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I open this new threat about this "new" vision about trading.

There are 2 web site with this, but the information is short and confuse.

My idea is share experience and concepts about OF.

The web place are:

 

hxxp://www.darkstarforex.com/Home.aspx

(who start in some forums and later delete all- Now selling his book)

and

hxxp://orderflowforex.com/

(who starting learn form the fisrt and later open his own site)

 

They explain Order Flow is create from Balance-Imbalance orders ans some price.

They move the price

Price create a pattern later.

All participation are welcome.

Edited by successlife
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I stay in Webminar in

hxxp://orderflowforex.com/

But realy he trade using zones and nothing more- the first 2 trade losing-

 

Sorry I was confuse.

I stay in webminar is the other site

www.orderflowedge.com

He use Range bar, use R/S lines - He dont use real order flow or level of vol or options level.

The 2 trades at open loses money.

Personaly I dont like thus guy.

 

Later I post a link for volume trade and zones (free) every day.

And resume about this type of entries.

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Vol trade

 

Volume trade and options levels are (at least) part of Order Flow Trading.

1- Volume levels

When big money or MM need to enter or get out of the market need use areas with big volume.

Becuase if not they cant without big change in price.

You can use Market Profile with vol calcualtion (not TPO) or you can use software free and site where provider this data daily without cost.

Bellow I post a chart lines with this data.

In another post I explain what line means.

But you can see big relation of the maket top and bot with this lnes

 

2- Options level mean the same.

A big block of options orders and options barrires (mean options what active in case or the price reach some zone) are stop zones.

As well zones of stop hunt happend.

The same site post every day this level for free.

 

http://www.successlife.org/vol1.jpg

(vol levels)

 

http://www.successlife.org/op1.jpg

(options levels call and put)

Edited by successlife
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How and where

 

Volume trade and options levels are (at least) part of Order Flow Trading.

1- Volume levels

When big money or MM need to enter or get out of the market need use areas with big volume.

Becuase if not they cant without big change in price.

You can use Market Profile with vol calcualtion (not TPO) or you can use software free and site where provider this data daily without cost.

Bellow I post a chart lines with this data.

In another post I explain what line means.

But you can see big relation of the maket top and bot with this lnes

 

2- Options level mean the same.

A big block of options orders and options barrires (mean options what active in case or the price reach some zone) are stop zones.

As well zones of stop hunt happend.

The same site post every day this level for free.

 

http://www.successlife.org/vol1.jpg

(vol levels)

 

http://www.successlife.org/op1.jpg

(options levels call and put)

 

Ok fisrt go here

http://trading-evolution.com/forum/portal.php

(free website)

Explore and go bellow where you have access to trading forum and download indicators for free.

Second read careful instruction about put in mt4, becuase you need to download files every day in the night or before market open,

And you need create some folders in mt4.

Change setup for more clear color or wide of lines.

Read about simbols in the same place.

 

My trading system are (for now)

Use this zone as real S/R and wait for trap or stop hunt.

Edited by successlife
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HI successlife,

I downloaded the options levels indicator from the site you mentioned. I do not understand what all the levels are. What are majors levels and key zone. How the guys come out with these number and how do we use them?

By the way what do the Volume levels plot as well? we need to understand what they mean before we can properly use them. Thanks you in advance!

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HI successlife,

I downloaded the options levels indicator from the site you mentioned. I do not understand what all the levels are. What are majors levels and key zone. How the guys come out with these number and how do we use them?

By the way what do the Volume levels plot as well? we need to understand what they mean before we can properly use them. Thanks you in advance!

 

Ok, let me help.

Fisrt of all you need to understand what this lines are.

Vol levels are lines where yesterday , the day before, the week, the month and the total contract have big zones of vol.

Mean vol at price.

Why ? becuase MM or big money use this zones for enter or get out the market.

This indacator (lines) show one color (configurable) for one of this.

 

Options Levels show where (at price) exist big block of options to strike price.

The idea is........ The traders try reject this zones, avoid the execution of this big blocks.

Both are "posible" zones of R/S

Both are zones where posible big money take action.

 

TIME FRAME this signal are more valid in 1H time frame

I use 2 chart.

In one I put optins level and in the other I use Vol level

see this (you can change color and wide of lines) , you can use bar or candle.

