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AllForexnews replied to AllForexnews's topic in Fundamental Analysis
[b]Date: 27th March 2025.[/b] [b]SNP500 Erases Gains as Trump’s Aggressive Trade Policy Shakes Markets[/b] The SNP500 fell 1.35% on Wednesday wiping off the gains from the week. The decline is primarily due to fears of the upcoming US trade policy on April 2nd and beyond. In the President’s latest speech investors heard Trump confirm he looks to tax foreign cars with 25% tariffs and will add retaliation tariffs on Canada and the EU if they look to retaliate. The US Latest Comments On Global Trade The main concern for investors is the US President’s latest comments on the EU potentially collaborating with Canada. The two countries are aiming to push the US into a more favourable trade agreement. Donald Trump states that “if the EU works with Canada in order to do economic harm to the USA, large scale tariffs far larger than currently planned will be placed on both”. Up to now, both Canada and the EU have advised markets that they will retaliate. As a result, investors fear how these policies can trigger lower consumer demand, higher inflation and even a potential recession. The latest consumer confidence fell for the fourth day to 92.9, missing the 94.2 forecast. The economic outlook dropped to 65.2, a 12-year low, staying below the 80.0 recession warning level. However, the Federal Reserve so far in 2025 is advising the US economy remains stable despite the uncertainties. Furthermore, the US confirms they intend to impose a 25% tariff on all car imports and essential parts, including engines, transmissions, and electrical components. Many countries have already voiced their concerns over this decision. Where Automakers Build Cars Sold in America The Federal Reserve and Inflation Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee stated yesterday that policymakers may postpone monetary easing for 12 to 18 months due to market uncertainty. He also continues warning that rising inflation expectations could complicate efforts to slow it down. Another member to voice concerns is Alberto Musalem, a US economist and banker. The risk of US inflation remaining above the Fed’s 2% target, or even increasing, continues to grow, with higher import taxes potentially driving sustained price pressures. In the latest month, US inflation fell from 3.00% to 2.8% which is positive for the stock market, but only if it continues to fall towards 2.00%. There is currently only a 10% chance of an interest rate cut in May 2025 according to the Chicago Exchange. Economists advise the upcoming data will be vital and can significantly influence the risk appetite of the market. Traders will be focusing on today’s Final US GDP and tomorrow's Core PCE Price Index. If tomorrow’s PCE Price Index reads more than 0.3%, the stock market could quickly witness renewed pressure. SNP500 (USA500) - Technical Analysis Regardless of the above fundamental factors which are triggering the recent decline, the SNP500 has risen 0.35% during this morning’s Asian session. The bullish corrective wave currently measures 40% of yesterday’s bearish impulse wave. Though traders should also note that global indices including within the EU and Asia are continuing to decline. SNP500 (USA100) 1-Hour Chart The price in a 15-minute timeframe remains below most trend lines and Moving Averages. In addition to this, the price is again dropping below the neutral level of the RSI and the VWAP. If the price regains downward momentum and falls below $5,701.98, many traders may consider bearish momentum to be regaining ground. At this point, sell signals potentially can materialize. Further adding to the indications of downward price movement is the VIX index which is currently trading 0.60% higher. The higher the VIX index the lower the appetite there is towards the US stock market. Lastly, the US 10-Year Treasury Yields continue to rise adding further pressure on the stock market. The 10 Year Treasury Yields are currently trading 25 points higher. Key Takeaway Levels: The SNP500 dropped 1.35% as investors reacted to fears surrounding the upcoming US trade policy changes on April 2nd. This includes a potential 25% tariff on foreign cars and retaliatory tariffs against Canada and the EU. Fed officials warn that inflation risks remain high, with import tariffs potentially driving further price pressures. Inflation recently fell to 2.8%, but concerns persist about whether it will reach the Fed’s 2% target. Traders are closely monitoring upcoming US GDP and Core PCE Price Index data. If PCE exceeds 0.3%, stocks could face renewed pressure. Despite a slight rebound in the SNP500, indicators like RSI, VWAP, and the rising VIX index suggest bearish momentum could return, particularly if the index falls below $5,701.98. [b]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.[/b] [b]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/b] Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to register for FREE! [url=https://analysis.hfm.com/][b]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/b][/url] [b]Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets[/b] [b]Disclaimer:[/b] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. -
HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.
AllForexnews replied to AllForexnews's topic in Fundamental Analysis
[b]Date: 26th March 2025.[/b] [b]GBP Comes Under Pressure From Tough Budget and Low Inflation![/b] The British Pound is one of the worst-performing currencies of the day. The poor performance is due to pressure from low Inflation and what investors expect to be a tough budget. Why is the UK announcing a stricter budget and for how long will there be pressure on the GBP? Let’s find out! Reasons Investors Are Cautious About The New UK Budget The Pound has fallen 0.32% against the USD and more than 0.50% against the Australian and Canadian Dollar. The Pound is not the worst-performing currency of the day yet, but if the GBPJPY continues to decline as it has over the past hour, the GBP will be at the bottom of the table. The downward momentum is due to the inflation rate which fell from 3.00% to 2.8%. Previously investors were expecting the rate to remain at 3.00%. Many investors fear the fall in inflation is due to weak economic growth and struggling consumer demand. If this continues to be the case, the Bank of England is likely to consider a rate cut. GBPUSD 30-Minute Chart on March 26th The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) released its retail sales index for March today, showing a decline from -23.0 to -43.0, the lowest level in eight months, compared to the initial forecast of -28.0. According to CBI experts, businesses in the retail and wholesale sectors are experiencing pressure from global trade challenges, while the new government budget, which entails a substantial rise in debt, is further straining demand. Another key factor contributing to the Pound’s downfall is the UK’s budget and the chancellor's speech. The new UK budget will be released today and the Chancellor will speak in parliament at 12:30 GMT. Investors fear that the chancellor will announce further austerity measures and cuts to the budget. This is mainly in order to spend more on defence and adjust the budget to the weaker economic performance. The chancellor has also stated that 10,000 public sector jobs may be eliminated, with additional savings potentially coming from changes in the accounting treatment of billions of pounds reallocated from overseas aid to the defence budget. The question that traders are asking is whether the Pound will continue to decline. This will primarily depend on how strict the budget is, the chancellor's growth projections and how the bond market reacts. Nonetheless, the technical analysis continues to provide a bearish and dim bias for the upcoming 24 hours. GBPUSD - Technical Analysis Points Towards A Weakening GBP The GBPUSD has now been declining since 18:00 GMT Tuesday and failed to form a higher high. Therefore price action is partially indicating downward price movement and this signal will likely strengthen if the price falls below 1.29011. The price is also trading below the 75-bar EMA, 100-bar SMA and below the neutral level of the RSI. These factors also strengthen the bearish bias of the currency exchange. The US Dollar index is currently trading higher this morning but traders will monitor how the index will react to the European open. This is because the index has fallen 0.08% since the European Cash Open. Nonetheless, the momentum continues to remain mainly in favour of the Dollar. The only concern for traders is the support level at 1.29011. USDX (US Dollar Index) 30-Minute Chart on March 26th Key Takeaway Points: Pound Weakness: The British Pound is struggling due to lower inflation and budget concerns. Retail Sales Drop: The CBI retail index hit an eight-month low, signalling economic strain. Austerity Fears: Investors worry about public sector cuts and defence spending shifts. The bond market reaction will be key for the Pound. Bearish GBP Outlook: Technical indicators suggest further decline, pending budget impact. [b]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.[/b] [b]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/b] Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to register for FREE! [url=https://analysis.hfm.com/][b]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/b][/url] [b]Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets[/b] [b]Disclaimer:[/b] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. -
HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.
