Technical signals from Forex4you

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: retroceso en tendencia alcista

 

The EUR/USD pair has started pulling back after rallying up to the R1 monthly pivot at 1.3956 It could be forming a small pennant continuation pattern on the hourly chart, indicating probably more upside, perhaps to 1.3995, using the pole to calculate a target. If the pull-back continues lower, however, it could find support at around the 1.3890 level, before probably rotating and going higher again.

 

A break above the R1 monthly pivot is required to confirm more upside, with a 'safe' 20 pip clearance giving a confirmation level of 1.3976. A continued bullish outlook is supported by the intact medium-term up-trend and the break above the major 2008 trend-line.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/EURUSD07.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: up-trend extending

 

The GBP/USD pair has rallied up to the R1 monthly pivot at 1.6998 and pulled back.

It is currently consolidating in what is probably a flag continuation pattern which will probably break higher, continuing the dominant up-trend and targeting the R2 monthly pivot at 1.7123. Confirmation of of a move higher would be helped by a clearance of R1 including a 20 pip buffer, at 1.7018.

 

RSI is heavily overbought on the 4-hr so the pull-back may extend, perhaps to the old trend-lane at 1.6960 or even support at 1.6922. However, the mid-term trend is strongly bullish and the weekly chart is showing a bullish continuation pattern, composed of two long green up-weeks and a small body sandwiched in between, so more upside is expected afterwards.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/GBPUSD07.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: up-trend probably resuming

 

The EUR/USD pair has recovered after its pull-back. The very short-term up-trend remains dominant and will probably rise back up to the 1.3956 highs and re-touch them. It may even be breaking out above a bullish flag with an upside target at 1.4000. The R1 monthly pivot at 1.3956 however could resist further advances.

 

It is the ECB rate meeting today so volatility is possible. A clear break above R1 - including a 20-pip margin - could be necessary to provide more convincing evidence of a continuation higher. A break above 1.3976 confirming a continuation up to a target at R2 at 1.4047. A continued bullish outlook is supported by the intact medium-term up-trend and the break above the major 2008 trend-line.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/EURUSD08.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: support slowing down-trend

 

USD/JPY continued lower, reaching new lows of 101.42, however, it bounced back afterwards, during yesterday's trading. Now it is trading at a general level where there is much support from previous swing lows – starting with 101.74 in Jan, 101.19 in March, 101.20 again in March and 101.32 in April. In this context the 101.42 lows could fit the pattern so far.

 

There is also an 8-day cycle linking those lows, which 101.42 also falls into. Such a cycle indicates the possibility of a recovery lasting several days, perhaps back up to the 102.70 level. Such a move would gain confirmation from a move above 102.00.

 

Alternatively the Elliot waves indicate wave 5 has probably not quite finished. This may mean a move back down soon, perhaps to 101.30 or lower. In any case a break below the 101.40 could help confirm a move all the way down to solid support at 101.00, where wave 5 might end.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/USDJPY08.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: bearish key reversal day

 

EUR/USD sold off heavily after Draghi's comments yesterday and traders must be asking themselves whether or not a long-term top is in place. Signs are mixed and it is still a little too early to say: the move below 1.3843 was a bearish sign as it represented a 2.5 x daily ATR fall, but on the other hand the 50-day MA has yet to be breached. Yesterday sported a long key reversal which is a strong bearish sign too.

 

The 2008 major trend-line provides the next downside target at 1.3800 - if the 50-MA gives way. however, I still see the possibility of a small bounce from the MA - perhaps up to 1.3875 - before a possible roll-over. Such a bounce would gain confirmation if prices moved above 1.3843.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/EURUSD09b.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: sell-off continuing

 

Cable continues to sell off despite data released this morning being mixed and not bad. The pair has broken below a short-term trend-line and based on this break is expected to move down to 1.6820. Another target level is resistance-turned-support at 1.6840.

