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[b]Date: 1st August 2025.[/b] [b]Bank of England Rate Cut in Focus: Sterling Slips as Fed Holds Steady.[/b] The Bank of England (BoE) is widely expected to cut interest rates at its upcoming meeting on August 7, bringing the Bank Rate down from 4.25% to 4.00%. This decision would mark a continuation of the central bank’s cautious and gradual monetary easing cycle as the UK grapples with persistent inflation and sluggish economic growth. Although some Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members had already called for a cut during the last meeting, the majority opted to wait, citing the need for a more measured approach. However, with inflation moderating and economic headwinds building, the conditions now appear more favourable for a rate reduction. BoE Monetary Policy Outlook: Gradual Easing Ahead BoE Governor Andrew Bailey is expected to reinforce the central bank’s steady approach to rate adjustments. So far in 2025, the BoE has acted every three months, a pattern likely to continue through the end of the year. Despite projections that headline inflation will rise to 3.7% by September, mainly due to energy base effects and regulated prices, the Bank anticipates that consumer price inflation (CPI) will fall back toward the 2% target in the medium term. A sluggish UK growth backdrop supports further easing, with an additional cut forecast in November 2025, and a terminal rate of 3.50% expected by February 2026. Still, uncertainties remain. The inflation and rate path will depend heavily on global economic developments, fiscal policy, and evolving UK–US trade dynamics. UK–US Trade Deal and Updated Growth Projections The upcoming BoE meeting will also include an updated Monetary Policy Report and revised economic forecasts. Investors will watch closely for how the UK’s new trade agreement with the United States affects the central bank’s growth outlook. While the impact of the 10% baseline tariffs may be limited in isolation, broader effects on global supply chains could influence inflation. Some economists argue that tariffs may reduce inflation if exporters cut prices to redirect goods away from the US, but significant supply chain disruptions could have the opposite effect. UK PMI Weakness Reflects Fragile Economic Sentiment Recent economic data points to weak momentum in the UK economy. The S&P Global flash PMI for July showed a drop in the Composite Output Index to 51.0, a two-month low. Although the manufacturing sector improved slightly, it remained in contraction territory, while the services PMI fell from 52.8 in June to 51.2, still in expansion, but signalling a slowdown. This decline in business activity suggests that growth is likely to remain soft, with businesses citing reduced new work and persistent caution following the fiscal tightening introduced in April. Labour Market and Wage Trends in the Spotlight The UK labour market remains a key variable for the BoE. Survey data from the services sector highlighted strong wage inflation, with businesses attempting to pass on the cost of increased National Insurance contributions and the higher minimum wage. These cost pressures have kept consumer prices elevated, even as demand cools. At the same time, businesses have started to shed staff, indicating that labour market slack may be building faster than previously anticipated. If this trend continues, it could help curb wage growth, offering additional disinflationary pressure. Household Savings Surge Underscores Consumer Caution Another factor reinforcing the case for further easing is the increase in household savings. Data from June revealed a sharp rise in deposits with banks and building societies, which climbed by £7.8 billion, compared to £4.3 billion in May, and significantly above the six-month average. Much of this increase was allocated to Individual Savings Accounts (ISAs), possibly due to concerns about potential changes in government policy on deposit allowances. The shift toward saving rather than spending suggests that consumers remain cautious, posing a risk to domestic demand and justifying further monetary stimulus. BoE Quantitative Tightening Policy Under Scrutiny In addition to interest rate decisions, the BoE's approach to quantitative tightening (QT) remains in focus. Unlike its global peers, the BoE has been actively selling assets in the open market, contributing to a rise in long-term yields and increasing government borrowing costs. While some policymakers have pushed for an end to active QT, most analysts expect the BoE to reduce the annual pace of asset sales from £100 billion to £75 billion in 2026. There are signs of tightening liquidity as well, with usage of the BoE’s long-term repo facility nearing record highs. The Bank’s new framework, which allows markets to bid for reserves, has created more uncertainty around reserve scarcity as the balance sheet contracts. Although no major announcement is expected on QT during the August meeting, Governor Bailey may offer early signals ahead of the final decision in September. GBPUSD Slips Amid Fed Hold and Strong US Data The British Pound weakened against the US Dollar on Thursday, as GBPUSD fell to 1.3214, down from an intraday high of 1.3281. This move followed the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged, with two dissenters favouring a cut. Despite speculation surrounding future easing, fueled in part by former President Trump’s comments, Fed Chair Jerome Powell provided no clear forward guidance, stating that decisions will be taken meeting-by-meeting. The US Dollar gained further support from strong economic data. Initial Jobless Claims came in at 218,000, lower than the 224,000 estimate, confirming continued strength in the labour market. Inflation data also surprised to the upside, with Core PCE rising to 2.8% YoY in June and Headline PCE climbing to 2.6%, both above forecasts. This divergence in monetary policy between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England has placed additional downward pressure on GBPUSD. While markets see a 65% chance of the Fed holding steady in September, expectations for a BoE cut next week stand at 80%. The growing gap in policy stance has tilted the currency pair into bearish territory. GBPUSD Technical Analysis: Bearish Bias Builds Technically, GBPUSD has broken below its 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.3334, breaching key psychological support at 1.3300. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has also shifted into bearish territory, reinforcing downside momentum. If the pair falls decisively below 1.3200, the next support level is found at 1.3100, with the 200-day SMA at 1.2977 offering further downside targets. On the upside, only a close above 1.3250 would signal a potential recovery toward the 1.3300 zone. Conclusion: All Eyes on August 7 BoE Meeting As the Bank of England prepares to cut rates, the combination of softening growth, persistent cost pressures, and cautious consumers strengthens the case for further easing. At the same time, the Fed’s steady stance, backed by robust US data, continues to drive GBPUSD lower as monetary policy divergence takes centre stage. Markets will closely monitor the BoE’s tone, the updated forecasts, and any hints regarding quantitative tightening adjustments. With volatility likely to remain high, traders should remain alert to shifts in inflation expectations, labour market dynamics, and central bank messaging. [b]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.[/b] [b]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/b] Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to register for FREE! [url=https://analysis.hfm.com/][b]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/b][/url] [b]Andria Pichidi HFMarkets[/b] [b]Disclaimer:[/b] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[b]Date: 31st July 2025.[/b] [b]BOJ Hints at Rate Hike with Inflation Upgrade, But Trump Tariffs Delay Clear Signal.[/b] BOJ Moves Closer to Tightening, But Timing Still Murky The Bank of Japan (BOJ) kept interest rates steady at 0.5% during its July policy meeting but raised its inflation forecasts more than expected, signalling that the era of ultra-accommodative monetary policy may be drawing to a close. However, Governor Kazuo Ueda and the policy board refrained from giving any guidance on the timing of the next hike, citing ‘high uncertainties’ stemming from new US trade tariffs and domestic political instability. Inflation Forecast Raised to 2.7%: What It Means In its quarterly economic outlook, the BOJ lifted its FY2025 inflation forecast to 2.7% from 2.2% and nudged up its projections for 2026 and 2027. The upgrades reflect ongoing price pressures, particularly from food and commodity imports. The BOJ’s upward revision of its price outlook does make it seem like a rate hike is coming closer. But Ueda reiterated that supply-side factors are driving inflation, suggesting policymakers are reluctant to respond with rate hikes unless wage growth and demand-driven inflation strengthen further. Tariffs Keep Policy Outlook Cautious A major source of uncertainty is President Trump’s new wave of tariffs, including on Japanese autos and industrial goods. While Japan reached a partial agreement with the US to reduce some levies, the BOJ is waiting to see how these measures affect exports, corporate profits, and investment. This caution was reflected in a softened tone in the BOJ’s risk assessment, shifting from ‘extremely high’ to simply ‘high’ trade-related uncertainties. ‘There have been positive developments in trade and other policies,’ the BOJ noted, but added that more data is needed to support a rate hike. Political Backdrop: Another Obstacle Japan’s domestic political scene is adding further complexity. