All About Commodity

[mynameisandhy]

The Increase Rate Of Exports Germany Recover Oil

 

Tuesday, December 11, 2012

 

Oil recovered from its lowest closing level in 3 weeks after reports Germany's exports rise beyond forecasts in October and China's record of the highest volume of crude oil last month. OPEC will meet this week to discuss oil output quota. Oil prices rose as much as 0.4% over the level of Germany's exports rose 0.3 percent from September, in which Germany is the largest oil consumer in the European Union. The level of China's import of crude oil rose to the highest level in six months in November as oil refining volume hit a record high, according to the General Administration of Customs. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is expected to hold oil production quota levels when it met on December 12 at a later date.

 

"The growth rate of the export sector is expected to be encouraging because Germany is contracting," said Andrey Kryuchenkov, analyst at VTB Capital in London. "Germany is the key driving force of the European economy."

[mynameisandhy]

OPEC To Keep Oil Production Quota

 

Wednesday, December 12, 2012

 

OPEC maintains oil output quota of 28 million barrels per day, according to the predictions. This deal comes after some delegates showed satisfaction with the level of production and the share of oil supply and demand conditions in the world. "The current oil price was satisfactory for all parties," said Minister for Ecuador's petroleum, Wilson Pastor.

 

Nevertheless, OPEC does not provide clarity as to how the group can overcome the production levels past the quota. The petroleum Minister of Iran wants some OPEC members slashed production because there was a production in excess of the quota as many as 780,000 barrels per day. Iran wants OPEC members that production increase last year, to offset the decline in production of Libya as a result of the civil war, in order to trim its production. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates has been to increase production last year to compensate for the decline in oil production. However, the United Arab Emirates petroleum Minister said unnecessary trimming production as the market needs more oil than the quotas that have been set.

 

Meanwhile, oil prices strengthened in the New York session. The Nymex oil is now traded $ 86.32, away from the low level of daily $ 85.67

[mynameisandhy]

The Focus Shifted To The Oil Negotiations Fiscal Cliff

 

Thursday, December 13, 2012

 

U.S. crude oil futures prices lost momentum in the European trading session Thursday as investors fear that the US fiscal gap negotiations will not be achieved before the deadline so that promoted economic growth and slowdown in the rate of demand for oil.

 

So far the observed prices of crude oil contract for January's SAG-0.55% at $ 128.89, after reaching its lowest intraday at $ 86.06 and took his high level at $ 86.78.

 

Other negative catalyst is reporting an increase in the stock of U.S. reserves of inyak 800,000 barrel beyond the estimation over the fall of the stock of reserves amounted to-1.3 million barrels. Then investors will still be watching the progress of negotiations the US fiscal gap. President Obama had commented that he was optimistic of the budget negotiation process, but the leader of the HOUSE of REPRESENTATIVES John Boehner denied that by rejecting the President's budget proposal.

 

Separately members of OPEC producers do not change oil production levels of the OPEC member, and failed to elect a new OPEC Chairman. The OPEC delegation stated that new production is reduced if the condition of the market is experiencing an excess supply in the coming years.

[mynameisandhy]

Oil weakened, the market Monitor Fiscal cliff

 

Friday, December 14, 2012

 

Oil is down for the first time in three days as the Chairman of the HOUSE of REPRESENTATIVES John Boehner says that the White House is not serious about slashing the budget and U.S. retail sales rose less than expected in the month of November. " The debate about the budget seems to be the focus of the market right now, "said Gene McGillian, analyst at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut."There is concern about whether we're going to get some deal from Washington. There is a lot of uncertainty in the economy at the moment. "

[mynameisandhy]

Oil Aids Chinese Optimism

 

Monday, December 17, 2012

 

Oil prices strengthened on the London session over the emergence of optimism will be the sustainability of China's economic recovery, the biggest oil consumer is no. 2 in the world. Investors believe energy demand from China will rise after Chinese manufacturing data (HSBC) increased from 31.6 to be 31.4 level in December. "Improving China's economic indicator later this can be intimated the continued momentum of China's economic growth and this means energy demand will rise gradually," said Sijin Cheng, a commodity analyst at Barclays Capital.

 

However, the oil rally seemed to be limited as the market anxiously U.S. politicians are not going to find a solution to the fiscal precipice before closing the year. If the U.S. can't find a solution in the near future, then the world's largest economy may be slipping back into the abyss of a recession so it can also undermine the world's energy demand outlook. "Every day that passed U.S. politician in the absence of a fiscal abyss solution will increase the fears of investors will be the worst impacts to the economy," said Tim Waterer, CMC Markets trader interviewed Reuters.

[stuart_2009]

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[mynameisandhy]

Optimistic Oil Against The US Budget Crisis Discussion

 

Tuesday, December 18, 2012

 

U.S. crude oil prices rose on Monday as news that US pipeline expansion will be completed next month and optimism of a deal to avoid "fiscal cliff ''. The difference between the price of Brent crude minya narrows more than 80 cents menyusl news that Enterprise Products Partners and Enbridge will finish the expansion of 350,000 barrels per day (bpd) on a pipeline that carries as many as 150,000 bpd from Oklahoma to the Texas pipeline Seaway in early January. The oil also supported increased after President Barack Obama and House Republican spokesman John Boehner met to discuss the US budget crisis on a solution.

[mynameisandhy]

Crude Oil Futures Moved Up

 

Wednesday, December 19, 2012

 

Crude oil futures rose above terkerek US $ 87 per barrel on Tuesday, buttressed by optimism a deal u.s. officials to avoid a fiscal abyss.

 

Observed so far U.S. futures price of crude oil for January contracts gained 0.47 percent at $ 87.61, after reaching its highest point at $ 87.90 and its daily lowest level at $ 87.33.

 

Strengthening triggered after reported progress between President Obama and the leadership of the HOUSE of REPRESENTATIVES John Boehner in a bid to prevent tax increases and spending cuts in automatically at the end of the year. In his latest proposal aimed at Republicans, White House lowers the tax revenue increase to $ 1.2 trulyun accompanied by cuts in spending of $ 1.22 trillion.

 

This latest Proposal was welcomed positively by the Republican party, so the market participants more optimistic that sooner or later an agreement can be reached to avoid a recession as a result of the US fiscal gap.

[mynameisandhy]

Oil Performance Shadowed By Profit-Taking

 

Thursday, December 20, 2012

 

The price of oil sign of weakening on the London session due to the emergence of profit-taking action after a thunderous effort rally in the last few days. Sentiment was quite negative over the outbreak of anxiety will be the U.S. 's inability to find a solution before closing the fiscal gap year. President Obama threatened to veto the proposal to the Republicans; This is a sign of the deadlock of negotiation process.

 

"The deadlock of negotiation has managed to quell the oil rally," said Natalie Rampono, analyst with ANZ. "The market is still affected by the process of negotiations on U.S. politicians to find a solution before closing the fiscal gap year." Investors are now looking forward to a series of U.S. data to be released later tonight to find more instructions will be economic recovery in the world's biggest energy consumer. The Nymex oil is now traded at $ 89,59, is trying to steer clear of high level $ 89,81 daily.

[mynameisandhy]

Rectified oil Sharply due to a Fiscal cliff

 

Friday, December 21, 2012

 

Oil is down for the first time in six days as rising concerns that U.S. lawmakers would fail to reach an agreement to avert a fiscal crisis, the condition is threatening the economy of the world's largest oil consumer.

 

Oil prices slump as much as 1.6 percent after Republican leaders canceled plans for a vote to raise taxes for the rich, the condition is increasingly upsetting the U.S. budget talks negotiations between Democrats and Republicans. More than $ 600 billion in budget cuts and tax increases set out walking began as early as January, unless an agreement is reached.

 

"Oil has been strengthened throughout this week, amid hopes that the u.s. will solve the problem, and now it looks that it is not a solution in the near future," said Addiso Armstrong, analyst at Tradition Energy in Connecticut. "We ran out of time and the market looks of fear. "

[mynameisandhy]

Nervous Investors, The Oil Is Likely Still Weakening

 

Monday, December 24, 2012

 

Oil traded close to its lowest level in nearly a week in New York as market khawatirnya that members of Parliament would fail to prevent budget cuts and tax increases that could threaten the u.s. economy.

 

Oil futures little changed, after slipped by 1.6 percent on December 21, it was the biggest decline in more than two weeks. Republicans and Democrats probably will not reach an agreement over the budget negotiations at the end of the year to prevent the more than $ 600 billion in automatic actions that we know as a fiscal cliff, said Senator Joseph Lieberman told CNN program "State of the Union".