AllForexnews replied to AllForexnews's topic in Fundamental Analysis
[b]Date: 24th March 2025.[/b] [b]Market Uncertainty Intensifies Amid Tariff Concerns[/b] [img]https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis-image/?file=WORLD_Featured_9dd33aea4bfa47779f08db9f63345d02[/img] Trading Leveraged products is Risky Uncertainty has been the driving force in financial markets this year, with recent weeks seeing increased volatility due to ongoing tariff concerns. The global economy is grappling with the effects of the Trump Administration's levies, exacerbating fears over inflation and economic growth. Escalating trade tensions and geopolitical risks continue to weigh heavily on investor sentiment. Central banks, while adopting a wait-and-see stance, lean towards a dovish bias (excluding the Bank of Japan) amid rising threats of economic slowdowns. More market turbulence is expected in the short term as the world anticipates the outcome of Trump's April 2 reciprocal tariff decision. [b]North America: Key Market Events and Economic Indicators[/b] A packed economic calendar awaits the US this week, featuring key data releases, Federal Reserve commentary, and Treasury supply ahead of quarter-end. Markets remain fixated on the much-anticipated April 2 "tax date" for the imposition of reciprocal tariffs. However, in an unexpected turn, President Trump suggested "flexibility" on tariffs, adding another layer of uncertainty to market expectations. [b]Key economic releases include:[/b] [b]February PCE Price Index (Friday) –[/b] The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, which will be closely monitored for signs of tariff impacts. January's data showed a 0.3% increase in both headline and core prices, with annual rates at 2.5% and 2.6%, respectively. February’s report is expected to show a similar trend. [b]March Consumer Confidence (Tuesday) –[/b] Expected to decline by 4.3 points to 94.0, marking the lowest level in over four years. [b]Durable Goods Orders (Wednesday) –[/b] A crucial indicator of business investment and economic activity. [b]Flash March PMIs and Housing Data –[/b] Additional data points that could influence market sentiment. [b]Australia’s Inflation Data (Wednesday)[/b] Federal Reserve officials are set to speak throughout the week, though clarity on future policy moves remains unlikely. Key remarks from voters such as Kugler, Barr, and Musalem will be closely analyzed. [b]Treasury Auctions and Market Yields[/b] The Treasury market is preparing for $183 billion in shorter-dated note auctions: [b]*[/b]$69 billion in 2-year notes (Tuesday)[/b] [b]*[/b]$70 billion in 5-year notes (Wednesday)[/b] [b]*[/b]$44 billion in 7-year notes (Thursday)[/b] The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield edged higher, while the dollar remained steady. Meanwhile, the Turkish lira dropped as market volatility persisted due to geopolitical uncertainties. [b]Stock Market Update: US and European Futures Rise[/b] US and European stock futures climbed amid signs that the next round of President Trump’s tariffs may be more measured than initially feared. S&P 500 and Euro Stoxx 50 futures advanced, while Asian equities posted mixed performance. [b]Key Developments Impacting Stocks[/b] [b]Targeted U.S. Tariffs:[/b] Reports suggest that the next round of US tariffs will be more focused rather than a broad-based global effort. China and Australia have warned of potential economic shocks from US trade policies. [b]Investor Sentiment:[/b] "The news of more targeted tariffs has been taken positively during early Asian trading hours, but markets remain on edge," said Khoon Goh, Head of Asia Research at ANZ Group Holdings Ltd. [b]Geopolitical Concerns:[/b] Turkish assets face increased volatility following the arrest of a key opposition politician, prompting the country’s central bank to hold a "technical meeting" with commercial lenders in preparation for further market swings. [b]Corporate and Sector-Specific News[/b] [b]Ant Group’s AI Strategy:[/b] The Jack Ma-backed Ant Group Co. is leveraging Chinese-made semiconductors to develop AI models that cut costs by 20%, boosting optimism in Chinese tech stocks. [b]DeepSeek’s AI Influence:[/b] The release of a lower-cost large language model by DeepSeek has fueled a 26% rally in Chinese technology shares this year, with analysts predicting further valuation expansion. [b]Commodity Markets:[/b] Oil prices remained stable amid uncertainty over new US tariffs and an expected increase in OPEC+ supply. Gold hovered around $3,027 per ounce, near its all-time high reached last Thursday. [b]Conclusion[/b] With market volatility heightened by trade uncertainties and global economic concerns, investors will closely track developments in tariff policy, economic data, and central bank commentary for signs of future trends. As April 2 approaches, markets brace for potential disruptions and opportunities in response to evolving US trade strategies. [b]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.[/b] [b]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/b] Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to register for FREE! [url=https://analysis.hfm.com/][b]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/b][/url] [b]Andria Pichidi HFMarkets[/b] [b]Disclaimer:[/b] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. -
HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.
AllForexnews replied to AllForexnews's topic in Fundamental Analysis
[b]Date: 21st March 2025.[/b] [b]Gold is Up 14% in 2025 But Has It Peaked?[/b] Gold prices fell on Thursday for the first time this week after reaching a new all-time high. The asset’s safe-haven status drives its bullish trend as the White House confirms new tariffs on April 2nd. On the other hand, the decline, which continues this morning potentially is due to fears the price is overbought or at its peak. Why Is Gold Increasing in Value? The main bullish price driver for Gold is the risk appetite of the market due to fears of a recession. Even the White House acknowledges a short-term downturn, though the administration calls it a ‘transitional period’. A potential recession has also been mentioned by economists including the previous Treasury Secretary, Lawrence Summers, who advises the chances of a recession in 2025 is around 50%. The possibility of a recession due to the new trade policy is not only driving the price of Gold but also bond yields and the stock market. The SNP500 has fallen almost 11% over the past 4-weeks. The risk appetite of the market can be seen through the poor performance of the stock market. Furthermore, the VIX index has fallen almost 11% while demand for bonds has risen. In addition to this, the Federal Reserve made it clear that there is no clear sign yet that the economy will not experience a recession but does expect lower economic growth. The Federal Reserve reduced its projections for the US GDP Growth Rates. The Chairman of the Federal Reserve told journalists that the central bank will continue its wait-and-see approach due to the uncertainties of the trade policy. The Federal Reserve will opt for a reactive approach rather than a proactive approach which may unnecessarily push inflation higher. Trade Tariffs on April 2nd Donald Trump imposed 20% tariffs on all Chinese imports, along with 25% duties on goods from Canada and Mexico. He also enforced 25% sanctions on imported steel and aluminium, prompting retaliatory measures. Meanwhile, unemployment rose to 4.1%, retail sales by only 0.2%, and business activity remained sluggish. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned of a potential US recession, and experts suggest that if the trend continues, the Federal Reserve may adopt a more ‘dovish’ stance, pressuring the US dollar. At 20:00 (GMT+2) today, investors await the regulator’s meeting results and a new dot chart forecasting interest rate cuts. Any signal of borrowing cost adjustments could drive XAU/USD prices upward. XAUUSD (Gold) - Technical Analysis The price of XAUUSD this morning during the Asian Session fell, forming a lower swing low for the first time since March 10th. The question which most traders are now asking is whether the price will now continue retracing downwards. Currently, the price in the medium term remains above the 75-EMA and above the 100-SMA which indicates the price still maintains its bullish bias. However, the price below the VWAP and order flow shows that so far sell orders outnumber buy orders. Therefore, due to the mixed signals, the volatility in the short term will be vital for technical analysts. For example, if the price falls to $3,026, 65% of the retracement has regained downward momentum potentially indicating a downward trend in the short term. Alternatively, at $3,027.90 the instrument will form a bearish breakout which again potentially indicates downward momentum. However, if the price increases above $3,034.17, a bullish breakout would have formed and the price will be again trading above the main Moving Average. Key Takeaway Points: Gold prices surged to an all-time high before dropping, possibly due to overbought concerns. Economic uncertainty and trade policies fuel demand for gold, bonds, and a declining stock market. The Federal Reserve acknowledges economic slowdown risks but remains reactive rather than proactive. The US plans tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico, contributing to market volatility and economic concerns. [b]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.[/b] [b]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/b] Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to register for FREE! [url=https://analysis.hfm.com/][b]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/b][/url] [b]Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets[/b] [b]Disclaimer:[/b] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. -
HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.
