Traderbeauty Method for the ES.

[Traderbeauty]

one of the toughest jobs using price action or fibs is to know where from to measure and to where- thats is where most of the traders fail.

The following current live situation is a perfect example- this is much harder because my real money is involved so this is not a hypothetical one lol.

So look at the image and think- where do we measure from ?

we know where the ending is- that is the bottom but how far up we think it will go ?

if this was a day trading scenario i would not enter before the upper trendline- but since i have no positions at all i plan to enter earlier even though i know i might get some fire and draw down but that is part of the game.

so i plan to go in at the 38 fib but should i measure from point A , B or C ?

take a look- think and then scroll to the next post.

 

http://i.imgur.com/Weu0JqW.jpg

[Traderbeauty]

and the answer is going to.......

POINT A

The rest is noise and garbage.

but------ again- since i am anxious to enter and since i have seen many times on very strong trends ( this time down ) where you can miss the entire move unless you enter a bit earlier- so i have my first order of 6 contracts at 1915- i might update it a bit as we get closer but not by much.

so you can see that the difference between A and B is not much so i dont want to take a chance and miss a nice move here.

 

Another very important point you need to watch is the daily volume- look how the volume is going down while the market goes up- we have a huge divergence between the price and the volume so that is why i decided to enter asap which is the 38 fib and not wait for the upper trendline.

 

http://i.imgur.com/ROMyTxK.jpg

[Traderbeauty]

one last thing i wanted to show you is the weekly-

lets compare between the last three weeks-

first week had very high volume with a nice large down move-

the second week ( two weeks ago) had a higher volume but only half or even third of the move- that means that the volume did not justify the move- that means- a lot of hidden buyers- that is why i decided to exit all my shorts which was smart.

now look at last week- we have almost similar volume with a very small up move which is not so great for the bulls- so again- it tells me that we might only get to the 38 fib.

on the other hand- if you ever studied candlesticks- you know that last week's candle is very bullish-

bottom line- i dont know what will happen - i can only be prepared for almost every scenario there is and i have enough buying power- in reality- the more the market goes up and the more contracts i go in with i make more money at the end.

will keep you posted.

take care and have a wonderful wekend

jane

 

http://i.imgur.com/vRdRBHs.jpg

[Traderbeauty]

a quick update-

the first entry is going to be 1918.75

as i explained- as we get near our level we can fine tune the entry.

[tradermic]

pullback: long 1994/stop1992.75 ; kill X_X Edited January 27, 2016 by tradermic

[sw_es]

friend traderbeauty - in a previous post you mention that you (sometimes) monitor volume per minute (at least I think you said minute) and if it exceeds a certain threshold you might stay on the sidelines until the volatility settles. Is that still one of your current strategies?

 

Thank you. - steve

[Traderbeauty]

yes steve- that is when i do my day trading.

if the volume exceeds 8 or 9 k contracts per minute i know that something is happening and its too dangerous for me to be in.

My stops are usually few ticks to 6 ticks max and if the volatility is too high these stops will be breached for sure so why play the hero and lose.

[Traderbeauty]

pullback: long 1994/stop1992.75 ; kill X_X

 

Hi

I did not want to say anything but if you look at the longer term fibs you will see that 1907 is the 38 fib of the large last leg that actually extended even the 2.61 so i was expecting a strong move right there - at least temporary which actually happened - even with the fed report. (1910 was the high ) so if you look at the bigger picture you will understand that you were going against the market which is ok as long as you are not near a critical fib (1907) or at least if you exit right there.

[Traderbeauty]

changed to 1915.75 again.

things just changed again- we have a huge triangle but also an almost 78 fib ( will try to post image later) so i am torn between 1915.75 and 1922.5 which is the safer one- but on the other hand i dont want to miss such a huge potential target move so i am entering at the lower one knowing that the market can move a lot against me.( keep in mind the original scenario-but also keep in mind that scenarios change according to news and conditions).

[Traderbeauty]

i rest my case again- so far prediction is perfect.

entered first 6

will add on each fib.

my profit target per contract is between $6500 and aprox $40,000 ( meaning- multiply that by 6 )

:) :) :)

let the game start

was too long without any positions ( would love to say --- felt naked --- but then i have to suffer funny jokes lol )

btw- i love the academy indicators- watching live and will give some feedback over the weekend.

the thing about re-paint is not correct- you need to use your logic and minimum judgement for entries-

jane

[⭐ laser1000it]

http://i67.tinypic.com/rkwuuu.png

[sw_es]

yes steve- that is when i do my day trading.

if the volume exceeds 8 or 9 k contracts per minute i know that something is happening and its too dangerous for me to be in.

My stops are usually few ticks to 6 ticks max and if the volatility is too high these stops will be breached for sure so why play the hero and lose.

 

Thx for the confirmation. And that's a very precise and confident entry you are making, given those tight stops. Good on ya. I will study this thread carefully. Thx for your investment in this thread and forum.

