John Starks

Hey everyone. I think it's important to stop for a moment and remember why we love do what we do from time to time.

 

I love trading and all that goes into it. It's such an experience, especially looking back on the journey so far, the beatings, and the successes alike.

 

"Life isn't about waiting for the storm to pass, it's about learning to dance in the rain!"

 

I'll then you, to be successful in this business, you have to dance in a lot of rain. So much, you even wonder why in the world your dancing in rain when you could be sitting by the fire drinking hot coco.

Haha

Happy trading everyone!

FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - USD/JPY is under pressure this Friday in Asia, having traded down to a session low of 79.25 from 79.44 on some pre-weekend safe haven flows.

 

According to Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXstreet.com, “price needs to break below the 79.20 lows to be able to extend its slide towards 78.80 strong static support,” she says. Beyond the mentioned level, further support is noted at 78.40. To the upside, resistance levels lie at 79.50, 79.80 and 80.10.

Tiny margins — Margin trading is one of the biggest advantages in trading forex as it allows you to trade amounts far larger than the total of your deposits. However, it can also be dangerous to novice traders as it can appeal to the greed factor that destroys many forex traders. The best guideline is to increase your leverage in line with your experience and success.

 

No strategy — The aim of making money is not a trading strategy. A strategy is your map for how you plan to make money. Your strategy details the approach you are going to take, which currencies you are going to trade and how you will manage your risk. Without a strategy, you may become one of the 90% of new traders that lose their money.

 

Trading Off-Peak Hours — Professional FX traders, option traders, and hedge funds posses a huge advantage over small retail traders during off-peak hours (between 2200 CET and 1000 CET) as they can hedge their positions and move them around when there is far small trade volume is going through (meaning their risk is smaller). The best advice for trading during off peak hours is simple — don't.

 

The only way is up/down — When the market is on its way up, the market is on its way up. When the market is going down, the market is going down. That's it. There are many systems which analyse past trends, but none that can accurately predict the future. But if you acknowledge to yourself that all that is happening at any time is that the market is simply moving, you'll be amazed at how hard it is to blame anyone else.

 

Trade on the news — Most of the really big market moves occur around news time. Trading volume is high and the moves are significant; this means there is no better time to trade than when news is released. This is when the big players adjust their positions and prices change resulting in a serious currency flow.

 

Exiting Trades — If you place a trade and it's not working out for you, get out. Don't compound your mistake by staying in and hoping for a reversal. If you're in a winning trade, don't talk yourself out of the position because you're bored or want to relieve stress; stress is a natural part of trading; get used to it.

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - EUR/USD is currently at 1.2505 bouncing from daily lows at 1.2470, 10 pips above 0.38 Fibo retrace of latest daily up leg from beginning of June 1.2286/1.2749. The pair is lower by -0.51% from previous weekly close last Friday, amid a new risk aversion move in the markets, with Spanish yields on the rise again, and equities falling. VIX index rose a generous +12.53% for the day.

 

According to Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at Fxstreet.com: “the pair enters Asian session below a bearish 20 SMA while indicators hover around their midlines, suggesting the selling pressure still dominates the scene; in the 4 hours chart indicators turned flat near oversold levels, and 20 SMA heads south well above current price, which also supports limited upside, as long as price remains capped below 1.2520 price zone,” the analyst concludes.

 

Support levels are located at: 1.2470 1.2440, and 1.2400, while resistance levels are seen at: 1.2520 1.2550, and 1.2585.

thanks for sharing :)

You should share a link to the company. By sending a resume blindly to someone we don't know, we are sharing personal information that can be used in a negative manner.

 

Yes i agree with you..Personal information should not be given to someone we don't know..

Antonis Samaras, leader of the Greek New Democracy party which won the Sunday elections, has begun negotiations on Monday in order to build a coalition government. Alexis Tsipras, whose Syriza party came in second, called for a cabinet willing to renegotiate the terms of the international bailout.

 

"Greece's significant and reinforced ability to renegotiate the terms of its loan deal must not be wasted," Tsipras said after his meeting with Samaras on Monday, during which he refused to take part in the coalition. He added that Syriza "won't stand in the way” but it also “won't cede this right that was earned with our efforts."

 

BNP Paribas analysts comment: “We expect the negotiation over the formation of a government to be tricky but to end with a ND-Pasok-Democratic Left alliance. Any new government would try to renegotiate, albeit partially, the bail-out programme.”

 

They also believe that EU leaders will be willing to compromise, which will mean “an

extension of the deadline to reach targets rather than a softening of the required measures,” and consequently, “more funding to Greece, i.e. additional loans and/or restructuring of official loans.”

 

Indeed it seems that EU leaders, relieved with the outcome of the Greek elections might become a bit more flexible as far as the bailout programme is concerned. Germany, which until now firmly opposed any changes, hinted on Monday that more time might be given to Greece so that it can carry out its program of economic reforms.