AllForexnews replied to AllForexnews's topic in Fundamental Analysis
[b]Date: 20th March 2025.[/b] [b]The SNP500 Remains Shaky As Stocks Attempt To Recover![/b] The SNP500 loses momentum and declines more than 1.00% during Thursday’s European session. The decline results in the SNP500 losing previous gains from Wednesday. The main cause for the lower price is due to the Federal Reserve lowering its projections for the economic outlook. In addition to this, traders are fearing April 2nd. Why is ‘April 2nd’ triggering a lower risk appetite? April 2nd And What It Means For The Market? On April 2nd the US is anticipated to impose reciprocal tariffs on global markets. In other words, like-for-like tariffs mean that the US will charge its competition as they are charged themselves. According to the White House’s latest comments, ‘unless the tariff and non-tariff barriers are at the same level, or the US has higher tariffs, the tariffs will go into effect’. The market’s risk appetite has significantly fallen as this date approaches as investors fear these policies will trigger lower economic growth. This includes the economy globally and within the US. The VIX index, which is known to indicate the risk appetite of the market, fell in value by 16% over the past week. This week, indeed the SNP500 rose in value, however, today the VIX index shows signs of strengthening. If the VIX rises, this may further indicate negative price movement of the SNP500 and the broader stock market. A potential positive for the stock market is if the Federal Reserve takes a more dovish approach in April and May. In today’s early hours, President Trump attempted to pressure the Federal Reserve into considering a rate cut at the next meeting. According to experts, the President is attempting to prompt the Fed to provide a cushion for April 2nd. The Federal Reserve Yesterday, US Fed officials maintained the interest rate at 4.50%, aligning with analysts' expectations. They highlighted rising economic uncertainty due to new trade tariffs and the unclear impact of sanctions on inflation, opting for a wait-and-see approach while monitoring data. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that long-term consumer price index projections remain stable, with inflation expected to rise temporarily. The Central Bank changed its predictions for the upcoming quarters. According to updated estimates, Inflation in 2025 is expected to be at 2.7%, compared to 2.5% previously, and Unemployment could be fixed at 4.4%, which is 0.1% more than the previous forecast. Simultaneously, the expected growth rate of the US economy has been revised from 2.1% to 1.7%. Additionally, the quantitative tightening (QT) program will start slowing down on April 1. Following the meeting, the Dollar strengthened against major currencies. SNP500 - Technical Analysis On the 2-hour chart, the price of the SNP500 has witnessed mixed results throughout the day but has managed to remain above the major trend lines and in the bullish regression channel of the Bollinger Bands. However, on intraday timeframes, indications remain mixed, meaning traders should be prepared for volatility in both directions. [b]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.[/b] [b]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/b] Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to register for FREE! [url=https://analysis.hfm.com/][b]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/b][/url] [b]Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets[/b] [b]Disclaimer:[/b] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. -
HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.
AllForexnews replied to AllForexnews's topic in Fundamental Analysis
[b]Date: 19th March 2025.[/b] [b]Stock Markets Mixed as Investors Await US Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision[/b] Asian stock markets showed mixed performance on Wednesday as investors awaited the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. Global markets remain on edge, with traders looking for guidance from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on future monetary policy. US stock futures edged higher, while oil prices declined for a second consecutive session. Yen Weakens as Bank of Japan Holds Rates Steady The Bank of Japan (BOJ) kept its policy rate unchanged at 0.5%, signalling concerns over global trade tensions while acknowledging domestic conditions that support further hikes. The central bank added trade policies to its risk outlook, reflecting heightened uncertainty as President Trump's tariff threats loom. Despite strong wage growth and inflation at 4%, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda appears cautious, suggesting the next rate hike may follow a six-month pace—possibly in June or July. Meanwhile, Japan’s latest trade data showed a surplus in February, with exports rising over 11%. The Bank of Japan kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5%, in line with expectations. Similarly, the Federal Reserve is widely anticipated to maintain its current rate stance. The Japanese Yen continued its decline against the US dollar after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) opted to keep its policy interest rate unchanged, citing ongoing global trade concerns and domestic economic trends, including rising wages and inflation. Meanwhile, the Fed is expected to cut rates starting in September, keeping the rate gap with Japan-wide. The Yen slipped as much as 0.4% to 150 per dollar, extending losses from last week’s five-month high. The decision was widely expected, as all economists surveyed by Bloomberg had anticipated that the BOJ would maintain its current policy stance. In its latest statement, the BOJ highlighted trade policies and global economic conditions as key risks to its outlook. This marks a shift from previous statements, reflecting heightened uncertainty in global markets. Over the past year, Japan’s central bank has raised interest rates three times since ending its negative interest rate policy, the last of its kind worldwide. Key Focus: US Federal Reserve’s Rate Decision All eyes are on the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement and Powell’s press conference, where investors hope to gain insight into future rate moves. The dot plot forecast is expected to align with December’s projections, suggesting two 25-basis-point rate cuts per year through mid-2027. Analysts anticipate rate reductions in June and December 2025, though Powell is likely to emphasize a measured approach toward the 2% inflation target. US stock markets saw losses across major indices: S&P 500 fell 1.1% to 5,614.66. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.6% to 41,581.31. Nasdaq Composite slid 1.7% to 17,504.12. Tech Stocks Under Pressure Tesla dropped 5.3%, weighed down by slowing electric vehicle (EV) sales and rising competition. China’s BYD unveiled an ultra-fast charging system, intensifying pressure on Tesla’s market dominance. Meanwhile, Alphabet (Google's parent company) lost 2.2% after announcing a $32 billion acquisition of cybersecurity firm Wiz, its largest-ever deal, aimed at strengthening cloud computing and AI capabilities. The broader technology sector continued to struggle amid concerns over overvaluation and trade tensions. Nvidia dropped 3.3%, even as it hosted its "AI Woodstock" event. Super Micro Computer tumbled 9.6%. Palantir Technologies lost 4%. Investors remain cautious about former President Donald Trump’s trade policies, which could impact US economic growth. Tariff uncertainty adds pressure on the Federal Reserve, as lower interest rates encourage borrowing but could also fuel inflation concerns. Oil Prices Decline as Market Awaits Fed Decision Oil prices slipped for a second straight session, pressured by rising US crude inventories and persistent concerns over global trade tensions. Brent crude dropped 0.7%, trading near $70 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude hovered around $66 per barrel. The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a 4.6 million barrel build in US crude stockpiles last week, although inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma, declined. Official EIA data is due later Wednesday. Market sentiment remains fragile as investors assess OPEC+ supply increases and weak demand in China, compounding concerns over a potential economic slowdown. Geopolitical tensions remain in focus, particularly in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine conflict. The Biden administration is closely monitoring Iranian involvement in Houthi attacks, while Russian President Vladimir Putin rejected US calls for a ceasefire, instead limiting strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. [b]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.[/b] [b]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/b] Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to register for FREE! [url=https://analysis.hfm.com/][b]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/b][/url] [b]Andria Pichidi HFMarkets[/b] [b]Disclaimer:[/b] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. -
