(REQ) H3dgeH0g Trading Course

[⭐ c0py]

conglo started it :)

 

wtf happened here? this place is turning into a playground and not a place for adult discussion.

[soundfx]

Hi guys,

 

I've investigated this system a bit further as it does seem to have some merits.

 

Herman mentioned "recovery trades" earlier, which are clearly explained in this introductory video:

 

http://www.viddler.com/explore/happymom/videos/17/

 

When recovery trades are being run, we're making the assumption that if our stop is blown then price will continue in that direction with enough momentum to cover at least the average daily range (ADR) again. Stops are set at 150 pips because this is a rough average of the ADR for all pairs traded.

 

Say we have identified two areas of price regression line (trend line) convergence one at 48 pips higher than the current price and one at 35 pips lower than the current price.

 

Stop on each trade will be 150 pips = 300 in total (hence we need to be careful not to trade with big lots with huge stops like this especially if we're trading several pairs at the same time) and max. gain will be 48+35=83 if all goes according to plan (which it does most of the time reportedly).

 

If price rises and hits our 48 target then we have 48 pips in the bag and a Short trade running at -48, if price carries on rising and our stop gets blown at -150 then we're down -102. Either we can accept this as there's a high percentage probability of both trades hitting their target, so it will only need 1 or 2 more trades to bring us back from that loss. Alternatively, we can initiate a recovery trade which will trade long with a target of 150 pips and (I assume) stop of 150 pips as soon as we get stopped out on the original short trade.

 

Recovery trades we're told have a good success rate too, so the likely outcome is 48 - 150 + 150 giving 48 pips net.

 

All pairs are considered for trading, so I assume that there's some "cherry picking" going on here where pairs are chosen only where there are clear regression/trend line intersections. In a way this makes sense, because for us to get these intersections price can't be trending strongly and this system is designed for ranging markets or swing markets with relatively small swings.

 

Here's an indicator I spotted which we could potentially use to automatically draw these regression/trend lines:

 

http://codebase.mql4.com/3816

[jim123]

Thank you all for the information provided thus far.

 

Here is the latest post copied directly from the Forex 'Hedge Hog' Blog (interestingly, it doesn't actually appear on the blog - I only happened to find it via the RSS feed). I hope it proves helpful anyway.

 

--------------------------------------

Answering a Prospective Student

--------------------------------------

{see my reply below -- Gordon]

 

 

Hello Gordon,

 

My name is James and I have been looking at your Hedge Hog strategy sales page over the last 2 days and it has certainly sparked my interest. But I do have a question for you regarding the "hedge" aspect of your system. I can not for the life of me see any benefit to opening a simultaneous buy and sell in the same instrument at the same time. Both open trades will cancel each other out and leave you with a slight over all loss due to spread. Mathematically I can not see any other outcome other than a net loss you are long and short at the same time.

 

I can see the benefit if you merely open one buy and one sell at point "A", and price then rises to point "B" above point "A" and then drops to point "C" below point "A", and thus giving you a profit for both orders. If you had a statistical edge that price is most likely to hit both "B" and "C" at some point after point "A" (but you don't know in which order), then having an open buy and sell order at the same time makes sense. However you hinted on your site that when one order is stopped out for a loss, you immediately open a new order in the opposite direction in an attempt to rescue the loss. And thus it sounds like you will constantly have simultaneous buy and sell orders in the market all the time. If this is the case, surely the net result will always be zero, minus the cost of the spread.

 

If you have an edge in terms of hitting a profit target more than 50% of the time, wouldn't it be more profitable to take only one trade at a time? The "hedge" as you describe it will clearly limit your downside losses to only the spread each time, but it also completely erases any profit.

 

I am sure I am misunderstanding something here and have likely interpreted your explanation on your site incorrectly, and would be very grateful if you could find the time to clarify and put me on the right track before I make a decision as to whether your webinar is going to be worth it for me. I am an experienced trader though sadly not a profitable one due to my emotions always pushing me to cut my wins early, lol. Your style of trading appeals to me a great deal but at the moment I can not understand the value of the hedge as I understad your meaning.

 

Thank you very much for any time you can spare to answering my questions.

 

Kind regards

James

___

 

Hello, James

 

I genuinely appreciate your inquiry. I an her the wheels turning and smell the smoke from here; -)

 

I'm going to give you a free example of the power of bidirectional trading, just one of the many variations I teach. This will be a bit long, so forgive me.

