Technical signals from Forex4you

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: pushing up inside range

 

The EUR/USD pair is bouncing back after finding support in the 1.2440s. It will now probably continue higher in line with the very short-term up-trend. It might reach my old target at 1.2584 - although more cautious traders might aim for the range highs at 1.2577.

 

A break above those same 1.2577 range highs would indicate a move above the top of the wick of a very bearish shooting-star candlestick, visible on the 4-hr chart, signalling a breakout from the range which would be a very bullish sign. The Fibonacci extension of the move would provide a

preliminary target at 1.2625 followed by the 50-day MA at 1.2674.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/EURUSD18.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: sideways consolidation extending

 

The pair is correcting the mid-term down-trend. It is toiling higher and there is a possibility it could reach the 1.2577 highs, however, the down-trend will probably resume thereafter.

 

The current sideways consolidation is quite messy and its difficult to forecast where the

exchnange rate will go in the near-term. Chaikin Money Flow is rising slightly, indicating an upside bias at the moment, and further increasing the possibility of a retouch of the 1.2577 highs.

 

A clearance of those highs – including a break above the major trend-line at around 1.2595 would be significant and lower the chances of a resumption fo the down-trend. Such a move would gain confirmation from a break above the trend-line at 1.2615, leading to a follow-through higher, up to a target at the 50-day MA at 1.2674, followed by round-number resistance at 1.2700.

 

Alternatively a breakdown below the 1.2397 lows would provide confirmation of a move down to the major 1.2357 lows.

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/EURUSD19.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: breaking higher out of rising channel

 

The USD/JPY has ignored indications it is overbought and pushed higher, breaking above the upper-border line of a rising channel and touching historic highs at 117.60.

 

The analysis is quite simple for this pair as it is in a very strong up-trend which is showing no signs of weakening, and is therefore expected to continue.

 

Therefore if the exchange rate manages to clear the current 117.60 resistance highs by at least 20 points – so above 117.80 – this would help confirm a continuation up to the next target at 119.75; a target calculated using the measuring gap created on November 3rd as a 'halfway' point for the whole move.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/USDJPY19.png

Edited November 19, 2014 by joaquinmonfort

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: at 'crossroads'; possible head-and-shoulders

 

The pair has formed a head and shoulders pattern on the 4-hr chart just under a major down-sloping trend-line. This could mark a resumption of the dominant down-trend. A clear break below the neckline of the H&S at 1.2480 would probably signal a move lower to a minimum expectation target at 1.2442, followed by 1.2410 (the 100% downside extrapolation of the height of the pattern).

 

Alternatively if the pair continues the v.short-term bull move higher it could break above the trend-line, and build a reversal. Such a move would gain confirmation with a break above 1.2615, followed by a move up to an initial target at the 50-day MA situated at 1.2674.

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/EURUSD20b.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: H&S pattern breaking to the down-side

 

The exchange rate formed a small H&S pattern on the 4-hr chart before breaking below the neckline and moving lower. It has now reached the 61.8% extrapolation of the height of the pattern, which is its minimum expectation price target at 1.2442. It will probably continue down to the final target at 1.2410 (the 100% extrapolation).

 

It has now also broken below the trend-line for the move up and this has signaled that there is a chance it could move even further down to the 1.2357 lows. A break below 1.2420 might signal a continuation to that figure – although its a risky trade.

 

A more conservative approach would be to enter on the short-side below the S2 monthly pivot at 1.2310 including a 20-pip margin – so 1.2290 – with a target at about 1.2235 at the major trend-line connecting the 2010 and 2012 lows.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/EURUSD21.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: up-trend likely to continue despite shooting star

 

The pair broke out of its rising channel; such was the strength of the up-trend it moved outside the upper border! The exchange rate eventually reached highs of 118.97 before forming a shooting-star reversal pattern.

