Market Makers Thread Aftermath

[joeher133]

I completely agree and relate to your experience in the room. My first live trade was a 3 pip breakeven trade and I experienced the same issues, the desire to be right got in the way of the trade management, etc. I ended up taking another trade without posting it because of the same emotions and ended being a decent winner (34 pips). Last week was also a difficult week, specially if you are only trading one currency (EURUSD in my case) Nothing like January was, when most winning trades went for 80-100 pips and the few losers were very small. This is all part of the learning process and I am glad that there are some people brave enough to be honest in their discussions and have the desire to collaborate. To the Naysayers that insist on telling us that the system doesn't work live, etc. Thanks for your "concern" but we are smart enough to figure out on our own what works better for us.

 

 

May I add that those who can't refrain from rapping about stealing and copyright are going to be kicked out of this room after a warning or two. Same goes for public distribution of copyrighted material. Freedom of speech does not apply in this room. People who need to discuss these issues may start their own room.

 

We had excellent discussions during some sessions last week and will keep it at that. Some of us even posted live trades. As you can imagine, this is not easy to do while focusing on trading.

 

Anyone welcome to listen or contribute.

 

Cheers!

 

P.S.

For me, one reason why I find posting trades live difficult is the following: Once I have voiced a strong opinion (in form of a trade with SL and target), it is much more difficult to modify my opinion. I am losing thought flexibility because I, as most human beings, prefer to be right.

 

In fact, last week, I lost my first live trade (minus 1.0 risk). It was a simple mistake, against my rules. So far, so good. This happens also in private trading.

 

However, my second trade was within my set of rules, went through, up to around +2.7 risk and I didn't take profit because I had expressed my target of +3.5 risk. I should have (and do in 99% of cases) taken 2.0 risk on days where my pre-market analysis indicates choppy markets (I had explicitly written this down as part of my daily plan of attack). The distraction of (a) live chatting plus (b) the (subconscious) desire to be right ... stopped me out break-even and left me with a total of minus 1.0 risk for the day. Haven't had a negative day for quite some time, believe it or not.

 

Primarily, I am a trader, not an educator. Just here to give back a little to the community of what I have received freely (while enjoying a little entertainment and recognition, of course).

 

Therefore, please join me in my appreciation and respect for those who dare to post their trades live and help junior traders on their journey to profitability!

[Steveg]

We had a previous thread...that were closed or deleted by admin because of the illegal sharings but I see they are still distributing on their profile page visitor messages, so it's still going on. You can get a copy easily from couple of them.

 

At least one thread was closed by the II administrator because some posters were posting "rubbish", not because of file sharing. He pointed out that the thread had become one of provoking and insulting others. The administrator advised that members ignore them and report them.

Edited February 19, 2012 by Steveg

[hart3000]

The administrator advised that members ignore them and report them.

 

Does a thread starter has the option to ban posters?

[Steveg]

Concerns should be reported to the Indo-Investasi administrators.

 

They are:

 

chankl78

hermanhess

Edited February 21, 2012 by Steveg

[whakamaru]

The ForexFactory thread has started a IRC room at,

 

http://chat.mibbit.com/?channel=%23MW&server=chat.ircforex.com:+6697

 

In case this doesn't work, you can log on manually:

 

1. http://chat.mibbit.com/

2. Click Server, then enter: chat.ircforex.com:+6697

3. Enter any Nick you like (but make sure it's not used)

4. Channel: #MW

5. [Connect]

 

http://i.imgur.com/wwu2L.png

 

There are no chats over the weekends of course, but you can test it out and be ready by Monday. hart3000, Primor, joeher133, 2face, are some of the II people active there. (Notice that the topic was set by hart3000). Details can be found at http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=5386383#post5386383

 

You can post charts while chatting too,

http://i.imgur.com/g05Rh.png

 

 

Doesn't work

[Steveg]

Based on observation of today's EURUSD wide range and volatility in the Asian session (and past observations of varying ranges, including almost no range) it seems the market can do anything during this period on any given day.

