Fresh Forex forecast

[Volkov Yuriy]

Gold, Silver, Oil Weekly Analysis

Gold Weekly Review

Weekly Review:

 

For the past three weeks Gold has traded short following a bounce from a the weekly resistant level 117735. Following the previous week's downward movements, we are very reluctant to go long, however, the size of the previous week's red candle indicate that, although we are headed short, the downward movement may be short lived probably only up to lower support trend line. Any clear movements below this trend line will signal further downward movements to the lower side. We will however be looking for long positions along this supportive trend line.

Trade Recommendations:

If you haven't sold gold already, wait and sell below 1064.77 but with out targets at 1041.33, and the next target at the support trend line.

 

Silver Weekly Review

 

Weekly Review:

 

Since Silver bounced of from a resistive trend line at 16.038, the commodity has continually headed short, The commodity even ended up closing below a very significant support level 14.33. Following this downward movements, we are very reluctant to go long, instead we will remain short but with an ultimate stop at the lower supportive trend line. Any movements below this support trend line will signal further movements to the lower side.

Downward movements in other commodities such as Gold, will signal similar downward movements in silver. These commodities are positively correlated are thus expected to follow similar price movements.

Trade Recommedations:

Remain short in the silver markets but with an ultimate stop at the lower supportive trend line. Any clear movements will signal further movements to the lower side.

 

Oil weekly Review

 

Weekly Review:

 

For the past six weeks, after oil bounced off from a key weekly resistant 49.64, the commodity has continued short and is currently trading along a very significant support level 40.41. Following the massive downward movements witnessed during the previous week, we are very reluctant to execute long positions. However, we will be keen to look for further short positions below 36.77. This downward movements is highly anticipated since since other commodities such as Gold has been short for almost three weeks, meaning as long as gold continues short, oil and other commodities may as well be headed short. Gold, Silver, and oil appear to have positive correlation.

In an event that bullish candles appear above 40.41, then we will be looking for potential buy positions. this would only mean the demand has began to outdo supply of the commodity.

Trade Recommendation:

Remain short but only up to 36.77, any clear movements below this level will signal further movements to the lower side.

 

Check the website for more information: https://freshforex.com/analitics/fresh-forecast/forex-correlation-and-Elliott-wave-analysis/week_1044.html

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EURUSD Elliot Waves Analysis For 8 June 2016

 

08 June 2016, EUR/USD

 

EURUSD Elliot Waves Analysis For 8 June 2016

Wave Analysis

 

 

EUR/USD is currently ranging around 1.1377. As expected yesterday, this pair is in a process of a triangular formation. Thus, during this intraday, we are not in a hurry to go short or long instead, we are waiting for a break above the triangle to go long or a break below it to short.A break above 1.1377 is highly likely, though we cannot rule out the possibility of price moving in an opposite direction. This pair should be traded alongside EUR/GBP, and AUD/USD. These pairs have a strong positive correlation of up to +0.95 and will have a similar price action during this intraday.

 

Trade Recommendations:

 

Remain flat for now and wait for a clear breakout above 1.1377 to go long with your target at 1.1438 or a break below the lower trendline forming bottom of the triangle to go short with your target at 1.1324 and 1.1263.

Check the website for more information.

[Volkov Yuriy]

Daily Forex market review 29 June 2016

 

 

EUR/USD (Euro/dollar pair)

 

US GDP for the first quarter was revised to the positive direction, and June's index of consumer confidence from the Conference Board rose to its highest level for the 8 months. Thus, economic growth ha accelerated in the United States, which favors US dollar.

- ADX on the daily, 4-hours and the hourly charts indicates a flat.

- RSI on the daily, 4-hours and the hourly charts indicates a flat as well.

- We should open Sell positions at 1.1100 (one eleven double zero) and 1.1150 (one eleven fifty). As for Take profit orders, we should set them at 1.1040 (one ten forty) (area of the lower Bollinger bands indicator on the hourly chart).

