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MARKET NEWS

 

Oct. 6: MARKET VIDEOREVIEW

 

  • USD index at 4-year high on solid U.S. payroll gains, Japanese stocks bounced;
  • Bank holiday in Australia and China;
  • EUR, GBP, AUD: consolidate around the Friday’s close;
  • NZD/USD dipped to $0.7710, but recovered;
  • USD/JPY dipped to 109.50.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ek1e_5RCXV4

 

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Forex Analytics

 

Trading plan for Oct. 7

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=53qeHdizH2Q

 

EUR/USD found some support around $1.2500 (psychological level, 74.6% Fibo) and recovered a bit on Monday despite bad data from Europe. Data release showed that German factory orders made a sharp decline of 5.7% in August. Sentix Investor Confidence was also negative. At the same time, US dollar is broadly weaker versus its peers as it’s long overbought, and it’s harder for the USD bulls to push up. Tomorrow watch German industrial production (06:00 GMT) and French budget balance (06:45 GMT) – forecasts are weak, but EUR/USD may hold on as the biggest market mover is the FOMC meeting minutes due on Wednesday. The most important piece of data from America tomorrow will be the speeches of Kocherlakota and Dudley (17:20 and 19:00 GMT) – these are the dovish members of the Fed, so their comments will be potentially USD-negative. We think that the pair will be trading in the $1.2500/1.2650 area. It’s reasonable to sell at the top of this range with stops above $1.2700.

 

Japanese yen has recovered some ground on Monday: USD/JPY fell back to 109.10 yen in the European trade. Bank of Japan holds its monetary policy meeting on Tuesday. Policy is widely expected to remain unchanged. Markets will pay special attention to the BOJ press conference: will the Central Bank change the tone? We don’t expect too much from this meeting: the economy still remains weak, but, according to the recent speculation, the regulator is more likely to change the terms of achieving the inflation target than the monetary policy. However, any dovish comments will push USD/JPY higher. Resistance lies at 110.00 and 110.60, while support – at 109.10/00 and 108.20.

 

GBP/USD recovered from the 11-month low of $1.5950, but remains capped by the $1.6000 mark. The short-term picture remains clearly bearish below $1.6050. Great Britain is scheduled to release Manufacturing Production data on Tuesday, 8:30 GMT (forecast 0.2% vs. prior 0.3%). Market participants remain indecisive ahead of the FOMC minutes (Wednesday) and the BOE policy decision (Thursday), but we expect the cable to extend the downside in the coming days. Next support lies at $1.5900 and $1.5840.

 

AUD/USD recovered from the recent lows, but is still under pressure of the Ichimoku Cloud on H4. The market expects the RBA to sound dovish at its tomorrow meeting. If it does, the pair will test support at $0.8660, $0.8615 and $0.8600 – the base scenario. Resistance is at $0.8665, $0.8830 and $0.8870.

 

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MARKET NEWS

 

Oct. 7: MARKET VIDEOREVIEW

 

USD: edged higher, Monday’s decline is seen as profit-taking. Watch the speeches of Kocherlakota and Dudley (17:20 and 19:00 GMT).

 

EUR: edged down after gaining more than 1% on Monday. Watch German industrial production (06:00 GMT) and French budget balance (06:45 GMT).

GBP/USD recovered to $1.6070, markets await manufacturing production at 8:30 GMT

 

USD/JPY slipped below 109.00 yen

 

BOJ: policy unchanged, notes weakness in production, CPI will stay around 1.25% for some time

AUD: The Reserve Bank of Australia kept rates unchanged, mentioned moderate growth in economy, there will be a period of stability in interest rates; no new measures to cool the housing market. According to RBA, AUD remains high by historical standards.

 

NZD/USD: under pressure, but holds above $0.7800, NZIER Business Confidence down from 32 to 19

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jrx1p_INeFc

 

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Oct. 7: key option levels

 

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

EUR/USD: $1.2550, $1.2595/1.2600 (large), $1.2635 (large), $1.2650, $1.2700, 1.2730 (large), $1.2750 (large);

 

GBP/USD: $1.6050 (large), $1.6085 (large);

 

USD/JPY: 108.40 (large), 110.50/55 (large);

 

USD/CAD: 1.1150/55, 1.1200, 1.1225, 1.1250;

 

NZD/USD: 0.7900, 0.7925;

 

EUR/GBP: 0.7780.

