Daily Forex Analysis from FXCC

alayoua · May 31, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC May 31 2013

Will the Dollar Recover Too?

U.S. stocks and Treasury yields resumed their rise but the dollar failed to follow. Instead of trading higher, the greenback lost value against most of the major currencies. The EUR/USD rose above 1.30 and USD/JPY slipped below 101 after a round of weaker than expected economic data. Equity and fixed income traders shrugged off the data but FX traders refused to budge. Long dollar positions are still being cut which suggests that currency traders are still worried about the volatility in the financial markets and the eagerness of the Fed to taper asset purchases. U.S. equity and fixed income traders have completely ignored the 5% drop in the Nikkei overnight. Japanese stocks are 13% off its highs and if it continues to decline, it may have ripple effects over to U.S. markets and keep the dollar in corrective mode. However if the Nikkei stabilizes and starts to recover, then the dollar has a chance of joining the recovery.

https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/31052013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR

2013-05-31 08:30 GMT UK. Net Lending to Individuals (MoM)

2013-05-31 09:00 GMT EMU. Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY)

2013-05-31 12:30 GMT USA. Personal Spending (Apr)

2013-05-31 13:55 GMT USA. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (May)

FOREX NEWS

2013-05-31 04:01 GMT ‘Pennant’ pattern break out on EUR/USD targets a move north of 1.3200

2013-05-31 03:43 GMT Aussie advances capped below 0.9700

2013-05-31 02:30 GMT EUR/AUD off fresh 1.5-year highs below 1.35

2013-05-31 01:53 GMT AUD/JPY firm bounce off 97.00 support, sets eyes on 98.30

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Forex Technical Analysis EURUSD

MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis

HIGH 1.30593 LOW 1.30312 BID 1.30405 ASK 1.30410 CHANGE -0.06% TIME 08 : 39:18

OUTLOOK SUMMARY Up

TREND CONDITION Up trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Further bullish momentum might occur if the price manages to climb above the key resistance level at 1.3061 (R1). Next targets on the way could be exposed at 1.3081 (R2) and 1.3101 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, corrective action would be reasonable scenario in current price setup. Next on tap is seen support level at 1.3026 (S1), break here is required to enable our initial targets at 1.3006 (S2) and 1.2987 (S3)

Resistance Levels: 1.3061, 1.3081, 1.3101

Support Levels: 1.3026, 1.3006, 1.2987

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Forex Technical Analysis GBPUSD

MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis

HIGH 1.52392 LOW 1.52151 BID 1.52260 ASK 1.52269 CHANGE -0.02% TIME 08 : 39:19

OUTLOOK SUMMARY Up

TREND CONDITION Up trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY Medium

Upwards scenario: An evidence of further uptrend formation could be provided if the pair manages to surpass key resistive barrier at 1.5239 (R1). Execution of protective orders above that level might enable initial targets at 1.5257 (R1) and 1.5274 (R3). Downwards scenario: Recent upside momentum likely exhausted and we expect some stabilization ahead. Next supportive bastion lies at 1.5211 (S1). Prolonged movement below it might then expose our intraday targets at 1.5193 (S2) and 1.5176 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5239, 1.5257, 1.5274

Support Levels: 1.5211, 1.5193, 1.5176

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Forex Technical Analysis USDJPY

MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis

HIGH 101.281 LOW 100.679 BID 100.871 ASK 100.874 CHANGE 0.15% TIME 08 : 39:20

OUTLOOK SUMMARY Down

TREND CONDITION Sideway

TRADERS SENTIMENT Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY Medium

Upwards scenario: Price has comfortably ranged on the hourly timeframe however we see potential to overcome our next resistance level at 101.30 (R1) later on today. Our eventual targets locates at 101.60 (R2) and 101.90 (R3). Downwards scenario: If the price failed to gain momentum on the upside we expect retest of our key support level at 100.47 (S1). Clearance here is required to keep the downside extension intact and enable our lower targets at 100.16 (S2) and 99.87 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 101.30, 101.60, 101.90

Support Levels: 100.47, 100.16, 99.87

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · June 4, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jun 04 2013

Fitch cuts Cyprus to B-, negative outlook

Fitch Ratings has downgraded Cyprus's long-term foreign currency issuer default rating by one notch to 'B-' from 'B' while keeping a negative outlook due to the country's elevated economic uncertainty. The rating agency had placed Cyprus on negative watch in March. With this decision, Fitch pushed Cyprus further into junk territory, now 6 notches. "Cyprus has no flexibility to deal with domestic or external shocks and there is a high risk of the (EU/IMF) program going off track, with financing buffers potentially insufficient to absorb material fiscal and economic slippage," Fitch said in a statement.

The EUR/USD finished the day sharply higher, at one point trading all the way up to 1.3107 before leaking lower later in the day to close up 76 pips at 1.3070. Some analysts were pointing towards weaker than expected ISM data from the US as the main catalyst for the bullish move in the pair. Economic data out of the US will slow down a bit the next few days, but volatility is certain to pick up as we approach the ECB Rate Decision on Thursday, as well as the Non-Farm Payrolls number due out of the US on Friday.

https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/04062013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-06-04 08:30 GMT | UK. PMI Construction (May)

2013-06-04 09:00 GMT | EMU. Producer Price Index (YoY) (Apr)

2013-06-04 12:30 GMT | USA. Trade Balance (Apr)

2013-06-04 23:30 GMT | Australia. AiG Performance of Services Index (May)

FOREX NEWS :

2013-06-04 04:30 GMT | RBA Interest Rate Decision stays unchanged at 2.75%

2013-06-04 03:20 GMT | Will economic data later in week free EUR/USD from range bound behavior?

2013-06-04 02:13 GMT | EUR/AUD finds some ground in the 1.34 round area

2013-06-04 02:00 GMT | AUD/JPY advances capped below 97.50

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EURUSD :

HIGH 1.30804 LOW 1.30566 BID 1.30572 ASK 1.30575 CHANGE -0.14% TIME 08 : 22:51

OUTLOOK SUMMARY Up

TREND CONDITION Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: While price is quoted above the 20 SMA, our technical outlook would be positive. Yesterday high offers next resistance level at 1.3107 (R1). Any price action above it would suggest next targets at 1.3127 (R2) and 1.3147(S3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, price pattern suggests bearish potential if the instrument manages to overcome next support level at 1.3043 (S1). Possible price regress could expose our initial targets at 1.3023 (S2) and 1.3003 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 1.3107, 1.3127, 1.3147

Support Levels: 1.3043, 1.3023, 1.3003

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GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.53427 LOW 1.53101 BID 1.53115 ASK 1.53119 CHANGE -0.05% TIME 08 : 22:52

OUTLOOK SUMMARY Up

TREND CONDITION Up trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY Medium

Upwards scenario: Next barrier on the upside lie at 1.5343 (R1). Surpassing of this level might enable our initial target at 1.5362 (R2) and any further gains would then be limited to last resistive structure at 1.5382 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside our attention is shifted to the immediate support level at 1.5307 (S1). Break here is required to enable bearish forces and expose our intraday targets at 1.5287 (S2) and 1.5267 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5343, 1.5362, 1.5382

Support Levels: 1.5307, 1.5287, 1.5267

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USDJPY :

HIGH 99.88 LOW 99.333 BID 99.838 ASK 99.839 CHANGE 0.31% TIME 08 : 22:52

OUTLOOK SUMMARY Down

TREND CONDITION Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY Medium

Upwards scenario: Possible bullish penetration might face next challenge at 100.02 (R1). Break here is required to establish retracement action, targeting 100.32 (R2) en route towards to last resistance for today at 100.65 (R3). Downwards scenario: Penetration below the support at 99.31 (S1) is liable to put more downward pressure on the instrument in the near-term perspective. As a result our supportive means at 99.04 (S2) and 98.75 (S3) might be triggered.

Resistance Levels: 100.02, 100.32, 100.65

Support Levels: 99.31, 99.04, 98.75

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Training | Best Automatic Forex Trading Platforms | FXCC )

alayoua · June 5, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jun 05 2013

IMF's Lagarde urges Greece not to relax bailout efforts

MF head Christine Lagarde said in an interview for the Greek state TV on Tuesday that the country was making progress on its bailout program but that it nevertheless should increase efforts to combat tax evasion and implement reforms to attract foreign investors. 'Now is not the time to relax the effort,' Lagarde said, adding that "There are some really positive developments but obviously more needs to be done.” She listed tax evasion and reforms to spur foreign investment as the most important issues which need to be dealt with. This week EU, ECB and IMG inspectors return to Athens for another revision of the Greek bailout program, during which they are expected to focus on the Greek government's progress in reducing state employee numbers.

The EUR/USD traded in a narrow range today but still managed to finish the day in positive territory, closing up 11 pips at 1.3081. Economic data out of the both the EU and US was light, but will pick up as we approach the end of the week with the ECB Interest Rate Decision on Thursday, as well as US Non Farm Payrolls on Friday. However, before the real fireworks begin, some analysts are pointing to tomorrow’s ADP data out of the US as a possible catalyst for tomorrow’s price action. According to Sean Callow at Westpac, “we have the ADP report plus non manufacturing ISM jobs components tonight. There is a great deal of focus on jobs data in the US given recent speculation about Fed tapering its asset purchase programs. ADP disappointed in April but has not had much directional success in picking payrolls outcomes. The ISM report on Monday casts a long shadow over tonight's non manufacturing report. Arguably, markets will be set up for a softer outcome given the weaker US$ in recent sessions. Tonight's data could prove to be important for FX markets.”

https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/05062013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-06-05 08:28 GMT | UK. Markit Services PMI (May)

2013-06-05 09:00 GMT | EMU. Gross Domestic Product

2013-06-05 14:00 GMT | USA. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (May)

2013-06-05 18:00 GMT | USA. Fed's Beige Book

FOREX NEWS :

2013-06-05 05:11 GMT | USD/JPY back below 100; Australia GDP disappoints

2013-06-05 04:39 GMT | AUD/JPY searching for bids near 96.00

2013-06-05 03:26 GMT | EUR/USD technical indicators beginning to look more constructive

2013-06-05 01:46 GMT | AUD/USD breaking lower towards 0.9600 after Aussie GDP data

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EURUSD :

HIGH 1.30964 LOW 1.30653 BID 1.30899 ASK 1.30903 CHANGE 0.08% TIME 08 : 56:44

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Up trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: We are not expecting significant volatility increase today however upside risk aversion is seen above the next resistance level at 1.3107 (R1). Price evaluation above this level would suggest next targets at 1.3127 (R2) and 1.3147 (R3). Downwards scenario: While instrument trades above the moving averages, our short-term bias would stay positive though penetration below the support level at 1.3064 (S1) might open way towards to lower targets at 1.3043 (S2) and 1.3023 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3107, 1.3127, 1.3147

Support Levels: 1.3064, 1.3043, 1.3023

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GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.53379 LOW 1.52912 BID 1.53331 ASK 1.53336 CHANGE 0.14% TIME 08 : 56:45

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Medium- term tendency remains bullish as both moving averages are pointing up. Further progress above the resistance level at 1.5343 (R1) would open way towards to next targets at 1.5362 (R2) and 1.5382 (R3). Downwards scenario: Measures of support might be activating when the pair approaches the 1.5307 (S1). If it continues to extend its weakening below it we expect next targets to be exposed at 1.5287 (S2) and 1.5267 (S3) later on.

