Technical signals from Forex4you

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: correcting in short-term down-trend

 

The EUR/USD pair looked like it was forming a bearish flag yesterday but in the end it spiked higher instead. The spike pushed the exchange rate above the major trend-line from 2008, however it remained below its ascending channel and on balance the short-term trend is still likely to extend, with a break below the 1.3747 lows confirming a push down to the monthly pivot at 1.3700, followed by an eventual target at the major mid-term trend-line at 1.3650. A break above the 1.3875 highs would reverse the short-term trend and target 1.3923 instead.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/EURUSD25-e1395744337450.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: consolidating in a range

 

The USD/JPY bounced off the 101.20 lows and recovered, triggering a double bottom in the process. It has rallied up to highs of 102.67. Despite a bearish bias persisting from the previous down-move, the short term trend overall is sideways, with prices moving within an expanding range, and a break above the 102.67 highs signalling a potential trend reversal and move up to a target at the range highs at 103.35. Alternatively a move below the 102.00 lows would see the move down resume, taking the exchange rate to the 101.20 lows, possibly slightly lower.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/USDJPY25-e1395752177227.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: moving sideways

 

EUR/USD is moving sideways along a major trend-line which it temporarily broke below yesterday but then retracted back above. It didn't quite breach the key 1.3747 lows, confirming more downside to 1.3700 where the monthly pivot is situated, instead moving back into the range. There is a strong possibility the consolidation will continue unfolding; however, a break above the 1.3875 highs, would technically reverse the very short-term down-trend and indicate a resumption of the broader up-trend targeting 1.3923.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/EURUSD26-e1395827379598.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: correction probably completing

 

Cable has recovered after hitting lows at 1.6464. It has now reached a critical level where it has completed an A-B-C correction on the 4-hour chart. There is a possibility that it may begin to fall from this level, resuming its down-trend towards the previous 1.6464 lows, followed by the next target lower at 1.6369. The pair has also reached resistance from the 50-day MA at 1.6565, and backed into the trend-line from the bearish channel, further increasing the likelihood of a resumption down; with a break below 1.6508 supplying confirmation.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/GBPUSD26-e1395834825342.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: rangebound; trend-line supporting

 

The EUR/USD pair remains range-bound. It has fallen to the lows of the range in the 1.3740s, finding support there from a major trend-line drawn from the July 2012 lows. The support appears to be holding currently and there is a possibility of a bounce. The primary short-term down-trend remains intact and likely to extend. A decisive break below the 1.3747 lows would probably confirm a continuation to the next target at the 50-day MA and the monthly pivot situated at 1.3710 and 1.3700 respectively. A move back up within the range would probably reach 1.3820 initially, where it would encounter resistance from the underside of the major trend-line drawn from the 2008 highs.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/EURUSD27.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: rangebound; downside bias

 

USD/JPY is in a range with a downside bias. The range highs are roughly at 103.00, and the lows at 101.09; there is a slight expanding quality to the consolidation. Moves either higher or lower are possible, but the aforesaid bias to the downside means a move down to the range lows is a slightly more likely possibility. The monthly pivot at 101.80 bars the way, however, and a breach of the 101.71 hammer lows would be necessary for confirmation of a break down. Alternatively a move above the 102.67 highs would signal a reversal of the very short-term trend and target range highs at 103.35.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/USDJPY27-e1395916797830.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: down-trend resuming

 

EUR/USD has broken down below a trend-line drawn from the 2012 lows, breached the 50-day MA and has fallen steeply to support from the monthly pivot situated at 1.3610, where it has made a new low. Whilst a bounce is possible the short-term down-trend is expected to extend. A break below 1.3690 would provide confirmation of an extension lower; then support at 1.3660 and 1.3640 would be targeted, although 1.3580 is a significant crossroads and prime target, composed as it is of a major trend-line and the S1 monthly pivot.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/EURUSD28-e1395997059196.png

Edited March 28, 2014 by joaquinmonfort

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: breaking back above trend-line

 

GBP/USD has risen back up above the trend-line it recently broke below. The very-short-term trend has reversed and is now bullish after the move above the key 1.6549 level. It is currently consolidating in what appears to be a small triangle. A break above 1.6645 would lead to a move higher towards 1.6725 - if not the old highs at 1.6820. The medium trend continues to be bullish as well, adding further support to the recovery, which is expected to extend.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/GBPUSD28-e1396003593691.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: pulling-back in down-trend

 

