Jaenisch and Morge Courses Available At Tradersoffer Site

[logicgate]

Hey guys, does anyone have those?

 

Reinhart Jaenisch – Using the Techniques of Andrews & Babson

 

https://tradersoffer.com/2016/07/11/reinhart-jaenisch-using-techniques-andrews-babson/

 

 

 

Alan Andrews – Private Seminar (Advanced Course)

 

https://tradersoffer.com/2016/10/22/alan-andrew-private-seminar/

 

 

 

The Market Geometry Advanced Seminar DVD

 

https://tradersoffer.com/product/market-geometry-advanced-seminar-dvd/

[ardilo]

please share in MEGA

Thanks in advanced

[iDov]

There's one thing that bugs me about all these methods: afaik none of them provide objective or even particularly clear criteria for choosing the A, B & C points that define the pitchfork. Just "AB is an impulsive move, BC is a correction". (& I watched quite a few hours of Morge and an English guy; forgot his name at one stage.)

[logicgate]

iDov, there is nothing special when it comes to selecting the pivots, it comes with experience in using the tool. He even says that in his webinars. You just need to choose the obvious pivots... It takes more than a couple of hours of webinars to understand stuff, you gotta practice. I recommend reading his book "mapping the markets" and also a book by greg fisher caled "median line study and also "pitchfork primer" by gordon deroos.

 

You need a high, a low and a high, or a low, a high and a low, as you train your eyes they really jump out at you. There are lots of pitchforks going on at the same time, big ones and small ones inside the big ones., you gotta keep track of the longer and intermediate term ones and keep deleting the small term ones because it starts cluttering the chart very fast. There is no secret and you can choose whatever pivots you want, the key is finding the current frequency of the market, the pitchfork will reveal it to you.

 

Also, when the regular method of drawing the pitchfork is not capturing the frequency, perhaps you gotta use a modified Schiff median line at that time.

Edited April 10, 2019 by logicgate

[avdst]

iDov, there is nothing special when it comes to selecting the pivots, it comes with experience in using the tool. He even says that in his webinars. You just need to choose the obvious pivots... It takes more than a couple of hours of webinars to understand stuff, you gotta practice. I recommend reading his book "mapping the markets" and also a book by greg fisher caled "median line study and also "pitchfork primer" by gordon deroos.

 

You need a high, a low and a high, or a low, a high and a low, as you train your eyes they really jump out at you. There are lots of pitchforks going on at the same time, big ones and small ones inside the big ones., you gotta keep track of the longer and intermediate term ones and keep deleting the small term ones because it starts cluttering the chart very fast. There is no secret and you can choose whatever pivots you want, the key is finding the current frequency of the market, the pitchfork will reveal it to you.

 

Also, when the regular method of drawing the pitchfork is not capturing the frequency, perhaps you gotta use a modified Schiff median line at that time.

 

Hi logicgate thanks for your guidance.

I am also learning pitchfork, this advice helped me as well.

 

I value the helping spirit in this forum. Please keep sharing and let me know if there is another thread where I can follow, learn and discuss on this strategy.

 

Thank you

[Tradermen]

Imho... You have a long way to profitability...

[avdst]

Imho... You have a long way to profitability...

 

Hi Tradermen, I am ok to put hard work, but should be in the right direction.

Hope choosing pitchfork is in the right direction?

[logicgate]

avdst

 

I have been on this road for 4 years already, blown 3 accounts, I have read practically 90% I think of all books on trading ever published and probably watched almost all relevant courses. I tell I wish I had learned about the median lines way earlier instead of ditching them, I thought it was just a fancy trendline and channel, but actually is a way better when you learn it's origins and the proper way to use it. There is one webinar by Tim Morge (don't remember the name now, but watch all Tim Morge previously recorded webinars at interactive brokers site) where the demonstrates how you can't find the path (or frequency) of the market by trying to draw channels the wrong way (like most people do and I used to do it also, and lost money).

 

I recommend you having a serious look at it.

