Elliott Wave count from Flynchenberg

[Flynchenberg]

The reasons why I think wave 1 might be over and now cable need corrective bounce before further continuation in wave 3 are:

- five waves down from 1.6300 high. Wave 5 is expdanded.

- bullish divergence on H4 and Daily timeframe on Awesome Oscilator, RSI and MFI

-gap is not fully covered

- typical for wave 5 over-throw from acceleration channel on H4

- Fibonacci Time Cluster on 04.03.2013 with highest score between 04:00 - 12:00.

- support from Gann Fan line on Weekly chart

-Gortzel Cycle algorythm is pointing upward

- COT Sentiment futures data suggest that commercial hedgers had inceresed the long posions over large speculators and small traders

 

The reasons why I think there might be one more wave down (about 130pips are):

-market must confuse everyone

-last wave down might be wave (iii) of (5) due to no bullish divergence on H1 yet

- 61% Fibo expansion @ 1.4877 might be hit before bounce

-Weak Reverse (1/8) level @ 1.4892 might be hit before reverse

 

Nevertheless, one should try to buy some GBP/USD with tight stop.

 

In bigger view, if wave 1 is finished then the min retracement could reach previous wave four of a lesser degree and this one is @ level 1.5313 that is very close to the 23.6%Fibo retracement.

 

The suggested pattern of wave 2 correction is 5-3-5 ZigZag simple correction if 23%Fibo will hold as a top of wave 2 or WXY Double ZigZag if 23% will be broken to the upside.

 

 

Seb

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-FEn8NdzeRk8/UTIrDX95JnI/AAAAAAAAX_4/sp5EAAgdxVc/s1600/gbpusd_w1.gif

 

 

PS: More on my blog at elliottfxtrader.blogspot.com