The EUR/USD pair is in a short-term down-trend which is likely to extend, although it is currently pulling back in a small correction which will probably reach up to 1.3780-90. After that, however, the dominant down-trend is likely to resume. Once the down-trend resumes the 1.3665 level where the 100-day MA is situated gives a potential target lower. March is forming a bearish shooting star pattern on the monthly chart,with the wick intersecting with resistance from the major trend-line drawn from the 2008 highs, and this could be bearish for April. Monthly pivots will recalculate tomorrow; the CPI release today and ECB meeting on Thursday could produce volatility.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/EURUSD31-e1396257863886.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: near range highs; pattern completing

 

The USD/JPY is rising up within its range. There is an widening quality to the consolidation which makes it look a little bit like an expanding pattern. The current move up could go slightly higher, reaching up to the top of the range at 103.35. Owing to the fact that this is the pattern's 5th leg, it may be the last leg before a breakout occurs. Given the broader trend remains bullish, there is a possibility that once the range highs are reached there could be a breakout even higher, with a clearance of 103.55 providing confirmation, targeting 103.80 initially, possibly even the 105 highs.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/USDJPY31-e1396264574784.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: correcting in down-trend

 

The EUR/USD pair is in a short-term down-trend which is likely to extend, although it is currently pulling back in a small correction which will probably reach up to 1.3780-90. After that, however, the dominant down-trend is likely to resume. Once the down-trend resumes the 1.3665 level where the 100-day MA is situated gives a potential target lower. March is forming a bearish shooting star pattern on the monthly chart,with the wick intersecting with resistance from the major trend-line drawn from the 2008 highs, and this could be bearish for April. Monthly pivots will recalculate tomorrow; the CPI release today and ECB meeting on Thursday could produce volatility.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/EURUSD02-e1396340661554.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: pull-back possibly completing

 

Cable is in a short-term up-trend, putting in higher highs and higher lows. Recently it broke back above the trend-line drawn from the July 2013 lows. It will probably extend higher to the next target at 1.6725, or perhaps eventually even to 1.6810 at the R1 monthly pivot, where it will meet resistance. The current pull-back which began on March the 31st could be a small A-B-C pattern. It is possible the new up-trend could begin from the current level, or for a more conservative entry point, a re-break above the 1.6683 highs could provide necessary confirmation.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/GBPUSD02-e1396346920939.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: down-trend expected to resume

 

The pair has pulled back into resistance from the monthly pivot at 1.3815, and this is a highly probable point from which the short-term down-trend might resume. The next target down is the 50-day MM at 1.3723, followed by the S1 monthly pivot and the 100-day MM situated both together at 1.3665. There may be strong moves tomorrow after the ECB rate meeting. A break below 1.3780, or form more security 1.3761 would help provide confirmation of the resumption lower.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/EURUSD2c-e1396433008777.png

Edited April 2, 2014 by joaquinmonfort

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: pulling-back in up-trend

 

The USD/JPY pair has become overextended and is currently pulling-back, however, the short-term up-trend remains intact and likely to resume. If the pull-back continues lower it could reach the next support level at the 103.45 highs. From there – or sooner - it is likely to start to recover and return to the 103.95 highs, before surpassing them and climbing up to the next major level of resistance at 104.25. The correction has completed an A-B-C on the hourly chart, but price action is still not sufficiently bullish to indicate a probable start of a recovery yet.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/USDJPY02-e1396443229523.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: down-trend extending

 

The short-term down-trend has resumed and has fallen below both the 1.3780 and 1.3761 levels, helping to confirm bearish follow-through. There is now a possibility it will fall to the next target to the downside at the 50-day MA, at 1.3723, followed by 1.3675, where a combination of the 100-day MA and the S1 monthly pivot are situated. Currently the exchange rate is consolidating, but a re-break of the 1.3752 lows would provide confirmation of the next impetus down. Today's ECB meeting is likely to cause volatility.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/EURUSD03-e1396507100181.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: finding support; bullish resumption?

 

Cable's pull-back from the 31st March highs has deepened and extended. It has fallen to 1.6601 now where it has met support from the 50-day MM and the monthly pivot, and there is a strong possibility of a recovery taking shape from this level. The short-term up-trend is dominant and likely to continue further increasing the possibility of a resumption higher. The next target up is at the top of the descending channel at 1.6645. The previous 1.6682 highs provides another target higher, and is also at the underside of a rising trend-line, drawn from the July 2013 lows.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/GBPUSD03-e1396519587505.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: short-term down-trend extending

 

March formed a bearish shooting star candlestick on the monthly chart and so far April has confirmed. Yesterday and today the short-term down-trend has driven lower. It will probably continue down to 1.3660, where the S1 monthly pivot is situated. At that level it will probably pause to consolidate. A break below 1.3690 would help to confirm. Further downside would lead to the key major medium-term trend-line situated at 1.3630.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/EURUSD04-e1396602495738.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: pulling-back in up-trend

