Technical signals from Forex4you

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: gap turns more bearish

 

EUR/USD gaped down this morning after ECB President Mario Draghi indicated the ECB was seriously considering using QE at a meeting of the IMF in Washington over the weekend. Price has now broken even lower, breaking the sequence of rising peaks and troughs and reversing the very short-term trend from up to down. The pair has now reached support from the monthly pivot at 1.3814 and the major 2008 trend-line. It will probably pause to consolidate or bounce, however, the newborn down-trend is expected to continue afterwards, with a break below 1.3785 confirming a break below the 2008 trend-line, and targeting the 50-day MA at 1.3750.

 

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/EURUSD14b.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: consolidating at base of pattern

 

The USD/JPY pair has bottomed at a significant support level. It is now at the base of a large broadening formation which began at the beginning of February. The pattern consists of 5-waves and could now be complete. The overall short-term trend is down and is expected to extend. First it will probably reach the 101.31 lows. A break below there would provide confirmation of a move lower, which would probably reach the 200-day MA at 100.75. In the meantime there is a chance of a bounce up to a target at 102.15, where old highs provide a resistance level, however, the down-trend would be expected to resume from there afterwards.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/USDJPY14.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: close to key 50% retrace zone

 

Although Draghi's comments yesterday triggered a sell-off, he made it clear that ECB would only take action if the euro went higher. The weekly chart still looks very bullish with that long engulfing candle last week, and it is above the 2008 major trend-line. On the daily chart too, yesterday's gap-down looks more like a pull-back rather than a reversal. There is a possibility the EUR/USD will start to turn around, particularly with Janet Yellen speaking later today and her propensity for doveish messages.

 

The 50% fib retrace level at 1.3788 is one possible support level where it may rotate, although I would want to see a break above the 1.3833 highs for confirmation (targeting gap highs at 1.3880). The very short-term trend is still down technically speaking, however, and so expected to extend, with a break below 1.3779 probably ushering in a move down to the 50-day MA at 1.3760 followed by capitulation to 1.3660.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/EURUSD15.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: bearish signs; awaiting cue

 

The long rally up from mid-2013 looks like it could be dying out. On the weekly chart MACD has moved below its signal line indicating a possible start of a wave down. The recent failure high on the 10th April is also a bearish sign. The very short-term trend is in doubt however – could be up; could be down - so price action is withholding its cue. This morning there was a sharp sell-off down to 1.6657, but afterwards there was a recovery which formed a very long-tail hammer. Once again short-term action was ambivalent. A break below 1.6670 would signal a possible resumption of the short-term bearish trend to 1.6620, and possibly a broader sell-off, in line with the aforesaid signs.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/GBPUSD15.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: rotating: may fill gap

 

The very short-term trend has probably reversed after the progression of peaks and troughs down on the 4-hour chart changed to up. The exchange rate has also come off the bottom of a broadening range/pattern which has been forming since February. Currently the very short-term up-trend is expected to continue, particularly given the strong leg up on Tuesday and Wednesday. The 50-day MA at 102.40 provides and initial target, followed by the 50% Fibonacci retrace level of the previous move down at 102.70. The overall broadening consolidation is probably close to completing, and will probably eventually break to the downside.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/EURUSD17b.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: short-term bounce extending

 

The very short-term trend has probably reversed after the progression of peaks and troughs down on the 4-hour chart changed to up. The exchange rate has also come off the bottom of a broadening range/pattern which has been forming since February. Currently the very short-term up-trend is expected to continue, particularly given the strong leg up on Tuesday and Wednesday. The 50-day MA at 102.40 provides and initial target, followed by the 50% Fibonacci retrace level of the previous move down at 102.70. The overall broadening consolidation is probably close to completing, and will probably eventually break to the downside.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/USDJPY17.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: 2008 trend-line supporting

 

The EUR/USD has fallen back down to the trend-line drawn from the 2008 highs after briefly flirting with filling last week's gap. The very short-term trend is still down but price has reached support from the 50% retrace level, the 50-day MA and the trend-line, and it has formed a large bullish hammer-like candle on the 4hr chart. This could represent a resumption of the medium-term up-trend. This level is critical and if the 1.3783 lows are broken a strong move down could follow to 1.3715. Alternatively a move higher is possible, with a break above the 1.3830 highs provided added confirmation and targeting 1.3880, to finally close the gap.

