myfxpedia Posted February 4, 2013 Author Report Share Posted February 4, 2013 31 Jan 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com Monthly Summary ( click here to update online ): Number of Trades: 32 Winning Trades: 26 Losing Trades: 6 Total Pip Gain/Loss: +1,459.1 31 Jan 2012 Daily review by myfxpedia.com: The Europhobia is now seems as thing of the past people as though majority of traders are joining in the ride on the Euro band wagon. Has it really turns the corner? We doubt that is the case, as a matter of fact, we took a contrarian view with this current market and said that the Euro Debt Crisis is just the tip of the iceberg. Sure, it looks as though the crisis has been stabilised but we now know that this was an easy fix such that, well, we had a debt crisis happening around the globe and the solution that these central banks came up with is printing more money and feed to the bank or just throwing/lending to troubled banks and problems will be contained. Well, guess what? The debt crisis is just an appetizer for Euro group at the moment and supper will soon be serve to the Euro Zone as they will soon face problem with economy crisis where high Euro will eventually dampen the recovery and when countries like Greece, Spain unemployment rate hitting the 30% mark then the catastrophic will take its toll. Remember, as for Greece Bailout they have agreed to stick to the stiff Austerity as agreed with the European Union so there isn’t much room for Greece Government to manoeuvre in spending to support its economy. So, the higher the Euro for the time being will be harder the fall once reality of fundamental catch up. The rise of the Euro yesterday also supported by the fall in the dollar as the FOMC statement remains the same, the FED will keep printing $85 billion per month to support its economy, although last month some of the members in the FED panel did voice out that they are not happy with the ongoing printing of the dollar but that might just be the view of minority for time being. So, as long as there isn’t any major event risk happening and the FED keeps its printing machine running then the dollar will come under further pressure. Just wondering if anyone out there would think this is just part of their strategy that they use in the so called Currency War? Impact News today: 08:30 am (NY) CAD – GDP 08:30 am (NY) USD – Unemployment Claims 07:30 pm (NY) AUD – PPI 08:30 pm (NY) CNY – Manufacturing PMI. Technical Analysis: Yesterday we exited all of our holdings on GBPNZD for a total of 251 pips profits as prices reached out TP1. We also got tapped out of EURCAD for 69.5 pips loss. We are now looking to re-enter GBPNZD with a pending Buy limit which currently only about 40 pips away from entry. Prices has been pulling back a 150 pips since we exited. USDCHF we entered yesterday came under the bearish pressure after the FOMC statement anyway, stop remains if it hits which is only 20 pips away, we will just have to cop the loss of 100 pips on this trade and will wait till all indicators line up again. Below is H4 chart of GBPNZD. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
myfxpedia Posted February 4, 2013 Author Report Share Posted February 4, 2013 01 Feb 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com Project Summary ( click here to update online ): Duration: 07 Months , First Week Number of Trades Total | This Month: 217 | 1 Winning Trades Total | This Month: 173 | 1 Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month: +5737 | 17 01 Feb 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com: First day of the month and the Euro just keep marching on, just astonishing. Technically, the pair is way overbought and correction is overdue couple with that is the fundamentally the Euro Zone is screaming for lower Euro not higher if they seriously want to see a healthy recovery. At this current rate we would be a seller of the pair and not chasing the price in buying into this pair at current level. We will continue to accumulate in small lots sizes, we only need to be in with small lots size because of the higher it push the bigger the fall and this pair is also swap positive for going short. With yesterday announcement the US unemployment claims came out slightly above expectation this put downward pressure on the dollar, in turn, trader pushing the Euro through 1.3600 barrier. Earlier today during Asian trading session we had the release of Australian PPI which came below expectation and China PMI also came below expectation and the news has put further downward pressure on the AUD. Now next Tuesday we will have Rate decisions for the Aussies and with the high AUD of late has came off the boil since last week we may assume the current prices has in part factor in of possible Rate cut for next week and if next Tuesday the RBA decided to keep rate on hold then we might see a retraced toward 1.0500 very quickly and if the global economy looking gleam then a Rate cut would further send the AUD lower. We will look out for next Tuesday on Rate decision. During London open today we will have GBP manufacturing PMI which if below expectation will surely put further pressure on this oversold currency of late. So, we will now exit our GBPNZD for about 20 pips profit and will set for a pending Buy order at lower prices in case of a spike down on news. A spike down on news in an way oversold currency could as well prove an opportunity to pick up on cheaper entry. Well, you all probably been tired of us keep warning you of the approaching correction in the financial market and frankly we still hold on to that view as a matter of fact, with this bullishness and overshoot Equity market we do smell a rat somewhere so no, we do not buy into this market bullish perception, not until we have a decent corrections. Some of you might ask what should we do and how do we approach the FX market once correction kicking in. Well, we will look to buy into USD, JPY, sell the risk currencies such as Euro, AUD, NZD and if we play with the Cross currencies we will look to buy into currency with higher GDP against country with smaller GDP. Impact News today: 04:30 am (NY) GBP – Manufacturing PMI 08:30 am (NY) USD – Non-Farm Employment Change; Unemployment Rate 10:00 am (NY) USD – Manufacture PMI. Technical Analysis: We end the month with a record pips collected for the month of January, although, we still holding on to pairs that we plan to trade with daily cycles. Even though, we are currently in about minus 700 pips but we have been through this path many times before and each time it happens we usually set a new record month. So, finger cross that February will be the month of another new record in the making. USDCHF – yesterday it came down and retested the low that was set back on 2 January 2013 then bounced up, the situation now looks as though it has formed a double bottom with a Bullish Divergence on H4. Our stop is 15 pips below the last low. We just got to be mindful that today during NY session we are having a Non-Farm payroll announcement which normally moves the FX market. So, our stop stay @ 0.9060. Chart Below: The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
myfxpedia Posted February 19, 2013 Author Report Share Posted February 19, 2013 05 Feb 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com Project Summary ( click here to update online ): Duration: 07 Months , First Week Number of Trades Total | This Month: 2223 | 6 Winning Trades Total | This Month: 178 | 6 Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month: +5927.0 | 207.0 05 Feb 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com: Firstly, we would like to say sorry for not having yesterday update due to our service broker (AsxiTrader) doing maintenance and changing from Australian Server to US server on the weekend and we have a bit of hiccups on Monday when we first log in. We sincerely apologised for that. Last week we have a bullish Equity markets that seen the Dow Jones shooting past the high that was set back in 2007 and the Euro touched 1.3700. It was amazing to phantom that the Euro Zone has abruptly got out of trouble at start of the year, such is the work of spin doctor Mister Draghi. Well it seems like so if you look at the Euro dollars or at least traders/investor bought and brought into that view and that the Euro dollars now looks as like a safe haven currency. Oh well, yesterday things were put in reverse and we have the first biggest 1 day decline for the year as the Equity market as well as the Euro gave up most of its gained last Friday. It’s not surprised to see the pullback after a strong run at the beginning of the year and also Traders are getting nervous as of what Draghi have to say on this coming Thursday regarding the Rate decision. If he still put up a hawkish tone then we probably will see traders buying into that again and push the Euro higher but if this time round he set a dovish tone then we might see the Euro to come off further. Add on to that, from yesterday news we now have Spain which now has over 26% of unemployment rate and for the month of January alone it added 2.7% of unemployment – that’s spell trouble not better. Next to Spain we have Italy where the “Bad Boy” or should we call “The Lady Man” - Berlusconi is gaining traction on political front and so it seems that the Euro crisis and uncertainty is once again or about to, come around haunt traders/investors. In approximately 2 hours time we will have the RBA rate decision, many institutions think that Rate will remain unchanged, as often the RBA do not play a proactive role they probably will stand on the sideline and see what’s going on around the globe being taking action. But note, if they decide to cut rate, and we of opinion think that they should, then the AUD will crash lower as that would be an unexpected news. So look out for AUDUSD over the next few hours. Impact News today: 04:30 am (NY) GBP – Service PMI 10:00 am (NY) USD – Non Manufacture PMI 07:30 am (NY) AUD – Retail Sales. Technical Analysis: Last Friday we were caught out with unexpected exuberance of the market that we think have no fundamental backing to it. It could have been a truly bull market has finally arrive and traders/investor was chasing the market afraid of being left behind, OR, it could be stop hunt by market makers . We chose to believe it was the later and we did widen our stop to the maximum that we could possibly taken and that could as well took our draw down up to 10%. Another reason we did that was because of our broker is changing server on the weekend and comes Monday we might experience difficulties when logging in. So there were a possibility of not being able to follow the market when opens we chose to have done so. Now we might have a correction starting (especially the Euro) but as prices pullback there will be traders that would look to buy the dips and traders that miss out on previous run will cramp to get on as they do not want to miss out again. We will not buy into that, not when we had a Daily Engulfing candle yesterday and bearish Divergence on Daily as well as being overbought. We will look for prices to retrace on H4 to maybe ½ way of the Daily bearish candle or retest of previous peak to go short. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