 

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Trading plan for Oct. 8

 

EUR/USD rose to $1.2650 on Monday almost compensating the Friday’s selloff and finishing the day close to the high. In addition, the euro is holding pretty well in the past 2 days despite weak data from the euro area. This actually means that the pair was seriously oversold and support at $1.2500 is really strong. As a result, the odds are that the pair may test higher levels. A powerful fix above $1.2570 and inside the H4 Ichimoku Cloud will be a bullish signal. The fate of the pair depends on the FOMC meeting minutes due tomorrow (18:00 GMT): there’s the risk of the market’s disappointment and lower USD on this release. In such case EUR/USD may test $1.2800 (previous channel support). Support is at $1.2570. Below this level we’ll once again turn bearish.

 

GBP/USD hovers slightly below the $1.6100 mark in the late European trade. The pair holds below the trend line resistance, descending from the local $1.6520 high. Despite this week’s recovery, we remain bearish below the $1.6300 mark and expect the downside to continue after a few days of consolidation.

 

Japanese yen keeps on strengthening: USD/JPY dipped to 108.20 in Europe. As expected, the BOJ left policy unchanged and gave no clear signals on its policy intentions, but the recent Abe’s remarks on cheap currency are a bearish factor for the pair. Fix below the 108.00 mark will open the way to our initial bearish target at 107.30. Watch the Japanese current account data on Wednesday (surplus is expected to widen towards 0.19T).

 

AUD/USD has reached the target at $0.8330 (top of the H4 Cloud), which we outlined yesterday as our alternative scenario. Despite the expectation, the RBA didn’t make many dovish comments. In addition, there’s a general setback in the USD today. There are bullish signs from Ichimoku. Above $0.8830 resistance is at $0.8850 (a still descending 100-period MA), $0.8890, $0.8925 and $0.9000. Support is at $0.8750 and $0.8650.

 

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MARKET NEWS

 

Oct. 8: MARKET VIDEOREVIEW

 

USD: Dovish comments of the Fed member Kocherlakota (“falling unemployment is no reason to raise rates”). Market is expecting the release of the FOMC minutes (18:00 GMT).

 

EUR: Bundesbank President Weidmann criticizes ECB’s stimulus measures.

 

GBP/USD: upside capped at $1.6120

 

USD/JPY: found a local support at 107.70, Japan’s current account surplus below forecast

 

AUD: Australian Bureau of Statistics is going to have to revise the July and August employment data (August figures were exceptionally high).

 

AUD: Chinese HSBC Services PMI edged down reinforcing expectations of further stimulus measures

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fLRsGBWPEro

 

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MARKET NEWS

8 October 2014

 

IMF reduced growth forecasts

 

FXBAZOOKA.com – The International Monetary Fund reduced its global growth forecast for this year from 3.4% to 3.3%, warning of weakness in the euro zone, Japan and big emerging markets such as Brazil.

 

The IMF sees a 30% chance that the euro zone will fall into deflation and a nearly 40% risk that it will slide into a recession over the next year. Data on Tuesday signaled Japan may already be in a mild recession.

 

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Oct. 8: key option levels

 

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

EUR/USD: $1.2600 (large);

 

GBP/USD: $1.6130 (large);

 

USD/JPY: 108.00 (large), 108.50 (large), 108.90 (large), 109.50/55 (large);

 

USD/CAD: 1.1150 (large);

 

AUD/USD: $0.8770, $0.8815;

 

EUR/GBP: 0.7750, 0.7800.

 

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http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1808

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Forex Analytics

 

Trading plan for Oct. 9

 

The main theme of Wednesday was risk aversion and concerns about global growth. Still EUR/USD bulls are trying to stick to the $1.2670 area as the market awaits the release of the FOMC meeting minutes (18:00 GMT) later today. Main resistance is located at $1.2700. Given the better performance of euro in the past two days, there’s still a chance of $1.2790/1.2800 if the Fed is dovish. Support is at $1.2630, $1.2600 and $1.2570. On Thursday watch the ECB President Mario Draghi speak at 15:00 GMT. We expect dovish comments from Draghi as the recent data from the euro area was grim.

 

GBP/USD consolidates below the $1.6120 resistance on Tuesday. The cable bounced from the $1.5950 support on Friday, but the upside remains contained by the trend line resistance, descending from $1.6520. On Tuesday we’ve seen a long-legged candle – market remains uncertain about pushing higher. Fix above $1.6120 could open the way to $1.6230 (July-October resistance). However, we still remain bearish in the medium term. The Bank of England will likely remain on hold on Thursday’s meeting – the meeting minutes later in the month are going to be a more important release.