 

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/EURUSD22.png

Edited April 22, 2014 by joaquinmonfort

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: up-trend resuming

 

Cable has recovered and moved back inside its rising channel. The short-term trend is up again following the break above the 1.6819 highs, and is expected to continue rising higher, despite signs on higher time-frames the up-trend might be over-extended. We have also had a clear re-break above the 1.6810 R1 monthly pivot, further supporting the bullish outlook, and a break above 1.6840 would add conformation of more upside, targeting resistance at 1.6915.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/GBPUSD22.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: very short-term down-trend intact

 

The EUR/USD pair rose up this morning but then capitulated, resuming its dominant short-term down-trend. Progression lower is likely to continue. A break below 1.3800 could be a sign of a more weakness, however, downside is capped at the 50-day MA at 1.3788, which have provided support in the past and will probably again in the future. The 2008 trend-line nearby also provides support. Therefore a clearance of those levels – perhaps by pushing below 1.3770 - would be required before expectations could turn more bearish. Once broken, momentum lower could be strong, since there is little support in between, and price could eventually target the 1.3670 lows.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/EURUSD23.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: pulling-back from 50% fibonacci

 

Short-term USD/JPY continues trading within this sideways broadening pattern. However, the break above the 102.35 highs changed the bias on the 4-hour chart to bullish. Since then it has continued rising until it recently touched the 50% retrace level at 102.72. After that there was some weakness and the pair is consolidating now. It is expected to continue higher and a re-break above the 102.72 highs would probably lead to a continuation higher to 103.05 where the 61.8% fib line is and then resistance at 103.30. The medium-term bullish trend supports this outlook.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/USDJPY23.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: consolidating in short-term down-trend

 

Despite a bullish medium-term outlook the very short-term trend on the 4-hour chart remains bearish for EUR/USD. After some volatile activity yesterday the pair remains trading above the 50 day-MA. A move lower could see price action slide down to this moving average at 1.3792, where it would be expected to encounter substantial support, given it has so in the past and may well do so again in the future. A further move down to 1.3760 where the 2008 trend-line is situated is also possible. A break below 1.3810 could provide confirmation of such a move. Alternatively a break above 1.3783 would be key in reasserting the up-trend, probably closing the open gap at 1.3880.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/EURUSD24b.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: trend-line supporting; up-trend dominant

 

The very short-term trend on the 4-hour chart remains bullish, despite the recent pull-back to the trend-line at 1.6760. The trend-line could provide the necessary support for the start of a new wave sequence higher. However, the R1 monthly pivot at 1.6810, stands in the way of further upside. A clearance above the pivot would ideally be required to provide confirmation of a continuation higher, with a break above 1.6830, or perhaps the 1.6840 highs. Such a move might lead to a move all the way up to 1.6925. The*bullish medium term outlook further supports this analysis.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/GBPUSD24.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: range-bound

 

EUR/USD has spent a week essentially trading sideways between 1.3780 and 1.3850. Notwithstanding Michigan Sentiment there are no major releases today, so volatility is expected to continue to be low. The Chaikin Money Flow indicator warns of the direction of range breakouts. It has fallen slightly in line with price, signalling a possible eventual down-side break.

 

The very short-term trend has a downside bias which is expected to continue. A move below 1.3820 could provide confirmation, with a downside target at the 50-day MA at 1.3795. A break below that would be very bearish targeting support from the 2008 trend-line at 1.3765.

 

Alternatively, a move above the 1.3863 highs would signal a reversal higher. In this scenario the range could be interpreted as an inverted H&S. This would also fall more comfortably in line with the medium-term up-trend, and the fact the 22nd April lows are a 50% fib correction of the previous rally.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/EURUSD25.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: 5th wave falling

 

USD/JPY touched the 50% fib line and rolled over. The very short-term trend has changed from up to down, with two lower lows and two lower highs now visible on the 4-hour chart, and a reversal equal to 2.5 x the ATR. A break below the 102.08 lows could provide confirmation of another leg down. The S1 monthly pivot at 101.69 is likely to provide the first target.

 

The fall from the 4th April highs followed by the subsequent bounce off the 101.30 lows, and the recover up to the 50% Fibonacci retrace, could all describe an Elliot wave, with the current move down wave 5; this would indicate a probable end of wave 5 at the level of the 101.30 lows.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/USDJPY25.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: reversing after spike higher

 

The EUR/USD pair has spiked higher this morning after an improvement in the economic outlook for the region. It has reversed the very short term down-trend which began after prices rolled over at the April 10th peak. It will probably continue higher – first closing the gap at 1.3880, and then up to a target at 1.3932 calculated from the height of the inverted H&S. A re-break above the 1.3875 spike highs would help provide added confirmation. Any pull-backs would be expected to find support at 1.3855.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/EURUSD28.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: breaking out of ascending triangle

 

Cable continues rising; it has broken above key resistance at 1.6815 and moved higher. Next it will probably reach resistance at 1.6930 at first, followed by 1.7015. The pair is breaking out of an ascending – otherwise known as right-angled triangle – on the 4hr chart, and this has generated the 1.7015 target. A re-break above the 1.6854 highs would provide confirmation of more upside.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/GBPUSD28.png

[joaquinmonfort]

AUD/USD: down-trend resuming; channel base

 