 

First, let's start with a 3x grid that looks like this:

 

------------------------------- B3

------------------------------- B2

------------------------------- B1

================= M = Market price

------------------------------- S1

------------------------------- S2

------------------------------- S3

 

Let's stipulate that it doesn't matter in the least what the spacing is in pips between each grid (20 pips, 50 pips, whatever). We'll just call the space 'x'.

 

Let's start with the Buy side.

 

I place a Buy order at M with a take profit (TP) at B1 and a stop loss (SL ) at S3. My TP = x and my SL = -3x, therefore my risk:reward ratio is 3:1.

 

Now, I do the same thing on the Sell side. I sell at M with a TP at S1 and and SL at B3.

 

The pattern will end in one of two ways only. If price moves to the outside of the pattern (say, to the top) the Buy gets +1x and the Sell loses -1X, for a net loss of (-2x).

 

If price touches both TPs (B1 and S1) before touching either boundary (B3 or S3), I end up with +1x +1x = +2x.

 

Therefore, I win +2x when a run wins and I lose -2x when a run loses, so my risk:reward collapses to 1:1.

 

Now, my expectation of profit will purely be a function of the raw % Win:% Loss ratio. I can win as few as 51% of all runs and still make money. In the real world, taking the spread into consideration, I need 60% winning trades.

 

My own experience is that well over 75% wins occur due to the sheer oscillatory nature of price action.

 

Now, let's have some more fun.

 

Let's add a conditional order: an entry buy stop (EBS) at B2 with a TP at B3 and a SL at S1. Likewise, let's add an entry sell stop (ESS) at S2 with a TP at S3 and a SL at B1.

 

However, let's DOUBLE the positions size on both the EBS and ESS orders.

 

Here's the grid repeated.

 

------------------------------- B3

------------------------------- B2 ... EBS

------------------------------- B1

================= M = Market price

------------------------------- S1

------------------------------- S2 ... ESS

------------------------------- S3

 

The rule now is that a runs ends when price has touched either of the outside boundaries.

 

Let's say price touches both B1 and S1 (in either order) and we get +2x. With the market Buy and Sell orders closed with a profit, both of their stop losses have now been removed from the platform.

 

However, the EBS and ESS orders are still sitting there, waiting in the wings. Sooner or later one of them will be touched and triggered (I call these the Extension trade or 'EXT' for short).

 

If the EXT trades wins we get +2x because it was a DOUBLE order.

 

Now our profit for the entire run is +1x +1x +2x = +4x.

 

Let's say price does NOT touch both B1 and S1 but instead heads right to either boundary. Let's use the Buy side as our example.

 

On the way north we get a win (+1x) at B1, the EBS triggered in long at B2 with a win at B3 (for +2x) and a loss of the market Sell order at B3 (-3x).

 

Add them up and we get +1x +2x -3x = ZERO!

 

So now our risk:reward is 0x / +4x ... I don't even know what to call that.

 

Basically, there isn't any more risk

 

How do like them apples!? (Heh)

 

So when we win we get +4x and when we lose we get zero.

 

Hey, I'll take zero all day long.

 

Now, in the real world there will always be a spread to pay. And the smaller the grid size the greater the spread will represent as a percentage of 'x' (the grid size). With a larger grid, say 40 pips, it becomes almost negligible.

 

And keep in mind that I can put on one of these setups in about 3 minutes, less if I've had too much coffee.

 

So in summation, you can see there are many advantages to true bidirectional trading which I assert is NOT the same as hedging as that strategy is usually thought to be.

 

In a recent student video update I dubbed my latest enhancement the Quantum Hog since there are so many similarities between bidirectional trading and quantum physics, not the least of which is freedom from mental entanglement! (sorry)

 

Well, I hope this helped give you some insight into the Hedge Hog. He may be ugly, but he's not as dumb as he looks.

 

Cheers!

 

Gordon Philips

Edited June 1, 2011 by jim123
Added information

[swandro]

James

 

Unless I am mistaken (I hope I am!), he has failed to mention one losing scenario. What if the price hits B1 (we get +X1), then it hits B2 so we enter the double-size long trade, but THEN it falls off and hits the S1 stop-loss.

 

What we now have is +1 from the long trade, +1 from the short trade (because our short has hit S1 target), but we have lost -6 (because our long EBS failed and was double-size.

 

I make that -4. This may not happen often, perhaps it does, but he singularly rules out the possibility because he says that you can only get zero loss or +4.

 

As I say, I may have misunderstood. If you agree with me though, maybe you can email him for clarification.