myfxpedia Posted February 20, 2013 Author Report Share Posted February 20, 2013 06 Feb 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com Project Summary ( click here to update online ): Duration: 07 Months , 02 Weeks Number of Trades Total | This Month: 223 | 6 Winning Trades Total | This Month: 178 | 6 Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month: +5927.0 | 207.0 06 Feb 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com: Tomorrow we will have the ECB rate decision and most surveys reckon that rate will be on hold for the Euro Zone. It will come down to what Draghi, President of the ECB has to say, would he still stick to his hawkish view that was hold last month or would he rather take a dovish tone this time to stem the appreciation of the Euro amid the Euro crisis that threaten to flare up again comes end of February with the election in Italy and the Corruption allegation around Spain President Rajoy and moreover, countries around Europe have not adding enough jobs, as a matter of fact, Spain’s unemployment had spike to over 26% and that is not a good sign at all and if it ever happen when Spain or any other country, unemployment rate hit over 30% then they will have to throw in the towel. If Greece’s unemployment reaches that level we would expect Greece’s Government will ask for the exit door out of the Euro voluntarily; they just have to, to be able to survive because to stay in the Euro they have to stick to strict Austerity plan that drawn up for them and surely they just could not do what the American and UK did: printing your way out of trouble. Yesterday the Reserve Bank of Australia put rates on hold but with economy showing signs of weakness of late the RBA Governor Glen Steven had lean to a dovish tone and signal that they stand ready to cut rates down the track. Early tomorrow Asian trading session we will have the Aussie releasing the Unemployment Rate and about 3 hours ago we had the Australia Retail Trade that falls short of expectation and if unemployment rate to be release tomorrow also fall short of expectation then we expect a rate cut in March. Impact News today: 10:00 am (NY) CAD – PMI 04:45 pm (NY) NZD – Employment Change; Unemployment Rate. 07:30 pm (NY) AUD – Employment Change; Unemployment Rate. Technical Analysis: From yesterday chart on the EURUSD the prices now has retraced and stall at around 50% (1.3585)of previous leg down (H4). At around here if it formed a big Red candle and trade below previous low then expect for another fall of around 250 pips. Refer to yesterday chart. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
myfxpedia Posted February 21, 2013 Author Report Share Posted February 21, 2013 07 Feb 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com Project Summary ( click here to update online ): Duration: 07 Months , 02 Weeks Number of Trades Total | This Month: 225 | 8 Winning Trades Total | This Month: 180 | 8 Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month: +5997.7 | 277.7 07 Feb 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com: Today and tomorrow we expect lots of volatility in the FX market as there are flush of news going to hit market during London and NY opens. Traders will watch news from the Euro, most analysts expect the ECB will leave rates unchanged. It won’t be the rate decision that will drive the Euro, unless they unexpectedly cut Rate, what traders will look for is what the ECB President Draghi has to say. Would he try to curve the fast appreciation of the Euro while the crack within the Euro Zone economy start to show: recently, spike of Bond rate in Spain and Italy, low Retail Sales, and political uncertainty in Spain and Italy. We have France getting agitated with the fast appreciation of the Euro while Germany’s Government spoke person saying that the raise of the Euro isn’t a threat to the economic recovery at all. Just wondering is this so call “spoke person” have any idea of international trades and exchange rate at all, maybe they will feel the pinch once Lexus, high end Japanese Automotives invading the like of Audi and BMW then will wake this so called “spoke person”. Anyway, it will all depend on what Draghi has to say tonight and we think that any further push higher toward 1.40 will soon meet with rude awakening of falling out of bed. The other importance news will also come from the UK, although we expect the Bank Rate to keep on hold but what will likely drive the Pound would be what they intend to do to avoid the triple dip recession and will they announce of further stimulus and weaken the Pound even further. Stay tune. Impact News today: 03:00 am (NY) CHF – Foreign Currency Reserves 04:30 am (NY) GBP – Manufacturing Production 04:45 am (NY) GBP – BOE Governor-Designate Carney Speaks 07:00 am (NY) GBP – Asset Purchase Facility; Official Bank Rate 07:45 am (NY) EUR – Minimum Bid Rate 08:30 am (NY) CAD – Building Permits 08:30 am (NY) EUR – ECB Press Conference 08:30 am (NY) USD – Unemployment Claims 06:50 pm (NY) JPY – Current Account 07:30 pm (NY) AUD – RBA Monetary Policy Statement Technical Analysis: With high impact news tonight we decided to limited our holding on GBPNZD in case the UK governor decided to add on further stimulus to weaken the Pound. Chart-wise, we can see that this pair is building a bottom and being way oversold, also, when we base on H4 we currently having a strong resistance with overbought while on H1 also given us Negative Divergence, so we expect the pair to go sideways or pullback to ease the overbought on H4, H1 before the high impact news release then direction will be determined. GBPNZD - H4 GBPNZD - H1 The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
myfxpedia Posted February 21, 2013 Author Report Share Posted February 21, 2013 08 Feb 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com Project Summary ( click here to update online ): Duration: 07 Months , 02 Weeks Number of Trades Total | This Month: 228 | 11 Winning Trades Total | This Month: 183 | 11 Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month: +6175.9 | +455.9 08 Feb 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com: Ok, It seemed that Draghi did what we have expected (yesterday update) as being prudent. Surely, he isn’t a fool after all and knows exactly what is needed for the health of the European economy to be well on the path of recovery and so his tone was more cautious, a turnaround from last month speech, for sure he must have make life like hell for many traders going Short on the Euro with tight stops. As we have say it many times before, in this sort of business where and when we have identify a terminal zone and technical is not in sync with fundamental then soon the fundamental will prevail. The problem for us as traders is to be ready to weather and survive the storm; at time markets behave much more irrational than your pocket can bear and before it’s coming to its sense and so we must stand ready to take on that storm and strategise our entries, in this case we entered with small lots sizes and widen our stops and stand ready for a drawdown of 10%. Over the last two weeks that was exactly happened to us and this is the 2nd times its has happened over the last 9 months. The last time it happened was 2 months ago and we came out with a record pips collected for the month and now we slowly steer our way out of this storm once again and collecting pips as we doing so. At times our strategy/system might not suit everyone but rest as sure, there isn’t any holy grail strategy/system out there. It all comes down to Risk Management and knowing your Risk and sticking to your trading plan and ultimately, as a trader you must adopt to the ability of trading without Greed nor Fear. Impact News today: 12:30 am (NY) CNY – CPI 08:30 am (NY) CAD – Employment Change; Trade Balance; Unemployment Rate 08:30 am (NY) USD – Trade Balance. Technical Analysis: We just add on another position on USDCAD. This pair we entered with a small lot size 4 days ago and after yesterday candles formation H4 and a retested of uptrend line holds we decided to entered another lot at the same prices level of our 1st entry with same stop but different target. Chart below. USDCAD – H4 The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
myfxpedia Posted February 21, 2013 Author Report Share Posted February 21, 2013 11 Feb 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com Project Summary ( click here to update online ): Duration: 07 Months , 03 Weeks Number of Trades Total | This Month: 228 | 11 Winning Trades Total | This Month: 183 | 11 Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month: +6175.9 | +455.9 11 Feb 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com: First of all we would like to say Happy New Year to all our Asian members that celebrate the New Year according Moon Calendar. May this year bring you Prosperity and the Life that you always long for. Early in the week there isn’t much fundamental news to actually move the market and with the Chinese new year which they celebrate for at 3 days so we do not expect much fundamental news coming out of Asia for the course of the week, but with last Friday comment from the Japanese Finance Minister just before he was heading for New Year celebration was enough to toughen up the Yen. Mr. Aso, said that the severe weaknesses in the Yen came as a surprise to the Government as they have never intended to do so, not wanting to engage in a so called “Currency War” anyway. Yeah, sure, we believe you and pardon my French, “Mr. a** –ole”. Also from last week prices behaviour on the EURUSD had took off the boil and pullback from the overbought after Druggy “Draghi” speeches. Technically, on weekly we have a Juicy bearish Engulfing Candle pattern, with Negative Divergence on MACD. This signal as warning sign of trend change, but mind you, thing just don’t go in straight line, especially after a strong trend so we might have a zigzag or even another push higher on stop hunts and sucking in new long positions before it came crashing hard. So, our advise is not to chase the market, that is not to add new Short position at current prices just yet. Wait for a retrace at least about 1.3500 before taking Short position but only take small position as we just said, it could push up to retest previous high or even make a false break higher. So, any push higher than 1.3500 we will only look for Shorts. Impact News today: All Day – Euro Group Meetings. Technical Analysis: We are currently hold 4 positions on 3 pairs and have so far banked 455 pips. Earlier in the months, although we were holding 9 positions at one time but still within our Risk parameter as well as within the maximum drawdown parameter and that was all due to Risk Management and if you read out daily updates you would have noticed that since late January we have been constantly reminding you of market being irrational