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AllForexnews replied to AllForexnews's topic in Fundamental Analysis
[b]Date: 18th March 2025.[/b] [b]Will Gold Continue Its Bullish Trend or Is Buying Too Risky?[/b] The price momentum of Gold will partially depend on this week’s Central Banks guidance on their monetary policy. So far, the price of Gold has risen in value due to expectations of further interest rate cuts in 2025 and recession fears. Additionally, significantly higher demand from retail investors has contributed to its upward momentum. Will Gold Maintain Momentum? In the last quarter of 2024, economists and investment banks such as Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan set a prediction that Gold will reach $3,000. The $3,000 target set by US institutions has been a key talking point. This video from early December is a key example. So far in 2025 alone, the price of Gold has risen 13.60% and more than 31% over the past 12 months. So far, the price momentum does not show signs of slowing nor is the bullish momentum triggering indications that the price is overbought. Overbought indications can be triggered through the RSI, divergence or price rejection patterns. Neither of these are currently forming. However, traders should stay vigilant, as the sharp price increase may encourage investors to capitalize on profits by selling at higher levels. XAUUSD 2-Hour Chart The Impact of This Week’s Central Banks and the Federal Reserve Meetings on Gold This week the market and Gold traders are paying close attention to the Central Bank Meetings around the globe. Particularly, traders are focusing on the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Bank of Japan and Swiss National Bank. One of the key reasons Gold is increasing in demand is due to the uncertainty of Trump’s trade policies, recession fears and also interest rate cuts. Nonetheless, this week the heads of the above-mentioned central banks will comment on interest rates in the foreseeable future, the state of the economy and their views on the new trade policy. If the Fed's comments on the economy remain positive and a hawkish stance is taken on rates, Gold can witness short-term pressure. Short-term pressure could trigger the instrument to form a retracement. A retracement based on the 75-period Moving Average and 100-period SMA could fall between $2,941.60 and $2,961.75. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index Meanwhile, Gold may also face pressure from the European Commission's large-scale rearmament plans, enhancing the region's investment appeal. The fiscal policy’s expansionary appeal could ignite economic growth and a lesser need for the ECB to cut its rates. Investors are also closely monitoring the German parliament's vote on a proposed €500 billion special fund aimed at infrastructure and defence projects. The higher investor sentiment can also be seen via the European stock market. The German DAX has risen 4.20% over the past week, the Euro Stoxx 50 3.00% and the IBEX by 3.06%. Therefore, the central bank’s comments on the monetary policy and the resilience of the economy can be vital for Gold. Lastly, President Trump and President Putin are also scheduled to speak later this afternoon regarding Ukraine. If the talks bear fruit the market’s higher market sentiment may also pressure Gold. XAUUSD - Technical Analysis The price action of the XAUUSD will depend on this week’s events and the US Dollar Index. Currently, the US Dollar Index is trading 0.08% higher but not high enough to pressure Gold. The VIX, a well-known risk indicator, is trading 1.10% lower which is also indicating an improved appetite so far. The latest UFTC report shows that real-money-backed bullish positions total 215.627K, compared to 33.467K for bearish positions. Over the past week, buyers reduced their contracts by 1.429K, while sellers cut theirs by 1.016K, signalling the continuation of the current trend. The asset also remains above the VWAP and with positive cumulative delta statistics. On the 2-hour chart, the price remains in the bullish zone of the RSI and the MACD. In addition to this, the price is currently trading 1.85% higher than the 75-period EMA which also indicates buyers are controlling the market. On the 3-minute timeframe, the price swings continue to form mainly higher highs and lows, as well as trade above the 200-period SMA. By evaluating this data and indications, the price keeps its bullish bias. However, if the price falls below $3,009.80, indications in the short term may change. Key Takeaway Points: Gold’s Momentum: Gold has surged 13.6% in 2025, driven by interest rate cut expectations, recession fears, and strong retail demand. Central Banks’ Impact: This week’s Fed, BoJ, BoE, and SNB meetings could influence Gold, especially if a hawkish stance is taken. Particularly, if the central banks also predict a resilient economy. Technical Strength: Gold remains in a bullish trend with no overbought signals, but traders should watch for potential retracements. Geopolitical Factors: European rearmament plans and Trump-Putin talks may impact Gold’s demand and market sentiment. [b]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.[/b] [b]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/b] Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to register for FREE! [url=https://analysis.hfm.com/][b]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/b][/url] [b]Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets[/b] [b]Disclaimer:[/b] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. -
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AllForexnews replied to AllForexnews's topic in Fundamental Analysis
[b]Date: 17th March 2025.[/b] [b]A Key Week For Central Bank: Bank Of Japan and JPY In Focus![/b] The market finds itself in a week full of central bank decisions which is likely to create plenty of volatility. This includes the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank. Analysts expect all central banks to keep their interest rates unchanged except for the Swiss National Bank. Of the related currencies the best performing in 2025 so far remains the Japanese Yen. CHFJPY - Can This Week’s Events Shift Momentum Back in Favor of the JPY? The Japanese Yen has been the best performing currency of 2025 due to higher inflation, national salary increases and historic interest rate hikes. However, the currency has come under pressure from economic data weaker than previous expectations. On Monday 17th, the JPY continued to struggle. Nonetheless, most economists believe the trend remains intact and the price of the JPY remains higher than the average price of 2025 so far. A Reuters poll of top economists suggests core inflation may ease as government energy subsidies resume. However, the overall upward trend is expected to persist, allowing the Bank of Japan to maintain its tightening stance. Preliminary estimates indicate the core consumer price index will rise by 2.9%, down from 3.2%. Even with an inflation rate of 2.9%, the central bank will have the space to manoeuvre. The Japanese Yen's bullish trend has paused for now. However, buyers are awaiting comments from the Bank of Japan Governor that could reignite momentum. Japanese government bond yields show mixed signals as the Bank of Japan gears up for its next key monetary policy decision amid global uncertainties. If the BoJ continues to signal further rate hikes for the upcoming months, the JPY is likely to rise further. Swiss National Bank This morning the Swiss Franc is witnessing neither positive nor negative price movement. Most economists believe the Swiss National Bank will take another decision to cut interest rates even though there is little room left for maneuver. Most economists believe the SNB will cut 0.25% with few individuals opting for a 50 basis point cut to 0.00%. Switzerland aims to cut rates further due to low inflation, which is nearly 0.00%. According to economists, if prices do not pick up, the country may be at risk of deflation. In addition to this, Switzerland’s Gross Domestic Product growth rate has fallen to 0.2%, the lowest since 2023. If the SNB cuts more than 0.25% or indicates that the policy rate will fall to 0.00%, the CHFJPY potentially can continue to fall. For the CHFJPY, the two central bank decisions will be the key price drivers as neither economy is due to release any major economic data. Trump and President Putin's scheduled phone call tomorrow could drive market volatility, particularly impacting the safe-haven Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen. Key Takeaway Points: Key rate decisions from the Fed, BoJ, BoE, and SNB are expected, with analysts predicting no changes except for a likely rate cut from the Swiss National Bank. The Japanese Yen has led currency performance in 2025 but is facing pressure from weaker economic data. However, analysts expect the trend to remain intact. The SNB is expected to cut rates by 0.25% due to low inflation and slow GDP growth, which could weaken the CHF further. The BoJ’s rate outlook and a scheduled Trump-Putin phone call could increase volatility, especially for safe-haven currencies. [b]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.[/b] [b]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/b] Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to register for FREE! [url=https://analysis.hfm.com/][b]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/b][/url] [b]Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets[/b] [b]Disclaimer:[/b] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. -
