News and Reviews European Economic Zone

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (Switzerland)

 

SNB worried about the Euro zone, the Referendum Gold

Monday, November 17th, 2014

 

Swiss National Bank to face the biggest test in 2 years at the limit of his franc exchange rate, but it may be easier to maintain today than when it concerns the euro zone divisions erupted. The franc rose to its strongest level since September 2012 on Friday, approaching the limit of 1.20 which was introduced by the Swiss National Bank since 2011 when the currency appreciation pressure on the exporters and pose a threat of deflation. The weakening of the euro zone recently, and the readiness of the European Central Bank to use a radical policy to stimulate the economy, has melonjakkan demand for francs. Referendum against the Swiss gold reserves this month also played a role. While small chances for approval, the result "Yes" will encourage the SNB to buy gold together with currency intervention.

 

However, the flow of capital towards Switzerland have been reduced sharply since high levels in the euro crisis, as kcemasan that intervention would trigger inflation. More importantly, the success of the SNB maintains the limit in 2011 and 2012 means that the SNB did not need to intervene with the same scale to maintain the current limit. "The difference between now and the year 2011 is a broad market and most economists believe that intervention can break speculation," said Rudolf Strahm, economist and former official in Switzerland. "Some traders try to attack franc but failed and losers. Since then no one would dare to try again."

Had reached the level of 1.2015 francs per euro on Friday, near the level of 1.2010 per euro, the level at which the SNB intervened earlier. SNB surprised the market when imposing such restrictions in September 2011, after the franc soared to a record high against the euro. Years later, as concerns of a Greek exit from the euro zone spread, Trager failed to push through the boundaries of the franc. Limit the exchange rate has become the backbone of SNB policy. The strengthening of the franc these days is not likely to trigger an intense buying, according to economists.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (France)

 

Against the French Minister of Finance Optimistic GDP

Monday, November 17th, 2014

 

French economic growth may exceed the target of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) amounted to 0.4% this year, said French Finance Minister Michel Sapin. "Recent data for the third quarter that made me optimistic. This year, France will achieve the target of 0.4%, and possibly a little on top of that," he said on the sidelines of the G-20. Gross domestic product (GDP) in the country's second-largest economy in Europe is growing 0.3% in the third quarter, the high level of 1 year. The data following the contraction in the previous quarter, making the French have called "sick man of Europe".

 

However, the rate of growth of 0.4% is difficult to maintain in the long run, according to the warning. The OECD estimates that France will expand at a rate of 1% in 2015, which according Sapin will not be enough to deliver real results. "Although the growth rate of 1-1.5%, as we expected, will not be enough to reduce unemployment and rebalance our public finance sector. Structural reforms and fiscal policies and structural investments A suitable that can help France, and Europe, unvuk reach the rate of growth that can stop the crisis, "he said.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

 

Carney: Inflation rate hike Depending Consumers

Monday, November 17th, 2014

 

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney and chief economist, Andy Haldane, indicating their focus on risk reduction as the central bank's inflation rate emphasizes reason to maintain loose monetary policy. "There is a great disinflationary pressures from our trading partners, especially in Europe, and commodity prices have come down quite sharply," Carney said in an interview with Australian newspaper. With the rate of growth of consumer prices below the target BOE, according to Haldane he saw developments that continue to decline .

 

Comments that was released a few days after the Bank of England cut its forecast for growth and inflation Britain due to sluggish global growth and stagnation in Europe. BOE Policy Council kept interest rates at a record low 0.5% this month, and Carney, engatakna that low interest rates are still appropriate because there is a shortage in the labor market, and other problems. UK inflation rate slowed to a level of 1.2% in September and has been under the central bank's target of 2% for 9 months.

"So far, inflation expectations in the UK has risen, and overall, the BOE expects inflation will be on target in the next 2-3 years," according to Haldane. However, inflation should be treated with caution, he said. "Even in the UK, a number of data on consumer inflation expectations have dropped slightly this year. From the standpoint of the central bank, and the UK inflation rate is still below target, this is something that continues to go down."

