Technical signals from Forex4you

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: pausing in short-term down-trend

 

The pair has fallen below all major MA's, including the 50-month and 200-week. The broader mid-term up-trend from the July lows could well be reversing, although it is still possible the current correction is just an a-b-c correction of the up-trend.

 

Both the short-term and v.short-term price action continues to be bearish. There is the possibility of a pull-back unfolding on the 30-min chart to a probable target in the 1.3390 region where there are some MA's clustered, but after that the dominant down-trend will probably resume. A break below the 1.3333 lows could provide the necessary confirmation of such a continuation lower, to a target at the monthly S1 pivot at 1.3270.

 

Alternatively a move above the 1.3432 highs would reverse the short-term down-trend, reinforcing the possibility of a recovery higher.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/EURUSD12b.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: bouncing within short-term down-trend

 

The pair has recovered after hitting lows of 101.50 last week. It has bounced back up to the major trend-line drawn from the Jan highs, and the 200-day MA at 102.25. On the 4-hour chart we can see that it is composed of roughly 3 legs in an a-b-c pattern, so it could be a correction of the dominant short-term down-trend.

 

Technically more downside is expected, with confirmation coming from a breach of the 101.50 lows, plus a 20-pip confirmation, as the S1 monthly pivot is situated nearby at 101.53. Therefore a move below 101.33 would be required, with the next target at 101.05.

 

The hammer with long wick which formed on the daily chart on Friday, was a very bullish sign and could indicate the current recovery move has higher to go. In this respect a break above 102.45 would be a key to potentially confirming more upside.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/USDJPY12b.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: consolidating in down-trend

 

On the 4-hour chart we can see that the pair has been in a concerted down-trend which shows no signs of fatigue. Even the indecisive activity over the last few days has not been enough to signal a bullish reversal and so the trend on my primary chart remains down.

 

Since we want to trade with the trend I would advocate to continue shorting, with renewed confirmation coming from a break below the 1.3333 lows and a target – for the conservative at historical support at 1.3290 - or for those with more appetite for risk at 1.3270 where the S1 monthly pivot is situated.

 

The mid-term trend is in doubt: a clear a-b-c correction on the daily chart could signal a recovery on the horizon, however, this is offset by a bearish monthly signal and 3 breaks of the redrawn trend-line. Although fundamental, a widening policy differential between the Fed and the ECB also supports dollar strength.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/EURUSD13b.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: cable extending lower

 

Cable has resumed its down-trend, plunging this morning following doveish commentary from BOE's Carney. It has broken straight through the S1 monthly pivot at 1.6761 and fallen sharply lower to form new lows at 1.6717.

 

The short-term trend seems to want to continue falling, and although momentum and OBV are diverging, trend trumps all other factors, so I expect a continuation lower, with the only proviso that caution should be exercised.

 

Assuming a re-break below the current session lows at 1.6717, I would then expect a move to continue down to the next target at historic support situated at 1.6692, or quite possibly the 200-day MA at 1.6650.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/GBPUSD13c.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: consolidating ahead of key data

 

The pair continues to consolidate in what is starting to look like a falling wedge pattern. This is a reversal pattern and could signal a change in the short-term down-trend, however, its still too early to say for certain since there has been no upside breakout. Therefore we must assume the dominant short-term down-trend will remain effective and carry lower, with a less-probable surprise break to the upside as a secondary possibility.

 

Today sees the release of key data which could lead to volatile moves. A move below the 1.3333 lows would confirm a break to the downside, with an initial target situated at 1.3290 followed by 1.3270 where the S1 monthly pivot is situated.

 

Alternatively if current activity is a wedge and breaks to the upside then a move above the 1.3444 highs would help to signal such a move higher, with an eventual target at 1.3485, or possibly even 1.3551.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/EURUSD14b.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: change in the v.short-term trend

 

The USD/JPY moved higher after the release of GDP data on Wednesday morning. There was a break above the key 102.45 highs signalling a change in the v.short-term trend - making it bullish.

 

After rising up to highs of 102.65, however, the pair suddenly lost momentum and has since pulled back down. It is now attempting to break below the trend-line of the new up-trend, but it has not yet. The monthly pivot and the 200-day MA lying at 102.30 will probably provide support to the current pull-back, and lead to a probable resumption of the up-trend. A move above 102.65 would probably indicate such a continuation with the next most likely target at the 102.90 highs.

