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USD/JPY: forecast for October 19-25

 

By Elizabeth Belugina

 

During the past week USD/JPY tested lower levels in the 118.05 area. It happened as traders pulled the expectations of the Federal Reserve’s rate hike further into future. Thus, the greenback lost its main bullish driver. Moreover, demand for the Japanese yen as a safe haven was rather strong. By the end of the week, however, risk sentiment has somewhat improved, and a bullish ‘hammer’ candle was formed on the pair’s daily chart.

 

The US dollar is still supported by the monetary policy divergence between the US and Japan: American economic data became better, and even with the Fed’s rate hike expectations diminished it’s clear that the Unites States will be the first to tighten policy. In addition, Japan lowered its assessment of the economy and industrial production last week. Still, the Bank of Japan’s Governor Kuroda once again sounded optimistic about Japanese economy and inflation on Friday. Japan’s unwillingness to add monetary stimulus is limiting USD/JPY on the upside. As a result, the pair is doomed to continue its sideways movement.

 

Next week Japanese economic calendar is almost empty: it will be the calm before the storm of the Bank of Japan’s meeting on October 30. There will not be many data from the US either. As a result, risk sentiment will be the main market mover. China released weak GDP and industrial production data released on Monday, but negative sentiment was smoothed out by the expectations of additional monetary easing from the People’s Bank of China.

 

The bears failed to make USD/JPY fix below 118.50. It emphasizes the fact that there is demand for the American currency in this area. Further support is at 117.00 (support line since 2012). Resistance is at 120.00, 120.35 and 120.90.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2015/October/15/USDJPY.png

 

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Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for October 20

 

By Elizabeth Belugina

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ph7-qM_Jmb4

 

The market’s risk sentiment was influenced by China. The nation’s Q3 GDP growth slowed down from 7% to 6.9%, the lowest reading since 2009, though slightly above expectations of 6.8%. China’s industrial production growth pace decline from 6.1% to 5.7% (forecast: 6.0%). Fixed asset investment also disappointed. Still, there was no rush in safe havens as the market expects the People’s Bank of China to step in with additional monetary stimulus.

 

On Tuesday pay attention to the US housing data at 12:30 GMT (USD will benefit from a good reading) and the speeches of the FOMC members at 13:00-13:15 GMT and Janet Yellen (15:00 GMT).

 

EUR/USD slid towards 1.1300. The upcoming meeting of the European Central Bank on Thursday creates negative pressure on the euro. We prefer short positions on the euro. Support is at 1.1300, 1.1260 and 1.1215.

 

GBP/USD is once again testing resistance in the 1.5490 area (100-day MA). Support is at 1.5415/00 and as long as it holds we can’t rule out a thrust up to further resistance is at 1.5545 and 1.5600. Below 1.5400 support will be at 1.5380 and 1.5235. The Bank of England’s MPC member McCafferty will speak at 09:45 GMT and Governor Carney will take the stage at 10:00 GMT. Expect more volatility to come. UK labor market data last week were not very bad, so it’s interesting how Carney will comment on that. On Friday MPC member Forbes claimed that a rate hike in Britain would come sooner rather than later.

 

USD/JPY is little changed in the 119.30 area. The expectations of an increase in the Bank of Japan’s monetary stimulus this month have declined and the pair’s recovery will likely be limited. Support is at 119.00, 118.70 and 118.05. Resistance is at 119.65, 120.00 and 120.90.

 

AUD/USD tested 0.7300, but failed to break higher and will likely retreat to lower levels. Negative Chinese data finally sank in. Support is at 0.7235, 0.7200 (strong level) and 0.7160. The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting will be released early on Tuesday. Resistance is at 0.7350, 0.7380 and 0.7440.

