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OctaFX_Farid

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  1. EUR/USD sedated around 1.2950 FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The single currency remains under the effects of yesterday’s ECB announcements, with the EUR/USD meandering around 1.2950/55. EUR/USD focus on Payrolls The pair dropped from the mid-1.3100s to as low as 1.2920 following the ECB meeting and subsequent press conference by President Draghi, leaving the door open for further downside in case today’s Payrolls surprise to the upside. Market consensus expects the US economy to have created 225K in August and the jobless rate to decrease to 6.1% from 6.2%. Data wise in the euro area, the GDP figures showed a flat reading inter-quarter during Q2 and 0.7% on a yearly basis, in line with consensus. “We anticipated that the break of 1.3105 could lead to acceleration lower but the down-move was much deeper than expected. The lack of any significant bounce after touching a low of 1.2933 suggests further downside risk for today (albeit at a slower pace). Expect 1.2980 to cap any short-term recovery for another leg lower towards 1.2890”, signaled Quek Ser Leang, Market Strategist at UOB Group. EUR/USD levels to consider The pair is now up 0.09% at 1.2956 with the next resistance at 1.3030 (high Sep.4) followed by 1.3110 (low Sep.2) and then 1.3154 (high Sep.4). On the flip side, a breakdown of 1.2920 (low Sep.4) would aim for 1.2788 (61.8% of 1.2042-1.3995) and finally 1.2755 (low Jul.9 2013). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 05, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates
  2. European stocks edge lower after ECB shock, NFP eyed FXStreet (Córdoba) - European stocks were little changed Friday, a day after the European Central Bank (ECB) surprised markets by announcing rate cuts and other measures to support economic growth and fight deflation in the Eurozone. Meanwhile, investors are refraining from taking big positions ahead of the US nonfarm payrolls report. The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.32% to 347.77, pulling back from a 2-month high. As for country-specific indexes the UK FTSE dropped 0.29%. The Germany’s DAX 30 was up 0.12% while the France’s CAC 40 shed 0.10%. Spain’s Ibex 35 and Italy’s FTSE MIB were both little changed. On Thursday, the ECB took a step forward and cut all 3 of its main interest rates and announced it will start purchasing non-governmental securities and asset-backed securities (ABS) next month. However, the bank refrained from committing to unlimited sovereign QE. Equities markets received the ECB news with optimism. The Stoxx Europe 600 rallied 1.1% yesterday, closing at its highest level since July 3. Today, Eurozone GDP for the second quarter matched expectations of a 0.7% growth YoY. In the FX market, majors are taking a breather after yesterday’s fireworks. EUR/USD is nearly flat at the 1.2950 area after bottoming at a 14-month low of 1.2919 on the back of ECB expansionary measures. GBP/USD is trading at 1.6320, after hitting 7-month trough of 1.6285 while USD/JPY is also flat at the 105.20 region, having pulled back modestly from a 6-year peak of 105.70. As for commodities, gold recovered a tad after hitting a fresh 3-month low. The metal was 0.2% up at $1,264 an ounce while crude oil rose 0.52% to $94.93 a barrel. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 05, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates
  3. The ECB finally delivered – Danske Bank FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Pernille Nielsen, Senior Analyst at the Nordic Danske Bank, evaluated yesterday’s announcements by the ECB. Key Quotes “Overall, the measures should support the easing in June, when the ECB introduced a negative deposit rate and announced it would boost liquidity through TLTRO loans”. “At the same time, the ABS purchases will strengthen the effectiveness of the TLTROs as it removes loans from the banks’ balance sheet and hence increases the banks’ lending capacity to the real economy due to capital requirements”. “So far, the size of the ABS and covered bonds purchases is unknown and, according to Mario Draghi, it is difficult to assess the size of the ABS programme as it will include new and existing ABS”. “Draghi stated that the ECB has now reached the lower bound on policy rates”. “The ECB is still unanimous in using unconventional measures should it become necessary to further address risks on inflation”. “The decisions taken by the ECB should underpin anchoring of inflation expectations”. “The ECB still sees expectations as anchored, but it has seen downside risks to inflation increasing and due to that it eased again”. “The market reaction to the rate cut was pronounced as it was not expected with any greater conviction”. “It is noteworthy to see the steepening in the EUR swap curve from the long end as a sign of the market believing the ECB measures will lift growth and inflation expectations. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 05, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates
  4. SEB: S&P500 unhealthy price action - eFXnews FXStreet (Łódź) - As the eFXnews team point out the SEB sees S&P500's action as unhealthy, with another topside spike added on Thursday. Key quotes "Buyers encounter big difficulties to drive the trend further." "A sustained drop under 1.9888/86 remains an elevated risk - and if so, extension towards 1, 965 should be accounted for." "Current intraday stretches are located at 1,988 & 2,008." 'This content has been provided under specific arrangement with eFXnews.' OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 05, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates
  5. USD/JPY retreated from 6-year high before another attack FXStreet (Moscow) - USD/JPY retreated from almost 6-year high at 105.70 seen in Asia; it is trading at 105.24. Another volatile day Today the pair became even closer to 6-year highs, but the stronger than expected Non-Manufacturing ISM was not enough to convince the traders to buy more. Partially the cautious behavior of the market may be attributed to the looming Non-Farm Payrolls report. There are arguments for the employment rise, for instance, in form of strong ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment Component. However, there are also some leading indicators pointing to possible weakness of the report. We already know, the ADP reported worse than expected rise in payrolls, ISM Manufacturing Employment Component dropped to 58.1, and Jobless Claims 4-Week Moving Average rose to 302k. We may see another volatile day ahead! What are today’s key USD/JPY levels? Today's central pivot point can be found at 105.13, with support below at 104.89, 104.51 and 104.26 with resistance above at 105.51, 105.76, and 106.14. Hourly Moving Averages are mixed, with the 200SMA bullish at 104.39 and the daily 20EMA bullish at 103.75. Hourly RSI is bullish at 53. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 05, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates
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  7. ECB cuts rates and announces ABS purchases to fight low inflation FXStreet (Łódź) - During the press conference following ECB's unexpected decision to cut rates to new record lows at the September meeting, Mario Draghi also announced that simple asset-backed securities and covered bonds purchases would be launched next month. The introduction of ABS purchases, which are supposed to facilitate credit flows to the economy, was backed by a "comfortable" majority of the Governing Council members, as Mario Draghi assured. The measures are expected to reinforce the TLTRO program announced in June and coming into effect this month and push the balance sheet up to levels seen in 2012. Draghi refused to determine the size of the ABS program however, suggesting it is currently "difficult to assess." The introduction of measures, as well as the rate cuts, were prompted by the deterioration of inflation expectations in August, Draghi said. The ECB inflation forecast for 2014 was cut to 0.6% from 0.7%, while predictions for 2015 and 2016 remained unchanged, at 1.1% and 1.4%, respectively. As far as growth forecasts for the Eurozone are concerned, they were reduced to 0.9% this year from 1%, to 1.6% from 1.7% the next and were raised to 1.9% from 1.8% for 2016. "Structural reforms, fiscal policy and monetary policy can jointly support growth," Draghi assured. During the Q&A part of the press conference Draghi informed that the decision to cut rates and buy loans was not unanimous and that now "rates are at the lower bound where technical adjustments will not be possible." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 04, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates
  8. USD/CHF surges to 1-year highs FXStreet (Córdoba) - USD/CHF rallied to a fresh 1-year high as the franc weakened, moving in tandem with the euro, after announcement of rate cuts and asset buying program by the European Central Bank. USD/CHF has risen nearly 100 pips within the last hour, reaching a peak of 0.9269, last seen September 17 2013. At time of writing, USD/CHF is trading at 0.9265, 0.98% above its opening price, while EUR/USD hovers barely above 1.3000. Following ECB move, many suggested the SNB could be the next to cut deposit rates to protect the 1.2000 floor on EUR/CHF. However, such a decision is not imminent as the SNB still has other tools such as intervention for that aim. EUR/CHF has printed a 22-month low of 1.2043 and it was last at 1.2055. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 04, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates
  9. ECB's Draghi: New measures to provide support to TLTRO FXStreet (Łódź) - The ECB chief stresses that the measures introduced at today's meeting should reinforce the TLTRO program intoduced in June and coming into effect this month. • ABS will include real estate, Draghi informs. • It will purchase loans to the real economy. • "Structural reforms, fiscal policy and monetary policy can jointly support growth." • Draghi stresses that there is no bargain between Eurozone politicians and central bankers as they all should be doing their own jobs. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 04, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates
  10. ECB's Draghi: ECB's move prompted by worsening inflation outlook in August FXStreet (Łódź) - When asked about the definition of QE Draghi explains that it's not related to size but rather to the modalities. • The program is designed just to boost bank lending. • Draghi also assures a "comfortable" majority of the Governing Council members were in favor of implementing the ABS program. • "Rules have been followed when hiring investment management company BlackRock as a consultant for ABS program. • Draghi points to the deterioration of inflation expectations in August as the reason for cutting rates and introducing new measures at today's meeting. • Eurozone recovery is losing momentum. • Measures introduced today were aimed at moving the balance sheet up to 2012 levels. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 04, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates
  11. GBP/USD bounces at 1.6400 FXStreet (San Francisco) - The GBP/USD is performing a bounce from 1.6400 area as the pair is now trading at 1.6430. Earlier, the cable fell 70 pips from 1.6465 to trade at lows since February 11 at 1.6390 amid central banks decision. However the pair found buying interest at this level and now it is attempting to recover above 1.6430. Currently, GBP/USD is trading at 1.6431, down 0.18% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.6467 and low at 1.6394. GBP/USD spot is in neutral territory according to the hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bearish. GBP/USD levels If the pair continues to recover, next resistance will be 1.6460, 1.6500 and 1.6545. On the downside, 1.6395, 1.6340 and 1.6250 are supports. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 04, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates
  12. ECB's Draghi: No more cuts planned FXStreet (Łódź) - During the Q&A part of the press conference Draghi informs that the decision to cut rates and buy loans was not unanimous. • The unexpected decision will not undermine credibility, the ECB head assures. • "ECB is at the lower bound where technical adjustments will not be possible." • QE was discussed by the Governing Council today. •"This time we would buy outright ABS Senior and Mezzanine tranches only with a guarantee." • The Governing Council discussed several figures on the ABS plan but for now it is difficult to assess. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 04, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates
  13. EUR/GBP homing in on 0.7900 FXStreet (London) - Following the ECB decision to cut rates to 0.05% from 0.15%, while the BoE held firm at 0.5%, EUR/GBP has declined sharply today, with 0.7900 in focus. ECB trims, BoE holds With the BoE holding policy as expected, the main focus of the day fell on the ECB’s decision to trim rates from 0.15% to 0.05% record lows. In the current press conference, Draghi has commented that the ECB has decided to start ABS purchases aimed at facilitating credit flows to the European economy. The measures are set to start on October 2nd, and will have a sizeable effect on the ECB balance sheet. Further, he added that the Governing Council is unanimous in its commitment to using additional unconventional instruments within its mandate. EUR/GBP price action Having traded in a tight range overnight, sitting above the daily pivot point at 0.7983. However, with the ECB rate cut, spot dived dramatically from a morning high at 0.7992, to a low at 0.7913. While near term momentum looks to have steadied the decline, the rest of Draghi’s speech and presser will be watched closely to see if 0.7900 will be tested. EUR/GBP Levels Current price is 0.7919, with resistance ahead at 0.7934 (Weekly Classic PP), 0.7940 (Daily Classic S3), 0.7946 (Hourly 100 SMA), 0.7952 (Hourly 200 SMA) and 0.7952 (Daily Classic S2). To the downside we see next support at 0.7914 (Daily Low), 0.7905 (Monthly Low), 0.7905 (Weekly Low), 0.7892 (YTD Low) and 0.7891 (Annual Low). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 04, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates
  14. ECB's Draghi: Governing Council decided to buy simple ABS FXStreet (Łódź) - The ECB Governing Council unexpectedly decided to cut rates to new record lows at the September meeting, and during the subsequent press conference Mario Draghi announces also the start of ABS purchases. • ABS purchases will facilitate credit flows to the economy, the ECB head explains. • Details will be announced on October 2. • The new measures will have a sizable impact on the ECB balance sheet. • The measures will support forward guidance on key interest rates. • "If necessary, the Governing Council is unanimous in its commitment to using additional unconventional instruments within its mandate." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 04, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates
  15. United States Initial Jobless Claims came in at 302K, above forecasts (300K) in August 29 Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 04, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates
  16. GBP/USD marking time ahead of BoE FXStreet (Córdoba) - GBP/USD continues to suffer amid fears of Scottish independence as investors await the Bank of England policy decision. However, in the absence of surprises from the BoE, as widely expected, attention will quickly return to the Scottish referendum. Jitters of a yes vote has kept the pound under pressure this week, having lost roughly 2 cents over the last sessions. Goldman Sachs has warned a "yes" vote on September 18, while seemingly unlikely, could have severe consequences for both the Scottish economy and the UK overall. GBP/USD bottomed out at 1.6439 yesterday’s NY session, last seen February 12, and is currently going through a consolidation phase just above that level. At time of writing, Cable is trading at 1.6458, virtually unchanged on the day. GBP/USD levels to watch As for technical levels, immediate supports are seen at 1.6439 (Sep 3 low), 1.6425 (Feb 12 low) and 1.6400 (psychological level). On the other hand, resistances line up at 1.6464 (Sep 4 high), 1.6485 (23.6% Fibo of 1.6643-1.6439) and the 1.6496/1.6500 area (Sep 3 high/psychological level). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 04, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates
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  18. BoC keeps interest rate unchanged at 1% in September FXStreet (Łódź) - In line with forecasts, the Bank of Canada decided to maintain its target for the overnight rate unchanged at 1% at its September monetary policy meeting. The bank rate remained at 1.25% and the deposit rate at 0.75%. In a statement released after the decision was made known, the BoC said that inflation, currently near the 2% target accelerated due to "energy prices, exchange rate pass-through, and other sector-specific factors rather than to any change in domestic economic fundamentals." Canadian Q2 GDP has strengthened in line with the central bank's predictions, but a sustained expansion needs to be seen "before it will translate into higher business investment and hiring." Due to the fact that "the outlook for inflation remain roughly balanced, while the risks associated with household imbalances have not diminished" the BoC decided that keeping its target for the overnight rate unchanged at 1% was an appropriate move this month. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 03, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates
  19. Odds of more ECB easing increase - Ilian Yotov FXStreet (Łódź) - Ilian Yotov, Portfolio Manager at ATFX Currency Management believes that there is more possibility of the ECB announcing monetary policy easing at the meeting on Thursday due to the further decline in Eurozone CPI and the area's growth grinding to a halt in Q2. Key quotes "The ECB President Draghi has also been very clear in recent speeches that the door is wide open to easing monetary policy further." "In fact, the ECB has announced recently that it is looking to hire consultants to advise the central bank on QE strategies." "With the ECB one step closer to launching a QE program, the divergence in the monetary policies between the ECB and other central banks is becoming bigger and even more visible, which should keep the EUR under pressure." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 03, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates
  20. CAD firms a Little ahead of BoC - TD Securities FXStreet (Łódź) - The TD Securities team of analysts observe that ahead of the Bank of Canada interest rate announcement today the USD/CAD fell from the 40s back to near 1.0900. Key quotes "Fundamentally, we are USD bullish and think the CAD may emerge from other side of the BoC statement a little softer." "But technically, the short-term charts suggest that the intraday peak may be in for USDCAD here already and that funds may pressure support around 1.09 (200-day MA at 1.0901)." "Below here should see 1.0870 retested." "Contrasting fundamental/technical drivers underscore our broader view that we may remain in a 1.08/1.10 range until a stronger sense of direction develops. " OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 03, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates
  21. Credit Agricole: Strong US data could keep the recent USD trend in place - eFXnews FXStreet (Łódź) - The eFXnews team point out that Credit Agricole believe that the broad-based rally in USD is driven mostly by data surprises and economic divergence. Key quotes "US economic data surprises surged in August and the index has retraced nearly 76% of the 2014 move. Moreover, yesterday’s release of the August ISM manufacturing showed the index at a multi-year high." "In relative terms, the outperformance of US data surprises against the G10 persists." "This dynamic has led the 2-year rate to increase 14bp over the past three months, recoupling the association between front-end rates and FX." "We also note the recoupling of the 2-year rate and FX suggests that economic data, rather than Fed rhetoric, should have a greater impact on price action." "As such, stronger US economic releases this week could keep the recent USD trend in place, especially at the expense of currencies with central banks in easing mode." "However, mild pullback is likely given market positioning and possible technical exhaustion." "A possible pivot point for the DXY index is the 83.73 level – a key retracement level from July 2013 high." 'This content has been provided under specific arrangement with eFXnews.' OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 03, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates
  22. Session Recap: Ukraine's headlines drive markets FXStreet (Córdoba) - Investors welcomed news of an agreement between Russia and Ukraine to cease fire, which lifted risk appetite across markets. However, equities trimmed some of their initial spikes, gold recovered from lows and the euro eased from highs as markets are confused by subsequent downplays and denials from Moscow. The EUR/USD jumped to a high of 1.3156 following the first headlines despite disappointing services PMIs from the region. The GBP/USD recovered from 6-month lows, helped by a strong service PMI reading, but the bounce was halted a few pips shy of the 1.6600 level. The USD/JPY remained pretty steady around 105.00, while the AUD/USD continued to benefit from a strong GDP reading and hawkish comments from RBA Stevens. Elsewhere, European equities and US futures remain firm but off highs. Gold bounced of an 11-week low and erased intraday losses to trade near $1,267 an ounce. During the New York session, watch for US factory orders data and the Fed beige book. Main headlines in Europe: What’s the sentiment around the EUR/USD today? – Commerzbank and OCBC Bank EUR/USD ignored PMIs, focused geopolitics and rushed above 1.3150 Ukrainian and Russian presidents agree permanent ceasefire UK: Services PMI rises against expectations in August Risk appetite surges as Russia and Ukraine agree ceasefire European Monetary Union Retail Sales (YoY) registered at 0.8%, below expectations (0.9%) in July Russia denies ceasefire deal USD/RUB lost all the September gains in a second Gold recovers from 11-week lows OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 03, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates
  23. USD/JPY clinches to 105.00 FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The greenback is losing the grip vs. the Japanese currency on Wednesday, with the USD/JPY now coming down to the 105.00 region from above 105.30. USD/JPY points to fresh year highs above 105.40 Spot remains bid despite today’s correction, recently boosted by changes in Abe’s cabinet. The pair seems to be taking a breather on its way to test ytd peaks just above the 105.40 level against the backdrop of the USD rally. “The anticipated USD strength is much, much stronger than expected. Upward momentum remains strong and the current rally is expected to extend towards the year-to-date high of 105.40/45; 104.85 is acting as a strong intraday support”, observed Quek Ser Leang, Market Strategist at UOB Group. USD/JPY levels to watch At the moment the pair is losing 0.02% at 105.07 and a breakdown of 104.41 (Tenkan Sen) would expose 104.30 (low Sep.2) and finally 104.20 (10-d MA). On the other hand, the immediate hurdle lines up at 105.31 (high Sep.3) ahead of 105.42 (high Jan.10) and then 105.45 (2014 high Jan.1). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 03, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates
  24. Gold recovers from 11-week lows FXStreet (Córdoba) - Gold recovered from 11-week lows Wednesday and it is trading nearly flat on the day amid contradictory headlines about an agreement between Russia and Ukraine. The yellow metal saw a quick drop toward a fresh 11-week low near $1,261 as investors dumped the safe-haven in a bout of risk appetite. However, with Moscow downplaying the truce, the price climbed back to opening levels. At time of writing, the XAU/USD is trading at $1,267/oz, little changed on the day. On Tuesday, greenback's strength outweighed any safe-haven appeal and pushed gold prices toward their biggest fall in nearly 3 months. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 03, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates
  25. EUR/USD up and down on Ukrainian news - FXStreet FXStreet (Łódź) - FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik comments on today's EUR/USD moves, with risk once on and then off again and then back on due to the contradicting news coming from different sources on the Russian-Ukrainian ceasefire deal. Key quotes "Early news of a permanent ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia triggering a relief rally among high yielders and pushing EUR/USD up to 1.3550." "But the news was denied around 30 minutes later, as Putin spokesman denied the cease fire, but a few minutes afterwards it said that Russian President does back the idea of a immediate ceasefire in Ukraine." "The EUR/USD retraced down to current 1.3140 area, measly 20 pips above pre news levels, with the hourly chart showing price struggling around a bearish 20 SMA and momentum crossing its midline to the upside." "Chances of a stronger upward move seem limited with all the back and forth in the geopolitical news, and ahead of ECB economic policy decision on Thursday, yet an upward acceleration above mentioned daily high could see price approaching the 1.3190/1.3200 price zone." "On the other hand, the downside remains protected by the static support at 1.3105, September 2013 monthly low, and it will take a clear break below it to see a bearish extension towards 1.3050/60 price zone. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Sep 03, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates
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