 

USD/JPY consolidates around the 108.00 mark. According to our forecast, a daily fix below this level will trigger a more rapid bearish correction with a target of 106.00/105.80. Watch the core machinery orders data tomorrow - growth is expected to have slowed down. Next resistance lies at 108.50 and 109.00 yen.

 

AUD/USD is trading sideways between resistance at $0.8830 and support at $0.8750. Aussie has to overcome $0.8830 to rise to $0.8885 and $0.8930. Note that Aussie will be vulnerable for decline on Australian labor market data due tomorrow (00:30 GMT), and it makes sense to sell after the FOMC. Watch for a break of support at $0.8750 on the downside for a decline to $0.8660 with next target at $0.8605.

 

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MARKET NEWS

 

Oct. 9: MARKET REVIEW

 

Risk sentiment: Asian shares rose on dovish FOMC meeting minutes.

 

USD: broadly weakened as the Fed was concerned about the downside risks to the global economy and USD’s strength, and investors pushed back bets for when the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates.

 

EUR/USD: at $1.2570 ahead of Draghi.

 

GBP/USD: extends recovery towards $1.6200, BOE policy announcement comes at 11:00 GMT.

 

USD/JPY trades below 108.00 yen.

 

AUD/USD: higher despite decline in employment.

 

NZD/USD recovered to $0.7950.

 

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http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1812

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Trading plan for Oct. 10

 

US dollar remained weaker on Thursday after a day earlier the Fed released dovish FOMC meeting minutes. However, concerns about other economies – primarily the euro area – start to return, and demand for USD on Friday may be higher.

 

EUR/USD reached $1.2790, but then retreated below $1.2750 ahead of Mario Draghi’s speech today at 19:00 GMT as there’s the risk of dovish comments. Support of the current short-term uptrend is located at $1.2690. A decline below this point will make the pair slide below $1.2600. As long as the pair’s above this level, the near-term outlook will remain positive. Further resistance is at $1.2830, $1.2860 and $1.2900.

 

AUD/USD reached the levels just below $0.8890. This corrective move up looks a bit weak, but support is at $0.8830 and $0.8795 (top of the H4 Cloud), and the bulls will retain chances until the pair’s trading above the latter. Lower, however, the negative pressure will intensify and a decline below $0.8730 will be a sure sell. Next resistance is at $0.8930.

 

GBP/USD pushed to $1.6225 in Europe before returning back below the $1.6200 mark. As it was expected, the Bank of England left policy unchanged on today’s meeting. Policy announcement came out together with the news that the strong rally in the UK housing prices has started to wane, reducing inflationary pressures. However, the medium-term market sentiment turned bullish by the end of the week due to the dovish Fed’s minutes. Our idea is to buy the cable on dips targeting $1.6240 and than $1.6300. This area remains strongly resistive these days. UK trade deficit is expected to show contraction on Friday – strong data could render support for GBP.

 

USD/JPY remains in a downward channel and holds below the 108.00 mark. The pair is testing the levels below 23.8% Fibonacci from the July-September rally. The current market setup is clearly bearish; we expect a correction towards our targets at 107.30 and 107.00. Don’t miss the BOJ meeting minutes and Tertiary Industry Activity data on Friday.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_dhsDAVZ0gc

 

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http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2579

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MARKET NEWS

 

Oct. 13: MARKET REVIEW

 

Risk sentiment: Asian stocks fell amid concern global growth is slowing.

 

JPY, USD, CAD: bank holidays.

 

AUD rose from almost 4-year minimum as China reported an unexpected pick-up in imports and better-than-forecast export growth.

 

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http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1816

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Trading plan for Oct. 14

 

The European currency started the week in a positive mode with EUR/USD recovering from $1.2600 to $1.2700. The next question is whether this recovery will be long-lived. Note that Germany is due to release ZEW economic sentiment index at 09:00 GMT tomorrow, and a decline from 6.9 to 0.2 is expected. What’s more, industrial production is expected to plummet by 1.5%. This is the reason why we recommend selling EUR/USD on rallies. The pair is expected to retest the $1.2500 support to the downside in the nearest future

 

GBP/USD has also recovered some ground on Monday, but the buying interest remains shy. The pair fails to overcome the $1.6100 resistance for now. The overall trend for the cable also remains bearish and could be accelerated by the inflation data releases on Tuesday (8:30 GMT). CPI index is expected to slow to 1.4% y/y (the lowest level since the year 2009). Next support is seen at $1.6000 and $1.5950. However, the sellers should beware the labor data on Thursday: forecasts are upbeat.

