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EMU: Trade surplus unchanged at €12B in December Eurozone Trade surplus s.a. remained unchanged at €12 billion in December, according to data released today by Eurostat. Eurozone trade surplus n.s.a. narrowed to €11.7B in December, from €13.0 billion in November and against expectations of widening slightly to €13.1 billion. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Feb 15, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates

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Forex Flash: Credit, CAD, and AUD are all showing signs of valuation fatigue – Societe Generale Kit Juckes, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Societe Generale notes that data wise, there is little on offer this afternoon. He comments that he will sit back and watch equities while waiting for the State of the Union address later this evening and he will be paying especial attention to how credit performs relative to the S&P Index. In particular he notes that Credit, AUD and CAD are all showing signs of valuation fatigue. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Feb 12, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates

Forex: EUR/CHF retraces from highs, around 1.2330 The Swiss franc is trimming earlier gains vs. the single currency on Tuesday, pushing the pair from the boundaries of 1.2280 to the current levels around 1.2330, challenging overnight tops above 1.2340 After a G7 statement regarding the so-called ‘currency war’, Trevor Greetham, Director of Asset Allocation at Fidelity Worldwide Investment, argued, “On one level, this is a slap on the wrist to Japanese ministers talking about specific levels but it allows them to carry on with policies aimed at creating domestic inflation. You could argue the clear FX manipulators out there are the Swiss with the SNB’s Jordan saying today that the Swiss franc’s 1.20 cap against the euro is still in place, the franc will weaken further and they stand ready to take further measures”. At the moment, the cross is posting marginal losses at 1.2332 or 0.02%. Next support levels line up at 1.2255 (lows Feb.8/11) ahead of 1.2200 (psychological level) and then 1.2187 (low Jan.14). On the upside, a break above 1.2356 (high Feb.12) would expose 1.2369 (high Feb.6) and then 1.2505 (high Feb.4). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Feb 12, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates

Forex Flash: Energy dependence a reason to be a long term GBP/USD bear – Societe Generale Kit Juckes, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Societe Generale feels that the UK´s energy dependence situation is a good reason for being a long term bear on GBP/USD. However, Juckes sees more supporting factors on the horizon. Firstly, he notes concern expressed by the fed´s Professor Stein about asset bubbles. Fed hawkes are slowly building influence and a policy rethink may still be months away but will be inevitable in the long run. Secondly, he notes the trend in UK inflation which has been above the MPC´s target since 2009. He writes, “UK inflation has been above US inflation since October 2008, and that has a bearing on the real exchange rate too. GBP/USD will track EUR/USD, so Euro resilience will support GBP/USD. The pound still looks undervalued on a fundamental basis relative to the Euro. But despite that, short GBP/USD seems a viable long term trade and a better tactical trade than shorting EUR/USD too early. It’s certainly a good way of expressing the shift in relative energy dependence.” OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Feb 11, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates

Forex Flash: NOK/SEK could find downside pressure this week – Danske Bank The pair is retracing earlier gains after posting fresh monthly highs in the proximities of 1.1660 ahead of the Riksbank monetary policy meeting due on February 13. Market consensus still remain pretty divided regarding a rate cut, as late improvement in Swedish data out of the retail sales and manufacturing and services PMI would add further pressure to the Nordic central bank. “We remain hesitant and still believe that a cut in April is more plausible as the Swedish economy in line with the global economy seems to be stabilising. If we are correct that the Riksbank will keep rates unchanged, NOK/SEK should see some downside potential this week”, explained Senior Analyst C.Tuxen at Danske Bank. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Feb 11, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates

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Forex Flash: What lies ahead of EUR/USD? – Commerzbank, BTMU and UBS The shared currency has managed to put the ECB meeting in the rear window and is currently posting fresh highs in the proximities of 1.3420, buoyed by the likeliness of an agreement from the European Council on the 2014-2020 Budget. Recalling the last break above the key area of 1.3485/1.3562, Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank commented, “We suspect that this was a false break higher, however key support remains the 1.3125 6 month uptrend and a close below here is required to negate the upmove completely.” In addition, Derek Halpenny, researcher at BTMU, explains “We may finally get an EU budget deal later today with rumours of a deal based on the first real-term budget cut in EU history. That may help stabilise the single currency which is being undermined in part by some renewed liquidation of yen short positions”. The bullish outlook on the cross remains intact, according to Strategists G.Yu and G.Berry at the Swiss UBS, arguing, “The strong support is at 1.3354. While this holds, the risk is for resumption of strength. Resistance is at 1.3578 ahead of 1.3711”. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Feb 08, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates

Forex Flash: USD/JPY year-end target at 95.00 – Scotiabank The Japanese yen seems to have found intraday support in the boundaries of 93.10 on Thursday, after the ECB has ignited a rally in the safe havens, dragging the cross from levels around 93.70 “The upward trend in USDJPY is too strong to fight and tied into equities. Technicals are not providing any warning signals that the trend is at risk. We hold a year-end USDJPY target of 95, but expect that it could temporarily range as high as 100 before drifting back”, assessed Camilla Sutton, Chief Currency Strategist at Scotiabank. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Feb 07, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates

Forex: GBP/USD holds up at 1.5700 after UK NIESR GDP Incoming BoE Governor Carney brought the GBP/USD back above the 1.5700 psychological level after triggering a rally from 1.5650 to 1.5769 spike high with his testimony before the UK Parliament. Since then, the pair has been consolidating its position above 1.5700, even after the release of UK NIESR GDP estimate for January. From an estimated -0.3% recession in December, the estimate of growth over the last 3 months in the UK has risen to 0.0% in January, according to NIESR. Incoming BoE Governor Carney assured that he would not alter significantly the central bank's current monetary policy strategy but that he was in favor of introducing more stimulus for a period of time and communicating it in order to help manage market expectations. He also said that the central bank must exit unconventional policy. The MPC decided to keep the key rate at 0.5% and the asset purchases at £375B, as expected by investors, in the meeting of February 7. “The £6.6 billion cash flow comprises the redemption payment on the gilt, as well as the cash flow resulting from the indemnity provided by HM Treasury to the Bank of England in order to cover any difference between the redemption payment and the original amount invested”, said the official statement. “The GBP/USD currency pair continues consolidating near its minimums. I think today the pair may form any type of reversal pattern to start growing up and break the latest descending channel”, wrote Roboforex.com analyst Igor Sayadov. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Feb 07, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates

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Forex: GBP/USD soars as Carney testimony starts GBP/USD has soared closed to a point as in coming BoE Governor Carney is delivering his testimony to the Treasury Select Committee this morning. He has told the group that the bank must exit unconventional policy and protect the integrity of the Pound. He added that the bar to changing monetary policy framework must be very high and central banks should be flexible on targeting inflation. Further, he believes that the BoE must enhance forecasting. The market reaction has seen Cable soar on talk that an end to easing will be targeted and spot is now currently trading at 1.5731, just below the hourly 200 MA, having made a high at 1.5767. RSI has spiked high and climbed to 76. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Feb 07, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates

In a recent speech to the European Parliament, French President Francois Hollande urged the euro zone to set a mid-term target for the EUR exchange rate In a recent speech to the European Parliament, French President Francois Hollande urged the euro zone to set a mid-term target for the EUR exchange rate and to forge a jobs policy to fight political disillusionment at reforms. Hollande's calls ran into immediate opposition from German Economy minister Roesler who recommended that the focus should instead be on competitiveness rather than weakening the currency. Luxembourg Finance Minister Luc Frieden said the euro's level doesn't concern him at present and its strength follows the economic reality of the euro zone. Staying in Europe, Fitch joined Moody's and S&P in assigning a negative outlook to Netherland's AAA rating. According to Macro Strategy Analysts J. Reid and C. Tan at Deutsche Bank, “The outlook revision reflects Fitch's concerns over persistent banking system problems – as highlighted by the recent nationalization of SNS Reaal (the country's fourth largest banking group) - and public debt levels higher than those of top-rated peers.” Dutch 10yr yields closed 3bp higher on the day and were largely unmoved following Fitch's announcement. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Feb 06, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates

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Forex Flash: No reason for a AUD selloff on the RBA decision - Commerzbank Commerzbank analysts consider the RBA statement to be relatively balanced: "It is becoming clear that the RBA will take a wait and see attitude as far as domestic demand is concerned before taking further steps. After all it left the key rate unchanged at 3.0% which corresponds to our expectations", wrote analyst Antje Praefcke, adding that the stamente pointed out that the global outlook has improved, a fact that other central banks have also referred to recently, and there are only moderate changed to the domestic economy part. As growth is slightly below the trend (but past rate cuts are beginning to show some of the expected effects) and inflation remains low, it very much looks as if the RBA wasn’t done yet with its current rate cut cycle but as if it prefers to wait for further data releases before changing rates again. "Easier conditions would in turn make things easier for areas outside the mining sector to fill the gap left by the end of the investment boom in the mining sector", he wrote. "The RBA is clearly hoping for a soft transition in a divided economy: slowly ending investment boom in the mining sector with a simultaneous recovery in other sectors (e.g. manufacturing sector and others) thanks to lower rates", continued the Commerzbank analyst, attentive to what is coming next, but with no reason to sell the AUD massively as a result of the rate decision. "We think 1.0350-80 should hold in AUD-USD", he concluded. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Feb 05, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates

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Forex Flash: Central banks constitute major focus this week – Deutsche Bank A major focus for the week will be on the ECB, BoE (Thursday) and RBA (Tuesday) meetings this week. According to Macro Strategy Analysts J. Reid and C. Tan at Deutsche Bank, “The market is not expecting a change in policy from the ECB and BoE, although Draghi's post-ECB press conference will be closely watched in light of last week's softer bank lending survey.” On the same day as the ECB and BoE meetings, governor-in-waiting Mark Carney will appear before the UK House of Commons Treasury Committee to be questioned by lawmakers ahead of his formal takeup of the BoE governorship. Carney's recent comments on revising the monetary policy framework will likely be a subject of questioning. With respect to the RBA, 20 out of 27 economists polled by Bloomberg (including DB) expect no change in the overnight cash rate. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Feb 04, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates

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