[fxeasy5]

James

 

Unless I am mistaken (I hope I am!), he has failed to mention one losing scenario. What if the price hits B1 (we get +X1), then it hits B2 so we enter the double-size long trade, but THEN it falls off and hits the S1 stop-loss.

 

What we now have is +1 from the long trade, +1 from the short trade (because our short has hit S1 target), but we have lost -6 (because our long EBS failed and was double-size.

 

I make that -4. This may not happen often, perhaps it does, but he singularly rules out the possibility because he says that you can only get zero loss or +4.

 

As I say, I may have misunderstood. If you agree with me though, maybe you can email him for clarification.

swandro ,

there might be even more scenarios.

We all have seen price whipsaw.

 

But since he is trading this thing for more than a year, he certainly has figured those scenarios out and still came out with profit if you look at his statements.

Edited June 1, 2011 by fxeasy5

[bravester10]

James

 

Unless I am mistaken (I hope I am!), he has failed to mention one losing scenario. What if the price hits B1 (we get +X1), then it hits B2 so we enter the double-size long trade, but THEN it falls off and hits the S1 stop-loss.

 

What we now have is +1 from the long trade, +1 from the short trade (because our short has hit S1 target), but we have lost -6 (because our long EBS failed and was double-size.

 

I make that -4. This may not happen often, perhaps it does, but he singularly rules out the possibility because he says that you can only get zero loss or +4.

 

As I say, I may have misunderstood. If you agree with me though, maybe you can email him for clarification.

 

 

 

Thats a very valid scenario. I think , unless there is a good explanation to support that scenario... the -4x scenario will kill this system. Price whipsaws quite a bit and hence it is very possible that this -4x situation will happen. Unless his price progression lines give one very profitable targets that would cause the 0x : 4x RR scenario, i think the -4x is something he really overlooked.

 

James, if you could please email him this question and let us know what he replies, we would all appreciate it. Thanks.

Edited June 5, 2011 by bravester10

[fxeasy5]

Will be interesting to see the author's actual empirical results on this.

The empirical results are on his website(s) and can be downloaded.

It is a very profitable system, long term.

 

He teaches more than one method and variations of methods depending on the trader, account size, preferences etc.

 

The main points are:

1. The entries must be good .... he teaches how to find those

----> win rate of both orders hitting TP is above 70 %

2. The StopLossRecovery method(s) have a win rate of over 70%

thus you end up with a very low percentage of the worst case scenario

and even for that he has solutions (and the basic recovery trades have same lotsize, no doubling of lotsizes). One of such a solution is to just accept the

loss and close the trade which does not hurt because you make many more Pips

with all of the winning trades so that the outcome is more profit than loss.

 

I will not comment much more because I would sound like a promoter.

 

I bought the system and signed a NonDisclosure agreement and I will definitely not break it.

It is a matter of ethics and most will understand this because the serious members here all

agree that the author of a truly profitable method deserves the money.

Only the scammers don´t deserve it and Gordon certainly is not a scammer.

 

Since I just bought the course, I cannot answer questions like "how much did you make already " or "how big is your drawdown", the only thing I can say is that I got more than I expected and there are literally hundreds of hours of support-webinars and stuff.

It will take me weeks to go through the material.

[juicyt]

I read on his blog that the worst case cenario only happened once in about 140trades. I just can't find where the blog is now.

[fxeasy5]

fxeasy5, if you like, we can swap pm and bounce ideas off each other as we both learn this method together.

Yes, very good idea.

Will send you a PM right away.

[juicyt]

On the STAR thread, the system was posted and then discussed and if people were happy with it, they then signed up and purchased his book and membership. I liked it this way and re-signed up also (I had purchased it a while back after getting it free as I believed even though I could not work it out, it was obvious he had good intentions and was onto something) it'd be good if that same spirit was on this thread.

 

Juicyt

[jim123]

I should clarify that I did not write the email or questions that I posted along with Gordon's reply - they came from somebody else ("James") enquiring about the Hedge Hog system; I merely stumbled across the entire post in the RSS feed from the Hedge Hog blog.

 

 

Thats a very valid scenario. I think , unless there is a good explanation to support that scenario... the -4x scenario will kill this system. Price whipsaws quite a bit and hence it is very possible that this -4x situation will happen. Unless his price progression lines give one very profitable targets that would cause the 0x : 4x RR scenario, i think the -4x is something he really overlooked.

 

James, if you could please email him this question and let us know what he replies, we would all appreciate it. Thanks.