 

The strong medium-term up-trend remains intact and after the sell-off finishes there is a possibility of a recovery taking place, and a continuation higher, although the current concerted down-trend is likely to extend in the meantime.

 

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/GBPUSD09.bmp

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: short-term up-trend in doubt

 

EUR/USD made new highs before selling and forming a bearish key reversal bar on the weekly and lower charts. It moved below the ATR multiplied by two and a half on the daily chart, signalling a possible change of turned.

 

The very short term trend is in doubt: the sell off has formed 3 down-waves on the 4-hr chart. A rebound higher is still possible, nevertheless, with helpful confirmation coming from a break above the 1.3775 level. Although tough resistance lies at 1.3790, followed by 1.3815 give little scope for gain.

 

Alternatively a move back below the 1.3744's would provide more conclusive evidence that the trend had changed to bearish since it would create two lower lows and lower highs, although tough support from the 2012 trend-line and the S1 monthly pivot both together at 1.3725 could slow progress.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/EURUSD12.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: at start of possible up-cycle

 

USD/JPY is probably at the start of an 8-day cycle which has marked lows since February. If so it will start rising for a half-cycle length of on average 4-days, indicating more upside this week. The recovery would gain confirmation from a move above the 102.05 highs, targeting 102.50 at first, calculated from the width of the consolidation.

 

The 'Elliot wave' type formation from the April 3 highs has probably ended supporting a bullish outlook; however, if it hasn't, then an extension down is possible. There is a lot of support between 101.20-40, but a break below 101.40 would help confirm a move down to 101.00, where 'wave 5' might end.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/USDJPY12.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: working down to the 100-day

 

EUR/USD continues consolidating just above the 100-day MA. It has just spiked lower in the last hour reaching 1.3739. The very short-term trend has now probably changed to 'down' and lower prices are likely, however, tough support from both the S1 monthly pivot and the 2012 trend-line at about 1.3725 stand in the way of easy gains right now.

 

A clearance of these levels, however, by moving below 1.3700 - 05, could see prices drop all the way down to the 200-day MA at 1.3615.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/EURUSD13.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: a-b-c correction completing

 

Cable has pulled-back within a strong up-trend. It has paused at a major support area which used to be the upper border-line of an ascending triangle. The correction is composed of 3 distinct waves, forming what is possibly an A-B-C correction. The short-term up-trend remains intact and part of a strong medium-term bullish trend. Therefore it is possible that the up-trend could be at the point of resuming and moving back up. For confirmation, I would want to see a move above the 1.6885 peak highs, followed by a break above 1.6905, and an eventual target at resistance at 1.6985.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/GBPUSD13.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: very short-term trend now bearish

 

The very short-term down-trend is extending. The exchange rate broke down below critical support from both the S1 monthly pivot, the 100-day MA and trend-line at 1.3725. It further breached the psychologically significant 1.3700 level: more downside is now expected.

 

The current recovery bounce has found resistance at the S1 monthly pivot at 1.3723, and it could roll-over and continue the sell-off. A re-break below the 1.3688 lows would probably lead to a continuation down to the next major target at the 200-day MA, at 1.3615.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/EURUSD14.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: small down-cycle beginning

 

The USD/JPY has risen over the last few days in line with the 8-day cycle it has been in since February. Today it has started falling, however, after the cycle peaked and started to move lower. |

 

There is now a possibility of a deeper penetration to the down-side, with a move gaining confirmation from a break below the key 101.45 lows. This would also signal a possible break below the lower border-line of the larger consolidation/broadening formation, which now may be complete given it is composed of 5 waves. The next down-side target would probably come from a combination of the 200-day MA and the S1 monthly pivot both situated at 101.00.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/USDJPY14.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: bearish continuation

 

The EUR/USD pair is in a very short-term down-trend and is expected to continue moving lower. It has now broken down below a significant trend-line drawn from the 2012 lows and this morning it breached the 1.3688 former lows, adding bearish confirmation. This has signaled a probable further leg lower, with the next target at the 200-day MA at 1.3615.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/EURUSD15.gif

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: 50-day MA providing support

 

Cable has continued selling off, forming two lower lows and two lower highs on the 4-hour chart. It has broken down below several important support and trend-lines and is now probably in a very short-term down-trend, which is expected to extend lower.

