MikhailLF Posted May 24, 2021 Report Share Posted May 24, 2021 WTI Crude Oil: wave analysis The price may fall. On the daily chart, a downward correction of the higher level developed as the wave B, and the upward wave C forms, within which the first wave 1 of (1) of C develops. Now, the third wave of the lower level iii of 1 has formed, and a local correction is developing as the wave iv of 1, within which the wave (b) of iv has ended, and the wave © of iv is developing. If the assumption is correct, the price will fall to the levels of 57.06–54.69. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 66.82. MojoRisin 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted May 25, 2021 Author Report Share Posted May 25, 2021 Morning Market Review EUR/USD EUR is showing moderate gains against USD, developing the "bullish" momentum that formed the day before, when EUR managed to recover in a thin market. USD remains under pressure against the backdrop of inaction by the US Fed and actively growing inflation in the country. The regulator has repeatedly explained the rapid rise in prices only by temporary phenomena, but the market is beginning to doubt this. Macroeconomic statistics from the US published last Friday supported USD position, but investors are already confident in the recovery of the national economy, so the data did not have any long-term effect. Today, market participants expect the publication of statistics from Germany, which will help assess the prospects for the recovery of the largest economy in Europe. GBP/USD GBP is strengthening against USD during today's Asian session, trying to recover from the decline at the end of last week and the timid start of trading on Monday. Market activity remains subdued, while investors expect new drivers to emerge. Macroeconomic statistics from the US released last Friday provided only short-term support to USD, while traders are somewhat disappointed by the vague prospects of the US Fed's monetary policy, which prefers to take a wait-and-see attitude. Today investors will be focused on statistics on the US house price index from S&P/Case-Shiller for March, as well as the April dynamics of new home sales. In addition, a speech by the representative of the Bank of England Silvana Tenreiro is expected. AUD/USD AUD is showing ambiguous dynamics against USD during today's Asian session, testing 0.7760 for a breakout. The instrument's positions are strengthening against the backdrop of corrective sentiment for USD, as well as due to the stable positive dynamics in the commodity markets, including the oil market. The minutes of the US Fed meeting released last week underscored the wait-and-see position of the American regulator, which does not seek to curtail the measures to stimulate the economy. According to the Fed Governor Jerome Powell, the national economy will need several more months to reach a plateau, where it would be appropriate to discuss the reduction of support programs. This week, investors expect the publication of American statistics on the dynamics of personal income and spending, which will help assess the current inflationary processes within the economy. USD/JPY USD is trading with ambiguous dynamics against JPY in today's Asian session, consolidating near 108.70. Yesterday's trading was marked by a slight decrease in the rate of USD; however, in general, the market sentiment remained practically unchanged. Investors ignore the positive macroeconomic statistics from the US and are focused on the future policy of the US Fed, which refuses to recognize rising inflation as a threat to the national economic recovery. The market also reacted poorly to the speech of the head of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda on Monday. The head of the Japanese regulator touched upon the global recovery of the world economy after the coronavirus crisis, warning that the stabilization process would be heterogeneous and could lead to increased economic inequality. XAU/USD Gold prices began to decline in trading this morning session, retreating from the highs since the beginning of the year, updated last week. The "bearish" trend is facilitated by technical factors, while the fundamental picture does not change much. Monday trading was characterized by flat dynamics; however, gold received support from the weakening positions of USD and a further decrease in the yield of US Treasury bonds. Additional support for the instrument is still provided by the extremely soft position of the US Fed, which does not consider the possibility of tightening monetary policy in the next few months. MojoRisin 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted May 26, 2021 Author Report Share Posted May 26, 2021 Mastercard Inc.: wave analysis The price may grow. On the daily chart, the fifth wave of the higher level (5) develops, within which the wave 3 of (5) forms. Now, the third wave of the lower level iii of 3 is developing, within which the wave (ii) of iii has ended, and the formation of the wave (iii) of iii is beginning. If the assumption is correct, the price will grow to the levels of 450.00–500.00. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 313.00. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted May 27, 2021 Author Report Share Posted May 27, 2021 XAU/USD: gold updated local annual highs Current trend Gold prices are showing ambiguous dynamics during the Asian session, consolidating at 1900.00. The day before, the instrument made another attempt to grow, and renewed local highs since the beginning of the year, having received support from the weak positions of USD and a decrease in the yield of US Treasury bonds. However, XAU/USD failed to consolidate at the new levels, and by the close of the daytime session, the pair had lost all the previously gained advantage. Investors closed part of their long positions on the instrument before the publication of updated data on the dynamics of US GDP for Q1 2021 and statistics on the dynamics of orders for durable goods. It is assumed that strong macroeconomic indicators may put additional pressure on the US Fed in the issue of curtailing support measures for the national economy. Support and resistance Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show stable growth. The price range is expanding, freeing a path to new local highs since the beginning of the year for the "bulls". MACD indicator is growing preserving a weak buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic has been showing fluctuating dynamics near its highs for a long time, reflecting strongly overbought instrument in the ultra-short term. The appearance of correctional decline is possible in the near future. New positions can be opened only after receiving additional signals from technical indicators. Resistance levels: 1900.00, 1920.82, 1935.00, 1952.53. Support levels: 1875.09, 1863.34, 1850.00, 1830.00. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Siyan jheel Posted May 30, 2021 Report Share Posted May 30, 2021 The latest reviews and forecasts for all market instruments and economic news. The materials are developed by professional analysts and are not of a direct recommendatory nature. Register on the LiteForex website and subscribe for analysis. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted May 31, 2021 Author Report Share Posted May 31, 2021 EUR/USD: wave analysis The pair may fall. On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level 1 of (3) developed, and a downward correction forms as the second wave 2 of (3). Now, the wave a of 2 has formed, and an upward correction of the lower level has developed as the wave b of 2, within which the wave © of b has formed. If the assumption is correct, the pair will fall to the levels of 1.1700–1.1601. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.2350. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted June 1, 2021 Author Report Share Posted June 1, 2021 PayPal Holdings Inc.: wave analysis The price may grow. On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level (3) develops, within which the wave 3 of (3) formed, and a downward correction developed as the wave 4 of (3). Now, the wave 5 of (3) is developing, within which the wave iv of 5 of the lower level has formed, and the development of the wave v of 5 has started. If the assumption is correct, the price will grow to the levels of 309.59–330.00. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 234.89. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted June 2, 2021 Author Report Share Posted June 2, 2021 GBP/USD: pound retreating from record highs Current trend The British pound shows ambiguous dynamics against the US dollar during the Asian session on June 2, consolidating near the level of 1.4150. Yesterday, investors slightly corrected their long positions on the instrument, which was due to the strengthening of the USD positions against the background of the publication of positive US macroeconomic statistics. Thus, the Markit Manufacturing PMI for May rose from 61.5 to 62.1 points, which was better than the market's neutral forecasts. ISM Manufacturing PMI strengthened from 60.7 to 61.2 points, while analysts did not expect any changes in this case either. In turn, UK Manufacturing PMI for May fell for the first time in a long time, decreasing from 66.1 to 65.6 points. On Wednesday, British investors await the publication of a block of statistics on consumer lending for April. Experts' forecasts are very optimistic and suggest that consumers continue to increase their activity as the epidemiological situation in the country improves. Support and resistance On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands are growing slightly. The price range narrows, reflecting the emergence of ambiguous dynamics in the short term. MACD falls, maintaining a fairly strong sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic reversed at the level of 80 and maintains a strong downward trend, signaling in favor of the development of "bearish" dynamics in the ultra-short term. Resistance levels: 1.4200, 1.4247, 1.4300. Support levels: 1.4135, 1.4100, 1.4050, 1.4000. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted June 3, 2021 Author Report Share Posted June 3, 2021 American Express Co.: wave analysis The price may grow. On the daily chart, the fifth wave of the higher level (5) develops, within which the wave 3 of (5) forms. Now, the fifth wave of the lower level v of 3 is developing. If the assumption is correct, the price will grow to the levels of 180.00–190.00. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 150.80. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted June 4, 2021 Author Report Share Posted June 4, 2021 USD/CAD: the instrument shows an upward trend Current trend Today, during the Asian session, the USD/CAD pair is showing an upward trend, developing a strong "bullish" momentum, formed yesterday, when the encouraging May ADP report on US private sector employment came out to the market. The statistics reflected an increase of 978K jobs, which was significantly better than market expectations of 650K. The data for the last month were revised downward from the previous 742K to 654K. On Friday, traders expect the publication of the final report on the US labor market for May, as well as a speech by the head of the US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell. It is worth noting that the official will speak before the publication of the Ministry of Labor, and therefore one should not expect a quick response from the regulator. Canada will also show its report on the labor market today but analysts' expectations here are much more modest. It is assumed that the unemployment rate for May will rise from 8.1% to 8.2%, while the change in the number of employees will remain in the red zone at -20K. Support and resistance On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are moving flat. The price range widens slightly from above, hindering a more confident uptrend in the short term. The MACD indicator is growing, maintaining a strong buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic demonstrates similar dynamics but that the indicator line is approaching its highs rather quickly. Resistance levels: 1.2143, 1.2200, 1.2245, 1.2300. Support levels: 1.2060, 1.2000, 1.1930. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted June 7, 2021 Author Report Share Posted June 7, 2021 Walt Disney Co.: wave analysis The price may grow. On the daily chart, a downward correction of the higher level developed as the fourth wave (4), and the fifth wave (5) develops. Now, the third wave of the lower level 3 of (5) has formed, a downward correction has ended as the wave 4 of (5), and the development of the wave 5 of (5) has started. If the assumption is correct, the price will grow to the levels of 202.98–220.00. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 166.66. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted June 8, 2021 Author Report Share Posted June 8, 2021 XAU/USD: gold is consolidating near 1900.00 again Current trend Gold prices are consolidating near 1900.00 in the morning session after a moderate increase the day before, which was supported by the weakness of USD. The US currency remains under significant pressure after last Friday's US labor market report for May reflected slower-than-expected growth in Nonfarm Payrolls. This week, traders are awaiting the publication of data on the dynamics of consumer inflation in the US in order to try to put together the big picture and predict the course of monetary policy from the US Fed. It is likely that the American regulator will again maintain a wait-and-see attitude, saying that inflation is facilitated by the active period of economic recovery after the pandemic. Support and resistance Bollinger Bands are showing insignificant growth on the daily chart. The price range is narrowing from below, indicating a multidirectional nature of trading in the short term. The MACD indicator is going down, maintaining a weak sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic, on the other hand, maintains a confident upward direction and is rapidly approaching its highs, which indicates the risks of an overbought instrument in the ultra-short term. Existing long positions should be held until the signals from technical indicators are clarified. Resistance levels: 1900.00, 1916.36, 1935.00, 1952.53. Support levels: 1882.10, 1863.34, 1850.00, 1830.00. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted June 9, 2021 Author Report Share Posted June 9, 2021 WTI Crude Oil: oil renews record highs Current trend Today, during the Asian session, prices for WTI Crude Oil are growing moderately, consolidating above the psychological level of $70 per barrel. Positive dynamics are taking place against a certain lull in the market, as investors prefer to wait for the appearance of a block of macroeconomic statistics on US consumer inflation. Next week, the next meeting of the US Federal Reserve System will take place, at which, as some experts expect, preliminary discussions of a gradual tightening of monetary policy in the country may begin. Additional support for the instrument was provided by the API report on oil reserves in American warehouses published on Tuesday. For the week of June 4, oil reserves decreased by 2.108M barrels after falling by 5.36M barrels over the previous period. Markets are awaiting the release of the final report on oil reserves from the US Department of Energy on Wednesday. Forecasts assume a decline of 3.576M barrels after a decrease of 5.08M barrels earlier. Support and resistance Bollinger bands grow steadily on the daily chart. The price range actively decreases, indicating the risks of the instrument being overbought in the nearest time intervals. MACD grows, maintaining a strong buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic, having approached its highs, reversed into a horizontal plane, signaling that the instrument is overbought in the ultra-short term. It is better to keep current long positions until the signals from technical indicators are clarified. Resistance levels: 71.00, 71.80, 73.00. Support levels: 70.00, 69.08, 68.15, 67.00, 65.74. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted June 11, 2021 Author Report Share Posted June 11, 2021 Altria Group Inc.: wave analysis The price may grow. On the daily chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) develops, within which the wave 3 of (1) forms. Now, the third wave of the lower level iii of 3 has formed, a local correction has ended as the fourth wave iv of 3, and the wave v of 3 is developing. If the assumption is correct, the price will grow to the levels of 55.00–57.50. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 45.22. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted June 14, 2021 Author Report Share Posted June 14, 2021 Microsoft Corp.: wave analysis The price may grow. On the daily chart, the fifth wave of the higher level (5) of 3 develops, within which the wave 3 of (5) forms. Now, the third wave of the lower level iii of 3 has developed, a local correction has formed as the fourth wave iv of 3, and the development of the fifth wave v of 3 has started. If the assumption is correct, the price will grow to the levels of 285.00–300.00. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 236.34. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted June 15, 2021 Author Report Share Posted June 15, 2021 USD/CHF: waiting for the US-Russia presidents’ summit Current trend The USD/CHF pair grows due to a slight USD increase, trading at the level of 0.8993. Tomorrow in Geneva, within the framework of the Russia-US summit, a personal meeting of Presidents Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden will be, where the parties, among other issues, will discuss the prospects for the development of bilateral relations. Before it, the volatility in the global markets dropped significantly, and the main instruments move without a pronounced trend. CHF is at the levels of the beginning of the week and did not react in any way to yesterday's May PPI, which rose by 0.8% MoM and by 3.2% YoY. USD Index moves in an extremely narrow sideways channel around 90.500, which is the upper border of a wide channel that has been forming for almost a month. Also to the upcoming talks in Geneva, investors are looking forward to today's release of US retail sales data for May, which could decline by 0.7%. On Tuesday, there are also data on industrial production, which are not expected to change. In general, no serious instrument movement before the start of the summit is expected, and the USD/CHF pair may continue trading at current levels. Support and resistance Globally, the price corrects upwards. Technical indicators keep a sell signal but reflect a correction: Alligator indicator’s EMA fluctuations range narrows, and the AO oscillator histogram, being in the sell zone, approaches the transition level. Resistance levels: 0.9036, 0.9138. Support levels: 0.8930, 0.8829. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted June 16, 2021 Author Report Share Posted June 16, 2021 JP Morgan Chase Co.: wave analysis The price is in a correction, a fall is possible. On the daily chart, the fifth wave of the higher level (5) forms, within which the wave 3 of (5) ended. Now, a downward correction has started to develop as the fourth wave 4 of (5). If the assumption is correct, the price will fall to the levels of 138.46–129.29. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 167.46. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted June 17, 2021 Author Report Share Posted June 17, 2021 American Express Co.: wave analysis The price may grow. On the daily chart, the fifth wave of the higher level (5) develops, within which the wave 3 of (5) forms. Now, the fifth wave of the lower level v of 3 is developing. If the assumption is correct, the price will grow to the levels of 180.00–190.00. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 150.80. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted June 18, 2021 Author Report Share Posted June 18, 2021 USD/JPY: the yen leads against the dollar again Current trend The USD/JPY pair moves ambiguously, trading around the level of 110.16. JPY took the lead in the instrument after the Bank of Japan meeting on monetary policy ended this morning. As expected by most experts, all parameters were almost unanimously extended for the next 6 months. The interest rate will remain at –0.10%, and the program for the purchase of exchange-traded funds and trusts (J-REIT) has been extended with an upper limit of about 12T yen. Until March 2022, the bank will buy corporate bonds with an upper limit of up to 20T yen. The regulator's actions were expected, as economic activity in Japan is still at extremely low levels. As for the American economy, the pace of recovery remains strong but the country has not been able to solve its most important problem – the decline in the labor market. Initial jobless claims were significantly higher than forecast again. Analysts had expected a reduction to 359K but the figure rose to 412K, and the total number of beneficiaries rose to 3.518M from 3.430M a week earlier. So, the labor market is the main deterrent to USD strengthening. Support and resistance The price moves within the ascending channel. Technical indicators keep a buy signal: the range of fluctuations in the EMA on the Alligator indicator is directed upwards, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is above the zero line. Support levels: 109.22, 107.83. Resistance levels: 110.75, 112.00. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted June 21, 2021 Author Report Share Posted June 21, 2021 Walt Disney Co.: wave analysis The price may grow. On the daily chart, a downward correction of the higher level developed as the fourth wave (4), and the fifth wave (5) develops. Now, the third wave of the lower level 3 of (5) has formed, a downward correction has ended as the wave 4 of (5), and the development of the wave 5 of (5) has started, within which the wave i of 5 is forming. If the assumption is correct, the price will grow to the levels of 202.98–220.00. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 166.66. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted June 22, 2021 Author Report Share Posted June 22, 2021 Brent Crude Oil: prospects for demand growth support quotes Current trend Benchmark Brent crude prices are on the upward trend amid rising global energy demand, trading around $75.00 per barrel. Last week, the instrument was pressured by the expectation of an inflow of Iranian oil to the market; however, after the slowdown in negotiations on the "nuclear deal", the total volume of demand began to significantly exceed supply, which allows the "black gold" rate to adjust upward. A positive point is the significantly increased consumption of petroleum products due to the prevalence of road transport in the world over the rest since most of the borders are closed for air travel. Paying attention to the main world arbitrage position of the spread between Brent Crude Oil and WTI Crude Oil, the range of fluctuations has narrowed significantly and is currently only $1.70, which is the lowest indicator since the price collapse in the summer of 2018. This fact suggests that the implementation of a large position is being prepared. Support and resistance On the global chart, the asset is moving within an uptrend. Technical indicators maintain a stable buy signal: Alligator indicator’s EMA fluctuations range expands upward, while the AO oscillator histogram remains high in the positive zone. Resistance levels: 76.00, 78.00. Support levels: 72.00, 65.00. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted June 23, 2021 Author Report Share Posted June 23, 2021 USD/CAD: wave analysis The pair is in a correction and may grow. On the daily chart, the downward wave of the higher level © of 4 develops, within which the third wave 3 of © formed. Now, an upward correction is developing as the fourth wave 4 of ©, within which the wave a of 4 has formed, and the wave b of 4 is developing. If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction, the pair will grow to the levels of 1.2537–1.2716. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.2194. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted June 24, 2021 Author Report Share Posted June 24, 2021 Alibaba Group Holdings Ltd.: wave analysis The price may fall. On the daily chart, the first upward wave of the higher level 1 developed, and a downward correction forms as the wave 2. Now, the wave © of 2 is forming, within which the third wave of the lower level 3 of © has formed, and a local correction is developing as the wave 4 of ©. If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction, the price will fall to the levels of 187.27–155.97. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 245.00. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted June 25, 2021 Author Report Share Posted June 25, 2021 GBP/USD: Bank of England is not ready to change the course of monetary policy Current trend The GBP/USD pair moves horizontally, trading around the level of 1.3930 amid the rhetoric of the Bank of England. GBP reacted neutrally to the regulator's decision not to change the main parameters of monetary policy and leave the interest rate at 0.10%, and the total volume of the government bond purchase program at 875B pounds. Officials of the department stressed that at the moment the priority is to achieve a stable inflation range above 2%, mainly due to a possible further increase in energy prices. The bank also drew attention to GDP growth rates, which are still below the benchmarks, and set a target range of around 5.5% for the third quarter. The US macroeconomic statistics were also viewed as neutral by investors. Although Initial Jobless Claims were higher than the forecast, amounting to 411K against 380K expected, USD rate remained at the level of the beginning of the week. Among the negative indicators, it is worth noting the decrease in durable goods orders for May to 0.3% from 1.7% for April. Now, it seems that the overpriced dollar is being held artificially, and in case of further deterioration of the quotes, the quotes may start to actively decline. Support and resistance The course moves within a wide lateral channel. Technical indicators keep a local sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are below the signal one, and the AO oscillator histogram is kept in the sell zone. Resistance levels: 1.3985, 1.4221. Support levels: 1.3788, 1.3668. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikhailLF Posted June 28, 2021 Author Report Share Posted June 28, 2021 USD/CAD: in anticipation of new growth drivers Current trend After a decline at the end of last week, today during the Asian session, the USD/CAD pair grows slightly, adding about 0.11% and trying to consolidate above the psychological level of 1.2300. Investors are assessing the prospects for tightening the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve in the light of the approval in Congress of a new plan to modernize the US infrastructure in the amount of almost $600B. The regulator was previously in no hurry to raise interest rates, so now analysts expect him to take even more measured actions. On Monday, traders expect statements from two representatives of the US Federal Reserve, John Williams and Randal Quarles, who are likely to express their views on the timing of tightening monetary policy and the rate of inflation in the country. Support and resistance Bollinger bands are actively growing on the daily chart. The price range is narrowing from below, reflecting the emergence of multidirectional trading dynamics in the short term. The MACD indicator is going down, maintaining a poor sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic, having approached the level of 20, reversed into a horizontal plane, reacting to the flat nature of the trades of the last days. It is better to wait for the clarification of signals from technical indicators to open new positions for the instrument. Resistance levels: 1.2300, 1.2352, 1.2400, 1.2439. Support levels: 1.2245, 1.2200, 1.2143, 1.2060. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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