[hart3000]

[Room] [d]oesn't work

 

I sometimes have to try several times before being accepted (even on first entry of the day). Don't know why.

[pcguy007]

Is there a certain time when the chat has people in the room?

I've checked a couple of times today and no one in room

[Steveg]

EURUSD is still trading in a range. It is generally a relatively narrow range, not exceeding the range created during the Asian session (with the exception of the previous wide-ranging day both in and out of the Asian session). An hourly chart shows an orderly cyclical pattern going back for the duration of the last multi-day up trend. EURUSD appears to be making a rounding top, suggesting (but not guaranteeing) the start of a downward trend. Moves to the downside are still gradual and restrained. The bulls are not yet exhausted. How are traders trading this market (whether by MMM theory or otherwise)? For that matter, is this all orchestrated by the market makers?

[f451]

EURUSD is still trading in a range. It is generally a relatively narrow range, not exceeding the range created during the Asian session (with the exception of the previous wide-ranging day both in and out of the Asian session). An hourly chart shows an orderly cyclical pattern going back for the duration of the last multi-day up trend. EURUSD appears to be making a rounding top, suggesting (but not guaranteeing) the start of a downward trend. Moves to the downside are still gradual and restrained. The bulls are not yet exhausted. How are traders trading this market (whether by MMM theory or otherwise)? For that matter, is this all orchestrated by the market makers?

 

 

Yes, it's a range - buy the bottom of the range, sell the top - but be careful (especially at the bottom if your bias is down) watch volume as price approaches the edge of the range - increasing volume - potential breakout - not a reversal - volume should drop off as price approaches the range boundary for a range edge reversal. You can also use an oscillator here - overbought oversold and divergence signals work well in a range as you approach the boundaries

[joeher133]

I recognized the range this morning during the U.S session. Woke up late so missed the London session. I switched to a 5 Minute chart and I was able to get one trade going up with a 20 pip target but got stopped on my trailing stop for +10. Then I reversed and got my 20 pips, ending the day at +30. Considering the lack of movement I'm happy with this results. I spent the rest of the day backtesting 5M charts. Hopefully I will wake up on time for London tonight and go back to my comfort zone with the 15M charts.

 

EURUSD is still trading in a range. It is generally a relatively narrow range, not exceeding the range created during the Asian session (with the exception of the previous wide-ranging day both in and out of the Asian session). An hourly chart shows an orderly cyclical pattern going back for the duration of the last multi-day up trend. EURUSD appears to be making a rounding top, suggesting (but not guaranteeing) the start of a downward trend. Moves to the downside are still gradual and restrained. The bulls are not yet exhausted. How are traders trading this market (whether by MMM theory or otherwise)? For that matter, is this all orchestrated by the market makers?

[Steveg]

Joeher: Nice job. Steve

[Steveg]

One or two things to be mindful of in EURUSD is that what looked like a rounding top, albeit with support on the downside, appears to be shifting to a flat to slight uptrending mode. Of course the implication of a rounding top is that the bulls only give way gradually, in this case very gradually. On the one hour chart, the trend appears mostly flat. It is apparent that the range has narrowed. And a measure of cyclicality (say the MBFX timer which is like stochastics) is having difficulty becoming oversold by conventional standards. The indicator does not go much below the center of the indicator range on the hourly since the last London open. In other words, it looks like sentiment is shifting back to the upside on the 30 minute and hourly. We could be in an accumulation or reaccumulation phase (on the hourly). When range narrows (say as measured by Bollinger bands) that usually preceeds a more dramatic breakout move. But when? And where? I'm tempted to predict it will be up...but I'm not sure I have the courage of my own crystal ball gazing. Shorter time frames have their own dynamics, of course. Edited February 23, 2012 by Steveg

[Steveg]

IanFoster: What is your connection to Steve Mauro and the MMM program?

[pcguy007]

I logged in during london session, i didn't see anyone their, i left it open for 3 hours.

