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[b]Date: 09th May 2025.[/b] [b]Markets Rally on Renewed Trade Optimism as Trump Softens Stance.[/b] US equities and the dollar climbed to their highest levels in a month, as investors grew increasingly hopeful ahead of a key round of trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing. Talks are scheduled to take place in Switzerland over the weekend, with both sides seeking to reduce tensions and roll back punitive tariffs, currently at 145% on Chinese imports and 125% on US goods in response. President Trump struck a more conciliatory tone, suggesting tariffs on China could soon be scaled back. ‘I think it’s going to be a substantive and friendly meeting,’ he said while unveiling a new trade deal with the UK. When asked about potential reductions, Trump said, ‘Right now you can’t go any higher. It’s at 145%, so we know it’s coming down.’ The shift in tone marks a turning point after a turbulent April, during which markets were rattled by growing recession fears and escalating trade rhetoric. Since Trump first hinted at easing duties late last month, investors have rotated back into US assets, fueling a strong rebound in risk sentiment. ‘You’re going to want to buy stocks now,’ Trump told reporters on Thursday, citing both the new UK deal and a recently enacted tax measure as reasons for investor optimism. Equities Push Higher as Risk Appetite Builds Wall Street posted a second straight day of gains: the Dow rose 0.62%, the S&P 500 added 0.58%, and the Nasdaq climbed 1.07%. In Europe, Germany’s DAX advanced 1.02%, nearing record highs, while the Euro Stoxx 600 rose 1.1%. Futures suggest more upside in US and European markets heading into the weekend. Asian shares, however, delivered a mixed performance as investors stayed cautious ahead of the trade meeting. Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 1.32%, Australia’s ASX 200 edged up 0.41%, while South Korea’s Kospi slipped 0.1% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.15%. Despite the cautious tone, US futures posted modest gains, and oil prices continued to trend higher. Fresh trade data from China added to the market narrative. April exports rose 8.1% year-on-year, beating expectations but down from March’s 12.4% pace. However, shipments to the US plunged over 20%, as the impact of steep US tariffs began to take hold. Dollar Rebounds Sharply as Euro Falters The US dollar index (DXY) surged above the 100 mark for the first time in nearly a month, gaining more than 1% as capital flowed back into dollar-denominated assets. The euro, which had previously benefited from safe-haven demand, dropped to 1.12—its lowest level since early April, after peaking above 1.15 in recent weeks. Oil Jumps While Gold Pulls Back Crude prices rallied to their highest levels in a month. WTI crude climbed over $60 per barrel, up 3.5% since Thursday’s open, and Brent crude broke through $63 per barrel. The gains were fueled by improving risk appetite and expectations of stronger global demand. Gold, on the other hand, retreated for a second day as investors moved away from safety plays. COMEX futures fell 2.5% on Thursday, while spot gold slid 3.6% across two sessions, touching $3,313 per ounce before rebounding modestly. By Friday, spot prices stood at $3,324.75, up 0.6% on the day and nearly 3% for the week. While the UK-US trade pact offered improved customs access for American exporters and some tariff relief for UK steel, autos, and aluminium, the deal was more limited in scope than initially promised. Analysts noted that without broader reforms or clearer economic direction, the agreement may do little to ease concerns over slowing global growth. Bitcoin Surges on Trade Hopes and Coinbase Deal Bitcoin (BTCUSD) surged past $103,000 on Thursday, marking its highest level since late January. The cryptocurrency rallied alongside equities after Trump signalled a more diplomatic approach to trade, highlighting interest from other nations to forge deals with the US. A second catalyst came from Coinbase, which announced a $2.9 billion acquisition of Deribit, a major crypto derivatives platform. The news bolstered sector sentiment and contributed to Bitcoin’s 5% intraday gain, with the digital asset peaking at $102,147 by late afternoon ET. The recovery follows a sharp decline to $75,000 in early April, triggered by Trump's aggressive tariff declaration on ‘Liberation Day.’ Since then, Bitcoin has rebounded on renewed optimism, with its performance echoing the strong correlation it shares with US tech stocks and broader risk assets. [b]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.[/b] [b]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/b] Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to register for FREE! [url=https://analysis.hfm.com/][b]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/b][/url] [b]Andria Pichidi HFMarkets[/b] [b]Disclaimer:[/b] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[b]Date: 08th May 2025.[/b] [b]Markets Rally as Fed Holds Rates, Trump Teases Major Trade Deal With UK.[/b] US stocks surged midweek as investors reacted to a flurry of market-moving developments—from Federal Reserve policy decisions and trade deal speculation to AI regulations and geopolitical tensions. Federal Reserve Holds Rates Amid Political Pressure Despite mounting pressure from former President Donald Trump to lower interest rates ahead of a potential economic slowdown, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) unanimously voted to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the 4.25% to 4.5% range. This decision follows a full percentage point cut made in late 2024. ‘Uncertainty’ remains the name of the game for the FOMC as well as the markets. Though the word was used only once in the statement, Chair Powell used it, or variations of it, many times in his presser, ultimately saying his gut tells him ‘uncertainty’ over the economy's path is extremely elevated. Powell warned of ongoing risks from global trade tensions and tariffs, stating, ‘If sustained, large increases in tariffs could lead to higher inflation, slower growth, and increased unemployment.’ He acknowledged that the Fed remains vigilant, especially as uncertainties around international trade persist. The major takeaway is that the Fed is firmly on the sidelines monitoring the many tariff-related unknowns regarding their ‘scale, scope, timing, and persistence’ and their impacts on the economy. The Fed is in no hurry and awaits clear evidence to dictate the appropriate policy response. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reaffirmed the central bank’s independence on Wednesday, dismissing political influence from the White House. Addressing reporters, Powell emphasised, ‘President Trump doesn’t affect our doing our job at all,’ and reiterated that he has never—and will never—request a meeting with any US president. Trump Sparks Market Rally With UK Trade Deal Tease Equity markets jumped late Wednesday after Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that the US had secured a ‘MAJOR TRADE DEAL WITH A BIG, AND HIGHLY RESPECTED, COUNTRY.’ Sources familiar with the matter indicated the United Kingdom is expected to be named as the trade partner during a scheduled White House press conference Thursday morning. US stock futures surged on the news: Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 0.6% S&P 500 futures gained 0.7% Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 1% Gold is down 0.7%, sliding to $3,336 — edging closer to the crucial 100-hour moving average at $3,330. Expectations for a broader US-UK economic agreement added to investor optimism, alongside plans for high-level trade talks between the US and China in Switzerland. However, Trump’s statement that tariffs on Chinese imports would remain in place ahead of the negotiations tempered some enthusiasm. Asian Markets and Geopolitical Concerns Asian stock markets followed the US momentum on Thursday: Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.2% Australia’s ASX 200 increased 0.2% South Korea’s Kospi added 0.3% Hong Kong’s Hang Seng surged 0.8% Shanghai Composite advanced 0.8% However, ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the escalating conflict between India and Pakistan, introduced fresh risks. Pakistan has vowed retaliation for missile strikes it says were carried out by India, resulting in over 30 civilian deaths in Pakistan-administered Kashmir and Punjab. The situation has drawn international concern over the potential for wider instability in the region. Nvidia, AMD Surge as AI Export Rules Get Revamped Tech stocks, particularly in the semiconductor sector, also benefited from a regulatory shift. Nvidia (NVDA) closed up 3% following reports that the Trump administration will repeal AI chip export restrictions imposed by the Biden administration. The US Commerce Department confirmed the policy reversal, describing the previous rules as ‘overly bureaucratic’ and vowing to implement a streamlined framework that ‘unleashes American innovation.’ Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) also climbed nearly 1.8% on the news, though both chipmakers saw their shares ease slightly in after-hours trading. The Walt Disney Co. led the earnings-driven rally, soaring 10.8% after beating profit forecasts, raising guidance, and reporting over one million new streaming subscribers. BoE Expected to Cut Today The BoE is widely expected to lower the Bank Rate by another 25 bp to 4.25% on May 8. U.K. inflation is still expected to pick up again before retreating, but lower oil prices and a stronger pound will likely prompt the BoE to lower inflation forecasts with the updated Monetary Policy Report, which will pave the way for lower rates. And with growth risks intensifying thanks to US tariff jitters and the impact of the autumn budget, the chances of back-to-back cuts are rising, especially as U.K. rates remain relatively high. Stagflation risks continue to linger, but BoE head Bailey warned last week that a trade war would hurt the U.K. economy, despite the fact that it is facing lower ‘reciprocal’ tariffs than others. Bailey stressed that ‘it is not just the relationship between the US and the UK, it is the relationship between the US, the U.K. and the rest of the world that matters, because the UK is such an open economy.’ ‘We have to take very seriously the risk to growth’, Bailey warned, adding that ‘fragmenting the world economy will be bad for growth.’ Outlook: Economic Growth Meets Policy Uncertainty Despite global uncertainties, the Fed noted that the US economy continues to grow at a ‘solid pace.’ However, Powell cautioned that persistent tariff threats and rising inflation could put the central bank in a precarious position,risking a scenario of stagflation, where economic stagnation coincides with rising prices. With trade negotiations looming, rate cuts paused, and geopolitical risks rising, investors will be closely monitoring headlines for clues on the next moves in markets and monetary policy. [b]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.[/b] [b]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/b] Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to register for FREE! [url=https://analysis.hfm.com/][b]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/b][/url] [b]Andria Pichidi HFMarkets[/b] [b]Disclaimer:[/b] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 06th May 2025. Wall Street Rally Ends | Fed Decision & Trade War Weigh. Wall Street’s Longest Rally Since 2004 Ends Amid Trade Uncertainty and Weak Tech Performance Wall Street’s nine-day winning streak—the longest since 2004—came to a halt as bullish momentum faded. Major US indices closed lower: the Nasdaq dropped 0.74%, the S&P 500 fell 0.64%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 0.24%. Despite easing concerns over tariffs, lingering uncertainty surrounding their long-term impact kept investors on the sidelines. A stronger-than-expected ISM services report, which included a sharp rise in prices paid, and optimistic remarks from Treasury Secretary Bessent, failed to lift sentiment. Apple led the market declines, while media and entertainment stocks—including Disney—fell after a 100% tariff was announced on imported films. Berkshire Hathaway also declined following Warren Buffett’s retirement announcement after six decades as CEO. Treasury Yields Climb as Rate-Cut Hopes Fade Treasury yields rose as upbeat economic data tempered expectations for rate cuts. The 2-year yield increased 1.2 basis points to 3.836%, the 3-year note ended 1 bp higher at 3.810%, the 10-year yield advanced 3.7 bps to 4.358%, and the 30-year yield climbed 4.2 bps to 4.830%. This marked the third straight session of yield increases. Despite a strong 3-year auction, bonds remained under pressure. US Dollar Index Slides Below 100; Greenback Faces Broad Weakness The US Dollar Index (DXY) slipped below the 100 mark, closing at 99.809 after touching a high of 100.030 and a low of 99.464. The dollar weakened against most G10 currencies and lost ground to several Asian counterparts as rate differentials failed to offer support. Nevertheless, stronger US economic data—including accelerated activity among US service providers—helped the dollar edge higher during the session, easing a rapid appreciation in Asian currencies spurred by optimism over potential trade agreements. Asia Forex Volatility Increases Amid Trade Hopes The greenback gained 0.2% after the ISM data release. The Taiwanese dollar dropped 0.1% after Monday's historic surge—the strongest since the 1980s. The yen also weakened slightly. Meanwhile, Taiwan’s currency saw its biggest inversion in over two decades as the spread between the spot rate and one-year NDFs hit 3,000 pips, signalling ongoing selling pressure on the US dollar. Global Market Reaction and Oil Rebound Equity index futures for the S&P 500 declined 0.4% after the index snapped its longest rally in nearly two decades. European and Asian markets mirrored the US retreat. Cash trading in Treasuries was halted during the Asian session due to a Japanese holiday. Oil prices rebounded slightly from four-year lows. US crude rose $0.74 to $57.87 per barrel, while Brent crude also gained $0.74 to settle at $60.97. However, WTI crude remained down 1.96% on the day, closing at $56.81 amid concerns about a global supply glut. OPEC+ announced it would increase output by 411,000 barrels per day starting June 1, contributing to a 4% drop in prices on Monday. Gold Surges on Chinese Demand; Equities Under Pressure Gold prices jumped 2.84%, reaching $3333.22 per ounce, driven by increased demand from China. Chinese markets rose after reopening from the Golden Week holiday. The Shanghai Composite added 0.7%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 0.4%, Taiwan’s Taiex edged up 0.2%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.2%. Tech Stocks Lead US Declines; Fed Decision in Focus On Wall Street, tech giants dragged the market lower. Apple fell 3.1%, Amazon dropped 1.9%, and Tesla lost 2.4%. Palantir sank more than 9% in after-hours trading following disappointing results, while Ford warned of a $1.5 billion profit hit due to tariffs, causing its stock to fall 2.5%. Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery lost 1.9% and 2% respectively after President Donald Trump announced a 100% tariff on foreign-made films. Meanwhile, shoemaker Skechers soared 24.3% on news it would be acquired for $9 billion by 3G Capital. Trade War Escalates as Tariff Policies Create Market Turmoil Tariff-related volatility continues to dominate market sentiment. Trump’s unpredictable trade measures—often announced or reversed overnight—have undermined the dollar’s traditional role as a safe haven and forced investors to reconsider US exposure. A recent 145% tariff on Chinese imports has triggered a steep decline in shipping activity and logistics. According to a Caixin survey, China's services sector activity fell to its lowest non-pandemic level, pushing Chinese firms’ overall optimism to its lowest since records began in April 2012, prompting further job cuts. Outlook: Federal Reserve Decision and Inflation Risks Loom Attention now turns to Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting. The Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates steady after cutting them three times in 2024. With inflation hovering just above the 2% target and economic uncertainty lingering, policymakers are likely to maintain a cautious stance. The US economy contracted by 0.3% in Q1—the first quarterly decline in three years—raising concerns about tariff driven slowdown. Inflation fears are resurfacing, compounding market anxieties as investors await clearer guidance from the Fed and potential developments on the trade front. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[b]Date: 30th April 2025.[/b] [b]JPY in Focus: BOJ Decision and Trade Tensions Set the Stage[/b] Markets in Japan reopen after a bank holiday and investors again turn their attention to the Japanese Yen. The Japanese Yen along with the Euro and Swiss Franc has been the best-performing currency in 2025 so far. However, tariffs and the global trade policy make further rate hikes uncertain ahead of tomorrow’s Bank of Japan press conference. Bank of Japan and the JPY The primary reason for the bullish performance of the Japanese Yen this year is the BOJ’s rate hikes and the currency's safe-haven nature. Previously economists' projections for the Bank Of Japan was for the regulator to increase interest rates to 1.00% in 2025. However, the uncertainties within the market surrounding the trade policy and a possible recession puts the hawkish path at risk. The Bank of Japan is scheduled to meet tomorrow during the Asian session. The regulator’s interest rates are likely to remain the same, but the guidance for the upcoming months will be key. The latest Reuters Tankan survey for April showed improved sentiment within the manufacturing sector. However, consumer confidence remains subdued, largely due to stalled trade negotiations with the US and continued uncertainty in bilateral relations, factors that complicate long-term economic assessments. Given these conditions, the Bank of Japan is expected to adopt a cautious, wait-and-see approach. However, it may also signal the possibility of further monetary tightening in the second half of the year. Inflation has remained above the 2.0% target for nearly three years, with recent data suggesting that the trend is set to persist. In March, the Core Consumer Price Index accelerated, driven by sustained increases in food prices. Meanwhile, the CPI excluding fresh food and energy rose to 2.9%, its highest level in a year, highlighting persistent underlying price pressures. The US Trade Policy Currently, there seems to be a clear correlation between the trade policy and the USDJPY, similar to the EURUSD. As tensions escalate, investors reduce their exposure to the US Dollar in favour of the Japanese Yen, Euro and Swiss Franc. However, whether the ‘trade conflict’ will indeed escalate or not cannot be certain. For the JPY to maintain its bullish path, an escalation in tensions or rate hikes potentially will be necessary. Before President Trump announced the tariffs on April 2nd, the Bank of Japan was planning at least 2 further 0.25% hikes. Investors will closely scrutinize the BoJ’s Governor’s comments regarding future hikes. On the other hand, the Federal Reserve is not likely to cut interest in May according to the Chicago Exchange. A rate cut in May can become a possibility if this week shows a sudden dip in the employment sector. According to the Chicago Exchange, there is a 60% chance of a 0.25% cut on May 7th and a 90% chance for July 30th if a cut is not done in May. USDJPY - Technical Analysis USDJPY 15-Minute Chart The USDJPY trades within range-bound trading conditions neither seeing a clear breakout below or above the key levels. The exchange rate also trades very close to the average price of the past 2-weeks. However, this is likely to change as the US releases further employment data today and Friday as well as tomorrow’s Bank of Japan rate decision and press conference. If the price of the USDJPY declines below the support level at 141.970 sell signals are likely to strengthen as long as the price does not obtain an oversold indication on oscillators. On the other hand, if the USDJPY rises above the resistance level at 142.752, buy signals can strengthen. Key Takeaway Levels: The Japanese Yen will remain strong in 2025, but trade tensions and recession risks cloud further rate hikes. Previously rate hikes were one of the key factors supporting the Japanese Yen. The Bank of Japan is likely to hold rates tomorrow, with guidance being the key market focus. Inflation in Japan remains above target, with core CPI hitting 2.9%—the highest in a year. USDJPY trades in a tight range; key breakout levels are 141.970 (support) and 142.752 (resistance). [b]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.