AUD/USD keeps on consolidating above the last week’s $0.8640 low with the upside capped at $0.8900 for now. On Tuesday Australia is scheduled to release NAB business confidence and business conditions data for September (00:30 GMT). The figures are expected to show economic resilience.

 

USD/JPY opened the week with a bearish gap and touched the new monthly lows around 107 yen. We maintain a short position on the pair targeting 106.00 and 105.60. Major resistance is now seen at 107.50.

 

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http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2609

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MARKET NEWS

 

Oct. 14: MARKET REVIEW

 

Risk sentiment: traders are concerned as global equities decline. S&P500 slid to 5-month low.

 

EUR/USD: fell from $1.2767 to support at $1.2715 ahead of the European data release at 09:00 GMT (negative forecasts).

 

GBP/USD: awaits inflation data at 8:30 GMT, currently sits at $1.6070.

 

AUD/USD: rose testing levels above $0.88 as the People’s Bank of China cut its 14-day repo rate, again spurring hopes of more broad-based easing + iron ore prices stabilized a bit.

 

NZD/USD: pushed a little higher, capped at $0.7900.

 

USD/JPY: recovered from 106.70 to 107.00. Japanese PPI: 3.5% vs. 3.6% expected.

 

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http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1822

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Oct. 14: key option levels

 

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

EUR/USD: $1.2600 (large), 1.2625 (large), 1.2650 (large), 1.2700 (large), 1.2750 (large);

 

GBP/USD: $1.6100 (large);

 

USD/JPY: 106.85/107.00 (large), 107.50 (large), 107.75 (large), 108.00 (large)

 

AUD/USD: $0.8780 (large), $0.8800 (large), $0.8855;

 

USD/CAD: 1.1150 (large) 1.1260/65 (large);

 

NZD/USD: $0.7940 (large);

 

EUR/GBP: 0.7900, 0.7960/65 (large).

 

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http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1823

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Trading plan for Oct. 15

 

US dollar is trying to stop its correction down versus the major currencies, but to return to the confident bullish trend it needs good figures from the United States, but the forecasts for tomorrow’s releases are not very optimistic. At 12:30 GMT watch American retail sales, PPI and Empire State Manufacturing Index.

 

EUR/USD fell from $1.2667 to the $1.2650 area on a bunch of very negative data from the euro area. Here’s the support line connecting the lows of the 2 previous weeks, 50% of the October move and the support of the H4 Ichimoku. Above here the picture looks consolidative. The pair’s swinging up and down as both EUR and the USD are pressured by the negative factors. We still prefer selling on the upside. Resistance is at $1.2700, $1.2735 and $1.2760. Further support is at $1.2610, $1.2600 and $1.2750. Tomorrow watch the speeches of Mario Draghi at 07:00 and 14:00 GMT.

 

AUD/USD was limited by the 20-day MA and the $0.8800 handle. The risk sentiment is negative, but the USD lacks certainty about American economy recovery and is unable resume its confident appreciation. The pair’s in the consolidative mode. Resistance is at $1.8750, $0.8770 and $0.8800. Support is at $0.8713, $0.8690 and $0.8660. Tomorrow Aussie will be driven by Australian new motor vehicle sales (00:30 GMT) and Chinese inflation data (01:30 GMT).

 

The sharp decline in inflation pulled GBP/USD down to $1.5900 mark – this is a new 11-month low. CPI fell much more than expected from 1.5% to 1.2%, pulled down by reduced food and transportation prices. This is the lowest level since September 2009. Weak inflation data has taken the question of a sooner BOE rate hike off the table and paved the ground for the new lows in the cable. Labor data on Wednesday could become the only bright spot in the recent UK news flow: some improvement is projected. However, the upside will likely remain limited by the $1.6200 mark. Next support is seen at $1.5850 and $1.5720.

 

USD/JPY hit a new 1-month low of 106.70 – this is 38.2% Fibonacci from the July-September rally. Safe-haven demand might remain elevated in the coming days. Downbeat US retail sales (forecast – negative) could increase the selling pressure on the market. The pair will likely hit our bearish target of 105.60 in the coming days, so it’s still not too late to jump onto the bearish train. Resistance lies at 107.20, 107.50 and 107.90.