GBP/USD (Pound/dollar)

- On 27 and 28 of June two largest international rating agencies Standard & Poor's and Fitch downgraded the UK's rating, that will force outflow of capital from the country.

- ADX on the daily, 4-hours and the hourly charts indicates a flat.

- RSI on the daily, 4-hours and the hourly charts indicates a flat as well.

- The pair is in the flat, cause large market participants continue to build up short position in the market.

- We should open Sell positions at 1.3390 (one thirty three ninety) and 1.3500 (one thirty five double zero). As for Take profit orders, we should set them at 1.3240 (one thirty two forty) (area of strong support level).

USD/JPY (Dollar/Japanese Yen)

- On tuesday the fear index S&P500 VIX showed a decline in the rate of 21.3% (twenty one dot three per cent) It indicates an increase in demand in risky assets and allows bulls testing the upper border within the range 101.39 -103.25. (one hundred and one dot thirty nine - one hundred and three dot twenty five)

- ADX on the daily chart indicates a strong downtrend; whereas, on the 4-hour and the hourly charts it shows flat.

- RSI on the daily, 4-hours and the hourly charts indicates a flat.

- We should open Sell positions at 102.80 (one hundred and two dot eighty) and 103.20 (one hundred and one dot twenty) (area the upper Bollinger bands on the hourly chart) As for Take profit orders, we should set them at 102,00 (one hundred and two sharply) (area of the lower border Bollinger bands indicator on the hourly chart).

 

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Daily Forex market review 30 June 2016

 

 

EUR/USD (Euro/dollar pair)

US report on private consumption for May indicates acceleration of economic growth in the second quarter, which is positive for US dollar.

- ADX on the daily and 4-hour charts indicates a flat, on the hourly chart it is nearing the downtrend zone.

- RSI on the daily, 4-hour charts and the hourly chart indicates a flat.

- We should open Sell positions at 1.1140 (one eleven forty) and 1.1180 (one eleven eighty) (area of the upper Bollinger band on the hourly chart). As for Take profit orders, we should set them at 1.1060 (one ten sixty) (area of the lower border on the Bollinger bands indicator on the hourly chart).

GBP/USD (Pound /dollar)

- In credit markets, yield of the 10-years' UK government bonds has dropped against their counterparts from the USA and Germany, which makes investments in British assets less attractive. The bond market still conveys that sales of the pound are not over yet.

- ADX on the daily and 4-hour charts indicates a flat, on the hourly chart it is nearing the downtrend zone.

- RSI on the daily, 4-hour charts and the hourly chart indicates a flat.

- We should open Sell positions at 1.3480 (one thirty four eighty) and 1.3530 (one thirty five thirty) (area of the upper Bollinger band on the hourly chart) As for Take profit orders, we should set them at 1.3350 (one thirty three fifty) (area of the lower Bollinger band indicator on the hourly chart).

USD /JPY (Dollar/Japanese Yen)

- Despite a strong growth of stock indices since the beginning of the trading week (for example, Nikkei 225 rose by 4.11% (four dot eleven per cent) and the Euro Stoxx 50 by 2.02% - two dot zero two per cent), the pair has completely ignored this positive background and demonstrated a modest growth by 0,3% (zero fot three per cent) . This indicates a large number of sellers on the market.

- ADX on the daily chart indicates a strong downtrend; whereas on the 4-hour chart and hourly charts it indicates a flat.

- RSI on the daily, 4-hour charts and the hourly chart indicates a flat.

- We should open Sell positions at 102.90 (one hundred and two dot ninety) and 103.30 (one hundred and three dot thirty) (area the upper Bollinger band on the hourly chart). Open Take profit orders at 101.50 (one hundred and one dot fifty) (area of the lower border Bollinger band on the 4-hour chart).

 

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Daily Forex market review 05 July 2016

 

 

EUR/USD (Euro/dollar pair)

- on Monday the Italian government said that is not going to solve problems of credit institutions at the expense of state. Problems in Italian banks (and not only they alone) and a lot of investors began to sell banks' shares in a hurry, which is negative for the euro.