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s coalition suffered a significant setback in the recent upper house elections. Some members of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party are now pushing for leadership changes, which could impact fiscal policy and BOJ coordination. Any rate move could become politically sensitive, especially if borrowing costs rise at a time when consumer inflation is already weighing on household budgets. Market Reaction: Yen, Bonds, and Global Spillovers The yen initially rallied following the announcement, but lost ground as Ueda failed to provide forward guidance on rates. USDJPY remains near the psychologically important 150 level. Meanwhile, Japanese government bond yields have inched higher, with the 10-year yield approaching 1%, spilling over into global bond markets. US Treasuries also saw upward pressure after Powell’s hawkish tone, tightening financial conditions worldwide. What’s Next? Eyes on December While the BOJ appears to be preparing the ground for a year-end rate hike, the central bank is signalling that it will not move prematurely. The next few months will be critical as officials monitor wage growth, trade developments, and domestic demand. It is expected that the BOJ will act by December if growth holds up and the tariff impact is manageable. [b]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.[/b] [b]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/b] Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to register for FREE! [url=https://analysis.hfm.com/][b]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/b][/url] [b]Andria Pichidi HFMarkets[/b] [b]Disclaimer:[/b] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[b]Date: 30th July 2025.[/b] [b]Global Markets Mixed as US-China Trade Talks Stall, Fed Holds Rates, and Euro Retreats.[/b] US-China Trade Tensions Weigh on Investor Sentiment Financial markets opened the midweek session on a cautious note as the latest round of US-China trade talks concluded in Stockholm without a definitive agreement. Both countries indicated willingness to extend the current tariff truce set to expire on August 12, but no final decision has been reached. China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng described the discussions as “constructive,” noting that both sides agreed to continue working toward an extension. Meanwhile, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer confirmed the topic was discussed but emphasised that any extension still requires approval from President Donald Trump. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent added that although the dialogue was ‘fulsome,’ the Chinese may have ‘jumped the gun’ in announcing a pause. Strategic concerns such as China’s purchase of Iranian oil and export of dual-use technology to Russia were also raised. Asian and US Markets React to Trade and Earnings Headwinds Asian equities responded with mixed movements. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slipped 1.2%, while the Shanghai Composite gained 0.2%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 declined marginally as losses in automakers like Toyota and Honda offset gains in tech stocks. Meanwhile, Australia’s ASX 200 and South Korea’s Kospi posted solid gains, while Taiwan’s Taiex and India’s Sensex advanced modestly. On Wall Street, US stock indices edged lower as traders digested corporate earnings and growing global uncertainty. The S&P 500 fell 0.3%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.5%, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.4%. High-profile movers included SoFi Technologies, which surged 7.4%, and UPS, which plunged 9.2% on weaker-than-expected results. Health care giant UnitedHealth Group dropped 5.8% after disappointing earnings, while Novo Nordisk shed over 21% on lowered 2025 guidance for its Wegovy weight-loss drug. Federal Reserve Maintains Rates Amid Inflation and Tariff Uncertainty The Federal Reserve began its much-anticipated policy meeting with expectations firmly anchored in a decision to keep interest rates steady. Despite renewed pressure from President Trump for cuts to stimulate the economy, policymakers are expected to wait for further data on inflation and the economic impact of tariffs. Treasury yields slipped as investors adopted a risk-off approach. A report showing a decline in US job openings added to concerns over a potential economic slowdown, though consumer confidence data remained relatively stable. Traders now await official signals from the Fed’s statement and Chair Jerome Powell’s comments. Euro Rally Stalls After EU-US Tariff Deal The euro, once one of the strongest-performing currencies of 2025, has started to lose momentum. After hitting a four-year high of $1.1830, it fell sharply this week following the EU's decision to impose a 15% tariff on US imports. Though less severe than President Trump’s initial threats, the new rate is a sharp increase from pre-2025 levels. Currently trading around $1.1554, the euro is on track for its first monthly loss this year, down nearly 2% in July. Analysts note that the rally had been driven by optimism over German fiscal stimulus and weakness in the US dollar. However, with a US-EU trade agreement reducing uncertainty and strong US earnings supporting the greenback, that trend has reversed. Bruno Schneller of Erlen Capital Management commented that the euro is facing a “reality check,” as speculative positions near record highs are now being unwound. CFTC data shows euro bullish bets have reached $18.4 billion, the highest since December 2023. Commodities: Copper and Oil Slide as China Stimulus Lacks Detail Commodities markets were also under pressure. Copper prices dropped 0.2% to $9,782 per ton on the London Metal Exchange, while iron ore declined by 0.9% in Singapore. Early gains were erased after a policy update from China’s Politburo failed to provide clear fiscal or monetary stimulus plans, disappointing traders who had anticipated stronger support. The global copper market has also been rattled by the Trump administration’s plan to impose a 50% tariff on copper imports starting August 1. With few details available, investors are bracing for widespread disruptions. Chile, the largest supplier of copper to the US, has requested exemptions, but US trade officials signalled that the measures would apply globally. Meanwhile, oil prices remained relatively flat. US crude hovered at $69.20 per barrel, while Brent crude edged up to $71.70. The broader energy market remains range-bound as traders await further developments in both monetary policy and international trade. Economic Data and Earnings to Drive Market Direction With the Fed expected to keep rates on hold, attention is shifting to upcoming economic reports and earnings data. The US is scheduled to release the latest Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, along with inflation readings that will offer deeper insight into the strength of the recovery. In Europe, economic growth figures will help shape expectations for further fiscal intervention. Investors are also awaiting any update on whether the US and China will officially extend their tariff truce, a development that could ease trade tensions and support global risk sentiment. What Traders Should Watch This Week As market volatility picks up, traders should monitor several key themes: The Federal Reserve’s rate decision and Powell’s press conference US jobs and inflation data Confirmation or collapse of the US-China tariff pause More Q2 earnings reports from major US corporations Reactions to the EU-US trade agreement Signals of additional stimulus from China With global macro conditions in flux and central bank policies on pause, the coming days could define the next phase of market momentum in stocks, commodities, and currencies. [b]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.[/b] [b]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/b] Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to register for FREE! [url=https://analysis.hfm.com/][b]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/b][/url] [b]Andria Pichidi HFMarkets[/b] [b]Disclaimer:[/b] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[b]Date: 29th July 2025.[/b] [b]All Eyes on the US: FOMC, Jobs Report, Earnings and Treasury Supply Dominate a Pivotal Week.