 

On the weekly chart the pair still appears to be in a very extended sideways move, with a break above 104.12 required to signal a bullish breakout.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/USDJPY14b.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: coiling in wedge or triangle formation

 

EUR/USD continues consolidating in a wedge-like or triangular formation visible on the 4-hour chart. It has completed the minimum 5 waves so a breakout is probably due quite soon. The only market moving data today, however, baring an 'act of god', is during the U.S session, so a breakout is possible then.

 

As I have already noted in previous analyses pieces the pair will probably continue its dominant short-term down-trend lower. A break below the 1.3333 lows would signal such a move lower, targeting historic support initially at 1.3290 and then the S1 monthly pivot at 1.3270.

 

A plausible alternative is that the wedge is a reversal pattern, and the pair is poised to go higher. A breakout above the 1.3444 highs would probably indicate a rally to a target at 1.3485 - then possibly by 1.3551 using the width of the wedge to calculate.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/EURUSD15b.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: pausing in down-trend; support ahead

 

After falling to the 200-day MA cable bounced a little and then started to consolidate. This morning's GDP figures showed no change and so the exchange rate continued moving sideways at about the 1.6690 level.

 

Nevertheless, the short-term down-trend is expected to continue, although there are some strong layers of support which it may have difficulty in breaching. First there is the 200-day at 1.6660 and then the S1 monthly pivot at 1.6640. Both are likely to provide substantial support. For a really definitive clearance I would want to see a move 20 pips below the pivot – so below 1.6620. There could then be a clearer run down to the next target situated at the 50-week MA at 1.6540.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/GBPUSD15c.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: pattern completing; breakout lower expected

 

The EUR/USD is still moving in a range above the 1.3340s. It has formed what could be a wedge or triangle formation. This pattern has probably now almost complete because it is composed of 5 larger waves, followed by 5 smaller waves – possibly a rare triangle followed by a triangle.

 

The short-term trend before the price pattern formed is down and it will probably continue, with a breakout to the downside and continuation lower expected. Confirmation would come from a break below the 1.3333 lows, with an initial target at historic support at 1.3290 and then 1.3270. Other indicators also favour a more general bullish breakout for the dollar across all pairs.

 

There is a lesser possibility the pattern is signalling a reversal, and a move above the 1.3444 highs might signal a rally up to 1.3485, followed possibly by 1.3551, calculated using the width of the wedge as a guide.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/EURUSD18b.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: lack of decisive trend; traders stand aside

 

Friday's sudden sell-off has brought the v.short-term up-trend into doubt, after forming a lower low. The exchange rate has since recovered and is currently trading at 102.45, 15 pips above the 200-day and the monthly pivot at 102.30. The pair could go in either direction from here and it may be better for traders to stand aside given the lack of a strong trend on any of the time-frames.

 

From the weekly chart we can see that the medium term trend remains sideways. It is unclear which way the exchange will breakout, although the broad long-term up-trend since 2012 seems to indicate the possibility of more upside eventually. A break above 104.12 would be required to signal such a breakout, although we are far from that level yet.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/USDJPY18b.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: trading at bottom of range

 

EUR/USD is moving sideways between around 1.3340 and 1.3420 on the 4-hour chart. It has recently moved from near the top of the range to the bottom. Although it could break out in either direction, it is more likely that it will break to the downside, continuing the previous short-term down-trend.

 

A break below the 1.3333 would provide strong confirmation of a move lower down to an initial target at 1.3290, followed by 1.3270, where the S1 monthly pivot is situated.

 

The pattern is probably a triangle but it could be a wedge. It has completed the minimum number of constituent waves so a breakout is possible at any-time. U.S Inflation data could provide the catalyst today – or perhaps the Fed minutes on Wednesday, or commentary from Jackson Hole on Thursday or Friday.

 

Less likely is a break to the upside, with a move above the 1.3444 highs confirming a possible move up to 1.3485, followed possibly by 1.3551, calculated using the width of the wedge as a guide.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/EURUSD18b2.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: renewing its down-trend

 

Cable has renewed its down-trend, reversing yesterday's rapid gains and breaking cleanly below the 200-day MA which was supporting the lows at 1.6667. It is now made new lows at the 1.6633 level, which is just below the monthly pivot situated at 1.6640. It has since bounced back up to 1.6647 - just above the pivot - and it appears to be supporting price successfully, and will probably continue to do so for a while.

 

A stronger bearish signal would come from a move below the pivot including a 20 pip confirmation at 1.6620. This would lead to a fall into 'open ground', with little to impede progress down to the next target at 1.6540.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/GBPUSD19c.png

Edited August 19, 2014 by joaquinmonfort

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: breakout in motion

 

The EUR/USD pair has bearishly broken out of its sideways consolidation, moving down to an initial first target at 1.3290, situated at a previous support and resistance level. The exchange rate will probably fall further, reaching the next target at 1.3270, where the S1 monthly pivot is situated and which is the 61.8% extension of the height of the triangle, a usual minimum objective for breakouts.

