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Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX


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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 04.04.2016

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Last week ended with highly anticipated Jobs report from the United States. The data, consisting of the Average Hourly Earnings, Unemployment Rate, and Non-Farm Employment Change releases, gives a complete picture of the state of the United States employment market.

 

The Non-Farm Payroll release, representing a change in the number of employed people during the previous month apart from farming industry, has positively surprised investors with growth to 215.000 working places compared to 206.000 expected. The number has however declined in parallel with the March results of 245.000.

 

The next component of the Jobs report, presented to the markets by the Average Hourly Earnings, also did well as it showed an upturn of 0.3%. Keeping in mind that the previous month results were -0.1%, and market consensus expected just 0.2% number, this outcome was quite outstanding.

 

The Unemployment rate announcement, however, calmed down the excitement, revealing a rise to 5.0%, which was the first expansion since the June last year. That could probably explain that the US dollar stayed unaffected to usually such a significant release, with the US dollar index remaining to trade around 94.50 mark, being its five-month low.

 

Proceeding to this trading week, it began with the news from Australia. Here, the monthly building approvals number has indicated a significant rise to 3.1% from -6.6% of the March outcome. The retail sales dropped to from 0.3% to 0.0% this month. The AUDUSD nevertheless remained trading at its nine-month high.

 

Later on, at 9:30 am London time the UK monthly Construction PMI data will come into the spotlight. The indicator of the economic health of the construction industry, this time, is expected to increase slightly to 54.3, up from 54.2 of last time. The number higher than forecasted could likely give support to the weakening British Pound.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EURUSD

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/EURUSDM3004042016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1.1455

 

Target 2: 1.1330

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0084

 

Daily control level: 1.1330

 

 

 

GBPUSD

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/GBPUSDM3004042016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1.4365

 

Target 2: 1.4075

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0146

 

Daily control level: 1.4425

 

 

 

 

USDJPY

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/USDJPYM3004042016.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 112.50

 

Target 2: 110.65

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.95

 

Daily control level: 112.70

 

 

 

 

 

USDCHF

 

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/USDCHFM3004042016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 0.9640

 

Target 2: 0.9495

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0073

 

Daily control level: 0.9665

 

 

 

USDCAD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/USDCADM3004042016.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1.3175

 

Target 2: 1.2890

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0142

 

Daily control level: 1.2850

 

 

 

AUDUSD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/AUDUSDM3004042016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 0.7760

 

Target 2: 0.7575

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0092

 

Daily control level: 0.7725

 

 

 

 

 

GOLD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/GOLDM3004042016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1252.00

 

Target 2: 1212.00

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 19.74

 

Daily control level: 1222.00

 

 

 

 

 

OIL

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/CLK6M3004042016.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 38.00

 

Target 2: 35.00

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.44

 

Daily control level: 39.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 05.04.2016

 

 

 

 

 

 

EURUSD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/EURUSDM3005042016NY.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

This morning’s trading saw EURUSD test the 1.1355 line of control.

 

A penetration of the 1.1375 level would correspond to a breach of the last isolated high of this morning’s session.

 

Such an event could see EURUSD test the Daily Pivot (1.1385) and R1 (1.1414).

 

Alternatively, a sustained breached of the 1.1355 level could see EURUSD test S2 (1.1330)

 

 

 

 

 

GBPUSD

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/GBPUSDM3005042016ny.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

This morning GBPUSD broke down from its Daily Pivot (1.4258) and the 1.4250 support level.

 

The price continued its downward course and is now testing S1 (1.4195).

 

A continuation of the move lower could see GBPUSD test a prior weekly support level (1.4150) and S2 (1.4127).

 

Alternatively, a failure to sustain a move below S1 could see GBPUSD trade back up to the Daily Pivot.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USDJPY

 

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/USDJPYM3005042016ny.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

USDJPY has traded lower for most of the day.

 

However, a bounce has occurred off S3 (110.31).

 

A continuation of the correction could see USDJPY trade through both S2 (110.69) and S1 (111.00).

 

Alternatively, a resumption of the downtrend could see S3 retested.

 

 

 

 

USDCHF

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/USDCHFM3005042016ny.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

This morning, USDCHF has traded within a small range around the Daily Pivot (0.9588).

 

A breach of R1 (0.9609) or S1 (0.9562) could offer some guidance on the afternoon direction in prices.

 

 

 

 

 

USDCAD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/USDCADM3005042016ny.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

USDCAD has experienced a strong up-day that has brought the price action to touching distance of R3 (1.3200).

 

A continuation of the move higher, however, could run out of upside momentum as the price action has come close to exhausting the upper limit of its average true range (1.3210).

 

 

 

 

 

AUDUSD

 

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/05042016ny.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

AUDUSD has experienced a volatile session with the price action initially testing S1 (0.7575) and then the Daily Pivot (0.7626).

 

The Daily Pivot, however, was rejected, and this led to a freefall in AUDUSD that sent the price action crashing through S2 (0.7546).

 

A continuation of the move lower, however, could run out of downside momentum as the price action tests the lower level of today’s average true range (0.7515)

 

 

 

 

 

GOLD

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/GOLDM3005042016ny-1.png

 

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Gold this morning has broken higher as the price action has reversed its three day’s down trend.

 

Having slashed through R1, R2 and R3 Gold is now testing the upper ATR boundary of 1235.00.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

OIL

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/CLK6M3005042016ny-1.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Oil has experienced a quiet day as the price action trades at the bottom of a recent downtrend.

 

A breach of the Daily Pivot (36.00) or S1 (34.84) could offer guidance on the afternoon direction in prices.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 06.04.2016

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Today at 19:00 pm London time the FOMC minutes for the last meeting will be published. The release could likely put a further downward pressure on the US currency.

 

The US Dollar continues to decline as the Federal Reserve’s earlier promises were not matched to the actions. The last FOMC meeting held in March also disappointed investors after it decided to take a significantly more dovish stance than the one it undertook in December.

 

At the last speech, the Fed chairwoman underlined the caution with changes to the monetary policy being considered. The patient approach pushed the dollar downwards, with its index is now trading below 95.00 level, being its five-month low.

 

The earlier promised four rate hikes in 2016 are now changed to a mere two, and even these are not guaranteed. As the CME Fed Watch Tool shows, the chances that the Fed will increase interest rates in September are around 40% at the moment.

 

Furthermore, investors give just 18% a chance to the hawkish actions of the Fed in June and 57% in December. Nevertheless, keeping in mind the last speech of Janet Yellen, the future policy will be much more accommodative to the state of the domestic economy, which is represented by the inflation rate and jobs market. The global circumstances will also continue to be observed.

 

At the moment, the cheap dollar could actually be of a benefit to the US economy as the local production will be supported. Also, that is the way to keep the cost of the domestic debt at affordable levels, which is imperative to the world’s largest economy.

 

 

 

 

 

EURUSD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/EURUSDM3006042016.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1.1450

 

Target 2: 1.1310

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0070

 

Daily control level: 1.1400

 

 

 

 

GBPUSD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/GBPUSDM3006042016.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 1.4290

 

Target 2: 1.4030

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0131

 

Daily control level: 1.4320

 

 

 

 

USDJPY

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/USDJPYM3006042016.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 111.15

 

Target 2: 109.50

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.82

 

Daily control level: 111.75

 

 

 

 

USDCHF

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/USDCHFM3006042016-1.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 0.9615

 

Target 2: 0.9500

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0059

 

Daily control level: 0.9605

 

 

 

 

USDCAD

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/USDCADM3006042016.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1.3255

 

Target 2: 1.3015

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0122

 

Daily control level: 1.2995

 

 

 

 

 

AUDUSD

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/AUDUSDM3006042016.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 0.7625

 

Target 2: 0.7455

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0085

 

Daily control level: 0.7725

 

 

 

 

GOLD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/GOLDM3006042016.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Target 1: 1250.00

 

Target 2: 1213.00

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 18.21

 

Daily control level: 1214.00

 

 

 

 

 

OIL

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/CLK6M3006042016-1.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Target 1: 38.00

 

Target 2: 35.00

 

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.43

 

Daily control level: 37.25

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 07.04.2016

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EURUSD

 

http://i2.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/EURUSDM300704.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Daily Pivot : 1.1384

 

S1 : 1.1338

 

S2 : 1.1279

 

S3 : 1.1233

 

R1 : 1.1443

 

R2 : 1.1489

 

R3 : 1.1548

 

 

 

 

 

GBPUSD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/GBPUSDM3007042016.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Daily Pivot : 1.4099

 

S1 : 1.4027

 

S2 : 1.3933

 

S3 : 1.3862

 

R1 : 1.4193

 

R2 : 1.4264

 

R3 : 1.4358

 

 

 

 

USDJPY

 

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/USDJPYM300704.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Daily Pivot : 109.90

 

S1 : 109.18

 

S2 : 108.59

 

S3 : 107.86

 

R1 : 110.49

 

R2 : 111.22

 

R3 : 111.81

 

 

 

 

 

USDCHF

 

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/USDCHFM300704.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Daily Pivot : 0.9569

 

S1 : 0.9517

 

S2 : 0.9477

 

S3 : 0.9425

 

R1 : 0.9609

 

R2 : 0.9661

 

R3 : 0.9701

 

 

 

 

 

 

USDCAD

 

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/USDCADM300704.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Daily Pivot : 1.3111

 

S1 : 1.3037

 

S2 : 1.2987

 

S3 : 1.2912

 

R1 : 1.3161

 

R2 : 1.3236

 

R3 : 1.3286

 

 

 

 

 

 

AUDUSD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/AUDUSDM300704.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Down

 

Daily Pivot : 0.7583

 

S1 : 0.7547

 

S2 : 0.7496

 

S3 : 0.7460

 

R1 : 0.7634

 

R2 : 0.7669

 

R3 : 0.7720

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GOLD

 

http://i1.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/GOLDM300704.png

 

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Daily Pivot : 1223.00

 

S1 : 1215.00

 

S2 : 1208.00

 

S3 : 1200.00

 

R1 : 1230.00

 

R2 : 1239.00

 

R3 : 1245.00

 

 

 

 

 

OIL

 

 

http://i0.wp.com/academy.acfx.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/CLK6M300704.png

 

The intraday technical outlook

 

Trend 1 hour: Up

 

Daily Pivot : 37.32

 

S1 : 36.78

 

S2 : 35.87

 

S3 : 35.33

 

R1 : 38.23

 

R2 : 38.77

 

R3 : 39.68

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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