 

Despite the bearish candlestick the pair is still in a very strong up-trend which is expected to continue higher, and a move above the highs at 119.00 would probably indicate a move higher to the next target at 119.75, calculated by taking the measuring gap on mid-point of the 31st October as the midpoint.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/USDJPY21.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: breaking lower; major trend-line in sight

 

EUR/USD broke lower following comments from ECB President Draghi on Friday. It has reached the 1.2357 lows but it will probably continue down. The dominant trend is bearish and likely to extend.

 

The S2 monthly pivot at 1.2310, not far below the lows and likely to offer support. However if it is broken decisively – including a 20-pip margin – so below 1.2290, the pair will probably fall to the next major support level at the significant trend-line situated at 1.2235, which connects the 2010 and 2012 lows.

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/EURUSD24.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: consolidating in a down-trend; possible dbl bottom

 

Cable is consolidating at the bottom of a possible wedge formation. The trend-down remains dominant and there is a strong possibility it will continue. A move below the S3 monthly pivot, therefore, including a margin of 20 points, at 1.5537, would provide confirmation of such an extension down, to a possible target at 1.5405.

 

Alternatively there is a chance the pair has formed a small double-bottom, which may break to the upside if its neckline is breached at 1.5738. This would lead to a move up to a possible target at 1.5797, where the S2 monthly pivot is situated. Going against the trend, however, makes this a high risk strategy.

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/GBPUSD24.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: 4th elliotwave completing; 5th about to break lower

 

The EUR/USD has formed a text-book Elliot wave visible on the 1 hour chart pictured below. The wave is currently probably completing its 4th wave and looks poised to start a 5th wave down.

 

MACD is further supporting this interpretation. There is now a strong possibility the pair will move lower as wave 5 unfolds, with a minimum price expectation at the 1.2353 lows.

 

The S1 monthly pivot is currently supporting price action at 1.2420. A decisive break below this would help confirm the start of wave 5. One possible entry point would be at 1.2410 - but my official recommendation would be at 1.2400, even though it is a round-number, as it represents a 20 point clearance below the pivot. An initial target would be yesterday's lows at 1.2353.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/EURUSD25.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: consolidating in an up-trend

 

The pair has been moving sideways after forming a shooting-star pattern last Thursday. It has now 'backed into' support from the upper border-line of the rising channel, and this may lead to a resumption of the up-trend, which is eventually likely to continue rising higher.

 

A move above the 119.00 highs would probably confirm a continuation up to a target at 119.75, calculated by taking the measuring gap on the 31st October as the midpoint.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/USDJPY251.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: possible move down in 5th elliotwave

 

EUR/USD is broadly in a sideways consolidation after revisiting the 1.2350 lows and then bouncing back up again. The very short-term trend is unclear.

 

In regards to the small Elliot wave which was forming on the hourly chart, the 4th wave did not complete and start moving down in a wave 5 as I expected but instead continued higher. It has now pulled-back a Fibonacci 50% of the length of the larger wave and has posted a long-tail shooting star which could mean its now finished and about to begin wave 5, which will probably move all the way down to the range lows at 1.2353.

 

The S1 monthly pivot at 1.2420 is a significant support level and may impede downside progress.

 

I recommend either standing aside altogether or for traders keen to enter the market then a very cautious approach to trading wave 5, with small orders, selling in increments, in two main batches, starting with the break below 1.2445 and targeting S1 at 1.2420; and then in a second step from 1.2395 down to a target at 1.2560 – slightly above the 1.2553 lows.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/EURUSD26.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: consolidating in down-trend

 

Cable is still consolidating at the bottom of a possible wedge formation in a strong down-trend. A move below the S3 monthly pivot, therefore, including a margin of 20 points, at 1.5537, would provide confirmation of such an extension down, to a possible target at 1.5405.