The pair may have finished its correction after forming an A-B-C pattern and then breaking to the downside today. This could mark a resumption of the very short-term down-trend. A break below 0.9270 would provide conformation of a continuation lower, however, support from the lower channel line of the rising channel would provide support only 10-pips lower at 0.9260, and the down move at that point is likely to pause to consolidate, if not even start a full-blown recovery.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/AUDUSD28.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: pulling-back in very short-term up-trend

 

The EUR/USD pair has risen up and closed the gap at 1.3880. It is now in a very short-term up-trend which is likely to extend. The next target higher lies at 1.3925 where the R1 monthly pivot lies, followed by 1.3932, the target calculated from the height of the inverted H&S. A re-break above the 1.3888 recent highs would help provide confirmation of more upside. The current pull-back will probably find support at the level where it is at the moment, of 1.3855.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/EURUSD29.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: unexpected recovery

 

The USD/JPY has surprisingly rallied despite bearish signs in the very short-term. It has now risen back up to almost reach the 102.72 highs, correcting the whole of the previous move down. The correction is composed of three waves on the 4hr chart, according to my count, which is not yet enough to mark a reversal, however the strength of the move brings the down-trend into doubt.

 

The bigger picture shows the pair in a sideways broadening formation, which is unusually situated in the middle of a down-move, within a larger medium-term up-trend. Given a reversal has not yet happened, a resumption of the very short-term trend is still possible - with a break below the lows of the triangle at 102.30 would confirm such a move. The first down-side target is situated at 101.70 where the S1 monthly pivot is situated.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/USDJPY29.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: upside bias remains

 

EUR/USD came back down and re-touched support from both the 50-day MA and the major trend-line drawn from the 2008 highs on Wednesday. It was successfully contained and recovered afterwards, moving up swiftly to make a new high. Overall there remains a bullish feel to the chart in the short-term which I expect to carry on. A break above the 1.3888 highs would probably provide confirmation of an extension higher, targeting resistance from the R1 monthly pivot at 1.3956.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/EURUSD02.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: range-bound, bearish bias

 

I'm still marginally bearish USD/JPY. There was a move lower, which I thought was the 5th wave of an Elliot wave which began at the 3rd April highs. This however turned out not to be the case after it reversed and started going up again, making new highs. The exchange rate then subsequently weakened again moving back down to an old-trend-line which has been providing support since the formation of a large triangle in autumn 2013 (of which it formed the lower border). The bounce higher which is currently unfolding on the 4hr chart, extends the sideways environment.

 

The Chaikin Money Flow indicator is diverging with price and showing marginal weakness within this range bound market. Wave 5 may yet be unfolding, if we get a break below 102.02, which would provide bearish confirmation, with a target down at 101.30 lows.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/USDJPY02.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: range-bound; upside bias

 

The EUR/USD pair continues consolidating in a range above the 2008 trend-line. It is currently at the range highs and so there is a possibility that it might rotate and move back down inside the range. Currently there are no other signs of weakness and RSI is not in the overbought zone so the case remains weak.

 

Given the overall trend has been up for the past year, that trend will probably continue once the pair breaks out of the range. The Chaikin Money Flow Index, which is useful for predicting the direction of breakouts, is showing underlying strength, further indicating a probable breakout to the upside. A move above the 1.3906 highs would provide added confirmation, and target the R1 monthly pivot at 1.3956 initially, followed by 1.4000.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/EURUSD05.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: breaking out of triangle

 

The pair continues rising, most recently breaking to the upside after forming an ascending triangle. It has still not reached the upside target generated from the triangle at 1.7015, and pulled back down to the top of the triangle, however, it has recovered now and probably will meet the target eventually. A move above the recent 1.6918 highs would provide confirmation, and the R1 monthly pivot at 1.6998 the first target higher.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/GBPUSD05.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: brotando fuera del rango

 

The EUR/USD pair is currently breaking out above the range it formed on the 4hr chart, and it has now moved above the 1.3906 highs confirming a break higher. The move falls in line with the dominant medium-term up-trend. The next target for the pair is the R1 monthly pivot at 1.3956, followed by 1.4000, calculated from the width of the range.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/EURUSD06.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: falling in volatile steps

 

USD/JPY is moving lower in volatile steps. It spiked higher temporarily on Friday but then capitulated. As I have said before I am still bearish overall and I think this is a Elliot 5th wave of the wave sequence which began at the April 3 highs.

 

Crucially we have now had a breach beneath the trend-line which was supporting price and originally formed the lower border of the triangle in autumn 2013. A further break below 102.02 also provided bearish confirmation. Fresh confirmation would come from a breach of the 101.86 trough lows – if required; with a fresh downside target at the 101.30 lows, from the lower border of the broadening formation wrapping price since February.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/USDJPY061.png