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

 

UK Inflation Rise in November

Tuesday, November 18th, 2014

 

Office for National Statistics reported UK inflation (year-on-year) rose to 1.3% in October from the previous month by 1.2% and higher than economists' estimates of 1.2%. Reported core inflation remained at 1.5%.

 

UK inflation is under the Bank of England's target of 2% since January. The low inflation has provided a space for the BOE to keep interest rates for longer.

 

BOE Governor, Mark Carney, the quarterly inflation report last week said inflation would fall down 1% in the coming months, and will re-achieve the target of 2% in three years. Carney also lowered its economic growth England in 2015 to 2.9% and 2.6% in 2016, from a previous projection of 3.1% and 2.8%.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (Germany)

 

German Economic Sentiment Rebounds in November

Tuesday, November 18th, 2014

 

German economic sentiment rose for the first time in 11 months after the biggest economy was able to avoid a recession. ZEW economic expectations index reported in the next six months rose to 11.5 in November, rebounding sharply from October by-3.6. Economists had expected a gain of 0.9.

 

Destatis on Friday reported the German economy grew 0.1% in the third quarter, rebounding from the previous quarter contracted by 0.1%, and the corresponding economists forecast of 0.1%.

 

For the current economic conditions, sentiment edged up to 3.3 from 3.2 last month. ZEW also reported that consumer sentiment overall euro zone rose to 11.0 in November, from 4.1 the previous month, well above economists' estimates of 4.3.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (Greece)

 

People Greece Want IMF Program Ends

Tuesday, November 18th, 2014

 

Tens of thousands of Greeks held a demonstration as a form of rejection of the implementation of austerity policies implemented by Athens to get the IMF bailout fund disbursement. Greece has six years to run the IMF programs that contribute to high levels of unemployment and reduced living standards. The dominance of disaffection of the people against the IMF program can be seen from the increasing support for the opposition party Syriza were very critical of the IMF bailout program.

 

Around 40,000 students, workers, and retirees do demonstrations that took place near the parliament building and the US embassy. Giant banner that said 'IMF Out "looks at the rallies that took place Monday night local time. Action clashes had occurred where the police threw tear gas at a group of youths who had melemparkar stones and plastic bottles. Greek trade unions called for a strike even work for 24 hours on 27 November as a form of protest against the austerity measures proposed by the IMF and Europe.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

 

BoE's Forbes Concerned With UK Current Account

Wednesday, November 19th, 2014

 

Slowing the flow of funds since the global financial crisis of 2008-09 will make the UK more difficult to fund the current account deficit, according to Kristin Forbes BoE officials. BoE's Forbes pointed out in capital flows between countries has dropped sharply since the global banking system nearly bankrupt seven years ago and has not returned to pre-crisis levels. This can have an impact on the UK economy given its role as one of the world's financial centers.

 

"The reduction in the flow of international banking capital can make the UK more difficult and more expensive to finance the current account deficit," Forbes said when delivering a speech at Queen Mary University. The current account deficit reached 5.2% of GDP in the second quarter of 2014; not so far from a record 5.6% of GDP in the third quarter of 2013. Forbes said the deficit is not going down any time soon, given the lack of demand from trading partners England.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (Greece)

 

Troika Want Greek Start Saving Policy

Wednesday, November 19th, 2014

 

The Greek government is still not see the meeting point with the troika over austerity measures that need to be done as a prerequisite disbursement last bailout, according to a Bloomberg report. Greek creditors Troika representatives who presented the IMF, the EU, and the ECB. If agreement can not be reached before December 8 then Greece may not get the next bailout fund disbursement.

 

Resource persons Bloomberg said the Greek government does not want to run a query troika who want to see additional cost savings of 2.5 billion euros for 2015. The troika representatives seemed quite annoyed with the inability of Athens to show what austerity measures that can be taken to cover the funding shortfall. "There will be no new austerity measures. We will maintain that attitude," said Deputy Prime Minister Evangelos Venizelos Greece after attending a meeting with Prime Minister Antonis Samaras that the process of negotiation with the troika.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (Switzerland)

 

SNB estimated Will Delay Withdrawal Limit Franc Exchange Rate

Wednesday, November 19th, 2014

 

Swiss central bank will maintain the exchange rate limit fance to 2017 for mencetah impact of unconventional policy of the European Central Bank, according to a monthly survey of economists by Bloomberg. More than half of the respondents mengatkan SNB will not lift the limit franc exchange rate at 1.20 per euro until 2007 or so. Only 3 of the 18 respondents who predicted the existence of the limit next year revocation.

