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GBP/USD: outlook for July 18-24

7/18/2016

British pound strengthened by more than 3% during the past week. Sterling recovered because of 2 main reasons: return of political stability to the UK and the Bank of England’s decision not to ease monetary policy in July.

 

Theresa May replaced David Cameron as Britain’s Prime Minister. Although May was a supporter of the UK staying in the European Union, she underlined that “Brexit means Brexit” and the country will leave the EU. Still, it looks like the leaving will be a long process.

 

British central bank didn’t cut the benchmark interest on Thursday, although such move was already priced in GBP/USD. As a result, traders started closing massive GBP shorts pushing the currency higher. Only one member of the central bank voted for a rate cut. Governor Carney decided to wait for the post0referendum economic data, but gave a strong signal of easing next month.

 

Next week we may see more covering of GBP short positions, which should provide support for the pound. Note, though, that there are serious resistance levels lying ahead: 1.3500 and 1.3830. Taking into account the fact that more monetary stimulus will almost certainly come from the Bank of England in 3 weeks at the August meeting, investors will likely use the pound’s recovery to enter in new short positions. Support is at 1.3120 and 1.3000.

 

In British economic calendar next week pay attention to inflation figures on Tuesday, labor market data on Wednesday and retail sales and public sector net borrowing on Thursday. Only very week figures could drive sterling significantly lower.

 

GBPUSDDaily(5).png

 

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9627

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AUD/USD: outlook for July 18-24

7/18/2016

AUD/USD breached resistance at 0.7570 at the beginning of the past week and spent the rest days consolidating above this level. Australian dollar rose as the nation’s labor market data were rather well showing that employment numbers have risen in recent months. Moreover, political uncertainty in Australia finally ended as the ruling coalition managed to secure majority in the new parliament that will allow it’s to form a government. In addition, the overall market’s risk sentiment improved encouraging demand for Aussie. Data from China was especially helpful.

 

Technically the break above resistance line connecting April and June highs is a positive signal. Not, however, that pairs approaching resistance of the descending 200-week MA in the 0.7700 area. The recent move to the upside isn’t strongly supported by technical indicators. Good data from the United States and some expectations of the Reserve Bank pf Australia’s rate cut in August may put AUD/USD under renewed bearish pressure. The RBA will release July monetary policy meeting minutes on Tuesday. Support is at 0.7600 ahead of 0.7500 and 0.7475.

 

AUDUSDDaily(6).png

 

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9630

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USD/JPY: outlook for July 18-24

7/18/2016

 

It was a week of a 5% correction to the upside in USD/JPY: the pair rose to 106.30 showing the biggest weekly gain since 1999. Yen weakened for 2 reasons. Firstly, former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke met with Japanese authorities fueling speculation that the Bank of Japan might provide "helicopter money", which would involve the central bank directly financing government spending.

 

Secondly, the market’s risk sentiment improved, and demand for Japanese yen as a safe haven currency declined. Britain managed to restore political stability as Theresa May became new Prime Minister, while Chinese data eased some concerns about the nation’s economic slowdown: latest growth, industrial output and retail sales figures exceeded forecasts.

 

Next week there will be few economic data releases in both the US and Japan, so the fundamental picture probably won’t change much.

 

Above 106.60 (200-week MA, downtrend resistance line) resistance is at 107.60 (April 4 lows), 108.60 (100-day MA) ahead of 110.00 (psychological level). Support is at 103.80 and 102.70.

 

 

USDJPYDaily(3).png

 

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9629

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GBP/USD & MPC member's speech: Looking to resume the post-Brexit's bearish bias?

7/18/2016

 

Following a very volatile week for GBP/USD, we'll have today at 08:15 GMT a speech from London by MPC member Martin Weale, whom it's expected to talk about Brexit, and we'll see if he gives further hints about a rate hike or cut in August. It would be interesting to see if Weale can provide that because Cable was profoundly affected by recent positive US economic data that strengthened the US dollar, but bear in mind that the Bank of England noted about low inflation levels.