 

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EUR/JPY: weekly wave analysis

20 October 2015

 

Roman Petuchov

 

Weekly. Beginning part of the new bullish impulse [3] is now being formed. Let's see the markup on the H4 chart.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/%D0%92%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B9/Petukhov_20Oktober/eurjpy1.PNG

 

H4. After the end of the bullish impulse , we've seen a decline in a new corrective wave [ii]. It will be over this week. Afterwards we'll see a bullish move.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/%D0%92%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B9/Petukhov_20Oktober/eurjpy2.PNG

 

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GOLD: weekly wave analysis

20 October 2015

 

Daily. The pair keeps forming the final part of the long sloping triangle. We see the development of the bullish zigzag [E]. The pair is currently forming the end of this wave.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/%D0%92%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B9/Petukhov_20Oktober/xauusd1.PNG

 

H4. The market is forming the final upwards impulse ©. It seems that in the previous days the pair has formed the wave 4, which looks complete. As a result, in the near term we expect the pair to go up in the wave 5.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/%D0%92%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B9/Petukhov_20Oktober/xauusd2.PNG

 

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Danske Bank: trade signals for Oct 20

 

Open positions:*

 

USD/CHF: Hold SHORT at 0.9540, TAKE PROFIT 0.9302, STOP LOSS 0.9601

 

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 135.60, TAKE PROFIT 133.44, STOP LOSS 136.10

 

EUR/CAD: Hold SHORT at 1.4715, TAKE PROFIT 1.4387, STOP LOSS 1.4855

 

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 183.20, TAKE PROFIT 187.37, STOP LOSS 182.75

 

AUD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7218, TAKE PROFIT 0.7497, STOP LOSS 0.7195

 

Trade ideas:

 

EUR/USD: Possibly SELL

 

USD/JPY: BUY at 118.95, TAKE PROFIT 120.57, STOP LOSS 118.02

 

GBP/USD: BUY at 1.5405, TAKE PROFIT 1.5659, STOP LOSS 1.5315

 

EUR/GBP: SELL at 0.7335, TAKE PROFIT 0.7197, STOP LOSS 0.7400 (revised)

 

EUR/CHF: SELL at 1.0865, TAKE PROFIT 1.0713, STOP LOSS 1.0925

 

NZD/USD: BUY at 0.6745, TAKE PROFIT 0.6937, STOP LOSS 0.6680

 

____________________________________________________________

 

*Danske bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

 

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Trading plan for October 21

 

By Kira Iukhtenko

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zw0nMQlOnr0

 

Forex economic calendar on Wednesday, October 21, is rather light. Pay special attention to the Bank of Canada meeting. Interest rate is expected to be left at 0.5%. However, the press-conference could bring a bunch of negative surprises for the Canadian economy. USD/CAD traded under pressure on Tuesday, but we are ready to go LONG on a fix above 1.3000 and with an initial target at 1.3060. Break higher will confirm an inverse “head-and-shoulders” formation and will be a broader bullish sign. Support lies at 1.2900.

 

Another attractive pair to trade in the coming sessions is GBP/USD. We advise going LONG on a fix above 1.5500 targeting 1.5580 (38.2% Fibonacci). Key support lies at 1.5410/00. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will deliver a speech on Wednesday, while on Thursday the market will focus on the UK retail sales. Upbeat forecast could become a growth driver for the cable.

 

The major event of the week is the European Central bank meeting on Thursday. Rates are expected to stay on hold at 0.05%, while the Mario Draghi could deliver a cart of dovish comments later in the day or even announce an additional QE. EUR/USD break below the trend line at 1.1330 is a good moment to go SHORT. Major support is now seen at 1.1250 – break below will confirm the end of the mid-term bullish phase. Resistance – 55-week MA at 1.1450.

 

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AUD/NZD: buy target - 1.0850

21 October 2015

 

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

  • AUD/NZD reached sell target 1.0700
  • Next buy target - 1.0850

AUD/NZD recently reversed up sharply from the support zone (which also previously reversed the second intermediate wave (2) in May) lying between the support levels 1.0700 (sell target set in our previous forecast for this currency pair) and 1.0600. This support zone was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band. The upward reversal from this support zone stopped the active minor impulse wave 3 (which belongs to the intermediate ©-wave from the middle of September).

