Market Overview by FXCC

[freddy]

Another nice place to check correlation/anti-correlation table:

 

http://www.forexticket.co.uk/en/tools/01-01-correlation

[alayoua]

Daily Technical Levels from FXCC – 23Sep 2011

 

Daily Technical Levels from FXCC – 23Sep 2011

 

 

EUR/USD Intraday Technical Levels:

 

Pivot: 1.3575.

Preference: SHORT positions @ 1.3565 with targets@ 1.345 & 1.3385.

Alternative Scenario:The upside penetration of 1.3575will call for 1.363 & 1.37.

Comment:the pair stands below its resistance andremains under pressure.

 

USD/JPY Intraday Technical Levels:

 

Pivot: 76.55.

Preference: SHORT positions @ 76.5 with targets@ 76.1 & 75.95.

Alternative Scenario: The upside breakout of 76.55will open the way to 76.7 & 77.

Comment: the pair remains under pressure and is approachingits support

 

GBP/USD Intraday Technical Levels:

 

Pivot: 1.5450.

Preference: SHORT positions @ 1.544 with 1.5325& 1.5285 in sight.

Alternative Scenario: The upside breakout of 1.545will open the way to 1.552 & 1.5575.

Comment: the RSI is capped by a declining trend line,the pair stands below its resistance.

 

 

Daily Technical Levels from fxcc.com

Source: FX Central Clearing http://www.fxcc.com

[alayoua]

Making Sure You Muse on Forex News

 

Making Sure You Muse on Forex News

 

How economic literate are you? Some twenty years back as a bit of pre work ‘fun’, I set a small team of salesmen I was managing a pre work test. As with all our Wednesday sessions there was a prize at stake which always ensured a competitive edge to the quiz. The test had ten questions on the key economic issues of the day. One question that sticks in my mind was “what is the current interest rate?” At the time the rate was an eye watering 13-14% and despite most of us having mortgages only one or two of the eight knew the Bank of England’s base rate. It got worse, the result was that the ‘winner’ took the prize with four correct answers and the questions were not too taxing. Now what surprised me at the time was that both myself and my colleagues were selling multi unit office equipment deals, often with a large ‘ticket’ value, into the City of London. I’d expected (incorrectly) that all of us would be what I’d term “commercially aware”.

 

As a student of economics I’ve never lost my hunger for financial news, but I didn’t set the test at a high level, it was very basic. When walking into some of the major global financial institutions I believed that you had to have a brief understating of how they ‘worked’ even if only to strike up casual conversation away from the deal you’re there to (hopefully) take care of. For example, if selling equipment into a major bank today you should be able to comfortably hold your own in a discussion on where you believe the economy is headed.

 

As a consequence of my profession I have to be commercially aware, not just as a specialist forex trader, but also to offer FXCC a range of blog posts, articles and thoughts that will prove to be wide ranging, enjoyable and of worth to our clients. There’s little point in us regurgitating the same news published elsewhere, therefore we attempt to provide something slightly edgier and thought provoking, whilst still ensuring our customers eye is kept on the ball in relation to the key events and issues of the day.

 

http://blog.fxcc.com/making-sure-you-muse-on-forex-news/

 

 

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd. (FXCC – BLOG)

[alayoua]

Update - Daily Technical Levels from FXCC – 23 Sep 2011

 

Update - Daily Technical Levels from FXCC – 23 Sep 2011

 

EUR/USD Intraday Technical Levels:

 

Pivot: 1.3575

Preference: Short positions below 1.3575 with targets @ 1.3385 & 1.332 in extension.

Alternative Scenario: Above 1.3575 look for further upside with 1.363 & 1.37 as targets.

Comment: the pair is breaking below its support and should reach its previous low.

 

USD/JPY Intraday Technical Levels:

 

Pivot: 76.55

Preference: Short positions below 76.55 with targets @ 76.1 & 75.95 in extension.

Alternative Scenario: Above 76.55 look for further upside with 76.7 & 77 as targets.

Comment: the pair is under pressure and is approaching its support.

 

GBP/USD Intraday Technical Levels:

 

Pivot: 1.547

Preference: Short positions below 1.547 with targets @ 1.537 & 1.5325 in extension.

Alternative Scenario: Above 1.547 look for further upside with 1.552 & 1.5575 as targets.

Comment: the pair stands below its resistance and is shaping a bearish flag.

 

Daily Technical Levels from fxcc.com

Source: FX Central Clearing http://www.fxcc.com

[alayoua]

Daily Technical Levels from FXCC – 26 Sep 2011

 

Daily Technical Levels from FXCC – 26 Sep 2011

 

 

EUR/USD Intraday Technical Levels:

 

Pivot: 1.3475.

Preference: SHORT positions @ 1.3465 with 1.3385 & 1.332 in sight.

Alternative Scenario: The upside breakout of 1.3475 will open the way to 1.3575 & 1.363.

Comment: the pair remains under pressure and is approaching its previous low.

 

USD/JPY Intraday Technical Levels:

 

Pivot: 76.70.

Preference: SHORT positions @ 76.65 with 76.1 & 75.95 in sight.

Alternative Scenario: The upside breakout of 76.7 will open the way to 76.9 & 77.1.

Comment: the pair remains under pressure and is approaching its support.

 

GBP/USD Intraday Technical Levels:

 

Pivot: 1.5500.

Preference: SHORT positions @ 1.549 with 1.537 & 1.5325 in sight.

Alternative Scenario: The upside breakout of 1.55 will open the way to 1.5575 & 1.563.

Comment: the RSI is capped by a declining trend line, the pair stands below its resistance and should face a weakness.