and we took the contrarian view to the prices behaviour and only trade with small lot size which so far have prove fruitful. There’s a famous investor that always take the contrarian view to the market and would ride the storm to come out on top, yes, we are talking about Warren Buffett, Just look at his recent investment back in 2008 for which initially seemed like a bad investment but now, 2 weeks ago from CNBC he had came out on top as best investor and won the race....again. Anyway, We just want to emphasise the importance of Risk Management and guts to stick to your strategy. Once you have identify a trade that meet your strategy then work on your Risk Management and the trade will take care of itself. Lets now take a look at USDCAD. We are holding 2 positions on this pair with latest entry was last Friday which is twice the lots size of our initial entry and both entries are basically of the same entry prices. Our first entry was aggressive, a testing the water sort of thing with small lot size as we identified the range. Initially it went against us but never reach our stop then reverse and formed a good reliable candle pattern we therefore took another add on positions. This pair has now (at time of writing) given us 60 pips in front. We are now moving our stop to just above our entry prices. The one thing that we hate most as trader is to see a winning trade turn into a losing trade, the feeling and the psychology behind it is very damaging, we can assure you that. The pair has now reach our 1st target project – you can check from last Friday update – but with the momentum still going strong we will look for a retest of previous high. Chart below: USDCAD –H4 The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. 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myfxpedia Posted February 21, 2013 Author Report Share Posted February 21, 2013 12 Feb 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com Project Summary ( click here to update online ): Duration: 07 Months , 03 Weeks Number of Trades Total | This Month: 231 | 15 Winning Trades Total | This Month: 186 | 14 Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month: +6426.3 | +706.3 12 Feb 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com: It was relative mute for the EURUSD pair yesterday which slowly creep up to 1.3400 but unable to clear the psychological resistance. The standout pairs that actually making decent move yesterday were the Pound USD and USDCAD. The Pound still under heavy downward pressure and yesterday moves has given up all the rally that it managed late last week. It was a straight V-shape reversal for the Pound yesterday, according to our H4 chart, It currently retesting last week low. If last week low can’t hold then we probably will see 1.5500 very quickly but watch and be careful of false break, that is, it could push below last week low and do a stop runs then reverse course. If it is a false break we may find good support after 30 to 50 pips below previous low. As for USDCAD, we manage to get on board and collected about 100 pips for each of our 2 separate entries, if USDCAD manages to clear the 1.0100 level then there isn’t much resistance for the pair to run to 1.0220. Anyway, over the next few days there are many fundamentals news will directly or indirectly effects currency movement, particularly the Euro and the Yen pairs. This week market watchers are watching closely the GDP of the majors then we will have 2 days meeting of G20 starting on Friday with one of the hot issue will be on the table would be the devaluation of currency as it seems to have taking shape. Interesting time ahead as we slowly going through February folks. Impact News today: 03:15 am (NY) CHF – CPI 04:30 am (NY) GBP – CPI 05:00 am (NY) CHF – SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks. 08:45 am (NY) CAD – BOC Governor Carney Speaks. Technical Analysis: Below are charts of USDCAD and GBPNZD which our pending Buy limit triggered during NY session and we exited at end of NY session for 50 pips. We now have another pending buy limit on this pair where we look for prices to retest the uptrend line created on H4, H1. Base on H1 we look for this pair to form Bullish Divergence. Note: this pair has been in serious down trend and way oversold and it is in the process of building bottom and once the cycle change this pair can make pretty good upside correction. The one thing that put off traders on this pair is the Swap so only play with small lot size and once we see the cycle change then we will stick with it for many days. USDCAD – H4 The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
myfxpedia Posted February 21, 2013 Author Report Share Posted February 21, 2013 13 Feb 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com Project Summary ( click here to update online ): Duration: 07 Months , 03 Weeks Number of Trades Total | This Month: 232 | 16 Winning Trades Total | This Month: 187 | 15 Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month: +6471.2 | +751.2 13 Feb 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com: Although there were lack of related news for the Euro Zone the EURUSD seems to resume its uptrend and slowly creeping up in a tight range toward 1.3500 area. There isn’t any high impact news for the remaining of the week but over the next 2 days we will have reports on GDP from countries within the Euro Group as well as Trade Balance of the Euro, although not highly impact on the Euro but would provide a glimpse into the state of the European economy. If you have read yesterday update, on the very 1st paragraph where we mentioned of Stop Hunts could be in play on GBPUSD and as prices behaviour on H4 chart has shown us exactly that. It went below previous low/support and quickly ran for another 60 pips (well, our prediction were out by 10 pips) and then totally retraced to the upside and went back above previous support creating a false break. If any of you were watching the market last night and had read our update earlier and using H1/M30 to enter Long on this pair you have done a great job. Congrats. Anyway, we do expect this week is just a set up week for the next 2 weeks of high volatility weeks with news from the G7, G20 meetings and the political sovereign risk in Spain and Italy will heat up over the coming days. So, stay tune. Impact News today: 05:30 am (NY) GBP – BOE King Speaks; Inflation Report 08:30 am (NY) USD – Core Retail Sales; Retail Sales 10:00 am (NY) USD – Treasury Security Speaks. Technical Analysis: As said above we are now planning our attack on GBPUSD as the pair had has a false break on H4 and formed a good bullish long tail doji on Daily so we will put on a pending Buy limit with stop 25 pips below yesterday low. Remember this pair is still under downward pressure so we only trade with small lot size. Chart below. GBPUSD – Daily. GBPUSD - H4 The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
myfxpedia Posted February 23, 2013 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2013 15 Feb 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com Project Summary ( click here to update online ): Duration: 07 Months , 03 Weeks Number of Trades Total | This Month: 232 | 16 Winning Trades Total | This Month: 187 | 15 Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month: +6471.2 | +751.2 15 Feb 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com: Hope everyone has had a wonderful Valentine Day and spent most of your day with your love one than glue to FX chart. Anyway, from yesterday Europe released a series of trouble GDP across the board with Germany fell -0.6%, France -0.3%, Italy plunged -0.9% while Spain and Netherland also contracted. The disappointing GDP speak out the state of economy for Europe still a long way from recovery and anyone of the thought of Euro Crisis is behind us then they are kidding themself. With poor GDP released yesterday has prices quickly rejected the 1.3500 level forming an inverted hammer on daily chart, a reversal at 1.35. However, prices found support at the 1.3330 uptrend line support. We expect the Euro to be weaken further, to at least 1.3200 area where it will retest the primary uptrend line, below that will open doors for further downside with 1.2780 as target. Today we will have the UK Retail sales figure which will determine the direction of the Pound in short term: A good Retail numbers will give the Pound a good rebound that it needs after being in a serious down trend at beginning of the year, if the news is going to be disappointing would further indicate the UK is closer to the triple dip recession and that could push the pound further toward 1.5300 support. Early in the Asian trading session today we have the NZD retail sales number that came in strong and that has helped the pair NZDUSD passed the 0.8500 barrier. Now let talk about the NZD for a minute. We are of the view that this currency is way overbought and overrated and the correction on this pair will soon eventuate. It is in our view that NZD is currently in the Terminal zone and when the cycle turn this pair can run down substantially quickly. Noted that New Zealand only has the population of just over 4 million people, a much small size GDP than many developed countries and when it comes to currency, the NZD can be very illiquid and just like in any illiquid stocks when in time of trouble people will take a run and sell out at whatever prices they could and this will put on a tremendous pressure on the NZD. We will only look to go short on NZDUSD or Long GBPNZD. We had already Long GBPNZD with our bath tub play and we only add small positions on the pair so that the overall holdings will always stay within our risk parameter. Impact News today: 04:30 am (NY) GBP – Retail Sales 09:55 am (NY) USD – Consumer Sentiment. Technical Analysis: We are currently holding 3 pairs of multiple entries on each pair and they are sitting well within our risk parameter. We expect the Euro will under pressure short term and least pullback another 100 -200 pips to find a meaningful support there about. As for GBPNZD we think it is way over sold. It is in the process of building the bottom. We had a monster Monthly Bullish Divergence. Daily Continuous bullish Divergence and H4 already has more than 20 candles ride to the downside on the last run down without any retraces. We therefore will look for retrace to the upside toward at least 1.8750 to 1.9000. This chart set up reminding us of USDJPY back in about late 2011 to February 2012 when we have monster Monthly Divergence and Continuous Bullish Divergence on Weekly. The only problem and put off on this pair, GBPNZD, is that we are facing with negative swaps so if anyone with account of swap free should not be afraid to hold on to this pair. Although we cannot pin point as to when the cycle will turn but we can say that it is very close. USDCHF - H4 The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