Resistance Levels: 1.5343, 1.5362, 1.5382

Support Levels: 1.5307, 1.5287, 1.5267

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USDJPY :

HIGH 100.462 LOW 99.385 BID 99.592 ASK 99.597 CHANGE -0.48% TIME 08 : 56:46

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: We see potential to test our resistive barrier at 99.75 (R1). Successful penetration above this mark might shift traders sentiment to the bullish side and validate our intraday targets at 100.02 (R2) and 100.32 (R3). Downwards scenario: Further downtrend development is limited now to the key supportive barrier at 99.31 (S1). Only loss here would enable our intraday targets at 99.04 (S2) and 98.75 (S3) on the downside.

Resistance Levels: 99.75, 100.02, 100.32

Support Levels: 99.31, 99.04, 98.75

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex ECN Brokers List | Auto Forex Trading Account | FXCC )

alayoua · June 6, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jun 06 2013

EUR Prime for a Breakout on ECB

The euro is prime for a breakout. Unlike other major currency pairs, EUR/USD traded in a relatively tight range throughout the European and North American sessions. On a technical basis, the currency pair stayed between the 100 and 200-day SMAs for the past 48 hours, which reflects the hesitation of investors who are waiting for a catalyst to take the currency pair out of its range. Tomorrow could be the perfect opportunity for a breakout in the pair with the European Central Bank scheduled to deliver its monetary policy decision. The ECB is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged leaving Mario Draghi's press conference as the primary focus for FX traders.

https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/06062013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-06-06 11:00 GMT | BoE Interest Rate Decision

2013-06-06 11:45 GMT | ECB Interest Rate Decision

2013-06-06 12:30 GMT | ECB Monetary policy statement and press conference

2013-06-06 12:30 GMT | USA. Initial Jobless Claims

FOREX NEWS :

2013-06-06 05:16 GMT | GBP/USD dealing around 1.54 ahead of BoE

2013-06-06 04:59 GMT | USD lower but holding above 82.50 DXY; Aussie smacked

2013-06-06 04:24 GMT | Economic data set to heighten volatility in EUR/USD

2013-06-06 00:24 GMT | AUD/USD cracks the big 0.95 figure down

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EURUSD :

HIGH 1.31089 LOW 1.30751 BID 1.31005 ASK 1.31009 CHANGE 0.07% TIME 08 : 35:19

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Sideway

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: EURUSD stabilized after the initial uptrend formation. Potential to move higher is seen above the next resistance level at 1.3116 (R1). Loss here would suggest next intraday targets at 1.3135 (R2) and 1.3155 (R3). Downwards scenario: We would shift our intraday technical outlook to the negative side if the price manage to penetrate below the key support at 1.3074 (S1). Clearance here is required to enable intraday targets at 1.3053 (S2) and 1.3033 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3116, 1.3135, 1.3155

Support Levels: 1.3074, 1.3053, 1.3033

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GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.54157 LOW 1.5381 BID 1.54005 ASK 1.54011 CHANGE -0.03% TIME 08 : 35:20

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Up trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Ascending structure on GBPUSD suggest possible correction ahead though break above the resistance at 1.5418 (R1) is liable to stimulate bullish pressure and validate interim target at 1.5443 (R2) en route final aim at 1.5469 (R3). Downwards scenario: Retracement action is possible if the price manages to overcome our initial support level at 1.5359 (S1). In such case we would suggest intraday targets at 1.5353 (S2) and 1.5327 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5418, 1.5443, 1.5469

Support Levels: 1.5359, 1.5353, 1.5327

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USDJPY :

HIGH 99.466 LOW 98.862 BID 99.348 ASK 99.352 CHANGE 0.29% TIME 08 : 35:21

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Next hurdle on the upside is seen at important technical level – 99.55 (R1). If the price manages to overcome it we expect further acceleration towards to our initial targets at 99.83 (R2) and 100.12 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside next challenge is seen at 98.86 (S1). Breakthrough of this mark would open way for a downside expansion and could possibly trigger our initial targets at 98.58 (S2) and 98.30 (R3) later on today.

Resistance Levels: 99.55, 99.83, 100.12

Support Levels: 98.86, 98.58, 98.30

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( FX Central Clearing Ltd )

alayoua · June 7, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jun 07 2013

Will Non-Farm Payrolls Save or Kill the Dollar?

The big story today in the financial markets was the sell-off in the U.S. dollar. The greenback fell quickly and aggressively against all of the major currencies right around the European close and held onto its losses to end the day down 2% against the Japanese Yen and more than 1% against the euro, British pound and Swiss Franc. There were a few different factors behind the sell-off in the greenback. The dollar initially traded lower on the optimistic comments from ECB President Draghi but those losses were contained to the EUR/USD. USD/JPY did not see any losses until 90 minutes before the European close at 12pm NY Time and only when it started to break down did the dollar collapse against all of the major currencies.

https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/07062013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-06-07 06:00 GMT | Germany. Trade Balance s.a. (Apr)

2013-06-07 08:30 GMT | UK. Total Trade Balance (Apr)

2013-06-07 12:30 GMT | USA. Nonfarm Payrolls (May)

2013-06-07 19:00 GMT | USA. Consumer Credit Change (Apr)

FOREX NEWS :

2013-06-07 04:46 GMT | USD/JPY attempts to fight back above 96.00 in Asia trade

2013-06-07 03:36 GMT | EUR/USD technical picture looks set for further advances ahead of NFP

2013-06-07 02:43 GMT | Aussie breaks 0.9550 as selling resumes in Asia

2013-06-07 01:40 GMT | USD/JPY breaks momentarily below 97 figure

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.32688 LOW 1.32355 BID 1.32534 ASK 1.32540 CHANGE 0.06% TIME 08 : 24:35

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Up trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Apparently market sentiment is clearly positive for the EURUSD as both moving averages are pointing up. Clearance of our resistance level at 1.3305 (R1) would open the way for an upside penetration towards to next targets at 1.3337 (R2) and 1.3370 (R3). Downwards scenario: Possible price depreciation is limited to the key support barrier at 1.3223 (S1). Break here is required to enable corrective action towards to lower targets at 1.3190 (S2) and 1.3157 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3305, 1.3337, 1.3370

Support Levels: 1.3223, 1.3190, 1.3157

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GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.56178 LOW 1.55808 BID 1.55949 ASK 1.55963 CHANGE -0.02% TIME 08 : 24:36

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Up trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Yesterday high offers a key resistive barrier at 1.5684 (R1). Subsequently loss here might create upside momentum and drive market price towards to our initial targets at 1.5732 (R2) and 1.5781 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: Possible downside extension might face next supportive barrier at 1.5564 (S1). Clearance here is required to open the way towards to interim target at 1.5517 (S2) and any further price regress would then be targeting 1.5467 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5684, 1.5732, 1.5781

Support Levels: 1.5564, 1.5517, 1.5467

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USDJPY :

HIGH 97.517 LOW 95.549 BID 96.696 ASK 96.701 CHANGE -0.27% TIME 08 : 24:37

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Down trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: After dipping lower today we see potential of market strengthening in near-term perspective. Next on tap is seen resistance level at 97.57 (R1). Break here would suggest next intraday targets at 98.07 (R2) and 98.58 (R3). Downwards scenario: Price regress below the support level at 95.53 (S1) would increase likelihood of failing towards to our key supportive barrier at 95.07 (S2) and any further market decline would then be targeting final support for today at 94.58 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 97.57, 98.07, 98.58

Support Levels: 95.53, 95.07, 94.58

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Free Forex Demo Accounts | Top ECN Forex Broker | Forex Blog | FXCC )

alayoua · June 10, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jun 10 2013

EUR/USD still searching for direction after NFP Data

After trading as high as 1.3284 ahead of the US Non Farm Payroll data, the EUR/USD was unable to hold onto early gains and ended the session 68 pips lower 1.3216. The lack of follow through after the sharp gains early in the week is somewhat concerning, but thus far the pair has been able to hold onto the critical support level located in the 1.3200 area. Some analysts are pointing towards a combination between the Non Farm Payroll data, as well as comments from ECB President Draghi at the most recent ECB meeting as reasons to expect limited upside for the EUR/USD in coming days. According to Marc Chandler, Head of Currency Strategy at BBH, “We warned that although the technical factors looked constructive for the dollar, the fundamentals, in the form of the ECB not delivering on the negative deposit rate (that Draghi said he had an open mind about) and additional aid for small and medium size businesses, were less supportive.”

Although he believes the jobs number was not strong enough to warrant any QE tapering in the near future, Chandler noted downside potential in the USD is limited at current levels. “We anticipated that the jobs data would not support notions from some Fed officials (and market participants) that tapering of the purchases of long-term assets could being as early as this month. Now we suspect the dollar's down move has been largely exhausted and we anticipate a recovery in the dollar into a new trading range,” Chandler concluded.

https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/10062013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-06-10 07:15 GMT | Switzerland. Real Retail Sales (YoY) (Apr)

2013-06-10 08:30 GMT | EMU. Sentix Investor Confidence (Jun)

2013-06-10 12:15 GMT | Canada. Housing Starts s.a (YoY) (May)

2013-06-10 23:01 GMT | UK. RICS Housing Price Balance (May)

FOREX NEWS :

2013-06-10 04:37 GMT | EUR/USD still searching for direction after NFP Data

2013-06-10 03:35 GMT | Kiwi attempting bounce towards 0.7900

2013-06-10 02:51 GMT | AUD/JPY consolidating below 92.50

2013-06-10 02:20 GMT | USD/JPY advances capped below 98.50

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.32285 LOW 1.31852 BID 1.31975 ASK 1.31978 CHANGE -0.13% TIME 08 : 26:07

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Market sentiment is neutral according to the technical indicators. Though any prolonged movement above the resistive measure at 1.3242 (R1) would suggest next intraday targets at 1.3277 (R2) and 1.3311 (R3). Downwards scenario: Medium-term ascending structure might lose its power if the price manages to overcome next support level at 1.3187 (S1). Clearance here might determine intraday negative bias and expose our initial targets at 1.3159 (S2) and 1.3129 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3242, 1.3277, 1.3311

Support Levels: 1.3187, 1.3159, 1.3129

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GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.55627 LOW 1.55179 BID 1.55262 ASK 1.55274 CHANGE -0.17% TIME 08 : 26:08

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

Upwards scenario: GBPUSD remains under correction mode after initial uptrend formation. However strengthening above the next resistive structure at 1.5565 (R1) might activate bullish pressure and expose our intraday targets at 1.5602 (R2) and 1.5641 (R3). Downwards scenario: Key support level lies at 1.5486 (S1). Penetration below it might shift medium-term tone to the negative side. Our intraday targets locates at 1.5449 (S2) and 1.5411 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5565, 1.5602, 1.5641

Support Levels: 1.5486, 1.5449, 1.5411

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USDJPY :

HIGH 98.427 LOW 97.71 BID 98.235 ASK 98.240 CHANGE 0.73% TIME 08 : 26:09

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

Upwards scenario: Market gradually recovers previous week losses. If pair gains momentum on the upside and overcome our next resistance at 98.58 (R1), we would suggest next resistances at 98.95 (R2) and 99.33 (R3) as possible targets. Downwards scenario: On the other hand, depreciation below the technically important support level at 97.77 (S1) would allow further market decline on the medium-term perspective. Possible targets lies at 97.36 (S2) and 96.92 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 98.58, 98.95, 99.33

Support Levels: 97.77, 97.36, 96.92

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Software | Forex Basics | Forex ECN Trading Account | FXCC )

alayoua · June 11, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jun 11 2013

USD/JPY searching for direction after BoJ Meeting

The USD/JPY has experienced a fairly volatile Asia session, at one point declining all the way down to 97.78 before finding support and currently consolidating near the 98.30 level. The main catalyst for the sharp drop appeared to come right after the Bank of Japan announced they wouldn’t be making any changes to current monetary policy.