[/b] [b]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/b] Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to register for FREE! [url=https://analysis.hfm.com/][b]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/b][/url] [b]Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets[/b] [b]Disclaimer:[/b] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[b]Date: 29th April 2025.[/b] [b]NASDAQ Climbs Higher as Markets Brace for Key Earnings and Jobs Data![/b] The NASDAQ rose to a 4-week high as investors get ready for a crucial week ahead. The NASDAQ has earned back 46% of the price lost during the stock market crash seen in March and April. However, what is needed for the correction to continue? This week can be the deciding factor. NASDAQ - Quarterly Earnings Report Over a period of 48 hours, the NASDAQ will see 5 significant companies release their earnings report for the first quarter of 2025. The NASDAQ’s exposure as an index is exactly 27% towards these companies making the 48-hour crucial for the index. These 5 companies include the following: Microsoft: Wednesday after market close - Up 7.61% over the past 5 days Meta: Wednesday after market close - 11.84% over the past 5 days Qualcomm: Wednesday after market close - 7.96% over the past 5 days Apple: Thursday after market close - 7.07% over the past 5 days Amazon: Thursday after market close - 10.45% over the past 5 days The price movement of the 5 stocks over the past week has been relatively positive, but this is also partially due to the improvements in investor sentiment. Therefore, it is not necessarily solely due to the upcoming earnings reports. Out of the 5 stocks, analysts expect only Microsoft and Meta to see higher earnings and revenue compared to the previous quarter. However, the key concern for investors is that the actual figures either exceed or at least match the projections. If the companies beat the expectations, investors are likely to witness the bullish momentum continue and potentially gain speed. However, if the companies fail to do so, the index can quickly correct itself, moving back down. Another factor which the market will be laser-focused on is the comments from the board of directors on current concerns such as a possible recession and the trade policy. If the comments provide a positive tone and a sense of hope, the risk appetite can improve and support stocks across the board. NASDAQ - Employment To Play A Key Role! As recession fears grow and economists raise the likelihood of a downturn to 30–50%, attention shifts to the employment sector. This week will be key for employment as the US will confirm the number of new job vacancies, the unemployment rate and new confirmed employment. On occasions, stronger employment data can pressure the stock market as it's likely to keep interest rates high. However, under the current circumstances, a positive release from all US news potential may support the NASDAQ. Analysts expect the Unemployment Rate and JOLTS Job Opening figures to be similar to the previous month. However, the NFP Employment Change may dip! In addition to the employment data and earnings reports, investors will also monitor and analyse the Advanced Quarterly GDP and Core PCE Price Index. Currently, analysts expect the Core PCE Price Index to fall from 2.8% to 2.6%. If the index indeed falls to this level, volatility may be limited with a slight bullish bias. However, if the figure falls below 2.6% the NASDAQ potentially can increase further. NASDAQ - Technical Analysis The NASDAQ is trading above the trendlines on a 2-hour timeframe and above the Volume-Weighted Average for the day. These two factors indicate a bullish bias and bullish signals are likely to strengthen if the price rises above $19,496.31 according to price action. However, if the price falls below $19,357.30, the NASDAQ’s outlook will quickly change. Traders should note that this week’s price movement will be dependent on the developments from earnings, trade policy and the employment sector. Key Takeaway Points: Microsoft, Meta, Qualcomm, Apple, and Amazon will report earnings within 48 hours, and with a combined 27% index weight, their results could significantly impact the market's direction. Recent stock gains suggest that investor sentiment is improving. However, sustained bullish momentum will depend on whether these companies meet or exceed earnings expectations and provide optimistic guidance. Investors will also closely watch US employment data, GDP figures, and the Core PCE Price Index. A drop in inflation below 2.6% could potentially provide additional support for the NASDAQ. Technically, the NASDAQ maintains a bullish outlook while trading above key trendlines, but a move below $19,357.30 could signal a shift toward a bearish trend. [b]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.[/b] [b]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/b] Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to register for FREE! [url=https://analysis.hfm.com/][b]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/b][/url] [b]Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets[/b] [b]Disclaimer:[/b] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[b]Date: 28th April 2025.[/b] [b]Can a Busy Week For the USD Revive The Dollar?[/b] The first week of May for the US Dollar is likely to be the most important within the whole month. During this week, the US will confirm its NFP employment data, job openings, PCE Inflation, US company earnings and the Gross Domestic Product. The US Dollar has been the worst performing currency in 2025, but can this week’s releases change its performance? Currency Market In April, the best performing currencies are the Swiss Franc, Euro and Japanese due to their safe haven nature and a known alternative to the Dollar. The worst-performing currencies have been both the US Dollar and Australian Dollar. However, the US Dollar had slightly improved during the previous week meaning traders need to be cautious as to if the USD may retrace slightly higher. AUDUSD The performance of the US Dollar is likely to continue to depend primarily on the US trade policy. According to experts, over the past week, investor sentiment has improved but for this to continue the news will need to provide a positive tone. Lastly, the Japanese Yen could see volatility in either direction as the Bank of Japan is due to announce its rate decision later this week. Analysts expect the rate to remain unchanged but Governor Ueda is likely to provide indications of future rate hikes. Australian Dollar and Australian Elections The main developments which will influence the dynamics of the Australian Dollar is the Consumer Price Index (inflation) on Wednesday, Retail Sales and the elections over the weekend. The Australian Dollar Index is trading 1.85% higher over the past month. However, the AUD is still underperforming compared to other currencies. The AUDUSD has struggled to cross above the 0.64069 resistance level over the past month. The Australian Dollar has been struggling over the past month as economists believe the inflation rate will continue to fall close to the 2.0% target. Current expectations are that the inflation rate will fall from 2.4% to 2.3%. Economists say the likelihood of an interest rate cut in May is diminishing but was previously the main expectation. The Australian Dollar has recovered from the sharp decline that had triggered urgent calls for action from the Reserve Bank. However, if the US Dollar is to increase in value traders may take into consideration two opinions. The first is to trade the AUDUSD as the Australian Dollar is the worst-performing currency or the USDCHF as the Swiss Franc is the best-performing currency and can more easily give up recent gains. US Dollar and Upcoming Releases The US Dollar was 1.65% after starting the previous week on a negative price gap. However, even with the upward price movement, the US Dollar Index remains relatively cheap and still trades at its lowest since July 2024. Gold also declines during Monday’s Asian Session which is another positive sign for the USD. The US will release the following data in the upcoming days: JOLTS Job Opening - Tomorrow ADP Non-Farm Employment Change - Wednesday US GDP - Wednesday Employment Cost Index - Wednesday Core PCE Price Index - Wednesday Weekly Unemployment Claims - Thursday ISM Manufacturing PMI - Thursday NFP Employment Change and Unemployment Rate - Friday A big factor this week will continue to be the US Trade Negotiations. Yesterday, US President Donald Trump announced that negotiations between Washington and Beijing had already begun. However, Chinese officials denied that any talks were underway, fueling traders' uncertainty and dampening appetite for riskier assets. Nonetheless, the tone has been positive as both Trump and China advise they can make a trade agreement. China has already advised some goods will see tariffs lowered as a show of good faith. Meanwhile, Trump signed an executive order to start a deep-sea mining initiative aimed at countering China’s dominance in certain commodities. The US plans to boost domestic production of nickel, copper, and rare earth elements. Currently, the Federal Reserve is reluctant to cut interest rates but this can quickly change if employment data deteriorates. If the data this week beats expectations, the Fed is likely to stick to this tone and the US Dollar can gain bullish momentum. However, if this data reads weaker than the projections, the confidence in the Dollar can deteriorate and the Fed may be pressured to cut interest rates further pressuring the currency. Key Takeaway Points: This week’s major US data releases could decide whether the US Dollar rebounds or continues to lag. Safe-haven currencies like the Swiss Franc and Yen remain stronger, but risks of losing momentum increase. The Australian Dollar faces pressure from slowing inflation, soft retail sales, and upcoming elections. Stronger US data and positive trade negotiations could fuel a Dollar recovery; weak data may trigger Fed rate cut fears. [b]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.[/b] [b]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/b] Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to register for FREE! [url=https://analysis.hfm.com/][b]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/b][/url] [b]Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets[/b] [b]Disclaimer:[/b] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 25th April 2025. Trade Tensions Hurt Confidence Across Europe Trading Leveraged products is Risky The latest European confidence indicators highlighted the growing impact of global trade tensions on investor sentiment, particularly within the Eurozone. According to recent surveys, investor confidence has been notably dented, with the services sector showing greater weakness compared to manufacturing. This may be due to U.S. efforts to front-load imports ahead of potential tariff hikes. Meanwhile, diverging fiscal policies between the UK and the Eurozone have further widened economic gaps. The UK faces limited fiscal flexibility and mounting pressure to stimulate domestic demand, complicating its response to external shocks. German ZEW Investor Confidence Plummets Germany's ZEW investor sentiment index plunged in April following the announcement of new U.S. tariffs. The index fell by a staggering 65.6 points to -14.0, reflecting growing pessimism about the economic outlook. While recent political shifts offered short-term relief to market sentiment, uncertainty remains elevated, suggesting this key forward-looking indicator may stay in negative territory. Eurozone PMI and Ifo Data Show Mixed Signals Surprisingly, the Eurozone PMI and Germany’s Ifo business climate report showed resilience. Although the composite PMI dropped to a four-month low of 50.1—indicating stagnation rather than contraction—the weakness was concentrated in the services sector. The services PMI fell to 49.7, ending a five-month expansion streak. Germany’s Ifo survey showed improvements in construction and business sentiment, driven by a rise in the current conditions index. The overall business climate index rose to 86.9 in April, up from 86.7 in March, defying expectations of a decline. Trade Boost May Be Temporary as Risks Persist Trade data from February revealed a 22.4% year-over-year jump in Eurozone exports to the U.S., with Ireland’s pharmaceutical-heavy exports surging by 200%. S&P Global noted signs of stockpiling and unplanned orders from U.S. clients trying to stay ahead of tariffs. However, analysts warn this boost may be short-lived. As tariffs bite and the euro strengthens, European exports risk becoming less competitive. Despite hopes that EU goods could benefit from U.S.-China trade disputes, long-term gains are uncertain. If U.S. firms start to run down inventories, demand may soften. Germany and EU Infrastructure Investment to Counter Trade Headwinds Germany’s decision to raise borrowing for infrastructure and defense, alongside EU-wide investment plans, aims to cushion the blow from external shocks. Sentiment in the German construction sector has already improved, according to the Ifo report. While large-scale spending will take time to materialize, early signs show progress in the defense sector. UK PMI Data Signals Growing Economic Challenges Across the Channel, the UK economy is facing multiple headwinds. Government finances are strained, and recent fiscal data missed expectations. Although the UK may enjoy lower tariffs post-Brexit, its open economy is more vulnerable to global slowdowns. Rising labor costs, due to higher National Insurance contributions and minimum wage hikes, have added pressure. The latest S&P Global UK Composite Output Index dropped sharply to 48.2 in April from 51.5, with the Services PMI falling to 48.9—a 27-month low. Manufacturing Output PMI also fell to 44.0, the weakest since mid-2021. S&P Global attributed this decline to weakened client confidence and the impact of U.S. tariffs. Business outlooks have dimmed, with optimism at its lowest since October 2022. Rising cost burdens have prompted employment cuts, and inflationary pressures persist, despite easing energy prices. UK Inflation and Rate Outlook: BoE Faces Tough Decisions The CBI industrial trends survey painted a similarly cautious picture. Although total orders slightly improved, export orders deteriorated. Selling price expectations also rose, reflecting cost pressures. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey emphasized risks to growth and warned about the dangers of global economic fragmentation. While markets are pricing in another BoE rate cut, rising wage-driven inflation may keep UK interest rates elevated relative to the Eurozone. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[b]Date: 24th April 2025.[/b] [b]The Dollar's Role in a Recession Is Real—but Not Solo![/b] Key Takeaways The US dollar appears overvalued based on historical metrics. Foreign investor exposure to US assets is at record levels. Slower US economic growth and rising policy risks may reduce demand for the dollar. The greenback’s reserve currency status remains secure, but depreciation pressures are building. Inflation, trade balance improvements, and financial stability are all tied to the dollar’s trajectory. Trade policy, more than the dollar itself, may determine the path forward for the US economy. Forecasting currency movements—especially the US dollar—is notoriously difficult. Compared to predicting GDP growth, inflation, or interest rates, estimating exchange rate trends poses even greater challenges. Yet, despite this complexity, there’s growing evidence that the dollar's recent 5% drop on a trade-weighted basis could be just the beginning. The Dollar’s Decline: A Signal or a Catalyst? According to the Federal Reserve, the real effective value of the US dollar remains significantly elevated—nearly two standard deviations above its long-term average since 1973. Historically, similar levels were observed only in the mid-1980s and early 2000s. Both periods were followed by sharp dollar corrections, falling by 25% to 30%. Could a deeper depreciation trigger broader financial consequences? Massive Foreign Exposure to US Assets Raises Red Flags Global investors have significantly increased their exposure to US assets. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that foreign investors now hold around $22 trillion in US-based assets—representing approximately one-third of their total portfolios. Half of this investment is in equities, many of which are unhedged against currency risk. Should these investors begin reducing their exposure to US markets, the dollar could experience intensified selling pressure. Even a pause in foreign inflows may weigh heavily. The United States runs a current account deficit of roughly $1.1 trillion per year, which must be financed through capital inflows. In reality, most of this financing has traditionally come from foreign purchases of US portfolio assets. If foreign demand for these assets falters, prices may fall, the dollar could weaken, or both could occur simultaneously. Slowing US Growth Could Dampen Dollar Strength If the US economy were expected to continue outperforming other global economies, dollar strength might be more sustainable. However, this no longer appears likely. Economic growth projections have been downgraded across major economies, and the US has been hit hardest. For example, Goldman Sachs has revised its 2024-2025 US GDP forecast from 1% to just 0.5%. With rising policy uncertainty, weaker corporate earnings, and doubts about the Federal Reserve’s independence, international investors may become more cautious about increasing their US holdings. Dollar Depreciation Isn’t a Death Blow—But It’s Not Irrelevant Despite these concerns, a weaker dollar does not necessarily imply the end of its global dominance. It’s important to separate dollar depreciation from a loss of its global reserve status. Historically, the greenback has faced major swings before without losing its dominance as the world’s primary reserve currency. Its role as a global medium of exchange and store of value remains deeply embedded in the international financial system. Implications of a Weaker Dollar Consumer Prices May Rise A falling dollar could amplify the inflationary effects of recent tariffs. Core inflation, measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, may rise from 2.75% to 3.5%, with dollar weakness potentially adding another 0.25 percentage points. Ultimately, American consumers are likely to bear the brunt of higher import costs. Exports Become More Competitive A weaker dollar reduces the price of US exports (in foreign currency terms) while making imports more expensive. Over time, this shift could help reduce the US trade deficit—aligning with longstanding policy goals. Financial Conditions Could Tighten While a depreciating dollar can support easier financial conditions, the context matters. If the drop is driven by reduced demand for US assets, including Treasuries, the benefits could be offset by rising borrowing costs or declining market confidence. The True Recession Risk Lies in Trade Policy, Not the Dollar Alone While dollar movements matter, they’re unlikely to cause a recession on their own. The bigger threat is aggressive trade policy. Additional tariffs, especially if introduced after the current 90-day pause, or an escalation in the US-China trade conflict, could tip the balance. These decisions could undermine investor confidence and business activity—regardless of where the dollar stands. The dollar is part of the recession puzzle—but not the whole picture. Its overvaluation, dependency on foreign investment, and declining support from global investors could compound economic vulnerabilities. Still, it's policy—especially on tariffs—that could ultimately determine whether the US slides into recession. [b]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.