 

Today sees the release of the Fed's August meeting minutes and these could provide the impetus for a further move lower. A renewed break below the 1.3284 day's lows would probably confirm a move down to the pivot at 1.3270, although it only offers 14 pips of profit before costs. RSI is oversold on 4-hr, daily and weekly charts so caution is required, although there are no signs of bullish convergence or a reversal either, so the bearish trend remains intact.

 

A clear break below the pivot could be confirmed by a move below1.3250, with a target then at the 100% extrapolation of the triangle's height at 1.3220.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/EURUSD20b.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: mesured move forming

 

The current short-term trend is showing the formation of a classic measured move from the 101.50 lows, which is currently unfolding its C leg higher. C has still not quite reached 100% of A but it is close and it is possible a correction may happen soon, although given the lack of any signs of this happening yet, the up-trend remains intact.

 

As such bulls will have their sights on the R1 monthly pivot situated at 103.56, which could resist further upside. A clear break above that including a 20-pip confirmation gap, gives a level of 103.76 to confirm, with the next target at the 104.12 highs.

 

The monthly and weekly charts are showing more bullish signs and a break above the key 104.12 highs could put the stamp of confirmation on a major bullish a breakout from the mid-term sideways range, which has been unfolding since January.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/USDJPY20a.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: down-trend overshadowed by signs of exhaustion

 

The EUR/USD pair has fallen to new lows at 1.3241 but has since rebounded following the release of better-than-expected German PMI data. It has now reached the level of the S1 monthly pivot at about 1.3270. It will probably rotate at this level and continue falling, given the dominant short-term down-trend. However, there is a chance of a bullish reversal because we have reached such oversold levels – and a break above 1.3290 might mark a stronger bounce and the possibility of the reversal in the v.short-term trend.

 

Whilst there is a possibility of a move down to 1.3220 - the 100% extension of the height of the triangle, the minimum the 61.8% extension at 1.3270 has already been met so the possibility diminishes. On the 4-hr chart RSI has given a buy signal.

 

Because of the dangers of a reversal I would be looking for a break below the 1.3241 lows for confirmation of more down-side, although the next target is at 1.3220, only 21 pips lower, and because the pair is so oversold, this target is fairly speculative.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/EURUSD21b.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: down-trend extending

 

Cable has fallen to new lows at 1.6556, at the level of the 50-week MA and has since bounced from there back up to 1.6580s. It is still in a concerted down-trend, with no signs of reversal yet,

so a break below the 1.6536 lows would provide me with the confirmation I would want to see for a further extension lower - to a possible target at the next major level of support at 1.6475.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/GBPUSD21b.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: relentless down-trend continues

 

Bears remain in command: the very short and short term trends continue down, with no relief on the horizon; last week was so weak that the odds favour the establishment of even deeper lows. In addition, panning out, the longer-term view indicates a probable eventual slide into the the 1.20s.

 

Currently the pair is attempting a small pull-back on the 4-hour chart, and it could rise up until it meets resistance at the down-wards sloping trend-line at around 1.3165 mark; from there it is expected to rotate and move lower.

 

Downside support kicks in at historic support and resistance at 1.3109 where the pair could find support, but below that we don't encounter anything until 1.3020 where the S1 monthly pivot is situated. I would therefore be looking for confirmation of more downside from a break below the historic S&R level, which with a 20-pip confirmation gap, gives 1.3089 as a confirmation break level, and a target at 1.3020.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/EURUSD01b.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: fledgling up-trend begins

 

The very short term trend visible on the 4-hour chart has actually now reversed from down to up. In addition the RSI indicator has given a buy signal after being oversold. Therefore in the short-term more upside is expected as the fragile up-trend extends.

 

The exchange rate has just reached resistance from the down-sloping trend-line of the recent fall, however, which is likely to delay progress. As such I would want to see a decisive break above this trend-line to confirm further propulsion higher. Such a break could gain confirmation from a move above the current day's highs at 1.6643.

 

The down-trend remains dominant on the daily chart so I would advocate a conservative policy in selecting upside targets, with very firm resistance at 1.6687 from the 200-day MA and historic support and resistance, providing a likely initial upside target for the pair.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/GBPUSD01.jpg

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: bouncing off historic support level

 

EUR/USD has fallen to new lows at 1.3114 where it has*encountered support from an old support and resistance line at the level of historic lows, and rebounded up to the current level at 1.3130. The rebound might continue up to 1.3145 first where a trend-line sits offering resistance, however, a break lower after that is probable as the short-term trend extends lower.