Analysts on the FXStreet.com team noted although many had expected the policy to remain unchanged, there were rumors circling of possible adjustments to help control the recent government bond market volatility which may have helped spark the initial declines when market participants saw the adjustments to current policy were not made. “The Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting offered no particular response to the latest episodes of market volatility in JGB, which includes the failure to change maturities of fixed rate operations in order to ease bond market volatility. Also, there had been some rumors about a proposal to extend the loans to 2 years, something that was not accepted, leading to a strong selling in both the Nikkei and USD/JPY,” FXstreet.com team concluded.

https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/11062013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

N/A | Japan. BoJ Monetary Policy Statement

N/A | Germany. Germany Constitutional court ruling on OTM bond buying

2013-06-11 08:30 GMT | UK. Manufacturing Production

2013-06-11 14:00 GMT | UK. NIESR GDP Estimate

2013-06-11 05:00 GMT | USD/JPY searching for direction after BoJ Meeting

2013-06-11 04:43 GMT | 10% appreciation by the USD in 12-18 months - Societe Generale

2013-06-11 04:34 GMT | AUD/USD faces deeper falls on clean 0.94 breakout - JPMorgan

2013-06-11 04:01 GMT | GBP/USD possibly gunning for 1.5800 - 2ndSkies

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.32917 LOW 1.32474 BID 1.32702 ASK 1.32705 CHANGE 0.11% TIME 08 : 27:25

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Market remains relatively stable, though clearance of next resistance level at 1.3292 (R1) might initiates bullish pressure. Above the local high locates our resistive means at 1.3321 (R2) and 1.3350 (R3). Downwards scenario: Activation of bearish forces is possible below the support level at 1.3244 (S1). Clearance here would suggest next interim target at 1.3216 (S2) and if the price holds its momentum we would suggest final aim at 1.3187 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3292, 1.3321, 1.3350

Support Levels: 1.3244, 1.3216, 1.3187

----------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.5602 LOW 1.55563 BID 1.55820 ASK 1.55825 CHANGE 0.06% TIME 08 : 27:25

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Resistance level at 1.5602 (R1) acts as reference point for further market strengthening. Break here is required to enable next interim target at 1.5635 (R2) en route towards to final aim for today at 1.5667 (R3). Downwards scenario: Though, possibility of correction is high. Devaluation below the support at 1.5552 (S1) would initiate bearish pressure. On the way our next interim support at 1.5521 (S2) en route to final target at 1.5488 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5602, 1.5635, 1.5667

Support Levels: 1.5552, 1.5521, 1.5488

--------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 99.056 LOW 97.791 BID 98.226 ASK 98.231 CHANGE -0.52% TIME 08 : 27:26

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: USDJPY commence correction phase and currently any upside action is limited to the next resistive structure at 98.58 (R1). Break here is required to enable upside pressure towards to intraday targets at 98.95 (R2) and 99.33 (R3). Downwards scenario: Prolonged movement below the supportive measure at 97.77 (S1) is required to activate downtrend expansion. Next aim on the way would be mark at 97.36 (S2) and then final target could be met at 96.97 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 98.58, 98.95, 99.33

Support Levels: 97.77, 97.36, 96.97

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · June 12, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jun 12 2013

Strong technical set up helps EUR/USD post highest close since mid February

The EUR/USD finished the session sharply higher, surpassing the critical resistance level near 1.3300 and closing up 57 pips at 1.3312 (highest daily close since Feb 19th). In what was a quiet day of economic releases from both the EU and US, analysts were searching for catalyst to help explain the impressive strength. Derek Halpenny, European Head of Global Markets Research at Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ, was pointing towards recent hawkish comments from ECB President Draghi as an initial catalyst for the sharp move higher. “The euro remains incredibly solid and has advanced further versus the dollar. ECB President Draghi did speak yesterday and stated that rates would rise once the euro-zone economy improved – a statement of the obvious.”

In further discussing his views, Halpenny went on to comment, “We suspect that the current euro demand is probably emanating from the unwinding of long high yielding currency positions. Both the dollar and the euro were likely used as funding currencies for these positions and hence the euro is modestly out-performing the dollar.” To conclude his view, Halpenny went on to say he expects the EUR/USD will start to decline once the position unwind is completed.

https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/12062013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

N/A | Germany. Constitutional court ruling on OMT bond buying

2013-06-12 06:00 GMT | Germany. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (May)

2013-06-12 08:30 GMT | UK. Claimant Count Change (May)

2013-06-12 21:00 GMT | New Zeland. Monetary Policy Statement

FOREX NEWS :

2013-06-12 04:10 GMT | German CPI next: Impact on EUR/USD

2013-06-12 03:43 GMT | USD/CAD has found a short term base - TDS

2013-06-12 03:36 GMT | AUD/JPY advances capped near 91.50

2013-06-12 02:40 GMT | AUD/USD inching higher towards 0.9500

-------------------------

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.33172 LOW 1.32972 BID 1.33003 ASK 1.33004 CHANGE -0.1% TIME 08 : 24:49

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Upwards penetration is limited now to next resistive structure at 1.3321 (R1). Break here is required to enable higher targets at 1.3350 (R2) and 1.3378 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, depreciation below the support level at 1.3271 (S1) would suggest next intraday target at 1.3244 (S2) and any further weakening would then be limited to final support level at 1.3216 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3321, 1.3350, 1.3378

Support Levels: 1.3271, 1.3244, 1.3216

--------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.56519 LOW 1.56337 BID 1.56362 ASK 1.56370 CHANGE -0.06% TIME 08 : 24:50

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Possible upwards formation is limited now to resistive measure at 1.5654 (R1). A break above it would suggest next intraday target at 1.5686 (R2) and if the price holds its momentum we can expect price increase towards to final resistance at 1.5717 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside our focus is shifted to the next support level at 1.5618 (S1). Loss here is required to push the price towards to our next interim targets at 1.5584 (S2) en route towards to final support at 1.5550 (S3)

Resistance Levels: 1.5654, 1.5686, 1.5717

Support Levels: 1.5618, 1.5584, 1.5550

------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 96.778 LOW 95.918 BID 96.738 ASK 96.743 CHANGE 0.76% TIME 08 : 24:51

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: A violation of next resistance at 97.29 (R1) might call for a run towards to next target at 97.71 (R2) and any further appreciation would then be limited to final target at 98.13 (R3). Downwards scenario: Negative developments might be settled below the important support level at 96.21 (S1). Any price action below it would then be targeting support at 95.79 (S2) and final target could be exposed at 95.37 (S3) mark.

Resistance Levels: 97.29, 97.71, 98.13

Support Levels: 96.21, 95.79, 95.37

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( ECN Currency Trading Blog | Forex Training and Tips | FXCC )

alayoua · June 13, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jun 13 2013

IMF approves €657 million bailout tranche for Portugal

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved the seventh tranche of Portugal's bailout Wednesday and gave the country more time to meet its budget-cutting goals. The IMF will disburse the next tranche worth €657 million after the successful review of a bailout program that started in 2011. Meanwhile, the fund eased conditions, allowing Portugal to lower its budget deficit to 3% of GDP by 2015 from 6.4% in 2012, instead of by 2014. "The Portuguese authorities have put forward a program that is economically well-balanced and has growth and job creation at its center", IMF acting Managing Director John Lipsky wrote in a statement.

With Chinese markets back in business after a 5 day weekend closed over holidays, local share markets were dumped with Nikkei index leading the way lower losing at one point more than -6%. USD posted fresh 4-month lows at 80.66 DXY with USD/JPY printing fresh 2-month lows at 94.36, and EUR/USD 3-month highs above 1.3360. Gold and Oil showed little changes on the move. Australian job market surprised to the upside adding 1.1k more jobs to the economy when -10k were expected, making AUD/USD dip below the 0.9450 level. RBNZ left interest rates unchanged at 2.5%, with NZD/USD hanging around the 0.79 figure.

http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical-market-analysis-june-13-2013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-06-13 08:00 GMT | EMU. ECB Monthly Report

2013-06-13 12:30 GMT | USA. Retail Sales (MoM) (May)

2013-06-13 14:00 GMT | USA. Business Inventories (Apr)

2013-06-13 23:50 GMT | Japan. BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

FOREX NEWS :

2013-06-13 04:55 GMT | USD/JPY technical set up continues to deteriorate as bears maintain control

2013-06-13 04:27 GMT | GBP/USD resting below 1.57 figure

2013-06-13 03:49 GMT | EUR/JPY cracks 127.00, further selling pressure revealed

2013-06-13 03:15 GMT | USD/CAD, sustained weakness below 1.0170/75 needed – TDS

--------------------

Forex Technical Analysis EURUSD :

MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis

http://blog.fxcc.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/15.png

Upwards scenario: Uptrend evolvement remains in power. Further appreciation above the resistive barrier at 1.3371 (R1) is compulsory to commence positive market structure and validate next intraday targets at 1.3395 (R2) and 1.3418 (R3). Downwards scenario: Any downside fluctuations remains for now limited to the key support barrier at 1.3335 (S1). Only clear break here would be a signal of possible market easing towards to our targets at 1.3311 (S2) and 1.3288 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 1.3371, 1.3395, 1.3418

Support Levels: 1.3335, 1.3311, 1.3288

---------------------------

Forex Technical Analysis GBPUSD :

MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis

http://blog.fxcc.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/23.png

Upwards scenario: market looks overbought and possibility of retracement is high. Though loss of the next resistive barrier at 1.5706 (R1) might push the price towards to our targets at 1.5733 (R2) and 1.5761 (R3) later on today. Downwards scenario: We placed our support level right above the Monday high at 1.5654 (S1). Clearance here is required to open way towards to our interim target at 1.5626 (S2) and then final aim locates at 1.5598 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5706, 1.5733, 1.5761

Support Levels: 1.5654, 1.5626, 1.5598

-------------------------

Forex Technical Analysis USDJPY :

MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis

http://blog.fxcc.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/33.png

Upwards scenario: Medium term bias is clearly negative on USDJPY however we expect see some recovery action later on today. Key resistive bastion lies at 95.12 (R1). If the price manages to break it, we would suggest next targets at 95.67 (R2) and 96.21 (R3). Downwards scenario: Risk of price depreciation is seen below the support level at 93.90 (S1). A fall below it might prolong the weakness towards to next target at 93.40 (S2) and any further market decline would then be limited to final support at 92.91 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 95.12, 95.67, 96.21

Support Levels: 93.90, 93.40, 92.91

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Currency Trading Blog | Best ECN Broker | Forex Trading System | FXCC )

alayoua · June 14, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jun 14 2013

Draghi says OMT necessary, effective and within ECB mandate

Mario Draghi defended the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) a day after the ECB and the Bundesbank confronted in a public hearing at Germany's top court on the legality of the bond-buying program. ECB President said the program was necessary, effective and in line with the ECB mandate. He pointed that benefits are 'visible to everybody' across Europe including Germany, in particular, falling bond yields in Italy and Spain.