 

 

Daily Technical Levels from fxcc.com

Source: FX Central Clearing http://www.fxcc.com

[alayoua]

Forex Market Roundup – September 26

 

Forex Market Roundup – September 26

 

So a nuclear physicist, a lawyer and a history student walk into a meeting..if you were expecting a joke, or an ending with a punchline, then I’m sorry to disappoint. The nuclear physicist is Ms. Merkel, the lawyer is Ms. Lagarde and the history student is one George Osborne and this trinity of (supposed) brilliant minds have very different ideas and agendas as to how to heal both Europe’s and the global financial community’s debt crises. Everything is changing. People are taking their comedians seriously and the politicians as a joke, but the ultimate cost of the final European ‘stability fund’, at circa €3 trillion, is no joke.

 

If you had to objectively pin your hopes on one of their diverse rescue theories you may choose the non politician’s, however, you’d quickly recall the Ms Lagarde was a politician until two months back and still is. All politicians should have 3 hats – one to throw into the ring, one to talk through, and one to pull rabbits out of if elected and Ms Lagarde’s appointment, as the ‘elected’ head of the IMF, was undoubtedly a political appointment and she’s desperately searching for that one single rabbit to pull out the hat.

 

One improvement and development of the multitude of G20, IMF, ECB, FED meetings that have taken place on both sides of the Atlantic during the past two weeks, is that finally a unified policy appears to be taking place. An injection of funds into a number of continental banks is the cornerstone of the new and revised three-pronged plan being discussed to ‘save’ the single currency. Finally we get to learn the size of the potential cheque that’ll be stiffed onto the unsuspecting citizens of the seventeen members of the Eurozone, and a few others who’ll have to contribute in order to keep the shrapnel and collateral damage to a minimum. The combined cost could be a truly jaw dropping €3 trillion and it involves giving additional firepower for the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF).

http://blog.fxcc.com/september-26-am

 

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd. (FXCC – BLOG)

[alayoua]

Update - Daily Technical Levels from FXCC – 26 Sep 2011

 

Update - Daily Technical Levels from FXCC – 26 Sep 2011

 

EUR/USD Intraday Technical Levels:

 

Pivot: 1.3575

Preference: Short positions below 1.3575 with targets @ 1.3425 & 1.336 in extension.

Alternative Scenario: Above 1.3575 look for further upside with 1.363 & 1.3695 as targets.

Comment: the pair should strike against its strong resistance as the RSI lacks upward momentum.

 

USD/JPY Intraday Technical Levels:

 

Pivot: 76.6

Preference: Short positions below 76.6 with targets @ 76.1 & 75.95 in extension.

Alternative Scenario: Above 76.6 look for further upside with 76.9 & 77.1 as targets.

Comment: the pair has struck against its new resistance and remains under pressure.

 

GBP/USD Intraday Technical Levels:

 

Pivot: 1.542

Preference: Long positions above 1.542 with targets @ 1.5575 & 1.563 in extension.

Alternative Scenario: Below 1.542 look for further downside with 1.537 & 1.5325 as targets.

Comment: the pair is on the upside and is breaking above its resistance as the RSI has broken above its declining trend line.

 

Daily Technical Levels from fxcc.com

Source: FX Central Clearing http://www.fxcc.com

[alayoua]

The Zloty Loses its Slot

 

The Zloty Loses its Slot

 

Please no laughing at the back of the class, the Polish currency, the zloty, is apparently falling out of favour with investors and speculators. Are you thinking what I’m thinking, that it’s a shame they didn’t ditch their sovereign currency in 2002 and join the euro?

 

Trading humour can be so cruel. The zloty is down 16 percent against the dollar and 9.9 percent versus the euro this quarter as the worst performer amongst the European currencies. “The zloty was not so long ago the darling of Europe, Middle East and Africa regions but these days are gone,” Benoit Anne, the head of global emerging-market strategy at Societe Generale SA in London, said in a phone interview with Bloomberg, “It used to be a very strong fundamental story and you don’t have it anymore.”

 

Poland’s was the only European Union economy to avoid recession after the global credit crisis in 2008 caused record purchases of government’s bonds. The economy expanded an average 4.4 percent a year since 2007, compared with 0.1 percent in the EU. However, that artificial ‘growth’ came at an obvious price; Poland’s budget deficit has more than quadrupled since 2007 to 7.9 percent of GDP last year, the widest gap since at least 1996, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

 

Contagion thoughts took a twist in an unfamiliar direction yesterday, with news that Danish banks are experiencing their own crisis and it’s deepening due to the new government’s plans to impose taxes on lenders, this threatens to deplete capital at a time when most of the country’s banks have no access to funding markets.

 

“The banks are under severe stress,” said Jesper Rangvid, professor of finance at Copenhagen Business School, in an interview with Bloomberg. Imposing extra taxes on the country’s banks “definitely does not contribute to banking stability.”

 

Stocks rallied yesterday, rebounding from last week’s slump. Commodities reversed losses and the Dollar Index declined. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index jumped 2.3 percent to close at 1,162.95 at 4 p.m. in New York. The S&P 500 is down circa 12 percent since the end of June, heading for its worst quarterly performance since 2008. Ten-year U.S. Treasury note yields added six basis points to 1.90 percent, rising from a close to record low. The Dollar Index lost 0.5 percent, while the euro fell against 12 of 16 major peers. Financial shares ranked among the session’s best performers, with the KBW Bank Index up 5.3 percent. Dow component JPMorgan Chase & Co advanced 7 percent to $31.65 while Citigroup Inc gained 7 percent to $26.72.

http://blog.fxcc.com/september-27-am/

 

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd. (FXCC – BLOG)

[alayoua]

Daily Market Roundup - September 29

 

“Love Letters Straight from the Heart” – of Greece’s Turmoil

 

Investors are wary as inspectors from the EU and IMF head to Greece in order to forensically scrutinise their revised austerity plans. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has her own issue, attempting to defuse a revolt within her own government ahead of the absolutely crucial vote on Thursday to expand Europe’s bailout fund. The international auditors return to Athens on Thursday to deliver a verdict on whether or not Greece’s tougher austerity measures qualify for aid to avert a default that would plunge the country into bankruptcy.