 

G20 to discuss EU debt crisis, ways of boosting growth and employment

 

Meanwhile, the G20 leaders, who gather today in Los Cabos, Mexico, are increasing their pressures on the EU to take firmer steps to combat the debt crisis. It is expected that European officials present a definite plan of containing the crisis and appeasing the turmoil in the markets.

 

The G20 representatives will also discuss ways of stimulating growth and employment in order to reinforce the ailing world economy.

 

Yield on Spanish 10-year debt back above 7%

 

Yields on Spanish 10-year bonds rose from 6.76% to 7.18% on Monday, despite the fact that the pro-bailout parties won elections in Greece on Sunday, reassuring investors that the country will remain in the euro for now.

 

Last Thursday Spanish yields hit a record high of 7%, widely regarded as an unsustainable level. On Friday they narrowed to 6.84%, on rumors of plans of a coordinated central bank action aimed at providing emergency liquidity in case Greek elections cause a turbulence in the markets.

 

According to Tristan Cooper, Sovereign Debt Analyst at Fidelity Worldwide Investment: “A fear for bond holders is that Spain is taken out of the market by the EFSF/ESM. This would reduce the incentive for the ECB to intervene to cap Spain's bond yields. Thus far, the expectation of intervention by the ECB has acted as a psychological disincentive to short. If this disincentive is removed, yields could move higher. But taking Spain out of the market would be a huge gamble for European policy makers as it would deplete support funds and fuel more speculation around Italy.”

 

Pro- Europe ND wins Greek elections

 

The immediate chaotic outcome of the Syriza victory in the second round of Greek general elections has been avoided, with the pro-bailout party New Democracy being confirmed as the winner after topping the vote count with over 30% vs a 26% from Syriza.

 

Now is time for the New Democracy leader Mr. Samaras to find enough support and form a coalition government, quite a predictable outcome following the latest comments from PASOK leader Mr. Venizelos, who first opposed unless Syriza also joins in, only to claim he had been misinterpreted later. The joke of politics to its fullest expression indeed.

 

According to the Research Team at Investica UK: "There will be massive international pressure for Greece to form a cohesive government, especially given the destabilising impact on the rest of the Euro-zone. Whatever the composition of the administration, there is no doubt that it will also be looking to change the bailout terms, but it will have a weak hand to play."

 

Odds to get the bullet of a weak coalition governemnt unable to govern effectively are very high. However, the German stance over the next few days will be key to find out whether the can can be kicked further down the road or else make them run out of patience.

 

The German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle signaled on Sunday in comments for Reuters that Greece could get more time to cut debt.

 

"There can't be substantial changes to the agreements but I can imagine that we would talk about the time axes once again, given that in reality there was political standstill in Greece because of the elections, which the normal citizens shouldn't have to suffer from," Westerwelle said on German TV station ARD.

 

"But there is no way out of the reforms. Greece must stick to what has been agreed. If we said to Greece, no matter what we agreed, it doesn't matter anymore, then we would get a problem with all the other European countries that are diligently and persistently implementing their reforms."

 

Meanwhile, Fin Min Schaeuble said Greece’s struggles will last but is necessary and will give Greek people prospects for a better future. Separately, the White House said it’s in the interest of all for Greece to remain in the eurozone and respect its commitments to reform.

 

Simon Smith, chief economist at FxPro, comments on tonight's result: "The fact that New Democracy came ahead of Syriza, who were looking to drastically re-negotiate the current bailout with the troika, means that markets are likely to breathe a collective sigh of relief, although it could well be brief. Given what is at stake, all parties are likely to negotiate in great detail in order to secure their mandate for a coalition."

 

source: Fxstreet

How is your trading ? Enjoyable or frustrating

 

Hello guys, how is your trading going on.

I would appreciate if you can leave your comments here so that we can analyse together our day to day trading in forex.

 

Is it Enjoyable or Frustrating?

It seems the Spanish "financial aid" has been futile to calm market as well as the Eurogroup €100 billion bailout for Spain as the market just gift a couple of hours of relief on Monday. On Tuesday, the yield on Spanish 10-year bond spiked to 6.80%, the highest level in the euro era, despite the fact that markets continue extending gains. This way the country's yields moved even closer to the psychologically significant 7% level at which Greece and Portugal had to seek international bailouts.

Is this a Forex general discussion? why there is free twitter fans and youtube viewrs?

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The bloc currency is grinding lower on Monday, as the effects of the Spanish rescue package are slowing dying off. At the same time, Spanish debt markets are back on centre stage as yields are above 6.15%, hitting fresh day highs.

Recall that the great improvement in market sentiment since the very beginning of the day was bolstered by the Spanish financial aid oriented to sanitise its banking system, announced over the weekend.