myfxpedia Posted March 7, 2013 Author Report Share Posted March 7, 2013 6 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com Project Summary ( click here to update online ): Duration: 08 Months , 01 Weeks Number of Closed Trades Total | This Month: 242 | 1 Winning Trades Total | This Month: 194 | 1 Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month: +6957.9 | +63.4 06 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com: First of all we are very sorry for being absent from our daily updates this was due to our Chief trader relocating his offices. We supposed you all know how hectic it is when you have to move places. Anyway, things are now settle and we should have our regular market updates from now. The FX market over the last 2 weeks have been trading in a tight boring range. What we noticed is that the Equities market keep pushing higher and yesterday actually had breakout to new high and yet the risk currencies just shrugged it off and not moving in the same direction with the Equities market as they used to do and the same as commodities such as Gold, Silver...etc. they are just sitting as a flat bed. The break out of the high from the stock market should be put in questions as this could be just a sucker rally, this could be the perfect storm in the making. So, how would we position ourselves in the event that we are going to have a stock market correction heading our way? Well, we will seek the safe haven currencies, predominantly USD and if we are to buy/sell the cross pairs we will look to bank on the currency that has bigger GDP. Keep that in mind folks. Also from CNBC yesterday you can watch the interview of a veteran trader, Art Cashin (Damn, We even love his name here at Myfxpedia – Art Cashing in) from the NY stock exchange that share our view regarding the overheated market in an unsubstantiated rally. You can watch it here http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000152041 Now, yesterday we have the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to keep Rate on holds , coupled with better than expected Retail Sales and this give the AUD a boost to the upside. In our view, the AUD and NZD going forward will be going lower so, with this push up in the AUD we will watch with interest and patiently wait for signal to sell the pairs. The reason we came to such view is that recently, China, with the newly appointed government has initiated in focussing on its own domestic economy while doing all it could to curb the overheated property market. The law in China from our last look up is that every individual now can only (on paper) owe 1 property to live in only. This is their way of curbing, stopping the riches from investing in property and inflated the properties prices. Now if that is actually the case we will see a slow down in property market, in turn would slow down constructions and therefore prices of commodities, materials will also fall and with commodities prices, namely Iron Ore, fall this will surely affect the Aussie commodity market and certainly will drag the AUD much lower. Impact News today: 04:45 am (NY) GBP – King Speaks 08:15 am (NY) USD – Non – Farm Employment change 10:00 am (NY) CAD – BOC Rate Statement; PMI; Overnight Rate 07:30 pm (NY) AUD – Trade Balance Technical Analysis: Ok, we have been holding 2 pairs EURGBP and GBPNZD for a while now. Both pairs are currently in the process of forming (temporarily ?) tops and bottoms. We just have to be patience with them as the potential rewards on this 2 pairs can be huge. Now let us delve into each one of them. EURGBP – Daily EURGBP – H4 GBPNZD - H4 The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
myfxpedia Posted March 8, 2013 Author Report Share Posted March 8, 2013 7 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com Project Summary ( click here to update online ): Duration: 08 Months , 01 Weeks Number of Closed Trades Total | This Month: 242 | 1 Winning Trades Total | This Month: 194 | 1 Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month: +6957.9 | +63.4 07 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com: Geez, we are going into today with a whole lot of high impact news. The most anticipate new for tonight that traders will be watching very closely would be the ECB rate decision. The question is would the ECB step in to actually spoil the party that put a halt on the Equity market euphoria of late and base on the last few weeks of data coming out of Europe that showed the economy in Europe is deteriorating and so a slash of interest rate by the ECB should not come as a surprise. Yesterday, the Bank of Canada leaves rate on hold and what dragged the CAD down was the Statement that state that there are rooms for further easing and things deteriorated any further. Anyway, as said in previous update we are now witnessing the euphoria of the market as it keeps on pushing higher on a non considerable volumes and for which we are very sceptical about this equity hype. If we take a hard good look at the facts we will see that market over the last 4 years or so has been driven by the FED and Central Banks around the world as they keep on printing money and feed hungry investors while the actual state of the economy, such as employment isn’t at all healthy or anywhere to be consider healthy. Back in early January, in one of our update, we did gave a bold call and suggested that this rally in the market will soon be dealt with a nasty blow over the next 4 to 6 months. Yes, back in January we did stated that we do expect a Correction in the Stock Market over the next 4 to 6 months and come along the risk currencies as well. Oh well, our timeline is drawing near and yes we still do hold on to that view and this could happen in any day now, could it be this month? Or sometimes in early April just to mark the 12 years anniversary of the Tech Crash? Just have to wait and see. Impact News today: 03:00 am (NY) CHF – Foreign Currency Reserves 04:00 am (NY) CHF – SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks 07:00 am (NY) GBP – Asset Purchase Facility; Official Bank Rate 07:45 am (NY) EUR – Minimum Bid Rates 08:30 am (NY) CAD – Building Permits; Trade Balance 08:30 am (NY) EUR – ECB Press Conference 09:30 am (NY) USD – Trade Balance; Unemployment Claims 04:30 pm (NY) USD – Bank Stress Test 06:50 pm (NY) JPY – Current Account Technical Analysis: EURGBP - still range bound as base on H4, we will probably see decent movement on this pair tonight after the ECB rate decision. GBPNZD – as explain yesterday this pair is currently in a subwave5 of wave2 and if it has put on the low for this subwave5 completed @ 1.8065 then we would expect a wave3 up and creating a short term trend change. Note: This pair could go lower to retest previous low of 1.7970. We anticipated this pair is in the process of forming the base and the retrace to the upside can be very rewarding with this pair and so we only getting into this pair with small lot size. AUDNZD – Yesterday our pending order triggered, from the chart below we can see that the pair has put in a bottom forming short term higher highs and higher lows then put on a pullback forming Flag pattern. We entered after it formed a minor support of 1.2310 by creating a triple tweezers and MACD creating a hidden bullish divergence. At time of writing the prices has now just break out of the Flag and resume the short term uptrend. If the wave count is valid then we could see a Wave3 projection which usually at least equal the length of Wave1. Chart below. AUDNZD – H4 The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
myfxpedia Posted March 11, 2013 Author Report Share Posted March 11, 2013 8 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com Project Summary ( click here to update online ): Duration: 08 Months , 01 Weeks Number of Closed Trades Total | This Month: 242 | 1 Winning Trades Total | This Month: 194 | 1 Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month: +6957.9 | +63.4 08 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com: From yesterday news released we have the BOE and the ECB both decided to keep rate on hold. Prior to the BOE new the Pound was well and truly under the downward pressure but quickly regained its ground once traders learned that rate on hold as well as no change within their current QE program. While the Euro came alive kicking after comments from the ECB President, Draghi, that said the Euro zone is expecting a slow recovery in the later ½ of 2013 but urged all countries within the zone to be on track with their reforms. The rally in the Euro was also helped by the Spain bond auction which went much better than expect with took out the investor fear regarding the country debt burden. The thing that really bugger our minds is the disconnections between markets and the actual health of the economy. From yesterday rally we had the market ignoring the fact that German came out with news of “unexpectedly decline in Factory Orders” and mind you most of the news came out of Germany over the last month or two spell troubles yet, all these fundamental healthy of the economy being shrugged off and market keep pushing higher, although of no significant committed buyers in the market (no volumes) as we seen most of the Index keeps pushing higher and higher. Let us tell you what? These sort of behaviours in the market spells Perfect Storm is drawing near. It probably will take a bad data coming out of the US or Euro will signal a panic selling and we mean a good 3 days to a week of heavy selling (correction), not just a pullback like the one we just have at beginning of the week. Since we do not know when and where it will take place the only thing we can do is to position ourselves, you just have to be in it to win it, and since the market sometimes can be very irrational we therefore only playing with small lots and patiently waiting for the fundamentals to root this market. Today we have the Non-Farm payroll coming out of the US and as we seen of late most of data coming of the US showing signs that the country is well and truly on the path of recovery and so many will expect improve number of employments. If we are going to see a number of more than 162,000 employment added to the work force we probably will see another rally in the risk assets. Impact News today: 03:15 am (NY) CHF – CPI 08:30 am (NY) CAD – Employment Change; Unemployment Rate 08:30 am (NY) USD – Non-Farm Employment Change; Unemployment Rate 08:30 am (NY) CNY - CPI Technical Analysis: We are still holding our 3 pairs, although they are in negative but still below our risk parameter. We have been in this situation many times before and each time we always came out with record pips so, just be patient, as long as we are within our risk parameter we will get our chance. The only put off that we do not like is the swap on GBPNZD but well, just part of trading, we just can’t have everything the way we like it hey. AUDNZD – This pair has now breakout of the Flag pattern and looks as though it’s on its way to form Wave3. Once it reaches 100 pips we will exit ½ and bring to breakeven the others with TP of 1.2725. EURGBP – We are looking to add position on this pair with our pending order. Chart below. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