 

Inspectors from the European Union (EU) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) quit Greece on September 2, after the government failed to convince its measures were robust enough (in terms of deficit cuts and economic reforms) to deserve further payments under its €110 billion bailout. Before returning, the EU/IMF mission, known as the “troika,” demanded written assurances by Greek authorities that the new pledges will be met. Prime Minister George Papandreou and Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos provided assurances in letters they sent to the troika. The contents were not made public, but the troika visit is conditional on the letters being convincing. Analysts expect the talks to smooth the path for the sixth bailout tranche for Greece, money the country needs to quite simply avoid running out of cash next month plunging the euro zone into an even deeper crisis.

 

Joerg Kraemer, an economist at Commmerzbank;

 

I think euro zone finance ministers will in the end release the next tranche of bailout payments for Greece. They will not dare turning off the tap on Greece right now, it’s a political decision.

 

Commodity stocks drove Wall Street down in late Wednesday trade, the declines in energy and metals prices hit investor concerns regarding overall global economic weakness and Europe’s debt crisis. A seven percent drop in the price of copper (a leading indicator for the global economy) led to a drop of 4.5 percent in the S&P materials index. Silver plunged 5 percent to lead losses in 23 of 24 commodities tracked by the S&P GSCI Index. This commodities gauge has slumped circa ten percent since the end of June, heading for its worst quarterly loss since a 44 percent plunge in the fourth quarter of 2008

 

Wednesday’s final declines places the SPX on course for its worst quarter since the financial crisis in the fourth quarter of 2008. The four day rout last week erased $1 trillion from U.S. equities amid concern Greek insolvency and default is inevitable. The decline left the S&P 500 trading at 12.4 times earnings in the past 12 months, 4.4 percent below its average valuation at the lowest point during the last nine bear markets – Bloomberg.

 

The euro also reversed early gains versus the dollar, investors watched for signs of progress in Europe’s efforts to stem the debt crisis. Treasuries trimmed losses, the 10-year note’s yield capped the biggest four day increase since January 2009. The SPX lost 2.1 percent to 1,151.06 at the close in New York after climbing 0.8 percent earlier and rallying 4.1 percent over the previous three sessions. The euro weakened 0.2 percent erasing a 0.8 percent advance. Ten-year yields rose two basis points to 1.997 percent. Oil lost 3.8 percent after U.S. supplies increased last week.

 

Man Group Plc crashed a stunning twenty five percent, the most since November 2008, after the world’s biggest hedge fund said its assets under management will decline by $6 billion amid the “suppressed” demand for its investment products.

 

The SPX closed down 2.07%, the Russell index collapsed by 4.51% to leave it negative year on year. The UK FTSE closed down 1.44%, the DAX, CAC, STOXX, closed down by a mean of approx.1%. The FTSE equity future is currently down circa 1% and the SPX future is flat. The CAC future is down circa 1% and the DAX future down 0.53%. Sterling is down versus dollar, yen and flat versus the franc. The Aussie dollar has fallen hard versus the USA dollar. The euro has fallen versus all the major pairs.

 

Publications of note that may affect the morning London session sentiment include the following;

 

07:00 UK – Nationwide House Prices Sept

09:30 UK – Net Consumer Credit Aug

09:30 UK – Mortgage Approvals Aug

09:30 UK – M4 Money Supply Aug

10:00 Eurozone – Consumer Confidence Sept

10:00 Eurozone – Economic Confidence Sept

10:00 Eurozone – Industrial Confidence Sept.

 

Notwithstanding the troika ‘visit’ the various Eurozone consumer publications could affect market sentiment. Industrial confidence is expected to fall sharply – a survey of analysts by Bloomberg predicts a figure of -5, from last month’s figure of -2.9. Predictions for the other two surveys suggest similar readings to previous months.

http://blog.fxcc.com/september-28-pm

 

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd. (FXCC – BLOG)

[alayoua]

Daily Market Roundup from FXCC – September 30

 

In a late rally US stocks climbed to end the day in positive territory. The SPX closed up 0.81% to be back in positive territory year on year. Whilst the markets expected a unified vote by the German government to be duly ratified disappointing consumer confidence figures weighed heavily in mid afternoon trade. Consumer confidence in the USA slumped last week to the second-lowest level on record as Americans grew more concerned with their financial situation and the buying climate worsened. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index dropped to minus 53 in the period ended Sept. 25 from minus 52.1 the prior week.

 

The full outcome of the latest troika meeting is still to be revealed. Presumably the markets have, in similar fashion to the German bailout vote, already priced in a positive outcome. The depth of the rabbit hole has been potentially exposed by the head of Europe’s markets regulator who is warning banks to be consistent in their valuations of sovereign debt amid concern some lenders have failed to record sufficient losses on Greek bonds. Quite where they’ll move the hidden losses to remains to be seen. Steven Maijoor, chairman of the European Securities and Markets Authority, likened the lack of transparency about banks’ individual holdings of government debt to the subprime mortgages that triggered the credit crisis.

 

Lack of transparency regarding exposures to subprime mortgages created a situation of uncertainty about the financial positions of banks, a lack of transparency from banks on their exposures to sovereign debt and related instruments are generating new suspicions about the conditions of individual banks and this requires similar answers in terms of transparency. We are currently looking at how banks are applying International Financial Reporting Standards for the valuation of sovereign debt, It is very important for ESMA that financial institutions apply IFRS correctly, and are consistent in their valuations of sovereign debt exposures.

 

The International Accounting Standards Board have accused banks of failing to write down the value of their Greek government debt to reflect market prices; the mark to model as opposed to market phenomena is alive and well. Lenders’ impairments on Greek government ranges from 6 percent to as much as 51 percent in the second quarter, according to analysts at Citigroup Inc.