 

The technical scenario for the pair at H1 chart is giving a strong support located around the 1.3103 level, where we can found the 200 SMA. Above that zone, we can expect a rebound towards the 1.3317 level and a breakout above it will expose the 1.3458, which was a significant resistance during last week, and that will happen if Weale's speech is more hawkish than expected. In the dovish scenario, GBP/USD should consolidate before the 1.3103 to test the historical lows below the 1.2850 mark.

 

GBPUSDH1(3).png

 

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9632

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EUR/USD: the trick of the bears

7/18/2016

EUR/USD is consolidating within 1.1000-1.1750 range on the daily chart. The bears are in control. This may be seen from the fact that the pair breached thw lower border of the medium-term uptrend and then retested it. We recommend selling the pair on its attempts to recover.

 

Screenshot_2016_07_18_07_44_43.png

 

On H1 EUR/USD reached 88.6% of the "Shark" pattern's target. After that there was a correction. The pair's currently finishing to form 5-0 pattern. Recoil from 1.1079 (38.2%), 1.1095 (50%) and 1.1112 (61.8%) will provide a signal for opening short positions.

 

Screenshot_2016_07_18_07_45_01.png

 

Recommendation: SELL 1,1079 SL 1,1150 TP 1,0890; SELL 1095 SL 1,1150 TP 1,0890; SELL 1,1112 SL 1,1150 TP 1,0890

 

EUR

 

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9633

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GBP/USD: the bulls got tired

7/18/2016

 

GBP/USD reached 88.6% of the "Shark" pattern's target. If the bulls fail to return above resistance at 1.3323 in the near term (23.6% Fibo of the last descending wave), the bears will be able to regain control. Trend remains bearish. It's target is at 1.26 (127.2% according to AB=CD). As long as the pair remains below 1.3323, sell pound versus the US dollar.

 

Screenshot_2016_07_18_07_56_28.png

 

On H1 GBP/USD came to the lower border of the short-term bullish channel. Successful test of 1.3167 with the following return to 1.3093 will trigger the "Shark" pattern.Target is at 1.2920.

 

Screenshot_2016_07_18_07_56_48.png

 

Recommendation: SELL 1,3167 SL 1,3267 TP1 1,3017 TP2 1,2920

 

GBP

 

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[url=https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9634]https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9634[/uIRL]

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EUR/USD: "Double Top" bring bears back into the market

7/18/2016

 

18-7-2016-EUR-H4.png

 

The price has faced a resistance at 1.1168, which was strengthened by the 89 Moving Average. Also, there’s a “Double Top” pattern, which brought bears into the market. Finally, sellers reached a support at 1.1015, which led to the current upward correction. Considering a local “V-Bottom” pattern, the pair is likely going to achieve the nearest support at 1.1120. If a pullback from here happens afterwards, there’ll be a chance to see another downward movement in the direction of a support at 1.1001 – 1.0970.

 

18-7-2016-EUR-H1.png

 

As we can see on the one-hour chart, bears got a support at 1.1014, which led to form a “V-Bottom” pattern, so there’s a consolidation under the nearest resistance at 1.1074. Therefore, the market is likely going to rise towards the next resistance at 1.1097 – 1.1120 in the short term. However, if we see a pullback from this area, bears will probably try to return into the market.

 

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9636

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GBP/USD: "Flag" points to a possible intraday upward movement

7/18/2016

 

18-7-2016-GBP-H4.png

 

The pair reached the 55 Moving Average, so we’ve got a “Double Top” pattern, which led to decline towards a support at 1.3116. There’s a local “V-Bottom”, so the market is likely going to get a resistance at 1.3471 in the short term. If a pullback from this level happens later on, bears will probably try to catch a support at 1.3015 – 1.2849.

 

The pair reached the 55 Moving Average, so we’ve got a “Double Top” pattern, which led to decline towards a support at 1.3116. There’s a local “V-Bottom”, so the market is likely going to get a resistance at 1.3471 in the short term. If a pullback from this level happens later on, bears will probably try to catch a support at 1.3015 – 1.2849.

 

18-7-2016-GBP-H1.png

 

There’s a support at 1.3104, which led to form a “Double Bottom”, so the price is consolidating under between Moving Averages. Also, we’ve got a possible local “Flag” pattern, so the pair is likely going to reach a resistance at 1.3399 during the day. Considering a probable pullback from this level, we should keep an eye on a support at 1.3104 – 1.3015 as the next bearish target.

