US 500 forecast: index hits a new all-time high
US 500 approached a resistance level and may enter a downward correction before resuming its upward movement. The forecast for US 500 today remains positive.
US 500 forecast: key trading points
Recent data: US Leading Economic Index (LEI) for June declined by 0.3%
Market impact: This is a negative signal for equities, as the LEI consists of 10 components reflecting future economic activity
Fundamental analysis
The US Leading Economic Index (LEI) dropped by -0.3% in June, compared to expectations of -0.2% and a flat reading the previous month. The decline in the LEI serves as a warning of a potential slowdown in economic activity over the next 6–12 months. While the drop isn’t critical, it signals a weakening growth momentum in the US economy. This could limit risk appetite in the stock market and strengthen expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts.
The decline in the LEI, against already subdued expectations, supports a more cautious approach. In the short term, investors may rotate from cyclical into defensive sectors. If signs of slowing growth persist, this could increase the likelihood of more accommodative monetary policy, potentially supporting the tech sector.
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