Technical signals from Forex4you

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: in consolidation zone

 

The trend on most timeframes remains down and is expected to continue lower. In the immediate future much depends on PMI data out today and whether it supports a more negative outlook for the euro-zone economy; if so, it could be the catalyst for the next leg lower.

 

A possible broadening formation price pattern is currently unfolding. If this is the case, however, then the next move will be a leg higher instead, rising up to the upper border-line of the pattern at 1.3030, although there is also resistance from the upper channel line at 1.2905. It is not certain a pattern really is forming, it is just one possibility.

 

Given the dominant down-trend the probabilities favour a continuation. I stick with my previous forecast that a break below 1.2790 will result in a move down to support at 1.2750.

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/EURUSD23.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: v.short-term trend extending higher

 

Although the pair was in a strong down-trend, it stalled after finding support at the upper border line of a large multi-year triangle. From there it has bounced, after the referendum vote produced a win for the “no” camp.

 

Now the very short-term trend is bullish and this small up-trend is in the process of completing an a-b-c correction. This indicates the possibility that the exchange rate is about to begin rising again. A clear break above the S1 level at 1.6428, including a 20-pip margin - which makes 1.6448, would probably provide the necessary confirmation for an extension higher, with a target just short of the recent spike highs at 1.6520.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/GBPUSD23.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: still broadly consolidating

 

The pair continues in consolidation mode. It may or may not be forming a broadening formation pattern, which would probably indicate a reversal. The lack of an upside move, however, makes it seem less likely a broadening pattern really is forming.

 

The very short-term, short-term and mid-term trends remain bearish and therefore likely to continue, so I am sticking by previous forecast that a break below the 1.2790 would probably lead to a move down to support at 1.2750, if not even lower.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/EURUSD24.png

[joaquinmonfort]

AUD/USD: trending lower

 

The aussie is in a concerted short and very short-term down-trend clearly visible on the 4-hr chart. Although the down-trend remains intact I'm more cautious now targets generated by the original breakout from the consolidation have been met.

 

Nevertheless the pair has just pulled up on the 4-hr chart and touched a trend-line for the move down and there is a possibility it will now resume its trend lower.

 

The previous analysis still holds, with support from the major historic lows of 2013 at 0.8841 expected to slow the sell-off, and a clear break below this level including 20-pip margin, at 0.8821, required to confirm a continuation down. The next target could be as far down as the significant 0.8659 lows - although round-number support at 0.8700 would provide a closer target.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/AUDUSD24.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: attempting to break below major trend-line

 

The EUR/USD pair has reached support from a major multi-year trend-line from the 2000 lows situated at 1.2725. It is possible it will pause and consolidate at this level, or possibly even reverse and start rising, however, the monthly chart looks especially bearish after 3 down months in a row, and if this month ends at the current level or lower then that will be a probable sign of even further weakness.

 

The current short-term and very short-term bear trends are also a factor favouring more downside. The major trend-line from 2000 needs to be decisively breached first, however, so I would be looking for a break below 1.2690 for confirmation of further downside, with the next target lower at the S3 monthly pivot situated at 1.2593, although the potential for losses is much higher, with 1.2100 as longer-term target.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/EURUSD25.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: correcting back in a-b-c pattern

 

Cable is unfolding an a-b-c correction of the v.short-term up-trend visible on the 4hr-chart.The correction looks like it is close to completing and a new up-move could be about to begin. Despite the short-term trend being bearish the v.short term price action has reversed, after bouncing off support from the upper border-line of a large multi-year triangle.

 

The S1 monthly pivot is resisting further upside at 1.6428 and I would therefore wish to see a clear break above that level, including a 20-pip margin before expecting the up-trend to extend higher. This means a break above 1.6448 for confirmation of a move up to just short of the spike highs at 1.6520.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/GBPUSD25.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: still finding support at major trend-line

 

EUR/USD remains supported by a 14-year major trend-line at around 1.2730 under which it has been unable to break. It is currently consolidating on the line and attempting to break lower. The short-term and very short-term trends are very much down and likely to extend, but the trend-line stands in the way of deeper penetration.