 

 

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9637

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EUR/USD: euro again under the cloud

7/18/2016

 

During Friday's session Eurodollar fell below H4 Ichimoku cloud. The bulls failed to test the upper boundary (Senkou Span B) and decided to give up the struggle. Therefore, trading is now carried under the cloud, in the negative zone.

 

Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-sen cancelled the effect of the golden cross. A cloud still has a negative character. We expect the bears to become more active.

 

Technical levels: support - 1.1030; resistance – 1.1090.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Sell — 1.1080; SL — 1.1100; TP1 — 1.1030; TP2 — 1.1000.

 

01-eurusdh4(7).png

 

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9642

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USD/JPY: the bulls want to attack again

7/18/2016

 

On Friday the currency pair USD/JPY corrected into the Tenkan-Kijun channel. But the bullish sentiment doesn't leave the market. The prices reached the positive region supported by Kijun-sen and in the near future the uptrend may resume.

 

Note, that the golden cross is still actual and the Ichimoku cloud is expanding upward. It’s confirming the strength of the bulls.

 

Technical levels: support – 105.10; resistance – 106.00, 106.40.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Buy — 105.50; SL — 105.40; TP1 — 106.00; TP2 — 106.40.

 

2. Sell — 106.40; SL — 106.60; TP1 — 105.10; TP2 — 104.10.

 

03-usdjpyh4(7).png

 

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9644

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EUR/USD: "Engulfing" helped bears to get up speed

7/18/2016

 

[iG]https://new.fxbazooka.com/img/articles/9649/1807eurusdh4.png[/img]

 

The price has got a resistance on the upper “Window” and the 89 Moving Average. So, we’ve got an “Engulfing” at the local high, which has been strongly confirmed. Therefore, bears are likely going to move on in the short term, but only when the current local correction ends. As we can see on the Daily chart, the last candles seem like an “Engulfing” pattern, so today’s candle is probably going to be black.

 

1807eurusdh1.png

 

Bears have been pushing the market lower and lower. The last “Three Methods” pattern acted as a resistance for several times, so the price is likely going to test the local low once again. If we see a pullback later on, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward movement in the direction of the Moving Averages.

 

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9649

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USD/JPY: unconfirmed “Harami” boosts bullish pressure

7/18/2016

 

1807usdjpyH4.png

 

The last bearish candles haven’t been confirmed, so the market is likely going to reach the upper “Window” in the short term. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’s unconfirmed “Harami”, which makes possible an achievement the nearest resistance line.

 

1807usdjpyH1.png

 

There’s a “Harami” at the local low, but its confirmations is a quite weak. Therefore, if the price gets a support in the 34 Moving Average, there’ll be an opportunity to have a new high shortly.

 

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9650

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USD/CNH rising inside impulse waves (iii), 5 and (3)

7/18/2016

 

USD/CNH rising inside impulse waves (iii), 5 and (3)

Next buy target – 6.7450

USD/CNH continues to rise inside the 3rd minor impulse wave (iii) of the impulse 5 (which is a part of the sharp intermediate impulse wave (3) from April). The active impulse wave (iii) started earlier this month – when the pair reversed up from the upper trendline of the recently broken sharp daily up channel from April (acting as support now after it was broken).

 

USD/CNH is likely to rise further to the next buy target at the strong multi-month resistance level 6.7450 (top of the previous primary impulse wave ① and the forecast price for the completion of the active impulse waves 5 and (3)).

 

 

USDCNH_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Jul-18_1516_PM_(1_day).png

 

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9651

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EUR/USD & German ZEW indicator: Looking to trade below 1.1000?

7/19/2016

 

Today at 09:00 GMT will be released the German ZEW economic sentiment, a survey based on financial experts' assessment of Germany's economy for next six months, in terms of directions. Last reading was very positive, with a rising from 6.4 to 19.2, beating the expectations of 5.1 for June. However, July's forecast is seeing a decline to 8.2 and that could weigh on EUR against other currencies on the Forex market.