 

About histogram.

Only works with special simbols, in my case sp500 donr works fine.

But is the same of vol level.

Histogram = market profile = vol zones

In fact if you put in the same chart you can see the vol lines = POC (point of control of MP)

 

http://www.successlife.org/cv1.jpg

 

 

Left side = Vol lines ( black yesterday) , etc , etc, etc

Right side = options levels

Edited by successlife
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More about OF

 

Trade by the Book: A Guide to Reading Order Flow

By Kristina Zurla Landgraf • Mar 1st, 2011 • Category: Educational, Trader Viewpoints

by Jack Broz

 

The more time I spend working with new traders, the clearer it becomes to me that what these traders are missing in their quest to become profitable is the ability to read order flow. Often times, I find that these traders know more about technical analysis than professional traders who have been making a living in the pits or on the screen for 10, 15, or even 20 years. If you use technical analysis to determine entry points for trades, you probably have found that many, many times, as soon as you get long – the market breaks. Or, no sooner do you get short – and the market rallies. Or, you enter a trade, and just watch the market chop around your entry price for several minutes. (There’s no reward in that trade either). How about exiting trades? How many times have you just gotten out of a position – and the market immediately races your way several more ticks?

 

Now, rest assured that these same things also happen to professional traders; however, they happen to the novice trader so often that the trader finds it difficult to become profitable. I propose that what the novice trader is missing is a correct gauge of the order flow, that is, what the buyers and sellers in the market are doing. I’ve heard many traders refer to what I’m discussing as “timing” as in, “I had the right idea, but my timing was off.” It’s the same thing; a trader who can correctly read the flow of bids and offers into the marketplace will be better able to time his trade entries and exits.

 

Read all article here

http://www.letstalkfutures.com/2011/03/01/trade-by-the-book-a-guide-to-reading-order-flow/

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Order-Flow Analysis

Within the academic literature, order-flow analysis is typically referred to

as “microstructure” analysis. The term microstructure comes from the field of

microstructure finance, which is concerned with, among other things, the role

that order flow plays in impounding information in price. Unlike macro models of

exchange rates, which assume that all traders share the same information and

beliefs, microstructure models recognize that individuals use different information

in forming their beliefs. In a context where individuals use different information

to form their beliefs, the market needs a means of measuring those beliefs.

Order flow plays this role. In these models, it is precisely when a trader’s beliefs

differ from the market enough to put money on the table—a trade—that those

beliefs warrant counting. Think of the orders like votes. The market performs the

service of tallying the order-flow votes, and setting the market price on the basis

of the tally.

What type of information is the order flow conveying? (Or, if you prefer:

What is driving the order flow?) This is the right question—order flow is a

proximate cause, not an underlying cause. There are many examples of dispersed

information that needs to be aggregated for pricing assets: differential interpretation

of news, shocks to hedging demands, shocks to liquidity demands, timevarying

risk tolerances (of financial institutions, for example), and so on. Empirically,

we have not determined conclusively which of these information types are

the most important. What we do now know is that order flow is important for

focuses on the complementarity between fundamental and order-flow analysis, there

is also an emerging complementarity between technical and order-flow analysis. Osler (2001) in

particular makes this case. Using data on stop-loss and take-profit orders in FX, she shows that

clustering of these orders at particular prices helps to explain two familiar predictions from technical

analysis, namely that (1) trends tend to be reversed at support and resistance levels and (2) trends tend

to gain momentum if support and resistance levels are breached.4

“how” exchange rates are determined—it is the transmission mechanism.

 

Now

that we know how, we are in a better position to learn “why.” 5

Implicit in the last paragraph is the point that fundamental analysis and

order-flow analysis differ in terms of research strategy. Order-flow analysis

starts from the meeting of demand and supply and proceeds to identify the (more)

exogenous variables behind that order flow. Going to the “micro source” provides

exchange-rate theory with much needed empirical guidance.6 A simple strategy

that has already made progress along these lines is based on our ability to break

order flow into parts. (That it can be decomposed is one of its nice properties.)