myfxpedia Posted March 12, 2013 Author Report Share Posted March 12, 2013 11 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com Project Summary ( click here to update online ): Duration: 08 Months , 02 Weeks Number of Closed Trades Total | This Month: 243 | 2 Winning Trades Total | This Month: 195 | 2 Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month: +7078.0 | +183.5 11 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com: Lately we have seen the Equities markets around the world is going nuts, all the indexes seems to be on drug and keep shooting higher. The only index that is lagging as compare to other country is from China, the MIA. Maybe they know something and not going along with the herds. Are they missing band wagon or their investors are more calm and prudent? We tend to think it’s the later. From our perspective we do not have the confident in this unsubstantiated rally either but yes we do think in later part of the year we probably will get a meaningful bull market but not after a decent correction. Looking at the indexes, noticeably is the S&P, we are currently have prices at multi-weeks high and overbought while on Daily we have Continuous Negative Divergence and overbought and we therefore expect a decent pullback will happens shortly, it could start this very week and as many participants in the market use to say “ Buy in December and Sell in April/May”. Over the weekend Politicians from Germany came out saying that policy makers has to be careful of softer Euro as it could push the inflation out of proportion and another is saying that the main and greatest threat to the Euro is still Greece and even suggest Greece to exit of the Euro that would be the best case scenario for the Euro. Wow, that’s a very daring, gutful suggestion. Firstly, we don’t think the Greece mind of being shown the exit door and unless they are being push out of the Euro they won’t voluntarily leave the Euro. They will stay in the zone for as long as they can and put their hand out for more Bailout Funds while “Druggie” of the ECB will come out and says “ ECB will do all it can...”. If you were Greece would you do the same? Stick to the zone for as long as you can and get feed until you cannot be fed any further, why not? Now, what would happen if Greece being shovel out of the Euro Zone? Is it the best case scenario for the Euro as many think it is? Maybe, the Euro Group were reluctant to kick Greece out of the Group because they do not want to set the precedent as the market would go into spin and the next question on the lips of investors would be, who’s next? Spain, Italy, Portugal, Ireland...etc? Too much headache, let’s leave it alone. Last Friday, we had an excellent Non-Farm Payroll number from the US and that’s send the USD soaring against others currencies, the only currency that buck the trend was CAD which also boast a good number of employments for the month. Over the last 2 months or so we have witness the much better improvement of the state of economy from North America and base on that market sentiments we will look to buy into the USD on pullback. Impact News today: None Technical Analysis: There are no impact news today and not until Wednesday do we have meaningful news coming through FX market, so, expect a range bound trading over the next couple days. EURGBP and GBPNZD as mentioned last Friday, this 2 pairs are building the top and bottom, They are playing around the tops and bottoms a little bit before reversing trends we just have to be patience. AUDNZD – the pair behave just exactly according to our analysis last Friday. We exited ½ positions and trail stop just below the Resistance turn Support, about 27 pips above our entry. Our next target will be @ 1.2580 then 1.2720. Chart below AUDNZD – H4 The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
myfxpedia Posted March 13, 2013 Author Report Share Posted March 13, 2013 12 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com Project Summary ( click here to update online ): Duration: 08 Months , 02 Weeks Number of Closed Trades Total | This Month: 243 | 2 Winning Trades Total | This Month: 195 | 2 Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month: +7078.0 | +183.5 12 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com: The Equity market around the world must be on steroid and keep pushing higher but mind you it’s not because we have buyers eager to getting into the market at least volumes doesn’t say so. It’s the lack of Sellers in the market that created help creating the bullish scenario with low volumes. We suspect sellers are lurking behind the scene patiently waiting for the opportunity to pounce on this sucker rally and when it happens we will see many of the currency pairs are also having correction as well Impact News today: 05:30 am (NY) GBP – Manufacturer Production Technical Analysis: EURGBP and GBPNZD as stated yesterday, these two pairs are in the process of forming tops and bottoms and can be very rewarding. EURGBP we are looking for correction toward 0.8250 and for GBPNZD we are looking for 1.9000. So, be patience. AUZNZD – yesterday during the late NY session we had a pullback on this pair and came real close to our trailing stop. It then bounce back to the up which confirmed of retest of the earlier breakout and watch for price action at the downtrend line resistance, around 1.2520 if it pushes up to that level, we might consider exiting the remaining lots as price at that level would meet heavy resistance plus we are having Negative Divergence on H4 also. Chart below. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
myfxpedia Posted March 14, 2013 Author Report Share Posted March 14, 2013 Project Summary ( click here to update online ): Duration: 08 Months , 02 Weeks Number of Closed Trades Total | This Month: 244 | 3 Winning Trades Total | This Month: 196 | 3 Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month: +7236.2 | +341.7 13 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com: There wasn’t much to add as market as most of the major currencies are in range bound due to lacks of fundamental news. The only piece of news was from the GBP and as we can see the market had factor in of the disappoint data as prices was under downward pressure but as soon as news came the initial reaction was down but quickly change direction and regain most of the losing ground during the day. Later tonight (NY time), early Thursday morning Sydney time we will have the Official Cash Rate decision from NZD. As many expect the cash rate to remain unchanged and so it all comes to what is going to be said by Governor Wheeler. Is he going to talk down the NZD or is he going to give a hawkish view of the New Zealand economy. In our personal view, he probably will state a strong New Zealand economy but at the same will warn of the possible intervention from the RBNZ to keep the NZD in check by preventing of deterioration in the export industry. The reaction to this on the pair that we currently hold, GBPNZD: The initial reaction would be down, but the downside from here is limited and then a strong retracement to the upside for this pair. Impact News today: 08:30 am (NY) USD - Core Retail Sales; Retail Sales 04:00 pm (NY) NZD – Official Cash Rate; RBNZ Press Conference; Rate Statement 08:05 pm (NY) NZD – RBNZ Governor Wheeler Speaks 08:30 pm (NY) Employment Change; Unemployment Rate. Technical Analysis: EURGBP and GBPNZD still playing out, we will be patience with these 2 pairs, it’s quite frustrating to hold GBPNZD due to terrible swap but it’s just part of the game. Regarding GBPNZD, due to high impact news later today we will watch carefully if it push for one more leg down as we anticipate this could be the last leg down before momentum shift to the upside or at least a strong retracement. That said, as the news will be release during the most illiquid trade hour it could be detrimental, it’s the perfect time for Market Makers doing Stop Runs on their traders so do not surprise if we decided to move our Stops to avoid being the victim of shark. We exited AUDNZD today base on trailing on the 30 mins charts for 158 pips. We will look into this pair again over the next day or two for possible short as the pair has now formed Continuous Negative Divergence on H4 and had 2 attempts at the breakout of the downtrend line but fail both times on Daily chart. We will look for candle pattern, a juicy red candle form on the daily will trigger the short with target of recent low. Chart Below. AUDNZD – Daily The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
myfxpedia Posted March 18, 2013 Author Report Share Posted March 18, 2013 14 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com Project Summary ( click here to update online ): Duration: 08 Months , 02 Weeks Number of Closed Trades Total | This Month: 244 | 3 Winning Trades Total | This Month: 196 | 3 Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month: +7236.2 | +341.7 14 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com: Just as we said from yesterday updated: It’s not the rate decision from the RBNZ that move the market but what is being said by the Governor Wheeler that’s move the market. What Governor Wheeler said was exactly what we think as being prudent; he talked down the NZD and clearly stated that the NZD is OVERVALUE by 10 to 15% and that was enough for the drop in the NZD and that was exactly our view all along over the last 2 weeks or so. We have stated that the NZD is way overvalue that has been pump up with no fundamental behind it and ultimately the fundamental will come and root it and today we are starting to see the first sign of NZD taking shape in correction. Beside the correction in some of the overheated currencies with no back up fundamentals we will shortly see a good correction in the equities market as well. We have been saying this for a while now, at least over the last 4 weeks and yesterday Art Cashin from CNBC also put out a good cautious tone of this market rally. You can watch Art Cashin here http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000154059&play=1 What intriguing from that Video was the fact that we had 9 straight days run to the upside and this has not happen over the last 16 years. In 1987, we have a straight 13 days up and then we know exactly what happened in 1987 hey.....the 2nd biggest correction since 1930. If history is anything to go by then let have some food for thought. Back in 1930 or should I said late 1929, October, we had the biggest market crashed that follow depression worldwide and market crawled its way back up just to see another good deep correction in 1936/37 which was 6/7 years apart. Since 2007 se have the SUPRIME Mortgage that triggered the triggered the financial meltdown which was known as GFC that prolonged until end of 2009. Now, we are in 2013 which is about 6/7 years from the start of the GFC. So what do you reckon? Impact News today: 04:30 am (NY) CHF – Libor Rate; SNB Monetary Policy Assessment 08:30 am (NY) USD – PPI; Unemployment Claims. Technical Analysis: Ok, at the moment