[/b] It’s shaping up to be one of the busiest weeks of the year for US markets, with virtually every major catalyst on the docket. From the FOMC decision and the July employment report to Treasury borrowing forecasts, corporate earnings, and key economic data releases, traders face a flood of information that could significantly sway bonds, equities, and the US dollar. Yet, with so many variables in play, clarity may remain elusive. The overlapping crosscurrents could result in choppy and indecisive trading as investors attempt to digest the implications for monetary policy, growth, and inflation expectations heading into the final months of 2025. Fed Expected to Hold Steady, But Watch for Dissent The Federal Open Market Committee meets Tuesday and Wednesday, and the consensus is firmly aligned around a pause in interest rates. Policymakers have consistently characterised the US economy as resilient and the labour market as solid—two factors that continue to justify patience on rate adjustments. However, inflation has cooled further in recent months, and concerns over slowing global demand and one-time tariff impacts have emboldened some officials. Notably, Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman have expressed dovish leanings, calling for a rate cut at this meeting—a position that puts them at odds with the broader committee. While FOMC dissents from governors are rare, both Waller and Bowman have already defied consensus in recent decisions. Waller previously opposed the decision to slow quantitative tightening, and Bowman dissented in September 2024, favouring a smaller 25 bp cut instead of the 50 bp move that was implemented. If both break ranks again this week, it would mark the first dual governor dissent since 1993, underscoring the growing debate within the Fed. Chair Powell’s press conference on Wednesday will be closely watched for signals on whether the central bank is preparing to shift its tone ahead of the next meeting in September. Markets are already pricing in a near 50/50 chance of a rate cut that month. July Jobs Report in Focus as Labour Market Remains Resilient The July nonfarm payrolls report, due Friday, will be a crucial input into the Fed’s September decision. Expectations point to a 120,000 job increase, a modest gain compared to previous months but still indicative of a labour market that is not deteriorating rapidly. Private payrolls are projected to rise by 100,000 after a 74,000 gain in June, while factory jobs are expected to hold flat following a 7,000 loss. The unemployment rate is forecast to tick up to 4.2% from 4.1%, as the labour market adjusts to sector-specific layoffs and restructuring—particularly from companies undergoing so-called DOGE cuts, where severance packages have delayed the appearance of actual unemployment. Wage growth is likely to continue at a moderate pace. Average hourly earnings are projected to rise 0.3% month-over-month, with the annual rate ticking up slightly to 3.8% from 3.7%. The average workweek is expected to remain at 34.2 hours for a second straight month. With another jobs report due before the September 16–17 FOMC meeting, the Fed will be watching closely to determine whether inflation remains subdued and whether labour market softness justifies a preemptive rate cut to stay ahead of a potential economic slowdown. Markets Price in Fall Rate Cuts Despite the expected hold this week, Fed funds futures are leaning toward a September rate cut. The October contract implies roughly 27 basis points of easing, while the December contract reflects nearly 44 bps in total cuts by year-end. That positioning underscores investor sensitivity to Powell’s tone on Wednesday. Any signs of softening—whether in the statement, the vote tally, or during the press conference—could fuel expectations for more aggressive easing later this year. Although the Fed has been cautious not to overcommit, the combination of slowing inflation, moderating wage growth, and global uncertainties is making the case for flexibility stronger. Powell may not open the door wide to cuts just yet, but even a small rhetorical shift could move markets. Other Key Catalysts: GDP, ISM, PCE, and Big Tech Earnings In addition to the Fed and labour market data, traders must also navigate a wave of critical releases. The second-quarter Advance GDP print, Employment Cost Index (ECI), PCE chain prices, and the ISM manufacturing report all offer insight into the strength of the US economy and inflation dynamics. Meanwhile, the Treasury Department is set to release Q3 and Q4 borrowing estimates, as well as details of the August refunding schedule—an event that could influence bond yields and market liquidity. On the corporate front, earnings season continues in full swing, with Apple, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft among the headline names reporting this week. The results from Big Tech could add volatility, especially if they reveal caution on consumer trends or AI-related capex. Conclusion: A Pivotal Week for the Fed and Financial Markets With the FOMC meeting, labour data, inflation indicators, Treasury supply, and earnings all on the calendar, this week could shape market direction for weeks to come. The Fed is expected to hold, but the potential for rare dovish dissents adds an element of intrigue. As the data rolls, and Powell addresses the press, traders will be seeking any clue on whether a September rate cut is truly on the table. Until then, expect volatility, uncertainty, and plenty of positioning as markets attempt to digest a whirlwind of economic signals. [b]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.[/b] [b]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/b] Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to register for FREE! [url=https://analysis.hfm.com/][b]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/b][/url] [b]Andria Pichidi HFMarkets[/b] [b]Disclaimer:[/b] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[b]Date: 28th July 2025.[/b] [b]Markets Rally as US-EU Tariff Deal Calms Trade War Fears.[/b] Financial markets and policymakers are cautiously optimistic that the feared economic fallout from Liberation Day may not fully materialise. Expectations of weak growth and surging inflation have started to ease, while optimism is building that trade tensions may be less damaging than anticipated. However, uncertainty remains elevated, with the August 1 tariff deadline fast approaching. Although we’re not out of the woods yet, recent developments suggest the path forward could be less volatile. The range of potential tariff outcomes has narrowed, and active trade negotiations are gradually clearing the fog. Still, the global economy continues to navigate a ‘wait-and-see’ landscape, and this week’s calendar is packed with central bank meetings, critical data releases, earnings reports, and bond supply that will shape investor sentiment. US-EU Trade Agreement: A Fragile Truce Over the weekend, the United States and the European Union struck a much-anticipated trade deal, agreeing to implement a 15% levy on a wide range of European exports, including autos. The outcome aligns closely with previous warnings from Brussels, offering a sense of relief that the standoff did not escalate further. The EU had prepared countermeasures that may have targeted US services—an area where the US runs a strong surplus with the bloc—but those plans came too late to influence the negotiations. Critics argue that Brussels should have taken a firmer approach earlier in the process. However, in the end, EU officials prioritised swift resolution and market stability, which now appears to have been the right call—equity markets surged to four-month highs following the announcement. As part of the agreement, the EU also pledged to purchase $750 billion in US energy products—a bold commitment considering the region’s recent pivot away from Russian gas toward US LNG. The bloc also committed to buying more US military equipment, in line with recent arms support agreements for Ukraine and NATO cooperation. Bloomberg Economics estimates that the new deal prevents the average effective US tariff rate from rising to 18%, keeping it at a more manageable 16%. Market Reaction: Risk Appetite Improves Equity markets responded positively to the news. The Euro Stoxx 50 posted a 0.6% gain, while the DAX lagged slightly but still closed higher. Southern European indices like the MIB and IBEX led the region’s rally. US futures also pointed higher, buoyed by the improved trade outlook. In Asia, Chinese stocks ended the day in the green, reflecting hopes that Washington and Beijing will extend their current trade truce. The Nikkei, however, slipped more than 1%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 edged down by 0.1%. In bond markets, eurozone yields declined as investors digested cautious commentary from ECB officials, while US Treasury yields ticked higher, with the 10-year rate approaching 4.40%. FX Markets: Dollar Gains on Trade Optimism Currency markets reflected the surge in risk appetite and the recalibration of rate expectations. The US dollar gained 0.6% intraday, with the DXY index trading near 98.26. The euro weakened against the greenback, dropping 0.8% to 1.166, a move likely welcomed by European exporters and policymakers, as a softer currency helps offset some of the tariff impact. Sterling outperformed earlier in the session but later pulled back, with GBPUSD correcting to 1.34. Meanwhile, the dollar gained ground against the franc and yen, rising 0.8% versus the Swiss franc and 0.5% against the yen, bringing USDJPY to 148.39. Commodities: Oil Climbs, Gold Eases Oil prices moved higher in tandem with stocks, as the trade agreement boosted global demand expectations. WTI rose 1.3% to $66.01 per barrel, while Brent gained 1.2% to $69.28. Investors now await further developments in US-China talks scheduled later today, with hopes that both sides will agree to extend their current truce. Gold prices were largely steady after a pre-weekend dip driven by stronger dollar sentiment and fading rate-cut bets. With the tariff deal confirmed and markets adjusting to tighter policy guidance, gold slipped modestly to $3,336.21 per ounce. Silver and copper also posted minor declines, down 0.15% and 0.28%, respectively. Copper prices, however, remain elevated ahead of a planned 50% tariff on US copper imports, set to take effect August 1. ECB Stays on Hold, Keeps Options Open The European Central Bank kept interest rates steady, with President Lagarde signalling that policymakers will retain flexibility ahead of the September meeting. While inflation fears have receded slightly, Lagarde made it clear that rate cuts are not guaranteed and that future decisions will depend heavily on incoming economic data and geopolitical developments. Her message was echoed by ECB Governing Council member Peter Kazimir, who warned against assuming a rate cut is imminent. He emphasised that only clear signs of labour market weakness would justify further easing. While recent inflation data is reassuring, Kazimir stressed the importance of vigilance, particularly in light of potential supply chain disruptions that could reignite price pressures. Outlook: Trade Relief Is Welcome, But Uncertainty Persists The US-EU trade agreement has provided temporary relief to markets, reducing tariff risks and boosting investor sentiment. Yet the broader picture remains uncertain. The August 1 deadline still looms, geopolitical tensions persist, and monetary policy paths are far from settled. As the global economy enters a critical phase, traders and investors will continue to monitor developments in trade policy, central bank decisions, and macroeconomic data. For now, markets are breathing a little easier—but the long-term trajectory is still unfolding. [b]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.