Technical signals from Forex4you

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: trading on support from major trend-line

 

The analysis has changed little from Friday: the pair is consolidating on a major trend-line drawn from the 2012 lows. It is in a short and very short-term down-trend but the major trend-line is blocking an extension down.

 

A clear break below the 2012 trend-line including a 20-pip confirmation margin, at 1.3485 could lead to a bearish breakdown to an initial target at the S2 monthly pivot at 1.3436. It might indicate a major bearish mid-term reversal too. There is a possible H&S pattern at the highs (since Nov 2013) which could indicate an even deeper fall to a target at 1.3000.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/EURUSD21b.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: volatility low; breakout on horizon?

 

As I observed last week the pair continues to form a sideways consolidation on both the daily and weekly charts. The pattern looks a little like a right-angled triangle and could forecast more downside if there is a break below the horizontal lower border. Given the trend preceding the pattern was down (from the Jan highs) it would be expected to continue afterwards. It's also worth bearing in mind that these sorts of low volatility formations often precede strong breakouts.

 

On lower time-frames like the 4-hour the chart is a real mess with price-action oscillating in a tight range. Currently the pair is rising and could rally to the upper border of the pattern at 101.90, but with no clear trend its also possible it could break lower.

 

Weekly ADX is at all-time record lows. ADX measures how strongly prices are trending and obviously in this sideways environment it has fallen sharply. Its now so 'oversold' it could indicate a strong trend is about to begin. A move below the S1 pivot at the lower border line (including a 20-pip margin) of 100.55, could confirm a downside break, targeting 96.30 eventually, calculated by extrapolating the width of the consolidation.

 

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/USDJPY21b.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: pressing major trend-line

 

The pair continues to press on the major trend-line drawn from the 2012 lows. It is starting to move lower again this morning. The trend in the very short and short term points down, and is expected to continue if the trend-line is decisively broken.

 

A break below 1.3485 could provide the necessary confirmation of a bearish breakdown, with an initial target at the S2 monthly pivot at 1.3436. It might indicate a major bearish mid-term reversal too. There is a possible H&S pattern at the highs (since Nov 2013) which could indicate an even deeper fall eventually, to a target at 1.3000.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/EURUSD22.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: still consolidating in an up-trend

 

No real change here: Cable continues to consolidate in what could be a flag pattern but increasingly looks like something less clear cut. Nevertheless, its still probably a continuation pattern given the dominant trend remains up and there are no strong signs of it losing momentum.

 

For confirmation of a continuation higher and a breakout to the upside I would want to see a move above the 1.7190 highs, which would then target the R1 monthly pivot at 1.7250. Alternatively, if the decline continues, it will probably fall to tough support provided by the major trend-line drawn from the July 2013 lows.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/GBPUSD22c.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: trend-line broken

 

The EUR/USD pair has broken down through the major trend-line drawn from the 2012 lows. This is quite a significant bearish sign and strengthens the short and very short-term bearish trends.

 

The exchange rate has fallen close to the next target at the S2 monthly pivot situated at 1.3436. It will probably pause to consolidate once it has reached the pivot. Eventually it is expected to fall more deeply, with the next target at roughly 1.3375, calculated by extrapolating the height of the peak before the break down.

 

A break below the current day lows at 1.3453 would confirm a move to the 1.3436 target; a break below 1.3416 would confirm a move down to the 1.3375 target.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/EURUSD23.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: still going sideways

 

No real change here: the pair continues to go sideways on almost all time-frames.

It may have formed a right-angled triangle with bearish connotations.

 

On the daily chart it looks like the pair is starting to move down after a recovery move. A break above 101.59, however, would be a bullish sign and reassert the very short-term up trend, possibly resulting in a move up to the upper border-line at 101.80.