and from yesterday prices action it looks like we are about to see the correction in some of the overheated currency and from the pairs we hold that base on yesterday candle formation looks promising. Over the last few weeks some of our newly joined members must have been agitated and wondering, questioning of our trades. What you need to understand in this sort of trading business is knowing your risk and having a proper Risk Management in place. To us, trading and taking positions is just part of the game but the ultimate driver of this game is to have risk under control and that was exactly what we did. If you go back to many previous post you will see that have many time stated about the condition of certain pairs and keep reminding our members of just taking small positions with wider stop and trade accordingly to their risk profile. You see, when we spot something that do not line up, fundamentally and technically, and as the pair entered in our Buy/Sell zone we will start to attack but because of the usual market irrational behaviour, we always give a leeway by wider stop and when the cycle turn that is when reality of fundamental awaken the traders then we will be in for a good profit. Yes, we know there are room to improve in our Entries execution but then, who can tell when the turn will take place? And if we are reluctant to take the trade and keep waiting so that we can get in at the best possible prices. Let us tell you this....we aren’t god, we aren’t fortune teller and we definitely have no magic mirror to tell when and where prices will take shape and if just sit idling on the sideline waiting for better prices to enter we, most of the time will miss the trades. We have been in this financial market long enough to realise that: “Only, Sound Risk Management is The Road to Prosperity”. Enough Said. AUDCAD – Our pending triggered early in today Asian session due to unexpected rise in employment rate release by the Australian. A jump of 71500 as compare to 9500 forecast, yet, we do questioned of the actual employment since we have a huge jump in employment would that then equate to a good drop in Unemployment Rate also? But no, the unemployment rate came out at 5.4% while economist forecast of 5.5% which basically is in line with expectation. The only thing we can explain this is just the way they calculate the number of employment, such that they registered all people that work fulltime, part-time, casuals and yet, for part-time and especially Casuals they somehow also needs some sort of assistance from the department of Welfare to cover their daily living and that will also count as unemployed. Truly, we have no idea how did they come up with the numbers and yet the rate of Unemployment doesn’t seem to budge. Anyway, we are now in the trade, let see chart below. AUDCAD – Daily AUDCAD - H4 The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. 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myfxpedia Posted March 21, 2013 Author Report Share Posted March 21, 2013 15 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com Project Summary ( click here to update online ): Duration: 08 Months , 02 Weeks Number of Closed Trades Total | This Month: 244 | 3 Winning Trades Total | This Month: 196 | 3 Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month: +7236.2 | +341.7 15 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com: There isn’t much impact news today beside the US and a conclusive 2 days EU summit. Many traders will look forward to what will coming out from the EU summit and as far as the fundamental of the European economy we all know that so far nothing has been fix, as a matter of fact it is getting worse base on many economic data release over the last few weeks. In yesterday update, we mentioned about 1936, guess what? Later in the night during US we found an article by Tyler Durben from Zerohedge.com who put up a very interesting view with many similarities of what’s happing now as compare to 1936. Glad to have other sharing same view. You can read it here: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-14/1936-redux-its-really-never-different-time Another piece from yesterday that we mention was the fact that we had a huge jump in employment in Aust with an unchanged in the rate of Jobless Claims have us puzzle. Guess what, from many of the Australian leading economics today also came out questioning the authorities about that as well, just really, how they came up with that number, a number that was the best jobs number ever in the last 12.5 years. So, don’t be surprised to see the authority came out with an “apology” statement, just like the one we had from the US 3 months ago. Impact News today: 08:30 am (NY) USD – Core CPI 09:55 am (NY) USD – Prelim Consumer Sentiment. Technical Analysis: We did mention in the last 3 updates or so that EURGBP and GBPNZD are both in the process of forming top and bottom and with yesterday prices action it would technically indicate that the start of correction for this 2 pairs are taking shape. GBPNZD – from chart below we see that the pair has now breakout of the downtrend channel and by using Channel Projection, Price would then take us to at least around 0.8650 – 0.8750 area. Which then coincide with 38% fib retracement and Resistance level. Prices target is shaded in Eclipse. EURGBP – Last week we had a 1 day Strong Bearish Engulfing candle, prices then retraced and retested the high 3 days ago and fail. We then have 2 consecutive down days with Negative Divergence. Yesterday Prices also broke below the low of the ascending wedge. Using Wedge target projection will take us to about 0.8350/0.8400 as first resistance once it close below 0.8600. Our 2nd target is the Long term uptrend line. Chart Below. AUDCAD – See chart below The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
myfxpedia Posted March 21, 2013 Author Report Share Posted March 21, 2013 18 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com Project Summary ( click here to update online ): Duration: 08 Months , 03 Weeks Number of Closed Trades Total | This Month: 245 | 4 Winning Trades Total | This Month: 197 | 4 Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month: +7323.8 | +429.3 18 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com: Wow, that was a big gaps with the Euro pairs at the start of the week and could this be the catalyst that is require to cool down the overheated market. As of last Friday we already have a 10 straight days without any pullback from the Equities market and as of now we have an indication from the future market on the S&P which shown a gap down and so we would expect the Dow to be in the Red tonight. Now what cause this gap in the Euro? Over the weekend, the Euro Group decided to gave Cyprus 10 billion Euro Bail Out money with a set of harsh condition to the Cyprus banks. After reading through the deal for the Bailout we gobsmack for the people of Cyprus or for any investors having their money deposited in the Cyprus banks. The deal is that depositors will be taxed by up to 9.9% for accounts over 100,000 Euro and for account that is less than 100,000 will be taxed at 6.75%. This is to help pay for the Bailout and what’s more? If you are Cypriots (locals) you now cannot empty for account on any particular day as the daily limit only allow you to withdraw 400 Euro. Ouch, That’s real hurt. On the initial reaction for any traders first reaction that comes to mind would think this deal would be Euro positive since the ECB just legally rob the Cypriots to the core and so would expect Euro to go north as we seen price action from last Friday half way through NY open. Well, traders that pre-empt such measure are now stand to lose with such a gap down. Now let us think about this for a minute, what the ECB has done is just unfair and potentially scare all investors around the world in thinking twice about depositing funds into any of the European Banks or and banks within the Europe and worst if people of trouble countries such as Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Greece and Italy would now questions when will the ECB going to apply such measure to their banks? This uncertainty and fears hanging in the air will not do any good for the Euro as money will find its way out of Europe to find refuge and ultimately could eventually the breakup of the Euro. Impact News today: 08:30 am (NY) AUD – Monetary Policy Meeting. Technical Analysis: With no impact news from the Europe and US today we do not expect prices swings as much but with the uncertainty and the discontent of the Cyprus Bailout, the market, traders and investors alike will probably let the policy makers hear their voice loud and clear. As from our last Thursday update, we are expecting to EURGBP to 0.8350 – 0.8400 or even 0.8250 and retest the long term uptrend line and GBPNZD – we expect this pair to retrace up toward 1.8650 – 1.8750 or higher and if the Equity market correction to start this particular pair could potentially go straight to 1.9350. If you think we are over optimistic then wait till you see the day that the Dow has 2 days drop of at least 200 points or when the Euro crisis hit up again then you will see how this pair behave. AUDCAD – This pair last Friday retested the uptrend line, bottom of the wedge and unable to breakdown , currently still ranging we still expect it to eventually breakdown from the wedge and move lower. For the 3 pairs that we hold above, our view and target still hold true and we reassess the situation after today or when prices get closer to our target. This morning we only exit 1 position of EURGBP upon gaps and used H1 to close that position as prices from initial gap trade above the first H1 candle as that could potentially retrace to close the gap. After exited we put in another pending Sell limit if price manage to close the gap. Please refer to last Friday charts as nothing much change from our view. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
