Technical signals from Forex4you

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: cable at major support in down-trend

 

Cable has fallen to new lows at 1.6286 before bouncing back. It is currently consolidating just above support and resistance from old highs and lows at 1.6208. The short-term down-trend is very much bearish and expected to continue, but there are several layers of support lower down which could impede downside progress for the pair.

 

The S2 monthly pivot, for example, lies at 1.6266, and then there are major support and resistance levels lower down at 1.6250. The currency may well consolidate within this band. Ideally, therefore, I'd like to see a break clearly below, including a 20 pip confirmation gap, giving 1.6230 as a potential break level, and 1.6100 as an initial downside target. Non-Farm Payrolls are released today and could provide volatility.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/GBPUSD05.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: pausing in down-trend

 

After its torrid sell-off the pair is consolidating in the 1.2940s at a historic support line formed by connecting historic lows in 2012 and 13. It is in a strong down-trend which*is expected to extend. Tough support from the S2 monthly pivot is situated at 1.2912 not far below the current level. This means there are two strong levels below current price action, and ideally I should like to see a break below both, with a decisive breach of S2, including a 20 pip margin, at 1.2892, confirming more downside, to*a*target at 1.2750.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/EURUSD08.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: up-trend still intact

 

Not much of a change here: the pair has broken out of its large triangle pattern and moved higher. Ultimately it is now expected to reach the next upside target, which could be as high as 108.00, taking the triangle's minimum upside target, which is calculated as a 61.8% extrapolation of the height of the triangle.

 

The exchange rate broke above the R1 monthly pivot at 105.23, and it has now pulled back and is using the pivot for support. It will probably start to move higher again, however, and a break above the 105.69 highs aught to confirm such a move. The next immediate target would be at the R2 monthly pivot at 106.31.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/USDJPY08.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: in acute down-trend

 

EUR/USD finally broke down through the support line formed from multiple historic lows as well as the S2 monthly pivot situated at 1.2912. It is continuing its sell-off lower as I had hoped. There is little support preventing a much deeper sell-off.

 

As far as downside targets go 1.2800 is a possibility because it is a round number and the exchange rate may pause there for a while before extending lower. Below that is 1.2750 were a major support and resistance line is situated. In strongly trending markets there is little else to say. A possible entry point might be a couple of points below the 1.2850 round number.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/EURUSD09.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: eyeing major support at 1.6000

 

Cable continues to sell-off and given the lack of any reversal signals is expected to extend its trend still lower. I would want to see a breach of the current day's lows at 1.6063 for a signal of further downside, with the next target at support from the 200-week MA and round-number support residing at 1.6000.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/GBPUSD09.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: pausing to consolidate in down-trend

 

EUR/USD broke down through the support level formed by multiple historic lows at 1.2915 and the S2 monthly pivot at 1.2912. For a while it looked like it was going to extend the trend down to the next set of targets at round number support at 1.2800 and 1.2750 but the exchange rate recovered and has rise back above the previous support lines to currently trade at 1.2930.

 

A period of sideways consolidation seems likely, especially after the pair's recent oversold extremes, however, the down-trend remains dominant and likely to extend down further eventually, with the previously mentioned targets of 1.2800 and 1.2750 offering the next objectives for traders, and a break of the 1.2858 lows providing confirmation.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/EURUSD10.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: golden cross signal

 

USD/JPY is surging higher after breaking out of the large triangle which had been forming since the start of the year. The 50-day MA has crossed above the 200-day MA giving a high probability 'golden cross' buy signal. The pair is expected to move higher.

 

The target calculated from the height of the triangle extrapolated higher by 61.8% gives a figure of 108.00 as a final destination. The pair has just broken above resistance from the monthly pivot at 106.31 and is expected to climb higher to that target. A break above the 106.69 highs would probably give the necessary confirmation of such a move.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/USDJPY10.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: consolidating in down-trend

 

The EUR/USD pair has recovered and risen back up above a major support and resistance line at 1.2915 and the S2 monthly pivot at 1.2912. It is currently consolidating in the 1.2930s. It has probed lower, but it has since recovered and is in the process of forming a hammer on the weekly chart. It is still too early to expect a bullish reversal and the down-trend remains intact, and expected to extend lower.

 

A break below the 1.2858 lows could signal a continuation down to targets at 1.2800 (round-number support) and 1.2750.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/EURUSD11.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: a-b-c correctionb filling gap

 

The dominant down-trend is still intact and although there has been a strong recovery move higher which is closing the open gap between 1.6232 and 1.6277, the current move could still just be an a-b-c correction of the short-term down-trend.

 

The pair is currently pulling back from resistance from the S2 monthly pivot at 1.6266, which could lead to a consolidation, or even mark the end of the correction, and resumption of the down-trend.