"It is fully in line with our mandate because it is designed to preserve price stability for the euro area and uses instruments foreseen in the Statute," Draghi said according to the transcript of a video statement after receiving the responsible leadership award 2013 from the European School of Management and Technology in Berlin. Meanwhile, Draghi urged eurozone leaders to stick reforms and to push for greater integration "to build a stronger economic and monetary union based on shared sovereignty and greater legitimacy". "For the euro area now to move forward and establish itself on stronger ground, we need all decision makers to take their responsibilities," Draghi said.

https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/14062013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-06-14 09:00 GMT | EMU. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (May)

2013-06-14 12:30 GMT | USA. Producer Price Index (YoY) (May)

2013-06-14 13:15 GMT | USA. Industrial Production (MoM) (May)

2013-06-14 13:55 GMT | USA. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Jun)

FOREX NEWS :

2013-06-14 04:21 GMT | GBP/USD treading water around 1.57 figure

2013-06-14 03:08 GMT | AUD/USD dealing with 0.9600 bids

2013-06-14 01:06 GMT | USD/JPY knocks on 94.50 session lows

2013-06-14 01:06 GMT | EUR/USD, look for highly corrective pullbacks to join bulls - 2ndSkies

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.33745 LOW 1.33422 BID 1.33468 ASK 1.33474 CHANGE -0.21% TIME 08 : 20:56

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Sideway

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: While instrument trades above the 20 SMA, it keeps immediate upside potential. Next resistance is seen at 1.3379 (R1), break above it might extend gains towards to next targets at 1.3412 (R2) and 1.3444 (R3). Downwards scenario: Failure to establish positive bias today might lead to the recovery action in near term perspective. Next immediate support locates at 1.3305 (S1). Break here is required to enable bearish pressure towards to our targets at 1.3272 (S2) and 1.3239 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3379, 1.3412, 1.3444

Support Levels: 1.3305, 1.3272, 1.3239

------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.57199 LOW 1.56943 BID 1.57021 ASK 1.57034 CHANGE -0.1% TIME 08 : 20:57

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Up trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: GBPUSD keeps bullish potential. Next hurdle on the upside might be found at 1.5737 (R1). Break here would open road towards to our interim aim at 1.5768 (R2) and enable final intraday resistive measure at 1.5799 (R3). Downwards scenario: Retracement action might occur below the key support level at 1.5671 (S1). Break here would open road towards to next supportive measure at 1.5639 (S2) and then final supportive bastion could be found at 1.5606 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5737, 1.5768, 1.5799

Support Levels: 1.5671, 1.5639, 1.5606

--------------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 95.797 LOW 94.429 BID 95.309 ASK 95.314 CHANGE -0.05% TIME 08 : 20:57

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Instrument resumed consolidation phase from its initial downtrend formation. Resistance level at 95.67 (R1) is a key technical point on the upside. Penetration above it would suggest higher targets at 96.21 (R2) and 96.75 (R3) later on today. Downwards scenario: Market decline below the supportive mean at 94.38 (S1) might trigger bearish pressure and enable lower target at 93.85 (S2). Final target for today locates at 93.26 (R3) price level.

Resistance Levels: 95.67, 96.21, 96.75

Support Levels: 94.38, 93.85, 93.26

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( FX Central Clearing Ltd )

alayoua · June 17, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jun 17 2013

Dollar Outlook Next Week Hinges on Bernanke

The month of June has proven to be an extremely volatile period in the forex market as the U.S. dollar fell aggressively against many major currencies. Unfortunately we can't expect the markets to calm anytime soon with a heavy dose of economic data expected from countries around the world. The U.K. and Australia will release monetary policy minutes, the Swiss National Bank will hold a monetary policy meeting and of course - we also have the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement on the calendar. In addition to these event risks, Eurozone PMIs, New Zealand GDP, UK retail sales, US manufacturing data and Canadian retail sales are also scheduled for release. Yet there's no question that of all these events, the most important will be the Fed meeting. Much of the volatility in the financial markets has been caused by the uncertainty of Fed policy. There's been a lot of talk about tapering asset purchases, which has caused stocks to weaken but at the same time, central bank officials and noted Fed watchers have stressed that a reduction in Quantitative Easing does not equate to tightening. They are absolutely right and we think that the rest of the market is beginning to realize this connection as well but based on the reaction to Jon Hilsenrath's article this week, there are still a subset who need convincing.

https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/17062013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

24h | All. G8 Meeting

2013-06-17 09:00 GMT | EMU. Labour cost (Q1)

2013-06-17 09:00 GMT | EMU. Trade Balance n.s.a. (Apr)

2013-06-17 12:30 GMT | USA. NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun)

FOREX NEWS :

2013-06-17 04:55 GMT | EUR/AUD testing 1.3850 support on Euro weakness

2013-06-17 04:02 GMT | EUR/USD dips to fresh session lows ahead of G-8

2013-06-17 02:23 GMT | USD/JPY extends gains above 94.50

2013-06-17 00:49 GMT | Aussie pops above 0.96 USD

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.33573 LOW 1.33184 BID 1.33187 ASK 1.33191 CHANGE -0.16% TIME 08:14:08

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral

TREND CONDITION : Sideway

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: EURUSD trapped to the consolidation phase. Local high at 1.3358 (R1) offers a key resistance level. Break here is required to take the pair towards to initial targets at 1.3379 (R2) and 1.3399 (R3). Downwards scenario: Penetration below the support level at 1.3294 (S1) might maintain a negative tone and prolong corrective action. Price devaluation would then be targeting our supportive measures at 1.3272 (S2) and 1.3250 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 1.3358, 1.3379, 1.3399

Support Levels: 1.3294, 1.3272, 1.3250

---------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.57319 LOW 1.56927 BID 1.56935 ASK 1.56944 CHANGE -0.02% TIME 08:14:09

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Sideway

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

Upwards scenario: GBPUSD is approaching our next resistive barrier at 1.5737 (R1) on the upside. Surpassing of this level may initiate bullish pressure towards to next visible targets at 1.5768 (R2) and 1.5799 (R3). Downwards scenario: If the price failed to overcome our next resistance level we expect market easing below the support level at 1.5671 (S1). Loss here would shift our intraday outlook to the bearish side with expected targets at 1.5639 (S2) and 1.5606 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5737, 1.5768, 1.5799

Support Levels: 1.5671, 1.5639, 1.5606

----------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 94.837 LOW 94.098 BID 94.722 ASK 94.726 CHANGE 0.67% TIME 08:14:09

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Sideway

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

Upwards scenario: Upside formation is limited now to the next resistive barrier at 95.05 (R1). Clearance here is required to provide a space for a move towards to next target at 95.53 (R2) and then final aim would be 96.04 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, an element of supportive measures could be found at 94.24 (S1). Clearance here would suggest possible downtrend development towards to initial targets, located at 93.75 (S2) and 93.27 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 95.05, 95.53, 96.04

Support Levels: 94.24, 93.75, 93.27

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Account | Best ECN Forex Brokers | Forex Trading Systems | FXCC )

alayoua · June 18, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jun 18 2013

Dollar Strengthens, Stocks Soar as Traders Position for FOMC

Yesterday we saw how much of a difference a few hours can make with the dollar recovering earlier losses to end the North American session higher against most of the major currencies. With only one day to go before the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement, the big move in equities and the reversal in currencies suggests that traders are beginning to position for FOMC. Yet taking a look at how the various markets are trading, there seems to be more confusion than clarity on what the central bank will say or do. The rise in the dollar and the increase in U.S. Treasury yields imply that currency and equity traders believe that the main takeaway from this week's meeting will be that the central bank is gearing up to taper. However the rally in U.S. equities suggest that stock traders believe that the Fed will make a point to distinguish tapering from tightening and reassure investors that cheap and easy money will remain available for a very long period of time. If Bernanke is successful in convincing the market that they will take a very gradualist approach to tapering, the U.S. dollar could give up its gains. However if Bernanke emphasizes the central bank's plans for tapering over its difference with tightening, the dollar could extend its rise.

https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/18062013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

N/A | UK. BOE Inflation Letter

2013-06-18 06:00 GMT | EMU. ECB President Draghi's Speech

2013-06-18 08:30 GMT | UK. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (May)

2013-06-18 12:30 GMT | USA. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (May)

FOREX NEWS :

2013-06-18 05:03 GMT | GBP/USD capped at 1.57 ahead of UK CPI

2013-06-18 04:38 GMT | EUR/USD braces for volatile week

2013-06-18 03:28 GMT | AUD/JPY hovering above 90.00

2013-06-18 02:58 GMT | GBP/JPY advances remain capped below 149.50

----------------------

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.33676 LOW 1.33466 BID 1.33526 ASK 1.33527 CHANGE -0.1% TIME 08 : 36:46

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral

TREND CONDITION : Sideway

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Current price setup might suggest volatility increase in near term perspective. If the price get acceleration on the upside and manages to surpass our resistive measure at 1.3382 (R1), we would suggest next targets at 1.3402 (R2) and 1.3422 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, an element of supportive measures could be found at 1.3326 (S1). Clearance here would suggest possible downtrend development towards to initial targets at 1.3307 (S2) and 1.3286 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3382, 1.3402, 1.3422

Support Levels: 1.3326, 1.3307, 1.3286

------------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.57227 LOW 1.56943 BID 1.56961 ASK 1.56970 CHANGE -0.14% TIME 08 : 36:47

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral

TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Clearance of our next resistive structure at 1.5739 (R1) would open way towards to our initial target at 1.5766 (R2) and any further market rise would then be targeting 1.5796 (R3). Downwards scenario: Any downside fluctuations remains for now limited to the next support level at 1.5679 (S1), only clear break here would be a signal of possible market easing towards to next targets at 1.5652 (S2) and 1.5624 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 1.5739, 1.5766, 1.5796

Support Levels: 1.5679, 1.5652, 1.5624

-------------------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 94.955 LOW 94.436 BID 94.797 ASK 94.799 CHANGE 0.34% TIME 08 : 36:48

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Sideway

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: USDJPY stabilized on the hourly chart however appreciation above the next resistance at 95.23 (R1) might be a good catalyst for a recovery action towards to next targets at 95.66 (R2) and 96.11 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, if the pair accelerates on the downside and manage to break our next support level at 94.26 (S1), it is likely to trigger our next support level at 93.82 (S2) and 93.37 (S3) later on today.

