OctaFX_Farid

FOMC: No hurry to hike - Rabobank FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Rabobank explained that they expect the FOMC to remain on its $10bn/meeting tapering course on July 30. Key Quotes: “Given the Fed’s tapering inertia and the re-acceleration of the economy since the extreme winter weather, we expect the FOMC to remain on its $10bn/meeting tapering course on July 30. This will bring down monthly asset purchases to $25bn, from $35bn”. “Meanwhile, the debate between hawks and doves about the amount of slack in the economy has shifted to wages”. “As long as wage growth remains muted, the doves – who have an overwhelming majority in the FOMC – will see this as evidence of ample slack and consequently they won’t be in a hurry to start hiking the fed funds target rate”. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 25, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates

USD/CAD extends gains, hits 9-day high FXStreet (Córdoba) - The USD/CAD took another step higher and rallied to fresh weekly highs as the greenback strengthened during the American session. The USD/CAD broke above the 1.0770 area and triggered some stops on its way toward 1.0785 although it lost momentum ahead of the top of its past weeks' range. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 1.0780, 0.34% above its opening price. USD/CAD technical outlook “Technical studies warn of upside risk, even as USD/CAD sits within ten day range”, said Camilla Sutton, analyst at Scotiabank. “A break above this range (1.0794) would add momentum to long USD/CAD trades”. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 25, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates

USD: plenty of upside room - Scotiabank FXStreet (Córdoba) - Camilla Sutton, analyst at Scotiabank notes that markets dynamics are changing toward broad USD strength and there is plenty of upside room. Key Quotes “The first half of 2014 was marked by the lack of a broad movement in the USD; instead the focus was on the domestic stories; with NZD rallying on RBNZ policy, GBP on strengthening domestic fundamentals, JPY on shifting expectations for the BoJ and firming inflation; while others were weak, like SEK and NOK. However since the end of June currencies have broadly shifted towards USD strength which warns of an overall change in market dynamics”. “The DXY is higher and trading above its average level; however still not above its June highs, accordingly if we are in the midst of a shift there is plenty of upside room”. “Some of the broad strength is on the back of rising geopolitical risks but the fundamentals are also at play with US labour markets and inflation firming the relative interest rate story is increasingly important”. “The key will be the developments at the Fed next week. It is likely too early for a broad and strong USD rally; but for some currencies, like EUR, we appear to be at the beginning of a new (and long awaited) downward slide”. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 25, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates

Barclays: FOMC meeting will likely not be a market mover - eFXnews FXStreet (Łódź) - The eFXnews team remark that Barclay’s doesn’t expect much action from the Fed at its monetary policy meeting on Wednesday. Key quotes “The statement may note that the final reduction in purchases would occur following the October meeting, but that should not be a surprise to anyone.” “The Fed may upgrade the assessment of the labor market.” “At the April meeting, the statement noted that ‘Labor market indicators were mixed but on balance showed further improvement. The unemployment rate, however, remains elevated’.” “At the June meeting, the statement noted that ‘Labor market indicators generally showed further improvement. The unemployment rate, though lower, remains elevated’.” “Information received on the labor market front since then has been unequivocally strong. All measures have shown improvement and the unemployment rate has already dropped to the Fed’s year-end central tendency range of 6.0-6.1%.” “While we do not expect the Fed to remove the ‘elevated’ from the statement yet, it is very possible later this year, in our view." ‘This content has been provided under specific arrangement with eFXnews.’ OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 25, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates

All eyes on the Fed and US NFP next week- FXStreet FXStreet (Łódź) - According to FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik the fate of the US dollar next week depend on the result of the Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting, the US GDP as well as the jobs data releases. Key quotes “As for the FOMC, the fact is that not much should be expected, as there is no press conference scheduled post meeting.” “A statement will of course be released as usual, and market expects it to confirm QE will end following the October meeting, not a surprise anymore; attention will focus particularly in any line regarding the current assessment of the labor market, a barometer of when rates will be hiked.” “And while labor market indicators had been for the most mixed, the main indicator, Nonfarm Payrolls, will be release after the meeting, which signals the FED will likely maintain previous meetings wording. In that case dollar can suffer a setback, on diminishing expectations of a rate hike.” “If the wording changes however, and the FED eases its view on employment recovery anyway, dollar will likely get a boost.” “When it comes to employment figures, unemployment rate stands at 6.1% Fed’s year-end target and an over 5 years’ low, while past month, the economy managed to add 288K new jobs.” “For this month market expectations are of 230K new jobs added which will fit average and therefore be understood as positive.” “The problem is still the participation rate, which measures the total number of people either employed or actively looking for work, a number the FED likes to ignore completely: the labor force participation rate for all ages stands at 62-8, the lowest since 1978.” “Nevertheless, if the numbers results above expected, investors will likely choose to price in a sooner than expected rate hike, more over if FED statement confirms purchase programs will end upcoming spring, with dollar edging higher across the board.” OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 25, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates

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EUR/USD slides as hopes are killed FXStreet (Moscow) - EUR/USD retreated from session high at 1.3475, and slid to 1.3460 area right before the IFO release; it moved to 1.3450 post data. When IFO is out The chances to see good IFO numbers were slim, as Germany has shown some slackness in recent industrial and business data. The released yesterday PMI data did give a hope, but when the IFO expectations index came out at 103.4 vs. 104.5, the pair immediately reacted with a slide to 1.3450 area, and if the support is broken the next target may become 1.3414. The other components of the report disappointed as well confirming the weakness evolving in the German economy. What are today’s key EUR/USD levels? Today's central pivot point can be found at 1.3462, with support below at 1.3439, 1.3414 and 1.3391, with resistance above at 1.3487, 1.3510, and 1.3535. Hourly Moving Averages are mixed, with the 200SMA bearish at 1.3535 and the daily 20EMA bearish at 1.3554. Hourly RSI is bearish at 54. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 25, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates

Germany IFO - Current Assessment came in at 112.9 below forecasts (114.5) in July Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 25, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates

Germany IFO - Business Climate came in at 108, below expectations (109.4) in July Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 25, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates

United States Kansas Fed manufacturing activity climbed from previous 2 to 11 in July Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 24, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates

GBP/USD hits fresh 1-month lows FXStreet (Córdoba) - The GBP/USD fell further below 1.7000 and printed a fresh 1-month low at the beginning of the New York session as the greenback strengthened on the back of upbeat jobless claims data. Today’s UK retail sales release was disappointing which in addition to less hawkish than expected BoE minutes published yesterday, weighed on the Cable, pushing it further away its 6-year peak of 1.7190 scored last week. The pair has fallen for seven trading days in a row, retracing almost 50.0% of its May-July rise between 1.6692/1.7190. Having scored a low of 1.6968, the GBP/USD is currently trading at 1.6975, recording a 0.38% loss on Thursday. GBP/USD technical levels In terms of technical levels, the GBP/USD could find next supports at 1.6951 (Jun 25 low), 1.6940 (61.8% Fibo of 1.6692/1.7190) and 1.6919 (Jun 18 low). On the flip side, resistances are seen at 1.7052 (Jul 24 high), 1.7094 (Jul 23 high) and 1.7100/02 (psychological level/20-day SMA). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 24, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates

S&P 500 inches to new record high - ForexTrading.TV FXStreet (Łódź) - Nicole Elliott, currency analyst at ForexTrading.TV points out that the S&P 500 is climbing towards a new record high. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 24, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates

United States EIA Natural Gas Storage change came in at 90B, below expectations (95B) in July 18 Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 24, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates

NZD/USD: year-end target at 0.85 - Scotiabank FXStreet (Córdoba) - Camilla Sutton, analyst at Scotiabank notes that the RBNZ used much stronger language than before, adding pressure on the NZD after the meeting. Scotiabank holds their NZD/USD year-end target at 0.85 and warns cautious when it trades above 0.86. “NZD is weak, having fallen 1.3% since yesterday’s NA close and touching a one month low”. “As expected the RBNZ increased interest rates by 25 bps to 3.50%; while signaling a pause in its tightening cycle, downgrading its growth forecast to 3.7% in 2014 and rising concern over the level of NZD”. “In its warning over the currency, the RBNZ said explicitly that ‘the level of the New Zealand dollar is unjustified and unsustainable and there is potential for a significant fall’. This is much stronger language than has been used recently and added to the downward pressure on NZD”. “We hold a year-end target of 0.85, expecting markets to grow increasingly cautious over NZD when it trades above 0.86”. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 24, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates

United States Markit Manufacturing PMI below forecasts (57.5) in July: Actual (56.3) Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 24, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates

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Italy Consumer Confidence registered at 104.6, below expectations (105) in July Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 24, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates

GBP/USD stole the show reacting to Retail Sales FXStreet (Moscow) - GBP/USD came under mild pressure on strong EMU PMI’s sliding back to 1.7030 area; the just released UK Retail Sales sent the pair to 1,70 area. When Retail Sales come out The pair came under pressure through EUR/GBP cross moves, as the euro was helped by stronger than expected PMI data reviving the hopes for gradual recovery of the euro zone. However, just released UK Retail Sales stole the show, and attracted the market attention with the readings coming out at 0.1% m/m, 3.6% y/y vs. 0.3% m/m, 3.9% y/y expected. The pair moved to 1.7008 low post the release as the investors took the numbers as another evidence of weaker than perceived British economic recovery. What are today’s key GBP/USD levels? Today's central pivot point can be found at 1.7055, with support below at 1.7013, 1.6983 and 1.6941 with resistance above at 1.7085, 1.7127, and 1.7157. Hourly Moving Averages are bearish, with the 200SMA at 1.7093, and the daily 20EMA flat at 1.7077. Hourly RSI is bullish at 40. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 24, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates

United Kingdom Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY) below forecasts (4.6%) in June: Actual (4%) Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 24, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates

USD/JPY holding on 101.50 FXStreet (Guatemala) - USD/JPY is trading at 101.54, up 0.05% on the day, having posted a daily high at 101.57 and low at 101.47. USD/JPY spot is in overbought territory according to the hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bullish, all the while we are still unchanged with the Tokyo open and trade data already posted. However, in the 4 hours chart, as noted by Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet explained, “Indicators head higher in positive territory, yet chances of an advance are subdue to a break above mentioned resistance”. USD/JPY Levels Spot is presently trading at 101.54, and next resistance can be seen at 101.56 (Yesterday's High), 101.60 (Daily 20 SMA) and 101.67 (Weekly High). Next support to the downside can be found at 101.47 (Daily Low) and 101.40 ahead of 101.20. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 24, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates

EUR making new lows for the month - BBH FXStreet (Guatemala) - Marc Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman explained that the EUR has been making new marginal lows for this month and looked else where to other G10’s. Key Quotes "EUR/USD is trading at levels not seen since November 2013". “Elsewhere, EUR/JPY is breaking a key retracement level from the 2013-2014 rise near 136.75 and points to a test of the November 2013 low near 131.20." "EUR/JPY has yet to break below the February low near 136.25. EUR/USD already has broken below its February low and so the move is being led by this pair, it seems". "USD/JPY remains stuck in its recent narrow ranges." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 23, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates

Barclays: BoE expected to raise rates in Q4 - eFXnews FXStreet (Łódź) - The eFXnews team remark that following the release of BoE minutes today Philippe Gudin and Fabrice Montagne from Barclays Capital see the MPC hiking rates in the last quarter of 2014. Key quotes "The UK Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted unanimously to keep monetary policy on hold at its July meeting, with Bank Rate unchanged at 0.50% and the stock of asset purchases maintained at £375bn." "Members of the MPC had an extensive discussion about the margin of spare capacities, especially in the labour market, and continued to hold a wide range of views about the degree of slack in the UK economy, which is likely to be the main focus of the August Inflation Report." "We continue to expect the first increase in Bank Rate to take place in the fourth quarter of this year." 'This content has been provided under specific arrangement with eFXnews.' OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 23, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates

EUR/USD tests 1.3470 post EU consumer confidence FXStreet (San Francisco) - The Euro is trading slightly higher against the US Dollar following the worst than expected EU consumer confidence in July. Currently, EUR/USD is trading at 1.3469, up 0.03% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.3475 and low at 1.3455. EUR/USD spot is in neutral territory according to the hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bullish. The EU consumer confidence declined to -8.4 pts in Juy from -7.5 pts in June. Worst than expected EUR/USD levels If the pair manages to break 1.3470, it would find resistances at 1.3490 and 1.3500. On the downside, supports are at 1.3460, 1.3450 and 1.3400. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 23, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates

European Monetary Union Consumer Confidence registered at -8.4, below expectations (-7.5) in July Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 23, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates

EUR/USD consolidating its latest losses - FXStreet FXStreet (Łódź) - FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik observes that the EUR/USD is consolidating its latest losses , trading in a tight 20 pips range below former year low of 1.3476, level that capped the upside so far today. Key quotes "With no fundamental data to lead the way, EU consumer confidence and US crude stocks may bring some action later today, albeit seems we are going nowhere far." "Technically, the bearish bias remains favored with price hovering around a bearish 20 SMA and indicators turning lower around their midlines." "In the 4 hours chart technical readings also favor the downside, with a break below 1.3440/50 area required to confirm a new leg down." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 23, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates