navotna Posted July 11, 2012 Report Share Posted July 11, 2012 Hi Navotna, A lot of folks in here find TS a bit complicated to deal with because of its spec or perhaps lacking knowledge with astro, never mind NN. Me too, I am a simple man. I like thing to be simple. So with TS I spent lots of time understanding just the basic of it. To this point I try to share what I know that might work. It was just so unfortunated that I had a crash that wiped out all of my favorite settings. Up until now, I tried to redo the whole thing and still coudn't come up with good tradeable signal. That's why I haven't really post much of what I have. It's not that I did not want to share my knowledge (little of what I know), but it's a simple fact that I couldn't get NN to give good signal. At the moment, I am only trading with astronomy composite lines. With best regards, Unclepips Dear Unclepips, Truly an honest reply. I really appreciate your truthfulness and caring as well as helping attitude with the others. No body can change the destiny of the others. If we are here and benefiting then it is our destiny, what in our control is only our hard work. That is why there is no harm in sharing the knowledge, some will profit from it and some will have a loss ( Because of their own destiny). In fact there is always a win-2 situation for the person who is distributing the knowledge for free, He will get the priceless positive thoughts and energy of the others that in turn will enhance his destiny in positive direction. Any way I do not want to go off topic now. I will be posting more charts ASAP. Regards, Navotna, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
⭐ Unclepips Posted July 11, 2012 Author Report Share Posted July 11, 2012 Navotna, Sometimes, I am so ignorant.. knowing that the market will always drop until early August or so and I still take that long trade. I should just keep on looking for sell highs. Bests, Unclepips Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
navotna Posted July 11, 2012 Report Share Posted July 11, 2012 (edited) Did more short selling in euro and covered. http://img689.imageshack.us/img689/3323/eurousdshort3.gif, Regards, Navotna, PLEASE CHECK (MY LAST POST NO. 111 and,) THIS THREAD'S POST NO. 662 ON PAGE 67,( Please check the page no. as it may change.) AFTER THAT - Mr. ASHISH MOHAN (TIWARI) will post in place for me. MY EMAIL ADDRESS IS - [email protected] ALSO IF YOU WANT TO SEND PM THEN PM TO "ASHISH MOHAN". I WILL GET YOUR PM. REGARDS, NAVOTNA, Edited July 25, 2012 by navotna Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
navotna Posted July 11, 2012 Report Share Posted July 11, 2012 No more short trades in Euro today. Regards, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
navotna Posted July 11, 2012 Report Share Posted July 11, 2012 (edited) Specially for tgt1, There is a good buying opportunity in Silver today at around 6 to 7 PM GMT, I am ready to build the long positions in Gold and Silver (backed by technical analysis). then on Friday afternoon (GMT) I am ready to exit. Both the decisions are backed by TS NN Ag D1 and 15M charts I am posting below. Silver Daily chart below, look at the dark area for long ( I have to refine it more but did not get the time so decision is primarily backed by 15M Chart posted next). http://img818.imageshack.us/img818/2986/silverdailylc1a8.gif Silver 15M, http://img809.imageshack.us/img809/3205/ag15mfor11thjuly2012cop.gif Regards, Navotna, PLEASE CHECK (MY LAST POST NO. 111 and,) THIS THREAD'S POST NO. 662 ON PAGE 67,( Please check the page no. as it may change.) AFTER THAT - Mr. ASHISH MOHAN (TIWARI) will post in place for me. MY EMAIL ADDRESS IS - [email protected] ALSO IF YOU WANT TO SEND PM THEN PM TO "ASHISH MOHAN". I WILL GET YOUR PM. REGARDS, NAVOTNA, Edited July 25, 2012 by navotna Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usmanumar0821 Posted July 11, 2012 Report Share Posted July 11, 2012 Don't worry unclepips. I know with time everything will be back and continue your great work. Hi Navotna, A lot of folks in here find TS a bit complicated to deal with because of its spec or perhaps lacking knowledge with astro, never mind NN. Me too, I am a simple man. I like thing to be simple. So with TS I spent lots of time understanding just the basic of it. To this point I try to share what I know that might work. It was just so unfortunated that I had a crash that wiped out all of my favorite settings. Up until now, I tried to redo the whole thing and still coudn't come up with good tradeable signal. That's why I haven't really post much of what I have. It's not that I did not want to share my knowledge (little of what I know), but it's a simple fact that I couldn't get NN to give good signal. At the moment, I am only trading with astronomy composite lines. With best regards, Unclepips Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