- ADX on the daily chart shows the flat; whereas on the hourly chart it shows the downtrend.

- RSI is out of the oversoldness area and allows us holding Sell trades.

- Recommendation: We should open Sell positions from 1.1140 (one eleven forty) and 1.1170 (one eleven seventy) (area of the middle and upper Bollinger bands, respectively). Set take profit at 1.1097 (one ten ninety seven) (a strong support).

GBP/USD (Pound /dollar)

- PMI index of the UK construction sector in June fell to its lowest level since October 2009 (two thousand and nine). In our opinion, this is just the beginning. Further we will receive an entire portion of weak macroeconomic statistics, cut of the rate by the Bank of England, increase of the QE (Quantitative Easing) package and decline of the pound to new multi-years Lows.

- ADX on the daily chart shows the flat; the hourly chart shows the downtrend.

- RSI on the hourly chart is in the oversoldness area, signaling a possible upward correction.

- Recommendation: We should open Sell positions from 1.3260 (one thirty two sixty) and 1.3305 (one thirty three zero five) (area of the middle and upper Bollinger bands, respectively). Set take profit at 1,3119 (one thirty one nineteen) (a strong support)

USD/JPY (Dollar/Japanese Yen

- "Risk appetite" has dropped again, which plays into the hands of bears. Once again, dark clouds are above the European banking sector: the Italian government refused to provide banks with additional liquidity. The management of Deutsche Bank does not know what to do with bad assets. Very often, crises begins with the banking sector. In 2008, it were the US banks, now, 8 years later, apparently, it will be the European financial institutions.

- ADX on the daily chart shows the flat; whereas on the 4-hour and hourly charts it shows the downtrend chart.

- RSI hourly chart has formed a divergence in the oversoldness zone, indicating the upward correction.

- Recommendation: We should open Sell positions from 102.30 (one hundred and two dot thirty) and 102.65 (one hundred and two dot sixty five) (the area of the middle Bollinger band). Set take profit at 100,82 (one hundred sharply dot eighty two (a strong support)

 

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Daily Forex market review 28 July 2016

 

 

EUR/USD (Euro/dollar pair)

 

- On the bond market, trend for euro is still negative: spread of yield of the 10-years' US and German bonds is expanded. It makes investment in US assets more attractive.

- ADX indicator on the 4-hours' chart shows the uptrend; whereas on the hourly chart it shows the flat.

- RSI indicator shapes divergence in the overboughtness zone on the hourly chart, which means the downtrend

- Recommendation: trade inside the flat 1.1030 -1.1130. (one ten thirty – one eleven thirty)

The next pair - GBP/USD (Pound/dollar)

- The day before, traders ignored strong report on UK GDP for the second quarter. It proves a large number of sellers in the market. Another negative factor for the pair is sales on the oil market. The day before, US Department of Energy reported an increase of crude oil reserves by 1.6 (one dot six) million barrels – and that was after a nine-weeks' drop of reserves.

- Both indicators - RSI and ADX - show the flat on the daily, 4-hours and hourly charts

- Today, there is the flat range 1.3060 -1.3250 (one thirty sixty - one thirty two fifty) (which corresponds to Bollinger envelope on the hourly chart)

- Recommendation: We should open Sell trades from 1.3250 (one thirty two fifty) , and take profit at 1,3100 (one thirty one double zero).

And finally, USD/JPY (Dollar/Japanese Yen)

- Multidirectional vector of monetary policy of the US and Japanese Central Banks leaves investors no choice but to building long positions on decline of the price. Dynamics of the US stock market also indicates a continued uptrend: the day before, the fear index VIX closed the day in the "red zone", which is a positive factor for the stock market.

- ADX indicator on the daily chart shows the uptrend; whereas on the hourly chart it shows the downtrend.