 

Ultimately, I would be looking for a break of the 1.6050 lows before expecting a continuation lower to the next target at 1.6000 from round-number support and the 200-week MA.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/GBPUSD11b.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: small triangle forming

 

EUR/USD has fallen to support from historic lows just above 1.2900. It has consolidated into a small triangle which is visible on the 1 and 4 hour charts. The triangle will probably breakout to the downside because the prior trend was bearish and so it is expected to continue. The Chaikin Money Flow Index is showing weakness on the right-hand side of the pattern supporting the view of a downside break.

 

A breach of the 1.2858 lows could lead to a continuation lower, possibly to a new target at 1.2778, calculated from extrapolating the height of the triangle down by 61.8%.

 

Alternatively, although less probable, a clear break above the highs and the S2 monthly pivot at 1.2932 could indicate an upside breakout to a target at 1.3020.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/EURUSD12.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: continuing up towards 108.00 target

 

USD/JPY continues rising after breaking out of a large triangle and after the 50-day MA crossed over the 200-day MA, producing yet more bullish confirmation from a golden cross signal.

 

I expect the pair to continue higher towards an upside target of 108.00, calculated by extrapolating the height of the triangle 61.8% higher. A break above the current day's new 107.38 highs could provide the confirmation for such a move.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/USDJPY12.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: falling back down into range

 

The exchange rate formed a small triangle visible on the hourly chart. It broke out above the highs and temporarily rallied, but it has since lost momentum and fallen back down to support in the 1.2920s. The upside breakout now seems to have petered out.

 

The overall trend remains bearish, and will probably continue lower. A break below the 1.2870 lows would signal an extension down to the next target lower, situated at the major lows at 1.2750.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/EURUSD151.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: tough support underpinning current position

 

Sterling has risen to fill the gap which formed last monday. There is now more optimism about the outlook for Scottish independence although its still not clear which way the vote will go.

 

There is much technical support underpinning the current monthly lows at 1.6050, including the 200-week and 50-month MA's at 1.6001 and 1.6010, as well as the upper border of the multi-year triangle, visible on the monthly chart at 1.6140. 1.6000 is also a highly significant round number.

 

The v.short term and short term trends remain bearish and expected to continue lower, despite all the tough support. A breach below the 1.6000 lows, including a 20-pip confirmation margin would probably indicate such a continuation, down to support and resistance at 1.5855.

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: bearish trend intact; feint bullish signs

 

The EUR/USD pair continues to consolidate in a sideways move which initially resembled a triangle but, after a failed attempt to breakout, now simply looks like a 'flag' continuation pattern.

 

The overall trend remains bearish, and will probably continue lower, with a break below the 1.2870 lows signalling an extension down to the next target, situated at the major lows at 1.2750.

 

There is a bullish small-headed hammer candle-stick on the weekly chart, which is a bullish sign and could mark further upside, but it is still a little early to say, although a break above the current 1.2977 highs would reverse the short-term down-trend and add further evidence to the bullish case.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/EURUSD16.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: pausing in strong up-trend

 

USD/JPY is still in a strong rally higher, but it has stopped to pause temporarily and pulled back to consolidate. It will probably continue moving higher, possibly after the FOMC on Wednesday and Japanese Trade data released afterwards.

 

Once the pair resumes its ascent I expect to see it continue higher towards an upside target of 108.00, calculated by extrapolating the height of the triangle 61.8% higher. A break above the new 107.38 highs could provide the confirmation of such a move.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/USDJPY16.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: short-term trend reversing

 

EUR/USD remains in consolidation mode ahead of key event risk today, with the FOMC scheduled for 19.00 London time. Traders are waiting to see whether the central bank has changed its stance or not.

 

From a technical POV the very short-term trend, visible on the 4-hour chart, may have reversed, since the exchange rate has made two higher lows and two higher highs. There is also a pin-head hammer candlestick on the weekly chart – another bullish sign. Taken together these point to the possibility the pair might move higher, and negate expectations the broader down-trend continuing.

 

The S1 monthly pivot is situated not far above the current highs and this would need to be cleared, including a 20-pip margin for confirmation a reversal. Such a move, breaking above 1.3040 would generate a target just below 1.3100.

 

Alternatively a breach of the 1.2858 lows would still indicate a continuation lower, to a target at just above round-number support at 1.2800.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/EURUSD17c.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: a-b-c correction in down-trend

 

Cable continues gently rising ahead of the referendum on Scottish independence on Thursday. This event will probably cause substantial volatility. The trend is still down, and the current pull-back from the September 9 lows is probably just an a-b-c correction, which will eventually breakdown and extend the trend lower.

 

There is, however, a lot of support just below the 1.6050 lows, including the 200-week and 50-month MA's around the powerful round-number of 1.6000. The border of the multi-year triangle is also at 1.6140. All this support needs to be breached before the pair can go lower.

