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Forex Flash: Growth shocks in US unlikely to trigger downside for CAD – UBS Canada's key export sectors - manufacturing and energy - are not enjoying the best of demand conditions, and given the heavy exposure to the US, any growth shocks arising from sequestration in the US would be strongly felt by the Canadian labor market. Canada's current account - although at manageable levels - is struggling to recover and this serves as an immediate deterrent to longer-term investors. As such, “it would probably take more time and data confirmation for such trends to materialize, and we do not expect them to serve as valid triggers for CAD downside on a tactical level.” notes Research Analyst Gareth Berry at UBS. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 06, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates

Forex Flash: USD strengthens against metrics – ANZ According to the ANZ Research Team, “Our broader view has been to anticipate, as the global economy repaired itself, that the US dollar would stay soft against a range of currencies, particularly those in Asia and the EUR; and for the AUD and NZD to remain at high levels despite stretched valuation metrics.” Against this view, the dollar has strengthened particularly strongly since early February, and against some currencies since early January. Following this, a consensus seems to have emerged that the dollar's strength has been driven by US recovery expectations, and that this strength is likely to persist. This is not the first time in recent years that a relative growth argument for dollar strength has been consensus. For us the key question is whether the dollar has rallied because recovery expectations are gathering momentum and the US is leading those, or have recovery expectations in fact, suffered a setback, contrary to our cyclical expectations. In other words, is there something wrong with our framework, or has our macro call just suffered a bit of a setback? OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 06, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates

Forex: EUR/USD dropping further after surprising US ADP The EUR/USD is entering new daily lows as the NY session opens and US factory orders are still to come. The pair is pressing down again, below 1.3019 (low printed on the release of US ADP employment data). US ADP employment has surprised investors by adding 198K jobs in February, instead of 170K, and revising January's figure from from 192K to 215K. US factory orders are expected to drop -2.2% in January, more than erasing the previous 1.8% gains. “With the ECB tomorrow though we are likely to see more consolidation today”, wrote TD Securities analysts Shaun Osborne and Greg Moore. “For EUR/USD, key intraday resistance comes in near 1.3075, and we continue to favor an extension lower toward the upper 1.28/low 1.29 area in the next couple weeks”, they added. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 06, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates

Forex: GBP/USD testing support at 1.5080 after US ADP The GBP/USD has fallen on the heels of a upbeat economic data in the United States Wednesday. A previous upside attempt was halted at 1.5104, causing the pair to decline at the onset of American trading in recent moments. At the time of writing, the cross has settled at 1.5073/76, down -0.35%. According to the ICN.com Analyst Team, “The GBP/USD dropped during today’s session before rebounding to 1.5100 levels. Trading below 1.5190 levels is negative; RSI is trading with a negative bias below 50 supporting our expectations.” In the United States, the ADP Employment Change (February) came in at 198K, against expectations of 170K, and compared with 192K previously. Later today at 15:00 GMT investors will learn of the Factory Orders figure, which will shine more light on the status of the US economy. The ICN.com analysts point to supports at 1.5080, followed by 1.5035, and the 1.5000 barrier. On the positive side, the GBP/USD will encounter resistive means at 1.0260, then 1.5130, 1.5190, and ultimately 1.5225. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 06, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates

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Forex Flash: Policy-related drivers continue to dictate currencies – UBS With the dust settling post-RBA, it is worth revisiting some of the non-policy related drivers behind the currency. As always, positioning comes to the fore. On a structural level, we have highlighted for some time that the amount of inflow into liquid 'super-AAAs' over the last 18 months have had the effect of insulating the currency from wider risk swings, both helping lowering the beta on the AUD and secularly compressing implied volatility. Although the demand was there, the currency actually underperformed all other currencies in G10 bar the JPY. Investors need no reminder of the economic and political volatility out of China last year, where hard landing fears were not alleviated until late in the year, and in hindsight, only briefly. As such, “a China risk premium was already being priced into the AUD. Hence, when the big 'AAA-unwind' in favor of the EUR actually happened, and despite unfavorable commentary from the RBA, compared to the NOK and CAD, AUD hasn't really done that poorly due to the perception that it was always more at risk.” notes Research Analyst Gareth Berry at UBS. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 05, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates

Fundamental Afternoon Wrap: Euro PMIs and Central Bank meets in focus This afternoon institutional report reflects market mood today, with focus falling on the key central bank meetings later in the week and the stablising European services PMIs today. There is a feeling that absent sudden Italian developments, EUR/USD may struggle to decline much further, while in the UK the shock of Manufacturing PMIs was offset by today's numbers. EUR Brown Brothers Harriman analysts note that Euro area service PMIs showed a bit of improvement from the 47.3 flash reading, rising to 47.9. However they add that the real take away and one not lost on the foreign exchange market which sold into the euro's bounce, was that the February reading was weaker than the 48.6 reading seen in January. ING economist Martin van Vliet notes that the sharp increase in retail sales raises hopes that the consumer sector will be less of a drag on the Eurozone economy in the first quarter of this year. Overall, he feels that the tentative signs of stabilisation in retail sales, coupled with the upward revision to the earlier “flash” Eurozone composite PMI (to 47.9 in February), reinforces his belief that the ECB will keep interest rates on hold on Thursday. Jane Foley of Rabobank feels that despite the downside risks, on the back of the QE headwinds undermining USD, she is reluctant to call lower lows on EUR/USD. However, the Italian situation looks like a wildcard that needs to be monitored. Nick Bennenbroek of Wells Fargo notes that the euro is up on firmer than expected data and with some indications surrounding the European Union finance ministers meeting that more flexibility surrounding Europe’s austerity plans may be possible. GBP Brown Brothers Harriman analysts note that after reporting weak manufacturing and construction PMIS, the UK reported a better than expected CIPS service PMI, the highest reading since last September. BNP Paribas economist Catherine Stephan notes that in February, activity accelerated again in services, with the good news partially offsetting the poor performance in the manufacturing sector. Overall the PMI composite Index remained in expansion territory. USD Marc Chandler of Brown Brothers Harriman notes reports from the YS Commerce Department that estimate hat the dollar value of US exports rose sharply last year to $2.2 trillion which means that US exports appear to have surpassed Chinese exports, which the Chinese government estimates at $2.05 trillion. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 05, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates

Troika to suggest loan extension options for Ireland and Portugal and resume aid talks with Cyprus At the press conference ending the two-day Eurogroup meeting on Tuesday EU Commissioner for Economic and Monetary affairs Olli Rehn assured that the the Troika would resume bailout negotiations with Cyprus as soon as possible, with an aim of reaching the final deal at the end of March. As far as the extension of bailout loan maturities for Ireland and Portugal is concerned, Rehn said that it had been agreed that the Troika should consider establishing a new debt repayment schedule for a part of the loans. The final decision would be announced in April at the next Eurogroup meeting in Dublin. The question of restricting bank bonuses, supported by all Eurozone officials except for UK Chancellor George Osborne, will be further examined from the side of technical details and put to vote in the nearest future. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 05, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates

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US markets in red as Chinese woes loom Equities in the US markets are trading in the defensive position at the beginning of the week, as the likeliness of Chinese measures to counteract the worrying bubble in the housing sector could hamper the recovery of the domestic demand. The greenback, gauged by the US Dollar Index, is trading flat above the 82.00 mark, as markets remain directionless so far. DownJones is down 0.33%, followed by the S&P500, 0.29% and the Nasdaq, 0.36%. Markets in Euroland closed in the mix territory on Monday, as China and the so-called US ‘sequester’ undermined investors’ confidence. The IBEX35 advanced 0.72%, seconded by the CAC40, 0.27% while the FTSE100 and the DAX retreated 0.52% and 0.21%, respectively. The single currency is clinging to the 1.3000 level and trading in a narrow range between 1.2980 y 1.3020, reflecting the lack of direction in the markets. In the commodities space the barrel of WTI is extending the recent bearishness, losing 1.17% at $89.63 while the ounce troy of the precious metal is posting meagre gains at $1572, or 0.02% OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 04, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates

Forex Flash: FLS fails to firefight monetary arson - Nomura Nomura Economist Phillip Rush notes that there is little evidence that Funding For Lending (FLS) is imparting much stimulus. He writes, “We do not believe it can do in the presence of strict regulatory pressure to deleverage. Nor is it tying sufficient funding to Bank rate for a cut to be worthwhile. Increasingly repressive policies are being brought up, but softer communication changes are likely to come first, in our view.” OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 04, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates

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Forex: EUR/USD closes just above 1.3000; 1.29 vital area One month and 745 pips later, the EUR/USD has been brought to earth from the February 1st high at 1.3710 to Friday March 1st bottom at 1.2965. However, the euro managed to recover some ground and following the US President Barack Obama speech on 'sequester', the pair has closed above the 1.3000 key level. Is time for bears now? Let see... The EUR/USD closed Friday at 1.3020, around 0.30% negative on the day. In the 1-day chart, MACD, CCI and Momentum indicators points bearish while Stochastic is bull. In a wider windows the picture changes as MACD, CCI and Momentum are bullish with a stochastic neutral in the 1-day timeframe. It seems there are signs of a changing trend as the EUR/USD has experienced 4 weeks of losses and the BPI is indicating that EUR is rising from 15.79 and the USD is above the 90 level. However, according to the FXstreet.com EUR/USD Forecast, the mid and long-term forecasts for the euro are 300 pips lower than last week. According to TD Securities FX analysts Shaun Osborne and Greg Moore, there is still hope for Euro bulls if the pair remains above the 1.28/29 area. "Four weeks of successive losses keeps the EUR on track to test the 1.28/1.29 area (40-week/200-day MA/neckline of the huge, multi-month inverse H&S neckline that drove our late 2012/early 2013 bullishness on the EUR)." "Holding this support zone (we can tolerate some temporary weakness below) is vital in sustaining a longer-term bull outlook," state both analysts. But what's going on in the fundamental area? Sequester is fueling the risk aversion and the USD is joining it due its safe haven status. Meanwhile, the Italian disaster is looming in the Euro sentiment. As UBS' analysts Geoffrey Yu and Manik Narain well said in a recent report, "it will be interesting to see how the ECB responds after the Italian election and a return in risk aversion. " Expectations will be the theme in the coming week as the RBA, BoC, ECB, BoE, and BoJ are expected to hold policy meetings. Beside Mario Draghi, nominated BoJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda will have his first speech and market will pay special attention on what he will say to support, or not, the JPY weakening. USD/JPY finished the week above the 93.50 level. On the North American side, President Barack Obama said that the U.S. "will get through this, will not be an ‘Apocalypse’”. Earlier in the session, House Speaker John Boehner affirmed that there is still time to reach an agreement during the incoming week. Meanwhile, both Republicans and Democrats continue to kick the can down to each others backyard. The Banking Week Ahead As noted before, RBA, BoC, ECB, BoE, and BoJ will publish their monetary policy decisions. Despite some market voices are asking for a rate cut in the ECB, major expectations are that Draghi and his team will maintain his refi rate unchanged. The point of salt will come with the president's press conference. US unemployment data and its Non Farm Payrolls, the European, Australian and Japanese Q4 GDP and the size of the BoE's APF will also take the market attention. Major events - ECB Interest Rate Decision (Mar 07 12:45 GMT) - BoE Interest Rate Decision (Mar 07 12:00 GMT) - BoJ Interest Rate Decision (Mar 07 02:00 GMT) - U.S. Unemployment Rate (Mar 08 13:30 GMT) - U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (Mar 08 13:30 GMT) OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 02, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates

Forex: GBP/USD consolidating below 1.5050 The sterling keeps the bearish mood below the 1.5050 level on Friday, dragged lower after softer-than-expected data from the UK manufacturing PMI print. “The UK authorities have a de facto weak pound policy and will be all the more committed to it now. The economy is flirting with a return to recession, monetary policy is out of juice, and GBP/USD is heading for an imminent break of 1.50. After that, a shift to a test of $1.40 will follow on a 6-month time horizon”, argued Kit Juckes, analyst at Societe Generale. GBP/USD is losing 0.92% at 1.5022 facing the next support at the psychological level at 1.5000 followed by 1.4949 (low Jul.12 2010) and then 1.4873 (low Jul.1 2010). On the upside, a breakout of 1.5173 (hourly high Mar.1) would expose 1.5223 (high Feb.28) and then 1.5235 (MA10d). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 01, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates

Forex: USD/CAD retreats after Canadian GDP The Canadian dollar strengthened and dragged USD/CAD back from highs after data showed Canadian GDP grew 0.6% in Q4 2012, in line with market expectations, while the previous reading was upwardly revised to 0.7% from 0.6%. USD/CAD pulled back from an 8-month high of 1.0341 scored right before the data, and slid toward 1.0300. At time of writing, USD/CAD is trading around 1.0305/10, where it is virtually unchanged since opening. In terms of technical levels, the pair could face immediate supports at 1.0300 and 1.0260 (100-hour SMA), while resistances are seen at 1.0341 (intraday high) and 1.0360 (Jun 28 high). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Mar 01, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates

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Forex Flash: EUR under siege as Italy continues to foment risk – Westpac According to the Westpac Strategy Team, “The EUR seems unlikely to recover much further with 1.32/1.3300 seen as an ideal zone to initiate shorts for a bigger sell-off down to the 1.27/1.2800 zone.” Moreover, discussions for a grand coalition in Italy will likely last weeks and may not yield much. Fresh elections may be called but that will only occur after election laws are re-written. Yet the Italian parliament does not convene until 15 March. The bottom line is that the odds a more market friendly Italian government is installed in the very near-term appear small and overall key event risks in coming sessions do not appear helpful to EUR. Draghi is sure to tone down the “positive contagion” commentary and given the stall in the Feb Eurozone PMI’s, he should emphasize that easy monetary conditions are here to stay for a while. Ultimately, “He is likely to reiterate that the ECB’s OMT remains in place and ready for use but is likely to emphasize a tough love approach - recipients must sign up to reform and austerity.” the team predicts. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Feb 28, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates

Forex: USD/JPY falls after US durable goods orders The dollar weakened further against the yen and slipped to fresh daily lows after data showed US durable goods orders dropped more than expected in January as defense spending fell the most in more than a decade and demand for aircraft plunged although outside those volatile categories, there was underlying strength in orders. USD/JPY lost nearly 30 pips on the data and printed a fresh daily low of 91.33. At time of writing, the cross is trading around 91.40, recording a 0.6% loss on the day. As for technical levels, next supports could be found at 91.33 (intraday low), 91.00 (psychological level) and 90.85 (Feb 25 low). On the upside, resistances are seen at 92.25 (intraday high), 92.80 (100-hour SMA) and 93.00 (psychological level). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Feb 27, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates

US: Durable Good Orders fell 5.2% in January The Commerce Department has informed that orders for US long-lasting goods contracted 5.2% during January, missing expectations at -4.4%, and down from +3.7% (revised) in December. If we strip the Transportation sector, orders rose 1.9%, above estimates at +0.2% and better than December’s +1.0% (revised). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Feb 27, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates

Forex Flash: USD to weaken on today, helping EUR/USD to consolidate - Commerzbank After last FOMC minutes making investors think the Fed is “hawk in a dove plumage”, Bernanke's speech yesterday “has caused market participants to rethink this view” and Fed's Chairman will speak again today in front of the House of Representatives’ committee. “Just like yesterday he will show his commitment to QE3 and underline that the Fed will support QE3 for as long as necessary and that at present the benefits of QE3 outweigh the risks – even though he discussed the risks in detail”, wrote analyst Antje Praefcke. “The statement in the minutes that “many” FOMC members showed concern about the side effects and risks of QE3 was omitted by Bernanke yesterday”, Praefcke continued, explaining that there was no indication yesterday of a possible end or changes to the scale of QE3 and he will avoid that again today. However, solid and better than expected US data (Richmond Fed Index, consumer confidence, home sales) made up for Bernanke’s dovish approach. Commerzbank analysts expect US Durable goods orders for January to disappoint today. “However this is due to one-off effects and the underlying trend still continues to point clearly upwards”, they explained, predicting USD weakness today, helping the euro to consolidate somewhat. “But in the end the effect is likely to be limited while the crisis bogey still puts pressure on the euro”, Praefcke concluded. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Feb 27, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates

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Forex: GBP/USD rejected from 1.5215 The recovery of the pound against the dollar stalled once again at the 1.5215 area, where the 100-hour SMA reinforces static resistance. GBP/USD then fell back below the 1.5200 mark and even hit a fresh daily low of 1.5127, weighed by BoE's Tucker saying "real fx rates need to be lower". However, GBP/USD found support and managed to recover some ground. The pair is currently trading around 1.5160, where it remains virtually unchanged since opening. "Cable tried moving up but is facing resistance near 1.5200-15 levels. The bigger trend remains bearish and a failure to rise past 1.5200-15 will be a signal that the short covering is losing steam and a fall towards 1.4850 can well be seen in the coming days", says the Kshitij Consultancy Services Team. "A rise above 1.52 can push it further towards 1.5250-300". OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Feb 26, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates

Forex Flash: Fed's Bernanke speech about QE as main focus TD Securities More important than US housing reports (house prices for December and new home sales for January) and Conference Boards consumer confidence index for February (where markets are looking for a bounce from the 14-month low of 58.6 up to 61.2), TD Securities analysts point to Fed Bernankes semi-annual testimony to the Senate Banking Committee at 15:00 GMT as the main focus of the day. This will be the first update since the Fed adopted open-ended QE, and there is little doubt that Congress will be interested in exactly how and when the Fed will end the program, wrote analyst Annette Beacher. Aside from Bernankes updated outlook on the economy (probably slightly more upbeat), the market will be looking for any further clarification on when QE will end and what specific triggers the Fed may use to gauge the end of the program, she added. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Feb 26, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates

Forex Flash: Fed's Bernanke speech about QE as main focus TD Securities More important than US housing reports (house prices for December and new home sales for January) and Conference Boards consumer confidence index for February (where markets are looking for a bounce from the 14-month low of 58.6 up to 61.2), TD Securities analysts point to Fed Bernankes semi-annual testimony to the Senate Banking Committee at 15:00 GMT as the main focus of the day. This will be the first update since the Fed adopted open-ended QE, and there is little doubt that Congress will be interested in exactly how and when the Fed will end the program, wrote analyst Annette Beacher. Aside from Bernankes updated outlook on the economy (probably slightly more upbeat), the market will be looking for any further clarification on when QE will end and what specific triggers the Fed may use to gauge the end of the program, she added. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Feb 26, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates