USDJPY holds at monthly highs: too many risks in play
The USDJPY pair has climbed to a five-week peak as the US dollar benefits from safe-haven demand. Find more details in our analysis for 23 June 2025.
USDJPY forecast: key trading points
The USDJPY pair reached a five-week high amid strong market demand for safe-haven assets
Domestic signals from Japan appear solid
USDJPY forecast for 23 June 2025: 146.78
Fundamental analysis
The USDJPY rate rose to 146.70. Strong demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset followed a sharp escalation in the Middle East conflict. The United States struck three Iranian nuclear facilities, joining Israel in the confrontation with Tehran.
Domestic Japanese data provided some positive signs, with the manufacturing sector returning to growth in June for the first time since May 2024. The services sector also expanded for the third consecutive month, indicating broad economic resilience.
Last week, the Bank of Japan kept the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% per annum. The central bank commented that firms continued to pass rising wages onto prices, keeping core inflation high. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reaffirmed a data-driven policy approach and left the door open for further rate hikes if inflationary pressure intensifies.
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