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AllForexnews replied to AllForexnews's topic in Fundamental Analysis
[b]Date: 14th March 2025.[/b] [b]Gold Surges Past Record High as Market Volatility Persists.[/b] Gold Surges Past Record High as Market Volatility Persists Gold surged towards $2,994 per ounce, surpassing its previous high set on Thursday. With a 2.6% rise this week, gold is on track for its most significant gain since November. Meanwhile, gold futures in New York comfortably exceeded the $3,000 mark, reflecting strong investor sentiment toward the precious metal. The robust performance of gold this quarter extends its strong annual rally in 2024. Market uncertainty, exacerbated by the US administration’s aggressive trade policies, has dampened risk appetite for equities, pushing the S&P 500 into correction territory this week. Central bank purchases increased ETF inflows, and bullish forecasts from major banks have further fueled gold’s ascent. Trade Tensions and Market Impact Former President Donald Trump escalated trade tensions by proposing a 200% tariff on European alcoholic beverages, including wine and champagne. Additionally, he reaffirmed his stance on retaining tariffs on steel and aluminium and signalled that reciprocal tariffs on global trade partners could take effect as early as April 2. As we approach the second quarter, reciprocal tariffs could drive another wave of market turbulence, solidifying gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. Gold and Equity Market Reactions The upward momentum in gold has also lifted mining stocks, with Australia’s Evolution Mining Ltd. reaching an all-time high. Global holdings in gold-backed ETFs increased to 2,687 tons, marking the highest level since November 2023. Analysts at major banks remain bullish on gold’s trajectory. Macquarie Group recently forecasted a potential spike to $3,500 per ounce in Q2, while BNP Paribas revised its outlook to show gold prices consistently above $3,000. Gold traded at $2,983.50 per ounce in the Asia session, reflecting a 14% year-to-date gain. Meanwhile, silver edged lower after nearing $34 per ounce, while platinum and palladium recorded gains. US Stock Market Recovery Amid Uncertainty After a sharp sell-off, US stock futures rebounded. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.4%, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite futures gained 0.6% and 0.8%, respectively. Despite the slight recovery, Wall Street remains on edge following the S&P 500’s descent into correction territory. Trump’s firm stance on tariffs has added to market concerns. During a meeting with NATO’s secretary general, he dismissed any possibility of easing trade restrictions, acknowledging that further market disruptions may lie ahead. Government Shutdown and Economic Indicators Adding to the economic uncertainty, a potential US government shutdown loomed over Wall Street. However, a breakthrough emerged late Thursday as Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer signalled a willingness to advance a Republican-led stopgap spending bill. Today the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey is expected to shed light on how consumers are coping with inflation and trade disruptions. Last month’s report indicated weakening economic confidence, which could have further implications for spending trends. Asian Markets Rally Amid China’s Economic Stimulus Asian stock markets saw a strong performance this morning, brushing off Wall Street’s losses. Chinese stocks surged after state-run banks and financial institutions were instructed to support consumer spending. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index jumped 2.5% to 24,038.85, while the Shanghai Composite Index gained 1.9% to 3,420.65. In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 added 0.9%, while Australia’s ASX 200 climbed 0.6%. China’s National Financial Regulatory Administration issued directives aimed at boosting consumer finance, including encouraging credit card usage and providing support for struggling borrowers. Economists, however, argue that broader reforms—such as wage growth and enhanced social welfare—are necessary for sustained economic recovery. Wall Street’s Struggles Amid AI Stock Declines Despite positive economic data, including lower-than-expected wholesale inflation and strong job market indicators, stock market turbulence continued. AI-related stocks, which have been at the forefront of market gains, faced renewed pressure. Palantir Technologies fell 4.8%, Super Micro Computer dropped 8%, and Nvidia fluctuated before closing 0.1% lower. Tesla also struggled, declining 3% and extending its 2025 losses to over 40%. In contrast, Intel shares soared 14.6% after announcing Lip-Bu Tan as its new CEO. Oil Prices and Currency Movements In commodities, US crude oil prices rose by $0.46 to $67.01 per barrel, while Brent crude increased by $0.44 to $70.32 per barrel. The US dollar strengthened to 148.63 Yen, while the Euro dipped slightly to $1.0845. Conclusion Market volatility remains high as investors navigate shifting trade policies, inflation concerns, and economic uncertainties. While gold continues to shine as a safe-haven asset, equity markets face persistent headwinds. As geopolitical and economic developments unfold, traders and investors must remain vigilant in the days ahead. [b]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.[/b] [b]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/b] Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to register for FREE! [url=https://analysis.hfm.com/][b]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/b][/url] [b]Andria Pichidi HFMarkets[/b] [b]Disclaimer:[/b] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. -
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AllForexnews replied to AllForexnews's topic in Fundamental Analysis
[b]Date: 13th March 2025.[/b] [b]Wall Street Rebounds on Cooler CPI, But Tariff Uncertainty Weighs on Markets.[/b] Wall Street found some relief as cooler-than-expected US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data provided a temporary boost for stocks. However, Treasury yields continued to rise, with investors remaining cautious amid ongoing tariff uncertainties. Stock Market Reaction to CPI Data The US stock market recovered after enduring sharp losses throughout the month. The tech-heavy NASDAQ led the rebound with a 1.22% gain, although it remains down 6.35% for March. The S&P 500 climbed 0.49%, yet it is still off by 5.97% for the month, finishing just below the 5600 mark at 5599. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 0.2% lower, reflecting investor apprehension over economic policy shifts. Despite the positive CPI data, Treasury bonds failed to benefit. The 2-year yield increased by 4 basis points to 3.982%, while the freshly auctioned 10-year yield rose 3.3 basis points to 4.318%. Investors refrained from aggressively chasing bonds as inflation trends had already softened before the latest tariff measures took effect. Global Market Response to Trade Policies Markets in Asia struggled on Thursday, reversing early gains as concerns over U.S. trade policies overshadowed optimism from the U.S. inflation report. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong fell 1.4%, while China’s blue-chip stocks dropped 0.7%. Japan’s Nikkei initially gained 1.4% before retreating to flat territory. Australia’s benchmark index slid 0.5%, confirming a technical correction as it fell 10% from its record high reached on February 14. European markets also faced pressure, with STOXX 50 futures slipping 0.5%. Meanwhile, US futures pointed to a weak Wall Street open, with S&P 500 futures down 0.5% and NASDAQ futures off 0.8%. Trade Tensions and Inflation Concerns The US government’s latest tariff measures on steel and aluminium, which took effect on Wednesday, added to market uncertainty. Canada and Europe responded with swift retaliatory duties, further exacerbating trade tensions. Please note that the trade policy developments are clouding inflation forecasts, with potential further tariffs on Chinese, Canadian, and Mexican goods posing additional risks. Commodity Market Trends Safe-haven assets gained traction amid market volatility. Gold prices surged 0.5% to $2,947.06 per ounce, nearing the all-time high of $2,956.15 from February 24. The Yen strengthened by 0.4% to 147.70 per Dollar, while the Euro edged 0.1% lower to $1.0879. Crude oil prices pulled back after a recent rally. Brent crude futures declined 0.3% to $70.77 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 0.4% to $67.44 per barrel. Looking Ahead The combination of trade policy uncertainty, inflation concerns, and shifting investor sentiment continues to shape global markets. While Wall Street saw a brief recovery, ongoing volatility suggests that market participants remain cautious as they navigate the evolving economic landscape. [b]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.[/b] [b]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/b] Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to register for FREE! [url=https://analysis.hfm.com/][b]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/b][/url] [b]Andria Pichidi HFMarkets[/b] [b]Disclaimer:[/b] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. -