[/b] [b]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/b] Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to register for FREE! [url=https://analysis.hfm.com/][b]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/b][/url] [b]Andria Pichidi HFMarkets[/b] [b]Disclaimer:[/b] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 23rd April 2025. Trump Eases Market Fears: Stocks Surge as President Declares No Intention to Fire Fed Chair Powell. Trading Leveraged products is Risky US stock futures surged on Tuesday after President Donald Trump clarified he has ‘no intention’ of firing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell — a statement that helped soothe Wall Street concerns over central bank independence and policy stability. The President was answering a wide range of questions from the Oval Office. He also said he expects to make a deal with China, but if there is not, it is not the end of the end. China tariffs will come down ‘substantially’, he added. ETFs tracking US equity futures are climbing and extending Tuesday's bounce in after-hours trading on these comments. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 1.2%, while S&P 500 futures advanced 1.5%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite led the rally with a 1.8% spike. Investors took comfort in Trump’s softened tone toward Powell, especially after recent criticisms and threats of dismissal that had roiled markets. Speaking from the Oval Office, Trump said he ‘never did’ intend to remove Powell but reiterated his preference for lower interest rates. ‘I would like to see him be a little more active in terms of his idea to lower interest rates,’ Trump added. The president’s remarks came after he previously labelled Powell a ‘major loser’ and said his removal ‘couldn’t come fast enough.’ This shift in rhetoric signalled a truce, at least for now, between the White House and the central bank — calming investors rattled by fears of political interference in monetary policy. Asian Markets Climb on Powell News and Trade Optimism Global markets followed Wall Street’s lead. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 1.7%, Australia’s ASX 200 climbed 1.6%, South Korea’s Kospi added 1.2%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 1.7%. The Shanghai Composite was little changed, down just 0.1%. The broader market mood was also lifted by new optimism around global trade. Trump indicated that tariffs on China could come down ‘substantially,’ while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called current tariff levels ‘unsustainable.’ Vice President JD Vance noted encouraging progress in US-India trade talks. Tesla Soars After Musk Commits More Time to Company Tesla (TSLA) shares jumped 5% in after-hours trading Tuesday despite disappointing first-quarter earnings. The electric vehicle maker missed Wall Street expectations, but investors were buoyed by CEO Elon Musk’s announcement that he will dedicate more time to Tesla. ‘Starting early next month, in May, my time allocation to DOGE [Department of Government Efficiency] will drop significantly,’ Musk said during the post-earnings call, adding that he’ll spend only one to two days per week on DOGE and the rest focusing on Tesla. The company also reaffirmed plans to launch new vehicles in the first half of 2025. Oil Prices Rebound on Fed Comments and Inventory Data Crude oil extended gains following Trump’s assurance about Powell’s job security and a bullish industry report on US stockpiles. West Texas Intermediate climbed above $64 a barrel, reversing Monday’s losses triggered by political and economic uncertainty. But Bitcoin appears to be charting its own path Unlike stocks and bonds, the world’s largest cryptocurrency has climbed more than 8% during the same period, reaffirming its role — at least for now — as a hedge in investor portfolios. According to Fundstrat’s Sean Farrell, Bitcoin is doing “all the right things” to show it may be entering a new phase of market behavior, increasingly decoupled from traditional risk assets. Zooming out to the post-election period, Bitcoin has maintained its momentum even as stock market gains have reversed. While the S&P 500 has slipped below 5,300, Bitcoin is trading above $91,000 — significantly higher than its pre-election value of around $68,000. Of course, it's too early to call this a lasting trend. But in a climate where U.S.-centric investments are losing favor, Bitcoin’s recent resilience is turning heads across the financial world. Bank of Japan Seen Holding Rates Amid Global Trade Turbulence In Asia, a Reuters survey of economists revealed that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to maintain its key interest rate through June, with a modest rate hike possibly coming in the third quarter. Only 52% of respondents now anticipate a rate hike between July and September, down from 70% last month. Economists cited the uncertain global outlook, driven in part by Trump’s unpredictable trade policies, as a major reason for the BOJ’s cautious approach. While Trump recently imposed a 25% tariff on car and truck imports and a 24% tariff on Japanese goods — later reduced to 10% for 90 days — the impact has so far been disruptive but not severe enough to derail Japan’s monetary policy path. Despite expected cuts to Japan’s economic growth forecast, 87% of surveyed economists said the country is unlikely to enter a recession. Many believe that a stronger yen and lower import costs could offset weaker exports, stabilizing the economy. ‘Exports will decline, but the strong yen will reduce import costs and boost corporate earnings,’ said Atsushi Takeda, chief economist at Itochu Research Institute. ‘And the suppression of consumer price increases is expected to support personal consumption, thereby an economic downturn is likely to be avoided.’ Markets were on edge after days of tension between the White House and the Fed. But Trump’s assurance that Jerome Powell’s position is safe — coupled with positive trade signals — helped spark a broad-based market recovery, from equities to commodities. As earnings season and economic data roll in, investors will be watching closely for signs that this rally has staying power. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 18th April 2025. Market Wrap-Up: Stocks Mixed as UnitedHealth and Nvidia Drag, While Netflix Surges. U.S. equity markets closed Thursday’s shortened session on a mixed note ahead of the Good Friday holiday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slumped 1.33%, pressured by a 22% plunge in UnitedHealth Group after it cut its earnings forecast. The Nasdaq Composite also dipped 0.13%, led lower by a 2.9% drop in Nvidia, which continues to struggle amid chip export restrictions to China. In contrast, the S&P 500 managed a modest gain of 0.13%, supported by strength in energy stocks and a surprise earnings beat from Netflix. The streaming giant jumped in after-hours trading, driven by stronger-than-expected Q1 earnings, higher subscription prices, and robust ad revenue growth. On the technical front, Netflix’s RSI has rebounded off the 50 level—historically a reliable signal for renewed bullish momentum. Resistance now sits at $1,065 and $1,300, while support is seen near $821 and $697. Meanwhile, Treasury yields rose, erasing most of Wednesday’s gains. The 10-year yield climbed 4.8 basis points to 4.325%, and the 2-year yield rose to 3.785%, reflecting investor uncertainty and fading hopes for near-term Fed rate cuts. Political Pressure and Tariff Concerns Stir Volatility Markets also digested sharp political commentary that rattled confidence. Former President Donald Trump made headlines after attacking Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, stating that his ‘termination cannot come soon enough.’ While Powell remains firmly in position, the remarks reignited fears over central bank independence—a cornerstone of monetary policy stability. Additionally, tariff tensions resurfaced as the former president hinted at a more protectionist trade stance. With global supply chains still vulnerable, investors grew wary of renewed U.S.