 

The franc hit a 26-month high against the euro this week as investors are optimistic that the ECB will add stimulus to boost inflation. ECB President Mario Draghi said that the central bank was ready to do more and this week mennyebutkan government bond purchases as a policy tool that can be used. SNB set a limit at 1:20 about 3 years ago after the franc rose toward parity against the euro amid euro zone debt crisis.

"Given our expectations that the ECB will keep interest rates until 2017, it will force the SNB to maintain the minimum exchange rate," said Birgit Heim, senior research analyst at Zuercher Kantonalbank in Zurich. According to the survey, only one economist who predicted the SNB would repeal the limit this year and 3 others predict it will happen in the next year and 2016. The respondents estimate the limit will be lifted on more than 2016 "we do not expect the challenges faced by banks the central moment will be fleeting, "SNB President Thomas Jordan said in an interview with Zuercher Oberlaender, which was released today.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

 

UK Car Production Dropped in October

Thursday, November 20th, 2014

 

The level of UK car production fell by almost 7% in the annual rate in October and is likely to fail to achieve its annual target due to weakening demand from abroad, according to one industry body said on Thursday. Automakers produce 150.060 cars a month Okotber, fell as much as 6.7% compared to last year, due to a decrease of more than 10% at the level of exports, which is equivalent to 4 out of 5 cars produced in the UK each year. With car production flat so far this year, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) said the possibility of the UK can not achieve the annual target of producing as much as 1:59 million cars, which is expected at the beginning of the year.

 

SMMT chief executive Mike Hawes said the new model would help the car industry, but the blame can be attributed to a decrease in the level of foreign demand in October, after the data are under levle in 2013 for 3 months in a row. "The industry in the UK car plant is still in a strong position despite the increased uncertainty in the global economy," he said.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone

 

Eurozone PMI fell to 16 Months

Thursday, November 20th, 2014

 

Business activity in the euro zone slowed in November, to signal the economic bloc of 18 countries will slow later this year. Survey of purchasing managers' index (PMI) from Markit's manufacturing and service sectors showed 51.4, down from 52.1 the previous month.

 

Preliminary calculations of the business activity also gives an overview of the future will still be weak, after the new orders index recorded a decline for the first time since July 2013. The survey also showed businesses cut back their prices due to weak demand, which can be an early indication of weakness zone inflation eruo in this month.

 

Low inflation is a problem that continues to plague the region, and the European Central Bank has cut interest rates as well as the disbursement of stimulus to boost the economy and spur inflation. The eurozone economy in the third quarter grew only 0.2% from the previous quarter

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

 

UK Retail Sales Rebound in October

Thursday, November 20th, 2014

 

The sharp drop in prices in the shops making UK retail sales rebound in October after a record decline in September. Average prices fell 1.5% in October, led by a decline in the price of the gas station after the decline of crude oil prices.

 

Office for National Statistics reported retail sales rose 0.8% in October from September. For retail sales in September was revised down to -0.4% from -0.3% the previous release. Meanwhile, when compared with the previous year, retail sales in October rose 4.3%.

 

Sales of household goods at department store retailer and the largest contributor to the increase in sales volume. The increase in sales also occur in a clothing store, after warmer weather in September to make consumers put off buying winter clothes.

 

The increase in retail sales signaled the desire of consumers to do shopping, which became the backbone of the UK economy in the first half of this year. Economists had worried about a decline in consumer spending due to a decrease in salary when compared with inflation. But the figures in October showed wages rising above inflation for the first time since the third quarter of 2009.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (Switzerland)

 

SNB Ready Maintaining Boundaries Franc Exchange Rate

Friday, November 21, 2014

 

Swiss National Bank (SNB) is ready to take action to defend the exchange rate limits franc against the euro by buying euros in unlimited quantities or with other policies, according to a statement Fritz Zurbruegg SNB officials. The exchange rate of the euro against the Swiss franc is now trading near the lower limit of 1.20 EURCHF has determined the central bank since 2011 after a sharp strengthening of the franc weighed on the performance of exporters and give the threat of deflation.