 

As I have noted several times now ADX on the weekly chart is oversold and this could indicate a breakout is on the horizon. A move below the S1 pivot at the lower border line (including a 20-pip margin) of 100.55, could confirm a downside break, targeting 96.30 eventually, calculated by extrapolating the width of the consolidation.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/USDJPY23.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: bouncing from S2 monthly pivot

 

The EUR/USD pair broke through the major trend-line drawn from the 2012 lows and continued its short-term down-trend lower. Since then it has found support from the S2 monthly pivot at 1.3436, and has bounced. This rebound could run up to resistance at 1.3495 but after that the short-term trend is expected to reassert itself and the pair will probably continue falling lower.

 

A clear break below the S2 monthly pivot, including a 20 pip confirmation, at 1.3415 would probably signal a continuation lower, to the next target, at roughly 1.3375, calculated by extrapolating the height of the peak before the 2012 trend-line. Beyond that, the next target would be at 1.3300, calculated from the possible H&S pattern which may have formed at the recent highs.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/EURUSD24.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: finding support at major trend-line

 

Cable is still pulling back within a strong mid-term up-trend. It has now reached a significant support level after touching down on the major trend-line drawn from the June 2013 lows. It will probably pause at this level and could reassert its mid-term up-trend from here. A move above the 1.7053 highs could provide the necessary confirmation for such a recovery, with an initial target at 1.7095.

 

The length of the recent pull-back has been quite long, however, and this means the very short-term trend is now bearish despite the charts overall bullish bias. There is now a possibility that this very short-term trend could extend lower, and a break below 1.6980 would signify a clear penetration of the trend-line and generate a down-target at the 50-day MA, at 1.6954.

 

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/GBPUSD24.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: dead cat bounce over; pushing down again

 

The pair has found support at the S2 monthly pivot after breaking down below the major trend-line drawn from the 2012 lows. The short-term trend is firmly down and expected to continue once S2 has been broken. A dead cat bounce on Thursday has now finished and the exchange rate is once again being pulled down. A clearance of 20 pips below the S2 pivot at 1.3415 would provide confirmation of a continuation down, and target 1.3375. Eventually the pair should reach 1.3300, confirmed by a break below 1.3350.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/EURUSD25.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: v.short-term trend is 'up'

 

The break above the 101.59 highs signalled a reversal of the very short-term trend and was followed by a rally up to the upper border of the consolidation range at 101.90. The exchange rate is currently pushing up against the upper border-line and seems to want to break above it. For confirmation I would want to see a move above 102.13. This would be a very bullish sign, and would target the R1 monthly pivot at 102.31. The 200-day MA lies at 101.93, however, directly above the exchange rate's current level and is another obstacle to movement higher.

 

On longer time-frames the pair remains in an extended sideways movement, with mixed interpretations as to which direction it will breakout in, although the record low ADX on the weekly chart indicates a breakout is close at hand. A move above the 102.26 highs would be a bullish breakout sign whilst a move below 100.55 a bearish sign.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/USDJPY25b.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: attempting to break below S2 monthly pivot

 

The pair continues falling in a short-term down-trend which I expect to extend. It has temporarily pierced below the S2 monthly pivot before pulling back up to it again. It is possible it may air-kiss it goodbye from its current level, and then resume it's descent. A re-break of the 1.3420 lows would probably confirm a continuation lower to the next target at 1.3375. There is also a possibility that eventually the pair will reach the next target below that at 1.3300, confirmed by a break below 1.3350.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/EURUSD28.png

Edited July 28, 2014 by joaquinmonfort

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: down-trend extending to S3 monthly pivot

 

The EUR/USD has now decisively broken below the S2 monthly pivot and is continuing its short-term down-trend lower. It will probably fall to the next level of support at 1.3370, where S3 is situated, although the month ends tomorrow and pivots will recalculate on Friday so it is only a temporary level of support.

 

For those seeking confirmation, a break below the current day lows at 1.3394 , or possibly 1.3390 could provide necessary confirmation that the next leg lower was unfolding.