 

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MARKET NEWS

 

Oct. 15: MARKET REVIEW

 

Demand for riskier assets remains limited amid lower growth forecasts globally, especially in Europe.

 

EUR/USD: edged down ahead of Mario Draghi’s speeches at 07:00 and 18:00 GMT.

 

GBP/USD: new 11-month low of 1.5870, awaits labor market data at 8:30 GMT.

 

AUD tested $0.8675 on the downside, but then returned to $0.8736: better Westpac consumer confidence & new motor vehicle sales; China’s consumer inflation slowed to a level not seen since 2010 (some speculation that Chinese policymakers may need to announce further selective easing).

 

NZD/USD: watch the Global Dairy trade results later in the day.

 

USD/JPY higher at 107.20.

 

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http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1824

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Key option levels (Oct. 15)

 

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

EUR/USD: $1.2605 (large), $1.2610 (large), $1.2700 (large), $1.2715 (large), $1.2735/40 (large);

 

USD/JPY: 106.55, 106.80, 107.00 (large), 107.20 (large), 108.10/15 (large);

 

AUD/USD: $0.8800 (large);

 

USD/CAD: 1.1150;

 

EUR/GBP: 0.7960 (large).

 

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http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1825

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Trading plan for Oct. 16

 

US dollar slumped in all major currency pairs. The market’s confidence in the outperformance of American economy was violently dashed. Retail sales in the world’s leading economy fell, while producer prices declined. It’s a serious blow for the expectations that the Fed will raise rates earlier than expected. Later today the Fed will release its report on the economic conditions – Berge book (18:00 GMT) – and this release will be closely watched as well. Tomorrow there will be more important publications in the US, forecasts are mixed. Also watch for comments from the FOMC members Plosser and Kocherlakota – one is a hawk, another is a dove.

 

EUR/USD spiked up approaching $1.2900, but then pulled back to $1.2800. If the pair fails to close above $1.2790, it will be a bearish sign. Mario Draghi will make another speech later today, and stronger euro is not what the ECB needs. Support is at $1.2750, $1.2700 and $1.2650. Resistance at $1.2830 guards the way up to $1.2900.

 

GBP/USD jumped to $1.6050, supported by the upbeat UK labor market data and the dramatic US figures. Traders remain indecisive about the further direction of the cable: on Wednesday the pair has offset the major part of its weekly losses. The price is testing the Oct. 10 low at the time of writing. All eyes are now on the bag of the US data releases on Thursday. More negative surprises could lift the price back towards the $1.6300 resistance. Support lies at $1.5950 and $1.5875.

 

USD/JPY plummeted to 105.10 on the US data, but has quickly recovered some ground. There are no more data releases scheduled in Japan this week, so watch the US economic news. In the current conditions we would forecast more downside to come. Next support to watch lies at 104.50. The picture remain bearish below the 109.00 mark.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=73-AeMTq7H8&noredirect=1

 

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MARKET NEWS

 

Oct. 16: MARKET REVIEW

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7j_aSBzxIII

 

Risk sentiment: Asian shares were off session lows but still under pressure as concerns about world economic growth sent US Treasury yields down and Japanese stocks tumbling. Chinese bank lending data was much better than expected, a sign that demand for credit may be picking up, though a drop in China’s foreign exchange reserves in the third quarter suggested speculative money outflows.

 

EUR: Yesterday’s speech of Mario Draghi gave little hints about the ECB’s plans. Watch final CPI at 09:00 GMT (priced in).

 

USD: More data later today: Unemployment Claims (12:30 GMT), Industrial Production (13:15 GMT), Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (14:00 GMT).

 

GBP/USD had a volatile US session, stays in the $1.5880/6060 range.

 

USD/JPY holds above 105.60 following the yesterday’s dip.

 

NZD/USD jumped to $0.7990 on Global Dairy Trade auction results: prices up by 1.4%. Business NZ Manufacturing Index: 58.1 vs. 57.0 expected.

Oil found some support on a weaker dollar.

