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  1. #61
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    Daily Outlook 12-11-2014
    EUR/USD
    The EUR rose 0.40% against the USD and closed at 1.2474. In the US, the NFIB small business optimism index rose to a level of 96.10 in October, compared to a level of 95.30 registered in the previous month. Meanwhile, the nation’s Redbook index on a yearly basis recorded a rise of 3.80% in the week ended 07 November, following a rise of 3.90% recorded in the prior week. The pair is expected to find support at 1.2407, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2348. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2513, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2560. Trading trends in the Euro today are expected to be determined by the Euro-zone’s industrial production data, set for release in a few hours.
    GBP/USD
    The GBP rose 0.47% against the USD and closed at 1.5920. The pair is expected to find support at 1.5848, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.5786. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.5960, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.6010. Looking ahead, investors await the UK’s ILO unemployment rate, scheduled in a few hours. Meanwhile, the BoE’s quarterly inflation report will attract considerable market attention, scheduled later today.
    USD/JPY
    The USD strengthened 0.91% against the JPY and closed at 115.89.The pair is expected to find support at 114.98, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 114.15. Earlier today, the BoJ Board Member Ryuzo Miyao stated that the central bank could start discussing about winding up its ultra-loose monetary policy in the second half of fiscal 2015, as the recent stimulus expansion decision had increased the probability of the BoJ meeting its 2% inflation target. Overnight data indicated that, Japan’s tertiary industry index rebounded 1.0% on a monthly basis in September, following a drop of 0.1% recorded in the previous month. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 116.37, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 116.94. Going forward, investors look forward to Japan’s annual machine orders data for further cues, scheduled overnight.
    USD/CHF
    The USD declined 0.36% against the CHF and closed at 0.9646. The pair is expected to find support at 0.9618, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9583. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9695, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9737.

  2. #62
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    Weekly Outlook 17-11-2014
    EUR USD
    EUR/USD’s consolidation from 1.2357 continued last week. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Upside of recovery should be limited by 1.2613 minor resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 1.2357 will target 61.8% projection of 1.3700 to 1.2500 from 1.2886 at 1.2144. However, break of 1.2357 will indicate short term bottoming with bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. In such case, strong rebound should be seen to 1.2886 resistance.
    In the long term picture, EUR/USD turned into a long term consolidation pattern since reaching 1.6039 in 2008. Such consolidation is still in progress. And break of 1.2042 will likely pave the way to 61.8% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6039 at 1.1209. Before that, EUR/USD would continue to engage in sideway trading between 1.1875 and 1.5143 in medium term.
    GBP USD
    GBP/USD’s decline from 1.7190 extended to as low as 1.5592 last week and took out 61.8% retracement of 1.4813 to 1.7190 at 1.5721. Initial bias remains on the downside this week. Further fall should be seen to 100% projection of 1.7190 to 1.6051 from 1.6523 at 1.5384 next. On the upside, above 1.5789 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations before staging another decline.
    In the longer term picture, we’re sticking on to the view that price actions from 1.3503 are the fourth wave of the five wave sequence from 2.1161. That means, firstly, 1.3503 shouldn’t be the end point of the downtrend yet and a new low is expected. However, secondly, as the next fall could be the fifth wave, the breach of 1.3503 could be shallow and brief from long term point of view and we’ll then see a more sustainable rebound.
    USD JPY
    USD/JPY’s up trend continued last week and reached as high as 116.82. Further rally is expected this week to 161.8% projection of 101.08 to 110.08 from 105.19 at 119.75 next. On the downside, break of 113.85 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of retreat.
    In the long term picture, the strong impulsive look of the rally from 75.56 suggests that USD/JPY is now in a long term up trend. Based on current momentum, such rally should at least take out 61.8% retracement of 147.68 to 75.56 at 120.13 and have a test on 124.13 resistance.
    USD CHF
    USD/CHF’s consolidation from 0.9741 extended last week. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. As long as 0.9559 minor support intact, further rally is still expected. Above 0.9741 will extend the whole rise from 0.8698 to 0.9838/9971 key resistance zone. Nonetheless, break of 0.9559 will argue that a short term top is in place at 0.9741, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. In such case, deeper pull back would be seen to 0.9359 support and below.
    In the longer term picture, we’d maintain that price actions from 0.9971 are corrective in nature. That is, the up trend from 0.7065 should resume after finishing the correction. And, note that break of 0.9971 will also have 55 months EMA firmly taken out and would be a strong indication of completion of the down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). In that case, USD/CHF should at least have a take of 1.1288 cluster resistance (38.2 % retracement of 1.8305 to 0.7065 at 1.1358).
    http://www.commexfx.com/weekly-outlook-17-11-2014/

  3. #63
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    Good morning and welcome, you’re watching the CommexFX daily outlook for Thursday, December 11, 2014.

    EUR/USD
    The EUR rose 0.53% against the USD and closed at 1.2446. Yesterday, the ECB Executive Board member, Benoit Coeure urged governments of the Euro-zone member nations to introduce structural reforms in order to promote growth and overcome the period of low inflation in the Euro area. In the US, the budget deficit fell to $56.82 billion in November, while markets expected the nation’s budget deficit to fall to $65.00 billion. The pair is expected to find support at 1.2381, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2306. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2513, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2571. Trading trends in the Euro today are expected to be determined by Germany’s crucial CPI data, scheduled in a few hours. Meanwhile, investors would closely monitor the US retail sales and weekly initial jobless claims data, scheduled later today.