Resistance Levels: 95.23, 95.66, 96.11

Support Levels: 94.26, 93.82, 93.37

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Account | Best ECN Forex Brokers | Forex Trading Systems | FXCC )

alayoua · June 19, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jun 19 2013

EUR - Lifted by Stronger Investor Confidence

The euro traded higher against all of the major currencies today thanks to the improvement in Eurozone and German investor sentiment. The Eurozone ZEW survey rose to 30.6 from 27.6 and while investors grew less optimistic about current conditions in Germany, their confidence in future conditions improved with the expectations component of the German ZEW rising to 38.5 from 36.4. With the European Central Bank taking additional steps to stimulate the economy, this data indicates that investors are looking for a stronger recovery. In a farewell conference for Bank of Israel Governor Stanley Fischer today, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi talked about ECB monetary policy. He said the central bank would consider non-standard measures including the possibility of negative deposit rates. Draghi said, "We will look with an open mind at these measures that are especially effective in our institutional setup and that fall within our mandate." Yet he warned that these non-standard measures could also lead to unintentional consequences. Parts of the Eurozone have been unresponsive to monetary policy and Draghi has set to regain its steering capacity. He pointed out that the introduction of non-standard policy measures along with standard measures helped prevent the materialization of deflation risk.

https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/19062013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-06-19 08:30 GMT | UK. Bank of England Minutes

2013-06-19 18:00 GMT | USA. Fed Interest Rate Decision

2013-06-19 18:30 GMT | USA. Fed's Monetary Policy Statement and press conference

2013-06-19 22:45 GMT | New Zeland. Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q1)

FOREX NEWS :

2013-06-19 04:38 GMT | EUR/USD technical set up favors further upside ahead of FOMC

2013-06-19 03:37 GMT | GBP/JPY trapped inside the 149.50/148.50 range

2013-06-19 03:36 GMT | Bernanke not likely to backtrack on previous tapering comments - NAB

2013-06-19 03:03 GMT | EUR/AUD edging higher towards 1.4200

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.34023 LOW 1.33847 BID 1.33906 ASK 1.33911 CHANGE -0.03% TIME 08 : 30:42

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Fresh portion of the economic data releases might increase volatility later on today. Clearance of our next resistive barrier at 1.3402 (R1) is required to push the price towards to our next visible targets at 1.3424 (R2) and 1.3445 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, the 1.3381 (S1) mark is a key support level on the downside. Below here is a route towards to next supports at 1.3360 (S2) and 1.3339 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3402, 1.3424, 1.3445

Support Levels: 1.3381, 1.3360, 1.3339

-----------------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.56443 LOW 1.56177 BID 1.56325 ASK 1.56331 CHANGE -0.06% TIME 08 : 30:43

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: The recent price acceleration on the downside suggests a possible recovery action. Next on tap is resistive barrier at 1.5657 (R1) on the way towards to higher targets at 1.5677 (R2) and 1.5697(R3). Downwards scenario: If the price failed to overcome our next resistance level we expect further market decline below the support level at 1.5616 (S1). Our intraday targets locates at 1.5597 (S2) and 1.5578 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5657, 1.5677, 1.5697

Support Levels: 1.5616, 1.5597, 1.5578

-----------------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 95.664 LOW 95.177 BID 95.336 ASK 95.339 CHANGE 0.01% TIME 08 : 30:43

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Current price setup might suggest volatility increase in near term perspective. If the price get acceleration on the upside and manages to surpass our resistive measure at 95.66 (R1), we would suggest next targets at 95.96 (R2) and 96.26 (R3). Downwards scenario: Fractals level at 95.05 (S1) offers a key resistive measure on the downside. Break here is required to enable bearish pressure and validate next target at 94.75 (S2). Final support for today locates at 94.45 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 95.66, 95.96, 96.26

Support Levels: 95.05, 94.75, 94.45

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Forex Trading News | ECN Trading Account | Forex ECN Broker | FXCC )

alayoua · June 20, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jun 20 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jun 20 2013

Bernanke: The Fed is ready to start tapering

Following the Fed decision to hold rates and the optimistic FOMC economic projections, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke indicated that the Fed are ready to start tapering QE. Bernanke began by highlighting the optimistic growth forecasts for 2013 and 2014, making reference to the hotly anticipated exit strategy, commenting, on “setting fed funds target over medium term and continuing purchases of MBS”. Further, he added that an improvement in the unemployment rate to 6.5% should not be considered to be a trigger for an immediate rate hike. He added that he is personally expecting this to occur during 2015.

https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/20062013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-06-20 07:30 GMT | Switzerland. SNB Interest Rate Decision

2013-06-20 08:30 GMT | UK. Retail Sales

2013-06-20 12:30 GMT | USA. Initial Jobless Claims

2013-06-20 14:00 GMT | USA. Existing Home Sales Change

FOREX NEWS :

2013-06-20 04:42 GMT | EUR/USD unable to hold a bid after FOMC release deemed hawkish

2013-06-20 04:21 GMT | USD/JPY breaches the 97.00 handle

2013-06-20 03:45 GMT | China's overnight repo surges to 25%

2013-06-20 03:28 GMT | NZD/JPY continues to consolidate around 76.00

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.3302 LOW 1.32491 BID 1.32493 ASK 1.32496 CHANGE -0.35% TIME 08 : 04:08

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Down trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: EURUSD broke all support levels yesterday and determined clear negative bias. Recovery action is possible above the resistive structure at 1.3302 (R1). Clearance here would enable higher targets at 1.3324 (R2) and 1.3346 (R3). Downwards scenario: Next on tap locates support level at 1.3245 (S1). Possible penetration below it would open way towards to next target at 1.3223 (S2) and then any further market decline would be limited to last mark at 1.3201 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3302, 1.3324, 1.3346

Support Levels: 1.3245, 1.3223, 1.3201

---------------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.54937 LOW 1.54316 BID 1.54332 ASK 1.54345 CHANGE -0.32% TIME 08 : 04:09

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Down trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: We are not expecting significant volatility on the upside today, however clearance of our next resistive barrier at 1.5503 (R1) might push the price towards to our next visible targets at 1.5531 (R2) and 1.5558 (R3). Downwards scenario: Further downtrend evolvement might get more stimulus below the support level at 1.5417 (S1). Our intraday targets locates at 1.5391 (S2) and 1.5365 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5503, 1.5531, 1.5558

Support Levels: 1.5417, 1.5391, 1.5365

------------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 97.181 LOW 96.201 BID 96.899 ASK 96.901 CHANGE 0.48% TIME 08 : 04:09

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Up trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Measures of resistance might be activating when the pair approaches 97.26 (R1) price level. Break here would suggest next interim target at 97.61 (R2) and If the price keeps its momentum we expect an exposure of 97.93 (R3). Downwards scenario: Possible bull back formation might face next hurdle at 96.39 (S1). Break here is required to open road towards to our next interim target at 96.07 (S2) en route to final aim at 95.75 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 97.26, 97.61, 97.93

Support Levels: 96.39, 96.07, 95.75

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · June 21, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jun 21 2013

EU Fin Min struck deal on bank bailouts

Eurozone ministers struck a deal over the origin of funds for bank bailouts from now on. While the local government will contribute 20% of the new capital, the ESM (European Stability Mechanism) bailout fund will become the major contributor with an 80%, according to an official cited by Reuters. Moreover, EU finance ministers made an agreement for the ESM to be used as an investment vehicle for banks under stress, with each being assessed individually to become eligible to the aid, Reuters reported. With regards to Cyprus, EU Finance Ministers were clear that Cyprus must live up to its word by fulfilling its financial obligations. Furthermore, President of the Eurogroup Dijsselbloem was quoted on a headline saying "Implementation of agreed Cypriot baliout program is indispensible", noting that implementation is key for the Bank of Cyrus, also adding that there is likely to be a limit of 60bn euro on direct bank recap fund, although this can be reviewed.

The EUR/USD suffered more losses today, declining another 75 pips and closing at 1.3218. However, it should be noted the pair did trade as low as 1.3160 at one point, but was able to recover a decent portion of its losses before the end of the day. Analysts were discussing the release of the most recent EU PMI figures, which hit the tape during the previous European session.

https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/21062013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

24h | EMU. EcoFin Meeting

2013-06-21 06:35 GMT | Japan. Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda Speech

2013-06-21 07:00 GMT | Switzerland. Monthly Statistical Bulletin (Jun)

2013-06-21 12:30 GMT | Canada. Consumer Price Index (YoY)

FOREX NEWS :

2013-06-21 04:25 GMT | EUR/USD attempting to holds its ground, finds firm bids near 1.3160

2013-06-21 03:31 GMT | USD/JPY to revist 100.00 next week - Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ

2013-06-21 02:46 GMT | AUD/USD edging higher towards 0.9250

2013-06-21 02:10 GMT | EUR/JPY advances capped below 130.00

-----------------------------

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.32545 LOW 1.31995 BID 1.32345 ASK 1.32348 CHANGE 0.12% TIME 0 8: 31:10

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: We are not expecting busy session ahead however upwards extension above the resistance at 1.3255 (R1) level would keep the bullish structure intact and validate our next intraday targets at 1.3272 (R2) and 1.3287 (R3). Downwards scenario: Our key support level locates at 1.3223 (S1) mark. Possible penetration below this mark would open way towards to next target at 1.3206 (S2) and then final support locates at 1.3190 (S3) price level.

Resistance Levels: 1.3255, 1.3272, 1.3287

Support Levels: 1.3223, 1.3206, 1.3190

----------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.55228 LOW 1.54896 BID 1.54975 ASK 1.54987 CHANGE -0.06% TIME 08 : 31:11

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Local high, formed today offers a key resistive barrier at 1.5525 (R1). If the price manages to overcome it we would suggest next intraday targets at 1.5549 (R2) and 1.5572 (R3). Downwards scenario: Though medium-term perspective remains negative for GBP versus the Dollar. Next on tap is seen support level at 1.5485 (S1), break here is required to enable our initial targets at 1.5462 (S2) and 1.5438 (S3)

Resistance Levels: 1.5363, 1.5388, 1.5413

Support Levels: 1.5301, 1.5276, 1.5251

-----------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 97.888 LOW 96.861 BID 97.833 ASK 97.833 CHANGE 0.6% TIME 08 : 31:12

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: USDJPY remains stable below the 20 SMA. Possible price appreciation is limited to the resistance level at 98.08 (R1). Only clear break here would suggest next intraday targets at 98.36 (R2) and 98.63 (R3). Downwards scenario: Recent upside momentum likely exhausted and we expect some stabilization ahead. Next supportive bastion lies at 97.52 (S1). Prolonged movement below it might then expose our intraday targets at 97.25 (S2) and 96.98 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 98.08, 98.36, 98.63

Support Levels: 97.52, 97.25, 96.98

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( Currency Converter | Forex School | ECN Forex Trading Accounts | FXCC )

alayoua · June 25, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jun 25 2013

Will Fed Speeches Halt the Dollar Rally?