[/b] [b]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/b] Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to register for FREE! [url=https://analysis.hfm.com/][b]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/b][/url] [b]Andria Pichidi HFMarkets[/b] [b]Disclaimer:[/b] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[b]Date: 25th July 2025.[/b] [b]Euro Strength Persists Amid ECB’s Temporary Policy Pause.[/b] The best-performing currency of 2025 is the Euro and continues to gain after the European Central Bank’s rate decision. After the ECB’s rate decision and press conference, the currency rose in value against all currencies. This also includes the Australian Dollar, which has seen the strongest gains this week so far. Why is the Euro witnessing strong gains despite multiple rate cuts, and what has the ECB said about the Euro’s strength? The Euro's Gains In 2025 The best-performing currencies in 2025 have been the Euro and Swiss Franc, which have both seen multiple rate cuts. Traditionally, currencies witnessing a dovish monetary policy tend to experience a weakening currency. So what is different here? The main reasons for the bullish price movement fall into three categories: European Fiscal Policy Portfolio Flow and Euro Hedges US Dollar Weakness These three factors are overpowering the negative impact of the lower interest rates. The European Union in 2025 has changed its fiscal policy rules related to borrowing and stimulus programs related to defence spending. Most investors deem this as a turn towards a fiscal expansionary policy while not triggering budget deficit concerns. One of the stimulus fund programs which are in the spotlight is the $500 billion German Fund, which aims to boost infrastructure and defence. In addition to this, global investors are looking to spread the risk of overexposure to US equities. As a result, the natural alternatives are European stocks such as the DAX, Euro Stoxx 50 and CAC. As interest in these stocks grows, demand for the euro increases as well. Furthermore, companies still investing in US indices are now using the Euro to hedge against the risks of a weakening Dollar, which could result in gains from the original investment. Previously, due to Dollar's strength, this was not practised with US Equity Investments. European Equity demand and euro-hedge positions are also increasing the demand for the Euro, and this also ties in with a weaker US Dollar. The US Dollar is currently the weakest currency of 2025, declining more than 9.50%. The main concern for investors is the trade policy uncertainty and the worsening US fiscal deficit. Investors are turning to the Euro as an alternative. The Euro Central Bank’s Rate Decision and Press Conference As European inflation is under control, the European Central Bank is likely to continue cutting interest rates in 2025. The main reason for the pause is uncertainty before the trade negotiations deadline on August 1st. Due to this, the ECB opted to keep the Main Refinancing Rate at 2.15%. President Lagarde noted that although inflation expectations are ‘firmly anchored’ near 2%, there are risks in both directions. Investors also note that the ECB President voiced concern over the risk of the Euro becoming too expensive and its domino effect on the economy. Many experts believe this also indicates the ECB would like to cut by at least a further two occasions. EURNZD - Technical Analysis and Major Gains EURNZD 4-Hour Chart The Euro is witnessing its strongest gains against the New Zealand Dollar. The EURNZD fell to a key support level and also formed a double bottom. As a result, the Euro quickly gained bullish momentum and continued to rise on Friday. The price of the EURNZD is trading above the 75-bar EMA and in the ‘buy’ zone of most oscillators. In addition to this, the exchange has been forming higher highs and lows on smaller timeframes. Moreover, the exchange rate remains below the major resistance levels while maintaining momentum. Resistance levels can currently be seen at 1.95830 and 1.96475. Key Takeaway Points: The Euro is 2025's top-performing currency, gaining despite multiple ECB rate cuts. Strong European fiscal policy and stimulus programs are boosting investor confidence in the Euro. Investors are shifting to European equities and using the Euro to hedge against a weakening US Dollar. The ECB held rates at 2.15% but signalled more interest rate cuts in 2025. [b]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.[/b] [b]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/b] Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to register for FREE! [url=https://analysis.hfm.com/][b]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/b][/url] [b]Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets[/b] [b]Disclaimer:[/b] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. 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Date: 24th July 2025. SNP500 Hits New Highs Backed by Strong Earnings and Trade Optimism. The SNP500 again renews its all-time highs after finding support from Alphabet stocks, NVIDIA, JP Morgan and Broadcom. The SNP500 is now trading 8.40% higher in 2025, more or less matching the performance of the NASDAQ. The main driver of the current upward trend is recent quarterly earnings reports and the US-Japan trade deal. Alphabet Quarterly Earnings Report There were both positive and negative data from Alphabet’s earnings report, but the stock rose 1.72% after market close. The quarterly report showed the company’s revenue and operating income rose 14%, cloud revenue 32% and the earnings per share rose 22% to $2.31. The figures continue to beat projections, which is one of the reasons why the stock has risen 1.72% and more than 14% over the past month. Google Cloud revenue rose 32% to $13.6 billion, driven by strong growth in core GCP products, AI infrastructure, and generative AI solutions. AI remains a key driver, with Alphabet’s Gemini model now integrated across its cloud services and productivity tools. Although still behind OpenAI’s ChatGPT in user adoption, Gemini is helping Alphabet attract more enterprise clients. In addition to this, the search figures also remain steady and within the projected range. According to the report, Google searches make up approximately 90% of the global searches. However, one of the main negatives from the report is AI spending compared to ROI (return on investment). Alphabet reported $22.4 billion in capital spending, well above the $18.2 billion expected. It also raised its 2025 capex forecast from $75 billion to $85 billion, highlighting its aggressive investment in data centres, AI chips, and infrastructure. If the return on investment from AI products read higher, experts believe the stock increase would have been higher than the current rise. Nonetheless, the increase continues to support the NASDAQ. SNP500 Components and Stocks Of the SNP500’s most influential 15 stocks, 74% rose in value on Wednesday. In addition to this, the VIX index continues to decline, as does the Put and Call Ratio. All these factors provide strong buy signals for the SNP500 and stocks in general. The main stocks, bar Alphabet stocks, which are supporting the recent upward price movements, are NVIDIA, Broadcom and JP Morgan. NVIDIA is the most influential stock for the SNP500, holding a weight of more than 7.00%. NVIDIA stocks rose 2.25% on Wednesday and a further 1.20% after market close. Broadcom stocks, which hold a weight of 2.33%, are one of the best-performing stocks on Thursday. Both the technology sector and banking stocks continue to perform well while defensive stocks underperform due to the ‘risk-on’ appetite of the market. The higher investor sentiment is mainly being prompted by the US-Japan trade deal. SNP500 Technical Analysis SNP500 5-Minute Chart The SNP500 continues to form higher highs and higher lows, ensuring the wave ensuing continues to point to an upward trend. The price also remains above the trend-line, the 75-bar Exponential Moving Average and in the ‘buy’ zone of most oscillators. However, the price is trading below the day’s VWAP, and order flow currently points towards limited buy demand. For this reason, the outlook for the SNP500 remains bullish, but bullish momentum needs to be regained. European PMI reports from earlier this morning read positively, if the global PMI data continues to beat expectations, bullish momentum may gain speed. The price is also close to the 200-bar EMA, which can act as a support level. Traders will monitor if the price bounces off this level. Key Takeaway Points: The SNP500 hits new all-time highs, driven by Alphabet, NVIDIA, Broadcom, and JP Morgan. Alphabet’s earnings beat forecasts, with strong cloud growth and steady search performance boosting investor confidence. Capital spending rose to $22.4B, with AI investments raising concerns over return on investment. Technical Analysis remain bullish, but momentum needs to recover; global PMI data could reignite buying pressure. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[b]Date: 23rd July 2025.