 

I would ideally want to see a clear and decisive break below the support line from historic lows at 1.3109, including a 20-pip confirmation gap, giving a break level 1.3089. The target to the downside from there would be 1.3020.

 

The ECB rate meeting is on Thursday, and with the summer behind us and policy-makers in a more proactive mood the event might provide the catalyst for the next leg down.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/EURUSD02.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: breakout from large triangle confirmed

 

USD/JPY has rallied strongly. It has broken above the 104.12 highs, which is a critical level, confirming the breakout from the triangular sideways consolidation which the pair has been stuck in since January. This has generated a long-term minimum upside target of 108.00 based on a 61.8% extension of the height of the triangle higher.

 

Zooming in a little, however, the next major resistance level short-term is situated at the R1 monthly pivot at 105.22, followed by the previous highs at 105.43. I would expect the short-term trend to continue higher up to 105.23 initially, followed by a continuation above that to 108.00, eventually. A break above the current 105.01 highs would indicate such a move.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/USDJPY02.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: a-b-c correction in down-trend

 

The pair is currently correcting strongly, rising above the trend-line for the most recent move down. There is a possibility it could correct back higher to resistance at 1.3175, however, the down-trend remains intact and the pair will probably eventually resume its bearish trend.

 

Tomorrow's ECB rate meeting could provide the impetus for the next leg lower, if commentary represents a material step in a more doveish policy direction.

 

The current correction may just be a simple a-b-c correction of the down-trend - which if so - means the down-trend will probably resume soon, pushing the pair down again, with a break below historic support and the 1.3089 confirmation level, indicating a fresh move lower was underway, with a target at 1.3020.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/EURUSD03.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: bouncing within down-trend

 

Sterling eventually resumed its short-term down-trend after flirting with breaking above a down-sloping trend-line. It fell strongly yesterday to below the 1.6475 down-side target, making new lows of 1.6444. This represented a decisive breach of the 50-week MA which had temporarily propped up prices.

 

Historic support may have helped stabilize the currency by offering demand clustered around its 1.6464 level resulting in the current rebound since the collapse. The exchange rate is now back up in the 1.6480s, and although rebounding well, will probably nevertheless resume its down-trend eventually, although the S1 monthly pivot at 1.6428 would be expected to provide robust support, severely limiting down-side potential, therefore I should want to see a clear break below that including a 20 pip confirmation gap – at 1.6408 with the next target lower at 1.6266.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/GBPUSD031.png

Edited September 3, 2014 by joaquinmonfort

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: down-trend bias ahead of ECB meeting

 

The pair remains in consolidation mode ahead of the ECB rate meeting at 12.45 GMT today. Traders are standing aside to see whether the ECB has shifted it's policy stance as there are many who think it might become more doveish. Such a shift could provide the catalyst for the next move lower in the pair.

 

This would continue the short-term down-trend. Historic lows provide robust support at 1.3109 and this level must first be cleared to open the way down, including a 20-pip confirmation gap, to give a break below 1.3089 for confirmation of a continuation to the next major support level at the S1 monthly pivot at 1.3020.

 

A move above the 1.3160 highs as a well as a daily close higher, however, might indicate a bullish reversal on the horizon.

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/EURUSD04.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: several resistance levels impeding up-trend

 

The up-trend remains intact and the break above the 104.12 historic highs confirmed the breakout from the large triangle pattern. Currently price has corrected back but it will probably soon recover and move higher again.

 

The only problem is that there are two main impediment to further progress. These are fristly the R1 monthly pivot sitting at 105.23, followed by the major highs at 105.43. Ideally I should want to see a clearance above the major highs, plus 20 pips for confirmation, giving a level of 105.63, to confirm a continuation higher; with a target above that, at 106.31.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/USDJPY04.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: sell-off finds support at S2 monthly pivot

 

The EUR/USD fell over 200 pips in a single day on Thursday after the ECB announced more easing. The break lower reinforced the dominant short-term down-trend. The pair has reached the S2 monthly pivot at 1.2912 and it could pause here. There is also support and resistance at the same level.

 

For a continuation lower, I should want to see a clear break below the S2*monthly pivot, including a 20 pip confirmation gap, giving a level of 1.2892. The next substantial level of support after that would be round number support at 1.2800 and the major swing lows clustered at and around the 1.2750 level.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/EURUSD05.png

Edited September 5, 2014 by joaquinmonfort