 

A canadian mathematician called George Marechal did a 15 years forecast of the Dow Jones (back on the old days, the 30's) with extreme accuracy. No one knows how he did it, he was a friend of Babson and Andews and it is suspected that Andrews developed his median line concept from Marechal's approach. It is all very intriguing:

 

http://time-price-research-astrofin.blogspot.com/2017/10/george-marechals-stock-market-forecast.html

 

 

If you start studying the charts with the median lines you can see that it always forecast the price direction with high accuracy. Study the Action Reaction concept by Babson, you will see there is something to it, I couldn't believe at first, it is crazy. For example, when you choose a center line and it is a down sloping line, then you clone the line to find action lines (to the left, the past) and you align this line with down pivots (where price formed support). Then you clone the line again and move it to the right of the center line this time (to the future, to find reaction lines), you place them symmetrically opposed to the action lines. When the price reach the reaction lines it's gonna form up pivots (resistance). It is better to label the action reaction lines like A1, A2, A3 , R1 , R2, R3 and then study what happens. Sometimes is like a mirror image.

 

Down sloping center line will have down pivots on action lines and up pivots on reaction lines. Up sloping center line will have up pivots on action lines and down pivots on reaction lines.

 

But don't take my word for it, nor anyone's opinion, the worst thing you can do in this business is listening to others blindly. You gotta gather the knowledge, and more importantly TEST the knowledge, and then after some time you gonna see what makes sense to you and what doesn't, you will know how to filter books and getting from them only what you want, but first you gotta know what you are looking for. This way you start to weave your own approach, which is unique to you. No one ever will trade exactly the same.

Edited April 11, 2019 by logicgate

[avdst]

avdst

 

I have been on this road for 4 years already, blown 3 accounts, I have read practically 90% I think of all books on trading ever published and probably watched almost all relevant courses. I tell I wish I had learned about the median lines way earlier instead of ditching them, I thought it was just a fancy trendline and channel, but actually is a way better when you learn it's origins and the proper way to use it. There is one webinar by Tim Morge (don't remember the name now, but watch all Tim Morge previously recorded webinars at interactive brokers site) where the demonstrates how you can't find the path (or frequency) of the market by trying to draw channels the wrong way (like most people do and I used to do it also, and lost money).

 

I recommend you having a serious look at it.

 

A canadian mathematician called George Marechal did a 15 years forecast of the Dow Jones (back on the old days, the 30's) with extreme accuracy. No one knows how he did it, he was a friend of Babson and Andews and it is suspected that Andrews developed his median line concept from Marechal's approach. It is all very intriguing:

 

http://time-price-research-astrofin.blogspot.com/2017/10/george-marechals-stock-market-forecast.html

 

 

If you start studying the charts with the median lines you can see that it always forecast the price direction with high accuracy. Study the Action Reaction concept by Babson, you will see there is something to it, I couldn't believe at first, it is crazy. For example, when you choose a center line and it is a down sloping line, then you clone the line to find action lines (to the left, the past) and you align this line with down pivots (where price formed support). Then you clone the line again and move it to the right of the center line this time (to the future, to find reaction lines), you place them symmetrically opposed to the action lines. When the price reach the reaction lines it's gonna form up pivots (resistance). It is better to label the action reaction lines like A1, A2, A3 , R1 , R2, R3 and then study what happens. Sometimes is like a mirror image.

 

Down sloping center line will have down pivots on action lines and up pivots on reaction lines. Up sloping center line will have up pivots on action lines and down pivots on reaction lines.

 

But don't take my word for it, nor anyone's opinion, the worst thing you can do in this business is listening to others blindly. You gotta gather the knowledge, and more importantly TEST the knowledge, and then after some time you gonna see what makes sense to you and what doesn't, you will know how to filter books and getting from them only what you want, but first you gotta know what you are looking for. This way you start to weave your own approach, which is unique to you. No one ever will trade exactly the same.

 

I lost money twice earlier, by going blindly by the trading tips /alerts. After that loss I have been studying and exploring strategies, but could not get confidence, instead got confused. But always found most expert traders suggesting pitchfork, median line approach. Wish your inputs will give me the required path to success. Thanks again for sharing.

Edited April 11, 2019 by avdst
Added my experience

[iDov]

@logicgate

"You gotta gather the knowledge, and more importantly TEST the knowledge"

Exactly... & I'd need to automate a test of pitchforks to trust them/trading strategies based on them. The pivots are all that matters for pitchforks, but "choosing the obvious pivots" isn't really clear enough to code up.

 

AFIAK there are two objective definitions of pivots:

- d-degree zigzag filter -- a d-degree high(low) is at least d points (/pips/%) above(below) the previous low(high), and is 'anchored' when price reverses d points (or whatever) down(up)

- n-range max/min - an n-bar high(low) is higher(lower) than n bars to the left and right

 

Has anyone tried something as simple as these with pitchforks?