 

AUD/NZD is likely to correct up further toward the next buy target at the resistance level 1.0850. Strong support zone remains between price levels 1.0700 and 1.0600.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/DIMA%20CHE/AUDNZD%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Oct-21%200947%20AM%20(1%20day).png

 

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USD/JPY: buy target - 121.00

21 October 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

  • USD/JPY reversed from pivotal support level 118.60
  • Next buy target - 121.00

USD/JPY continues to rise inside the 3rd minor impulse wave – which started previously – when the pair reversed up sharply from the pivotal support level 118.60 (which has been reversing the price from the start of September). The last three upward reversals from this support level created the following Japanese candlestick reversal patterns (highlighted below) – Morning Star, Long-legged Doji and most recently – it created the daily Hammer.

 

USD/JPY is expected to rise further inside the active minor impulse wave 3 (which is a part of the intermediate impulse wave (5) from the end of August) toward the next buy target at the resistance level 121.00.

 

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/DIMA%20CHE/USDJPY%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Oct-21%200953%20AM%20(1%20day).png

 

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Danske Bank: trade signals for October 21

 

Open positions:*

 

EUR/USD: Hold LONG at 1.1350, TAKE PROFIT 1.1495, STOP LOSS 1.1290

 

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 119.60, TAKE PROFIT 120.57, STOP LOSS 119.12

 

USD/CHF: Hold SHORT at 0.9540, TAKE PROFIT 0.9302, STOP LOSS 0.9601 (revised)

 

AUD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7218, TAKE PROFIT 0.7497, STOP LOSS 0.7195

 

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.2970, TAKE PROFIT 1.3177, STOP LOSS 1.2870

 

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 136.22, TAKE PROFIT 133.99, STOP LOSS 136.76

 

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7335, TAKE PROFIT 0.7197, STOP LOSS 0.7400

 

EUR/CAD: Hold SHORT at 1.4715, TAKE PROFIT 1.4387, STOP LOSS 1.4855

 

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 183.20, TAKE PROFIT 187.37, STOP LOSS 183.45

 

NZD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.6745, TAKE PROFIT 0.6937, STOP LOSS 0.6680

 

Trade ideas:

 

GBP/USD: BUY at 1.5405, TAKE PROFIT 1.5659, STOP LOSS 1.5315

 

EUR/CHF: SELL at 1.0865, TAKE PROFIT 1.0713, STOP LOSS 1.0925

 

_____________________________________________________________

 

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

 

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Trading plan for October 22

 

By Kira Iukhtenko

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ytSWdh_ZjE4

 

All the commodity assets traded under pressure on Wednesday. Brent price slipped below 48 dollars per barrel, approaching the local 47 support (September lows). Meanwhile, Bank of Canada left monetary policy unchanged, but lowered economic projections for 2015-2017. As a result, USD/CAD jumped, reaching our recent target at 1.3060. The inverse head-and-shoulders pattern on the H4 chart was confirmed. We recommend going LONG on pullbacks to 1.3070.

 

AUD/USD is currently trading in a short-term bearish channel and approached the 0.7200 support. Go SHORT on a break below 0.7200 targeting 0.7160 initially or sell the Aussie on highs if they happen. We stay bearish below 0.7350.

 

The ECB meeting is the key event to watch on Thursday. We expect to hear dovish comments from the ECB president Mari Draghi, paving the ground for more QE in December. EUR/USD is forecasted to break out from the current sideways channel tomorrow. SELL the pair from 1.1330 targeting 1.1250 initially.

 

GBP/USD is also trading in a flat range these days. We still expect the cable to undertake another push higher, targeting 1.5580. However, do not go LONG before the pair fixes above 1.5500 on the daily chart. UK retail sales are expected to render some support to the pair tomorrow.