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AllForexnews replied to AllForexnews's topic in Fundamental Analysis
[b]Date: 12th March 2025.[/b] [b]Eyes on Inflation: Market Volatility, Tariffs, and Geopolitical Tensions Shake Wall Street.[/b] It was another volatile session as markets assessed fresh news on tariffs and Ukraine, all while positioning for upcoming economic reports like the JOLTS data and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Wall Street closed lower but off its lows, with the Dow slipping by -1.14%, finishing at 41,433, after dropping to a session low of 41,175. This decline followed reports that President Trump would increase tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminium by another 25%, bringing the total levy to 50%. This move was seen as retaliation for Ontario’s 25% tariff on US electricity imports. This news lifted some of the market's anxiety, though fears of the ongoing trade war and its broader economic implications remains. The tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports could potentially revive US factory jobs. This decision adds to the growing uncertainty surrounding the stock market, which is grappling with concerns about an economic slowdown. The S&P 500 closed with a -0.76% loss, settling at 5572, just shy of correction territory, while the NASDAQ fell by -0.18% to 17,436 after fluctuating in and out of positive territory. Treasury Yields and the Stock Market: Diverging Signals Despite the declines in stocks, treasury yields saw a rise, with the 2-year up 6.2 basis points at 3.945%, the 3-year increasing by 6 basis points at 3.950%, and the 10-year rising 6.5 basis points to 4.283%. The 30-year saw a 5.5 basis point drop, closing at 4.600%. There was stronger selling, even with a solid 3-year auction, and some haven demand began to fade as dip buyers emerged in the stock market. The dollar closed slightly off its lows at 103.375, while oil ended the day up 0.8% at $66.50 per barrel. Gold also saw an increase of 0.96%, reaching $2916.49 per ounce. European Stocks Poised for Stronger Open European stocks were expected to open stronger after Trump sought to reassure investors about the outlook for the US economy. Furthermore, Ukraine agreed to a proposal for a 30-day truce with Russia, giving markets some hope for geopolitical stability. Despite these developments, markets remain nervous about the future, with concerns over sticky inflation, Trump’s tariff policy, and the pace of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts all weighing heavily on investor sentiment. The VIX, a gauge of stock market volatility, remains elevated near its highest level since August. Similarly, measures of volatility in the US Treasury market are at their highest levels since November. With economic growth in the U.S. uncertain, market participants are feeling the pressure. Geopolitical and Economic Risks: The EU Responds In response to the new US tariffs on steel and aluminium, the European Union announced it would impose duties on American goods worth €26 billion ($28.3 billion). The European Commission’s swift action underscores the growing global trade tensions and the potential for further escalation. Trump's Economic Strategy: A Mixed Picture President Trump sought to calm recession fears, declaring, “I don’t see it at all. I think this country’s going to boom.” He added that market fluctuations are natural, stating, “Markets are going to go up and they’re going to go down. But you know what, we have to rebuild our country.” While the president's optimism contrasts with market fears, analysts remain cautious, particularly given the increasing uncertainty about US economic growth and the potential consequences of the ongoing trade wars. In a meeting with top executives, Trump stressed the importance of speeding up the approval process for environmental regulations and hinted at plans to announce a major electricity project soon. He also suggested that companies manufacturing in the US could benefit from reduced business taxes. Markets Look to Inflation Data Investors are also closely watching the US consumer inflation reading, set to be released later in the day. The CPI is expected to advance by 0.3% in February, following a 0.5% increase at the start of the year. Analysts are concerned that if inflation remains sticky, the Federal Reserve may lack the flexibility to cut interest rates, especially if Trump's economic policies lead to a sharp slowdown in growth. Commodities: Oil and Gold on the Rise In commodities, oil extended its gains after the US revised its global oversupply forecast. Gold continued its upward momentum, supported by safe-haven demand amid market uncertainty. Final Thoughts: Tariffs, Fed Policy, and Market Volatility As we move forward into 2025, one key question remains: Do tariffs matter more than the Fed's policies for US stock markets? The answer may depend on how markets react to future trade developments, inflation data, and the Federal Reserve’s actions. As the market navigates this volatile environment, investors will need to stay vigilant and adaptable, ready to respond to the ever-evolving landscape of tariffs, inflation, and economic growth. [b]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.[/b] [b]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/b] Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to register for FREE! [url=https://analysis.hfm.com/][b]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/b][/url] [b]Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets[/b] [b]Disclaimer:[/b] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. -
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AllForexnews replied to AllForexnews's topic in Fundamental Analysis
[b]Date: 11th March 2025.[/b] [b]Recession Fears Grow as Market Sell-Off Deepens.[/b] Recession fears escalated following weekend comments from President Donald Trump, who described the US as being in a "period of transition" when questioned about economic risks. Concerns over tariffs and their global economic impact have heightened uncertainty and weakened investor confidence. A JPMorgan model recently indicated a 31% market-implied probability of a US recession, while a similar Goldman Sachs model suggests rising recession risks. Meanwhile, disappointing earnings guidance from major firms, including big tech companies, has fueled a bearish market outlook. Broader market fears are compounding the downturn. Investors remain wary of economic recession signals, exacerbated by trade uncertainties and shifting fiscal policies. The S&P 500 has erased its post-election gains, and speculative assets—including crypto-linked stocks and ETFs—are facing aggressive sell-offs. Stock Market Plunge: Major Indexes in the Red The NASDAQ tumbled -4.0%, while the S&P 500 dropped -2.70%, and the Dow Jones declined -2.08%, pushing major indexes into negative territory for the year. Global equities also suffered sharp declines. Amid this turmoil, Treasury yields fell as investors sought safe-haven assets, reinforcing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts in June. The 2-year yield dropped -11.6 bps to 3.883%, while the 10-year yield slipped -8.5 bps to 4.218%. The US Dollar Index (DXY) firmed slightly to 103.926, recovering from its session low of 103.559, the weakest level since November. Commodities Struggle Amid Market Volatility Despite Wall Street’s sell-off, gold remained flat at $2,888 per ounce, failing to gain traction as a safe-haven asset. Oil prices also dipped by -0.26% to $65.86 per barrel, reflecting broader economic concerns. Oil tracked equity markets and risk assets amid concerns that tariffs and other measures could stunt growth in the world’s largest economy. Oil has fallen nearly 20% from its mid-January high as Trump’s tariff hikes and push to cut federal spending darken the economic outlook for the largest oil producer and consumer. Other bearish factors include OPEC+ plans to increase supply and weakening demand in China, where refiners are being urged to shift away from producing key fuels like diesel and gasoline. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright provided some bullish sentiment, stating that the Trump administration is prepared to enforce US sanctions on Iranian oil production. He made the remarks at the CERAWeek by S&P Global conference in Houston on Monday. Executives from major oil producers—including Chevron Corp., Shell Plc, and Saudi Aramco—expressed strong support for Trump’s energy dominance agenda at the gathering. Vitol Group CEO Russell Hardy projected oil prices to range between $60 and $80 per barrel over the next few years. Key US Economic Data Releases This Week Investors are bracing for significant economic data, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), and the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report. While the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) remains focused on inflation, Tuesday’s JOLTS report could drive market reactions amid heightened recession concerns. In December, job openings declined -556K to 7.6 million, near the lowest level since January 2021. The opening rate has also fallen to 4.5%, down from 5.3% a year ago. Meanwhile, the quit rate—a key measure of labour market confidence—held at 2.0%, compared to 3.0% at its peak. Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations Shift Fed funds futures indicate expectations for three quarter-point rate cuts in 2025, as economic slowdown concerns overshadow inflation fears. The futures market now anticipates the first rate cut in June, with the implied rate reflecting -30 bps in cuts. September pricing suggests -59 bps, while December signals -78 bps in total easing. However, the Fed remains in its blackout period ahead of its March 18-19 meeting. Tech Stocks Hit Hard as Nasdaq 100 Falls 3.8% The Nasdaq 100 suffered its worst single-day decline since October 2022, falling -3.8%. At intraday lows, the index was down -4.7%, erasing more than $1 trillion in market value. Key factors driving the sell-off include tariff-related uncertainty, declining confidence in AI spending, and disappointing inflation and labour data. The so-called "Magnificent 7" tech stocks, which led the recent bull market, experienced steep losses. Among the biggest losers were: Tesla (-15.4%) – its worst day since September 2020 amid falling sales and concerns over CEO Elon Musk’s focus on the company. MicroStrategy (-16.7%) AppLovin (-12%) Palantir (-10.1%) Atlassian (-9.6%) Broader Market Impact: Treasury Yields Drop as Safe-Haven Demand Rises As recession fears mount, Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year yield hitting its lowest level this year. This decline reflects investors' growing preference for safer assets. On the risk-asset front, Bitcoin plummeted to nearly $77,000, marking its lowest level since November, as investors moved away from speculative assets amid economic uncertainty. Cryptocurrency-related exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been hit hard. Among the biggest losers were two leveraged ETFs tied to Bitcoin-holding firm MicroStrategy, both of which dropped over 30% in a single day. Additionally, an ETF doubling the daily returns of Robinhood Markets Inc.—a favoured brokerage among crypto traders—plummeted 40%. Leveraged Bitcoin funds fell approximately 20%, while those focused on Ethereum declined 26% amid the broader digital asset selloff. The downturn highlights growing uncertainty in the crypto market, particularly as speculation surrounding regulatory policies and economic conditions intensifies. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies initially surged post-election, driven by optimism over potential policy shifts. With key economic reports and the Fed meeting approaching, markets remain on edge. Recession fears, tech sell-offs, and shifting rate-cut expectations continue to drive volatility. Investors will closely watch upcoming data releases to gauge economic resilience and potential Federal Reserve actions in the coming months. [b]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.[/b] [b]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/b] Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to register for FREE! [url=https://analysis.hfm.com/][b]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/b][/url] [b]Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets[/b] [b]Disclaimer:[/b] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. -
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AllForexnews replied to AllForexnews's topic in Fundamental Analysis
[b]Date: 10th March 2025.[/b] [b]SNP500 Hits a 6-Month Low: Trade Policy & Recession Fears Weigh on Market`s.[/b] The SNP500 completes a 3-week decline and falls to its lowest price since September 2024. The price continues to remain under pressure from President Trump’s trade policy. In addition to this, investors are becoming increasingly cautious about a potential US recession. SNP500 - Trade Policy and The Federal Reserve’s View On The Economy The US Non-Farm Employment data on Friday read lower than what analysts were expecting. However, the data does not yet indicate a recession. Investors are increasingly showing a lower risk appetite and cautiousness due to Trump’s trade policy on China, Mexico and Canada. The NFP Change read 151,000, 8,000 lower than predictions and the Unemployment Rate rose to 4.1%. The poor price movement is more driven by comments from the US President. Yesterday evening on Fox News, the US President addressed concerns about a potential US recession, advising the economy will undergo ‘a period of transition.’ However, some see this as a subtle warning of a short economic downturn. Though the Chairman of the Federal Reserve is taking a different tone and looking to reassure the market. Mr Jerome Powell advises the FOMC is not expecting or worried about a US recession. ‘The US economy remains in a strong position despite heightened uncertainty,’ Powell stated at a University of Chicago event. He also said that sentiment readings have been a reliable tool for predicting consumption growth in recent years. ‘There is no need to rush, we are in a good position to wait for more clarity,’ was his answer to questions about interest rates. On the one hand, the SNP500 may witness support from the positive comments from the Fed regarding the economy. He also clarified that certain economic indicators are not predicting a recession regardless of the lower figures. However, the comments on interest rates and keeping them unchanged for a longer period can pressure the price of the index. Will The SNP500 Continue Declining? The FedWatch tool indicated a 92% chance of a pause in this month’s Fed Rate Decision, but the figure has risen to 97%. If the possibility of a rate cut continues to be unlikely in the near future, the SNP500 may continue to remain under pressure. Currently, the VIX, an index used as an indication of risk, is trading more than 4.00% higher. For this reason, the VIX continues to indicate a poor performance in the short-term. Asian and European indices are trading lower this morning as are US indices. As a result, the performance of the global stock market shows a ‘risk off’ sentiment. SNP500 - Technical Analysis The price of the SNP500 is currently trading 0.73% lower and gains bearish momentum as the European market opens. In the 2-hour timeframe, the price is trading below the main Moving Averages and VWAP. The index also remains within the ‘sell’ zone of the RSI and MACD. On the 3-minute chart, the price remains below the 200-bar SMA and sell signals may continue to materialize for as long as the price remains below this level. Key Takeaways: The SNP500 has declined for three consecutive weeks, hitting its lowest level since September 2024. The main cause of pressure is from Trump’s trade policies and recession concerns. Weaker-than-expected US employment data raised caution. However, the Fed reassured markets, stating there is no imminent recession and no rush to adjust interest rates. The FedWatch tool now shows a 97% chance of a rate pause, reducing hopes for near-term cuts. Technical indicators suggest continued bearish momentum, with the index trading below key moving averages and remaining in the sell zone on RSI. [b]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.[/b] [b]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/b] Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to register for FREE! [url=https://analysis.hfm.com/][b]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/b][/url] [b]Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets[/b] [b]Disclaimer:[/b] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. -
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AllForexnews replied to AllForexnews's topic in Fundamental Analysis