 

I do not think the double-bottom which I mentioned in my previous analysis is still as clear as it was, and therefore I am not convinced there will be a break higher. Nevertheless such a move would bring the v.short-term trend into doubt and potentially signal a recovery, or slight bullish bias. Going against the broader down-trend, however, is a high risk strategy.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/GBPUSD26.png

[joaquinmonfort]

AUD/USD: down-trend extending

 

The pair has broken lower, extending the dominant down-trend yet further. It has decisively broken below the S3 monthly pivot and is now on its way to the next downside target at round-number support at 0.8400. The strength of the move down so far means is still see the exchange rate going lower, probably to the aforesaid target, or slightly higher at 0.8405.

 

Traders not already committed could open a new trade lower at the break of today's 0.8477 lows.

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/AUDUSD26.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: reaching trend-line resistance within consolidation

 

The EUR/USD pair is in a v.short-term up-trend based on the 4-hr chart, within a broader sideways trend, within a mid-term down-trend. The pair has risen up to just short of a major trend-line drawn from the August highs. This trend-line would be expected to provide resistance and the pair may start to resume the broader down-trend soon, however, it is bit too early to say for sure, oir forecast how far down it will go: the S1 monthly pivot at 1.2420, however, could provide one target.

 

The Elliot-wave which seemed to be forming over the last few days and was most clearly shown on the hourly chart did not in the end breakdown and form a 5th wave. Therefore with the short-term outlook so muddled I would recommend standing aside until a stronger trend develops.

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/EURUSD27.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: pulling-back in an up-trend

 

The pair continues pulling-back in an up-trend. It has moved back below the upper border-line of the rising channel, in a bearish sign. The trend is still strong, however, and will probably resume eventually, taking the pair back up again.

 

My previous recommendation still stands – a break above the high of the shooting star on the 20th at just shy of 119.00 would probably lead to a move up to 119.75, which is the target calculated by taking the measuring gap on the 31st October as a midpoint.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/USDJPY27.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: trading in a range; CPI on tap

 

The day after thanksgiving often produces increased volatility in currency markets and this combined with the release of euro-zone CPI could lead to a strong sell-off in the pair.

 

Technically the longer-term down-trend is intact but the very short-term trend is slightly biased to the upside, the resulting cross-currents and basically sideways nature of recent market action means I would prefer to wait for a clear breakout from the range before making a trade.

 

For those who are really keen to trade, a clear break below the S1 monthly pivot situated at 1.2420 – by breaking beneath 1.2395 would probably confirm a move lower to the next target just above the 1.2350 range lows at 1.2360.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/EURUSD28.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: possibility of resumption of broader down-trend

 

The overall trend is still down, particularly on the weekly chart. The dollar seems to be strengthening for fundamental reasons to do with America's abundant cheap energy resources. The pound is weakening on Brexit fears after David Cameron's immigration speech.

 

Zooming in we see on the 4hr chart that the exchange rate has fallen to the base of a rising channel where it currently finding support at 1.5690.

 

There is a possibility of a turn-around occurring at the present level at the base of the channel, however price action has not confirmed this and is continuing to press lower.

 

Given the strong mid-term bear-trend I see scope for a move lower, if we get a confirming breakdown out of the channel at 1.5660 the exchange rate would probably fall to support from the lower wedge-pattern border at 1.5630.

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/GBPUSD28.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: faint signs of reversal

 

The pair has been in a down-trend since May but has paused to consolidate. Although a continuation of the down-trend would normally be favoured it is showing signs of exhaustion. A rare triple convergence with MACD and double with OBV provide a possible cue for a reversal.

 

Ideally I would want to see a break above the 1.2531 highs for confirmation of more upside, with the R1 monthly pivot at 1.2589 as target. I recommend caution, however, given this would be trading against the dominant trend.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/EURUSD01.png

Edited December 1, 2014 by joaquinmonfort

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: continuing trend higher

 

The USD/JPY pair has continued to rise higher, breaking above the shooting-star highs of the 20th

of November and moving up to make new highs at 119.13. Although the pair is showing a bearish divergence with RSI on the 4-hr chart, On Balance Volume (OBV) is not confirming this, so the bearish significance is reduced.