 

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GBP/AUD: buy target - 2.1600

22 October 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

 

  • GBP/AUD reached buy target 2.1400
  • Next buy target - 2.1600

GBP/AUD continues to rise after the price recently broke above the resistance level 2.1400, which was set in our previous forecast as the buy target for this currency pair. The breakout of this resistance level is likely to accelerate the active intermediate impulse wave (5) – which started earlier this month, when the pair reversed up with the daily Morning Star reversal pattern from the strong support level 2.0860 (as you can see below).

 

GBP/AUD is expected to rise further in the active waves 1 and (5) toward the next buy target at the resistance level 2.1600 (standing close to the breakout level of the previous daily up channel from May).

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/DIMA%20CHE/GBPAUD%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Oct-22%201009%20AM%20(1%20day).png

 

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AUD/USD: sell target - 0.7100

22 October 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

 

  • AUD/USD falling inside intermediate impulse wave (5)
  • Next sell target - 0.7100

AUD/USD recently reversed down sharply from the resistance level 0.7400, which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The resistance zone near the resistance level 0.7400 was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band, 50% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp downward impulse wave 3 from June and by the upper resistance trendline of the daily up channel from the start of September (which has enclosed the previous ABC wave (4)).

 

AUD/USD is likely to fall further in the active intermediate impulse wave (5) toward the next sell target at the support level 0.7100.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/DIMA%20CHE/AUDUSD%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Oct-22%201015%20AM%20(1%20day).png

 

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Danske Bank: trade signals for October 22

 

Open positions:*

 

EUR/USD: Hold LONG at 1.1350, TAKE PROFIT 1.1495, STOP LOSS 1.1290

 

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 119.60, TAKE PROFIT 120.57, STOP LOSS 119.12

 

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.2970, TAKE PROFIT 1.3177, STOP LOSS 1.2870

 

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 136.22, TAKE PROFIT 133.99, STOP LOSS 136.76

 

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7335, TAKE PROFIT 0.7197, STOP LOSS 0.7400

 

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 183.20, TAKE PROFIT 187.37, STOP LOSS 183.45

 

NZD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.6745, TAKE PROFIT 0.6937, STOP LOSS 0.6680

 

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT at 1.0865, TAKE PROFIT 1.0713, STOP LOSS 1.0895

 

Trade ideas:

 

USD/CHF: BUY at 0.9535, TAKE PROFIT 0.9676, STOP LOSS 0.9473 (revised)

 

GBP/USD: Possibly BUY

 

EUR/CAD: Possibly BUY

 

_____________________________________________________________

 

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

 

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Forex trading plan for October 23

 

By Elizabeth Belugina

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_3IXOVXLF8A

 

The euro slumped on dovish comments of the ECB’s president Mario Draghi on Thursday. Draghi said that the ECB would keep conducting quantitative easing (QE) until September 2016 or longer if necessary. According to Draghi, there is no shortage of the bonds for the ECB to buy. The main bearish statement, which gave such force to the bears, was that the central bank discussed the possibility of the deposit rate cut at its meeting. EUR/USD found some support at 1.1170 (100-day MA). The trend line support since August was breached and now acts as strong resistance in the 1.1250 area. We recommend selling the euro on the pullbacks up. Further support is at 1.1125 and 1.1100 ahead of 1.1015. The euro zone’s flash October manufacturing and services PMIs will be released on Friday (07:00-08:00 GMT). The forecasts project a slight decline in readings.

 

Also note, that the US dollar was strong not only versus the euro, but also against British pound and Japanese yen, as American unemployment claims were at their best readings since 2000. GBP/USD tried to rise above 1.5500 on bright national data: UK retail sales jumped by 1.9% in September (forecast: +0.3%), though August change was revised down to -0.4%. However, after the US data releases cable fell to 1.5400. A close below this level will significantly reduce the possibility of the break to the upside. Focus is on 1.5380 and 1.5330 (200-day MA) on the downside.

 

USD/JPY rose above 120.00, but is going to face a very serious resistance in the 120.90/121.00 zone. Support is at 120.00 and 119.60. AUD/USD was holding above an important support at 0.7200 as the ECB meeting improved the market’s risk sentiment. However, the pull back up may be limited by resistance at 0.7280/0.7300.

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EUR/AUD: sell targets - 1.5200 and 1.5100

23 October 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

 

  • EUR/AUD broke support levels 1.5430 and 1.5320
  • Next sell targets - 1.5200 and 1.5100

EUR/AUD continues to fall strongly inside the active minor impulse wave 3 (which recently reversed down twice from the resistance zone lying between resistance level 1.5800 and 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the previous downward price move from August). This impulse wave then broke the support levels 1.5430 (which reversed the price earlier this month) and 1.5320. The breakout of these support levels was preceded by the breakout of the support trendline of the daily up channel from April – which intensified the bearish pressure on this currency pair.

 

EUR/AUD is likely to fall further in the accelerated downward impulse wave 3 toward the next sell targets at the support levels 1.5200 and 1.5100.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/DIMA%20CHE/EURAUD%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Oct-23%201004%20AM%20(1%20day).png

 

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NZD/CHF: buy target - 0.6800

23 October 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

 

  • NZD/CHF broke pivotal resistance level 0.6500
  • Next buy target - 0.6800

NZD/CHF recently broke sharply above the pivotal resistance level 0.6500 (which reversed the previous minor correction (iv) in August, as you can see below). The breakout of this resistance level was preceded by the breakout of the 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the earlier sharp downward impulse wave from April. The breakout of these resistance levels greatly accelerated the active ©-wave, which belongs to the minor ABC correction 2 from the end of August.

 

NZD/CHF is likely to rise further in the active waves © and 2 toward the next buy target at the resistance level 0.6800 (previous strong support level, which reversed the pair multiple times in May).

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/DIMA%20CHE/NZDCHF%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Oct-23%201006%20AM%20(1%20day).png

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US Dollar: forecast for October 25-30

23 October 2015

By Kira Iukhtenko

 

Last week the US dollar has recovered some ground after the ECB meeting on Thursday. Dovish Mario Draghi’s comments pushed the US Dollar index to the resistance of the “autumn” sideways channel at 96.50. It is too early to predict a longer term recovery, though. Break above 97 points is needed to confirm the bullish reversal.

 

Economic calendar for the new week is full of important releases. The Fed will announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday, while on Thursday we’ll watch the Q3 GDP. PCE index and employment cost index are to be released on Friday.

 

We do not expect these macro data to change the flat trend in USD. According to the futures market, the chance for a rate hike in October is less than 6%. Press conference will be organized only if a policy change takes place.

 

Q3 GBP is forecasted to slow down from 3.9% to about 1.5% on the back of the weaker external demand for the US goods. The only bearish risk for the greenback this week is the quarterly Employment Cost Index – a recovery from a record low of 0.2% would be an upbeat signal for the Fed in December.

 

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Danske Bank: trade signals for October 23

 

Open positions:

 

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7217, TAKE PROFIT 0.7002, STOP LOSS 0.7312

 

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.2970, TAKE PROFIT 1.3218, STOP LOSS 1.2930

 

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7335, TAKE PROFIT 0.7197, STOP LOSS 0.7335 (revised)

 

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 183.20, TAKE PROFIT 188.31, STOP LOSS 184.41

 

NZD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.6745, TAKE PROFIT 0.6937, STOP LOSS 0.6680

 

Trade ideas:

 

GBP/USD: SELL at 1.5420, TAKE PROFIT 1.5201, STOP LOSS .5525

 

EUR/CAD: SELL AT 1.4640, TAKE PROFIT 1.4387, STOP LOSS 1.4750

 

EUR/USD: Possibly SELL at 1.1180/85

 

USD/JPY: Possibly BUY at 120.35/25

 

USD/CHF: Possibly BUY

 

EUR/JPY: Possibly SELL

 

EUR/CHF: Possibly SELL

 

______________________________________________________________

 

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

 

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GBP/USD: forecast for October 26-30

 

By Kira Iukhtenko

 

GBP/USD failed to overcome the 1.5500 resistance on the past week. This is the trend line, connecting August and September highs. Support 1.5410 was broken after the dovish ECB meeting on Thursday. This move negated our bullish forecast for the cable.