 

"Investors are just nervous about exposure to anything at the moment and therefore they think only to take positions, such as oil of one of them," said Gavin Wendt, senior analyst and founder of Mine life Pty in Sydney. "Oil is a commodity industry and potentially once against the situation when terselesaikannya fiscal cliff, we can see its increase. "

[mynameisandhy]

Oil Slumped Back On The Session New York

 

Tuesday, December 25, 2012

 

Of oil slumped for the second day in New York on concerns that U.S. lawmakers would miss the deadline for budget negotiations at the end of the year, is increasingly threatening the economy of the United States.

 

Oil futures fell as much as 0.4 percent as the Democrats and Republicans are discussing about how to avoid a fiscal cliff that is scheduled to take effect on January 1. The failure to reach an agreement could push the u.s. economy into recession for the first semester in 2013, said the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office today.

 

"It looks like there may be a series of small transactions," said Bill O'Grady, market analysts at Confluence Investment Management in St. Louis. "This is probably going to be more like the fiscal gap fiscal compared. Today it looks boring, along its dimness the market ahead of the holiday season. "

[ian_arifin]

Crude Oil in 2013: Brent boxed into price range of USD 90-125

Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy, Saxo Bank

 

Brent Crude oil has, despite times of elevated uncertainty, been trading within a relative stable trading range during the last couple of years, especially compared with previous years where extreme peaks and troughs appeared. Looking ahead to 2013, we believe that this range trading will continue, as Brent Crude is currently sandwiched between several equal important factors, the combined sum of which should keep the price boxed in between USD 90 and USD 125 during the next couple of years.

 

During these past two years Brent Crude Oil has become the global benchmark for a majority of physical oil transactions, and also increasingly the preferred crude oil commodity in investment portfolios. Just recently we have seen two of the world’s most followed commodity indices, the S&P GSCI and DJ-UBS, both announce another percentage point weight increase of Brent in their portfolio for 2013 at the expence of WTI Crude, which still carries the highest weight but is sharply reduced from previous years.

 

The major spikes in Brent Crude during 2010 and 2011 were primarily triggered by both major and minor fears of supply disruptions, especially the Libyan civil war in early 2011 and the announcement of Iran sanctions due to uncertainties over its nuclear intentions in early 2012. Minor disruptions to production in Sudan, Nigeria, Syria and the North Sea also helped to support the price.

 

Up against these fears of supply disruptions, the global economy has been bumping along at a relative slow pace, resulting in only a small increase in global demand for oil. At times worries about recession, now realised in Europe, and other regions of the world has helped offset the above mentioned supply worries, resulting in minor (and a few major) downside corrections.

 

As a result the average price of Brent Crude has remained almost unchanged for the past two years at 110.75 USD/barrel in 2011 and 111.70 USD/barrel so far in 2012 . Almost nine percent of all volume during the last two years has taken place between 110 and 111 while 54 percent of all traded volume has occurred within a narrow nine dollar range between 106 and 115.

 

The downside tail, as also seen below, is somewhat longer than the upside one. This can among other things be explained by the presence of speculative investors such as hedge funds and traders. Speculative traders react to market movements by either by adding or reducing exposure and the two peaks in oil price were both followed by one minor and a major sell-off as they were forced to reduce loss making positions . During such times of long liquidation we often find that the move gets extended much beyond what is warrented by the underlying fundamentals.

 

Now that we have determined two of the major drivers behind the price of oil, geopolitical concerns and speculative investment flows, let us take a look at some of the other reasons why we believe that the price of oil will remain range bound for the foreseeable future. Tomorrow we'll discuss 2 factors creating support for the price, and 3 major factors creating resistance.

Edited December 26, 2012 by ian_arifin

[mynameisandhy]

Iran Plans Oil Be Strong

 

Wednesday, December 26, 2011

 

The oil rally after the Iran war exercise plan managed to trigger fears of a worsening of the situation in the Middle East, the world's main oil production area. "Iran will do the war exercise for 6 days in the Strait of Hormuz," said Naval Commander Habibollah Sayari, Iran. "The Exercises will include missile defense and systems testing, combat vehicles and submarines. The exercise will also be conducted in the sea of Oman and Northern India Sea. "

 

Iran seemed to want to show off their military strength for the sake of those countries have the capacity to defend if attacked by the enemy. Israel has to point out the desire will take military action if Western sanctions have failed to quell the nuclear ambitions of Iran. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the important transport route for world oil and Iran seemed to want to show its ability to defend the Straits. The Nymex oil is now traded $ 89.14, away from the low level of daily $ 88.58

[mynameisandhy]