 

There is a possibility the pair could continue rising up even higher, since the up-trend is so entrenched. It could reach the next target at 119.75, calculated using the November 3rd measuring gap – this could then be followed by a move up to the major round-number level at 120.00.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/USDJPY01.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: falling back down into range

 

The overall trend continues to be bearish and remains intact. The pair is now moving down back within the range after being rebuked by the trend-line.

 

There are still faint signs of a potential reversal on the horizon. Yesterday I noted that on the daily chart there is a triple convergence between MACD and price and double between OBV and price. Without an actual move higher, however, it's too early to say whether these convergences will bear fruit in the form of a rally.

 

Nevertheless a move above the 1.2531 highs would supply more bullish confirmation and see a probable move up to 1.2589.

 

There is much support underpinning the 24th November lows, but a clearance of those lows, by breaking under 1.2327 might signal a move down to a target at the major multi-year trend-line at 1.2215.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/EURUSD02.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: possible bull-flag on 4hr chart

 

Cable has bounced from the 1.5590 lows back up into the range. It has been in a broadly sideways trend since the 14th November lows.

 

There is a possibility that a bull-flag is forming on the 4-hr chart which could lead to a move higher, with an extension up to 1.5800. A break above 1.5730 could provide confirmation the flag was breaking higher, although given the volatile sideways market environment, and the dominant down-trend, a cautious approach to money-management is recommended.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/GBPUSD02.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: bearish breakout from range

 

The dominant down-trend has resumed and pushed lower. The pair appears to be breaking out of the sideways range it has been in during most of November. The bullish convergences with MACD and OBV have been ignored and we are going lower.

 

The pair has breached the November 24 lows and the S1 monthly pivot and is moving down towards the next target at the S2 monthly pivot at 1.2230.

 

A re-break of today's current 1.2322 lows would probably lead to a continuation down to the target at S2 although I recommend a cautious approach to money management.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/EURUSD03.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: pushing higher

 

No real change: the pair is in a strong up-trend which is likely to continue. The next target is at 119.75, calculated from the November 3rd measuring gap, followed by considerable resistance from the major round-number level at 120.00.

 

Today has seen further gains further reinforcing the trend. There is slight divergence with both RSI and OBV but it is not acute, nevertheless there are no signs yet from the exchange rate itself that it is starting to correct. Therefore overall, more upside is to be expected, up to the aforesaid targets.

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/USDJPY03.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: down-trend extending; ECB meeting today

 

The EUR/USD pair has broken out of its consolidation range and is continuing its down-trend lower. The pair has moved under the S1 monthly pivot at 1.2347 and it will probably now continue down in line with the broader trend, to the next target at S2 at 1.2230.

 

Today is the ECB rate meeting and much volatility is expected, as well as the possibility of a break lower, with a move below today's 1.2294 lows possibly confirming a continuation down to the pivot at 1.2230, or even possibly all the way to the multi-year trend-line at 1.2215.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/EURUSD04.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: coiling into small triangle

 

Cable is in a messy sideways range since establishing a new low in the middle of November. This tranche of activity could be interpreted as a small slightly imperfect triangle pattern.

 

It is the BOE rate meeting today, but extra volatility is not guaranteed as the bank is expected to leave policy unchanged and and if there are changes in voting which could trigger volatility these will not be divulged until later when the minutes are published.

 

It is most probable that the exchange rate will break lower following in line with the direction of the larger down-trend. A move below the 1.5584 lows of the 1st December would probably confirm a move down to the S1 monthly pivot at 1.5484.

 

Alternatively, a breakout higher would be confirmed by a move above the 1.5825 highs, which would probably lead to a move up to 1.5869 support and resistance – however traders should act with caution as this is in the contrary direction to the broader trend.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/GBPUSD04b1.png

Edited December 4, 2014 by joaquinmonfort