 

The 50-day MA, however, is currently providing support just below price action at 1.6725, and I would be looking for a decisive break of an at least 20-pip margin – so below 1.6705 – for confirmation of more downside, and a target at 1.6650 where the S1 monthly pivot lies.

 

A bounce would probably be capped by tough resistance at 1.6785.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/GBPUSD15b.gif

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: hammer candle warns of bounce

 

The EUR/USD pair continues falling in a very short-term down-trend. Yesterday it formed a bullish long-wick hammer candlestick on the daily chart and bounced higher, eventually reaching resistance from the S1 monthly pivot at 1.3725.

 

On the hourly chart it looks as if a small inverted H&S has formed with a neckline at 1.3725. A decisive break above, including a 20-pip margin, could see the pair move up to a target at 1.3815, which is also equal to a Fibonacci 50% retrace of the previous move.

 

The very short-term down-trend, however, remains dominant and so a resumption lower is expected eventually, with a break below the 1.3648 lows, providing confirmation, and first targeting 1.3620 where the 200-day MA is situated, and likely to provide substantial support.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/EURUSD16.gif

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: breaking out of broadening formation

 

The short-term down-trend continues. The rate may now have broken below the lower borderline of the broadening formation which has been unfolding since January. This could be a sign of a stronger down-trend evolving, although down-side will probably be capped at first, at 101.05 where strong support from a combination of the 200-day MA and the S1 monthly pivot is situated. A move below the 101.30 lows would provide additional downside confirmation.

 

The break-out from the price pattern - though still tentative - is a very bearish sign, and could see prices fall all the way down to 99.15 eventually, which is the target calculated from extrapolating the width of the price pattern lower. This would make sense in light of signs that the Japanese economy is successfully riding out the impact of the recent sales tax hike, which many feared would cause a slow-down.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/USDJPY16.gif

Edited May 16, 2014 by joaquinmonfort

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: inverted H&S pattern foming

 

The EUR/USD has bounced higher after forming a bullish candlestick on the daily chart. It has risen up to resistance from the S1 monthly pivot at 1.3725.

 

A small inverted H&S pattern has formed with a neckline at 1.3725. If the exchange rate breaks above it – including a 20 pip margin for confirmation – the pair would then probably rally higher to the pattern's target at 1.3815, which also happens to be the 50% Fib retrace of the previous move.

 

Overall the short-term down-trend remains intact, however, and is expected to resume. A break below the 1.3648 lows would provide confirmation and target 1.3620 where the 200-day MA is situated, and likely to provide substantial support.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/EURUSD19.png

Edited May 19, 2014 by joaquinmonfort

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: a-b-c correction forming

 

Cable has bounced higher after reaching support from a major trend-line and the 50-day MA. It has formed a 3-wave pattern which could be an a-b-c correction.

 

The pair is in a very short-term down-trend now and will probably continue lower. A decisive break below the 1.6730 lows - including 20-pip margin – would provide helpful confirmation. The next target would be at 1.6650 where the S1 monthly pivot lies.

 

The medium-term trend remains up, however, and owing to the strong support a resumption higher is possible. A break above the 1.6840 correction highs would indicate a resumption and target resistance at 1.7000.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/GBPUSD19.png

[joaquinmonfort]

AUD/USD: up-trend resuming

 

The aussie has resumed its short-term up-trend and managed to break back inside the broader rising channel which has been enveloping price action ever since January.

 

It recently completed an a-b-c correction visible on the 4-hr chart and then started to resume its up-trend. The resumption appears to have petered out now and it is struggling to continue the short-term trend higher.