 

SNB's Zurbruegg not explain further what other policies that could be the Swiss central bank. However, the SNB had been put forward the idea imposition of negative interest rates on Swiss franc deposits in order to prevent the strengthening of the Swiss currency. SNB's Zurbruegg refused to comment on whether the SNB has resumed after the intervention policy had reached the level 1.2010 EURCHF several times in the past week. The last time the SNB intervened in September 2012. The financial markets are now traded EURCHF 1.2020; not so far from the minimum limit specified SNB EURCHF 1.2000

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News and Review of European Economic Zone

 

Pessimistic Recovery Against Euro Zone, the ECB Ready Add Asset Purchase

Friday, November 21, 2014

 

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi speaks at the European Banking Congress in Frankfurt said that the ECB will increase its asset purchases if needed to boost the rate of inflation. "We will continue to carry out our responsibility .. we will do whatever must be done to raise inflation and expectations secepatan possible, according to the mandate of price stability," he said. "If you think our policy projections are still not effective enough to achieve this target, or there is a further risk to the inflation outlook, we will add to the pressure rise and expand our intervention channels, by changing the amount, rate, and the composition of our asset purchases," he said.

 

The euro zone economy is likely to remain stagnant in the short to medium term, according to the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi on Friday. "Strong recovery seems unlikely to happen in the next few months," Draghi said in a speech at the opening of the European Banking Congress in Frankfurt. The ECB has launched a number of policies to ease credit conditions in the euro zone to boost growth rates and inflation megnatasi that are dangerously low levels. Such policies include cutting interest rates to a record low and announced plans to buy covered bonds and asset-backed securities (ABS).

However, speculation has been circulating about how and when the ECB will start a program of buying government bonds as in the US. Besides Draghi, Jens Weidmann, President of the German central bank (Bundesbank) will also speak at the European Banking Congress in Frankfurt. Weidmann is known as a hawkish ECB Policy Council and has warned of "dangerous path" that may be applied quantitative easing.

Euro seems depressed after the speech of Draghi, dropped to a low level around 1.2470 area.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone

 

Euro Hit By Draghi Comments

Friday, November 21, 2014

 

The euro fell against the US dollar on Friday after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said that if the outlook for inflation has dropped to a very low level, which keeps the chance for further monetary easing. The assertion on the readiness of the ECB's Draghi to act in a timely manner is also fueled speculation about the stimulus measures further at the beginning of next month. European stock market responded positively to the comments that, while peripheral bond yields down.

 

"Draghi has brought a hard blow to the euro, especially the comments which imply worries about inflation expectations. It indicates if the ECB could soon loosen policy," said Niels Christensen, forex analyst at Nordea. "Euro zone inflation data next week is likely to be an important influence on the thinking of the ECB.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (Germany)

 

German Business Confidence Up in November

Monday, November 24th, 2014

 

German business confidence levels are surprisingly rose in November, and became the first increase in seven months. Germany myang back economic growth in the third quarter, as well as additional monetary stimulus from the European Central Bank was able to raise the sentiment of businesses.

 

Institute fo Economic Research reported that German business sentiment for the next six months rose to 104.7 this month after a record decline in six months straight. Figures in November also broke expectations fell to 103.0 by economists, from October's 103.2. While economic sentiment for current conditions rose to 110.0 from 108.4 previously.