 

A move below 1.6000 including a 20 pip margin (1.5980) would ideally confirm an extension down. The next target to the downside would be at support and resistance situated at 1.5855, however, for a more conservative target there is round-number support at 1.5900.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/GBPUSD17.png

[joaquinmonfort]

AUD/USD: completing a-b-c correction in down-trend

 

The aussie has pulled back after making new lows on September the 15th. It is now rising higher in what is probably an a-b-c correction of the strong short-term down-trend. The correction has probably ended and there is a good chance the dominant down-trend will now resume.

 

Ideally I would like to see confirmation of this from a break below the 0.8983 lows, with that signalling a move down to support at 0.8936.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/AUDUSD17.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: down-trend resumes after FOMC

 

The EUR/USD exchange rate fell steeply after policymakers brought forward expectations of when they might increase interest rates at yesterday's FOMC.

 

This broke the fledgling v.short-term up-trend and saw a thrust down to 1.2834. The down-trend will probably continue further now as the v.short-term down-trend extends, although the bear trend is not as strong as previously.

 

As such a move below the 1.2834 lows would probably signal a continuation down to a target at round-number support at 1.2800. In the meantime, there is the possibility the current pull-back reaching resistance at 1.2900.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/EURUSD18.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: strong up-trend continuing

 

The USD/JPY has continued to rise strongly after breaking out of its large multi-month triangle. It is in a concerted short-term up-trend. It extended its rise even further after the FOMC on Wednesday which led to a continuation higher, rising above my previous target at 108.00, the minimum expectation for the breakout from the triangle at 61.8%.

 

It could rise even higher from here, moving up to the next target, possibly at the R3 monthly pivot at 109.25 - with a break above the 108.86 probably confirming the next stage higher.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/USDJPY18.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: broadening formation possibly unfolding

 

EUR/USD is consolidating in a possible broadening formation. It is currently falling within that formation and may well come down to the level of the lower border at 1.2830 eventually. There it will possibly rotate and start to move higher as the pattern continues to unfold.

 

Fundamentals are not as one-sidedly negative after the inflation rate showed a slight rise in August and the current broad consolidation is reflecting new investor indecision.

 

Trading within consolidations is risky and I do not usually make recommendations as a result. However, a concerted break to the downside, continuing the short-term down-trend is possible.

As such, a move below 1.2800, perhaps with 10 pip confirmation margin, so below 1.2790, could confirm a stronger break down to an initial target at support at 1.2750.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/EURUSD19.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: v.short-term trend reverses; signal mixed

 

Cable has shot up after the referendum vote led to a victory for the pro-unionists; now that it has been decided Scotland will remain in the U.K much of the uncertainty weighing on the pound has been removed.

 

GBP/USD ran up to a high of 1.6524 overnight but then fell back down by 40 pips to its current territory in the 1.6480s. It has rallied above a key down-sloping trend-line and has now posted 2 higher lows and 2 higher highs on the 4-hr chart, signalling a v.short-term reversal of trend to bullish.

 

This v.short-term trend will probably continue higher; I would want to see a move above the 1.6524 highs for confirmation of such an extension, with a target at 1.6600 and round-number resistance.

 

If today ends in the current pin-headed shooting star pattern, however, then that would be a bearish indication that the dominant down-trend was resuming. A clear break below the key 1.6245 swing lows could target support at 1.6155.

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/GBPUSD19.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: possible broadening formation unfolding

 

The exchange rate moved down to the lower border-line of what is possibly a half-formed broadening price-pattern. It has since bounced higher and it could start to move higher now as the next leg of the broadening formation unfolds.

 

The very short-term trend remains unclear, although it is probably still bearish. If the current pattern does not develop and the exchange rate continues it's dominant bearish trend lower instead, then there is a possibility that more downside could be confirmed by a break below 1.2790 – perhaps down to a target at support at 1.2750.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/EURUSD22.png

[joaquinmonfort]

AUD/USD: down-trend extending to key lows

 

The aussie continues falling even though it has now surpassed the target generated from the break out of the consolidation pattern which developed across the spring and early summer. Although the down-trend remains intact I'm more cautious now targets have been met.

 

There is some strong support anticipated not much lower then the current day's lows at 0.8841, from major historic lows formed in August 2013 and it is possible the exchange rate could stop at this level and consolidate. Therefore I would prefer to see a clear and decisive break below this level before expecting a downside extension, with perhaps 0.8821 as a confirmation level, and a move below there, signalling a probably move down towards the even more significant 0.8659 lows, although 0.8700 would provide an initial target at the round-number.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/AUDUSD22.png

[joaquinmonfort]

Silver: breaking out of large triangle

 

The price of silver has broken out of a major multi-month triangle and is expected to move lower. Although there has been a recovery from off the new 17.34 lows this morning, the pair has now decisively broken out of the triangle and more bearish moves are expected to follow.

 

The next target lower could be at the key support and resistance level at 15.23, the level of old highs. This would be followed by 14.62 which is the 61.8% fibonacci extension of the height of the triangle, which is the minimum price expectation for the price pattern breakout, as well as the level of key lows. I would first want to see a break below the 17.34, however, for confirmation of such a move down.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Silver22.png