Profit-Taking Weighs On Oil

 

Thursday, December 27, 2012

 

Oil sign attenuation thin in London session, depressed by the action of profit-taking after the strong rally yesterday. The oil tap $ 91.33 after Iran announced plans military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz for 6 days starting Dec. 28. However, investors still pore over the development of the US fiscal gap negotiations as President Obama and Congress returned to Washington after the Christmas holidays. The Nymex oil is now traded $ 99.44, trying to avoid the high level of daily $ 91.33

 

Economists suggested the deal would probably include trimming the budget in a significant amount so that potentially undermined the purchasing power of consumers. This means it can reduce demand outlook the world's largest energy consumer. "Although the market is still not sure if a compromise between Obama and Congress can be achieved; We are still confident the deal will happen at the last minute. Final approval will probably be delayed until early January and will probably include fiscal austerity policies valued at 2% of the GDP, "wrote research reports on Bank of America-Merril Lynch.

[mynameisandhy]

U.S. Oil Reserves Dwindle

 

Friday, December 28, 2012

 

Oil reserves are reduced as much as 600,000 barrels; higher than the predicted decline of 1.6 million barrels the previous publication and is reduced by as much as 1 million barrels. Oil prices seen difficulties maintaining reinforcement after the data was released. The Nymex oil is now traded $ 91.00, try to steer clear of high level daily $ 91.48

[mynameisandhy]

Oil Rose Over The Deal "Fiscal Cliff" Look Closer

 

Monday, December 31, 2012

 

Oil ended the year 2012 trading higher, supported by hopes that Washington will reach an agreement to prevent a fiscal cliff that will be valid from January 1. Oil futures started the day lower, but reversed course after a statement from President Barack Obama that a deal to prevent a fiscal cliff the "looks". However, negotiations end there has been no result. Oil market participants have followed the discussion because of the worry that the fiscal cliff could hinder the recovery of the u.s. economy. "The oil market up and down against the news of the fiscal cliff," said Phil Flynn, analyst at Price Futures Group, on Chichago. "When it looks like a deal is reached, the oil strengthened. "

[mynameisandhy]

Oil Steady Above $ 93 Per Barrel Amid Deal Fiscal Cliff

 

Wednesday, January 2, 2013

 

Crude oil futures rose above $ 93 terdongkrak per barrel on Wednesday, supported by an agreement achieved in the final minutes by u.s. policy stakeholders to mengindari fiscal abyss, while China's manufacturing data also support the sentiment.

 

So far the observed prices of crude oil futures contracts for the month of February rose 1.76% at $ 93.45, after reaching its highest point at $ 93.51 on his daily lowest level and at $ 91.56.

 

Strengthening occurred since the House and Senate approve a bill Tuesday in the latest fiscal year, to prevent budget savings measures that are too dramatic in 2013 and even threatened us economic recession.

 

The new deal will keep the tax cuts from the Bush era, and adds the category of tax increases for individuals with incomes above $ 400,000 in setahunnya, plus some tax increases for the receipt of dividends, corporate, but only delay budget cuts during the next 2 months.

 

Even though there are still uncertainties of the program budget of the us in the long term, but the market managed to sustain eforia various commodities including oil to its best level in the last few months.

[mynameisandhy]

The oil away from High Level 3 months

 

Thursday, January 3, 2013

 

Oil is down for the first time in 3 days along with the speculation that the increase in oil prices to the highest level in three months today may be too excessive. Oil is down by as much as 0.7 percent after rally of 2.6% for 2 days and then along the u.s. Government managed to avoid a fiscal cliff that threatens the growth rate. Oil prices fell yesterday as technical indicators showed prices rising too fast to be able to continue to rise, according to Bloomberg data.

 

"We got a pretty strong sell signals and the coincidence level is a level where traders will buy," said Michael McCarthy, Chief of staff at CMC Markets in Sydney. "What is happening is the liquidation of long positions, perform profit-taking."

[mynameisandhy]

Abu Dhabi Is Ready To Secure The Sale Of Crude Oil February

 

Friday, January 4, 2013

 

Abu Dhabi National Oil Co (ADNOC), the main exporter to OPEC members in Saudi Arabia, will supply the crude oil volume to Asia for the contract in February, which was still stable in January, said an industry source this Friday.

 

ADNOC has informed the buyer from Asia that the company will supply the product level 4 – Murban, Umm Shaif, Zarkum Lower and Upper Zakum – for a contract next month, the source said.