- RSI indicator shapes divergence in the oversoldness zone on the hourly chart, which means the uptrend

- Recommendation: We should open Buy trades from 104.50 (one hundred and four dot fifty) and take profit at 105,50. (one hundred and five dot fifty)

 

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FreshForex Company has prepared a surprise: every client can get a gift set: Advisor, indicator and script for free! More Information

 

Daily Forex market review 2 August 2016

 

 

EUR/USD (Euro/dollar pair)

- On the one hand, sales on the commodity market will support the US currency, as the cost of commodities is denominated in USD. On the other hand, weak PMI on the UK manufacturing sector can have a positive impact on EUR/GBP (euro/pound) cross-rate. In its turn, it is positive for EUR/USD, so we expect a flat on this pair.

- ADX indicator on the daily and 4-hours charts shows the uptrend.

- RSI indicator on the 4-hours chart is overbought, which means the downtrend.

- Recommendation: trade inside the flat 1.1150 -1.1210 (one dot eleven fifty - one twelve ten)

The next pair - GBP/USD (Pound/dollar)

- Today, Markit information company will publish PMI report on the UK construction sector. Taking into account Brexit, we can expect release of weak data. Political risks jeopardize commercial and residential property markets. Sales are still observed on the oil market and Brent quotations are to test the psychological level $40/barrel, which means the downtrend.

Both indicators – ADX and RSI – on the daily, 4-hour s and hourly charts show the flat.

- Recommendation: Open Sell trades at 1,3220 (one thirty two twenty) and take profit at 1,3140 (one thirty one forty)

And finally, USD/JPY (Dollar/Japanese Yen)

- The day before, the "fear" index VIX S&P five hundred 500 grew by 6%. In Europe, leaders of the most notable decline were shares of the banking sector including Italian shares. The outflow from risky assets will cause the inflow of capital into the Japanese yen, which means the downtrend.

Both indicators – ADX and RSI – on the daily, 4-hour s and hourly charts show the flat.

- Recommendation: Open Sell trades at 102.45 (one hundred and two dot forty five) and take profit at 101.90 (one hundred and one dot ninety).

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Daily Forex market review 3 August 2016

 

 

EUR/USD (Euro/dollar pair)

- Today the United States will publish the reports on employment from ADP and business activity in the field of services from ISM. Taking into account the fast economic growth, both indicators may be better than the consensus forecast, which is positive for US dollar.

- ADX indicator on the daily and 4-hours charts shapes the uptrend; whereas on the hourly chart it shows the downtrend.

- RSI indicator on the 4-hours chart is in the overboughtness area and has formed a divergence there, which means the downtrend.

- Recommendation: trade inside the flat 1.1150 -1.1210 (one dot eleven fifty - one twelve ten) .

The next pair - GBP/USD (Pound/dollar)

- In the afternoon, we will probably see the negative release on crude oil reserves from the US Department of Energy. It will put the oil under pressure and in this regard, we can see the demand in the US currency, as the cost of commodity is denominated in US dollars.

- ADX indicator on the daily and 4-hours charts shows the flat; whereas on the hourly chart it shows the downtrend.

- RSI indicator on the daily, 4-hours and hourly charts shows the flat

- Recommendation: Open Sell trades at 1,3365 (one thirty three sixty five) and take profit at 1,3265 (one thirty two sixty five).

And finally, USD/JPY (Dollar/Japanese Yen)

 

- An outflow of capital from risky assets supported the Japanese yen as a funding currency. The day before, on US stock market, the index of "fear" VIX S&P500 grew by 7.4% (seven dot four per cent), which means the downtrend.

- ADX Indicator on the monthly and weekly charts shows the downtrend; on the daily, 4-hours and hourly charts it shows the flat

- RSI indicator on the daily and hourly charts shows the flat.

- Recommendation: Open Sell trades at 101.30 (one hundred and one dot thirty) and take profit at 100.60 (one hundred sharply dot sixty)

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[Volkov Yuriy]