 

Bigger challenges loom for the euro zone now. Financial markets are already anticipating a likely Greek default and demanding more far-reaching measures to prevent the crisis that began in Athens from spreading far beyond Europe and its banks.

http://blog.fxcc.com/september-29-pm/

 

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd. (FXCC – BLOG)

[alayoua]

Daily Market Roundup by FXCC – October 4 am

 

The same headline is constantly being regurgitated by the usual financial media outlets day after day, it repeats something like this; “US Stocks and the Euro fall as Greece concerns outweigh positive U.S. economic data..” Or we read something similar to the following most days of the week; “Large U.S. bank stocks fell sharply on concerns that lenders like Citigroup Inc and Morgan Stanley may face more earnings setbacks from the debt crisis in Europe.”

 

The constant inference appears to be that the SPX and the Dow Jones stock indices are falling due to the Eurozone debt crisis and not due to the mess the USA is in and has been since 2007-2008. “Oh look, our economic indicators are healthy, if only those pesky Europeans could get their act together.” Sure and..”If only that trinity and axis of unholy financial evil that was Northern Rock, Halifax Bank of Scotland and Cheltenham and Gloucester hadn’t invented the subprime mortgage securitisation business, causing Lehman to collapse, we’d all be living in €1 million houses with $300K mortgages.”

 

Perhaps it’s time for the headline writers in the USA mainstream media to join up the following words; houses, glass, in, people, living, bricks, throw, shouldn’t..

 

As America officially closes its books on the 2010-2011 fiscal year the final trading day of the year saw the settlement of all the outstanding and recently auctioned off debt. Like families splurging their last pay cheque of the year on an Xmas blow-out there was a final intoxicated surge of $95 billion in total government debt overnight, the result being a closing ‘balance’ of the USA being circa $14.8 trillion in debt. During the past fiscal year, the US has issued a total of $1.228 trillion in new debt. At a rate of $125 billion per month US debt to GDP will pass 100% inside a month. The US economy added over 3$ trillion in debt during the past two years and the stock market is almost back to 2009 levels. All that effort, all that money, all that fresh debt and dollar debasement (to be covertly dumped on the masses) and the end result? Zero growth, nada. Yep, it’s all the fault of those Europeans..or could it be the Chinese..?

 

The US Senate voted on Monday evening to push forward legislation designed to press China to let its yuan currency rise in value, creating a debate between lawmakers who say the bill will create jobs and critics who warn it could initiate a trade war. Over sixty senators voted to allow debate on the bipartisan Currency Exchange Rate Oversight Reform Act of 2011, which would allow the U.S. government to place countervailing duties on products from countries found to be (in the opinion of the USA) subsidising their exports by undervaluing their currencies. In short countries and economies who don’t do what the USA admin demands are wrong, period.

 

Manufacturing in the USA grew in September as production and hiring increased. Other data news for the struggling U.S. recovery indicated strong demand for new motor vehicles, construction spending unexpectedly rebounded in August. September marked a 26th straight month of expansion. The Institute for Supply Management said its index of national factory activity rose to 51.6 last month from 50.6 in August, boosted by a rebound in production and increased factory hiring. However, new orders fell for a third straight month suggesting that the underlying conditions are flat.

 

http://blog.fxcc.com/october-3-pm/

 

 

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd. (FXCC BLOG)

[alayoua]

Daily Technical Analysis By FXCC - 05/10/2011

 

Daily Technical Analysis By FXCC - 05/10/2011

 

Euro vs. US Dollar (EURUSD):Weakness in EURUSD is likely to continue.We see a less chances of an immediate rise on the instrument for short-term technical outlook. Next downside barriers follow (1.32871) at (1.32050) and (1.31638).We will try to sell EURUSD from our mentioned resistance levels.

 

R1: 1.34150 | R2: 1.34794 | R3: 1.35197 | R4: 1.36010 | R5: 1.36526

S1: 1.32871 | S2: 1.32050 | S3: 1.31638 | S4: 1.30633 | S5: 1.29812

 

Great Britain Pound vs. US Dollar (GBPUSD):We can say that additional bearish movements could be seen during current session, particularly if it succeeded to maintain prices below (1.55043) zones. A proper confirmation would occur if the GBPUSD will manage to fall beyond the (1.54322) support level.Our bias is on selling GBPUSD with a stop loss above (1.55043) for today.

 

R1: 1.55399 | R2: 1.55940 | R3: 1.56654 | R4: 1.57156 | R5: 1.58473

S1: 1.54322 | S2: 1.53406 | S3: 1.52866 | S4: 1.52325 | S5: 1.51329

 

US Dollar vs.Japanese Yen USDJPY (USDJPY):general trend is to the upside. Break below (76.412) may trigger further fall of the USDJPY. Going above nearest support level at (77.675), however, would confirm continuation of the bullish trend, towards next objective upwards (78.275). Our bias is on buying USDJPY with a stop loss under (76.412) for today.

 

R1: 77.194 | R2: 77.675 | R3: 77.975 | R4: 78.275 | R5: 78.575

S1: 76.495 | S2: 76.106 | S3: 75.806 | S4: 75.506 | S5: 75.206

 

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd. (FXCC)

http://www.fxcc.com/tech-analysis

[alayoua]

Elliot Wave Theory and the Madness of Crowds

 

Elliot Wave Theory and the Madness of Crowds

 

The famed analyst and market technician Robert Prechter came across Ralph Elliott’s work while working as a market technician at the investment bank Merrill Lynch. His prominence as a forecaster, during the bull market of the 1980s, brought the greatest exposure to Elliott’s work.

 

Prechter remains the most widely known Elliott analyst. Robert Prechter is an author and co-author of 14 books, his book “Conquer the Crash” was a New York Times bestseller. He published his monthly financial commentary in the newsletter “The Elliott Wave Theorist” from 1979 and is the founder of Elliott Wave International. Prechter served on the board of the Market Technicians Association for nine years. In recent years Prechter has supported the study of socionomics, a theory about human social behaviour.

 

Ralph Elliott was a professional accountant, who discovered the underlying social principles and developed the analytical tools of what was later to be known as the Elliot Wave Principle in the 1930s. He proposed that market prices unfold in specific identifiable patterns, which practitioners today call Elliott waves, or simply “waves”. Elliott published his theory of market behaviour in the book “The Wave Principle” in 1938 and covered it comprehensively in his major work, “Nature’s Laws: The Secret of the Universe” in 1946. Elliott stated that “because man is subject to rhythmical procedure, calculations having to do with his activities can be projected far into the future with a justification and certainty heretofore unattainable”.

 

The Elliott Wave Principle is a detailed description and ‘formula’ of how groups of people think and as a consequence behave. EWP reveals that mass psychology causes swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural rhythmic sequence, thereby creating specific and measurable patterns. The Elliott Wave Principle can be clearly seen ‘at work’ in the financial markets, where changing investor psychology is recorded in the form of price movements. If you can identify the repeating price patterns and figure out where price is in those repeating patterns you can hopefully predict (with reasonable levels of probability) where price is headed next.

 

The EWP is, however, still fundamentally an exercise in probability. An Elliottician is someone who is able to identify the markets’ structure and anticipate the most likely next move based on the position within those structures. By knowing the wave patterns, you’ll know what the markets are likely to do next and just as importantly what they will probably not do next. By using EWP it’s possible to identify the highest probable moves with the least risk.

 

In Elliott’s model market price alternates between an impulsive motive phase and a corrective phase on all time scales of the trend. Impulses are subdivided into a set of 5 lower-degree waves, alternating between the motive and corrective character, waves 1, 3, and 5 are impulses, and waves 2 and 4 are smaller retraces of waves 1 and 3. Corrective waves subdivide into 3 smaller waves starting with a five-wave counter-trend impulse, a retrace, and another impulse. In bear markets the dominant trend is downward, so the pattern is reversed, five waves down and three up. Motive waves always move with the trend, while corrective waves move against it.

 

Read the full story

http://blog.fxcc.com/elliot-wave-theory-and-the-madness-of-crowds

 

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd. (FXCC BLOG)

[Sixer]

alayoua,

 

why don`t you use the correct famiily name of Ralph "Elliott" in the thread name ?

 

Sixer

[alayoua]

Daily Technical Analysis By FXCC - 07/10/2011

 

Daily Technical Analysis By FXCC - 07/10/2011

Euro vs. US Dollar (EURUSD):It's likely that EURUSD will decline. A break above (1.34608) could be a threat to the bearish scenario targeting (1.36680) even (1.37201). On the downside, immediate support is at (1.33837). Break below that area should keep the major bearish scenario intact testing (1.32414) area We will be looking to sell EURUSD upon any price retracement.

 

 

 

 

R1: 1.34794| R2: 1.35197 | R3: 1.35854 | R4: 1.36680 | R5: 1.37201

S1: 1.33837 | S2: 1.33305 | S3: 1.32414 | S4: 1.31666 | S5: 1.30919

 

Great Britain Pound vs. US Dollar (GBPUSD):We prefer a downside scenario at this phase. Since bias is bearish in nearest term targeting (1.50803). Another move back above (1.55117) could lead us to neutral zone. We will try to sell GBPUSD from our mentioned resistance levels.

 

 

 

R1: 1.54943| R2: 1.55988 | R3: 1.56654 | R4: 1.57156 | R5: 1.57706

S1: 1.53406| S2: 1.51760 | S3: 1.50803 | S4: 1.49459 | S5: 1.48959

 

 

US Dollar vs. Japanese Yen USDJPY (USDJPY):The USDJPY still trapped in range area of (76.926– 76.462). A break in either direction will determine the trading bias in today`s session. Break below (76.462) could trigger further bearish pressure targeting (75.434), while break above (76.926) could trigger further bullish advances testing (77.996). You may try to buy from lower border and/or sell from upper border.

 

 

 

R1: 77.023 | R2: 77.396 | R3: 77.696 | R4: 77.996 | R5: 78.296

S1: 76.334 | S2: 76.034 | S3: 75.734 | S4: 75.434 | S5: 75.134

 

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd. (FXCC)

http://www.fxcc.com/tech-analysis

Edited October 7, 2011 by alayoua

[alayoua]

The Mathematics of Money Management in Forex Trading

 

The Mathematics of Money Management in Forex Trading

 

As Forex traders we have to come to terms with the elements of trading that are completely out of our control. In order to progress we have to accept, (even begin to embrace), that lack of control very early on in our personal trading evolution. Price is obviously the most prominent trading factor bar none and equally there’s one immutable fact, price is a trading factor that we have absolutely no control over. For us to become successful forex traders we have to accept that we have no control over what price will do, we can only take a position in our chosen market based on our interpretation of probability. The risk in the market is not what we want it to be. The risk is what the market imposes upon us.

 

That probable outcome and our ‘judgement call’ can be underscored by; pattern recognition, indicators, price action, waves, fundamental news or a combination of several of the aforementioned mentioned mechanisms. However, using any of the aforementioned does not guarantee success, only underpinning the technique with sound money management will create long term success.

 

Many new traders use the phrase “I was right” when an individual trade is successful. However, you’re not right or wrong, if you reduce trading down to being right or wrong, whilst accepting that price is not under your control, how can you be right? Can a trader who accepts the factor of probability underscoring his or her performance genuinely give themselves credit for being right, or moreover should they in fact credit themselves with sticking their plan? You cannot realistically give yourself credit for ‘guessing’ right, but you can congratulate yourself for planning your trades and trading your plan.

 

There are aspects of trading that we can control, emotions being one, we can also control risk per trade and control that risk almost to the pip by using mathematics. We can control; stops, limits, percentage losses of our accounts per day, per week, per month. In order to be successful it’s incumbent on us to leverage that single and most important element of control we can have over our trading.