[/b] [b]Nikkei225 Surges on US-Japan Trade Deal: Can the Rally Hold?[/b] President Trump confirms that US and Japanese negotiators have agreed on a trade deal that covers more than just the reciprocal trade tariffs imposed by the US. As a result, the NIKKEI225 increased 4.45%, the strongest bullish price movement since April 10th 2025. Can the NIKKEI225 maintain the current bullish momentum? US-Japan Trade Deal On July 22nd, President Trump informed journalists that the US and Japan have agreed on a trade deal after weeks of negotiations. Previously, the NIKKEI225’s price momentum was muted by fear of trade tariffs and trade clashes with the US. Over the past 2 weeks the White House advised they were aiming for 25% tariffs on Japan and other Asian countries. Instead of 25% reciprocal tariffs on Japanese imports, the US will impose a 15% rate, which is significantly lower than the initial proposal. In return, there will be $550 billion worth of Japanese investments in the US, with 90% of the returns returning to American stakeholders. The two countries also confirm a joint venture on liquefied natural gas from Alaska. However, a negative factor for Japan continues to be the Steel and Aluminium tariffs, which will remain at 50%. The deal provides much-needed relief for the Japanese economy and stocks. Particularly, the car industry. Toyota stocks are currently surging 14% during this morning’s session. Can The NIKKEI225 Maintain Its Bullish Momentum? The NIKKEI225 rose 4.45% forming a bullish breakout and increasing to its highest level since July 17th 2025. On smaller timeframes, such as the 15-minute chart, the RSI and other oscillators are indicating an overbought price. The price has also lost momentum since the opening of the EU session. However, investors should note that an increase of 4.50% is not out of character for the NIKKEI225. The last time the index saw a similar increase was on April 10th, where the price rose more than 9.00%, almost double the current increase. Therefore, upward price movement remains possible despite overbought indications on smaller timeframes. However, it is vital for bullish momentum to be regained. Traders should also note that the price is not at an all-time high despite the magnitude of the recent bullish price movement. The all-time high remains 2.70% higher than the current price. This level is a known resistance level, and traders should be cautious of its psychological edge over investors. Though a further increase is needed to reach this level. Yen and BOJ Supports NIKKEI225 Growth Other positive factors for the Nikkei 225 include a weaker yen and no rate hikes from the Bank of Japan. The yen has declined following upper house elections, where the ruling LDP–Komeito coalition failed to secure 50 of 124 seats, its second straight defeat after losing the lower house last fall. While Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba remains in power, his minority government now depends on opposition support for economic action, which experts say will be challenging. Ishiba has stated he will stay in office until a US trade deal is finalised, which it now has been. Lastly, the Bank of Japan has not raised interest rates in six months. This is despite earlier expert expectations that the policy rate would rise to 1.00%. The lack of interest rate hikes supports the NIKKEI225. However, technical analysts will be keen for the instrument to rise above 41240.50 in order for buy signals to return. NIKKEI225 12-Hour Chart Key Takeaway Points President Trump confirmed a trade deal with Japan, reducing proposed tariffs from 25% to 15%. This is sparking a 4.45% surge in the Nikkei 225, which rises to its highest level in 2025. Despite the strong breakout, technical indicators show overbought conditions on small timeframes. Buy signals remain for the medium-term. A declining yen and the Bank of Japan’s six-month pause on rate hikes continue to support the Nikkei 225. Toyota stocks increase by more than 14% and Japan’s car industry rebounds as a trade deal is agreed. [b]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.[/b] [b]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/b] Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to register for FREE! [url=https://analysis.hfm.com/][b]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/b][/url] [b]Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets[/b] [b]Disclaimer:[/b] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 21st July 2025. Can The NASDAQ Maintain Its Bullish Trend? The NASDAQ rose to a new all-time high on Friday, almost bringing its 2025 gains to double-digit figures. The index’s gains for 2025 are currently 9.96% and are the 3rd best performing index after the DAX and Euro Stoxx 50. The NASDAQ is also performing well during this morning’s Asian Session, rising a further 0.33%. Will the NASDAQ end the week on a high? EU vs US: Trade Battle In 2025, most of the trade negotiations were focused on China, as were economists and investors. However, the EU’s volume of trade with the US is very similar to that of China. Therefore, investors will be eager to see if the two parties can negotiate an agreement or at least agree to a later deadline. President Trump is applying pressure to raise tariffs on European goods, and the deadline is approaching. According to Bloomberg, the US is likely to harden its stance in the last days of negotiations. Ongoing negotiations with both the EU and China aim to avert further escalation ahead of the key August 1st deadline. This week will be key for negotiations and is likely to trigger a lot of volatility, but so far, it has not sparked a decline. However, if an agreement is not reached, the most likely response will be to sell stocks as investors will instantly fear the repercussions of higher tariffs. This was also something seen in February, March and April and resulted in a stock market crash. The price has now fully corrected and risen to new all-time highs. However, this is only likely to continue if tariffs are avoided or reduced. The SNP500 and Nasdaq have been able to reach new highs over the past week only due to strong retail sales, falling jobless claims, and improved business sentiment, while Treasury yields dipped on Fed policy speculation. Retail Sales rose to 0.6% and Weekly Unemployment Claims were 12,000 lower than projections. Quarterly Earnings Reports Even though trade negotiations are stealing the spotlight, earnings reports will continue to create volatility. They will also help investors determine potential price movements in the coming days and weeks. The main quarterly earnings reports will come from Tesla and Alphabet (Google). Alphabet is due to release its quarterly earnings report on Wednesday after the market closes. Currently, the stock holds a weight of 7.50% making the company the 4th most influential company for the NASDAQ. In the previous quarter, the stock easily beat the earnings per share projections, but the price came under a lot of pressure from the 2025 stock market crash. Currently, the stock is still trading 2.45% lower in 2025. However, if the revenue and earnings per share again beaten expectations, the stock is likely to rise. The average increase seen when the company has beat earnings is 4.00%. Tesla is also due to release their earnings report after market close on Wednesday. The stock has been on a rollercoaster ride, partially due to sales figures but also due to external factors. The stock is currently trading 13% lower in 2025. Tesla's earnings projections are only $0.28 per share. This is even lower than the first quarter's projections, but the price volatility will depend on whether the actual figures are higher than the current projections. Buyers would like the earnings per share to rise to at least $0.35, which was the earnings from the projections for the previous quarter. NASDAQ (USA100) - Technical Analysis NASDAQ 15-Minute Chart Despite risks from potential bad earnings reports and trade tensions between the EU, China and the US, technical analysis continues to point to bullish price movements. The price continues to form higher highs and lows as well as remain above Moving Averages and the VWAP. The RSI also remains above 50.00 and is not witnessing signs of divergence. Other signals of bullish price movement are the VIX index, which is trading 1.50% lower during today’s Asian Session. All global indices are also trading higher, except the Euro Stoxx 50 and the Put/Call ratio slightly dips. All these factors support a ‘risk-on’ sentiment, but earnings and trade negotiations will need to continue to support this. Key Takeaway Points: NASDAQ nears double-digit 2025 gains, hitting record highs and rising further in the Asian session. US–EU trade tensions escalate ahead of the August 1st tariff deadline, risking market volatility. The NASDAQ’s performance is deeply entwined with the outcome of these negotiations. Earnings from Tesla and Alphabet this week could drive sharp price moves depending on results. Technical indicators remain bullish, with rising prices, low VIX, and strong RSI despite macro risks. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[b]Date: 18th July 2025.[/b] [b]Wall Street Hits New Highs Amid Strong Data, Optimism Over Fed Stability, and Tech Earnings Boom.[/b] Wall Street continued its record-breaking rally as stronger-than-expected US retail sales and jobless claims data reinforced confidence in the resilience of the US economy. Investor sentiment was further boosted by solid corporate earnings and easing fears over potential leadership changes at the Federal Reserve. The Nasdaq surged 0.74% to close at a new all-time high of 20,884, driven by gains in major tech stocks, while the S&P 500 climbed 0.54% to reach a record 6,297. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also advanced 0.52%, contributing to a broadly positive session across US equities. FOMO Drives Rally; Tech, Crypto, and Earnings in Focus Momentum was further fueled by FOMO (fear of missing out) as investors piled into the rally. Nvidia and Lucid led gains in the tech sector, with Lucid jumping 36% on bullish sentiment. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) reported record-breaking profits, adding to the enthusiasm. PepsiCo shares also surged following better-than-expected revenue and earnings figures, while United Airlines rose 3.1%. After the bell, Netflix reported robust quarterly results, likely setting the tone for the next trading session. Cryptocurrencies also moved higher after the US Congress passed the stablecoin regulation bill, injecting fresh optimism into the digital asset space. Bond Market Stabilises Amid Fed Leadership Clarity Treasury yields initially declined as concerns over a potential dismissal of Fed Chair Jerome Powell subsided, although the broader risk-on environment eventually erased some of the early gains in bonds. Japan’s Markets on Edge Ahead of Key Upper House Election Investors are closely watching Japan’s upcoming upper house election, which could have far-reaching implications for financial markets, government policy, and the direction of fiscal stimulus. The coalition led by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is facing mounting pressure, with opinion polls indicating a possible defeat. Japanese Government Bonds Tumble; Yen Weakens Sharply Japanese government bonds (JGBs) experienced a sharp sell-off, sending 30-year yields soaring to a historic high of 3.20%, while the yen dropped to multi-month lows against the US dollar and euro. This market turbulence reflects growing concern that a new government may accelerate fiscal spending through increased JGB issuance. Three Key Election Scenarios for Markets: LDP Retains Majority – Bullish for Bonds and Yen A victory for Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) coalition could stabilise the bond market and support the yen. Analysts believe that such an outcome would reduce expectations for aggressive fiscal spending. LDP Loses Majority – Policy Shift and Leadership Change? If the ruling coalition fails to secure 50 seats, Ishiba could be replaced. One potential successor, Sanae Takaichi, supports renewed monetary easing, an outcome that could spark volatility in both the yen and Japanese equities. Opposition Surge – Market Disruption Likely A strong performance by populist and reformist parties such as Sanseito could upend markets. Proposals to cut or eliminate Japan’s consumption tax may result in sharply higher long-term yields and further sell-offs in JGBs. Crude Oil Extends Gains as US Resilience and Tight Supply Lift Sentiment Oil prices rallied for a second straight session amid signs that the US economy remains resilient despite ongoing trade tensions. Brent crude approached the $70 mark, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovered near $68. Backwardation in the oil futures market, where near-term prices are higher than future contracts, suggests tight supply conditions. This comes even as OPEC+ continues to unwind production cuts. Diesel Market Tightness Supports Oil Prices Gasoil stocks in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub dropped to their lowest seasonal levels since 2022, further supporting oil prices. Analysts at Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs noted that inventory builds in non-price-setting regions are unlikely to derail the bullish trend. Bitcoin Set to Reach New Highs as ETF Demand and Regulations Drive Rally Bitcoin’s price trajectory remains bullish, with the cryptocurrency recently surpassing $120,000, and analysts projecting a high of $162,000 in 2025. According to UK-based fintech firm Finder, some experts even forecast a peak of $250,000 before year-end. The bullish momentum is driven by a combination of favourable regulations, increasing institutional demand, and the rise of cryptocurrency ETFs, which offer more accessible exposure to Bitcoin and other digital assets. EU’s MiCA Regulation a Game-Changer The EU’s Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) has been a key catalyst, providing regulatory clarity that is attracting more institutional investors to the space. According to Zondacrypto CEO Przemysław Kral, the alignment of regulatory progress and broader adoption is fueling this unprecedented rally. Bottom Line: Global Markets Surge Amid Economic Optimism, Policy Shifts, and Tech Momentum From Wall Street highs to Japan’s political uncertainty and the global oil rally, investors are navigating a dynamic landscape. With strong earnings, shifting policy expectations, and the continued evolution of crypto markets, financial markets are poised for more volatility, and opportunity in the weeks ahead. [b]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.[/b] [b]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/b] Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to register for FREE! [url=https://analysis.hfm.com/][b]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/b][/url] [b]Andria Pichidi HFMarkets[/b] [b]Disclaimer:[/b] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 17th July 2025. Global Markets Mixed Amid Bond Yield Moves, UK Jobs Data, and Japan Trade Concerns. Asian markets posted broad-based gains on Thursday, following a strong finish on Wall Street. European equities also opened higher across the board, while US stock futures remain narrowly mixed in pre-market trade. However, rising global bond yields and mixed economic data continue to weigh on market sentiment. Bond Yields Climb Globally Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) closed stronger, pushing the 10-year yield down by 1.9 basis points. However, US Treasury yields quickly reversed early gains, with the 10-year yield climbing to 4.48%, up 2.4 basis points. Meanwhile, Germany’s 10-year Bund yield rose 1.2 basis points, and the UK’s 10-year Gilt added 2.6 basis points, reflecting market jitters around global inflation and interest rate expectations. UK Labour Market Data Strengthens Rate Cut Bets The UK labour market surprised to the downside, with the ILO unemployment rate rising to 4.7% in the three months to May, up from 4.6%. While total employment increased by 134,000 during the period, more recent data showed a drop of 41,000 payrolled employees in June, following a 25,000 decline the previous month. Jobless claims also rose by 25,900 in June. At the same time, wage growth showed signs of deceleration. Headline pay growth slowed to 5.0% from 5.4%, while regular pay (excluding bonuses) also eased to 5.0%. These figures, combined with recent inflation data, reinforce expectations that the Bank of England will cut interest rates in August. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey recently indicated that labour market conditions will be a key factor in the pace of monetary easing. Currency and Commodities Snapshot The US dollar briefly dipped below the 98 mark amid speculation that President Trump was considering removing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. However, the greenback quickly recovered, with the Dollar Index (DXY) currently at 98.71. Gold prices slipped by 0.4%, trading at $3332.65 per ounce. Crude oil prices remained stable, with WTI front-month futures slightly lower at $66.39 per barrel. The oil market continues to monitor US inventories and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Australian Job Market Weakens Australia’s labour market showed signs of softening as unemployment rose unexpectedly to a four-year high in June. Hiring activity nearly stalled, raising the likelihood that the Reserve Bank of Australia may cut interest rates at its upcoming meeting. Japan Slides into Trade Deficit as US Tariffs Bite Japan posted a trade deficit of 2.2 trillion yen (€13 billion) in the first half of the year, driven by a decline in exports amid ongoing US tariff pressure. June exports fell 0.5% year-over-year, following a 1.7% drop in May. Shipments to the US were particularly hit, declining 11%, with auto exports plunging 26.7%, following a 25% tariff introduced in April. With nearly 20% of Japan’s exports heading to the US, the country is pushing for favourable trade agreements. Meanwhile, Japan prepares for Upper House elections this Sunday. Weak public support for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba could jeopardise the ruling party’s majority unless a new coalition is formed. Recession Fears Mount in Japan Japan’s economy contracted in Q1 and may be headed for another contraction in Q2. Falling exports and weakening global demand are raising fears that the country may officially enter a recession in the coming months. Oil Prices Rebound Amid Supply Risks and Diesel Shortages After three consecutive days of losses, oil prices edged higher. Traders are weighing lower-than-usual crude and diesel inventories in the US and Europe against broader concerns about future supply gluts. Diesel shortages in particular have supported prices in the short term. ‘The market is currently buoyed by tight diesel supplies, but if OPEC+ production ramps up, we may see a bearish shift,’ said Zhou Mi, an analyst at Chaos Ternary Futures Co. US distillate stockpiles remain at their lowest seasonal level since 1996, despite a modest weekly increase. The futures spread between low-sulfur gasoil and Brent for September—a key indicator of diesel refining profitability—has jumped 7% this month. Geopolitical Risks in Kurdistan Add to Supply Concerns Drone strikes targeted several oil fields in Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdistan region on Wednesday. While the region has not exported crude since a pipeline closure over two years ago, the attacks highlight growing risks to global energy infrastructure. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[b]Date: 16th July 2025.[/b] [b]Mixed US CPI Data Clouds Fed Outlook While Global Markets React to Tariff Jitters.[/b] US financial markets remained choppy following the release of June's CPI report, which presented a mixed inflation picture. While headline consumer prices rose 0.3%—the largest gain since January—core inflation cooled slightly, increasing by just 0.2%. This combination has left investors and policymakers without a clear signal on the direction of the US economy, tempering hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut in the near term. Rate cut expectations for the September FOMC meeting slipped to 60%, down from 68% earlier this week. Fed fund futures now reflect a lower implied rate of -14 basis points for September, compared to -18.8 bps after the June jobs report and -29 bps following weaker-than-expected ADP data on July 2. The probability of a second cut in December has also decreased, with the December contract pricing in -44 bps, down from a fully priced -50 bps earlier. Inflation Drivers and Tariff Impact June's CPI surge was driven by a 0.9% increase in energy prices, including a 1.0% rise in gasoline costs. Other contributors included medical care services (+0.6%), tobacco (+0.5%), and apparel (+0.4%). Meanwhile, vehicle prices dragged on the index, with new vehicles falling by 0.3% and used vehicles declining by 0.7%. Year-over-year, headline CPI rose to 2.7%, while core CPI edged up to 2.9%. Economists attribute much of the price pressure to the Trump administration’s tariff increases, particularly in sectors like coffee, furniture, and pharmaceuticals. As Fed Chair Jerome Powell previously warned, the inflationary effects of these tariffs are beginning to show, and could continue building into the third quarter, especially as the August 1 tariff deadline approaches. Treasury Yields Rise, Nasdaq Hits Record Despite the cooler core reading, Treasury yields rose sharply, with the 10-year yield reaching 4.495%, the highest since June 11. This movement was partially driven by technical selling and growing concerns that tariff-induced price hikes could spill over into PCE inflation data. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq rallied to fresh record highs, supported by a strong performance from AI bellwether Nvidia. Global Central Banks in Focus The Bank of England is also facing inflation challenges. UK inflation unexpectedly accelerated, with headline CPI rising to 3.6% year-over-year and core CPI climbing to 3.7%. Services inflation held steady at a concerning 4.7%. BoE policymaker Catherine Mann warned that job insecurity is driving consumer caution and increased savings, which may weigh on growth sectors like retail and hospitality. While another rate cut in August is still likely, these inflation numbers may reduce the likelihood of a rapid easing cycle. Asia, Oil, and Commodities Asian equity markets were broadly under pressure as rising US yields and a stronger dollar weighed on investor sentiment. The dollar climbed to its highest against the yen since early April, driven by speculation that the Fed may delay any easing. Mainland Chinese blue chips fell 0.5%, while South Korea's KOSPI declined 1%. Taiwan’s tech-heavy index bucked the trend, rising 0.9%. Meanwhile, oil prices hovered near recent lows, with Brent crude trading at $68.96 a barrel. Despite rising global inventories, Morgan Stanley noted that much of the buildup occurred outside OECD nations, limiting its impact on futures pricing. The bank retained its Brent forecast at $65 for Q4 2025, but warned that post-summer demand might not be enough to prevent a renewed surplus. Gold regained ground, trading near $3,340 an ounce, supported by continued geopolitical tensions and strong central bank buying. Bitcoin, meanwhile, rebounded 1% after a recent pullback from its record high above $123,000. Looking Ahead Investors are now turning their attention to upcoming producer price data for additional clues on inflationary trends. Meanwhile, earnings season is ramping up, with mixed results from major banks like JPMorgan and Citigroup and more reports due from Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America. As global markets continue to digest a flurry of data and geopolitical developments, the coming weeks may provide more clarity on central bank policy paths and broader economic trends. [b]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.[/b] [b]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/b] Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to register for FREE! [url=https://analysis.hfm.com/][b]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/b][/url] [b]Andria Pichidi HFMarkets[/b] [b]Disclaimer:[/b] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[b]Date: 15th July 2025.[/b] [b]European Stocks Rise on Trade Hopes, Asian Markets Dip | CPI & Bitcoin in Focus.[/b] [img]https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis-image/?file=inflationUs_Featured_71fd5aa246e147dbbf26315187a109b1[/img] Trading Leveraged products is Risky European stocks climbed on Tuesday, led by gains in the automobile and technology sectors, after US President Donald Trump signaled a willingness to negotiate tariffs with the European Union. The pan-European STOXX 600 index edged 0.2% higher to 547.74 points by 07:11 GMT, supported by positive momentum across most regional bourses. The market’s tone improved after Trump hinted at upcoming discussions with EU officials, despite recent threats of steep tariffs on European imports. [b]Trade Hopes Support European Equities[/b] While the EU had earlier accused the US of blocking progress toward a trade agreement, investor sentiment was lifted when Trump confirmed that EU representatives would soon visit Washington for negotiations. The US president had previously escalated trade tensions by threatening to impose a 30% tariff on most EU imports starting August 1, heightening concerns over a broader trade conflict. Automobile stocks led the charge in Europe, advancing 0.9%, while tech shares followed with a 0.8% gain. Telecoms, however, lagged, dipping 0.8%.Among notable movers, Orsted shares surged 5.5% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the Danish offshore wind energy firm to “Overweight” from “Equal Weight,” citing stronger growth prospects. [img]https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis-image/?file=images/2025-07-15_11-47-49.original.png[/img] [b]Key Data and Earnings in Focus[/b] Investors are eyeing crucial macroeconomic data releases on Tuesday, including Eurozone industrial production for May and Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for July. Across the Atlantic, the US earnings season kicks off, with major banks set to release their second-quarter results. Additionally, the highly anticipated US CPI inflation data for June is due later in the day, expected to show a slight acceleration in consumer prices. [b]Markets Retreat on Tariff Fears[/b] In contrast, Asian stock markets mostly traded lower in early Tuesday deals, weighed down by renewed concerns over US tariff threats. [b]* [/b]Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.1% to 39,507.28 [b]* [/b]Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 climbed 0.4% to 8,602.70 [b]* [/b]South Korea’s Kospi slipped 0.2% to 3,195.72 [b]* [/b]Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost 0.1% [b]* [/b]China’s Shanghai Composite dropped 0.9% China’s GDP growth slowed slightly in the second quarter to 5.2% year-over-year, down from 5.4% in Q1, reflecting the drag from escalating trade tensions. On a quarterly basis, the economy expanded 1.1%, official data showed. [b]US Markets Hold Steady as CPI Report Looms[/b] On Monday, US equities posted modest gains, with the S&P 500 up 0.1%, the Dow Jones rising 0.2%, and the Nasdaq climbing 0.3%. Investors are cautiously optimistic that the White House may tone down tariff threats, especially with trade negotiations ongoing and financial markets showing resilience. [img]https://www.hfm.com/api/get-analysis-image/?file=images/2025-07-15_11-45-02.original.png[/img] [b]Gold Rises Amid Mixed Trade Signals[/b] Gold prices rebounded, gaining as much as 0.5% after Monday’s pullback. The precious metal remains a safe-haven favorite in times of geopolitical and economic uncertainty. Although Trump expressed openness to renewed talks, his insistence that tariff notification letters serve as the “final deal” has left markets unsure. Gold has surged over 25% year-to-date, briefly surpassing $3,500 an ounce in April, driven by global volatility and aggressive US trade rhetoric. However, the rally has paused in recent months, with investors waiting for more clarity on global trade frameworks. [b]Bitcoin Soars as US Debates Crypto-Friendly Legislation[/b] In the digital asset space, Bitcoin hit a new all-time high of $122,404 on Monday, boosted by optimism surrounding crypto-focused legislation in the US. The Genius Act, along with the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act and Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act, is set for debate in Congress this week. The bills aim to provide regulatory clarity and further integrate cryptocurrencies into mainstream finance. [b]NVIDIA Poised to Resume China Sales[/b] NVIDIA is preparing to resume sales of its revised H20 GPUs to China, in compliance with updated US export regulations. Sources indicate the company has received positive signals from policymakers after CEO Jensen Huang met with President Trump, reaffirming support for domestic job creation and innovation. [b]Inflation Data and Earnings Set the Tone for the Week[/b] Markets remain focused on US inflation data, with June CPI expected to rise 0.2% month-over-month, and the core index projected to increase 0.3%. Annual headline inflation is likely to accelerate to 2.6% from 2.4% in May, while the core CPI may edge up to 2.9%, staying below the 3% threshold for the fourth consecutive month. These figures are critical as the Federal Reserve assesses whether to maintain its dovish stance or adjust policy in response to trade developments and inflation trends. [b]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.