[EasyMoney]

I took the hedge hog back in jan. And yes G.P. is a gentleman in every regard. Always timely is response and he sends out updates maybe every week or 2. I don't think you'll be disappointed one bit in your purchase.

 

OK, full disclosure. Like it or lump it.

 

I was interested enough in this that I purchased the method.

 

Part of the purchase agreement is a separate ND document which I have signed.

I would be dishonoring my agreement with the vendor if I share the method and I will not do that. He seems a gentleman, so I will not share it. Rules is rules.

I know that goes against the "spirit" of this forum, but there is a limit.

You don't like it, ban me or go f**k yourself.

"Gentlemans Honor" has to mean something somewhere.

 

So far the welcome and introduction to the course is beyond what I might have expected.

Much detail in terms of what the student should do in terms of preparation, etc.

Vendor asks with permission of student to share details of his/her trading history and experiences.

 

While I have not yet delved into the material as it is late here, my very first impression is quite positive.

Vendor seems quite sincere and dedicated. Hard to quantify, but I have some confidence in his sincerity. So far.

 

So, if I feel like it, time permitting, I will post my impressions and progress.

 

If this course delivers what it promises I think the price is cheap.

 

We'll see. I am probably as skeptical as most here, but you never know unless you give it a shot.

 

P.S.- Don't PM me and ask for a handout. You will end up on my permanent shitlist.

[EasyMoney]

I can't PM yet, so to fxeasy and dukeaugustus, add me to your growing list of HH'ers. As soon as I can PM I'll do so.

Who's ****** idea was it to keep people from pm'ing until they have 15 posts???? oy'vay

[bravester10]

I took the hedge hog back in jan. And yes G.P. is a gentleman in every regard. Always timely is response and he sends out updates maybe every week or 2. I don't think you'll be disappointed one bit in your purchase.

 

Hello EasyMoney,

As you have now used the HedgeHog system for quite a bit of time(6 month+), you would probably be the best person to provide us a very objective testimonial about the system. I think a lot of folks who are on the sidelines with this have almost the same concerns .... what kind of drawdown does it have, does it really work over the long term in both trending and ranging markets, what kind of results can one expect, is it as easy to learn and implement as the author seems to imply... We would appreciate a response to these and anything else that you could share with us that would help us make a decision one way or the other.

 

Regards

[EasyMoney]

Even in a strong trending market, does it move in a straight line?? NO, it always fluctuates up and down. DD isn't going to be applicable to you from my side. It's only relative to the one trading. DD doesn't bother me, and I only look at it on a trade by trade basis. I know what my average acct DD is, I know the max, and I know the min. But MY DD won't help you. If you loose more than 20% of your account, what do you do?? simple, STOP trading and analyze what the hell you did wrong. At least it's 20% for me.

Yes it works over the long term as well as the short term. It's just one method I use. and I must say I like it ALOT!!! Gordon is the best support individual I have found in this business. I think I paid too little for it :) but hey! Thats Gordon's fault.

 

 

Edit: My average drawdown PER TRADE is about 48%. And I only risk 2% MAX per trade. So to those who cant do math, thats 48% of 2%, not 48% of 100% of my account.

 

Hello EasyMoney,

As you have now used the HedgeHog system for quite a bit of time(6 month+), you would probably be the best person to provide us a very objective testimonial about the system. I think a lot of folks who are on the sidelines with this have almost the same concerns .... what kind of drawdown does it have, does it really work over the long term in both trending and ranging markets, what kind of results can one expect, is it as easy to learn and implement as the author seems to imply... We would appreciate a response to these and anything else that you could share with us that would help us make a decision one way or the other.

 

Regards

Edited June 9, 2011 by EasyMoney

[bravester10]

Thanks. Does this system work better with ranging or slow moving pairs(EURGBP,EURCHF etc) over the major pairs. Also, as GP claims, are you able to place a trade at anytime irrespective of market conditions with this system ? Also, if one were to trade this system full time, is it reasonable to expect atleast 10% a month(what kind of results did you see?). Thanks man.

 

 

BTW... i hope i am helping you get to your 15 posts with this :) . Thanks for your information.

Edited June 9, 2011 by bravester10

[EasyMoney]

Works not only on forex but equites, commodities, futures, and I bet options somehow too. I've placed trades at different times of the day, I work 2nd, so I place trades whenever I feel like looking. After awhile you get a feel for which charts are following the lines. On the ones that don't, move to the next pair. I feel it's definately reasonable to expect that, but remember everyone treats MM different, thats why only 5% win in this business. It's a mind game.