-China trade friction—especially in the semiconductor and tech sectors, where Nvidia and TSMC remain key players. Asia Rallies in Holiday-Thinned Trading as TSMC Meets Expectations Asian equity markets mostly posted gains on Friday despite Wall Street’s choppy session, as investors reacted to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) earnings and stabilized sentiment in the region. Japan’s Nikkei 225 added 0.6% to close at 34,583.29. South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.3% to 2,478.39. Taiwan’s Taiex gained 0.8% after TSMC met forecasts and offered cautious optimism despite ongoing chip export risks. China’s Shanghai Composite slipped 0.3% to 3,272.09 amid continued weakness in domestic demand. Trading volumes remained thin across Asia ahead of the Easter holiday, with several regional exchanges closed. Global Policy Moves: ECB Cuts Rates, Mixed U.S. Data Keeps Traders Guessing In Europe, the European Central Bank (ECB) delivered a widely expected interest rate cut, yet investor reaction was subdued. The CAC 40 dropped 0.6% and Germany’s DAX declined 0.5%, reflecting concern that rate reductions may be arriving too late to stimulate faltering growth. Back in the U.S., economic data sent mixed signals. Weekly jobless claims fell more than anticipated, highlighting ongoing labour market strength. However, the Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing index contracted unexpectedly, showing continued weakness in factory output. Combined, these updates reinforced the view that the Federal Reserve may remain on hold longer than investors had hoped, especially amid sticky inflation and political pushback. Dollar Holds Ground as Bond Yields Rise and Gold Retreats from Record Highs In the currency markets, the US Dollar Index remained steady near 99.44, posting a third consecutive close below the psychological 100 level. The greenback traded in a narrow range between 99.231 and 99.746. Meanwhile, the dollar eased slightly to 132.42 yen and the euro ticked up to $1.1373, maintaining its recent strength. Gold prices, which touched record highs earlier in the week, slipped 0.49% to close at $3,326.85 per ounce after hitting $3,343.12 on Wednesday. Meanwhile, oil prices rebounded sharply: WTI crude surged 3.5% to $64.68 a barrel. Brent crude rose to $67.96. The rally in energy was supported by bargain-hunting and concerns over global supply risks. Markets remained closed Friday in observance of Good Friday, pausing further moves in commodities and bonds. Final Takeaway: Markets Enter Holiday Pause with Unresolved Risks As the markets head into a long weekend, investor sentiment remains cautious. Strong earnings from companies like Netflix offer moments of optimism, but persistent concerns around tariff policy, Federal Reserve independence, and geopolitical tensions continue to weigh heavily on risk appetite. With bond yields creeping higher and volatility likely to return next week, traders should stay nimble and watch for cues from earnings reports, Fed speakers, and any developments on the trade or political front. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[b]Date: 17th April 2025.[/b] [b]Economic Data Lifts Crude Oil — Will Resistance Stall the Rally?[/b] Crude Oil prices rise for a second consecutive day due to supply chain concerns and positive Chinese data. The price of Crude Oil rose 1.58% on Wednesday, and a further 1.15% during this morning’s Asian session. However, this upward price movement has taken the asset to the key resistance level at $62.70. Is the price about to witness a decline due to the current resistance level? Why are Oil Prices Increasing? One of the main reasons why Crude Oil prices have been increasing in value is the positive economic data from China. China and the US hold the biggest influence over Crude Oil demand as the two countries are the largest importers. China's first quarter’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 5.4%, surpassing the projected 5.2%. However, analysts attribute this growth to a surge in demand for Chinese goods ahead of the anticipated tariff war and predict a potential slowdown by year-end. Nonetheless, the oil market reacted positively to the news that the Chinese economy saw better figures than previously expected. Traders will be watching closely to see if deteriorating economic data in the coming months, driven by trade policy, will put downward pressure on prices. Crude Oil The US also made public positive economic data from Retail Sales. The Retail Sales figure rose by 1.4%, the highest in more than 12 months. The Core Retail Sales also rose by 0.5%, higher than the projected figure and the previous month. Furthermore, the US, UK and Japan have confirmed they will begin negotiating a trade agreement with the US. The tone is positive and can have a positive impact on the price of Oil. However, the key factor for the Oil market is whether the US will come to an agreement with China. In terms of supply, Iraq and Kazakhstan have announced additional output cuts to keep supply controlled. In addition to this, the US is imposing additional sanctions on Iranian oil which is further pressuring the supply side. Restrictions on supply chains are known to push prices higher. The Federal Reserve and How the Economy Will Influence Crude Oil? Even though economic data surprised the market and provided a positive tone for many assets, the Federal Reserve was less positive. The Chairman, Mr Jerome Powell spoke towards the end of the US session discussing inflation, employment and interest rates. According to Mr Powell, the Tariffs imposed by the US administration were higher than previous expectations. According to the Fed, the trade policy is likely to trigger higher inflation, but it is unclear whether the higher inflation will be temporary or long-term. The Consumer and Producer Price Index over the next 3-6 months will be key for the Federal Reserve. The key statement that captured investors' attention was the chairman's remarks regarding the Federal Reserve's primary focus. Powell said, ‘without price stability, we cannot achieve long periods of strong labor market conditions’. This comment was a clear indication that the Federal Reserve will concentrate on controlling inflation and will allow the employment sector to be temporarily hit. The hawkish tone from the Fed can be seen in the Fedwatch Tool. The expectations of a pause have risen 14% over the past week, mainly due to the speech yesterday. However, the market still believes the Federal Reserve will cut in June 2025. Crude Oil - Technical Analysis The main concern for Crude Oil is the resistance level at $62.70, the domino effect of a Federal Reserve reluctant to cut rates and if the so-called ‘trade war’ escalates. As the price rose to the resistance level this morning, the asset quickly declined. Nonetheless, on a 2-hour chart, the asset remains above the trend line and above the neutral area of the RSI. However, the price is below the Volume-weighted average price. Therefore, we have conflicting signals. Crude Oil However, if the price continues to decline and establish itself below the 200-bar simple moving average in the 3-minute timeframe, the sell signals are likely to strengthen. Key Takeaway Points: Oil prices rose for a second day, driven by strong Chinese GDP, OPEC+ supply cuts, and renewed sanctions on Iran. Positive economic data from China and the US boosted demand outlook, though analysts warn China's growth may slow due to upcoming tariffs. The Fed maintained a hawkish stance, prioritizing inflation control, and raising uncertainty about rate cuts despite strong economic figures. Trade talks with the US, UK, and Japan lifted market sentiment, but concerns remain over a potential escalation in the US-China trade dispute. [b]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.[/b] [b]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/b] Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to register for FREE! [url=https://analysis.hfm.com/][b]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/b][/url] [b]Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets[/b] [b]Disclaimer:[/b] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[b]Date: 9th April 2025.[/b] [b]Global Markets Rattled by Tariffs and Bond Sell-Off as Volatility Surges.[/b] Markets around the globe were hit hard on Wednesday, as sweeping US tariffs took effect and fears of a global economic slowdown intensified. From bond markets to equities, investors were left scrambling amid heightened uncertainty and growing recession risks. Volatility levels surged as investors responded to rising yields, falling oil prices, and a weakening yuan. Government bond yields surged, treasuries were hit hard, equities tumbled, and oil hit fresh multi-year lows as investors scrambled to assess the impact of sweeping trade measures. Tariff Uncertainty Sparks Global Sell-Off Markets were on edge as the White House confirmed a 104% tax targeting Chinese imports, effective at midnight. While the US administration indicated openness to negotiations with over 70 nations, China has yet to engage. Instead, Beijing vowed to ‘fight to the end’ and warned it has ample tools to offset any external shocks. In a bold move, China allowed the offshore yuan to weaken to a record low of 7.4153 per dollar, signalling its willingness to absorb external shocks. Goldman Sachs warned that China might retaliate by selling US assets, including Treasuries, potentially exacerbating the sell-off. Bond Market Under Siege as Yields Surge Investors dumped long-duration US government bonds in droves, driving yields to multi-year highs. The 30-year Treasury yield briefly soared above 5% the highest level since 1998, while the 10-year hit 4.51% before easing back to 4.42%. Meanwhile, the 2-year yield fell on haven demand and bets for future rate cuts, steepening the curve sharply. Bond yields move inversely to prices. Stock markets came under renewed pressure. The curve between 2s and 10s spiked by 14 basis points to 55 bps. This aggressive repricing reflected deepening fears of inflation, slower growth, and rising uncertainty over the Fed's policy path. The sharp rise in long-dated yields caused a steepening in the yield curve across Europe, with bond prices falling as investors priced in higher inflation and slower global growth. RBNZ Cuts Rates, Signals Further Easing New Zealand’s central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.50%, marking the fifth consecutive easing. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cited mounting global trade risks and downside pressures on both growth and inflation. ‘The recently announced increases in global trade barriers weaken the outlook for economic activity,’ said the RBNZ. ‘These developments create downside risks... The Committee has scope to lower the OCR further as appropriate.’Markets now expect rates to fall below the 3% floor previously signalled by the central bank. Global Repercussions: Stocks and Currencies Hit In Europe, German bonds opened lower, and a steepening yield curve emerged as longer-term yields rose sharply. Futures tracking the Stoxx Europe 600 slumped 2.9%, mirroring weakness in US and Asian equity markets. Japanese stocks fell sharply, with the Topix dropping 3.6%, while the yen settled near ¥145 per dollar. Analysts described earlier gains as a ‘head fake,’ noting that ‘fast money’ had resumed bearish bets amid worsening trade tensions. Chinese equities managed to rebound, driven by strength in technology and chip stocks. The CSI 300 index swung from a 1.7% decline to close up 0.3%, led by SMIC (+6%) and Foxconn Industrial Internet. Wall Street’s major indices plunged before partially trimming losses late in the session. The S&P 500 closed down 1.57%, the Nasdaq tumbled 2.15%, and the Dow slipped 0.84%. Earlier gains of over 4% were quickly reversed as investors grew wary of systemic risks. This marked the fourth consecutive session with a trading range exceeding 5%, a rare occurrence seen only during periods of extreme stress like March 2020, October 1987, and the 2008 financial crisis. The VIX volatility index jumped 10.6% to 52.01, reflecting the high level of investor anxiety. Oil Crashes to Pandemic Lows, Gold Recovers Oil markets extended their dramatic decline as traders braced for weaker global demand. Brent crude dropped 4.1% to $60.26—a four-year low—while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell to $56.30. Gold, meanwhile, briefly dipped but managed to rebound above $3040 per ounce. USDIndex Dips, Currency Volatility Rises The US Dollar Index (DXY) swung throughout the session, at 102.25—down from a session high of 103.441. Currency markets were jittery amid safe-haven flows and shifting interest rate expectations. [b]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.[/b] [b]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/b] Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to register for FREE! [url=https://analysis.hfm.com/][b]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/b][/url] [b]Andria Pichidi HFMarkets[/b] [b]Disclaimer:[/b] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date: 7th April 2025. Asian Markets Plunge as US-China Trade War Escalates; Wall Street Futures Signal Further Turmoil. Global financial markets extended last week’s massive sell-off as tensions between the US and its major trading partners deepened, rattling investors and prompting sharp declines across equities, commodities, and currencies. The fallout from President Trump’s sweeping new tariff measures continued to spread, raising fears of a full-blown trade war and economic recession. Asian stock markets plunged on Monday, extending a global market rout fueled by rising tensions between the US and China. The latest wave of aggressive tariffs and retaliatory measures has unnerved investors worldwide, triggering sharp sell-offs across the Asia-Pacific region. Asian equities led the global rout on Monday, with dramatic losses seen across the region. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index tumbled more than 8% shortly after the open, while the broader Topix fell over 6.5%, recovering only slightly from steeper losses. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite sank 6.7%, and the blue-chip CSI300 dropped 7.5% as markets reopened following a public holiday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index opened more than 9% lower, reflecting deep concerns about escalating trade tensions. South Korea’s Kospi dropped 4.8%, triggering a circuit breaker designed to curb panic selling. Taiwan’s Taiex index collapsed by nearly 10%, with major tech exporters like TSMC and Foxconn hitting circuit breaker limits after each fell close to 10%. Meanwhile, Australia’s ASX 200 shed as much as 6.3%, and New Zealand’s NZX 50 lost over 3.5%. Despite the escalation, Beijing has adopted a measured tone. Chinese officials urged investors not to panic and assured markets that the country has the tools to mitigate economic shocks. At the same time, they left the door open for renewed trade talks, though no specific timeline has been set. US Stock Futures Plunge Ahead of Monday Open US stock futures pointed to another brutal day on Wall Street. Futures tied to the S&P 500 dropped over 3%, Nasdaq futures sank 4%, and Dow Jones futures lost 2.5%—equivalent to nearly 1,000 points. The Nasdaq Composite officially entered a bear market on Friday, down more than 20% from its recent highs, while the S&P 500 is nearing bear territory. The Dow closed last week in correction. Oil prices followed suit, with WTI crude dropping over 4% to $59.49 per barrel—its lowest since April 2021. Wall Street closed last week in disarray, erasing more than $5 trillion in value amid fears of an all-out trade war. The Nasdaq Composite officially entered a bear market on Friday, sinking more than 20% from its recent peak. The S&P 500 is approaching bear territory, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has slipped firmly into correction territory. German Banks Hit Hard Amid Escalating Trade Tensions German banking stocks were among the worst hit in Europe. Shares of Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank plunged between 9.5% and 10.3% during early Frankfurt trading, compounding Friday’s steep losses. Fears over a global trade war and looming recession are severely impacting the financial sector, particularly export-driven economies like Germany. Eurozone Growth at Risk Eurozone officials are bracing for economic fallout, with Greek central bank governor Yannis Stournaras warning that Trump’s tariff policy could reduce eurozone GDP by up to 1%. The EU is preparing retaliatory tariffs on $28 billion worth of American goods—ranging from steel and aluminium to consumer products like dental floss and luxury jewellery. Starting Wednesday, the US is expected to impose 25% tariffs on key EU exports, with Brussels ready to respond with its own 20% levies on nearly all remaining American imports. UK Faces £22 Billion Economic Blow In the UK, fresh research from KPMG revealed that the British economy could shrink by £21.6 billion by 2027 due to US-imposed tariffs. The analysis points to a 0.8% dip in economic output over the next two years, undermining Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ growth agenda. The report also warned of additional fiscal pressure that may lead to future tax increases and public spending cuts. Wall Street Braces for Recession Goldman Sachs revised its US recession probability to 45% within the next year, citing tighter financial conditions and rising policy uncertainty. This marks a sharp jump from the 35% risk estimated just last month—and more than double January’s 20% projection. J.P. Morgan issued a bleaker outlook, now forecasting a 60% chance of recession both in the US and globally. Global Leaders Respond as Trade Tensions Deepen The dramatic market sell-off was triggered by China’s sweeping retaliation to a new round of US tariffs, which included a 34% levy on all American imports. Beijing’s state-run People’s Daily released a defiant statement, asserting that China has the tools and resilience to withstand economic pressure from Washington. ‘We’ve built up experience after years of trade conflict and are prepared with a full arsenal of countermeasures,’ it stated. Around the world, policymakers are responding to the growing threat of a trade-led economic slowdown. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced plans to appeal directly to Washington and push for tariff relief, following the US administration’s decision to impose a blanket 24% tariff on Japanese imports. He aims to visit the US soon to present Japan’s case as a fair trade partner. In Taiwan, President Lai Ching-te said his administration would work closely with Washington to remove trade barriers and increase purchases of American goods in an effort to reduce the bilateral trade deficit. The island's defence ministry has also submitted a new list of US military procurements to highlight its strategic partnership. Economists and strategists are warning of deeper economic consequences. Ronald Temple, chief market strategist at Lazard, said the scale and speed of these tariffs could result in far more severe damage than previously anticipated. ‘This isn’t just a bilateral conflict anymore — more countries are likely to respond in the coming weeks,’ he noted. Analysts at Barclays cautioned that smaller Asian economies, such as Singapore and South Korea, may face challenges in negotiating with Washington and are already adjusting their economic growth forecasts downward in response to the unfolding trade crisis. Oil Prices Sink on Demand Concerns Crude oil continued its sharp slide on Monday, driven by recession fears and weakened global demand. Brent fell 3.9% to $63.04 a barrel, while WTI plunged over 4% to $59.49—both benchmarks marking weekly losses exceeding 10%. Analysts say inflationary pressures and slowing economic activity may drag demand down, even though energy imports were excluded from the latest round of tariffs. Vandana Hari of Vanda Insights noted, ‘The market is struggling to find a bottom. Until there’s a clear signal from Trump that calms recession fears, crude prices will remain under pressure.’ OPEC+ Adds Further Pressure with Output Hike Bearish sentiment intensified after OPEC+ announced it would boost production by 411,000 barrels per day in May, far surpassing the expected 135,000 bpd. The alliance called on overproducing nations to submit compensation plans by April 15. Analysts fear this surprise move could undo years of supply discipline and weigh further on already fragile oil markets. Global political risks also flared over the weekend. Iran rejected US proposals for direct nuclear negotiations and warned of potential military action. Meanwhile, Russia claimed fresh territorial gains in Ukraine’s Sumy region and ramped up attacks on surrounding areas—further darkening the outlook for markets. [b]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.