 

The H1 chart's view for EUR/USD is sideways, as the pair is still trading around the 200 SMA zone. A pullback can happen towards the 1.1042 level, which is very close to a bullish trend line projected from post-Brexit's low. If ZEW reading is weaker-than-expected, then we could see a decline to the support level of 1.1015. However, if July's release is better than analysts' forecast, we should see a rally beyond 1.1111 resistance zone.

 

EURUSDH1(3).png

 

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9654

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EUR/USD is holding ground

7/19/2016

 

The main currency pair keeps consolidating in the 1.1-1.1175 area. The bulls and the bears are currently fighting around the important level of 1.1072. It corresponds to 23.6% Fibo of the last descending wave.

 

Screenshot_2016_07_19_07_14_04.png

 

On H1 EUR/USD reached 78.6% of the "Shark" pattern's target and then started correcting to 50% of the last bearish wave according to the 5-0 pattern. Close to 1.1095 there's an upper border of the short-term bullish trend, as well as the target at 161,8% according to AB=CD. This means the area of convergence. The inability of the bulls to break above this area will be a signal to open short positions.

 

Screenshot_2016_07_19_07_13_43.png

 

Recommendation: SELL 1095 SL 1,1150 TP 1,0890

 

 

 

EUR

 

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9655

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USD/JPY: the bulls want more

17/19/2016

 

On the daily USD/JPY chart the bulls are getting ready to seize the upper border of the downtrend channel. If they succeed, the odds of the bullish reversal will increase. The buyers' attack is aimed at 127.2% of the Crab pattern target. Close to it there's 38.2% Fibo of the last descending wave. As a result, we may see the convergence area of 108.5/109.00. The closest support is at 104.87.

 

Screenshot_2016_07_19_07_24_54.png

 

On H1 USD/JPY correction to 104.83 (23.6% Fibo of the latest bullish wave), 104.4 (target at 78.6% of the Gartley pattern) and 103.9 (38.2% Fibo) should be used to open long positions.

 

Screenshot_2016_07_19_07_25_11.png

 

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9656

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EUR/USD: new local high is coming soon because of the "Flag"

7/19/2016

 

19-7-2016-EUR-H4.png

 

There’s a “Double Bottom”, which led to the current upward price movement. Also, we’ve got a “Triangle”, so the market is likely going to move up in the direction of the 55 Moving Average. If we see a pullback from this line afterwards, bears will probably try to get a support at 1.1015 – 1.1001.

 

19-7-2016-EUR-H1.png

 

As we can see on the one-hour chart, there’s a flat in progress between a resistance by the Moving Average lines and a support by the level at 1.1057. At the same time, we’ve got a “Flag”, so the pair is likely going to reach the closest resistance area, which is near the local downtrend. However, if bulls be stopped here, there’ll be an opportunity to see a decline towards a support at 1.1024 – 1.1014.

 

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9657

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GBP/USD: bearish "Triple Tops"

7/19/2016

 

19-7-2016-GBP-H4.png

 

The price has formed a “Double Top” pattern, which led to decline towards a support at 1.3116. Nevertheless, there’s a possible “Flag”. If it confirms, the price is likely going to get a support at 1.3116 – 1.3015 in the short term. However, is a pullback from here happens afterwards, bulls will probably try to catch a resistance at 1.3471 – 1.3614.

 

19-7-2016-GBP-H1.png

 

We’ve got a “Triple Top”, so the price is consolidating under the Moving Averages. Therefore, the market is likely going to decline towards a support at 1.3104 during the day. If bears can’t break this level and we see a pullback from it, an upward intraday movement will be on the table.

 

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9658

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EUR/USD: the Euro keeps standing under a cloud

7/19/2016

 

During yesterday's session the Eurodollar traded near the lower boundary of the four-hour Ichimoku cloud. Trades was moderate, in a very narrow range. We pointed to the cross formed by the dead cross and the expanding of the cloud to downward. Therefore we still to expect the resumption of downtrend.

 

Technical levels: support - 1.1030; resistance – 1.1090.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Sell — 1.1070/80; SL — 1.1100; TP1 — 1.1000; TP2 — 1.0950.