 

(My guess is they don't work very well if applied in such a broad-brush way, and that the 'action' (AB) move needs to look 'impulsive', with wide bars, closes near top of range, small lower candle wicks, modest pullbacks, gaps in the trend directoin. Summarizing all these into one objective measure of impulsiveness seems quite tricky.)

[Lorexm90]

This is almost the same Journey of mine. I've read/watched probably 300 books/course of all different subjects of the trading field. After all you are going to understand what make sense to you and you will develop your unique approach to the market. For me it's been the cycle theory the core concept where i built on my trading techinique. I can also say that all the techniques based only on price/volume and time, without fancy indicators, have some sort of value that it's worth the time spending for reading/watching them. Edited April 11, 2019 by Lorexm90

[logicgate]

iDov

 

Sorry to piss on your bonfire, but you are taking the wrong approach. You can't trust and you can't have a computer doing the hard work for you, you gotta do it yourself. First of all, you can't code this for back testing. It is a discretionary approach. Even if you could code this for back testing, you wouldn't be learning anything from the technique., you wouldn't be training your eyes to identify the setups, the nuances, etc...

 

If you wanna learn and become a master, you have to go back in time and start drawing the pitchfork and do paper trading, why not use a simulator? You can control the speed of the market, it is good training.

 

Giving some commands to the computer spit out some calculations will give you false results of performance of a technique, and you won't learn how to do it.

Edited April 12, 2019 by logicgate

[noonw]

@iDov:

 

try determining the pivots on a higher timeframe and draw the pitchfork on a lower timeframe

 

f.ex. determine by any formal method the pivots on the daily tf, translate them to the respective pivots on the M15 and

draw the lines. This will give you workable pivots guaranteed

[iDov]

@logicgate: people can have different perspectives.

 

Last time I checked the point of trading was... to make money. Why bother to "become a master", if there are profitable non-discretionary systems out there that can be back-tested in seconds, instead of hours poring over historical charts? I'd rather spend that time working on coding skills - which are also more broadly applicable - and may allow some "discretionary" systems to be converted into non-discretionary ones.

[logicgate]

iDov, I have to disagree. Mechanical systems work for a little time, until they don't. This is well documented is several books.

 

The mechanical system is lke a sinewave in a fixed frequency. The market is a sinewave that is is always being slowly modulated by another sinewave.

 

So the mechanical system will sync to the market for a couple of cycles, then it will go out of sync for way longer, and you gonna give back all you have earned.

 

In all books read so far, I have never come across a successful trader who relies on code or mechanical system, otherwise it would be too easy and a lot of people would be rich already. If we just needed to code a "successful system" then all those big institutions, banks, etc.. They would all just leave a computer running with a code making trades, I don't see that, I see the best traders in the world in charge of trading in those places.

 

Well, time will show you. I just think that your approach is the approach of jumping between systems when they stop working, that is documented as the losing approach.

 

Best regads

[Tradermen]

"But always found most expert traders suggesting pitchfork, median line approach. "

 

Those experts have a verifiable track Record?

[⭐ flipper26]

iDov, I have to disagree. Mechanical systems work for a little time, until they don't. This is well documented is several books.

 

The mechanical system is lke a sinewave in a fixed frequency. The market is a sinewave that is is always being slowly modulated by another sinewave.

 

So the mechanical system will sync to the market for a couple of cycles, then it will go out of sync for way longer, and you gonna give back all you have earned.

 

In all books read so far, I have never come across a successful trader who relies on code or mechanical system, otherwise it would be too easy and a lot of people would be rich already. If we just needed to code a "successful system" then all those big institutions, banks, etc.. They would all just leave a computer running with a code making trades, I don't see that, I see the best traders in the world in charge of trading in those places.

 

Well, time will show you. I just think that your approach is the approach of jumping between systems when they stop working, that is documented as the losing approach.

 

Best regads

 

Have to disagree with you. There are plenty of people who are successful with mechanical or algo trading systems and alot of trading is moving in that direction. Know one trader in particular that scalps hundreds of trades in a day on various instruments and is highly successful. Know another that is much longer term, can be in a trade for days or weeks, but is automated. They will never share their code or systems, or write a book about it - would you?

It's not the way I want to trade and probably couldn't do it but don't assume others aren't successful at it.

[logicgate]

Can you show me those various people who are successful using a 100% mechanical approach to the markets? Can they show their broker's account statements?

 

One guy is the exception, not the norm. Did he ever show to you his broker's statement? Or you are just believing his word? As I said, practically all the trading literature will say that a 100% mechanical system will ultimately fail. I can't even imagine doing hundreds of scalps a day, after commission and tax he will have pocket change.