Increasing risk aversion is dragging the cross to 1.2572 or a decline of 0.52%.

Next support levels are located at 1.2488 (MA10d) ahead of 1.2435 (low Jun.8) then 1.2375 (low Jun.4) and 1.2316 (MA21d).

On the upside, a break above 1.2690 (high May 23) would expose 1.2820 (high May 22) then 1.2854 (MA21d) ans.12870 (high May 15).

yes there are lot of forums just search this keyword in google " best forex forums" :)

FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - According to the International Monetary Fund, the banking system in Spain could need as much as €40 billions to solve its problems, but it would be €25 billion in scenario base, €29 billion in Banco de España's scenario and €37 billion in adverse situation.

"several banks would need to increase capital buffers by about EUR 40 billion in aggregate to comply with the Basel III transition schedule," says the official statement.

"The Spanish authorities have recently accelerated financial sector reforms to reduce vulnerabilities in the system. They have taken measures to address some of the most problematic banks and are currently undertaking an independent valuation of all portfolios, which is a welcome step and should help to determine further restructuring needs," Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, Deputy Director of the IMF’s Monetary and Capital Markets Department of and head of the team that conducted the FSAP, said.

"But the extent and persistence of the economic deterioration may imply further bank losses. Full implementation of reforms, as well as establishing a credible public backstop, are critical for preserving financial stability going forward," Pazarbasioglu concluded.

"The report was scheduled to be released on Monday but the IMF has published it Friday late in New York but early in the morning in Spain and the whole eurozone," comments in his twitter account Mauricio Carrillo (@MCarrilloFX), analyst at FXstreet.com. "Market could assume that the IMF hurries are in line with the speculations on Spanish Bailout as soon as this weekend."

We know that there are some major currency pairs that are traded in the forex market. They represent the largest trading volume in currency trading, which is about 85%. One of the most important majors is EUR/USD. We know that the United States and the European Union are the two largest economic entities in the world. The U.S. dollar is the world’s most heavily traded and most widely held reserve currency. The currency of the European Union, known as the euro, is the world’s another most popular currency. Because it is made up of the two most popular currencies in the world, the EUR/USD is the most traded currency pair in the forex market. Thus, it is necessary for traders to learn EUR/USD before live currency trading.

There are two kinds of fear in this world: legitimate fear and illegitimate fear. Legitimate fear is the kind of fear that is based on the fact that there is real danger. Illegitimate fear is based on perceived danger when none actually exists. Illegitimate fear can also co-exist with legitimate fear.

 

Fear in trading is both legitimate and illegitimate. Illegitimate fear is any fear that is not based on fact. It is fear based on a misunderstanding of the facts, over- exaggeration of the facts, or misperception of what the facts are or are not. The most common source for illegitimate fear is lack of knowledge. Take, for example, my incident with ghost stories. A bunch of us college-age guys sat in a room over a morgue, in the dark, telling ghost and horror stories that we had read. We scared each other so badly that none of us could move until daylight. We were literally frozen in our tracks — I mean complete physical paralysis. It was one of the longest nights of my life. Deep down inside, I knew what we had done, but I allowed my emotions to override any rational thought — actually, any thought whatsoever.

 

It is amazing how similar fear in trading really can be. For example, have you ever been involved in a trade risking a few hundred dollars where, as soon as it started to go against you, your heart rate increased and your palms became sweaty? Why is that? It is only a few hundred bucks! If you aren't willing to risk a few hundred bucks, why are you trading? It isn't about the few hundred bucks, it is about over-exaggerating the situation. The emotions are given more attention than they deserve.

 

Conversely, there is a very real fear concerning the overall ultimate outcome of any trading venture. The statistics back this up. It is a battle to balance the fear involved with trading against the expectation of making profits. On a single trade, the fear should not exist. But the fear from the probability of long-term success is lingering in the background, and causes many traders to try to change those probabilities one trade at a time. In the process of trying to avoid failure, they bring it on faster.

 

The first step to overcoming fear is to determine which kind it is. Kids are fearful of many things until they learn to understand that the fear is unfounded. Knowledge is the best weapon to fight the negative affects of fear in your trading. The more you know, the more you understand, the less fear will have a negative affect on your trading.

 

The knowledge you need can be acquired by experience, mentoring, or both. Experience can be a hard teacher. Many traders and investors (in fact, most) lose money and are defeated long before they can acquire the necessary experience. If you are to become successful in the markets, it may be a lot easier to invest in yourself through proper mentoring than to quickly lose more money than it would ever cost to learn the tricks of the trade from an experienced trader.

Forexpros - The dollar firmed against most major world currencies on Thursday, reversing losses sustained on building expectations that the Federal Reserve is leaning towards spurring economic activity via monetary easing tools.

In Asian trading on Thursday, EUR/USD was trading down 0.10% at 1.2569.