 

Today is FOMC day and there is also 2nd quarter GDP data from the U.S so there could be a lot of volatility. With this in mind, a further break below 1.3350 could signal a stronger move to the next target at 1.3300, or eventually 1.3210 - the end target for the C leg of a possible measured move down from the highs.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/EURUSD30.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: continuing short-term down-trend lower

 

The pair has clearly broken below the 50-day MA and is extending lower; the short-term down-trend is still very much intact and expected to continue. The next bearish target for the pair is at about 1.6850, where the 100-day MA and the S1 monthly pivot are situated. A break below the 1.6925 day's lows would probably provide the necessary confirmation for such an extension towards the aforesaid target.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/GBPUSD30.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: down-trend expected to extend lower

 

EUR/USD has sold off heavily following excellent data for the dollar yesterday. It is in a strong short-term down-trend which will probably extend lower. Most recently it has fallen to support from the S3 pivot at 1.3370 and bounced. Tomorrow the monthly pivots will recalculate at the start of the new month so S3 will almost certainly move, weakening support at that level. Therefore a break below the 1.3365 lows would probably be enough to confirm more downside, targeting support at 1.3290 next.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/EURUSD31.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: breaking out above consolidation

 

The strong rally yesterday continued the very short-term up-trend higher, as well as breaking above the upper border line of the triangular-shaped consolidation, indicating a probable breakout move has started. Whilst the pair is currently pulling back it will probably resume its up-trend soon, and move higher. If the breakout is legitimate then the exchange rate will probably eventually match the 105.43 highs.

 

In the nearer term, however, a break above 103.08 would provide confirmation of more upside; and the 104.10 highs providing an initial target higher.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/USDJPY31b.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: pausing in down-trend

 

The EUR/USD pair is consolidating in a down-trend, after finding support from the S3 monthly pivot at 1.3370. S3 has now moved because it is a new month and this has opened the way up to a continuation lower. The short-term trend is still bearish and expected to extend.

 

A break below the 1.3365 lows would probably therefore confirm more downside, targeting support initially at 1.3290.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/EURUSD01c.png

Edited August 1, 2014 by joaquinmonfort

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: 100-day MA breached

 

The pair has now broken below both the 50 and 100-day MA's. The short-term down-trend is still very much intact and expected to continue. Most recently there has been a clear break below the 100-day. Whilst a pull-back to the MA at 1.6857 for a final air-kiss goodbye is possible the pair may also simple move lower before then as the down-trend is so dominant.

 

A move below the current day lows at 1.6820 could be sufficient to confirm a deeper sell-off, perhaps down to the S1 monthly pivot at 1.6763.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/GBPUSD01.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: a-b-c correction in down-trend

 

The EUR/USD pair has risen after finding support at the lows. It has formed a possible a-b-c correction on the 4-hour chart. The short-term and very short-term trends remain firmly bearish and are expected to continue lower. A move below the 1.3366 lows would provide confirmation of a continuation lower to the next support level at around 1.3280.

 

However, a break above the 1.3444 highs would change the very short-term trend to bullish and lead to a move higher, probably back up to resistance from the monthly pivot at 1.3490.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/EURUSD04.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: v.short-term up-trend still intact

 

The USD/JPY pair has broken above a key resistance line drawn from the January highs. This could signal a breakout from the triangle-shaped consolidation zone, to the upside. The very short-term up-trend remains intact and likely to extend. A break above 103.08 would be key in establishing a continuation higher. The next target would be at 104.10.

 

The recent sharp sell-off visible on the hourly chart, however indicates the possibility of a deeper correction. A break below the monthly pivot at the 102.31 lows would be critical in this respect, as it would confirm a change in the very short-term trend. For confirmation I would want to see a break below 102.25. The 200-day at 102.13 lies not far below, allowing little scope for immediate gain, however.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/USDJPY04.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: breaking lower after a-b-c correction

 

EUR/USD looks like it has started to renew its down-trend after completing an a-b-c correction on the 4-hour chart. As I noted in the previous analysis the short and very short-term trends are bearish and so the move down is expected to extend further, with a break below the 1.3366 lows providing ultimate confirmation, and the next target lower at 1.3280.