 

 

I have an opposite view about keeping trading secrets. The only reason that technical analysis works is because a lot of people is watching the same indicators, patterns, trendlines, support and resistance levels, this all makes the so called "self fulfilling prophecies" to happen. If you are watching something that no one else is watching or acting upon, how it is gonna work? You need buying and selling activity to make prices move, at the same time and price. Your edge is never gonna go away if your methods are known by a lot of people, it will even enhance it.

Edited April 12, 2019 by logicgate

[iDov]

1) The mechanical system is lke a sinewave in a fixed frequency.

...

2) In all books read so far, I have never come across a successful trader who relies on code or mechanical system, otherwise it would be too easy and a lot of people would be rich already.

...

I just think that your approach is the approach of jumping between systems when they stop working, that is documented as the losing approach.

 

1) The problem you identify with mechanical systems is mostly due to them using fixed lookback windows. Machine learning systems allow use of multiple indicators, so the problem is less serious. (ie there are ways of identifying which lookback periods are useful, even if that's changing.)

2) I believe all the 'Turtle Traders' and a good percentage of Schwager's "Market Wizards" used mechanical methods.

3) I've mentioned several approaches recently, but that's not 'jumping between systems', I'm just trying to figure out which I can systematize with the idea of combining them as inputs to an ML model. That's a long term project; shorter term I've coded up simple mechanical strategies for VIX trading from "Easy Volatility Investing" (Tony Cooper); next stop (hopefully) is combining them to form a better performing system (via ML), for some people who were looking for safer ways to short vol.

 

Anyway, each to his/her own :)

[iDov]

Can you show me those various people who are successful using a 100% mechanical approach to the markets? Can they show their broker's account statements?

 

He/they not trying to sell systems, they have no reason to show anyone anything...

[logicgate]

iDov

 

If people can't prove their claims then I don't believe a word.

 

Sure mate, do whatever works for you, I wish you don't lose money. I, personally, would never leave my trade decisions to a computer to make.

[iDov]

If people can't prove their claims then I don't believe a word.

 

Sure mate, do whatever works for you, I wish you don't lose money. I, personally, would never leave my trade decisions to a computer to make.

 

Sensible, but when someone doesn't have anything to gain by claiming X, there's less need for scepticism.

 

Seems like we just have different 'trading personalities' - no problem. I hope it all goes well for you too!

[⭐ flipper26]

Can you show me those various people who are successful using a 100% mechanical approach to the markets? Can they show their broker's account statements?

 

One guy is the exception, not the norm. Did he ever show to you his broker's statement? Or you are just believing his word? As I said, practically all the trading literature will say that a 100% mechanical system will ultimately fail. I can't even imagine doing hundreds of scalps a day, after commission and tax he will have pocket change.

 

 

I have an opposite view about keeping trading secrets. The only reason that technical analysis works is because a lot of people is watching the same indicators, patterns, trendlines, support and resistance levels, this all makes the so called "self fulfilling prophecies" to happen. If you are watching something that no one else is watching or acting upon, how it is gonna work? You need buying and selling activity to make prices move, at the same time and price. Your edge is never gonna go away if your methods are known by a lot of people, it will even enhance it.

 

Obviously I'm not going to show you those people because they are private individuals (or working for firms) and do not want to be public or can't be public about their methodology. As I said they're not going to share their methods or write books. They are trading for a living. What do they gain by writing books????

 

Been around long enough and traded long enough to know how to vet people. I know more than one guy trading algo systems, I merely mentioned one extreme example because it is so different yet demonstrates the possibilities. This individual makes thousands of dollars a day after commissions (yes, I have seen proof and records of his trades). By the way he pays a lot less in commission than the rest of us because of his volume. He trades with a highly successful group using the same algos.

 

I know enough others who also trade algo methods and are very successful but their methods and approach are different. My point being that algo methods work for some just as various methods work for others. Do not knock the methods just because that's not what you're into.

 

Not sure what literature you are reading but there is specific literature on mechanical methods so just because it's not in the books you're reading doesn't mean it doesn't exist or isn't successful.

[logicgate]

I didn't say they had to write books...

 

Anyways, I only believe in stuff with real evidence. Certainly won't believe in an anonymous person claiming stuff on an internet forum, you know the drill.

 

 

Best regards

[iDov]

@flipper26: "flipper26 has exceeded their stored private messages quota and cannot accept further messages until they clear some space." :))