[traderin]

hie TraderBeauty ,

 

last time i got some queries u said to post charts . mean time i went through book posted by trellis . i am posting the images please go through when u have time . for finding supports and resistances using fibs

 

http://prntscr.com/9x642z

 

http://prntscr.com/9x64ux

 

 

Thanking you

[Redbullish]

http://s30.postimg.org/jlxp5azvl/EPH6_Primary_Analysis_Feb_01_1910_PM_6_hour.png

 

Hi TB, here's my Fibs, my bias is long on 38 and prev. Week VA to target 50 and 61.8 LVN

How does it fit into your view?

Edited February 1, 2016 by Redbullish

[Traderbeauty]

so here is my long term chart- as you can see - once i found out where the ping pong hit i know where it will end and i aim accordingly- thats it- the method is very simple- all you need is some logic.

now- here is a little twist-

as you all know - i have been shorting the market for the last year and half and i still do that now-

i shorted at the 38 and i will add at the 50, 61.8 and 78 and last- right at the trend line.

this is a warning- unless you have deep pockets and can handle such a large draw down DO NOT follow me ( unless its paper )- i am just showing you what i do live in real money in a slow motion.

right now i am going against the current market but not against the bigger picture.

i dont know how far high the market will go and i dont care, not going to guess or smart out the market- no sense doing that.

if it will collapse at the 50 then my down target will be 1.6 etc so i have patience and time.

 

Redbulish- very nice fib but... in my humble opinion- this is not the right leg to measure.

 

take care

 

jane

 

http://i.imgur.com/vo8jybW.jpg

[wcicom]

Hi Redbullish,

 

Yes...you are measuring exactly the right leg. Have to open a little trick here to make a point. Look where last large bounce stopped on your chart, at exactly what is now 38.2, this is how exact low is projected, by stretching 38.2 from latest largest bounce on the chart. Most folks, including most people who wrote books about Fibonacci, don't know how to use them correctly....and then complain that they do not work. :)

 

Simon

[Redbullish]

Thanks for your feedback! Btw that's the fractal nature of the market: small fishes have to scalp small bites at a time while big pockets can relax while cumulate positions :">

[Redbullish]

Tnks Wcicom for your feedback too! I would just like to keep in sync with the same things that the majority of ppl are seeing...

I imagine a lot of small weak hands who try to emulate the TB style will fade the early fibs but since they're undercapitalized and they usually sucks at taking profits there will be plenty of stops just all over the fibs to provide fuel (fibo-squeezer)

[vit007]

Today was a perfect retracement from 50% . If you wonder why fibs works look at lines they all correspond to High and Low volume areas .

 

http://i68.tinypic.com/atkk05.jpg

[Traderbeauty]

very good guys- all of you- really proud at last to see some real discussions and not just indicators grabbing.

 

vit- the hardest part of fib is deciding from where to where to plot and you really need a deep insight- its so easy to make a mistake.

 

imho-it will bounce from a greater fib and not from the one you show-

i believe it will go to the 61.2 ( see my chart above post #265 ) at least- only there we have enough previous resistance to reverse the up move.

also- keep in mind that it can go up to the upper trend line .

 

so far we only have higher highs and higher lows on the 240 or 180 min chart so the move up has not ended yet.

i have my shorts to add at the 50 and 61.8 and 78- i will post my broker's live- realy account results once we get something so you can all see that this is real and not sim.

[Traderbeauty]

you can easily see that the current direction is up- we see higher highs and higher lows and unless that changes you should not follow me and go short.

right now you should long on every retracement to 62 or 78

http://i.imgur.com/xOFyPt6.jpg

[Traderbeauty]

http://s30.postimg.org/jlxp5azvl/EPH6_Primary_Analysis_Feb_01_1910_PM_6_hour.png

 

Hi TB, here's my Fibs, my bias is long on 38 and prev. Week VA to target 50 and 61.8 LVN

How does it fit into your view?

I like yuo fibs but i dont think this is the right leg

i think we just have a small retracement and a continuation up to at least 1953.5 ( where i have my next short ) but most likely to 1988.75 which is also a previous support that now turned into a resistance.

so watch these numbers and lets see how good the prediction is

jane

 

http://i.imgur.com/S08HxBI.jpg

[Traderbeauty]

just so you see how well my method is working ( most of the time lol )

i virtually went long now at 1918.75 first target is at least 1940 but most likely 1946 - so we are talking about almost 30 points without any indicators - just fibs.

obviously i am not going to sit here and watch and go in live- but we can wake up in the morning and see how wrong i was lol.

take care

jane

 

http://i.imgur.com/5B8UwBQ.jpg

[traderin]

Do a specific instrument will have its own harmonic swing like fib's . i mean respected %percentage . do anyone have any idea on this ?

[Traderbeauty]

so just came to check the market and my virtual entry that was 1918 has gone up to 1926 which is 8 points so far- not bad so far.

in real time i would exit some positions and put a breakeven stop on the rest.

keep in mind that it was done ( this call ) live - in real time ( check the time stamp) and without any indicators- just fibs

good night.