Date: 7th March 2025. How Will Gold React After Today’s Non-Farm Employment Change? As the US employment data approaches, Gold continues to trade sideways showing range-bound trading conditions. This is primarily due to investors waiting for further data to determine Gold’s intrinsic value. How will today’s Non-Farm Payroll release influence the price of Gold? Will Gold Break Out of Its Range After Today’s NFP Release? The Non-Farm Employment Change will be in the spotlight as investors expect the figure to remain relatively low. However, traders are also focused on the Unemployment Rate and Average Monthly Earnings. If this afternoon’s employment data reads similar to current expectations, the price of Gold may continue witnessing range-bound trading conditions. In this scenario, the average price of the past three days would be key. The average price is currently $2,913.70. Whereas, if the NFP indicates an employment sector which continues to show resilience and strong data, the price of Gold may witness a decline. This is mainly due to strong employment data strengthening the USD, boosting the US stocks, and reducing 2025 rate cuts. If the price of Gold is to decline, Moving Averages indicate the price could fall between $2,899.00 and $2,906.75 in the short term. However, this would depend on how much stronger the employment data is. On the other hand, if the Unemployment Rate rises and the Non-Farm Employment Change falls below 155,000, Gold could quickly regain momentum. The weaker employment data would increase the chances of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in March or could make a cut certain for May 2025. As a result, the weaker US Dollar could support Gold as well as the market’s lower risk appetite. Gold’s safe haven status can come into play if data is significantly weaker. US Employment Sector Yesterday’s labour market data showed initial jobless claims rose to 221,000, lower than the expected 234,000 and the previous 242,000. The four-week average increased slightly to 224,250, while total benefit recipients climbed from 1.855 million to 1.897 million, exceeding the 1.88 million forecast. However, the main negativity came from the ADP Employment Change which fell to 77,000, the lowest in three years. The labour market remains under pressure, showing signs of cooling. If Friday’s federal data confirms this trend, the chances of Gold reaching the $3,000 target set by Wall Street increases. China Continues Boosting Gold Demand! China has launched a pilot program allowing ten national insurance companies to invest in gold through standard contracts, limited to 1% of their available assets. The country continues to be one of the countries driving demand for the commodity significantly higher along with Russia, India and Turkey. With industry revenues exceeding $700 billion, even modest investments could boost global demand for gold by 1.5–2.0% according to reports. Gold (XAUUSD) - Technical Analysis The White House announced a one-month delay on the 25% tariff for vehicles under the USMCA trade agreement. Economists also advise that the US is looking to negotiate with both Canada and Mexico on trade policies. If an agreement is made, the price of Gold may decline due to a stronger US Dollar and higher market sentiment. Currently, the US Dollar Index trades 0.37% lower and is the worst-performing currency of the day which is a positive for Gold. In terms of technical analysis and price action, the asset has been witnessing range-bound conditions between $2,891 and $2,929.85. If these conditions are to continue the average price of $2,913.70 will be key and may be continuously hit. However, the price remains slightly above the 75-Bar EMA and 100-Bar SMA indicating a slight bullish bias. The instrument is also trading above the VWAP and RSI 50.00 level which is another positive for bullish traders. Join today’s Live Analysis Session: Key Takeaway Points: Gold remains range-bound as investors await US employment data, with the NFP release likely to determine its next move. Analysts expect the US to add a further 159,000 jobs and the Unemployment Rate to remain at 4.00%. Strong employment data could strengthen the US Dollar and push Gold lower. While weaker data may boost Gold by increasing Fed rate cut expectations. China’s new gold investment program and ongoing demand from Russia, India, and Turkey could further drive global gold prices higher. Technical indicators suggest a slightly bullish bias, but Gold remains within a defined range between $2,891 and $2,929.85, with $2,913.70 as a key level. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. -
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AllForexnews replied to AllForexnews's topic in Fundamental Analysis
[b]Date: 6th March 2025.[/b] [b]The Euro is on The Rise But Is the Currency Overbought?[/b] The Euro rose more than 4% over four days making it the currency’s best performance since COVID lockdowns. The upward price movement is primarily driven by the European bond market which saw its worst day since the 1990s. However, investors are now evaluating whether the Euro is overbought. Why Is the Euro Increasing in Value? The Euro's rise is driven by the EU's new ‘re-arm’ plans, announced by the European Commission President. This is in response to the US suspending military aid to Ukraine. Analysts believe increased military spending will strengthen the Euro in the short term, but its impact may fade, especially if the Ukraine-Russia conflict ends. The US is looking to achieve this by halting aid and no longer sharing military intelligence. In addition, the German Bond fell and witnessed their worst day in almost 30 years. As a result the higher bond yields also continue to support the Euro. Currently, the Euro Index is trading 0.09% higher and is only witnessing a decline against the Japanese Yen. However, the price movement of the Euro will also depend on the European Central Bank and potential Trump Tariffs. Economists remain convinced that Trump's tariff threats are serious and will be imposed on the EU. Just last week, he announced that Washington will impose 25% tariffs on Europe-made ‘cars and all other things’. On April 2nd, Washington plans to introduce another round of ‘reciprocal’ tariffs, adding to those already in effect. Germany remains particularly vulnerable, as a large portion of its industry relies on exports to the US. This can potentially have a negative effect on the Euro and the European stock market. Is the European Central Bank a Risk for the Euro? The European Central Bank is due to announce its rate decision this afternoon and conduct a press conference thereafter. The ECB may potentially aim to calm the market after German Bonds took a hit. If the ECB remains dovish and also reassures the market of the Eurozone’s fiscal and monetary policy, the Euro can retrace in the short term. Analysts currently advise today’s ECB meeting will most likely be the most interesting in years and the most unpredictable. Markets are expecting a rate of 2.65% from the ECB. Analysts at Morgan Stanley believe the ECB will maintain its "dovish" stance in March and April to support the economy, especially as inflation slowed to 2.4% in February from 2.5% the previous month, nearing the 2.0% target. If the ECB advice rates are likely to continue falling in 2025, the Euro will struggle to maintain bullish momentum. EURUSD - Technical Analysis and Indicators The EURUSD is still witnessing indications of bullish price movement on the 2-hour chart and fundamentals also support the upward price movement. However, simultaneously, the price is obtaining indications the currency is overbought in the short to medium term. The EURUSD is trading above the overbought level on the RSI and is obtaining a divergence signal on most timeframes. Therefore, the possibility of the price being overbought and retracing remains, but the price action will depend on the ECB. Until the ECB’s rate decision and press conference, the average price at 1.08000 will be key as it has been so far today. Key Takeaway Points: The Euro surged over 4% in four days, its best performance since COVID lockdowns, driven by European bond market turmoil. The EU’s ‘re-arm’ plans and rising German bond yields boost the Euro, but US tariffs and ECB decisions may impact its trend. The ECB’s upcoming rate decision and monetary policy stance could shape short-term price movements, with a dovish approach expected. Despite strong fundamentals, RSI overbought levels and divergence signals suggest a possible retracement, depending on the ECB. [b]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.[/b] [b]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/b] Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to register for FREE! [url=https://analysis.hfm.com/][b]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/b][/url] [b]Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets[/b] [b]Disclaimer:[/b] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.