myfxpedia Posted March 25, 2013 Author Report Share Posted March 25, 2013 20 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com Project Summary ( click here to update online ): Duration: 08 Months , 03 Weeks Number of Closed Trades Total | This Month: 245 | 4 Winning Trades Total | This Month: 197 | 4 Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month: +7323.8 | +429.3 20 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com: Cyprus, the tiny island over the past few days took centre stage in the world financial market and we are sure all traders has been follow the news with great interest as what will be unfold? The uncertainty and news, rumours....whatever have you, are fascinating from all leading media outlets, one minute we have rumours of Finance Minister forwarded his Resignation just to see a few hours later the Minister came out asking – where was that come from? Anyway, let us dissect the issue according to our personal understanding of the issue. First of all, it was a nasty surprise over the weekend for many market participants, including us all, in our view it was a heavy handed deal and unfair to the Cypriots. Maybe, the ECB and the IMF have run out of ideas on how to bandage the leaking wounds within the Euro Zone, OR, maybe this was a way for the Germans to get back at the Russians as many of the market watchers saying the sort of deals has the Germans written all over it and the Germans want to get back at the Russians for shutting of their Gas supply some years back by taxing the over-sea depositors in Cyprus banks and as according to the press, Cyprus is the financial hub for money laundering and they estimated that funds from depositors from Russia amount from somewhere between 20 to 35 billion Euro. Wow, no wonder, Russian strong man, Vladimir Putin is spruiking about the deal, calling it “unfair, unprofessional...”. Secondly, Banks in Cyprus have calling in for sick leave and will not resume for business until tomorrow, Thursday, we would not be surprise to see if they calling in for Long Service Leave and stay shut for weeks until they can find a solution to calm the market to avoid Banks raid by depositors. Since Monday, every account is only able to withdraw with a daily limit of 400 Euros and we suspect, many of the automatic teller machines has now running on empty and we won’t surprise to see lining up to cash out once Banks reopen for business regardless of whatever deals they strike. Thirdly, Cyprus is now in a very difficult, catch 22 situation such that is they accept the deal and pass the bill through parliament then many, many people will not be very happy and could potentially lead to social unrest and this could be contagious to other countries within the Euro Zone as people from other financial trouble like Spain, Italy, Ireland, Portugal will pose a question as to when will they going to cope such horrible deal?. But, by not accepting the deal they could risk the Bankruptcy and eventually being forced out of the Euro. Although, it’s only a tiny nation within the Euro Groups but it still can send the market into a tail spin. Anyway, this can of worm has open and just only a scratch on the surface so do not expect it will die down any sooner and the Euro will get messier over the coming months and then maybe “Druggie” the Saviour will come out with the recent famous rhetoric: “ ...do whatever it take to save the Euro”. Until then, we can’t see any reason to be bullish on the Euro, not until it get down to 1.1800 to 1.2100. Impact News today: 05:30 am (NY) GBP – Claimant Count Change; MPC Meeting minutes 08:30 am (NY) GBP – Annual Budget Release 02:00 pm (NY) USD – FOMC Economic Projections; FOMC Statement 02:30 pm (NY) USD – FOMC Press Conference 05:45 pm (NY) NZD – GDP 09:45 pm (NY) CNY – HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI. Technical Analysis: EURGBP – we are still looking for at least another 180 pips drop to our TP2 and retest the major uptrend line on Daily chart. Prices has now broke down from the short term uptrend line as well as broke down from the range. Currently, fundamentally and technically this pair has all the bearish signs written all over it, so we stick to it until our prices target is reach or until the major uptrend line being retested. GBPNZD – After forming a double bottom and broke out of the downtrend channel on Daily chart the pair has been consolidating sideway over the last 4 trading days. A clear break and close above 1.8430 will signal an advance toward to projected target @1.8750 there about and if we use double bottom projected target would take us to 1.8850. We also have order on AUD pairs. We will go into more details on this 2 pairs tomorrow. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
myfxpedia Posted March 26, 2013 Author Report Share Posted March 26, 2013 21 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com Project Summary ( click here to update online ): Duration: 08 Months , 03 Weeks Number of Closed Trades Total | This Month: 245 | 4 Winning Trades Total | This Month: 197 | 4 Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month: +7323.8 | +429.3 21 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com: After the Parliament ballot on Bailout deal was overwhelmingly rejected on taxing the depositors and so the negotiation between the Cyprus officials and the ECB continues. Traders and investors alike are now pinning hope on the ECB to come up on better solution to save Cyprus. The ECB, European Union and the IMF (aka Troika) is currently standing firm on their ground such that Cyprus will not get the Bailout Funds (10 billion Euros) it needs unless Cyprus can raise up to 5.8 billion Euros and complies with the original deal and that has the market rumour on Russian to be Cyprus Saviour by acquiring its trouble banks. Funnily from yesterday update we mentioned of possible banking shutdown for some extended time instead of reopen for business on Thursday as announced last Monday and late yesterday during NY session we have the Cyprus official announced that banks will take on the extended Vacation and will not open for business until Tuesday next week. Again, do not hold your breath as this could extend further, a Long Service Leave this time, if there’s no reasonable deal eventuated. Amazing isn’t it? In this day and age, a country that is being considered as a tax haven with billions of dollars from over-sea depositing into their banks and now financially cripple with the entire banking sector shut down for “Vacation” and we suspect that by this time probably all of their Automatic Teller Machines are now running empty. Certainly, account holders and the people of Cyprus, the Mums and Dads must now feel like sitting on fire. So, what will happen when they come back from vacation and reopen for business? We don’t think whatever the Government officials say, there will be a run on banks if not riots. Think about it. We have people being starve from their funds for more than a week to cover their daily needs so they will have to rush to banks for their dough to pay for goods, foods...etc. and there are people that no longer trust banks will try every mean, in every way close their accounts. We have no idea if you would do that but we know for sure from the team of myfxpedia would not hesitate to be the first in line to empty our account at first opportunity. Impact News today: 04:00 am (NY) EUR – French Flash Manufacturing PMI 04:30 am (NY) EUR – German Flash Manufacturing PMI 05:30 am (NY) GBP – Retail Sales 08:30 am (NY) CAD – Core Retail Sales 08:30 am (NY) USD – Unemployment Claims 10:00 am (NY) USD – Existing Home Sales; Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Technical Analysis: EAs mention above, traders and investors alike are still pinning hope on the Cyprus issue and we saw the Equities market were taking a breather yesterday but the risk currencies like Euro, Pound and Aussie do not share that view and end the day rather mute. Anyway, as mentioned yesterday we will do the technical analysis on the orders we had yesterday: AUDUSD and AUDCAD. We have the aggressive entry order on AUDUSD triggered yesterday so let see what’s on the chart. AUDUSD – Daily, we can see that the pair has manage to retrace to the upside and found strong Resistance at 61.8% Fib level. Momentum is overbought. We will go to H4 for our Entry order. AUDUSD – H4, here we can see prices is trading within symmetrical triangle between the 50% and 61.8% Fib levels. We had have continuous bearish Divergence, Prices trading at Strong Resistances, the Daily mother trend is down and so we had one Pending limit sell order as aggressive entry at Resistances Level and a Pending Sell Stop order which is clearly below the minor support (1.0340) as well as below the 50% fib level. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. 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myfxpedia Posted March 26, 2013 Author Report Share Posted March 26, 2013 22 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com Project Summary ( click here to update online ): Duration: 08 Months , 03 Weeks Number of Closed Trades Total | This Month: 245 | 4 Winning Trades Total | This Month: 197 | 4 Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month: +7323.8 | +429.3 22 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com: Cyprus trotting for banks has start taking shape: The Euro zone, particular the Troika has now given Cyprus the ultimatum timeline, either to accept the austerity measure as set out last Saturday in return for 10 billion Euro. What a debacle this is and as of now Cypriots are lining up at ATM to withdraw their daily maximum allow, just grab what they can in case they banks decided to go for Long Service Leave and there are talks that some banks have now even lower the daily limits withdrawal as well. They must have been running low on the cold hard cash in their vault. Also, there are business in Cyprus even refuse to accept Credit Card payment for goods purchase as well and so Credit cards holders are now just holding on a piece of plastic that have no value for the time being. Now, what’s so frustrating is the fact that they were aware of deterioration in Cyprus banking system for sometimes yet just keep blind eyes and hope it would go away. Yet, about 1 ½ years ago, the ECB officials did the bank Stress Test on the Cyprus 3 biggest banks and they all passed the Test and now the 2 biggest banks, namely Bank of Cyprus and Laiki Bank are on the brink of collapse. What does that tell you? Either the Cypriots cooked the books or the ECB officials that carried out the Test must be incompetently “numb nuts”......or perhaps there was a collusion of conspiracy between them. Going into the weekend, many of traders intensely watch out for any development and what will be unfold next Monday. As far as we concern, Whatever the outcome eventuate this weekend the FX market going to be a rough ride after this weekend as we all know the Equities markets has been under the burner since beginning of 2013 that rally on lack of volumes and definitely there are bears lurking around, waiting for opportunity to bounce on and this Cyprus debacle could happens to be the catalyst that they were looking for. Impact News today: 05:00 am (NY) EUR – German Business Climate Technical Analysis: Seriously, the last 2 weeks has been most difficult trading conditions of all, unless you are scalping. Prices swinging up and down by the minutes with no definitive trending so we were reluctant to take on news trade beside the pairs we already hold for the medium terms and we advise you just to be patient as things is slowly working in our favour. It’s hard to understand what cause the up moved in the AUD yesterday but let us try to put up few scenarios to you, just food for thoughts folks. Ok, as things happening in Cyprus there maybe capital flights slowly taking place and Australia, with the low sovereignty risk yet attractive with higher Interest Rate than any developed countries and one of a few country that is still carrying a AAA rating. Therefore, if there is going to be capitals flight looking for refuge, Australia no doubt would be a very attractive