⭐ kesk Posted July 11, 2012 Report Share Posted July 11, 2012 I may not know Astro like some here do, but i know NN. NN and backtesting are double edged swords. I give some thoughts on NN and bactest. The correlation that we discuss here should be judged/read carefully. 1. In NN and backtest, any score (correlation, profit, %win/loss) will most most probably be good. 2. What happens when the same is applied on the out of sample period. Thats whats more important. Most of the time, it wont be as rosy as the backtest. 3. There should be a stopping criteria of NN test based on no of epochs, error critieria, no of min/hrs/days allowed to run, etc. 4. If we allow the NN to continue forever, there is a high probability that it will memorize the past and when applied to the future, it will fail badly. This is called over training and not 'generlising'. My understanding of TS, the correlation that we see is for the 'training period'. So be careful when you train for a correlation of 1! If we allow enough time, eventually we will be there! I welcome your inputs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
navotna Posted July 11, 2012 Report Share Posted July 11, 2012 Technical analysis is not supporting (On 4H Chart) the decision of taking long positions in Gold and Silver. Hence going long is suspended for the time being. It will depend upon how much downside market goes in both the Metals. Regards, Navotna, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
navotna Posted July 11, 2012 Report Share Posted July 11, 2012 Just covered the short in Gold, preparing to buy asap technical signal would be there, because time is 6:30 GMT as predicted in TS NN ( 6:15 GMT) Time is ripe for taking long both in Gold and Silver. [http://img13.imageshack.us/img13/1771/goldshort3.gif/IMG] Regards, Navotna, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
navotna Posted July 11, 2012 Report Share Posted July 11, 2012 Just covered the short in Gold, preparing to buy asap technical signal would be there, because time is 6:30 GMT as predicted in TS NN ( 6:15 GMT) Time is ripe for taking long both in Gold and Silver. %5Bhttp%3A//img13.imageshack.us/img13/1771/goldshort3.gif/IMG%5D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
navotna Posted July 11, 2012 Report Share Posted July 11, 2012 I may not know Astro like some here do, but i know NN. NN and backtesting are double edged swords. I give some thoughts on NN and bactest. The correlation that we discuss here should be judged/read carefully. 1. In NN and backtest, any score (correlation, profit, %win/loss) will most most probably be good. 2. What happens when the same is applied on the out of sample period. Thats whats more important. Most of the time, it wont be as rosy as the backtest. 3. There should be a stopping criteria of NN test based on no of epochs, error critieria, no of min/hrs/days allowed to run, etc. 4. If we allow the NN to continue forever, there is a high probability that it will memorize the past and when applied to the future, it will fail badly. This is called over training and not 'generlising'. My understanding of TS, the correlation that we see is for the 'training period'. So be careful when you train for a correlation of 1! If we allow enough time, eventually we will be there! I welcome your inputs. Dear kesk, I am in full agreement with your thought process. Back-testing is useless if it can not predict the future correctly, that is why I seldom back test. Everybody must read kesk's post very carefully and word by word to understand it properly. Very good input kesk, thanks a lot. Regards, Navotna, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
navotna Posted July 11, 2012 Report Share Posted July 11, 2012 I am long in both the Silver and Gold as planned and well predicted by TS NN. I took the trade around 6:30 PM GMT, again time predicted by TS NN was 6:15 PM GMT (MIG Broker has 2H of difference with GMT). The market exactly took the bottom at 6:15 PM GMT. (check the timings in your chart). I will try to hold the positions and will add the positions next day, depending upon other conditions. The big day to long the Gold and silver is yet to come. Please see the images. Gold long- http://img42.imageshack.us/img42/6816/goldlong1.gif Silver long - http://img213.imageshack.us/img213/420/silverlong1.gif Regards, Navotna, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
⭐ kesk Posted July 12, 2012 Report Share Posted July 12, 2012 Navtona, A few questions and hope you will answer. 1. What are your inputs for the NN process? Cycles/spectrum or Astro or Candlestick inputs or a combination of these? 2. How did you get the TS projection to MT4 chart as shown in the Nifty chart? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
navotna Posted July 12, 2012 Report Share Posted July 12, 2012 Navtona, A few questions and hope you will answer. 1. What are your inputs for the NN process? Cycles/spectrum or Astro or Candlestick inputs or a combination of these? 2. How did you get the TS projection to MT4 chart as shown in the Nifty chart? Please elaborate 2nd point with a reference. Regards, Navotna, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
navotna Posted July 12, 2012 Report Share Posted July 12, 2012 Dear kesk, This one is specially for you, NIFTY DAILY, trained for more than 24 H, inputs 4 (ADX, RPO, MA, RSI), LBC approx 1200, correlation - more than 98%. No astrology, have to use it and refine more. It is based on closing of day before yesterday's data. As per projection NIFTY will be up (up to 16th July 2012) then will be down for several days. I have to train it on 15M chart. See the image- http://img715.imageshack.us/img715/9900/niftydaily.gif Regards, Navotna, tgt123 and ⭐ kesk 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
navotna Posted July 12, 2012 Report Share Posted July 12, 2012 Today NIFTY is advised to be long on dips (use your own risk and other parameters, backed by technical analysis). Regards, Navotna, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
⭐ kesk Posted July 12, 2012 Report Share Posted July 12, 2012 Hi Navtona, My 2nd question is this: This is the picture i was refering to. I believe this is the MT4 projection (green bars) based on TS? How did you achieve this? The question arises since in TS projections are all lines only and not bars. Image is not good, get the better one - http://img837.imageshack.us/img837/5571/india50dprojection.jpg Regards, Navotna, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tgt123 Posted July 12, 2012 Report Share Posted July 12, 2012 Thanks. Navotna, May I know why we take the date/time of the purple only not the others 3 projection lines ? By the way, what is line for purple? For LBC 1200 bar meant the "pink area" testing interval zone have 1200 bar. as shown on the image below ? http://www.timingsolution.com/TS/Study/BT/bt_1.jpg Thanks Regard tgt123 ( RPO ) Dear kesk, This one is specially for you, NIFTY DAILY, trained for more than 24 H, inputs 4 (ADX, RPO, MA, RSI), LBC approx 1200, correlation - more than 98%. No astrology, have to use it and refine more. It is based on closing of day before yesterday's data. As per projection NIFTY will be up (up to 16th July 2012) then will be down for several days. I have to train it on 15M chart. See the image- http://img715.imageshack.us/img715/9900/niftydaily.gif Regards, Navotna, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
navotna Posted July 12, 2012 Report Share Posted July 12, 2012 Thanks. Navotna, May I know why we take the date/time of the purple only not the others 3 projection lines ? By the way, what is line for purple? For LBC 1200 bar meant the "pink area" testing interval zone have 1200 bar. as shown on the image below ? http://www.timingsolution.com/TS/Study/BT/bt_1.jpg Thanks Regard tgt123 ( RPO ) Purple represents the highest probability scenario and will predict on the basis of all the 4, not alone. ( Should be used for holding positions and not scalping) It should not be understood that purple will be always right, (It will depend upon time frame you trade) because if you see other three lines then will find, that two are showing infact- today market will open down and it really happened. You have to interpret NN projections based on your own parameters. What is right for me may not be for you. Regards, Navotna, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
navotna Posted July 12, 2012 Report Share Posted July 12, 2012 Bought the NIFTY @ 5251.5, will hold for some time. Regards, Navotna, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tgt123 Posted July 12, 2012 Report Share Posted July 12, 2012 Thanks Navotna, I meant is the purple line is RPO line? why we dun use other ADX etc, RPO have better projection? Thanks Regard tgt123 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
navotna Posted July 12, 2012 Report Share Posted July 12, 2012 Dear all fellow traders, Gold future turning points ( look for thumbs-up points ) based on my personal angle projection technique. http://img32.imageshack.us/img32/5856/futureturningpointsingo.gif Regards, Navotna, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
navotna Posted July 12, 2012 Report Share Posted July 12, 2012 Normally I do not use ADX, RPO has better projection but in case of NIFTY, ADX gave better correlation. Whether the ADX will be able to project/predict the future correctly will only be verified in coming future. Regards, Navotna, tgt123 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
navotna Posted July 12, 2012 Report Share Posted July 12, 2012 Dear wickedwin, I managed to reply your PM last day. Please check your inbox. Regards, Navotna, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tgt123 Posted July 12, 2012 Report Share Posted July 12, 2012 Thank a lot Navotna. Best Regard tgt123 Normally I do not use ADX, RPO has better projection but in case of NIFTY, ADX gave better correlation. Whether the ADX will be able to project/predict the future correctly will only be verified in coming future. Regards, Navotna, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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