 

Ralph Vince has written several theoretical books on the topic of money management in trading. He illustrates, time and time again, that there’s a mathematical certainty you will go broke if you don’t trade systematically by controlling risk. Another celebrated trading mind, Van Tharp, has dined out several times on the strength of the following anecdote concerning Ralph Vince’s theory of money management…

Read the full story

http://www.fxcc.com/trading-tools

http://blog.fxcc.com/the-mathematics-of-money-management-in-forex-trading/

 

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd. (FXCC BLOG)

[alayoua]

Daily Technical Analysis By FXCC - 10/10/2011

 

Daily Technical Analysis By FXCC - 10/10/2011

Euro vs. US Dollar (EURUSD):maintains a bid tone for now. Break above (1.35345) may trigger further recovery of the EURUSD. Going bellow latest swing low at (1.33305), however, would confirm continuation of the bearish trend, towards next objective downwards (1.30908). You may try to sell from (1.34745), (1.35245), and (1.35813) with a stop loss above (1.35345).

 

R1: 1.34745| R2: 1.35245 | R3: 1.35813 | R4: 1.36380 | R5: 1.37448

S1: 1.33305 | S2: 1.32543 | S3: 1.31638 | S4: 1.30908 | S5: 1.30508

 

 

Great Britain Pound vs. US Dollar (GBPUSD):The bias remains neutral in nearest term. A need for a clear break from the range area (1.56560 – 1.53850) so we can see clearer direction. Break below (1.53850) could trigger further bearish pressure targeting (1.52122) and keep the major bearish scenario remains strong while break above (1.56560) could trigger further bullish correction testing (1.59868). We need to keep a closer look on how prices would behave on today`s trading session.

 

R1: 1.56460| R2: 1.57637 | R3: 1.58815 | R4: 1.59868 | R5: 1.61046

S1: 1.54943| S2: 1.54353 | S3: 1.53406 | S4: 1.52122 | S5: 1.50944

 

 

US Dollar vs. Japanese Yen USDJPY (USDJPY):We believe that possible bullishness could be seen during this trading session. Support is at (76.462). Break below that area could lead us to neutral zone as direction would become unclear, but as long as price moves above that level the major scenario remains bullish. Try to buy on depth with a stop loss below (76.462).

 

R1: 77.175 | R2: 77.502 | R3: 77.802 | R4: 78.102 | R5: 78.402

S1: 76.388 | S2: 76.061 | S3: 75.761 | S4: 75.461 | S5: 75.161

 

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd. (FXCC)

http://www.fxcc.com/tech-analysis

[alayoua]

Picking the Right Forex Tools to Aid Your Trading Progress

 

Picking the Right Forex Tools to Aid Your Trading Progress

 

Having discussed at length the position size calculator in a previous article, we thought it might be an opportune time to discuss other forex tools which should prove useful as part of your armoury of weapons to take on the FX market. These tools fall outside the normal scope available from your FX broker and as part of our continual commitment to our clients we intend to (once compiled, tested and our own intellectual property) make these tools permanently and freely available to our client base.

 

There may be other tools for inclusion in our FX toolbox that you’d like to recommend and as this list is only a starting point please feel free to be pro-active with any additional recommendations in the comments section at the foot of the article. Naturally we’ve left out the obvious main tools such as charts and the more experienced traders amongst us will already automatically reference many of these tools throughout the appropriate times of the day or week. However, many of us will testify that we’ve occasionally missed a blindingly obvious move in the markets by forgetting to pay attention to certain freely available tools. Many of us still miss key economic announcements, many position traders or ‘currency investors’ could operate singularly through the COT report, a sentiment index, the VIX and the Fed’s implied volatility rate and there’s many a trader who will still ask; “what time does NY open when the UK British summer time ends?”

 

Some of these tools you’ll have to bookmark yourself and be professional and disciplined enough to visit each resource on a daily basis. Some are not free, such as a squawk service and there’s often a one off charge to have, for example, a world clock sit inside your browser, nevertheless it’s up to you as a professional to examine your needs and requirements.

Position Size Calculator

 

So let’s start with the position size calculator. By putting in your account balance, your risk tolerance in percentage (or money value) and the stop in pips the calculator automatically gives you a lot size. Whether full lots, mini lots, or micro this calculator is invaluable to traders new to FX trading. As we progress we automatically ‘do the math’ in our head, however, this calculator is one of the most important tools given it is a key money management resource.

Economic Calendar Events List

 

Currency price reacts to fundamentals. Being aware of which fundamental news releases are scheduled for release on any given day should form part of any trader’s pre market preparation. FXCC produce an economic calendar that’s as comprehensive as you need.

 

Read the full story

http://blog.fxcc.com/picking-the-right-forex-tools-to-aid-your-trading-progress

 

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd. (FXCC BLOG)

[alayoua]

Daily Technical Analysis by FXCC - 12/10/2011

 

Daily Technical Analysis by FXCC - 12/10/2011

 

Euro vs. US Dollar (EURUSD):general trend is to the upside. Break below (1.35554) may trigger further fall of the EURUSD. Going above nearest support level at (1.37483), however, would confirm continuation of the bullish trend, towards next objective upwards (1.38667). We will be looking to buy EURUSD upon any price retracement.

 

 

R1: 1.36838| R2: 1.37483 | R3: 1.38127 | R4: 1.38667 | R5: 1.39311

S1: 1.35965 | S2: 1.35245 | S3: 1.34575 | S4: 1.33931 | S5: 1.33391

 

Great Britain Pound vs. US Dollar (GBPUSD):We can say that additional bullish movements could be seen during current session, particularly if it succeeded to stabilize above (1.56032) zones. A proper confirmation would occur if the GBPUSD will manage to overcome the (1.56384) resistance. Look for long positions for today`s trading session.