 

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http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1833

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Key option levels (Oct. 16)

 

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

EUR/USD: $1.2600 (large), $1.2640 (large), $1.2800, $1.2900 (large);

 

USD/JPY: 105.75 (large), 106.50 (large), 107.00 (large), 107.55 (large);

 

USD/CAD: 1.1200 (large);

 

AUD/USD: $0.8710 (large), $0.8750/65 (large), $0.8800 (large);

 

NZD/USD: $0.7750 (large), $0.8135/45 (large);

 

EUR/GBP: 0.7980, 0.8010, 0.8060, 0.8150 (large);

 

EUR/JPY: 134.50 (large), 136.50 (large).

 

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http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1834

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Trading plan for Oct. 17

 

EUR/USD spiked down towards $1.2700, but then recovered to $1.2750 area. This time data from the US showed solid growth. The bearish pressure will lift only if the pair rises above $1.2790 (Oct. 9 high). Note that the market is still in doubts about the American economy and the Fed’s policy. The odds are that euro once again tests $1.2700 and $1.2685/60. We’ll consider selling on recoveries to $1.2790. Tomorrow watch the German Bundesbank President Weidmann speech and the US figures, as well as Yellen’s speech.

 

GBP/USD is still seeking a direction: the price hit a new daily low at 1.5940, but recovered back towards 1.6000 rather quickly. The price could jump towards 1.6150 on the new dovish signals from US, but the medium term picture still remains bearish. Support lies at 1.5950, 1.5900 and 1.5870. There are no releases in Britain scheduled for tomorrow. Next week will be much more eventful in the UK, so we’ll be waiting for clearer signals.

 

USD/JPY recovered towards the 106.00 mark on Wednesday following the yesterday’s dip to 105.10. However, in the current conditions we expect the upside to be capped by 106.80. The next bearish target lies at 104.50.

 

AUD/USD corrected down to the lower border of the channel in the area of $0.8685, and is trying to recover. There will be no news in Australia, so this time the pair’s recovery may be limited. Watch for resistance at $0.8770, $0.8815 and $0.8850. Support is at $0.8700 and $0.8675.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w2c8qYk6UqU

 

More:

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/2640

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MARKET NEWS

 

Oct. 16: MARKET REVIEW

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7j_aSBzxIII

 

Risk sentiment: Asian shares were off session lows but still under pressure as concerns about world economic growth sent US Treasury yields down and Japanese stocks tumbling. Chinese bank lending data was much better than expected, a sign that demand for credit may be picking up, though a drop in China’s foreign exchange reserves in the third quarter suggested speculative money outflows.

 

EUR: Yesterday’s speech of Mario Draghi gave little hints about the ECB’s plans. Watch final CPI at 09:00 GMT (priced in).

 

USD: More data later today: Unemployment Claims (12:30 GMT), Industrial Production (13:15 GMT), Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (14:00 GMT).

 

GBP/USD had a volatile US session, stays in the $1.5880/6060 range.

 

USD/JPY holds above 105.60 following the yesterday’s dip.

 

NZD/USD jumped to $0.7990 on Global Dairy Trade auction results: prices up by 1.4%. Business NZ Manufacturing Index: 58.1 vs. 57.0 expected.

 

Oil found some support on a weaker dollar.

 

More:

http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1833

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MARKET NEWS

 

Key option levels (Oct. 16)

 

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

EUR/USD: $1.2600 (large), $1.2640 (large), $1.2800, $1.2900 (large);

 

USD/JPY: 105.75 (large), 106.50 (large), 107.00 (large), 107.55 (large);

 

USD/CAD: 1.1200 (large);

 

AUD/USD: $0.8710 (large), $0.8750/65 (large), $0.8800 (large);

 

NZD/USD: $0.7750 (large), $0.8135/45 (large);

 

EUR/GBP: 0.7980, 0.8010, 0.8060, 0.8150 (large);

 

EUR/JPY: 134.50 (large), 136.50 (large).

 

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http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1834

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MARKET NEWS

 

Oct. 20: MARKET REVIEW

 

Pessimism over the economy was tempered and risk sentiment improved.

 

USD: San Francisco Fed President Williams and Boston President Eric Rosengren said that the Fed should end QE as planned at this month.

 

EUR/USD: on the upside in the area of $1.2760, but below last week’s high at $1.2886.

 

GBP/USD trades unchanged at $1.6100.

 

USD/JPY gapped higher at 107.20, Nikkei up as GPIF will lift ratio of domestic stocks to about 25%.

 

AUD/USD up to $0.8787: China announced its intention to inject $33B of 3-month loans into banks.

 

NZD/USD up by 40 pips to $0.7960.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HB-uYHbNQic

 

More:

http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/1835

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