[bravester10]

Thanks guys, please come back every now and then and let us know your progress. Appreciated very much.

[napadad]

and another question, from another person that has no idea what all the various variations are....

Is it simple enough to know which variation of the main trade, loss recovery etc etc one should use BEFORE you enter the trade? I've seen too many systems where the author has retrospectively invented "variations" that work better, but you don't know until AFTER the trade that you "should" have used method C instead of method A etc etc...

 

Oh, and maybe because I am not a purchaser, I sent of a couple of quick questions, a couple of days ago... no response...

[fxeasy5]

Thanks. Does this system work better with ranging or slow moving pairs(EURGBP,EURCHF etc) over the major pairs. Also, as GP claims, are you able to place a trade at anytime irrespective of market conditions with this system ? Also, if one were to trade this system full time, is it reasonable to expect atleast 10% a month(what kind of results did you see?). Thanks man.

 

 

BTW... i hope i am helping you get to your 15 posts with this :) . Thanks for your information.

What to expect ?

Cannot be answered because depends on equity, leverage, personality of trader (how much DD is he able to accept),pairs, number of orders (lot-size) etc.

Anything between 1% monthly to 20% monthly or higher is possible.

 

I am coding EAs for the system to backtest different variations of TPs, SLs and SL-Recovery strategies, but since I am not very good in coding, it takes me a lot of time. With some variations there has to be housekeeping of the orders (cancel one hedge-order when a TP is hit) and for that an EA is perfect.

 

Gordon has his own software development company which of course uses his strategies and automates them. With one of his products an investment club is trading a pool of investor´s money and guess what ? An average of 24% monthly ROI is the result.

Not bad if you ask me.

 

Another thought:

is it an accident that you only read positive comments from buyers ?

 

PM me (or maybe one of the other buyers, but I can only speak for myself here) if you intend to buy the course, it might be of an advantage for you.

[xtclove]

well, i also bought this course. And so far testing it for a week. I'm logging the trades, so far so good. Yet, I still can't conclude anything.. If you have any questions you can PM me :).

[phoender]

What to expect ?

Cannot be answered because depends on equity, leverage, personality of trader (how much DD is he able to accept),pairs, number of orders (lot-size) etc.

Anything between 1% monthly to 20% monthly or higher is possible.

 

I am coding EAs for the system to backtest different variations of TPs, SLs and SL-Recovery strategies, but since I am not very good in coding, it takes me a lot of time. With some variations there has to be housekeeping of the orders (cancel one hedge-order when a TP is hit) and for that an EA is perfect.

 

Gordon has his own software development company which of course uses his strategies and automates them. With one of his products an investment club is trading a pool of investor´s money and guess what ? An average of 24% monthly ROI is the result.

Not bad if you ask me.

 

Another thought:

is it an accident that you only read positive comments from buyers ?

 

PM me (or maybe one of the other buyers, but I can only speak for myself here) if you intend to buy the course, it might be of an advantage for you.

 

Due to the PM restriction I'm (not yet) PM-able, so I'll try it this way. Is the method a manual method, i.e. discretionary? Or is it mechanical. Is it feasible for a somewhat beginner?

Edited June 10, 2011 by hermanhess
please dont mention email it attracts spam bots

[fxeasy5]

Due to the PM restriction I'm (not yet) PM-able, so I'll try it this way. Is the method a manual method, i.e. discretionary? Or is it mechanical. Is it feasible for a somewhat beginner?

It can be traded both ways.

There are variations.

The normal method is discretionary = finding an entry with TPs for long and short order.

From there it is mechanical, either you never touch the orders or you do housekeeping when one order hits TP (deleting the hedge-order) or you just leave the initial orders until they ran their course and there are other variations, you can invent your own too.

 

One variation is just mechanical, no thinking about correct entries.

Edited June 10, 2011 by fxeasy5

[EasyMoney]

I use it both ways. First I start out with the regression lines, then place my orders and walk away. I'm no coder, wish I were then I could set up all the variations for it. But I'm happy with my results of it. Nobody will come up with the same identical trades, but the results will be similar once the method is learned.

[EasyMoney]

Can't respond to PM's yet but the answer to both your last 2 questions are YES.

 

well, i also bought this course. And so far testing it for a week. I'm logging the trades, so far so good. Yet, I still can't conclude anything.. If you have any questions you can PM me :).