quickly. This is a pattern of action I look for and it helps me define the depth of the zone. After this the move up I was simply waiting to see how price action played out to revisit the area. As it happened price moved quickly down to the area without any obvious opposing supply 'speedbumps' leaving good profit potential of 2:1 so I went long at 1.0519 with stop at 1.0508. 1st target was reached just before opposing supply level at 1.0540. Stop is now at breakeven and second half target sits at 1.0569. http://img199.imageshack.us/img199/3710/16062011audusd5minlong.jpg

Yeah - sorry about the size of the charts. That's the biggest I can get them whilst having them sit easily within the forum format. I did consider the lower level you mention but I also figured the 15 min level had relatively good shape and a nice, quick rally away from it. Also the drop into the area earlier today was sharp and looked promising. As it happens that level gave about 30 pips from about a 20 pip zone. I guess I may have been a bit too greedy with what was on offer but looking back on it, it still looks like a good trade that just didn't work - and I can live with that. :)

This is the end result of the EURJPY trade posted earlier. I decided to brave the US CPI news and let the trade ride it. Took a 1:1 1st half profit in the news aftermath and hung on to the 2nd half in the hope it might make it but in the end it was stopped out so trade ended up breakeven across both halves.. I suspect the EURJPY may well take a kick up off the level below my 15min entry - but I didn't take it... The USDCHF 240min short trade setup posted earlier actually triggered and is currently in play and about 20 pips in profit... The issue of news is an interesting one. I generally try to find trades and then let them run regardless of what news is happening (except NFP & FOMC, ECP BoE interest rate announcements). Needless to say ignoring news is easier on longer timeframes but the idea is to have a plan to find setups & then let them run to a conclusion based on the original setup's stop loss & profit objectives. There's no way of getting optimum exits every time and I generally find that if I 'over manage' my trades on small timeframes then I make a mess of them - far better just to trust the original premise and reap the combined benefits in the long run. http://desmond.imageshack.us/Himg684/scaled.php?server=684&filename=15062011eurjpylong2.jpg&res=medium

Alright - It's not as obvious as some but I'd say that was a rally-base-drop rather than a drop-base-drop. Look at the size of the zone itself in comparison to the rally into it. It's small in comparison to the huge swings down but I've seen Sam point these out as valid R-B-D's. Of course this is all still my interpretation and I guess the only way to get a definitive answer is to join the XLT. :P

Chankl78 - No, that's not an indicator, it's just a pair of trendlines and a yellow square. I adopted the same look as Sam Seiden for consistency (& the hope I'd be as successful as him ;) )

JuicyT - I trade all timeframes as the setups present themselves to me. I keep all my trades to 1% risk so just alter my position size to match the 1% risk amount. I do prefer lower timeframes and in fact I took a long on the AUDJPY 5min earlier today, but the setups aren't always there or more usually I just miss them by not concentrating hard enough. :)

And for those interested I'm also currently in this EURJPY long based on the 15min chart http://img143.imageshack.us/img143/3769/15062011eurjpylong.jpg

Of course it's very easy to show trades after the fact. So here's a trade I have waiting to fulfil. USDCHF 240min Limit Order Short at 0.8516 Stop at 0.8550 Target 1 - 0.8456 Target 2 - 0.8376. I have the orders already in place. However I'm looking for price to make a clean move up towards the supply zone. If price congests for too long just below the entry level then this may upset the profit potential and so I may pull the orders... It's a 4 hour chart so only time will tell. EDIT: Oops. Just realised I stated the stop loss was at 0.8550. Actually that was the top of the supply zone and the stop loss was actually at 0.8556 which means this trade is still in play. It doesn't means it's going to be a winner - it just means it's not beaten yet - though it's taken two near misses as of 08:00 GMT 16 June 2011. http://img193.imageshack.us/img193/3703/15062011usdchfshortlimi.jpg

Another example from yesterday. EURUSD Long. The demand zone was actually touched on Friday but I didn't want to open it just to hold it over the weekend. When price opened on Monday morning without any major gapping I entered long in the knowledge that the previous fast drop down into demand left no real supply levels nearby and a very agreeable reward/risk ratio of about 4:1. Of course they don't always work but if you choose levels on the extremes with good profit potential and with the correct wholesale vs retail mindset then I think you'll find your results over a bunch of trades is very positive. http://img30.imageshack.us/img30/7820/13062011eurusdlong.jpg