 

Break below the 1.5360 support will open the way to 1.5330 (trend support, yellow line on the chart). Break below this mark would confirm a reversal chart pattern. Our medium-term bearish targets will then move to 1.5000.

 

Watch the UK Q3 GDP data on Tuesday – this is the major release in Great Britain this week. Economic growth could have slowed a little. You should also pay attention to the FOMC meeting results on Wednesday and to the US GDP on Thursday. These releases will set the new reality for the cable.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2015/October/22/GBPUSDDaily1.png

 

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EUR/USD: forecast for October 26-30

 

By Elizabeth Belugina

 

EUR/USD fell below 1.1100 in the past week. The pair was hit both by the negative news from the euro area and revival of the market’s demand for the US dollars.

 

The European Central Bank’s President Mario Draghi said that the regulator is open to increasing monetary stimulus and even discussed the possibility of the deposit rate cut. Although Draghi only suggested policy easing in December, the market got wild about it. The decline of the euro, which followed Draghi’s comments, was the biggest since the ECB announced quantitative easing (QE) in January.

 

Next week pay attention to German Ifo business climate index on Monday and flash inflation figures on Friday, as well as at the results of the Federal Reserve’s meeting on Wednesday.

 

From the technical point of view, the euro reached the lower border of the ‘flag’ formation formed after the long-term downtrend. As the flag is a continuation pattern, the single currency now looks very vulnerable for downside. There is scope for an increase in the short positions on the euro.

 

Support levels are 1.1070, 1.1015 and 1.0800. We believe that EUR/USD might need some further catalysts to continue its decent from the current levels like positive US data surprises, more hawkish Fed, weak euro zone’s economic readings. Anyhow, we don’t recommend to buy the euro as the ECB made it clear that it wants weaker currency. We believe that the sellers will materialize around resistance located at 1.1170 and 1.1250. A break below 1.1050 will be also a reason for careful new shorts.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2015/October/15/EURUSDWeekly.png

Weekly EUR/USD

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USD/JPY: forecast for October 26-30

 

By Elizabeth Belugina

 

USD/JPY rose to the upper border of its September-October trading range in the 121.00 area.

 

Dovish comments from the European Central Bank’s Mario Draghi improved the market’s risk sentiment, and demand for the yen as a safe haven declined. In addition, after the ECB hinted at possibility of policy easing in December, the expectations of the additional monetary stimulus from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) have significantly increased.

 

The Bank of Japan will meet on Friday. The meeting will be accompanied by the release of the updated economic and inflation forecasts. So far, Japanese officials have been constantly repeating that there is no need for more easing from the BOJ. Still, remembering the central bank’s surprise move of 2014, the market doesn’t believe these denials.

 

The market will have to wait until of the end of the next week to find out where the BOJ is standing. Until then Japan will release retail sales on Wednesday, industrial production on Thursday and inflation earlier on Friday. Low inflation is the main argument for the Bank of Japan to ease policy. According to the forecasts, Japan’s core inflation probably slipped for a second month in September, while factory output fell for a third month in a row. However, oil prices are now more stable than in the autumn of 2014 and the nation’s labor market is in a rather good shape. This is why the central bank may stay on hold.