 

 

R1: 1.56384| R2: 1.56889 | R3: 1.57956 | R4: 1.58456 | R5: 1.58956

S1: 1.55112| S2: 1.54488 | S3: 1.53950 | S4: 1.53406 | S5: 1.52906

 

 

US Dollar vs. Japanese Yen USDJPY (USDJPY):Overall the direction remains unclear and price is moving in (77.009 - 76.462) range area, the instrument has a 50 – 50 chance of a recovery above (77.009) or a fall towards (76.462) in the coming session. We should wait for the victory of either team players (Bulls or Bears).

 

 

R1: 76.974 | R2: 77.274 | R3: 77.574 | R4: 77.874 | R5: 78.174

S1: 76.335 | S2: 76.035 | S3: 75.735 | S4: 75.435 | S5: 75.135

 

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd. (FXCC)

http://www.fxcc.com/tech-analysis

[alayoua]

Daily Technical Analysis by FXCC - October 13 2011

 

Daily Technical Analysis by FXCC - October 13 2011

 

Euro vs. US Dollar (EURUSD):We expect a bullish overall direction for today. That requires the base to build on (1.37350); targeting (1.38337) then (1.38875). A break under (1.35725) support area will extend losses to (1.35245). Look for long positions for today`s trading session.

 

 

R1: 1.38337| R2: 1.38875 | R3: 1.39862 | R4: 1.41387 | R5: 1.42374

S1: 1.37350 | S2: 1.36838 | S3: 1.36363 | S4: 1.35825 | S5: 1.35245

 

Great Britain Pound vs. US Dollar (GBPUSD):We believe that possible bullishness could be seen during this trading session. Support is at (1.55325). Break below that area could lead us to neutral zone as direction would become unclear, but as long as price moves above that level the major scenario remains bullish. You may try to buy from (1.56958), (1.56243), and (1.55425) with a stop loss below (1.55325).

 

 

R1: 1.58491| R2: 1.59513 | R3: 1.61046 | R4: 1.62068 | R5: 1.63601

S1: 1.56958| S2: 1.56243 | S3: 1.55425 | S4: 1.54841 | S5: 1.54199

 

 

US Dollar vs. Japanese Yen USDJPY (USDJPY):We see high chances of the pair move up gradually towards (78.179 – 78.873). A proper confirmation would occur if the USDJPY will manage to overcome the (77.699) resistance over today`s trading session. Long positions are favored for today.

 

 

R1: 77.699 | R2: 78.179 | R3: 78.873 | R4: 79.353 | R5: 80.047

S1: 76.909 | S2: 76.562 | S3: 75.831 | S4: 75.351 | S5: 74.657

 

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd. (FXCC)

http://www.fxcc.com/tech-analysis

[alayoua]

Daily Technical Analysis by FXCC October 14 2011

 

Daily Technical Analysis by FXCC October 14 2011

 

Euro vs. US Dollar (EURUSD):We can say that additional bullish movements could be seen during current session, particularly if it succeeded to stabilize above (1.36751) zones. A proper confirmation would occur if the EURUSD will manage to overcome the (1.38261) resistance. We will try to buy EURUSD from our mentioned support levels.

 

 

R1: 1.38261| R2: 1.39030 | R3: 1.39799 | R4: 1.40440 | R5: 1.41209

S1: 1.36982 | S2: 1.36210 | S3: 1.35654 | S4: 1.35245 | S5: 1.34800

Great Britain Pound vs. US Dollar (GBPUSD):We prefer upside scenario at this phase.Since bias is bullish in nearest term targeting (1.60469). Another move back below (1.56557) could lead us to neutral zone.You may try to buy from (1.56896), (1.56243), and (1.55705) with a stop loss below (1.56557).

 

 

R1: 1.58563| R2: 1.59278 | R3: 1.60469 | R4: 1.60969 | R5: 1.61469

S1: 1.56896| S2: 1.56243 | S3: 1.55705 | S4: 1.54990 | S5: 1.53950

 

US Dollar vs. Japanese Yen USDJPY (USDJPY):We can say that additional bullish movements could be seen during current session, particularly if it succeeded to stabilize above (76.574) zones. A proper confirmation would occur if the USDJPY will manage to overcome the (77.215) resistance. You may try to buy from (76.562), (75.983), and (75.683) with a stop loss below (76.574).

 

 

R1: 77.215 | R2: 77.560 | R3: 78.176 | R4: 78.476 | R5: 78.776

S1: 76.562 | S2: 75.983 | S3: 75.683 | S4: 75.383 | S5: 75.083

 

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd. (FXCC)

http://www.fxcc.com/tech-analysis

[alayoua]

Daily Technical Analysis by FXCC October 17 2011

 

Daily Technical Analysis by FXCC October 17 2011

 

Euro vs US Dollar Strength in EURUSD is likely to continue.

We see a less chances of an immediate fall on the instrument for short-term technical outlook.

Next upside barriers follow (1.39394) at (1.40021) and (1.41102).

Our bias is on buying EURUSD with a stop loss under (1.37132) for today

 

 

R1: 1.39394| R2: 1.40021 | R3: 1.41102 | R4: 1.41729 | R5: 1.42810

S1: 1.38261 | S2: 1.37686 | S3: 1.37232 | S4: 1.36732 | S5: 1.36179

 

Great Britian Pound vs US Dollar Strength in GBPUSD is likely to continue.

We see a less chances of an immediate fall on the instrument for short-term technical outlook.

Next upside barriers follow (1.59270) at (1.60019) and (1.60574).

Look for long positions for current trading session.

 

 

R1: 1.59270| R2: 1.60019 | R3: 1.60574 | R4: 1.61323 | R5: 1.61823

S1: 1.57411| S2: 1.56889 | S3: 1.56243 | S4: 1.55425 | S5: 1.54925

 

 

US Dollar vs Japanise Yen The outlook has grown increasingly bullish since USDJPY had remained above its latest swing low at (76.574).

If this support level is broken to the downside, the outlook will deteriorate.

Try to buy on depth with a stop loss below (76.574).