 

The German economy grew 0.1% in the third quarter, after contracting in the previous quarter. Germany is the largest economy in Europe, so that the country's economic growth to be important for the recovery of the eurozone economy. Yet Germany's economic growth rate is still very low, and the Bundesbank had previously said the German economy will lack momentum until the end of this year. The statement looks of business activity both manufacturing and services sectors which are at their lowest level in 16 months in November.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone

 

German business sentiment strengthens Euro

Monday, November 24th, 2014

 

The euro rebounded from a two-year low against the dollar after the data German business sentiment rose for the first time in seven months. Institute fo Economic Research reported that German business sentiment for the next six months rose to 104.7 this month after a record decline in six months straight. Figures in November also broke expectations fell to 103.0 by economists, from October's 103.2. While economic sentiment for current conditions rose to 110.0 from 108.4 previously.

 

The euro extended gains after data showed the US service sector activity fell in November. Markit reported preliminary calculations service sector activity index fell to 56.3 in November from October's 57.1. Figures in November also broke the expectation of rising to 57.3 economists, and became the lowest level since April.

 

European Central Bank council member Jens Weidmann, said further steps for the new low inflation will be difficult to do and can be facing a legal boundaries. Different things expressed by the President of the ECB, Mario Draghi, said on Friday that the ECB is ready to act quickly in the face of low inflation. ECB on Friday also reported started to purchase asset-backed security (ABS), which is part of the European central bank's monetary stimulus is

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

 

Early week, Sterling Moving In Narrow Range

Monday, November 24th, 2014

 

Sterling moving flat to trade the European session earlier this week, after last week recorded a decline in four successive weeks. The British currency is likely to move in a narrow trading range due to the lack of economic data released from the UK. Market participants are likely to be cautious ahead of US gross domestic product data tomorrow.

 

GPPUSD traded at around 1.5645 at 17:38 pm, with daily highs and lows 1.5672 1.5627

 

Sterling last week recorded a weekly decline after the UK Independence Party, the party's anti-EU, won two parliamentary seats in by-elections, and a sign of an increase in political risk ahead of elections next May. UKIP victory is feared to have an impact on British policy towards the EU which is the main trading partners

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News and Review of European Economic Zone

 

ECB Will Meet Limitation Law

Tuesday, November 25th, 2014

 

The ECB may face legal restrictions when taking additional measures to combat low inflation, according to Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann. The German central bank president called for the ECB to focus on efforts to create economic growth rather than obsessing run government bond buying program.

 

In a speech in Madrid, when asked on the possibility of the ECB buying government bonds Weidmann said, "From the focus with better purchase program focused on efforts to create economic growth." The ECB has cut interest rates to a record low and asset-backed buy-seurities as an attempt to prevent the euro zone to fall into the abyss of deflation. However, the ECB has so far not made a program of bond purchases, or better known as the policy of Quantitative Easing (QE).

 

Weidmann warned of trouble if the ECB take QE policy to cope with low inflation. "More trouble if taking other policies. This is because the policy has not been tested, are less clear, and will meet the legal limits on what the central bank can do," said Weidmaan which is also one of the ECB governing council member

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (Germany)

 

German GDP Grew 0.1% only in the Third Quarter

Tuesday, November 25th, 2014

 

Germany rely on domestic consumers to economic growth last quarter amid declining investment, it puts a strong risk in the country's recovery.

 

German GDP, which is the country with the largest economy in Europe, rose 0.1% in the three months to September, reported by the Federal Statistics Office on this day, it confirms an estimate on November 14. Private consumption rose by 0.7%, while capital investment shrank by 0.9%.

 

Euro zone economies are almost stagnant and geopolitical tensions with Russia has limited the willingness of German companies to invest, potentially damaging the prospects for growth both domestically and in the Euro area. The German government has resisted calls to increase their own spending that aims to balance the budget next year, and has been put off to put a fund of 10 billion euros to invest until 2016.

 

"Overview of domestic extremely strong, which shows the condition in which the domestic demand for a very solid, strong labor market, as well as the number of job vacancies is likely still going up," said Anatoli Annekov, senior analyst at the European economy at Societe Generale SA in London. "But there is a lot of uncertainty from the outside, especially from the demand in the euro area. It affects the investment in Germany, which is also a structural problem for the economy."

 

Total government expenditure rose by 0.6% in the last quarter, reported by the statistics bureau today. The value of exports rose 1.9% and imports rose 1.7%.