 

The USD/JPY pair continues rising in a short-term up-trend. There is the possibility of a move up to 104.25 where the R1 monthly pivot is situated. It has pulled back a little today, but the up-trend is likely to resume. The pair formed a bearish-looking shooting star candlestick on the daily chart yesterday, which could be a sign a correction may be starting. The medium-term trend is still firmly bullish and so a higher exchange rate is favoured. A clearance above R1 – above 104.45 for confirmation – would probably lead to a move up to the former highs at 105.43.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/USDJPY04-e1396608717541.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: trending down to support

 

The short-term down-trend is extending, making lower lows and lower highs. It has reached several layers of support, however, which will probably slow it down. There is support from the 100-day MA at 1.3670, and then from the S1 monthly pivot at 1.3660. After that there is the key medium-term trend-line at 1.3630 not far below, which it will probably reach. The current pull-back will probably at most reach as high as 1.3735, where the 50-day MA is situated, before resuming its down-trend. A break below the 1.3642 'neckline' lows would also be bearish. The mid-term trend is up, but there are bearish signs on the monthly chart.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/EURUSD071.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: meeting resistance from upper-trend-line

 

EUR/USD broke back above the 50-day MA and continues rising. It has now reached the upper channel line of the down-sloping channel on the 4-hour chart just above the current price at 1.3770. At the very least one would expect price to stop and consolidate at that level or perhaps even resume the dominant, short-term down-trend. Assuming there is a rotation at this level then it would come down to 1.3720 to the 50-day, and then down to the S1 monthly pivot at 1.3660. A break below 1.3735 would help provide bearish confirmation.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/EURUSD08-e1396947702465.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: falling within broader up-trend

 

The USD/JPY pair is selling off within a volatile broadening pattern in a medium-term up-trend. There is a bearish shooting star on the weekly chart supporting an immediately bearish outlook. Prices have just reached and broken through the monthly pivot and 100-day MA at 102.75. Now they are approaching the 50-day MA at 102.35, where there is a possibility of a bounce or further consolidation. A break below 102.20 could indicate further downside to support at 101.60. Given the broadly dominant up-trend, however, there is a possibility of a resumption higher at any time. I would be looking for a break above 103.30 to confirm such a move to a target back up at 104.25.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/USDJPY08-e1396953804632.png

[joaquinmonfort]

GBP/USD: trend in doubt after strong bounce

 

The short-term trend is in doubt since the break above 1.6653. Although the move up consists of only 3 waves and could be an ABC correction, it so large and strong it looks more impulsive than corrective. It could be part of the resumption of the medium-term up-trend, although a pull-back followed by a higher high would be necessary to provide bullish confirmation. If that were the case a move up to the 1.6819 highs would be expected. A pull-back might target support at 1.6710. Alternatively, a move below the 1.6680 level could lead to a continuation lower to support clustered at 1.6630.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/GBPUSD09.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: back above 2008 trend-line

 

The EUR/USD pair has broken back above the major trend-line drawn from the 2008 highs, confirming the short-term up-trend. The next target higher could be at 1.3895, followed by the R1 pivot at 1.3925. A re-break above 1.3870 would provide confirmation. Any pull-backs would be expected to find support at the trend-line at 1.3833, followed by further support at 1.3815 from the monthly pivot. After that, however, the short-term up-trend would be expected to resume.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/EURUSD10.png

[joaquinmonfort]

USD/JPY: down-leg extends

 

The steep, short-term, down-trend within the broadening pattern continues. The pair has now broken down below key support from the S1 monthly pivot at 101.70, strengthening the bearish outlook. It will probably move lower, falling all the way down to 101.00 eventually, where the lower boundary of the expanding pattern is, with any further weakness likely to encounter support from the 200-day MA at 100.75. A break of the daily lows at 101.40 might provide sufficient confirmation.

 

http://blog.forex4you.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/USDJPY10.png

[joaquinmonfort]

EUR/USD: up-trend extending

 

EUR/USD continues rising after bullishly breaking above the 2008 trend-line. The short-term trend is intact and expected to extend. It has currently reached a short-term target at 1.3897, calculated after the recent breakout from the wedge, and it may pause at the current level, or pull back to the 1.3850-70 range. A break above the 1.3905 highs would confirm a resumption higher, first to the next target at the R1 monthly pivot at 1.3925, and then the 1.3966 monthly shooting star highs. A breach of these might create a strong short-covering rally.

 

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