 

01-eurusdh4(8).png

 

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9659

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AUD/USD: the Aussie fell into a cloud

7/19/2016

 

The Australian dollar yesterday stood firm over a four-hour Ichimoku cloud. But the Bulls did not want to continue the uptrend – there is a resistance of the Kijun-Sen and Tenkan-sen lines. Today’s morning the Aussie unexpectedly passed their position, falling into the cloudy zone. And now the trades are conducted in the area of 75th figure.

 

Obviously, we will see testing the lower boundary of the cloud so soon.

 

Technical levels: support – 0.7490, 0.7470; resistance – 0.7560.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Buy — 0.7490; SL — 0.7470; TP1 — 0.7560; TP2 — 0.7600.

 

04-audusdh4(7).png

 

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9660

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USD/JPY: the Bulls stumbled on 106.00.

7/19/2016

 

The currency pair USD/JPY kept above the line Tenkan-sen during yesterday’s session and the bulls tried to continue the uptrend. However, in the area of 106.30/40, as we noted earlier, there is a strong resistance that does not pass its higher.

 

Given the local overbought of the market we expect a correction to the Ichimoku cloud.

 

Technical levels: support – 105.10; resistance – 106.00, 106.40.

 

Trade recommendations:

 

1. Sell — 106.00; SL — 106.20; TP1 — 105.10; TP2 — 104.10.

 

03-usdjpyh4(8).png

 

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9661

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EUR/USD: bears is about to deliver a new low

7/19/2016

 

1907eurusdh4.png

 

The main trend is a still bearish. Also, the middle of the last huge black candle has acted as a resistance. However, the last “Engulfing” pattern hasn’t been confirmed, so the market is likely going to test the nearest resistance once again. If we see a pullback from this line, bears will probably try to deliver a new low. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’s a bullish “Harami”, but it hasn’t been confirmed yet. Anyway, bears are likely going to reach the closest support line soon.

 

1907eurusdh1.png

 

The price has been moving up and down in a range of the “Window”. Moreover, there’s a strong support by the 55 Moving Average, but the last candles are so variable. Under this circumstances, the pair is likely going to get a resistance on the 89 Moving Average, which could reverse the price movement in the direction of the last low.

 

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9671

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USD/JPY: "Window" has been waiting for bulls

7/19/2016

 

1907usdjpyH4.png

 

Bulls are very strong, so we don’t have any reversal patterns so far. Also, the price has got a support on the 144 Moving Average, so the market is likely going to reach the nearest “Window” in the short term. As we can see on the Daily chart, the last “Harami” pattern hasn’t been confirmed, which makes possible an achievement of the 34 Moving Average.

 

1907usdjpyH1.png

 

The price found a support on the 13 Moving Average. Moreover, there’s a confirmed “Hammer”, so the pair is likely going to test the last high shortly. If we see a pullback from here, there’ll be a chance to see a local correction towards the Moving Averages.

 

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9672

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EUR/GBP rising inside the minor B-wave

7/19/2016

 

EUR/GBP rising inside the minor B-wave

Next buy target – 0.8500

EUR/GBP continues to rise inside the minor B-wave of the intermediate ABC correction (4) from the start of this month. The active B-wave started earlier last week – when the price corrected up from the support zone lying between the support level 0.8300 and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp intermediate impulse wave (3) from the end of June.

 

EUR/GBP is expected to rise further in the active B-wave toward the next buy target at the resistance level 0.8500 (forecast price calculated for the termination of wave B). Buy stop-loss can be placed below the aforementioned support level 0.8300.

 

EURGBP_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Jul-19_1444_PM_(1_day).png

 

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https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9673

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EUR/AUD rising inside minor impulse wave 3

7/19/2016

 

EUR/AUD rising inside minor impulse wave 3

Next buy targets - 1.4900 and 1.5000

EUR/AUD continues to rise inside the minor impulse wave 3, which started earlier - when the pair reversed up for the support zone lying between the major long-term support level 1.4490 (which reversed the previous waves ©, A and (2), as can be seen from the daily EUR/AUD chart below) and the lower daily Bollinger Band.

 

EUR/AUD is expected to rise further in the active impulse waves 3, (3) and ③ toward the next buy target at the resistance level 1.4900 – the breakout of which can lead to further gains toward the next round resistance level 1.5000.

 

EURAUD_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Jul-19_1459_PM_(1_day).png

 

More:

https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9674

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