The number of private consumption rose 0.4% to GDP and government consumption rose 0.1%. Total net trade Rev up 0.2% of GDP. Reduced capital investment and inventories fell 0.2% to 0.5%.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (UK)

 

Carney statement undermines Sterling

Tuesday, November 25th, 2014

 

The pound sterling weakened against the dollar in European trading session today after Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney, said the rate hike will be gradual and limited. Carney statement is dragging down yiled British bonds to the lowest level in six weeks.

 

Speaking in front of the British parliament, Carney said the global economic downturn in recent months, particularly the euro zone and Japan, as well as the geopolitical situation is still difficult to raise external risks to the outlook for the UK economy.

 

Meanwhile, the British Bankers Association reported mortgage lending in October fell to 37 076 of September amounted to 39 127. Total in October lower than economists forecast for 38,500, and provide acceleration signal slowing UK housing market.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (France)

 

French Consumer Confidence Index Up in November

Wednesday, November 26th, 2014

 

Consumer confidence in France in November rose, in the show by statistics agency Insee on Wednesday.

 

The monthly survey recorded a rise in consumer confidence to 87 in November from 85 in October. It was the highest reading since the survey in March, but still far below the long-term average at the 100 level.

 

Assessment of the consumers of their personal financial outlook rose as their perceptions of the ability to buy things began to improve. The survey also showed a strong rebound in the assessment of the French people to the quality of their lives in the last month.

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News and Review of European Economic Zone

 

ECB's Constancio: QE Can Start Launched In Early 2015

Wednesday, November 26th, 2014

 

Vice President of the European Central Bank, Vitor Constancio, on Wednesday sent a strong signal to the market by saying that the central bank is ready to start buying government bonds at the beginning of next year, if the measures are more aggressive stimulus is needed.

 

In remarks prepared for a press conference in London, Constancio said that the ECB expects the measures agreed can bring balance back to the level at the beginning of 2012. That means that the European central bank's balance sheet will be around € 1 trillion ($ 1, 24 trillion), higher than current levels.

 

"Of course we still continue to monitor whether the rate of evolution in line with expectations. If appropriate, we will see better conditions during the first quarter of next year," said Constancio. "If not, we have to consider to start buying other assets, including government bonds in the secondary market, as well as greater security and more liquid."

 

Constancio unequivocal statement signaled the ECB is likely not going to start a broad-based asset purchases, known as QE, in a meeting next week. The ECB appears to be more likely to do so at the beginning of next year

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (Italy)

 

Italian Consumer Confidence Back Descending

Wednesday, November 26th, 2014

 

Italian consumer confidence fell back in November, and touched its lowest level since February. Italian economy toward contraction in the third made setimen households declined and sentiment for current conditions worsened. Istat reported its consumer confidence index fell to 100.2 in November, from October amounted to 101.3.

 

Society's view of economic conditions and capacity savings in the future dims. The decline also occurred on the number of people who said it would buy durable goods, which gives an indication of the decline in consumer spending at the end of this year.

 

Istat also reported some positive things that society has expectations will not be an increase penganggura, as well as the current level of economic confidence and the steady rise in the future.

 

The Italian government expects the economy to return to contract this year and will grow moderately in the next year

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News and Review of European Economic Zone (Spain)

 

Spain Consumer Price Down On November.

Thursday, November 27th, 2014

 

Spanish consumer prices fell more than economists forecast in November, which may increase the anxiety that deflation will still take place in the country with the fourth largest economy in the Euro zone.

 

Prices fell by 0.5% from a year ago, in the report by the National Statistics Institute in Madrid on this day. The decline in consumer prices, which is measured by the size of the EU, the larger-than-expected 0.3% that economists called for in the Bloomberg survey. Economic growth unchanged at 0.5% in the third quarter, INE said in a separate report, it confirms the estimates on 30 October.

 

The expected economic data tomorrow will show inflation in the 18 euro countries slowed to 0.3% in November, it is still the same as the level at least since 2009. The ECB policy makers are monitoring for signs of further stimulus that may be in need and have a committee of experts which will assess further steps to help improve the nearly stagnant growth which may increase the amount of loans for long-term and bond purchase program.