    GBP/USD
    GBP rose 0.27% against the USD and closed at 1.5717, after Britain’s total trade deficit dropped more than anticipated to £2.02 billion in October. Separately, the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee Member, Ian McCafferty opined that the central bank should start increasing its benchmark interest rate sooner rather than later and keep in mind that the hike should be “limited” and “gradual”. Yesterday, the British Chambers of Commerce projected the UK economy to grow 3% this year, as compared to its earlier projection of 3.2%; however the growth would be at its fastest pace in seven years. Earlier today, the RICS house price balance in the UK dropped to a reading of 13.0 in November, compared to market expectations of a drop to a level of 15.0. In the previous month, the house price balance had recorded a reading of 20.0 The pair is expected to find support at 1.5655, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.5595. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.5767, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.5818. Amid no economic releases in the UK today, market sentiment would be governed by global macroeconomic news.

    USD/JPY
    The USD weakened 1.41% against the JPY and closed at 117.94. Overnight data indicated that Japan’s machine orders retreated more than expected 6.4% on a monthly basis in October, against market expectations of 1.7%. Overnight data indicated that Japan’s machine orders retreated more than expected 6.4% on a monthly basis in October, against market expectations of 1.7% decline and following an advance of 2.9% registered in September. Additionally, the nation’s tertiary industry index eased 0.2% on a MoM basis in October, in line with market expectations and after registering a rise of 1.3% in the preceding month.
    The pair is expected to find support at 117.13, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 116.21. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 119.28, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 120.51.

    AUD/USD
    The AUD strengthened 0.23% against the USD to close at 0.8319. Early morning data indicated that Australia’s unemployment rate climbed to 6.3% in November, at par with market estimates and after advancing 6.2% in the previous month. Meanwhile, number of employed people in the nation climbed more than expected by 42.7 K in November, against market expectations to add 15.0 K jobs and following a revised increase of 13.7 K registered in October. In other economic news, Australia’s consumer inflation expectation eased to 3.4% in December, after registering a level of 4.1% in the previous month. The pair is expected to find support at 0.8281, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.8231. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.8380, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.8428.

    XAU/USD
    Gold prices traded lower by 0.28% against the USD at 1227.70 per ounce, reversing its previous session gains. The pair is expected to find support at 1224.03, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1217.76. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1237.73, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1245.16.

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    http://www.commexfx.com/daily-outlook-11-12-2014/

  4. #64
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    Weekly Outlook 26-01-2015

    EUR USD
    The broadly weaker euro dropped to fresh 11-year lows against the dollar on Friday one day after the European Central Bank unveiled a large scale asset purchase plan, aimed at boosting slowing growth and inflation in the euro zone.EUR/USD fell to 1.1118, the lowest since early September 2003 before pulling back to 1.1203 in late trade, still off 1.39% for the day. The euro ended the week down more than 3% against the dollar and has lost almost 7.5% so far this year.
    GBP USD
    GBP/USD’s down trend resumed last. week by breaking 1.5033 and reached as low as 1.4950. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for next key support level at 1.4813. On the upside, break of 1.5268 is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.
    AUD USD
    The Australian dollar tumbled more than 1% against its U.S. counterpart on Friday to hit the lowest level in more than five years, as ongoing concerns over the health of the global economy boosted demand for safe haven assets. AUD/USD fell to 0.7882 on Friday, a level not seen since July 2009, before subsequently consolidating at 0.7908 by close of trade on Friday, down 1.43% for the day and 3.88% lower for the week.The pair is likely to find support at 0.7811, the low from July 14, 2009, and resistance at 0.8135, the high from January 22.
    USD JPY
    The dollar slid lower against the safe-haven yen on Friday as weakness in U.S. equities underpinned demand for the Japanese currency, while the broadly weaker euro fell to 16-month lows against the yen.USD/JPY was down 0.61% to 117.78 in late trade, not far from Wednesday’s lows of 117.17.U.S. stocks fell following soft corporate earnings, which sparked concerns over the potential impact of the stronger dollar.
    GOLD
    Gold edged lower on Friday, as a broadly stronger U.S. dollar prompted investors to book profits from a recent rally which took prices to the highest level in more than five months.On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for February delivery dipped $8.10, or 0.62%, to settle at $1,292.60 a troy ounce by close of trade on Friday.

    Monday, January 26
    In Germany, the Ifo research group is to publish its report on business climate.
    Tuesday, January 27
    The U.S. is to release data on durable goods orders, as well as private sector reports on consumer confidence and new home sales.
    Wednesday, January 28
    In the euro zone, the Gfk Institute is to report on German consumer climate.
    The Federal Reserve is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision.
    Thursday, January 29
    In the euro zone, Germany is to release preliminary data on consumer inflation and a report on the change in the number of people unemployed.
    Later Thursday, the U.S. is to publish the weekly report on initial jobless claims as well as private sector data on pending home sales.
    Friday, January 30
    The euro zone is to release preliminary data on inflation as well as a report on the unemployment rate. Germany is to report on retail sales, while Spain is to release preliminary data on GDP growth and inflation.
    The U.S. is to round up the week with preliminary data on fourth quarter growth as well as reports on business activity in the Chicago region and revised data on consumer sentiment.

    http://www.commexfx.com/weekly-outlook-26-01-2015/

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