 

The Federal Reserve’s meeting on Wednesday will surely have a significant impact on the pair, though the further trend will depend mostly on the Bank of Japan’s decision. Additional stimulus will make USD/JPY skyrocket to 123.00 and higher. Other resistance levels are at 121.76/80, 122.00 and 122.50. If those who expects increase in stimulus get disappointed, the pair will drop, but 117.00 (long-term uptrend support) should limit the decline. Other support levels include 120.00, 119.60 and 118.80.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/tiny/Analytics/2015/October/15/USDJPYDaily.png

Daily USD/JPY

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Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for October 27

 

By Elizabeth Belugina

 

US dollar significantly strengthened during the last week as the ECB gave dovish comments, while the People’s Bank of China reduced interest rates. This week traders are waiting for the results of the Federal Reserve’s meeting on Wednesday (though the rate hike is not expected) and American GDP on Thursday. Demand for USD will likely temper. New home sales released on Monday were a negative surprise. The US will release durable goods orders figures at 12:30 GMT on Tuesday (some improvement after the poor previous release is expected) and consumer confidence index at 14:00 GMT (the forecast is that of a small decline).

 

EUR/USD rose to 1.1050 on Monday, but found resistance there. The markets now expect that the ECB will step up monetary stimulus in December, so any advance in the euro will be limited. German Ifo business climate didn’t impress the market. Resistance is at 1.1100, 1.1140 and 1.1170. Support is at 1.1000, 1.0950 and 1.0900.

 

GBP/USD lowered to support line since the beginning of October. The pair’s trying to fix above the 200-day MA in the 1.5335 area and return to 1.5410/30. Next strong resistance is at 1.5500. Below 1.5300 the sellers will pull the pair down to 1.5200. Next support is at 1.5165. The UK will release preliminary Q3 GDP data at 09:30 GMT. British economic growth is expected to slow down from 0.7% to 0.6%. After a very good retail sales report released last week there’s a chance of positive surprise in British GDP. In this case the pound will strengthen versus other currencies.

 

USD/JPY rose to 121.50. Support is at 120.70 and 120.35. Resistance is at 121.67/80. USD/JPY is supported by the expectations that the Bank of Japan will ease its policy at the end of the week, but before it actually happens, the idea probably won’t be able to drive the pair much above the resistance of September-October range. Short-term outlook is neutral/negative.

 

AUD/USD is still trying to hold above 0.7200 and raise higher. Friday’s high close to 0.7300 remains a resistance: Chinese easing didn’t get an extremely positive effect on the Aussie. Next resistance is the 100-day MA at 0.7320. Next support is at 0.7167 (55-day MA). The next big risk for Australian dollar is Australia’s inflation data on Wednesday.

 

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Forex Analytics

CAD/JPY: sell targets - 91.00 and 90.00

27 October 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

 

  • CAD/JPY reversed from resistance zone
  • Next sell targets - 91.00 and 90.00

CAD/JPY continues to fall after the price earlier reversed down from the strong resistance zone lying at the intersection of the resistance level 92.60 (which has been reversing the price for the last few trading days) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the previous sharp downward impulse wave from the middle of June. The latest two downward reversals from this resistance zone stopped the previous corrections 2 and (2) (as can be seen below).

 

CAD/JPY is likely to fall further in the active impulse waves 3 and (3) (which belong to the primary downward impulse wave ③ from June) toward the next sell targets at the next support levels 91.00 and 90.00.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/DIMA%20CHE/CADJPY%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Oct-27%201007%20AM%20(1%20day).png

 

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USD/CAD: buy target 1.3300

27 October 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

 

  • USD/CAD reached buy target 1.3100
  • Next buy target 1.3300

USD/CAD has been rising strongly in the last few trading sessions - breaking through the resistance level 1.3100, which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of this resistance level accelerated the active minor impulse wave 3 – which started recently – when the price reversed up from support zone surrounding the pivotal support level 1.2850 (as can be seen below).

 

USD/CAD is currently approaching the resistance level 1.3200. If the price breaks this resistance level - USD/CAD can then rise further to the next buy target at the next resistance level1.3300.

http://fxbazooka.com/upload/freelance/tiny/DIMA%20CHE/USDCAD%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Oct-27%201004%20AM%20(1%20day).png

 

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