One can test whether all parts of the aggregate order flow have the same price

impact. They do not: the price impact of FX orders from financial institutions

(e.g., mutual funds and hedge funds) is significantly higher than the price impact

of orders from non-financial corporations (Lyons 2001). This suggests that order

flow is not just undifferentiated demand. Rather, the orders of some participants

are more informative than the orders of others. Analyzing order flow’s parts

illuminates the information structure underlying this market.

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Look at your chart and look at it where are stops where dealers might push the price to stops can also be takeprofits of other traders or buy stops sell stops etc. Price is always look for order liquidity. It is a hungry bastard price and goes where the moest orders are especially when the liquidity drys up if there are less market orders. Keep it simple takes sometime to grasp in your head but look differetn at you chart then plotting every indicator 100s of lines etc on it look at the price and where it had strong reactions before also look when price isvacuum etc
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Fisrt , thanks to all for share ideas.

I know "order Flow" is not easy, becuase inside of this, exist many thing.

Like a GDP, Rates, Central Bank, Dealers, News, Traps, MM, Interbank transfers, Report in diferent countries.

One first questions are... Why exist zones with high volume and other with less ?

Well,. I belive numbers in price are not the reason.

Perception in price (expesive or cheap) in people make trader enter into the market.

They looking for profit with some "imbalance" (perception-price)

If after we go into the market, no one take action, the price cant change.

For profit or loses, another traders need to enter after us.

We need zones where exist many trades looking for take profit, go in, go outside, trap, etc, etc.

Take action zones are the name of the game.

If I ready to buy a big block of shares or contract I need DONT pay more and more expensive price

I need buy where BIG amounts of sellers are.

My buy is cover int his way.

The other side is the same for sell.

Climatic buy candle is where a lot of traders buy and a big sellers exist ready to go outside the market and reverse.

They sell at the top- They cover this.

 

Im working now for understand another leg of Order Flow, the order book.

I call reuters and next week i recive a plataform where I can will see this.

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The Stucture of the Forex Market

 

copy from free blog

Object = Learn more about Forex Market

Original posted in

http://www.darkstarforex.com/Home.aspx

 

---------------

Order Flow Trading Blog The Stucture of the Forex Market

Posted @ 4/13/2011 12:00 AM By admin admin

Posted in [Classic Forum Posts] | 0 Comments

Aug 26, 2006

 

There has been much discussion of late regarding broker spreads and liquidity. Many assumptions are being made about why spreads are widened during news time that are built on an incomplete knowledge of the architecture of the forex market in general. The purpose of this article is to dissect the market and hopefully shed some light on the situation so that a more rational and productive discussion can be undertaken by the Forex Factory members.

 

We will begin with an explanation of the purpose of the Forex market and how it is utilized by its primary participants, expand into the structure and operation of the market, and conclude with the implications of this information for speculators. With that having been said, let us begin.

 

Unlike the various bond and equity markets, the Forex market is not generally utilized as an investment medium. While speculation has a critical role in its proper function, the lion’s share of Forex transactions are done as a function of international business.

 

The guy who buys a shiny new Eclipse more then likely will pay for it with US Dollars. Unfortunately Mitsubishi’s factory workers in Japan need to get their paychecks denominated in Yen, so at some point a conversion needs to be made. When one considers that companies like Exxon, Boeing, Sony, Dell, Honda, and thousands of other international businesses move nearly every dollar, real, yen, rubble, pound, and euro they make in a foreign country through the Forex market, it isn’t hard to understand how insignificant the speculative presence is; even in a $2tril per day market.

 

By and large, businesses don’t much care about the intricacies of exchange rates, they just want to make and sell their products. As a central repository of a company’s money, it was only natural that the banks would be the facilitators of these transactions. In the old days it was easy enough for a bank to call a foreign bank (or a foreign branch of ones own bank) and swap the stockpiles of currency each had accumulated from their many customers.

 

Just as any business would, the banks bought the foreign currency at one rate and marked it up before selling it to the customer. With that the foreign exchange spread was born. This was (and still is) a reasonable cost of doing business. Mitsubishi can pay its customers and the banks make a nice little profit for the hassle and risks associated with moving around the currency.

 

As a byproduct of transacting all this business, bank traders developed the ability to speculate on the future of currency rates. Utilizing a better understanding of the market, a bank could quote a business a spread on the current rate but hold off hedging until a better one came along. This process allowed the banks to expand their net income dramatically. The unfortunate consequence was that liquidity was redistributed in a way that made certain transactions impossible to complete.

