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OctaFX_Farid

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  1. NZD/USD potential downside to 0.82 – ANZ FXStreet (Barcelona) - Sam Tuck, ANZ Research, expects the pair to head towards 0.82. Key Quotes "Recent events continue to affirm our 24 July trade recommendation to sell NZD/USD targeting 0.82." "Dairy prices have stabilised, but prices have flattened, implying downside risks remain." "Political risks mean the election is not the fait accompli it once was." "ANZ monthly inflation gauge validates markets move to reducing probabilities for RBNZ action." 'USD developments remain positive in line with ANZ’s ahead of consensus FOMC March lift off call." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 21, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates
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  3. Merkel: Europe needs to work on construction flaws FXStreet (Łódź) - Speaking at an economic event in Lindau, Germany, Chancellor Angela Merkel stressed that to definitively overcome the debt crisis in Europe, EU Member States should tighten their cooperation further. She called for improving the construction of the EU and for making the Eurozone banking system more transparent. She also suggested G20 countries should tighten shadow banking rules. Furthermore, Merkel stressed that sustainability is the main principle of the German government's decisions on fiscal policy. She pointed to the demographic challenge in Germany as one of the most important to deal with currently in order not to overburden future generations. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 20, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates
  4. FOMC minutes to support a stronger USD - Scotiabank FXStreet (Córdoba) - Camilla Sutton, strategist at Scotiabank, commented that the Fed minutes are the focus and expected to support a stronger USD as it will refocus markets on diverging interest rate paths. Key Quotes "The Fed minutes are expected to showcase the more hawkish stance of both non‐voting members like Bullard and Lacker and voting members like Plosser and Fisher. Accordingly, the risk is that the focus on the timing of normalization to begin sooner rather than later". "In addition, the minutes might provide further clues as to the exit plan; but a full reveal of this is more likely to be delivered directly from Chair Yellen". OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 20, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates
  5. USD/JPY finds resistance at 103.40 FXStreet (Córdoba) - Extending gains into a third consecutive day, the USD/JPY broke above 103.00 and printed fresh 4-month highs amid broad dollar strength ahead of the FOMC minutes. The USD/JPY climbed to its highest level since early April at 103.39 as the dollar continued to build on yesterday’s housing data-inspired gains. However, the USD/JPY found resistance at the 103.40 zone and pulled back slightly to currently trade around 103.20, recording a 0.29% gain Wednesday. Market attention now turns to the FOMC minutes release scheduled for 18:00 GMT for clues of the Federal Reserve next steps. USD/JPY levels to watch If the USD/JPY manages to break above 103.40, next resistances could be found at 103.75 (Mar 7 high), 104.00 (psychological level) and 104.12 (Apr 4 high). On the other hand, supports are seen at 102.88 (Aug 20 low), 102.51 (Aug 19 low) and 102.24 (Aug 18 low). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 20, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates
  6. Canada: Wholesale sales grow less than expected in June FXStreet (Łódź) - The Canadian Wholesale Sales data released by Statistics Canada today shows 0.6% growth in June, compared with the May 2.3% rise. Market consensus pointed to a 1.3% increase. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 20, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates
  7. Encouraging price action for USD/CAD bulls - TD Securities FXStreet (Łódź) - The TD Securities team of analysts suggest that the gains in funds over the past few days from the upper 1.08 area is very encouraging for USD/CAD bulls. Key quotes "The market is ripe for another, broader squeeze up in the USD under the right circumstances." "Today in particular that would come in the form of disappointing Canadian wholesale trade data (weaker data may point to softer growth) and a constructive undertone to the FOMC minutes." "Technically, a push through resistance at 1.0960—the top of the broad bull flag consolidation channel in formation over the past few months—should set the USD up for more medium-term gains (towards 1.16/1.17 potentially in the next 6-9 months)." "This level should resonate a little more with the market than the neckline of what looks to be an inverse H&S low/reversal formation which comes in at 1.0990; sustained gains through here would point to the USD rallying to the mid 1.13s in the next 3 months or so." "We remain bullish on the near-term outlook for the USD and target a rally to 1.1050; sustained, short-term gains in funds would suggest building risks of an extended run higher in funds moving into 2015 (formally, we target 1.15 in Q1)." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 20, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates
  8. EUR/GBP trend line and MA important short term support for continuation - ForexTrading.TV FXStreet (Łódź) - Laith Marmarchi, currency analyst at ForexTrading.TV, suggests that the EUR/GBP trend line and MA provide important short term support for continuation. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 20, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates
  9. Poland Producer Price Index (YoY) fell from previous -1.7% to -2% in July Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 20, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates
  10. No November BoE rate hike expected despite dissenting votes - RBS FXStreet (Łódź) - Ross Walker, Senior UK Economist at RBS suggests that even though two MPC members decided to vote for a 25 bp rate hike in August, as BoE minutes showed, the rise should not be carried out as soon as November 2014. Key quotes "We continue to regard Mssrs Weale and McCafferty as outliers not bellwethers – at the margin, our confidence in this view is reinforced following yesterday's CPI inflation data and today's MPC Minutes." "The RBS forecast remains for the first 25bp hike to come in February 2015, with 25bp increases in the Inflation Report months of May, August and November 2015 – ie, Bank Rate at 1.5% at end-2015." "The risks around this forecast are tilted modestly towards later and slower tightening (eg, heightened financial market volatility around the May 2015 election might augur in favour of unchanged policy settings)." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 20, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates
  11. GBP/USD clinches to 1.6650 FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The sterling remains on the right footing on Wednesday, with the GBP/USD meandering around the mid-1.6600s so far. GBP/USD bid despite the risk-off tone The upbeat sentiment post-BoE minutes is currently bolstering the upside in the sterling, managing quite well to keep the middle area of 1.6600. It is worth recalling that the GBP reacted positively following the MPC vote, where members M.Weale and I.McCafferty favoured an immediate rate hike. “The August MPC Minutes symbolically brought the first dissenting policy votes, but we do not believe that a November 2014 Bank Rate hike is materially more likely following these Minutes… The RBS forecast remains for the first 25bp hike to come in February 2015, with 25bp increases in the Inflation Report months of May, August and November 2015 – ie, Bank Rate at 1.5% at end-2015”, suggested Ross Walker, Analyst at RBS. GBP/USD levels to consider As of writing the pair is up 0.20% at 1.6650 with the next hurdle at 1.6722 (10-d MA) followed by 1.6728 (high Aug.19) and finally 1.6739 (high Aug.18). On the flip side, a breakdown of 1.6567 (low Apr.7) would target 1.6555 (low Apr.4) en route to 1.6500 (psychological level). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 20, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates
  12. USD extends its rally - BTMU FXStreet (Barcelona) - Lee Hardman, FX Analyst at the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ, remarks the USD upside momentum ahead of the FOMC minutes. Key Quotes "Upward trend resumes after stalling during the first half of August The US dollar has continued to strengthen in the Asian trading session leading to USD/JPY breaking above the top of its recent tight trading range between 101.00 and 103.00. US dollar upward momentum resumed yesterday with the dollar index rising to its highest level since the 9th September 2013 after finally breaking decisively above resistance at around the 81.50-level." "The US dollar is continuing to derive support from the ongoing outperformance of the US economy in the near-term which appears to be strengthening while growth in most other major economies is losing momentum. It was revealed yesterday that both housing starts and building permits rebounded by more than expected in July providing further evidence that the US housing market is beginning to rebound after weakness in the first half of this year. Still, the underlying trend in housing starts remains one of only very gradual improvement while permits have flat-lined so far during 2014." "The release yesterday of the latest US CPI report also revealed that inflation pressures have eased over the last couple of months. Core inflation increased for the second consecutive month by just 0.1% in July." "It supports Fed Chair Yellen’s view that the pick-up in inflation in the first five months of this year may prove to be just “noise” with underlying inflation pressures still subdued. As a result the Fed is likely to feel more comfortable to maintain its current loose monetary stance for longer which will help dampen upward pressure on US yields and the US dollar from strengthening economic growth momentum in the US." "It leaves us a little cautious about chasing further US dollar gains in the near-term ahead of Fed Chair Yellen’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday. Before that the release of the latest FOMC minutes from their 29th-30th July meeting will be in focus today. We do not expect a more detailed discussion of the Fed’s expect strategy until later this year after the Fed has brought an end to QE in the autumn." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 20, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates
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  14. GBP/USD edges even lower after US data FXStreet (Córdoba) - The GBP/USD stretched to yet another 4-month low at the beginning of the American session as the greenback strengthened after the release of US inflation and housing data. Annual US consumer price index grew by 2.0% for the headline and 1.9% for the core in July, matching market's expectations. On a strong note, US housing starts rose 15.7% to 1.093 million in July versus 7.6% forecasted, reaching the highest level in 8 months and indicating a pick up in building. The GBP/USD, that was underperforming in the wake of UK CPI downside surprise, fell to a fresh 4-month low of 1.6622 in recent dealings. GBP/USD technical levels In terms of technical levels, the Cable could find next supports at 1.6602/00 (Apr 8 low/psychological level), 1.6564 (Apr 7 low) and 1.6548 (Apr 4 low). On the flip side, resistances are now seen at 1.6667 (200-day SMA), 1.6700 (psychological level) and 1.6727 (Aug 19 high). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 19, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates
  15. USD/CAD back to 1.0900 FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The USD/CAD quickly faded the spike to fresh highs just below 1.0920 in the wake of the US data releases. USD/CAD tests fresh highs on US data Spot posted fresh 3-day highs after the US consumer prices advanced 2.0% in a year to July, in line with market forecasts. Core prices rose 1.9% over the last twelve months, in line with estimates and previous print. Further data showed both Building Permits and Housing Starts surpassing expectations at 1.052M and 1.093 M, respectively. In the view of Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, “Having found firm support late last week around the 200-day MA, USDCAD really needs to make a little clearer headway through the low 1.09 area if it is to stabilize—and improve further – from a technical point of view… We look for support at 1.0890/95 today to provide a base for funds to retest 1.0950 in the days ahead”. USD/CAD levels to watch At the moment the pair is advancing 0.17% at 1.0906 facing the next hurdle at 1.0919 (high Aug.15) followed by 1.0921 (high Aug.14) and finally 1.0941 (high Aug.13). On the flip side, a breach of 1.0868 (200-d MA) would open the door to 1.0861 (low Aug.15) and then 1.0808 (Kijun). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 19, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates
  16. EUR/USD hits fresh 2014 lows after US data FXStreet (Córdoba) - The EUR/USD fell to fresh year-to-date lows after the latest series of US inflation and housing data. Although inflation figures were in line with expectations, housing starts jumped to the highest level in 8 months, indicating a pick up in building. Annual US consumer price index grew by 2.0% for the headline and 1.9% for the core in July, matching market’s expectations. Separated data showed housing starts rose 15.7% to 1.093 million in July versus 7.6% forecasted. The dollar strengthened broadly and dragged the EUR/USD to fresh 2014 lows as stops were triggered. The pair rushed to a low of 1.3319 so far and it was last down 0.24% at 1.3330. EUR/USD technical levels As for technical levels, next supports are now seen at 1.3295 (Nov 7 2013 low), 1.3250 (mid-September 2013 lows) and 1.3230 (Sep 10 2013 low). On the flip side, resistances could be found at 1.3400 (psychological level), 1.3411/14 (Aug 13 & 15 highs) y 1.3432 (Aug 8 high). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 19, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates
  17. US: CPI (Jul) rose 2.0% FXStreet (Edinburgh) -The Department of Labour informed that US consumer prices rose at an annual pace of 2.0% during July, banging on estimates. On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.1%. Core CPI, which strips food and energy costs, rose 1.9% over the last twelve months and 0.1% inter-month. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 19, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates
  18. EUR/USD around 1.3350, US docket eyed FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The shared currency is trading on the back footing on Tuesday, taking the EUR/USD to the area of 1.3350. EUR/USD focus on US CPI Spot continues to trade in the broader 1.3330-1.3450 range, looking for any catalysts to break the pattern either way. Ahead in the day, US consumer prices are due with consensus expecting headline CPI to have increased 2.0% in a year to July, a tad lower than June’s 2.1%; further data will also bring Housing Starts (0.970M exp.) and Building Permits (1.0M exp.). “Our optimal scenario is for price to continue respecting a bearish consolidation (triangle) on the daily chart, which will point to a resumption of the underlying trend lower on a break under 1.3340. Gains through the low 1.34s will raise the risk of a squeeze higher through the upper 1.34/low 1.35 zone, however”, observed Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at TD Securities. EUR/USD significant levels The pair is now losing 0.11% at 1.3347 and a breakdown of 1.3336 (low Aug.12) would target 1.3333 (2014 low Aug.6) en route to 1.3318 (low Nov.8 2013). On the upside, the immediate hurdle aligns at 1.3399 (high Aug.18) followed by 1.3415 (200-w MA) and finally 1.3416 (high Aug.13). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 19, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates
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  20. GBP/NZD resistance level at 1.9735 tested - ForexTrading.TV FXStreet (Łódź) - The US NAHB Housing Market Index grew to 55 in August, from 53 in July, according to data released by the National Association of Home Builders. Analysts expected the indicator to remain unchanged. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 18, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates
  21. US: NAHB Housing Market Index up to 55 August FXStreet (Łódź) - The US NAHB Housing Market Index grew to 55 in August, from 53 in July, according to data released by the National Association of Home Builders. Analysts expected the indicator to remain unchanged. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 18, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates
  22. Norges Bank could revise up its rate path – Danske Bank FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Chief Analyst Thomas Harr at Danske Bank thinks the Nordinc central bank could revise its rate path higher in the next monetary policy meeting. Key Quotes “We expect NB to revise the rate path upwards at the next monetary policy meeting on 18 September”. “NB currently says that rates will be kept at the current level until the end of 2015 followed by a ‘gradual rise’ and that it sees a 30% probability of a rate cut over the next year”. “The new rate path might remove the probability of a rate cut, bring forward the first rate hike and make the gradual rise in rates in 2016-17 less gradual”. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 18, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates
  23. USD/CAD consolidates below 1.0900 FXStreet (Córdoba) - The USD/CAD trades a touch softer Monday still capped below 1.0900, with the latest series of domestic data having no impact on the loonie. Data showed foreign investors reduced their holdings of Canadian securities by CAD 1.07 billion in June, led by the largest selloff on record of Canadian government bonds. The USD/CAD barely reacted to data but moved slightly higher within its 20-pip daily range. At time of writing, the USD/CAD is trading at 1.0885, down 0.11% on the day. USD/CAD levels to watch As for technical levels, the USD/CAD could find immediate supports at 1.0874 (20-day SMA), 1.0864/67 (200-day SMA/100-day SMA) and 1.0848 (Jul 30 low). On the other hand, resistances are seen at 1.0920 (10-day SMA), 1.0939 (Aug 13 high) and 1.0952 (Aug 12 high). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 18, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates
  24. USD/CAD consolidates below 1.0900 FXStreet (Córdoba) - The USD/CAD trades a touch softer Monday still capped below 1.0900, with the latest series of domestic data having no impact on the loonie. Data showed foreign investors reduced their holdings of Canadian securities by CAD 1.07 billion in June, led by the largest selloff on record of Canadian government bonds. The USD/CAD barely reacted to data but moved slightly higher within its 20-pip daily range. At time of writing, the USD/CAD is trading at 1.0885, down 0.11% on the day. USD/CAD levels to watch As for technical levels, the USD/CAD could find immediate supports at 1.0874 (20-day SMA), 1.0864/67 (200-day SMA/100-day SMA) and 1.0848 (Jul 30 low). On the other hand, resistances are seen at 1.0920 (10-day SMA), 1.0939 (Aug 13 high) and 1.0952 (Aug 12 high). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 18, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates
  25. EUR/USD still a sell on strength - Societe Generale FXStreet (Barcelona) - Kit Juckes, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Societe Generale, remains a seller on EUR rallies. Key Quotes "There is no new geo-political news over the weekend, and although hopes of a resolution to the Ukraine conflict are faint, we're starting the week with a (timid) risk bounce, and a dollar-negative bias. EUR/USD may test the top of the current mini-range (1.3330-1.3430) but is a sell on rallies; USD/JPY is stuck fast in its 101-103 range but we remain long; GBP/USD needs to break 1.6660 to re-invigorate the downtrend (maybe the CPI data tomorrow will help). Strong employment data have not had much impact on CAD but support a view that selling AUD/USD in a 0.93-0.94 range is a better strategic trade than buying USD/CAD. NOK/SEK continues to test 1.12." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Aug 18, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates
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