 

Companies that run by the Government still has not revealed whether it will give the buyer an option to request shipping costs by approximately 5% for the contract in February, added the source.

 

Last month, ADNOC ensure there is tolerance for 4 levels of its products for shipment in January.

[mynameisandhy]

Crude oil Futures Plummeted In the European session

 

Monday, January 7, 2013

 

Crude oil futures traded lower in the European session Monday indicated a temporary rally since Sunday due to relief that was triggered by the fiscal abyss in Washington has faded.

So far the observed prices of crude oil futures contracts for the month of February the US weakened-0.52% at the level of $ 92.60, after reaching its highest point at $ 93.25 and lowest level took in $ 109.92.

 

Consultant institutes predicts that oil supply from non-OPEC countries will exceed demand significantly in 2013, so the core countries (OPEC) is likely to be begin to reduce production levels to keep balance in the market.

 

OPEC'S own production fell 31 million barrels per day last month for the first time since October 2011, a decrease due to reduced oil supply Iran who were at the lowest level since 1988, while Iraq and Saudi Arabia have also slashed production amid a drop in global oil demand.

[mynameisandhy]

The High Level of oil staying at 4 months

 

Tuesday, January 08, 2013

 

Oil traded near the highest level in nearly four months ahead of a Government report that showed refinery utilization may grow in the us. West Texas Intermediate oil prices almost flat after rising briefly for 2 days today. Oil refinery will probably raise levels of refining as much as 0.2% to 90.6%, according to a survey report by the DEP. of energy tomorrow. The supply of crude oil increased by 1.4 million barrels and supplies of fuel also is expected to increase, according to the survey.

 

"Oil has a seidkit encouragement up given the improving market sentiment and funds mengetatnya kesimbangan demand and supply," said Carsten Fritsch, analyst at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. "But the market does not mean the supply of funds mengetatnya also supply shortage, only the excess supply is starting to diminish."

[mynameisandhy]

Oil Still Awaits US Supply Data

 

Wednesday, January 09, 2013

 

Oil prices fluctuate on a London session amid signals the presence of the addition on oil supplies in the us. U.S. crude oil supplies rose by as much as 1.5 million barrels last week, according to the American Petroleum Institute. Reports of the DEP. of energy analysts predicted today would show an increase of 2 million barrels. The supply of gasoline and oil distillation yields also rose, according to the API.

 

"It appears that the supply of oil will go up in the spring," said Andy Sommer, senior oil analyst at Axpo AG Trading in Dietikon, Switzerland. "Demand and supply on the market is fairly well balanced, with a slight deficit, but this is a normal seasonal pattern. We saw a decrease in the risk of entering the spring. "

[mynameisandhy]

Oil Strong After China's Data Post

 

Thursday, January 10, 2013

 

Today's crude oil contracts rose in electronic trading sessions (Thursday 10/01). Strengthening the export data came after China rises above estimates and sparked the interest of the investors to buy assets at risk. Oil remains able to strengthen even though the exchange rate of the Dollar is too strong.

 

Contract light sweet crude for delivery in February-going up 41 cents or 0.4% to $ 93.51 per barrel. Prices were down 5 cents on the NYMEX regular session last night, after fuel supply data and distillation of Americans rises above estimates.

 

Today's gain occurred after official data showed the Chinese Government's annual export figures of the country surged 14.1 percent in December. The ratio of increase in exports was greater than expectations at the same time increase the amount of trade surplus to $ 31.6 billion. China import 23,67 million tons of crude oil in December, or more than the previous month's record (23,37 million tons).

 

The Dollar index, which is a parameter of the exchange rate of USD against six major currencies, observed in 80.598 or more powerful than a note yesterday, 80.514. Until news is written, the crude oil prices observed in the $ 86 per barrel.

[mynameisandhy]

Over The Weekend, The Price Of Oil Mix

 

Friday, January 11, 2013

 

Contract price of oil move mix in early trading Asian markets with the WTI continued to rally today (10/01), due to a drop in news results of Saudi oil and the positive trade data Chian. While Brent oil was corrected.

 

The price Spread between WTI-Brent kian narrowed about $ 3.5 since the end of December due to news that the Seaway Pipeline will boost production capacity this week. Operasioanal in Yemen recorded 120,000 barrels/day while Marib-race stop production following the blast which occurred yesterday. ICE February Brent oil was down 17 cents to $ 111.72/barrel. In February Nymex oil rose 12 cents to $ 93.94/barrel.