Based on the sell-off in global equities and rise in bond yields around the world, deleveraging in the financial markets intensified. However in the forex market, the U.S. dollar appears to have stabilized. Early losses for many major currencies against the dollar were recovered by the end of the day. In fact, the AUD/USD even ended the North American trading session in positive territory. Does this mean that the dollar rally has peaked? No. There were no fundamental drivers behind the reversal in the greenback outside of exhaustion. U.S. stocks continued to decline, extending losses that began at the end of May. While the S&P 500 is still up more than 11% year to date, it lost 6% of its value since setting a record high of 1,669.16 on May 21st. With 1,500 in sight more losses are likely for the S&P 500 and additional weakness in equities is a reflection of risk aversion, which could lead to further strength for the greenback.

https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/25062013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-06-25 08:30 GMT | UK. BBA Mortgage Approvals (May)

2013-06-25 12:30 GMT | USA. Durable Goods Orders (May)

2013-06-25 13:00 GMT | USA. Housing Price Index (MoM) (May)

2013-06-25 14:00 GMT | USA. New Home Sales (MoM) (May)

FOREX NEWS :

2013-06-25 02:02 GMT | USD/JPY retesting 98.00 as Nikkei jumps 1%

2013-06-25 01:13 GMT | AUD/USD well supported by 0.9250, 1h EMA

2013-06-25 01:01 GMT | GBP/JPY struggling around the 151.00 handle

2013-06-25 00:21 GMT | EUR/JPY structurally bearish, above 128.40 sees relief

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.31356 LOW 1.31105 BID 1.31152 ASK 1.31158 CHANGE -0.03% TIME 08 : 19:56

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: A buying interest might push the pair to attack next resistive measure at 1.3144 (R1). Clearance here is required to resume upside formation, targeting marks at 1.3162 (R2) and 1.3180 (R3) later on today. Downwards scenario: On the other hand, further downtrend formation might commence below the support level at 1.3104 (S1). Break here is required to validate our targets at 1.3087 (S2) and 1.3069 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 1.3144, 1.3162, 1.3180

Support Levels: 1.3104, 1.3087, 1.3069

-----------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.5455 LOW 1.5425 BID 1.54402 ASK 1.54410 CHANGE 0.06% TIME 08 : 19:57

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

Upwards scenario: Upwards penetration is limited to the psychological resistance level at 1.5466 (R1). Clearance here might open a route towards to our initial target at 1.5486 (R2) and then further price appreciation would be targeting resistance at 1.5506 (R3). Downwards scenario: Break of the support at 1.5426 (S1) is required to determine negative intraday bias and enable lower target at 1.5405 (S2). Clearance of this target would open a path towards to final support for today at 1.5385 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5466, 1.5486, 1.5506

Support Levels: 1.5426, 1.5405, 1.5385

-------------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 98.065 LOW 97.275 BID 97.436 ASK 97.441 CHANGE -0.28% TIME 08 : 19:57

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral

TREND CONDITION : Sideway

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

Upwards scenario: Neutral channel formation remains favored pattern on the hourly chart frame. Possible clearance of our next resistive barrier at 97.87 (R1) would suggest next intraday targets at 98.11 (R2) and 98.36 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: On the other hand, loss of our support level at 97.21 (S1) would open road for a market decline towards to our next target at 96.98 (S2). Any further price weakening would then be limited to final support for today at 96.73 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 97.87, 98.11, 98.36

Support Levels: 97.21, 96.98, 96.73

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( ECN Broker Account | Best Forex Trading Platform | Forex Blog | FXCC )

alayoua · June 26, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jun 26 2013

Pause Before Another Big Move?

Based on the price action over the past 48 hours in the forex market, volatility has declined as traders and investors wait for a fresh catalyst to drive the dollar higher. Better than expected U.S. economic data helped the greenback hold onto its gains against most of the major currencies but after such an extensive rally, the market is waiting for some confirmation that the Federal Reserve is on track to taper this year and won't do too much damage on the U.S. economy. The latest economic reports suggests that the economy may be able handle less stimulus but that is far from certain. As we said on Monday, the key is whether the other FOMC members are onboard with the idea. Right now, currency traders are in wait and see mode as they look forward to the next big catalyst - which could come from the speeches by Fed officials.

https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/26062013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-06-26 06:00 GMT | Germany. Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey (Jul)

2013-06-26 09:30 GMT | UK. BoE's Governor King Speech

2013-06-26 12:30 GMT | USA. Gross Domestic Product. Annualized

2013-06-26 22:45 GMT | New Zeland. Trade Balance (MoM)

FOREX NEWS :

2013-06-26 04:35 GMT | The Greenback awaits next catalyst

2013-06-26 03:41 GMT | EUR/USD feeling the selling pressure; holds above 1.3050

2013-06-26 02:33 GMT | GBP/USD risk skewed to the downside - RBS

2013-06-26 01:59 GMT | USD/JPY dips below 98.00 on Yen strength

--------------------------

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.30872 LOW 1.30569 BID 1.30681 ASK 1.30687 CHANGE -0.1% TIME 08 : 21:14

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Down trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Despite the current consolidation pattern, EURUSD remains in downtrend formation on the bigger picture. Clearance of our next resistance level at 1.3102 (R1) might trigger corrective action towards to our initial targets at 1.3129 (R2) and 1.3156 (R3). Downwards scenario: Risk of further price regress is seen below the support level at 1.3054 (S1). Clearance here is required to enable bearish pressure towards to next aims at 1.3029 (S2) and 1.3004 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 1.3102, 1.3129, 1.3156

Support Levels: 1.3054, 1.3029, 1.3004

--------------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.54273 LOW 1.54022 BID 1.54215 ASK 1.54227 CHANGE 0.01% TIME 08 : 21:14

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Market sentiment has improved for the bullish oriented traders yesterday though medium term bias remains negative. Next visible fractals level at 1.5436 (R1) offers a key resistance level. Break here would suggest higher targets at 1.5458 (R2) and 1.5479 (R3). Downwards scenario: Current price pattern suggests bearish potential if the pair manages to overcome next support level at 1.5397 (S1). Possible price regress could expose our initial targets at 1.5377 (S2) and 1.5356 (S3) later on today.

Resistance Levels: 1.5436, 1.5458, 1.5479

Support Levels: 1.5397, 1.5377, 1.5356

--------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 98.235 LOW 97.646 BID 97.770 ASK 97.773 CHANGE -0.06% TIME 08 : 21:15

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral

TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Possibility of market strengthening is seen above the immediate resistive barrier at 97.92 (R1). Rise above that level would suggest next interim target at 98.14 (R2) and then final aim locates at 98.37 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside our attention is shifted to the immediate support level at 97.39 (S1). Break here is required to enable bearish forces and expose our intraday targets at 97.19 (S2) and 96.99 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 97.92, 98.14, 98.37

Support Levels: 97.39, 97.19, 96.99

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · June 27, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jun 27 2013

EU FinMin reach deal on bank resolution rules

EU Finance Ministers reached, at the second attempt, an agreement on the new policy to manage restructuring and liquidation of banks. The deal is part of efforts to establish a banking union, which has as ultimate objective to break the link between bank debt and sovereign debt. The EcoFin meeting, celebrated ahead of Thursday's EU Summit, agreed what types of creditors must take losses in future banking crises, according to diplomatic sources. The draft document ensures that depositors with savings under €100,000 will be protected from any loss. The agreement has to be now ratified by the heads of state and government at the summit.

German unemployment and Eurozone confidence numbers are also scheduled for release today and the outcome of these reports will impact the market's expectations for ECB policy and in turn the euro. If the data is good, then the central bank's threat to increase stimulus will fall on deaf ears. Just this morning ECB President Draghi reminded everyone that the central bank stands ready to act if necessary. Unfortunately based on the latest PMI numbers, labor market conditions most likely deteriorated in the month of June and if the data is weak, confirming that ECB policy will trail far behind the Fed, the euro could find itself trading closer to 1.29. In terms of confidence, it will be tough call since there has been both strength and weakness in the latest IFO and ZEW surveys. These numbers shouldn't be as important as German unemployment.

https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/27062013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-06-27 07:55 GMT | Germany. Unemployment Change (Jun)

2013-06-27 08:30 GMT | UK. Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q1)

2013-06-27 14:00 GMT | USA. Pending Home Sales (YoY) (May)

2013-06-27 23:30 GMT | Japan. National Consumer Price Index (YoY) (May)

FOREX NEWS :

2013-06-27 04:58 GMT | AUD/CAD, mid/low 0.99 might be retested

2013-06-27 04:54 GMT | GBP/USD bounces from sub-1.53 support

2013-06-27 04:31 GMT | EUR/USD, key day to further define sentiment

2013-06-27 03:52 GMT | AUD/USD, 0.9330/40 still proves challenging

----------------------------

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.30353 LOW 1.30046 BID 1.30350 ASK 1.30353 CHANGE 0.18% TIME 08 : 45:58

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Market price penetrated above the moving averages and determined corrective phase from the initial downtrend formation. On the way is key resistive measure at 1.3058 (R1), break here is required to achieve higher targets at 1.3085 (R2) and 1.3112 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, we would shift our intraday technical outlook to the negative side if the price manage to penetrate below the next support at 1.3014 (S1). Clearance here is required to enable intraday targets at 1.2988 (S2) and 1.2961 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3058, 1.3085, 1.3112

Support Levels: 1.3014, 1.2988, 1.2961

----------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.5346 LOW 1.53087 BID 1.53355 ASK 1.53356 CHANGE 0.15% TIME 08 : 45:59

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Medium term bias remains negative and possible price appreciation is limited to resistive barrier at 1.5363 (R1). Prolonged movement above that level would suggest next targets at 1.5392 (R2) and 1.5421 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside next challenge is seen at 1.5314 (S1). Breakthrough here would open road for a downside expansion towards to our initial targets at 1.5286 (S2) and 1.5257 (R3) later on today.

Resistance Levels: 1.5363, 1.5392, 1.5421

Support Levels: 1.5314, 1.5286, 1.5257

------------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 97.86 LOW 97.565 BID 97.731 ASK 97.735 CHANGE -0.01% TIME 08 : 46:00

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral

TREND CONDITION : Sideway

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: USDJPY trapped to the consolidation mode after the initial uptrend development. Next resistive barrier is seen at 97.92 (R1), break here is required to enable next attractive points at 98.14 (R2) and 98.37 (R3). Downwards scenario: Possible downside expansion is protected by support level at 97.51 (S1), break here would put bullish oriented traders on hold. Marks at 97.28 (S2) and 97.05 (S3) is the next supportive bastion on the way.

Resistance Levels: 97.92, 98.14, 98.37

Support Levels: 97.51, 97.28, 97.05

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · July 1, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jul 01 2013

China top banking regulator says enough liquidity

The Chinese top banking regulatory body appeased fears over the credit crunch in the country, saying that liquidity remains ample for the interbank needs. Regulators reassured the markets by pledging to tighten risk controls over local government, real estate and shadow banking. The chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, Mr. Shang, said "excess reserves more than double amount necessary", although Shanga failed to provide further details on how they intend to reduce shadow banking practices.

https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/01072013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-07-01 07:58 GMT | EMU. Markit Manufacturing PMI

2013-07-01 08:28 GMT | UK. Markit Manufacturing PMI

2013-07-01 09:00 GMT | EMU. Consumer Price Index

2013-07-01 14:00 GMT | USA. ISM Manufacturing PMI

FOREX NEWS :

2013-07-01 04:59 GMT | GBP/USD stalls the decline above 1.5200

2013-07-01 04:50 GMT | Will the big USD rally be sustainable?

2013-07-01 03:36 GMT | AUD/USD breaking above 0.9180

2013-07-01 02:17 GMT | EUR/AUD hovering above 1.4200

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.30325 LOW 1.30053 BID 1.30286 ASK 1.30289 CHANGE 0.16% TIME 08 : 40:42

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral

TREND CONDITION : Sideway

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Without tier one macroeconomic news announcement neutral mode remains favored. Clearance of next resistance level at 1.3040 (R1) might enable bullish pressure and open route towards to our next targets at 1.3062 (R2) and 1.3084 (R3). Downwards scenario: Possible downside extension might face next supportive barrier at 1.2990 (S1). Clearance here is required to open the way towards to interim target at 1.2971 (S2) and any further price regress would then be targeting 1.2951 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3040, 1.3062, 1.3084

Support Levels: 1.2990, 1.2971, 1.2951

----------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.52265 LOW 1.51953 BID 1.52248 ASK 1.52258 CHANGE 0.12% TIME 08 : 40:43

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

Upwards scenario: Descending structure on GBPUSD suggests possible correction ahead. Break above the resistance at 1.5240 (R1) would clear the way towards to higher target at 1.5271 (R2). Further price appreciation would face then final resistive measure at 1.5303 (R3) Downwards scenario: Next support level lies at 1.5187 (S1). Penetration below it might shift medium-term tone to the negative side. Our intraday targets locates at 1.5159 (S2) and 1.5130 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5240, 1.5271, 1.5303

Support Levels: 1.5187, 1.5159, 1.5130

--------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 99.54 LOW 99.176 BID 99.389 ASK 99.396 CHANGE 0.25% TIME 08 : 40:44

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Up trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low

Upwards scenario: USDJPY clearly determined positive bias on the medium-term perspective. Penetration above the resistive structure at 99.56 (R1) might encourage protective orders execution and drive market price towards to the next resistive means at 99.84 (R2) and 100.11 (R3). Downwards scenario: Price regress below the support level at 99.13 (S1) would increase likelihood of failing towards to the next supportive barrier at 98.85 (S2) and any further correction development would then be targeting final support at 98.58 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 99.56, 99.84, 100.11

Support Levels: 99.13, 98.85, 98.58

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · July 2, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jul 02 2013

AUD/USD hits lowest at 0.9158 as RBA retains dovish tone

AUD/USD has been extending its decline post the RBA rate decision, as traders disccount further rate cuts by the central bank going forward. Amid expectations that the rate would be on hold, all the focus was on the wording used by the RBA. Unfortunately for the anxious bulls, there was no surprise on the dovish tone either, with the RBA repeating the old line "the inflation outlook, as currently assessed, may provide some scope for further easing, should that be required to support demand." What is worse, the RBA stated "The Australian dollar has depreciated by around 10 per cent since early April, although it remains at a high level", which was a hint that despite the dramatic fall, the currency is still not low enough, thus market is now pricing the fact that a lower AUD may not be an impediment to reduce rates further should that be necessary.

The lowest level so far has been 0.9156, an area that converges with the sequence of lows seen on July 1 and June 24 on the hourly chart. The level is also the 61.8% fib retrac from the 0.9110 to 0.9250 relief rally. It appears as though some bids are emerging now from lows, with the rate up at 0.9170. On the upside, some offers may be clustered at 0.9175 - lows through last US session - ahead of 0.92 round number and 0.9250 - twin top today.

https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/02072013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-07-02 08:30 GMT | UK. PMI Construction (Jun)

2013-07-02 09:00 GMT | EMU. PMI Construction (Jun)

2013-07-02 14:00 GMT | USA. Factory Orders (May)

2013-07-02 21:45 GMT | USA. FOMC Member Powell Speech

FOREX NEWS :

2013-07-02 04:35 GMT | AUD/USD touches 0.92 handle after RBA

2013-07-02 04:02 GMT | GBP/USD unchanged so far for the week around the 1.52 handle

2013-07-02 02:47 GMT | EUR/JPY testing 130 round bids

2013-07-02 02:46 GMT | NZD/USD, overall bearish risk not eliminated - JPMorgan

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.30708 LOW 1.30493 BID 1.30573 ASK 1.30576 CHANGE -0.03% TIME 08 : 28:32

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Further buying interest might arise above the resistance at 1.3073 (R1). Clearance here would suggest next intraday target at 1.3095 (R2) and if the price holds its momentum we can expect an exposure of 1.3118 (R3). Downwards scenario: Activation of bearish forces is possible below the support level at 1.3046 (S1). Clearance here would suggest next interim target at 1.3025 (S2) and if the price holds its momentum we would suggest final aim at 1.3004 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3073, 1.3095, 1.3118

Support Levels: 1.3046, 1.3025, 1.3004

-----------------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.52197 LOW 1.51935 BID 1.52082 ASK 1.52091 CHANGE -0.04% TIME 08 : 28:33

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Sideway

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: After dipping lower today we see potential of market strengthening in near-term perspective. Next on tap is seen resistance level at 1.5224 (R1). Break here would suggest next intraday targets at 1.5248 (R2) and 1.5276 (R3). Downwards scenario: Prolonged movement below the supportive measure at 1.5183 (S1) is required to activate downtrend expansion. Next aim on the way would be mark at 1.5155 (S2) and then final target could be met at 1.5128 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5224, 1.5248, 1.5276

Support Levels: 1.5183, 1.5155, 1.5128

------------------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 99.75 LOW 99.51 BID 99.712 ASK 99.717 CHANGE 0.04% TIME 08 : 28:33

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Up trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Bearish

Upwards scenario: While both moving averages are pointing up, medium-term technical outlook would be positive. Appreciation above the resistance at 99.90 (R1) would likely create bullish momentum and enable next intraday targets at 100.18 (R2) and 100.45 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, depreciation below the technically important support level at 99.47 (S1) would allow further market decline on the short-term perspective. Possible targets lies at 99.18 (S2) and 98.90 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 99.90, 100.18, 100.45

Support Levels: 99.47, 99.18, 98.90

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · July 4, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jul 04 2013

EUR - Beware of the ECB

Since the last ECB meeting, we have seen more improvements than deterioration in the Eurozone economy. In Germany specifically, consumer spending has been healthy, unemployment rolls have declined, leading to an improvement in business and investor confidence. However the strength was not without areas of weakness. Businesses and investors grew more optimistic about future economic activity but more grim about current activity. Considering that the current performance of the economy is what really matters, the ECB may look beyond everyone's hope for improvement. Also stronger service sector activity in the region's largest economy was offset by a deeper contraction in manufacturing. So as you can see the recovery in the Eurozone is uneven and when combined with a 5% sell-off in the DAX, since the last meeting the ECB has very little to be optimistic about.

https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/04072013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-07-04 08:00 GMT | EMU. Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY)

2013-07-04 11:00 GMT | UK. BoE Interest Rate Decision

2013-07-04 11:45 GMT | EMU. ECB Interest Rate Decision

2013-07-04 12:30 GMT | EMU. ECB Monetary policy statement and press conference

FOREX NEWS :

2013-07-04 05:22 GMT | EUR/USD lingers at 1.30, awaits the ECB

2013-07-04 04:59 GMT | NZD/USD flat for the session unable to overcome the 0.78 handle

2013-07-04 04:17 GMT | GBP/USD retraces into 1.5250 post bullish engulfing day

2013-07-04 03:23 GMT | AUD/USD jumps on RBA Lowe's comments

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.30233 LOW 1.29875 BID 1.29937 ASK 1.29943 CHANGE -0.12% TIME 08 : 23:05

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Appreciation above the resistance at 1.3015 (R1) might commence new step of the ascending structure. Our intraday targets today are placed at 1.3035 (R2) and 1.3053 (R3). Downwards scenario: Risk of the downtrend development is seen below the support level at 1.2984 (S1). Weakening below this mark might clear the way towards to immediate supports at 1.2965 (S2) and 1.2945 (S3). ECB interest rate announcement is a key factor today.

Resistance Levels: 1.3015, 1.3035, 1.3053

Support Levels: 1.2984, 1.2965, 1.2945

--------------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.52831 LOW 1.52513 BID 1.52575 ASK 1.52583 CHANGE -0.13% TIME 08 : 23:06

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Market remains relatively stable prior BOE interest rate decision, though clearance of next resistance level at 1.5293 (R1) might initiates bullish pressure. Above the local high locates our resistive means at 1.5316 (R2) and 1.5341 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside our focus is shifted to the next support level at 1.5238 (S1). Loss here is required to push the price towards to our next interim targets at 1.5213 (S2) en route towards to final support at 1.5186 (S3)

Resistance Levels: 1.5293, 1.5316, 1.5341

Support Levels: 1.5238, 1.5213, 1.5186

---------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 100.091 LOW 99.692 BID 99.847 ASK 99.849 CHANGE -0.04% TIME 08 : 23:07

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Possibility of price progress is seen above the next resistance level at 100.15 (R1). Breakthrough here would suggest our interim target at 100.42 (R2) and then mark at 100.70 (R3) acts as last resistive measure for today. Downwards scenario: Negative developments might be settled below the important support level at 99.63 (S1). Any price action below it would then be targeting support at 99.36 (S2) and final target could be exposed at 99.09 (S3) mark.

Resistance Levels: 100.15, 100.42, 100.70

Support Levels: 99.63, 99.36, 99.09

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · July 5, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jul 05 2013

EUR and GBP Crushed by ECB and BoE

Big moves are happening in the FX market yesterday. The euro and British pound dropped to 5 week lows against the U.S. dollar, taking out key levels in the process. The absence of U.S. traders most likely compounded the volatility in currencies. The European Central Bank and the Bank of England left monetary policy unchanged but Mario Draghi and Mark Carney made it clear that both central banks have a bias to ease. The dovish comments from European central bankers were motivated by the recent volatility in interest rates and a desire to set themselves apart from the Federal Reserve who is on a path to reduce stimulus. The ECB and the BoE wants everyone to know that they are still prepared to increase stimulus if the volatility in the bond markets persist or their economies weaken. In the Eurozone in particular, the EUR/USD dropped through 1.30 and 1.29. The currency started to fall as soon as Draghi said that policy will remains accommodative as long as needed, there are downside risks to their economic outlook and rates will stay low for an extended period of time. The sell-off gained momentum when the central bank took the unprecedented step of forward guidance. The ECB said there is no exit in sight, they are keeping rates low for an extended period of time, their decision will be data dependent and they are keeping an open mind on negative deposit rates. Draghi also reminded everyone that the central bank is "technically ready" for negative rates. They had an extensive discussion about the possibility of a rate cut and unanimously decided that the guidance was needed which included saying that 50bp is not the lower bound. The central bank is screaming their bias to ease from the top of the mountain - they don't want to leave any room for ambiguity because the risk could be a further rise in yields. Having dropped below 1.29, the next support for the EUR/USD should be at 1.28.

https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/05072013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-07-05 10:00 GMT | Germany. Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY)

2013-07-05 12:30 GMT | Canada. Unemployment Rate

2013-07-05 12:30 GMT | USA. Nonfarm Payrolls

2013-07-05 12:30 GMT | USA. Unemployment Rate

FOREX NEWS :

2013-07-05 04:51 GMT | EUR/GBP limited below 0.8580 asks

2013-07-05 04:46 GMT | NFP amid low liquidity; drastic moves ahead?

2013-07-05 04:22 GMT | GBP/USD hovering around 1.5050

2013-07-05 03:39 GMT | AUD/USD extends decline below 0.9130

EURUSD

HIGH 1.29166 LOW 1.28878 BID 1.28983 ASK 1.28988 CHANGE -0.12% TIME 08 : 24:40

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Down trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: The possibility of an upside price progress is seen above the resistance level at 1.2931 (R1). Evaluation above this mark might initiate bullish pressure and expose medium-term interim targets at 1.2952 (R2) and 1.2974 (R3). Downwards scenario: We placed our support level right above the yesterday low at 1.2881 (S1). Clearance here is required to open way towards to our interim target at 1.2862 (S2) and then final aim locates at 1.2842 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.2931, 1.2952, 1.2974

Support Levels: 1.2881, 1.2862, 1.2842

-------------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.50777 LOW 1.50268 BID 1.50465 ASK 1.50478 CHANGE -0.16% TIME 08 : 24:41

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Down trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Nonfarm Payrolls announcement might change overall technical structure. We see potential to overcome our next resistive barrier at 1.5090 (R1). Any prolonged movement above it would suggest next intraday targets at 1.5120 (R2) and 1.5151 (R3). Downwards scenario: Risk of price depreciation is seen below the support level at 1.5024 (S1). A fall below it might prolong medium-term weakness towards to next support at 1.4992 (S2) and any further market decline would then be targeting final support at 1.4959 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5090, 1.5120, 1.5151

Support Levels: 1.5024, 1.4992, 1.4959

--------------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 100.458 LOW 99.999 BID 100.257 ASK 100.261 CHANGE 0.22% TIME 08 : 24:42

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Neutral tone dominates on the hourly chart frame. Local high offers an important resistive structure at 100.45 (R1). Any penetration above that level would suggest next targets at 100.68 (R2) and 100.90 (R3). Downwards scenario: Possible downside expansion is limited to the next support level at 100.15 (S1). Break here is required to open way towards to initial targets at 99.92 (S2) and 99.70 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 100.45, 100.68, 100.90

Support Levels: 100.15, 99.92, 99.70

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · July 8, 2013

ECB members had heated clash over last rate decision

ECB Governing Council members had a confrontational approach over interest rates at their latest board meeting on Thursday, according to German weekly Der Spiegel, citing no sources, the MNI newswire reports. Der Spiegel claims to have obtained insights over the dovish views from ECB chief economist Peter Praet, who proposed to cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 bp in the last meeting, an action that ECB President Mario Draghi would have supported.