[/b] [b]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/b] Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to register for FREE! [url=https://analysis.hfm.com/][b]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/b][/url] [b]Andria Pichidi HFMarkets[/b] [b]Disclaimer:[/b] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 14th July 2025. Global Markets Weekly: Trade Tensions, Bitcoin & Silver Surge. Asian Markets Mixed as Trade Tensions and Earnings Season Take Centre Stage Asian equities showed mixed performance on Monday, following a subdued session on Wall Street where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite retreated slightly from last week’s record highs. Market sentiment remained cautious as investors assessed the impact of renewed trade tensions and prepared for a busy week of corporate earnings. Trump's Tariff Threats Stir Global Trade Concerns US President Donald Trump over the weekend announced plans to implement 30% tariffs on imports from Mexico and the European Union, starting August 1. Though the news created headlines, markets reacted calmly as analysts anticipate progress in negotiations before the deadline. In response, the Mexican peso slightly weakened, trading at 18.6 per US dollar. Further fueling tensions, Trump also hinted at raising tariffs on Canadian imports to 35%, along with potential 200% tariffs on pharmaceutical drugs and a 50% tariff on copper. The European Union has already prepared a retaliatory tariff package worth €21 billion ($24.52 billion), according to Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani. Chinese Trade Surplus Hits Record Despite US Decline China ended the first half of the year with a record trade surplus of approximately $586 billion. June exports rose 5.8% year-over-year to $325 billion, while imports climbed 1.1% for the first time since February. Although exports to the US dropped 16.1%, Chinese firms offset the decline with a 17% surge in shipments to ASEAN nations. "China's trade resisted pressure and progressed in the first half of the year," noted Wang Lingjun, deputy head of the General Administration of Customs. However, he warned that rising protectionism continues to pose risks to global trade. Silver Nears 14-Year High Amid Supply Concerns Silver prices approached a 14-year peak, driven by strong investor demand and speculation over potential US tariffs on industrial metals. Spot silver rose as much as 1.6% in Asian trading, building on last week’s 4% surge. The one-month borrowing cost for silver spiked above 6%, signalling tight supply conditions. Analysts highlight silver’s appeal as both a safe-haven asset and an industrial input, particularly for solar panels. The metal is up 35% year-to-date, outpacing gold’s 28% rise, with 2025 likely marking the fifth consecutive year of supply deficits, according to the Silver Institute. Bitcoin Breaks Records as Crypto Momentum Builds Bitcoin soared to a new all-time high of $122,065, gaining 3.6% early Monday. The cryptocurrency has climbed 29% in 2025, bolstered by a bullish trend in risk assets and increased institutional interest. The rally coincides with Nvidia reaching a $4 trillion market cap and the launch of ‘Crypto Week’ in the US Congress, where lawmakers will debate new regulatory frameworks for digital assets. Wall Street Cautious Ahead of Earnings and CPI Data Friday saw US stocks end the week on a negative note, with the S&P 500 down 0.3% to 6,259.75, the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.6% to 44,371.51, and the Nasdaq Composite slipping 0.2% to 20,585.53. The pullback followed record-setting highs earlier in the week. Investors are turning their attention to key inflation data and corporate earnings. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), due Tuesday, is expected to influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision set for later this month. Big US banks, including JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup, are scheduled to report quarterly results, providing insight into the IPO and M&A landscape. Netflix will kick off earnings for tech giants, while ASML and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing are expected to offer updates on the AI chip boom. Other key earnings include PepsiCo, United Airlines, and American Express. Oil and Currency Markets Remain Stable In commodity markets, US crude edged up 9 cents to $68.54 per barrel, while Brent crude rose 10 cents to $70.46. On the currency front, the dollar dipped to 147.36 yen, and the euro fell to $1.1659. With escalating trade tensions, volatile commodity prices, and major corporate earnings ahead, markets are bracing for another eventful week. Investors will be watching for clarity on global trade policies and signals from the Fed as they navigate a landscape marked by uncertainty and opportunity. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[b]Date: 11th July 2025.[/b] [b]Demand For Gold Rises As Trump Announces Tariffs![/b] Gold prices rose significantly throughout the week as investors took advantage of the 2.50% lower entry level. Investors also return to the safe-haven asset as the US trade policy continues to escalate. As a result, investors are taking a more dovish tone. The ‘risk-off’ appetite is also something which can be seen within the stock market. The NASDAQ on Thursday took a 0.90% dive within only 30 minutes. Trade Tensions Escalate President Trump has been teasing with new tariffs throughout the week. However, the tariffs were confirmed on Thursday. A 35% tariff on Canadian imports starting August 1st, along with 50% tariffs on copper and goods from Brazil. Some experts are advising that Brazil has been specifically targeted due to its association with the BRICS. However, the President has not directly associated the tariffs with BRICS yet. According to President Trump, Brazil is targeting US technology companies and carrying out a ‘witch hunt’against former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, a close ally who is currently facing prosecution for allegedly attempting to overturn the 2022 Brazilian election. Although Brazil is one of the largest and fastest-growing economies in the Americas, it is not the main concern for investors. Investors are more concerned about Tariffs on Canada. The White House said it will impose a 35% tariff on Canadian imports, effective August 1st, raised from the earlier 25% rate. This covers most goods, with exceptions under USMCA and exemptions for Canadian companies producing within the US. It is also vital for investors to note that Canada is among the US;’s top 3 trading partners. The increase was justified by Trump citing issues like the trade deficit, Canada’s handling of fentanyl trafficking, and perceived unfair trade practices. The President is also threatening new measures against the EU. These moves caused US and European stock futures to fall nearly 1%, while the Dollar rose and commodity prices saw small gains. However, the main benefactor was Silver and Gold, which are the two best-performing metals of the day. How Will The Fed Impact Gold? The FOMC indicated that the number of members warming up to the idea of interest rate cuts is increasing. If the Fed takes a dovish tone, the price of Gold may further rise. In the meantime, the President pushing for a 3% rate cut sparked talk of a more dovish Fed nominee next year and raised worries about future inflation. Meanwhile, jobless claims dropped for the fourth straight week, coming in better than expected and supporting the view that the labour market remains strong after last week’s solid payroll report. Markets still expect two rate cuts this year, but rate futures show most investors see no change at the next Fed meeting. Gold is expected to finish the week mostly flat. Gold 15-Minute Chart If the price of Gold increases above $3,337.50, buy signals are likely to materialise again. However, the price is currently retracing, meaning traders are likely to wait for regained momentum before entering further buy trades. According to HSBC, they expect an average price of $3,215 in 2025 (up from $3,015) and $3,125 in 2026, with projections showing a volatile range between $3,100 and $3,600 Key Takeaway Points: Gold Rises on Safe-Haven Demand. Gold gained as investors reacted to rising trade tensions and market volatility. Canada Tariffs Spark Concern. A 35% tariff on Canadian imports drew attention due to Canada’s key trade role. Fed Dovish Shift Supports Gold. Growing expectations of rate cuts and Trump’s push for a 3% cut boosted the gold outlook. Gold Eyes Breakout Above $3,337.5. Price is consolidating; a move above $3,337.50 could trigger new buy signals. [b]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.[/b] [b]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/b] Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to register for FREE! [url=https://analysis.hfm.com/][b]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/b][/url] [b]Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets[/b] [b]Disclaimer:[/b] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.