 

To be confident of more downside, it is critical that the exchange rate breaks cleanly beneath the trend-line, and my confirmation level at 1.2690. This would hopefully signal a break down to the next level of support at the S3 monthly pivot at 1.2593.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/EURUSD26.png

[joaquinmonfort]

AUD/USD: down-trend extending

 

The down-trend continues lower. It has cleanly broken below support from historic lows situated at 0.8840, and reached down to 0.8740s. This is the 3rd down-week in a row, a potentially bearish sign in itself. The very short and short-term down-trends remain intact, and probably will extend lower. A break below the current 0.8746 lows would probably signal a continuation down to 0.8700, where round-number support is expected to kick in, and lead to a pause or consolidation.

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/AUDUSD26.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: finding support from old lows

 

The EUR/USD pair has broken below the major 14-year trend-line which was baring progress lower at 1.2730 and made new lows of 1.2663 this morning.

 

The short-term down-trend is extending and the next main target is situated at the S3 monthly pivot at 1.2593 – or for a closer target 1.2600. On Wednesday, at the start of October, the pivot will re-calculate, but assuming a close near today's current level, there are no October pivots until the lower 1.25s.

 

There is historic support at the current 1.2663 lows, however, and I would want to see a clear break below that, with a 20-pip margin - so below 1.2643 - for further bearish confirmation, with the next target lower at round-number support at 1.2600.

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/EURUSD29.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: v.short-term trend turns bearish

 

The very short-term trend has reversed and is now bearish, with 2 lower lows and 2 lower highs, following the spike higher after the Scottish referendum vote. This means the down-trend is now in line with the broader short-term bearish-trend which started at the July highs.

 

The exchange rate is expected to continue falling from here and probably reach the the border-line of a large multi-year triangle at 1.6153, which recently supplied support at the bottom of the last wave down. At that level it will probably pause to consolidate. A break below the current day lows at 1.6210 would be required to signal a move down towards the previously mentioned target.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/GBPUSD29.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: at historic support; down-trend intact

 

The EUR/USD pair has paused and is consolidating at the current 1.2663 lows. It has now met the minimum price expectation generated by the breakout from the broadening formation and has found support at historic lows at 1.2661. These factors suggest the current bearish move may be exhausted. Once it has finished consolidating, or if there is negative news the dominant down-trend will probably extend lower. The next main target is situated at the S3 monthly pivot at 1.2593 – or for a closer target 1.2600 (the S3 will move at the end of the month).

 

For a sign that the trend was continuing lower I would ideally, want to see a break below historic support at the current 1.2663 lows, including a 20-pip margin – so below 1.2643 – with an initial target at 1.2600, followed by 1.2550.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/EURUSD30.png

[joaquinmonfort]

AUD/USD: a-b-c correction completing in down-trend

 

The AUD/USD bounced after meeting major support from just above the January lows at 0.8682. It rose up and formed an a-b-c pattern visible on the 4-hour chart, and touched resistance from the trend-line for the move down. Since then it has started falling and is now moving back down again to have another attempt at breaking the January lows.

 

The v.short, short and mid-term trends are down and likely to continue lower. Firstly, however, I'd like to see a break of the 0.8659 lows, including a 20-pip margin – so 0.8639 - for confirmation the down-trend was in fact extending. The next target would probably be where the new S1 monthly pivot is likely to be for October at around the 0.8465 level.

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/AUDUSD30.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: down-trend expected to continue

 

The pair remains in a strong down-trend after the release of data showing a fall in inflation, which further increased the possibility the ECB might embark on more aggressive easing strategies. The pair reached lows of 1.2571 before pausing to consolidate. It is currently moving sideways but because of the strong down-trend, will probably continue falling lower, eventually.

 

Historic lows situated at 1.2460 provide the next significant downside target for the pair, with the next leg down confirmed by a break below the 1.2571 lows.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/EURUSD01.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: down-trend meeting major support line

 

The GBP/USD is in a v.short-term down-trend within a broader wave down which started after the July highs. It has just reached major support from the border-line of a large multi-year triangle at 1.6153, finding support just above at 1.6158. There is now a possibility the pair could rebound from this level and start moving higher, but in the absence of any signals from price itself the forecast remains that the down-trend will extend.