 

A break above 0.9385 would help provide confirmation of a continuation higher. Further confirmation would come from a break above the 0.9394 highs. The next upside target lies at the level of the R1 monthly pivot at 0.9430.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/AUDUSD19.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: bullish inverted H&S cancelled

 

The inverted head and shoulders pattern, which was forming at the lows, has been cancelled out by bearish price action after the exchange rate moved lower, breaking below the line connecting the head and the right shoulder.

 

The very short-term down-trend remains dominant and will probably extend. The inverted H&S could simply be an a-b-c correction of the down-trend. A break below the right-shoulder lows at 1.3684 would provide confirmation of more downside, leading to a move lower to the 200-day which is likely to provide support at 1.3623.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/EURUSD20.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: 200-day MA supporting; bounce expected

 

The very short-term down-trend has continued unwinding although it has just reached tough support from the 200-day MA; we are also at the trough low of an 8-day cycle, and yesterday formed a bullish hammer candlestick. All the evidence is pointing to a short-term upside bounce developing, with the target at resistance at 102.00, and extra confirmation coming from a move above 101.66.

 

After that the bearish trend will probably resume, however, since the exchange rate recently broke out of a large broadening formation which has been forming since January. This is a very bearish indication, generating an eventual downside target at 99.15. I would want to see a decisive break below the S1 pivot at 101.00, with a 20-pip margin, for a downside cue, targeting the psychologically important 100.00 level thereafter.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/USDJPY20.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: consolidation in short-term down-trend

 

EUR/USD continues to consolidate at present levels. The very short-term trend remains bearish and is expected to continue. A breakout below the 1.3677 lows would help provide a bearish signal lower. This would probably lead to a further move down to a target at the 200-day MA at 1.3623.

 

The top of the range is capped by a lot of strong resistance, including the S1 monthly pivot, the

100-day MA and the trend-line from the July 2012 lows. Any breakout above the highs would have to drill through all that. A move above 1.3750 could act as confirmation of a possible bullish recovery targeting 1.3800.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/EURUSD21.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: short-term down-trend extending

 

The EUR/USD pair continues to sell-off, extending its very short-term down-trend lower. It is expected to continue falling in the absence of any reversal signs. It has already broken down below the 1.3677 lows and fallen to just above the target at the 200-day MA at 1.3623.

 

There are other bearish signs too, including a break below the 2012 trend-line and the down-sloping long-term trend-line from the 2008 highs. For a continuation down I would want to see a clear break below the 200-day, perhaps with a 20-pip margin for confirmation. The problem then is that the next target is not far below at 1.3580, where the S2 monthly pivot lies, leaving little scope for gains.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/EURUSD22.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: a-b-c correction in down-trend

 

USD/JPY has broken down and out of a large broadening formation which it had been in since January. It has continued falling to the S1 pivot at 101.00 where it bounced and has formed a 3-wave a-b-c corrective pattern, visible on the 4-hour price chart. It will probably now resume its fall since the the very short-term trend remains down and likely to extend.

 

A decisive break below the S1 pivot, with a 20-pip margin, would help confirm such a move with a target at the psychologically important 100.00 level.

 

Alternatively, cycle analysis as well as a the hammer which formed yesterday, indicates the possibility of upside, with a move above the 101.72 highs possibly targeting resistance from the 50-day at 102.20.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/USDJPY221.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: meeting 200-day MA

 

There is little change in the analysis from yesterday: the pair continues to sell-off, extending its decline from the 8th May highs. It has entered a little bit of a consolidation phase over the last few days but the very short-term trend remains bearish and likely to persist.

 

On higher time-frames there are other bearish signs too, including the break below both the 2012 trend-line and the down-sloping major trend-line from the 2008 highs. For a continuation lower I would want to see a clear break below the 200-day, with a 20-pip margin, at 1.3605 for confirmation. The next target below, would be at 1.3580, where the S2 monthly pivot lies, leaving little scope for gains, however.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/EURUSD23b.png