[/b] [b]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/b] Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to register for FREE! [url=https://analysis.hfm.com/][b]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/b][/url] [b]Andria Pichidi HFMarkets[/b] [b]Disclaimer:[/b] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[b]Date: 4th April 2025.[/b] [b]USDJPY Falls to 25-Week Low as Safe Havens Surge and Markets Eye NFP Data.[/b] Safe haven currencies and the traditional alternative to the US Dollar continue to increase in value while the Dollar declines. Investors traditionally opt to invest in the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc at times of uncertainty and when they wish to avoid the Dollar. The Japanese Yen continues to be the best-performing currency of the week and of the day. Will this continue to be the case after today’s US employment figures? USDJPY - NFP Data And Trade Negotiations The USDJPY is currently trading at a 25-week low and is witnessing one of its strongest declines this week. The exchange rate is no longer obtaining indications from the RSI that the price is oversold. The current bullish swing is obtaining indications of divergence as the price fails to form a higher high. Therefore, short-term momentum is in favour of the US Dollar, but there are still signs the Japanese Yen can regain momentum quickly. USDJPY 1-Hour Chart The price movement of the exchange rate in both the short and long term will depend on 3 factors. Today’s US employment data, next week’s inflation rate and most importantly the progress of negotiations between the US and trade partners. If today’s Unemployment Rate increases above 4.1%, the reading will be the highest seen so far in 2025. Currently, the market expects the Unemployment Rate to remain at 4.1% and the Non-Farm Payroll Change to add 137,000 jobs. The average NFP reading this year so far has been 194,000. If data does not meet expectations, US investors may continue to increase exposure away from the Dollar and to other safe-haven assets. Previously investors were expecting only 2 rate cuts this year from the Federal Reserve, however, most investors now expect up to 4. If today’s employment data deteriorates, economists advise the Federal Reserve may opt to cut interest rates sooner. Therefore, it is important to note that today’s NFP will influence the USDJPY to a large extent. Whereas in the longer-term, trade negotiations will steal the spotlight. If trade partners are able to negotiate the US Dollar can correct back upwards. Whereas, if other countries retaliate and do not negotiate the US Dollar will remain weak. USDJPY - The Yen and the Bank of Japan The Japanese Yen is the best-performing currency in 2025 increasing by 6.70% so far. Risk indicators such as the VIX and High-Low Indexes continue to worsen which is positive for the JPY as a safe haven currency. Yesterday Japan released March business activity data that came in weaker than expected: the Services PMI dropped from 53.7 to 50.0, while the Composite PMI fell from 52.0 to 48.9. The data is the lowest in two years. These figures could hinder further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. However, most economists still expect the Bank Of Japan to hike at least once more. It's also important to note, that even if the BOJ opts for a prolonged pause, a cut is not likely. Additionally, a 24% tariff was imposed on Japanese exports to the US yesterday. Prime Minister Mr Ishiba expressed disappointment over Japan's failure to secure a tariff exemption and pledged support measures to help domestic industries manage the impact. Key Takeaway Points: US Dollar Weakens, Safe Havens Rise: The Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc continue to gain as investors shift away from the US Dollar. USDJPY Under Pressure: USDJPY trades at a 25-week low, with short-term momentum favouring the Dollar but long-term trends pointing to potential Yen strength. NFP and Unemployment Crucial: Today’s Non-Farm Payrolls and unemployment figures will heavily influence short-term USDJPY. On the other hand, trade negotiations will dictate longer-term trends. Japan Faces Mixed Signals: Despite weak PMI data and new US tariffs, the Japanese Yen remains strong. Economists expect at least one more rate hike from the Bank of Japan, but no cuts are in sight. [b]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.[/b] [b]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/b] Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to register for FREE! [url=https://analysis.hfm.com/][b]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/b][/url] [b]Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets[/b] [b]Disclaimer:[/b] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[b]Date: 3rd April 2025.[/b] [b]Gold Prices Pull Back After Record High as Traders Eye Trump’s Tariffs.[/b] Key Takeaways: Gold prices retreated after hitting a record high of $3,167.57 per ounce due to profit-taking. President Trump announced a 10% baseline tariff on all US imports, escalating trade tensions. Gold remains exempt from reciprocal tariffs, reinforcing its safe-haven appeal. Investors await US non-farm payroll data for further market direction. Fed rate cut bets and weaker US Treasury yields underpin gold’s bullish outlook. Gold Prices Retreat from Record Highs Amid Profit-Taking Gold prices saw a pullback on Thursday as traders opted to take profits following a historic surge. Spot gold declined 0.4% to $3,122.10 per ounce as of 0710 GMT, retreating from its fresh all-time high of $3,167.57. Meanwhile, US gold futures slipped 0.7% to $3,145.00 per ounce, reflecting broader market uncertainty over economic and geopolitical developments. The recent rally was largely fueled by concerns over escalating trade tensions after President Donald Trump unveiled sweeping new import tariffs. The 10% baseline tariff on all goods entering the US further deepened the global trade conflict, intensifying investor demand for safe-haven assets like gold. However, as traders locked in gains from the surge, prices saw a modest retracement. Trump’s Tariffs and Their Market Implications On Wednesday, Trump introduced a sweeping tariff policy imposing a 10% baseline duty on all imports, with significantly higher tariffs on select nations. While this move was aimed at bolstering domestic manufacturing, it sent shockwaves across global markets, fueling inflation concerns and heightening trade war fears. Gold’s Role Amid Trade War Escalations Despite the widespread tariff measures, the White House clarified that reciprocal tariffs do not apply to gold, energy, and ‘certain minerals that are not available in the US’. This exemption suggests that central banks and institutional investors may continue favouring gold as a hedge against economic instability. One of the key factors supporting gold is the slowdown that these tariffs could cause in the US economy, which raises the likelihood of future Federal Reserve rate cuts. Gold is currently in a pure momentum trade. Market participants are on the sidelines and until we see a significant shakeout, this momentum could persist. Impact on the US Dollar and Bond Yields Gold prices typically move inversely to the US dollar, and the latest developments have pushed the dollar to its weakest level since October 2024. Market participants are increasingly pricing in the possibility of a Fed rate cut, as the tariffs could weigh on economic growth. Additionally, US Treasury yields have plummeted, reflecting growing recession fears. Lower bond yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, making it a more attractive investment. Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch Gold’s recent rally has pushed it into overbought territory, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 70. This indicates a potential short-term pullback before the uptrend resumes. The immediate support level lies at $3,115, aligning with the Asian session low. A further decline could bring gold towards the $3,100 psychological level, which has previously acted as a strong support zone. Below this, the $3,076–$3,057 region represents a critical weekly support range where buyers may re-enter the market. In the event of a more significant correction, $3,000 stands as a major psychological floor. On the upside, gold faces immediate resistance at $3,149. A break above this level could signal renewed bullish momentum, potentially leading to a retest of the record high at $3,167. If bullish momentum persists, the next target is the $3,200 psychological barrier, which could pave the way for further gains. Despite the recent pullback, the broader trend remains bullish, with dips likely to be viewed as buying opportunities. Looking Ahead: Non-Farm Payrolls and Fed Policy Traders are closely monitoring Friday’s US non-farm payrolls (NFP) report, which could provide critical insights into the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves. A weaker-than-expected jobs report may strengthen expectations for an interest rate cut, further boosting gold prices. Other key economic data releases, such as jobless claims and the ISM Services PMI, may also impact market sentiment in the short term. However, with rising geopolitical uncertainties, trade tensions, and a weakening US dollar, gold’s safe-haven appeal remains strong. Conclusion: While short-term profit-taking may trigger minor corrections, gold’s long-term outlook remains bullish. As global trade tensions mount and the Federal Reserve leans toward a more accommodative stance, gold could see further gains in the months ahead. [b]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.[/b] [b]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/b] Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click [url=https://www.hfm.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html][b]HERE[/b][/url] to register for FREE! [url=https://analysis.hfm.com/][b]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/b][/url] [b]Andria Pichidi HFMarkets[/b] [b]Disclaimer:[/b] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.