However, as MNI reports, "seven board members, mainly from northern European member states, were arguing sharply against a rate cut last week, the magazine reported." Der Spiegel reports German Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann, Dutch central bank governor Klaas Knot as well as ECB Executive Board member Joerg Asmussen, as the most notoriously opposed to it. As is well known, the final decision taken by the board was to unanimously keep the benchmark rate unchanged at 0.5% while providing forward guidance on low rates. Draghi's said that "broad-based weakness in the real economy and subdued monetary dynamics" will keep rates at present or lower levels for an extended period of time.

https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/08072013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

24h | All. Eurogroup Meeting

2013-07-08 13:30 GMT | EMU. ECB President Draghi's Speech

2013-07-08 14:30 GMT | Canada. Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey (Q2)

2013-07-08 19:00 GMT | USA. Consumer Credit Change

FOREX NEWS :

2013-07-08 04:59 GMT | Calls to buy USD all over; time to be sellers?

2013-07-08 04:26 GMT | GBP/USD strongly capped below 1.4900

2013-07-08 03:40 GMT | Buy AUD/NZD targeting 1.2130/70 - Societe Generale

2013-07-08 03:38 GMT | AUD/CAD depressed below 0.96 round

------------------------

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.28319 LOW 1.28106 BID 1.28169 ASK 1.28173 CHANGE -0.11% TIME 08 : 30:00

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Down trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Market players may prefer to stay neutral today during limited tier one macroeconomic data flow, though a break of our resistance at 1.2852 (R1) would suggest next targets at 1.2879 (R2) and 1.2905 (R3). Downwards scenario: Friday low offers a key support barrier at 1.2805 (S1). Only clear break here would be a signal of possible market easing towards to next targets at 1.2781 (S2) and 1.2757 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 1.2852, 1.2879, 1.2905

Support Levels: 1.2805, 1.2781, 1.2757

----------------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.48824 LOW 1.48582 BID 1.48765 ASK 1.48774 CHANGE -0.02% TIME 08 : 30:01

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Down trend

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Upside risk aversion is seen above the next resistance level at 1.4923 (R1). Appreciation above it might lead would enable corrective phase, targeting resistive measures at 1.4962 (R2) and 1.4999 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: On the other hand, if the pair accelerates on the downside and manage to break our next support level at 1.4853 (S1), it is likely to trigger our next support level at 1.4818 (S2) and 1.4782 (S3) later on today.

Resistance Levels: 1.4923, 1.4962, 1.4999

Support Levels: 1.4853, 1.4818, 1.4782

-----------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 101.531 LOW 101.06 BID 101.095 ASK 101.100 CHANGE -0.08% TIME 08:30:02

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Uptrend evolvement remains in power. Further appreciation above the resistive barrier at 101.53 (R1) is liable to next intraday targets at 101.81 (R2) and 102.09 (R3). Downwards scenario: Possible retracement action might get more stimulus below the support level at 100.87 (S1). Loss here would suggest next intraday target at 100.58 (S2) and any weakening below it would then face final support at 100.28 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 101.53, 101.81, 102.09

Support Levels: 100.87, 100.58, 100.28

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · July 9, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jul 09 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jul 09 2013

Troika approves next disbursment to Greece

Troika officials struck a deal with Greece this Monday, allowing the debt-laden country to receive its next tranche of funds, totalling The money, totaling 6.8bn euros ($8.7bn). The troika of the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will be responsible to make the funds available end of the month. Eurozone finance ministers indicated earlier today that 2.5bn euros would come from the eurozone rescue fund and 1.5bn euros, while the European Central Bank will contribute with another 1.5bn euros. It is thought that an additional 500m euros from both the EZ rescue fund and the ECB will be transferred in October. The IMF will add the remaining 1.8bn euros.

The loans are subject to Greece showing a committal approach towards the country's fiscal path, with the Troika demanding further cuts and a faster implementation of its reform programme, one that has brought the country to its knees. Despite so, the Troika continues to underline the slow progress seen so far, as the country continues to struggle through an era of depression.

https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/09072013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

24h | EcoFin Meeting

2013-07-09 08:30 GMT | UK. Manufacturing Production (YoY)

2013-07-09 12:15 GMT | Canada. Housing Starts s.a (YoY)

2013-07-09 14:00 GMT | UK. NIESR GDP Estimate (3M)

FOREX NEWS :

2013-07-09 04:52 GMT | GBP/USD stalls the recovery below 1.4950

2013-07-09 04:50 GMT | EUR/USD aiming at 2nd daily gain

2013-07-09 03:09 GMT | NZD/USD back around 0.78 post-China CPI

2013-07-09 03:02 GMT | AUD/JPY setting stage for a 92.50 breakout?

-----------------------------

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.28711 LOW 1.2846 BID 1.28677 ASK 1.28683 CHANGE -0.01% TIME 08 : 33:00

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Instrument gained momentum on the upside recently, turning short-term bias to the positive side. Next resistive structure on the way lies at 1.2892 (R1), break here would suggest next intraday targets at 1.2909 (R2) and 1.2926 (R3). Downwards scenario: Failure to establish positive bias today would shift our focus to the next support level at 1.2844 (S1). Clearance here would open way towards to our initial targets at 1.2826 (S2) and 1.2806 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.2892, 1.2909, 1.2926

Support Levels: 1.2844, 1.2826, 1.2806

--------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.4953 LOW 1.49199 BID 1.49434 ASK 1.49442 CHANGE -0.05% TIME 08 : 33:01

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Yesterday high offers a key resistive measure at 1.4968 (R1). If the price manages to overcome it we would suggest next intraday targets at 1.4999 (R2) and 1.5029 (R3). Downwards scenario: Any downside extension is limited now to the next support level at 1.4918 (S1). Below here we see potential for the price acceleration towards to next targets at 1.4884 (S2) and 1.4851 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.4968, 1.4999, 1.5029

Support Levels: 1.4918, 1.4884, 1.4851

----------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 101.243 LOW 100.768 BID 101.147 ASK 101.151 CHANGE 0.19% TIME 08 : 33:02

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Measures of resistance might be activating if the pair approaches 101.41 (R1) price level. Break here would suggest next interim target at 101.70 (R2) and If the price keeps its momentum we expect an exposure of 101.97 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, break below the support at 100.76 (S1) is required to enable further market decline. Our next supportive measures locates at 100.49 (S2) and 100.21 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 101.41, 101.70, 101.97

Support Levels: 100.76, 100.49, 100.21

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

alayoua · July 10, 2013

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jul 10 2013

S&P downgrades Italy to BBB, outlook negative

Ratings Agency Standard & Poor's decided to downgrade Italy on Tuesday, cutting the rating to BBB from BBB+. According to S&P, this action reflects their view of the effects of further weakening growth on Italy's economic structure and resilience, and its impaired monetary transmission mechanism. S&P also left their outlook at negative, meaning there is at least one-in-three chance that the rating could be lowered again in 2013 or 2014.

The highlights today will be the FOMC Minutes and Bernanke’s Speech and until then I don’t see an awful lot to move things around. The 4 hour charts are showing some minor bullish divergence and we could see the odd bounce but the dailies continue to point lower and I suspect that the low 1.2700 area will soon be tested. In the meantime leave room for bounces as the 4 hour charts unwind. We will be adding to our shorts if we see a bounce into the 1.2850/1.2900 in the coming session. German CPI, US FOMC Minutes, Wholesale Inventories, Bernanke Speech Economic data highlights will include: German CPI, US FOMC Minutes, Wholesale Inventories, Bernanke Speech

https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/10072013/

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

2013-07-10 17:00 GMT | USA. 10-Year Note Auction

2013-07-10 18:00 GMT | USA. FOMC Minutes

2013-07-10 20:10 GMT | USA. Fed's Bernanke Speech

N/A | Japan. Monetary Policy Statement

FOREX NEWS :

2013-07-10 05:05 GMT | USD/JPY cracks 101.80 support

2013-07-10 04:28 GMT | GBP/USD finds buyers above 1.4850

2013-07-10 03:56 GMT | EUR/USD unable to regain the 1.28 handle

2013-07-10 03:09 GMT | Gold eases below $1250; Oil below $104

EURUSD :

HIGH 1.27868 LOW 1.27648 BID 1.27823 ASK 1.27828 CHANGE 0.01% TIME 08 : 13:47

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Sideway

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: EURUSD stabilized on the hourly chart however appreciation above the next resistance at 1.2805 (R1) might be a good catalyst for a recovery action towards to next targets at 1.2833 (R2) and 1.2862 (R3). Downwards scenario: Any downside fluctuations remains for now limited to the next support level at 1.2754 (S1), only clear break here would be a signal of possible market easing towards to next targets at 1.2727 (S2) and 1.2699 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 1.2805, 1.2833, 1.2862

Support Levels: 1.2754, 1.2727, 1.2699

---------------------

GBPUSD :

HIGH 1.48973 LOW 1.48451 BID 1.48948 ASK 1.48958 CHANGE 0.2% TIME 08 : 13:48

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up

TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium

Upwards scenario: Current price setup might suggest volatility increase in near term perspective. If the price get acceleration on the upside and manages to surpass our resistive measure at 1.4926 (R1), we would suggest next targets at 1.4972 (R2) and 1.5018 (R3). Downwards scenario: Yesterday session low provides an important supportive mark at 1.4813 (S1). Any penetration below this level would suggest next targets at 1.4767 (S2) and 1.4722 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 1.4926, 1.4972, 1.5018

Support Levels: 1.4813, 1.4767, 1.4722

---------------------

USDJPY :

HIGH 101.216 LOW 100.374 BID 100.405 ASK 100.410 CHANGE -0.74% TIME 08 : 13:49

OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down

TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration

TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish

IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Upside formation is limited now to the next resistive barrier at 100.76 (R1). Clearance here is required to provide a space for a move towards to next target at 101.02 (R2) and then final aim could be found at 101.29 (R3). Downwards scenario: Further downtrend formation might get acceleration below the support level at 100.15 (S1). Loss here would suggest next intraday target at 99.87 (S2) and any weakening below it would then be limited to final support at 99.63 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 100.76, 101.02, 101.29

Support Levels: 100.15, 99.87, 99.63

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

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