 

For confirmation of further down-side I should want to see a decisive break below the upper borderline including at least a 20-pip margin, so below 1.6133 - this would then probably run down to the next target lower at the 1.6050 previous lows.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/GBPUSD01.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: consolidating prior to ECB meeting

 

EUR/USD is consolidating at the current lows after poor factory data yesterday dented the dollar's up-trend. Traders are probably standing aside ahead of the ECB's policy meeting today when volatility could result.

 

The technical picture remains the same with the greenback in a strong down-trend which is likely to continue. As I said yesterday: “Historic lows situated at 1.2460 provide the next significant downside target for the pair, with the next leg down confirmed by a break below the 1.2571 lows.” This advice still stands, except that given the possibility of volatile swings I would make my entry level 10 points lower at 1.2561.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/EURUSD02.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: correction unfolding; up-trend still intact

 

The USD/JPY has corrected back sharply and there are a few more signs that the trend may have temporarily reversed and we may get a stronger extension down – however even with these signs it is still too early to say whether the current pull-back will evolve, and in the absence of more material evidence of a reversal the trend remains up, and expected to continue.

 

RSI has crossed below the overbought line after being overbought for days, and this is a traditional sell signal, however, price action is not yet showing two lower highs and two lower lows on the 4-hr chart, and until it does I'd be hesitant to call a top. It's still possible the current move down may simply be an a-b-c correction of the up-trend. Tomorrow's Non-Farm Payrolls – the most market moving data release on the calendar – could be key in determing whether the correction is set to extend or whether the up-trend resumes.

 

As such I'm sticking with yesterday's recommendation that a break above 110.10 will probably lead to a move up to the R1 monthly pivot at 111.59.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/USDJPY02.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: a-b-c correction completing; down-side potential

 

The EUR/USD pair has corrected back after making new lows at 1.2570. It has now finished a 3-wave a-b-c correction and there is a strong possibility it could resume its move down from here.

 

Overall the pair is still in a short-term down-trend which remains intact, despite the recent pull-back, and this trend will probably continue lower. Today's Non-Farm Payrolls - being the most market-moving release on the calendar - could be the catalyst for such a resumption.

 

A break below the 1.2570 lows might provide confirmation of such a move lower, with the S1 monthly pivot at 1.2411 providing the next target lower at the S1 monthly pivot.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/EURUSD03.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: attempting to break below major trend-line

 

The GBP/USD is continuing its v.short-term down-trend within a broader wave down which started after the July highs. It has broken through support from the border-line of the large multi-year triangle at 1.6153 and has moved lower towards the next target at the 1.6050 September 10th lows.

 

There is major event risk on the horizon with the Non-Farm Payrolls release later today and this could provide a lot of volatility for cable. Given the short and v.short term trends are down the probabilities favour yet more downside, with expectations of a decisive break below the 1.6050 lows, including a 20-pip margin, so 1.6030, confirming another leg down towards the next target situated at the S1 monthly pivot at 1.5960.

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/GBPUSD03.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: down-trend extending

 

Again - we had another leg down, which took the pair into a new price strata. This came as a result of the release of favourable Non-Farm Payrolls' figures on Friday. The relentless down-trend continues unfolding, and I see it continuing: particularly since the current recovery this morning is too weak to pose any threat.

 

The next major price target for the down-trend is support from the S1 monthly pivot at 1.2411 and I expect the exchange rate to reach there, with a break below the 1.2499 lows providing the necessary confirmation for such an extension.

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/EURUSD06.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: recovery approaches highs

 

The USD/JPY recovered on Friday after Non-Farm Payrolls came out higher-than-expected, giving the dollar another boost, and pushing the pair back up to just shy of the 110.07 highs.

 

Despite the fact the pair looks over-extended and recent weakness seemed to be ushering in a new more bearish phase, it is a unique characteristic of financial markets that they can remain over-extended for long periods of time before becoming exhausted, so overall I am still bullish. Ultimately there is insufficient evidence that the pair has started a new down-trend and I still see the potential for higher exchange rates to come.