Weak jobs reports, choppy housing recovery, lackluster economic growth rates and other disappointing economic indicators have fueled talk that the Federal Reserve may announce quantitative easing measures later this month.

Under quantitative easing, the Fed buys assets from banks, injecting the economy with liquidity with the aim of pushing down long-term interest rates and fueling growth.

As a side effect, the dollar weakens.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is due to speak in Congress later Thursday and the U.S. central bank's monetary policy committee will meet next week to decide on interest and possibly rolling out easing measures to jolt the economy.

The dollar has weakened considerably under such sentiment though it rebounded in Asian trading Thursday after the Fed's Beige Book painted a somewhat rosier view of the U.S. economy.

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, meanwhile, said downside risks still threaten the European economy, though he stopped short of announcing new long-term refinancing operations designed to ease credit conditions in Europe after a current program ends.

Though Draghi says the European Central Bank will act if needed, rates remain unchanged at 1.00%.

Ongoing concerns that Spain will face challenges propping up its banking sector while Greek elections loom with no clear frontrunner made the greenback attractive for safe-haven buyers.

The greenback was up against the pound, with GBP/USD down 0.17% and trading at 1.5470.

The U.S. currency was up against the yen, with USD/JPY trading up 0.13% at 79.29, and up against the Swiss franc, with USD/CHF trading up 0.10% at 0.9554.

The dollar was up against its cousins in Canada, Australia and New Zealand, with USD/CAD up 0.11% at 1.0287, AUD/USD down 0.34% at 0.9894 and NZD/USD down 0.27% at 0.7686.

The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, was up 0.03% at 82.29.

Later Thursday, the U.S. will release government data on initial jobless claims, while Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is to appear before the Joint Economic Committee in Washington.

Thanks great help.. :)

GBP/USD sits quietly within a 30-pip range around the 1.5360 area at the start of trading this Monday, practically unchanged after closing down 0.3% on Friday.

The notably weak UK PMI, which fell to 45.9 vs. a consensus of 49.7 surprised markets, the latest to weigh on the pound.

“Above 1.5420, the pair may attempt a recovery towards the 1.5460 area, yet unless a clear acceleration above this last, the downside will remain favored,” says Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXstreet.com; “breaks below 1.5330 in the short term should lead to a retest of past Friday’s low around 1.5260.”

* Aug 2010 high @ 83.55 capped a volatile session overnight

 

* QE111 fears undermined, weekend QE111 headlines mixed

 

* Daily momentum studies are cresting or heading lower

 

* 5, 10 & 20 DMA's are trending up, so signals disparate

 

* Bias with trend while 20 DMA holds today @ 81.77

USD/JPY fluctuated wildly in a 100-pip range in the minutes that followed the US nonfarm payrolls reports. As the US economy added fewer jobs than expected in May, prospects of further quantitative easing reemerged causing volatility in the dollar.

However, after the initial reaction, where USD/JPY went down to 77.65 and then up to 78.68, the pair has settled inside a slim range just above the 78.00 mark. At time of writing, the cross is trading at the 78.10/20 area, still down 0.2% on the day.

Similar behavior shows EUR/JPY, which fell to its lowest level in 12 years at 95.56, before bouncing strongly. Currently, the euro-yen cross trades at 96.75, virtually unchanged on the day.

johnstarks,

 

I agree with you but in my opinion you need to test the worst possible scenario and multiply by 2 or 3 always in order to survive on markets. You don´t know how market will behave in the future, and is most likely that worst scenario will repeat and with more losses in a row. That is a fact, and this is a reason why manual traders will survive and automated trading don´t.

 

regards,

 

Yes you are right right about that and I agree with you also..

It is wise to decide on the size of the trading lot and exposed risk in advance.

Do a simple math: calculate the worst possible situation, e.g. 10 consecutive losses in a row; then see if your account will survive and if there be something left to move on. And, although 10 losses in a row is a very unlikely scenario, you cannot deny it...

hey any new signals?

thanks for sharing....Great books :)

FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - Last week’s AUD/CAD bounce from the 0.9950 area extended into the 1.0115 price zone on Monday, reaching a 12-day high as control is shifting back towards the bulls. The 38.2% Fibonacci support level of the 0.8755/1.0781 advance attracted heavy bids.

Fan Yang, CMT, Chief Technical Strategist at FXTimes observes that the AUD/CAD “appears to be forming a double bottom in the daily chart IF it can clear above the 1.0110 resistance pivot area,” which represents a declining trendline from February as well as the May-high.

Should AUD/CAD records a sustained break of the mentioned pivot area, Mr. Yang identifies further progressively more aggressive targets at 1.0180-1.02, 1.03, then at 1.04.

The pair last trades at 1.0083 as it opens the Asian session, having gained 0.3% on Monday. To the downside, intraday support is noted at 1.0066, then below at 1.0042.