 

It was for this reason and this reason alone that the market was eventually opened up to non-bank participants. The banks wanted more orders in the market so that a) they could profit from the less experienced participants, and b) the less experienced participants could provide a better liquidity distribution for execution of international business hedge orders. Initially only megacap hedge funds (such as Soros’s and others) were permitted, but it has since grown to include the retail brokerages and ECNs.

 

Market Structure:

 

Now that we have established why the market exists, let’s take a look at how the transactions are facilitated:

 

The top tier of the Forex market is transacted on what is collectively known as the Interbank. Contrary to popular belief the Interbank is not an exchange; it is a collection of communication agreements between the world’s largest money center banks.

 

To understand the structure of the Interbank market, it may be easier to grasp by way of analogy. Consider that in an office (or maybe even someone’s home) there are multiple computers connected via a network cable. Each computer operates independently of the others until it needs a resource that another computer possesses. At that point it will contact the other computer and request access to the necessary resource. If the computer is working properly and its owner has given the requestor authorization to do so, the resource can be accessed and the initiating computers request can be fulfilled. By substituting computers for banks and resources for currency, you can easily grasp the relationships that exist on the Interbank.

 

Anyone who has ever tried to find resources on a computer network without a server can appreciate how difficult it can be to keep track of who has what resources. The same issue exists on the Interbank market with regard to prices and currency inventory. A bank in Singapore may only rarely transact business with a company that needs to exchange some Brazilian Real and it can be very difficult to establish what a proper exchange rate should be. It is for this purpose that EBS and Reuters (hereafter EBS) established their services.

 

Layered on top (in a manner of speaking) of the Interbank communication links, the EBS service enables banks to see how much and at what prices all the Interbank members are willing to transact. Pains should be taken to express that EBS is not a market or a market maker; it is an application used to see bids and offers from the various banks.

 

The second tier of the market exists essential within each bank. By calling your local Bank of America branch you can exchange any foreign currency you would like. More then likely they will just move some excess currency from one branch to another. Since this is a micro-exchange with a single counterparty, you are basically at their mercy as to what exchange rate they will quote you. Your choice is to accept their offer or shop a different bank. Everyone who trades the forex market should visit their bank at least once to get a few quotes. It would be very enlightening to see how lucrative these transactions really are.

 

Branching off of this second tier is the third tier retail market. When brokers like Oanda, Forex.com, FXCM, etc. desire to establish a retail operation the first thing they need is a liquidity provider. Nine in ten of these brokers will sign an agreement with just one bank. This bank will agree to provide liquidity if and only if they can hedge it on EBS inclusive of their desired spread. Because the volume will be significantly higher a single bank patron will transact, the spreads will be much more competitive. By no means should it be expected these tier 3 providers will be quoted precisely what exists on the Interbank. Remember the bank is in the business of collecting spreads and no agreement is going to suspend that priority.

 

Retail forex is almost akin to running a casino. The majority of its participants have zero understanding how to trade effectively and as a result are consistent losers. The spread system combined with a standard probability distribution of returns gives the broker a built in house advantage of a few percentage points. As a result, they have all built internal order matching systems that play one loser off against a winner and collect the spread. On the occasions when disequilibrium exists within the internal order book, the broker hedges any exposure with their tier 2 liquidity provider.

 

As bad as this may sound, there are some significant advantages for speculators that deal with them. Because it is an internal order book, many features can be provided which are otherwise unavailable through other means. Non-standard contract sizes, high leverage on tiny account balances, and the ability to transact in a commission free environment are just a few of them…

 

An ECN operates similar to a Tier 2 bank, but still exists on the third tier. An ECN will generally establish agreements with several tier 2 banks for liquidity. However instead of matching orders internally, it will just pass through the quotes from the banks, as is, to be traded on. It’s sort of an EBS for little guys. There are many advantages to the model, but it is still not the Interbank. The banks are going to make their spread or their not go to waste their time. Depending on the bank this will take the form of price shading or widened spreads depending on market conditions. The ECN, for its trouble, collects a commission on each transaction.

 

Aside from the commission factor, there are some other disadvantages a speculator should consider before making the leap to an ECN. Most offer much lower leverage and only allow full lot transactions. During certain market conditions, the banks may also pull their liquidity leaving traders without an opportunity to enter or exit positions at their desired price.

 

Trade Mechanics:

 

It is convenient to believe that in a $2tril per day market there is always enough liquidity to do what needs to be done. Unfortunately belief does not negate the reality that for every buyer there MUST be a seller or no transaction can occur. When an order is too large to transact at the current price, the price moves to the point where open interest is abundant enough to cover it. Every time you see price move a single pip, it means that an order was executed that consumed (or otherwise removed) the open interest at the current price. There is no other way that prices can move.

 

As we covered earlier, each bank lists on EBS how much and at what price they are willing to transact a currency. It is important to note that no Interbank participant is under any obligation to make a transaction if they do not feel it is in their best interest. There are no “market makers” on the Interbank; only speculators and hedgers.

 

Looking at an ECN platform or Level II data on the stock market, one can get a feel for what the orders on EBS look like. The following is a sample representation:

 

You’ll notice that there is open interest (Level II Vol figures) of various sizes at different price points. Each one of those units represents existing limit orders and in this example, each unit is $1mil in currency.

 

 

 

Using this information, if a market sell order was placed for 38.4mil, the spread would instantly widen from 2.5 pips to 4.5 pips because there would no longer be any orders between 1.56300 and 1.56345. No broker, market maker, bank, or thief in the night widened the spread; it was the natural byproduct of the order that was placed. If no additional orders entered the market, the spread would remain this large forever. Fortunately, someone somewhere will deem a price point between those 2 figures an appropriate opportunity to do something and place an order. That order will either consume more interest or add to it, depending whether it is a market or limit order respectively.

 

What would have happened if someone placed a market sell order for 2mil just 1 millisecond after that 38.4 mil order hit? They would have been filled at 1.5630 Why were they “slipped”? Because there was no one to take the other side of the transaction at 1.56320 any longer. Again, nobody was out screwing the trader; it was the natural byproduct of the order flow.

 

A more interesting question is, what would happen if all the listed orders where suddenly canceled? The spread would widen to a point at which there were existing bids and offers. That may be 5,7,9, or even 100 pips; it is going to widen to whatever the difference between a bid and an offer are. Notice that nobody came in and “set” the spread, they just refused to transact at anything between it.

 

Nothing can be done to force orders into existence that don’t exist. Regardless what market is being examined or what broker is facilitating transactions, it is impossible to avoid spreads and slippage. They are a fact of life in the realm of trading.

 

Implications for speculators:

 

Trading has been characterized as a zero sum game, and rightly so. If trader A sells a security to trader B and the price goes up, trader A lost money that they otherwise could have made. If it goes down, Trader A made money from trader B’s mistake. Even in a huge market like the Forex, each transaction must have a buyer and a seller to make a trade and one of them is going to lose. In the general realm of trading, this is materially irrelevant to each participant. But there are certain situations where it becomes of significant importance. One of those situations is a news event.

 

Much has been made of late about how it is immoral, illegal, or downright evil for a broker, bank, or other liquidity provider to withdraw their order (increasing the spread) and slip orders (as though it was a conscious decision on their part to do so) more then normal during these events. These things occur for very specific reasons which have nothing to do with screwing anyone. Let us examine why:

 

Leading up to an economic report for example, certain traders will enter into positions expecting the news to go a certain way. As the event becomes immanent, the banks on the Interbank will remove their speculative orders for fear of taking unnecessary losses. Technical traders will pull their orders as well since it is common practice for them to avoid the news. Hedge funds and other macro traders are either already positioned or waiting until after the news hits to make decisions dependent on the result.

 

Knowing what we now know, where is the liquidity necessary to maintain a tight spread coming from?

 

Moving down the food chain to Tier 2; a bank will only provide liquidity to an ECN or retail broker if they can instantly hedge (plus their requisite spread) the positions on Interbank. If the Interbank spreads are widening due to lower liquidity, the bank is going to have to widen the spreads on the downstream players as well.