 

 

R1: 77.447 | R2: 77.773 | R3: 78.100 | R4: 78.400 | R5: 78.727

S1: 76.674 | S2: 76.311 | S3: 75.892 | S4: 75.592 | S5: 75.292

 

 

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd. (FXCC)

http://www.fxcc.com/tech-analysis

[alayoua]

Daily Technical Analysis by FXCC - October18

 

Daily Technical Analysis by FXCC - October18

 

 

Euro vs. US Dollar (EURUSD):Strength in EURUSD is likely to continue. We see a less chances of an immediate fall on the instrument for short-term technical outlook. Next upside barriers follow (1.37922) at (1.38337) and (1.38940). Look for long positions for current trading session.

 

 

R1: 1.37922| R2: 1.38337 | R3: 1.38940 | R4: 1.39812 | R5: 1.40482

S1: 1.36851 | S2: 1.36179 | S3: 1.35654 | S4: 1.34812 | S5: 1.34142

 

Great Britain Pound vs. US Dollar (GBPUSD):We see high chances of the pair move up gradually towards (1.58521 – 1.59340). A proper confirmation would occur if the GBPUSD will manage to overcome the (1.57980) resistance over today`s trading session. You may try to buy from (1.56889), (1.56243), and (1.55425) with a stop loss below (1.57206).

 

 

R1: 1.57980| R2: 1.58521 | R3: 1.59340 | R4: 1.60079 | R5: 1.60579

S1: 1.56889| S2: 1.56243 | S3: 1.55425 | S4: 1.54925 | S5: 1.54425

 

 

US Dollar vs. Japanese Yen USDJPY (USDJPY):The USDJPY bias is neutral. Upper barrier is at (77.553), break above that area could trigger further short term upside pressure testing (77.806). On the downside, the important price level at (76.574) may be tested or broken in the coming sessions, which may pull the pair towards (75.605 – 75.253). You may try to buy from lower border and/or sell from upper border.

 

 

R1: 77.215 | R2: 77.806 | R3: 78.158 | R4: 78.657 | R5: 79.009

S1: 76.456 | S2: 76.104 | S3: 75.605 | S4: 75.253 | S5: 74.953

 

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd. (FXCC)

http://www.fxcc.com/tech-analysis

[alayoua]

The Business of Trading

 

The Business of Trading

 

http://blog.fxcc.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/the-business-of-trading.jpg

 

There’s a comedian in the UK called Frank Skinner, he tells a great story of walking through London’s China Town one late summer evening. Amongst all the restaurants he sees a sign in the window of a boarded up shop, the sign is for a new Chinese restaurant, “New Chinese restaurant opening Autumn!!”. He chuckles to himself thinking what sage came up with that eureka ‘light bulb’ moment to decide; “d’ya know what this town could really do with…?”

 

There’s been a late revival of sorts on many town high streets in the UK. This follows the pattern in the USA where many newly unemployed folk have decided to give self employment a go given their employment opportunities are limited. Many in the UK have chosen to set up niche retail businesses. In my town it’s hairdressers that appear to be breeding onto the high street, we must have at least ten, four new ones in the past twelve months. As I walked past the latest addition, (empty of customers in what are still recessionary times), I wondered what the set up cost was, the over heads, the employment liabilities, the lease term and obligations, the break even figure? Ignoring all other factors I imagine that the set up cost alone, before the cash register even rings, must be in the region of £50k…

 

Self employed traders can be forgiven for forgetting they’re actually involved in the day to day running of a business. It’s also quite easy to over look the benefits of being in our business over and above some other self employment options that may be out there. From time to time it may be worth taking time out to take stock of the huge benefits of being a self employed trader, a particularly useful exercise if you’ve had a poor trading day. There are obvious life style benefits to trading; the hours you get to choose, the freedom, the creativity, the independence, but trading actually stacks up very favourably compared to other self employed professions..

 

Read the full story

http://blog.fxcc.com/the-business-of-trading/

 

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd. (FXCC BLOG)

[alayoua]

Daily Technical Analysis by FXCC 20 Oct 2011

 

Daily Technical Analysis by FXCC 20 Oct 2011

 

Euro vs US Dollar EURUSD general trend is to the upside.

Break below (1.37150) may trigger further fall of the EURUSD. Going above nearest support level at (1.38427), however, would confirm continuation of the bullish trend, towards next objective upwards (1.39869).

We will be looking to buy EURUSD upon any price retracement.

 

 

R1: 1.37996 | R2: 1.38427 | R3: 1.38940 | R4: 1.39869 | R5: 1.40722

S1: 1.36985 | S2: 1.36525 | S3: 1.35825 | S4: 1.34954 | S5: 1.34554

 

 

Great Britian Pound vs US Dollar Currently, further bullish actions could be seen on GBPUSD.

A break below (1.56215) could be a threat to the bullish scenario targeting (1.55429) even (1.54662).

On upside. Immediate resistance is at (1.58477). A close above that area should keep the major bullish scenario intact testing (1.60013) area.

Buy on depth for today with a stop loss below (1.56215).

 

 

R1: 1.58477 | R2: 1.59246 | R3: 1.60013 | R4: 1.60774 | R5: 1.61541

S1: 1.57217 | S2: 1.56657 | S3: 1.56132 | S4: 1.55429 | S5: 1.54662

 

 

US Dollar vs Japanise Yen Overall the direction remains unclear and price is moving in (77.553 - 76.574) range area, the instrument has a 50 – 50 chance of a recovery above (77.553) or a fall towards (76.574) in the coming session.

We should wait for the victory of either team players (Bulls or Bears).

 

 

R1: 77.185| R2: 77.485 | R3: 77.785 | R4: 78.085 | R5: 78.385

S1: 76.485 | S2: 76.185 | S3: 75.885 | S4: 75.585 | S5: 75.285

 

 

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd. (FXCC)

http://www.fxcc.com/tech-analysis