destination. On technical side, we can see that since the beginning of the week AUDUSD has been trading side way between the 50 – 61.8% Fib levels and many of traders could have taking Short positions after the pair closed the Gap with tight Stops, a perfect set up for Market Makers doing Stop Hunts. If we look at H4 chart we can see that, yesterday we had a bullish candle that break out of the Resistance and halted after about 50 pips higher and that’s probably would have clean out lots of Stops. Now, if it was truly just Stop Hunts then prices will probably fully reverse course today and runs lower. If prices close below yesterday H4 bullish candle then it confirmed our view and AUDUSD will start its journey down. In another technical view, if this breakout to the upside is genuine then it could have lots more to go with next target of 1.0550. Therefore our entry that was triggered yesterday, we will scale down our stop to about 8 pips above yesterday high. We also cancelled our pending Sell Stop on the pair but will add on to our position if prices pullback and trades below yesterday low. AUDCAD – Same scenario with this pair. Yesterday, a bullish candle managed to reach the top of the bullish wedge and triggered our 2nd entry, base on Divergence on Daily and Continuous Divergence on H4 . Now, on Daily prices has been in the overbought mode for sometimes and is in the process of forming Negative Divergence on Daily while on H4 we had have Continuous Negative Divergence. Note, prices is trading close to last year high (1.0775). Our stop on this pair will be about 65 pips above last year high. We are looking for this pair to correct and if prices break down below the wedge then 1st target will be the Daily uptrend support with 2nd target is the weekly uptrend line (Purple). The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
myfxpedia Posted March 28, 2013 Author Report Share Posted March 28, 2013 25 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com Project Summary ( click here to update online ): Duration: 08 Months , 03 Weeks Number of Closed Trades Total | This Month: 245 | 4 Winning Trades Total | This Month: 197 | 4 Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month: +7323.8 | +429.3 25 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com: Cyprus has finally seal the deal the Troika in the 11th hour and this deal was being view as positive for the Euro Group as evidence in the minute the FX market open during Asian session and a relief rally on the Asian stock markets. The question now is how do they mend and calm the nerves and confidence in the over-sea investors as now, it’s evident that their banking system is in a total mess. The major contributor sectors to the Cyprus economy were mainly its financial sector, namely banking, and Tourism and now with no confidence in their banking sector, Travellers will or might also pose questions before booking for holiday in Cyprus as well, firstly will there be demonstration, riots? Will there be cash to withdraw or do they have to physically carrying cash into the Cyprus for holiday to avoid being unable to withdraw any due to limitation of withdrawal.....? Anyway, tomorrow Tuesday as being schedule by the authority for banks to reopen for business. It’ll be interesting to see the reaction of Cypriots and account holders when banks do actually open and how do authority manage or impose temporary measure to stamp flight of funds from its banking system or even out of the country. The next few days or even weeks and months this issue of Cyprus will still be a closely watch topic. Impact News today: 01:15 pm (NY) USD – Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks. Technical Analysis: This market is really testing our patience of late. We have nothing to add today on the pairs we still holds and today with lack of high impact news we do not expect much movement except for the issue of Cyprus which will and can move the market if any unexpected development popping up. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
myfxpedia Posted March 28, 2013 Author Report Share Posted March 28, 2013 26 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com Project Summary ( click here to update online ): Duration: 08 Months , 03 Weeks Number of Closed Trades Total | This Month: 246 | 5 Winning Trades Total | This Month: 197 | 4 Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month: +7259.9 | +365.4 26 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com: Surprise, surprise....all banks in Cyprus are being ordered to stay shut until Thursday pending Government decision. Yesterday when Germany Finance Minister Dijsselbloem mistakenly saying that the case for Cyprus is sort of a template for the Euro zone, although he later retracted but the damage has already been done as we quickly saw the Euro dropped below 1.2950 then below 1.2900 rather quickly. What was so bad about that? Well, if what they enforced on banks in Cyprus and use that as template then the trouble countries such as Portugal, Spain, Italy Ireland and whatever might pop up later will facing the same strict criteria and this probably is an invitation to people in the trouble countries to take care of their savings themselves and stop relying on banks, thus, banks run is inevitable. We don’t know with the retracted statement has done anything to actually calm the market. Elsewhere, Japan BOJ governor Kuroda has reiterate that Japan determination to achieve its inflation target and its willingness to commit the so call unlimited QE until inflation target is achieved and this has further weaken the Yen. We suspect that the development around the Cyprus issues will take centre stage for sometimes, over the past week since news broke out the market reacts quite resilient to all bad news. Traders/investors still pinning on hope of “...doing whatever it take to keep the Euro together”. This sort of hype and hope from bandaging the bleeding wound will ultimately comes in a full blow catastrophe, it’s now not a question of will we have a correction in the Equity market or not but when and how soon? Impact News today: 08:30 am (NY) USD – Core Durable Goods Orders 10:00 am (NY) USD - CB Consumer Confidence; New Home Sales 08:30 pm (NY) NZD – ANZ Business Confidence. Technical Analysis: GBPNZD – As said many times in previous update this pair is currently building the bottom and our first target of 1.8750 is still achievable once 1.8430 is cleared and with market at peak of late and once correction taking its toll this pair will give us nice correction to the upside. We just have to be patience. Yes, we know we could have exit the pairs for tiny profits on average when prices at 1.8400 thereabout; but, on the same token, we could as well miss out on the run if the pair keep on running north. We have been with it for a while now so why cut ourselves short? EURGBP – This pair still has another 100 to 150 pips to the downside to have strong Major support or until the Major uptrend line (Daily) is being retested. We are looking for at least another 100 pips drop or thereabout to exit this pair. Note, the upside for this pair is currently limited, any meaning run to the upside is an opportunity to add on to Short position. AUDCAD – on Daily, this pair has reached the top of the channel and prices over the last 2 weeks has formed an expanding wedge with momentum being overbought and Negative Divergence is seen on Daily. Our initial target for this pair is when prices pullback toward MA(20) and 2nd target would be the opposite of Bollinger Band or major uptrend line, whichever come first. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
myfxpedia Posted March 28, 2013 Author Report Share Posted March 28, 2013 27 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com Project Summary ( click here to update online ): Duration: 08 Months , 04 Weeks Number of Closed Trades Total | This Month: 246 | 5 Winning Trades Total | This Month: 197 | 4 Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month: +7259.9 | +365.4 27 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com: Again, the market just ignore any bad data and keep power ahead although with single digit. This is truly frustrating and worrying and most of the times when reality bites it will be painful. The way we see this sort of market behaviour is like window dressing, it’s like a perfect storm in the making. Note that tomorrow going to be the last trading day of the month and since the beginning of the year the market has been in the bullish mode for the last 13 weeks. By any measure, a rally or a drop of more than 13 weeks without decent pullback is extremely rare and especially when the rally is without economic fundamental backing is bluntly dangerous. If you recalled on one of our update on 14th and 15th March 2013 that we mention scenario of 1936 and the assessment of Tyler Durban from Zerohedge.com you will see the similarities currently taking shapes. Tomorrow is also be the day that we’ll have a clear picture of the reaction from the Cypriots when Banks reopen, if and only if they open for business, don’t be surprised to see Authorities order Banks, bank personnel to take an extended sick leave. It’s not banking personnel have a choice of taking sick leave, they have been sick, just as the whole Cyprus banking debacle as well as its own Government have been sick since the day they caught from Greece. The more we read into the deal of the bail out for Cyprus the more uncertainties, worries and surely feeling sick in the stomach if you are a big account holders, they are now looking down the barrel of at least 40% haircut to their deposit. We are not quite sure that the term “haircut” is appropriate in this case.... it’s more like 2/3 of body chop. And what else? If your funds in the bank that isn’t insure then you are looking at about 80% chop, ouch. Definitely, there are many unhappy customers will soon make their point, one way or another the banking systems in Cyprus will never be the same, can never be trust, if not to say all banks in Euro Group are not to be trust at all. We will know later during NY trading session if banks will go ahead as schedule to open for business tomorrow. They are now facing problems from business owners who are running of cash to pay employees and shoppers are running low in cash to shop and so if we have further delay in the opening then businesses will suffer and likely a domino effect will taking shapes that eventually crumbling down and the Government of Cyprus have no choice but throwing the towel. Such a terrible predicament. Impact News today: 05:30 am (NY) GBP – Current Account 08:30 am (NY) CAD – Core CPI 10:00 am (NY) USD – Pending Home Sales. Technical Analysis: Our views on the coming week or 2 is not changing and yes we are still confident of the pairs that we currently hold that will playing out accordingly. Yesterday in the late NY sessions our pending sell order on NZDUSD triggered. See charts below: NZDUSD - H4 The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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