 

At tier 3 the ECN’s are simply passing the banks offers on, so spreads widen up to their customers. The retailers that guarantee spreads of 2 to 5 pips have just opened a gaping hole in their risk profile since they can no longer hedge their net exposure (ever wonder why they always seem to shut down or requote until its over?). The variable spread retailers in turn open up their spreads to match what is happening at the bank or they run into the same problems fixed spreads broker are dealing with.

 

Now think about this situation for a second. What is going to happen when a number misses expectations? How many traders going into the event with positions chose wrong and need to get out ASAP? How many hedge funds are going to instantly drop their macro orders? How many retail traders’ straddle orders just executed? How many of them were waiting to hear a miss and executed market orders?

 

With the technical traders on the sidelines, who is going to be ****** enough to take the other side of all these orders?

 

The answer is no one. Between 1 and 5 seconds after the news hits it is a purely a 1 way market. That big long pin bar that occurs is a grand total of 2 prices; the one before the news hit and the one after. The 10, 20, or 30 pips between them is called a gap.

 

Is it any wonder that slippage is in evidence at this time?

 

Conclusions:

 

Each tier of the Forex market has its own inherent advantages and disadvantages. Depending on your priorities you have to make a choice between what restrictions you can live with and those you cant. Unfortunately, you can’t always get what you want.

 

By focusing on slippage and spreads, which are the natural byproduct of order flow, one is not only pursuing a futile ideal, they are passing up an enormous opportunity to capitalize on true inefficiencies. News events are one of the few times where a large number of players are positioned inappropriately and it is fairly easy to profit from their foolishness. If a trader truly wants to make the leap to the next level of profitability they should be spending their time figuring out how identify these positions and trading with the goal of capturing the price movement they inevitably will cause.

 

Nobody is going to make the argument that a broker is a trader’s best friend, but they still provide a valuable service and should be compensated for their efforts. By accepting a broker for what it is and learning how to work within the limitations of the relationship, traders have access to a world of opportunity that they otherwise could never dream of capturing. Let us all remember that simple truth.

Edited by successlife
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successlife,

Thanks for your kind reply. How do you put the Vol levels on the Emini S&P chart. i cant load the Vol levels on the Emini chart. And the options levels don't draw the key zones (gray-shaded area) for the Emini chart as well. I think problem lies with the symbol. Thanks

 

Yes, with no forex pairs you need to write the code in set-up

In my case sp500 simbols need to use this

(see image)

 

http://www.successlife.org/set1.jpg

 

Key zones are not working fine.

I ask in the forum, but for now, no news.

Only you can see a line in key zones, in my case I put over a personal line for see better.

Edited by successlife
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Hi interesting thread u have,can this work on eu forex.Pls show some example

 

Yes, thanks.

Fisrt this was desing for forex, more than other stocks or eft.

Check site of the creator of this lines and read more about what contract are be able.

Ex, for options only works with USD pairs, becuase they have options.

How I use ?

Well Im nor a master only are working with this information.

I use as zones of S/R every day.

This zone are with high volume and is "posible" many traders enter or get out.

The options zones are the same, becuase exist big block ready to excersice.

With this lines price in mind and looking for trap traders or stop hunts.

Is nothing happend = do nothing

Is exist confirmation os USE of this zone I take a trade.

Take a look with this example.

In the circle you can see "posible" zone of S.

You can see the stop hunt and the trap short traders.

Then you can go long.

 

http://successlife.org/12-12.jpg

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Realy good article about EU

 

European Debt Crisis – Expanded Version

 

The global economy experienced a boom during the years of 2005-2007. Many countries around the world experienced this boom. Even countries in Europe to an extent. An economic boom can produce temporary surging revenue for the federal governments of the European nations. And what do governments love to do? Spend money!

 

Almost all countries tend to run some form of budget deficit, whether large or small. So when you see the Unites States spending billions of dollars or hundreds of billions of dollars, they don’t actually have the money on hand. They don’t have the cash to pay for it. So if they don’t have the cash to pay for it, and they still want to spend the money, they will go and borrow it.

 

Now when a country wants to borrow money, they aren’t going to go ask for a traditional bank loan. Instead the country is going to issue a financial instrument called bonds.

 

Read complete article here....

http://orderflowforex.com/2011/12/european-debt-crisis-part-2/

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