 

A move above the 1.3444 highs, however, would change the direction of the very short-term trend, making it bullish, and leading to a move higher, probably to the monthly pivot at 1.3490.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/EURUSD05.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: correction in strong short-term bear

 

Cable is rising strongly after completing a harami reversal candlestick pattern on the daily chart. It has now broken cleanly above the 100-day MA. Although showing many of the hallmarks of a possible reversal and the start of an extended recovery move, it is still too early to say for sure and ultimately the short and very short-term trends remain bearish. Indeed the current recovery could be an a-b-c correction.

 

Therefore a continuation lower is still expected, with a move below the 1.6844 lows possibly supplying some confirmation, at least for a move down to the 1.6808 lows, although I would prefer to see a break below those lows for more cast iron confirmation of a continuation down to the next target at the S1 pivot at 1.6763. A break above the 1.6887 on the other hand might suggest a change in the very short-term trend to 'up'.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/GBPUSD05.png

Edited August 5, 2014 by joaquinmonfort

[joaquinmonfort]

AUD/USD: sideways consolidation; down-side bias intraday

 

Broadly speaking this pair is in a long sideways consolidation within a short-to-mid term up-trend. Because the trend prior to the formation of the consolidation was bullish it is more likely the pair will eventually breakout to the upside.

 

Zooming in - we can see the very short-term trend, visible on the 4-hour chart, is unclear, although on balance it is probably bearish. The exchange rate is trading on the 100-day MA but it is trying penetrate below, and a move under 0.9308 could possibly signal an extension towards the 0.9274 lows. The lack of volatility, however, makes it difficult to forecast with any certainty.

 

Alternatively, the most recent recovery has been relatively strong and could be the start of a longer up-move. A break of the current 0.9342 highs would at least clarify the very short-term trend as 'up' and target multiple resistance levels at 0.9365.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/AUDUSD05.png

Edited August 5, 2014 by joaquinmonfort

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: down-trend extending; pull-back possible

 

The EUR/USD has fallen to new lows as the short-term trend extends. Although it is expected to continue falling a hammer candlestick with a long-wick is currently in the process of forming on the 4-hour chart, and this might indicate the start of a bullish recovery. A break above the 1.3377 highs could signal a move up to 1.3405.

 

In the absence of any stronger reversal signals, however, the down-trend is expected to continue - whether before or after a correction. A break below the hammer lows at 1.3348 would probably provide confirmation of another leg down, targeting 1.3275 or thereabouts for support from the S1 monthly pivot.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/EURUSD06b.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: dominant down-trend probably resuming

 

Cable has broken down again after completing an a-b-c correction in the middle of a strong down-trend. It is now probably resuming the trend lower, which is expected to continue in the absence of any reversal signs so far.

 

There has already been a break below the 1.6844 mini-swing lows, probably confirming a a move back down to the 1.6808 lows. However, a break below those key lows would provide stronger confirmation of a continuation down, probably to the next target at the S1 monthly pivot at 1.6763.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/EURUSD06b.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: v.short-term trend turns bearish

 

USD/JPY has been declining over the very short term. It has now probably pushed below the upper border-line of the large triangular consolidation formation which has been unfolding since January. The very-short-term trend is now bearish although downside recently stopped at support from the monthly pivot at 102.31.

 

I would ideally wish to see a move of at least 20 pips below this pivot before confirming a break and continuation down. This gives a confirmation break level of 102.11.*A move below that would probably indicate another leg lower, however, the 200-day at 102.15 stands in the way, as does the 50-day MA not far below at 101.90, both limiting gains to the downside.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/USDJPY06c.png

Edited August 6, 2014 by joaquinmonfort