 

Ideally, however, I would want to see confirmation of this, from a push above the highs and break of 110.10 , with the next target above at the 111.59 level, where the R1 monthly pivot is situated.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/USDJPY06.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: rebound extends but not enough to change trend

 

The EUR/USD pair rebounded more strongly than I had previously expected. It is currently in the 1.2630s and still trying to rise higher. Despite this recovery, however, there is insufficient evidence of a reversal of the down-trend, on any of the time-frames. A break above the 1.2698 highs would provide some evidence for such a reversal but this has not yet happened. There could also be a 2-bar reversal on the daily chart, which is a short-term bullish indicator, but the second bar is a little short for it to be a really strong signal.

 

In the absence of more bullish evidence I remain bearish in line with the dominant trend. Therefore I am sticking with my original recommendations that a breach of the 1.2499 loans would probably provide confirmation of an extension down to the S1 monthly pivot at 1.2411.

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/EURUSD07.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: a-b-c pull-back in down-trend

 

The pair has rebounded in what looks like a completed a-b-c correction on lower time-frames. If so, then another wave down is probable as the pair resumes its down-trend. It has respected its trend-line all the way down so far and will probably continue respecting it.

 

Panning out to higher-time frames and it is clear the exchange rate has broken below the major support level at the upper border line of a large triangle at around 1.6000, and fallen to 1.5950 lows, before recovering and rebounding higher again. It has bounced back up to the upper border line now, where it is currently forming an indecisive spinning-top candlestick pattern on the daily chart.

 

The dominant short-term down-trend will probably resume. A clear break below the 1.5950 lows would provide the confirmation for the next move down towards the next target at both natural support at 1.5840 and the S1 monthly pivot at the same level.

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/GBPUSD07.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: bounce extending but down-trend still intact

 

The EUR/USD pair continues to rebound but there is insufficient evidence to support a change in the trend. Looking at price action on the 4-hr chart it is possible to see a 3 wave rise higher, but this could merely be an a-b-c correction of the dominant down-trend. It would require a break above the 1.2683 highs to signal 2 higher lows and 2 higher highs and a reversal of the v. short-term trend.

 

Another bullish sign would be a break above the 1.2698 highs. There has already been a 2-bar reversal pattern at the lows on the daily chart - another bullish sign, however, the set-up is flawed because the second bar is a little shorter than ideal.

 

In the absence of more bullish evidence I remain bearish in line with the dominant trend. Therefore I am sticking with my original recommendations that a breach of the 1.2499 lows would probably provide confirmation of an extension down to the S1 monthly pivot at 1.2411.

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/EURUSD08.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: a-b-c correction completing within up-trend

 

The exchange rate has corrected back in a 3-wave a-b-c formation, visible on the 4-hour chart, falling back down to 107.80. It may have completed its correction and there could now be a resumption of the up-trend back up to the 110.07 highs. Confirmation would come from a break above the 110.10 level, which would target the R1 monthly pivot situated at 111.59.

 

Alternatively a move down below the current lows at 107.74 would probably bring into doubt the dominant up-trend and potentially signal a reversal of the v.short-term trend. Such a reversal could lead to a new bearish phases for the currency pair, but in its absence the outlook still remains bullish.

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/USDJPY08.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: v.short-term trend probably bullish

 

The EUR/USD pair continued its rebound, rising above the 1.2683 highs, and signalling a reversal of the v.short-term trend. The pair rose higher, reaching the pivot at about 1.2791, before pulling-back to lows of 1.2605. Currently the pair is starting to move higher again.

 

Given the broader trend is strongly bearish there is overall pressure down, and there remains the the threat of exchange rates going lower. Nevertheless as the v.short-term trend has changed, and rates are moving higher there is also a strong possibility of a more significant correction unfolding.

 

Therefore I'm cautiously bullish, and a break above the monthly pivot including a 20-pip confirmation buffer - so a break above 1.2805 highs - would probably confirm a move higher up to resistance at 1.2855.

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/EURUSD13.png