 

weird

[pcguy007]

well the picture above was taken 1 hour into London open, around 4am Eastern Time (see the timestamp on left column).

 

 

I'll try again tonight earlier, thanks

[Steveg]

EURUSD had a nice upside breakout at the opening of the London session. Price clung to the upper Bollinger band, characteristic of a strong uptrend. Price corrected later, but only a brief, easily contained excursion to within the Asian range. From there it resumed an orderly climb. Price stayed level at the opening hours of the Wellington/Sydney market. We don't yet know what the Asian session will portend. At this point we'd have to say the trend is your friend (notwithstanding J.P. Morgan's admonition to someone seeking authoritative knowledge that the market would fluctuate). Edited February 24, 2012 by Steveg

[pcguy007]

EURUSD had a nice upside breakout at the opening of the London session. Price clung to the upper Bollinger band, characteristic of a strong uptrend. Price corrected later, but only a brief, easily contained excursion to within the Asian range. From there it resumed an orderly climb. Price stayed level at the opening hours of the Wellington/Sydney market. We don't yet know what the Asian session will portend. At this point we'd have to say the trend is your friend (notwithstanding J.P. Morgan's admonition to someone seeking authoritative knowledge that the market would fluctuate).

 

I'm guessing that we are do for a reversal and movement down, we'll see what happens during london

[Steveg]

I'm guessing that we are do for a reversal and movement down, we'll see what happens during london

 

Yes. A (very) flat EURUSD Asian session (thus far) and downward pointing divergence suggest you are right. At least on the 15/30 minute time frame.

Edited February 24, 2012 by Steveg

[KelvinHand]

Yes. A (very) flat EURUSD Asian session (thus far) and downward pointing divergence suggest you are right.

 

Are you sure ?

When price in a consolidation, what use of divergence to tell you ?

[mtuppers]

People talked about forex being a $4trillion-a-day marketplace, so if "market makers" are not in control, how do we explain why prices can be held so tightly, not ALLOWED to move up, not ALLOWED to move down and kept in tight range at will.

 

this is fractional disparity at best. EU and GU are held flat, using EUR/GBP, while "they" worked the crosses EJ and GJ using USD/JPY. if forex is an international, unregulated, biggest transactional market ever, then how come buyers and sellers can be controlled in such a manipulated manner?

 

because people are feared on US even it is recovery but not that stable. for EU still have some concern.

[Steveg]

Ianfoster. That's a good (rhetorical) question. I dont have the answer. Similarly, I haven't seen any convincing evidence that the market makers are able to exercise such tight control or manipulation of the markets.

[Steveg]

Are you sure ?

When price in a consolidation, what use of divergence to tell you ?

 

I see it on MACD and other indicators (e.g. MFI, CCI). A caution is whether some indicators may decrease in amplitude on their own when there is little price action. I have heard of that, but it is beyond my knowledge.

[Steveg]

because people are feared on US even it is recovery but not that stable. for EU still have some concern.

 

Sometimes basic fundamental knowledge, as you suggest, is the more sound explanation. Two countervailing scenarios are unfolding at this time. One is that there has been an accepted fix to the Greek crisis (for the time being). The other is that the U.S. market shows continued signs of improvement. One could theorize that EUR is now in a better position to increase as fear of a Greek collapse is averted thus taking downward pressure off of the EUR. At this point the two markets could be in balance. That is consistent with what we previously witnssed as a (gradually) rounding top in EURUSD, a reversal of sentiment in favor of EUR, and now a seemingly balanced market. There may be other ways to verify this scenario. I haven't tried. Though there could be a reversal to the downside on a short time frame, it is also conceivable that the market can stay relatively flat. We will soon see.

Edited February 24, 2012 by Steveg

[Steveg]

Ianfoster: Of course what you say is true about fundamental analysis, particularly after-the-fact. However, it doesn't prove market maker manipulation. Much the same could be said about after-the-fact technical analysis.