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No additional easing expected from the BoJ this week - RBS FXStreet (Łódź) - The RBS team of analysts believe that the results of the June BoJ Tankan Survey, released last week, point to no action from the BoJ at its monetary policy meeting on Thursday. Key quotes "While large manufacturer sentiment D.I., the headline value, fell by more than our expectation to +12 points in the June BoJ Tankan Survey (+17 points in the previous survey), the value for the outlook improved in line with our estimate and the content was reasonable, in our view." "The BoJ expressed considerable confidence in achieving the price target by the middle of the outlook period through FY16." "The latest Tankan Survey confirms that the overall economy continues to run at a robust pace considering the absence of a sharp drop in employment and production and operational equipment D.I. values, despite encountering a demand setback from the consumption tax hike." "We expect the BoJ to sustain its assessment that 'the economy’s macro supply-demand balance continues to tighten' in light of the Tankan Survey results because it directly estimates and assesses a supply-demand balance for the utilisation of employment and economic capital." "We hence think that the BoJ will retain its bullish price outlook even without relying on a more complicated trend of an 'upward shift' by or 'steepening' of the Phillips curve presenting the average relationship between the macro supply-demand balance and inflation rate." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 07, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates

BoE in the limelight this week - Investec FXStreet (Barcelona) - Jonathan Pryor, Corporate Treasury Analyst at Investec, underlines the relevance of the MPC meeting ahead in the week. Key Quotes "Very little out on the data front today so it’s likely the market will continue to be driven by the result of Thursday’s impressive payroll figures. However, the main event of the week will be when the Monetary Policy Committee makes its July announcement at midday on Thursday." "This will be the first MPC meeting since Mark Carney’s Mansion House speech, when the BoE Governor warned that interest rates could rise sooner than markets were expecting. However the motivation behind the statement is likely to have been to warn markets of a general trend, not an imminent event". "Accordingly policy looks set to be held steady again for now, with the Bank rate on hold at 0.5% and the stock of asset purchases at £375bn." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 07, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates

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EUR/USD year end target 1.3000 - BAML FXStreet (Guatemala) - Team BAML explained that their forecast for EUR/USD at year end is 1.30, a move of less than 5%. Key Quotes " This seems eminently achievable (25% of FX forecasters agree), but options imply only a 10% probability that it will occur." "This probability seems very low yet by most measures the options are fair or even expensive so how can this be? This simple example illustrates how extreme low volatility creates a disconnect between perception and pricing of what constitutes a tail event." "This phenomenon is particularly pronounced for currencies because they are a low volatility asset class. Currencies are not historically close to equilibrium levels, so that the size of adjustments that a tail event would produce should be at least comparable to prior instances. Subdued global inflation suggests that a tail event is unlikely, but almost by definition tail events always seem unlikely, so how can we prepare in the most cost efficient manner?" OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 04, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates

ECB watching exchnage rate with "great attention"- BBH FXStreet (Guatemala) - Marc Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman noted that the euro has shed a big figure against the dollar this week after it failed to establish a foothold above the 1.3700. Key Quotes: "There were no substantial near-term policy developments from the ECB yesterday. The focus was on the announcements of lengthening the time between meetings to six weeks and the eventual release of minutes from the meetings. Last month Draghi was understood to say that interest rate policy had been exhausted, but today he seemed to backtrack a bit." "He said that a technical adjustment could not be ruled out. It is not clear what this means, but it could be a cut in the corridor by bringing the marginal lending rate down." "On the exchange rate, Draghi shed little fresh light. It is not a policy target, but it is an important input into inflation." "He did seem a bit frustrated with the euro's resilience despite the rate cuts and other measures. He said he was watching the exchange rate with "great attention."" OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 04, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates

GBP/USD closing London in mid 1.71 handle FXStreet (Guatemala) - GBP/USD is trading at 1.7149, down -0.03% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.7181 and low at 1.7131. GBP/USD was taken out in mid point London after posting the high for the year 1.7181. It is settled in at and around 1.7150 as we approach London closing which leaves the long term and committed bulls in for action next week and room for those who cashed in to re-enter if their sights are still set on the psychological 1.72 handle. The main risk events ahead for the pair will be the FOMC minutes and then the BoE next week. Looking to a daily chart, we see that RSI is neutral at 71.82. GBP/USD Levels With spot trading at 1.7150, we can see next resistance ahead at 1.7151 (Hourly 20 EMA), 1.7155 (Daily Open), 1.7166 (Monthly High), (Weekly High) and (Annual High). Support below can be found at 1.7142 (Daily Classic PP), 1.7141 (Hourly 100 SMA), 1.7131 (Daily Low), 1.7114 (Daily Classic S1) and 1.7114(Weekly Classic R2). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 04, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates

UK Industrial Production expected to rise 0.3% in May - RBS FXStreet (Łódź) - Ross Walker, Senior UK Economist at RBS, predicts that month-on-month UK Industrial Production data, due out next Tuesday, could rise 0.3% in May. Key quotes "Industrial production rose 0.4% m/m in April, taking the y/y rate up to 3.0% from 2.5% and growth in the latest 3 months up to 1.1% from 0.7%." "The rise in April was underpinned by a 0.4% rise in manufacturing output – the fifth successive monthly rise, with a positive contribution from electricity, gas & steam being offset by declines in oil & gas and water supply." "Survey evidence has remained positive, with the PMI output balance remaining at elevated levels in May. CBI industrial trends orders and output balances were barely altered in May (at relatively buoyant levels)." "Similarly, the BoE Agents scores for manufacturing output were broadly maintained in May, with domestic activity more buoyant than the export-facing sector." "We forecast IP to rise 0.3% m/m in May, taking the y/y rate up to 3.2% and leaving the sector on course to expand by 1.0% q/q in Q2." "For manufacturing output, the risks appear skewed towards a slightly higher outturn (given the more-often-than-not drag from the energy components – in 7 of the previous 8 months)." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 04, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates

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USD/CAD strongly rejected at 1.0680; now at daily lows FXStreet (San Francisco) - After trying to break above highs around 1.0680, the USD/CAD was rejected at this level and launched to trade at daily lows around 1.0630. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.0636, down 0.26% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.0682 and low at 1.0633. The FXStreet OB/OS Index is reflecting neutral hourly conditions, while the FXStreet Trend Index is strongly bearish. USD/CAD levels On the downside, a break below 1.0620 would expose the 1.0600 area ahead of 1.0590. On the upside, resistances are at 1.0645, 1.0680 and 1.0695. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 03, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates

USD/JPY extends advance to 2-week high at 102.25 The USD/JPY extended its post-NFP gains from 101.80 area and now it is testing the 102.25 level where the pair found some selling interest. Currently, USD/JPY is trading at 102.19, up 0.43% on the day, having posted a daily high at 102.30 and low at 101.75. The hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index is showing overbought conditions, alongside the FXStreet Trend Index which is slightly bullish. USD/JPY Sentiment "US 10 year notes are now at a 2.657% yield, up a bit less than 3 bp on the day. Earlier they rose to 2.69%, briefly," points Jamie Coleman from FXStreet. "USD/JPY may struggle to maintain its altitude if yields ease further. We trade now at 102.15 after reaching 102.26 highs earlier this morning." If the pair manages to break above 102.25, it would face resistance at 102.40 and 102.60. On the downside, supports are at 102.00, 101.75 and 101.60. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 03, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates

EUR/USD finds support at 1.3595, back to 1.3620 FXStreet (San Francisco) - The Euro finally found support at the 1.3600 area against the US dollar as the pair is bouncing back to trade around 1.3620. The EUR/USD fell around 55 pips from 1.3650 post US employment report to trade below the 1.3600 mark at 1.3595, lowest since June 26. Currently, EUR/USD is trading at 1.3614, down 0.33% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.3665 and low at 1.3595. The hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index is showing neutral conditions, alongside the FXStreet Trend Index which is slightly bearish. EUR/USD sentiment EUR/USD is trading in consolidation mode around former support at 1.3620. If the pair manages to recover above this level, next resistances are at 1.3640 and 1.3660. On the downside, supports come at 1.3600, 1.3575 and 1.3560. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 03, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates

US labor market gaining momentum, but 'shadow unemployment' still severely high - BNP Paribas FXStreet (Łódź) - Alexandra Estiot, Senior Economist at BNP Paribas comments on the surprisingly strong US NFP report which showed an increase in hiring of 288K in June, saying that a momentum is definitely building, although the level of underutilization of labor remains high. Key quotes "On a 3-month average basis, job creations reached 272k in June. On a year-on-year basis, payrolls growth is a notch below 2.5 million, i.e. the highest reading since the end of 2005." "As we have argued for a long time, even if very strong over the last five months –and longer, actually, if December 2013 and January 2014 are analysed as harsh winter related weakness –this pace is still insufficient for rapidly absorbing the very high level of under-utilised labour." "What Janet Yellen recently called 'shadow unemployment' remains severely high. We can always argue about how to measure it, as the labour force participation rate definitely went down partly because of an ageing population, but its effects are clear." "Indeed, despite the rapid fall in the unemployment rate, which reached a 6-year low of 6.1% in June, average hourly earnings did not accelerate at all. In June, they gained 0.2% over the month, i.e. +2% from a year earlier, incredibly stable over the last four years." "Still, there are signs that optimism is allowed. The duration of unemployment episodes is going down. On average, they last 33.5 weeks in June, as compared with37.1 in February. This improvement is noticeable in broad measures of unemployment." "As long as wage inflation remains that subdued and the labour force participation rate does not go up again, there will be no reasons to call it a victory over mass unemployment." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 03, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates

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EUR/USD 1.3647 is key - Scotiabank FXStreet (Guatemala) - Camilla Sutton, CFA, CMT, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank notes the conditions surrounding the EUR/USD as we are getting two sides to the story here. Key Quotes: "Yesterday, EUR reached a multi-month high, flirting with 1.37; however into the NA open it has softened, down 0.1%”. “Recent data has been mixed; the Eurozone manufacturing PMI suggest expansion but at a slower rate than expected; the flash CPI hints at a bottoming in disinflationary pressures; while today’s PPI warns of ongoing disinflationary pressures." "We expect it is the above that will shape the tone at the ECB. Last month’s actions were dramatic but it is still early to judge the impact." "Accordingly we expect a fairly cautious tone, but one the market is prepared for. For EUR this implies it should be comfortable trading in a broad range of 1.35 to 1.3750." "EUR/USD short-term technicals: bullish—most studies warn of upside momentum; however a break and close below Monday’s open of 1.3647 would warn of fading upside pressure. Support lies at 1.3600; while resistance comes in at the 100-day MA at 1.3740." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 02, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates

Draghi expected to signal 'wait and see' stance at tomorrow's press conference - FXStreet FXStreet (Łódź) - FXStreet Analyst Jamie Coleman suggests that ECB chief Mario Draghi will focus on two main themes during tomorrow's post-decision press conference: ECB's need to assess the impact of last month's measures and the availability of additional policy tools. Key quotes "Draghi will stress that the programs announced in June have not yet been fully implemented. TLTROs won't even launch until September. ABS market rejuvenation is a long-term project and has barely begun." "'We have additional tools.' He won't go into much detail, frankly because there is no there there. Draghi will bluff, however, saying the governing council stands united if additional easing measures are needed." "There are outside risks that since the euro heads into the July meeting on firmer footing than it entered the June meeting, he could attempt to talk down the currency. I put the odds of that at about 1-in-3. Perhaps he will repeat that 'brutal' FX moves are unwelcome, as his predecessor Trichet did in 2004 and again in 2007." "The risk for the ECB is that the market determines that it is truly out of bullets and pushes the euro even higher in an effort to provoke a policy response. Markets love to inflict pain, and that would be a very good way to do it." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 02, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates

Draghi expected to signal 'wait and see' stance at tomorrow's press conference - FXStreet FXStreet (Łódź) - FXStreet Analyst Jamie Coleman suggests that ECB chief Mario Draghi will focus on two main themes during tomorrow's post-decision press conference: ECB's need to assess the impact of last month's measures and the availability of additional policy tools. Key quotes "Draghi will stress that the programs announced in June have not yet been fully implemented. TLTROs won't even launch until September. ABS market rejuvenation is a long-term project and has barely begun." "'We have additional tools.' He won't go into much detail, frankly because there is no there there. Draghi will bluff, however, saying the governing council stands united if additional easing measures are needed." "There are outside risks that since the euro heads into the July meeting on firmer footing than it entered the June meeting, he could attempt to talk down the currency. I put the odds of that at about 1-in-3. Perhaps he will repeat that 'brutal' FX moves are unwelcome, as his predecessor Trichet did in 2004 and again in 2007." "The risk for the ECB is that the market determines that it is truly out of bullets and pushes the euro even higher in an effort to provoke a policy response. Markets love to inflict pain, and that would be a very good way to do it." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 02, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates

Italian PM expresses faith in EU institutions FXStreet (Łódż) - Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, who spoke before the European Parliament in Strasbourg on Wednesday, expressed his faith in EU institutions, adding however that change is necessary as well. He suggested that if Britain decided to exit the EU, it would be a great loss. Moreover, Renzi urged the MEPs to "bring back confidence and hope to the EU." On July 1 Italy took over the six-month EU presidency from Greece. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 02, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates

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GBP/JPY consolidates highs around 174.00 FXStreet (San Francisco) - The GBP/JPY is joining the sterling strength this week and after climbing 70 pips from 173.40 to nearly 6 month highs at 174.20 in the European morning, the pair is now trading in consolidation mode around 174.00. Currently, GBP/JPY is trading at 174.06, up 0.44% on the day, having posted a daily high at 174.25 and low at 173.27. The hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index is showing overbought conditions, alongside the FXStreet Trend Index which is slightly bullish. GBP/JPY levels If the pair holds above 174.00, the GBP/JPY would face resistances at 174.50 and 175.00. On the downside, 173.90, 173.40 and 173.10 are supports. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 01, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates

US: PMI Manufacturing falls to 57.3 in June FXStreet (Łódź) - US Markit Manufacturing PMI dropped to 57.3 in June, from 57.5 in May, according to data released today by Markit. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 01, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates

United States Construction Spending (MoM) came in at 0.1%, below expectations (0.5%) in May Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page July 01, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates

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ECB successful with its message to markets?– Rabobank FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analyst at Rabobank explained with its June rate decision, the ECB has brought its key repo rate to the lowest, practically feasible, level. Key Quotes: “To acknowledge this, its forward guidance language now reads “the key ECB interest rates will remain at present levels for an extended period of time in view of the current outlook for inflation.” Compared to the previous guidance, the possibility of a further cut has been removed”. “However, the ECB has been keen to stress that the conventional measures, which accompanied the rate cuts, imply that its message of forward guidance has been further strengthened”. “The extension of the full allotment procedure until at least end-2016 and the introduction of fixed rate TLTROs (which potentially may extend to end-2018 if banks meet certain criteria) are the ECB’s main exhibits to support this claim”. “So, has the ECB been successful in getting its message across? It would certainly appear so”. “First of all, market expectations of future interest rates have dropped markedly since May, when Draghi hinted at “action in June” and even further since the actual announcements in June”. “This is illustrated in figure 1. Secondly, the variance in future rate expectations by analysts has dropped almost to zero1, which is illustrated in figure 2 where we have used results from Reuters ECB polls since October last year. There is very little doubt among market participants that the ECB will keep its refi rate at 15bp until, at least, 2015Q4”. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page June 28, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates