Comments and forex-analytics from FBS Brokerage Company

[fallenDC]

Commerzbank: levels for EUR/USD

 

Analysts at Commerzbank note that EUR/USD is testing the 55-day MA at $1.2395. In their view, if the pair overcomes this level, it will be able to rise to $1.2440 (August maximum). According to the bank, the latter will contain at least in the near-term.

 

On the downside, the specialists think euro will become vulnerable for a slide to $1.2162/33 (mid-July minimum and the current August trough) and $1.2042 (July minimum) only if it falls below $1.2255 (Thursday’s minimum).

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/17_08_12/daily_eurusd_13-09.gif

 

Chart. Daily EUR/USD

 

 

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[fallenDC]

MIG Bank: trading USD/CHF

 

Analysts at MIG Bank recommend placing buy limit at 0.9630 and targeting 0.9730/0.9980/1.0300 and with stop at 0.9530.

 

Yesterday USD/CHF breached support line going up from August minimums. However, the specialists believe that support around 0.9660 is strong and able to make the pair recoil upwards: “We view the structure present since 0.8931 as being strongly positive and look for an eventual break back over 0.9972 to target 1.0300 initially and then higher.” The outlook will stop being bullish if the greenback dips below 0.9425 (June minimums).

 

We’d like to add that 1.0300 (200-week MA) represents a very strong resistance: the last time US dollar traded above it on a sustainable basis was in 2002.

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/17_08_12/daily_usdchf_14-44.gif

 

Chart. Daily USD/CHF

 

 

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[fallenDC]

AUD/USD: ready for a further drop

 

On Monday AUD/USD tested the lower boundary of the upper channel which exists since June after the RBA dovish comments. The pair trades around $1.0435 (the lowest level since July 27) after a slide lower.

 

As can be seen from the daily chart, AUD/USD is forming a “rounded top” pattern since late July with a neckline at $1.0435. A close below the level will pave the ground for a further decline to $1.0290 (200-day MA).

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/17_08_12/audusd_15-33.gif

 

Chart. Daily AUD/USD

 

 

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[fallenDC]

Merkel: Germany is in line with ECB to save the euro

 

According to German chancellor Angela Merkel, her country is committed to doing everything it can to preserve the euro and called once more for fiscal discipline. Mrs. Merkel praised the European leaders for making progress, but underlined the time is pressing.

 

These days Angela Merkel is passing through difficult times. As leader of Europe’s largest economy and the biggest single contributor to euro-region bailouts, Merkel is facing pressure from Italy and Spain to pool debt and to bring down bond yields, from Greece to back an easing of its austerity timetable and from the ECB for politicians to take the lead in fighting the crisis. She also faces domestic pressure from her coalition partners to refuse any more aid for Greece.

 

Next week Merkel starts a new round of political activity: Germany hosts French President Francois Hollande on August 23, one day before Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras visits Berlin for talks.

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/17_08_12/ic3y05jcbnbe.jpg

 

Source: Bloomberg

 

 

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[fallenDC]

August 20: forex news

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/20_08_12/utro_rus.png

 

The high-yielding currencies strengthen before the European leaders meet this week. The ECB may set limits on yields of euro zone sovereign debt by pledging unlimited bond purchases, what will support investor appetite for riskier assets. However, demand for AUD and NZD is tempered as the Fed meeting minutes on Wednesday may lower expectations for further monetary stimulus. Australia will release the RBA meeting minutes tomorrow. AUD/USD trades around $1.0450 and close to the lower boundary of the upward channel existing since June, while NZD/USD trades above the strong support at $0.8065.

 

The market’s attention this week is focused on the European politics: Greece’s Prime Minister Antonis Samaras meets Luxembourg’s Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker on Wednesday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Friday and French President Francois Hollande on Saturday. On Friday there will also be Hollande-Merkel meeting.

 

Last week EUR/USD was moving sideways in the $1.2260/2385 area. Today the pair is little changed from Friday’s close at $1.2334. The day is quite uneventful. Spanish 10-year yields ended last week at 6.44%, while Italian ones – at 5.78%, below the critical maximums.

 

USD/JPY was steadily rising last week and managed to rise above 200-day MA, but now stalled around resistance at 79.60 yen (100-day MA). Yen’s weakening is limited by demand for Japanese government bonds as Japan has the highest real interest level after Italy in G7.

 

GBP/USD is trading sideways around $1.5700. Last week it closed below 200-day MA at $1.5713.

 

 

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[fallenDC]

Key options expiring today

 

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT).

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

EUR/USD: $1.2250, $1.2400, $1.2450;

 

USD/JPY: 79.00, 79.15, 79.25;

 

AUD/USD: $1.0300, $1.0350, $1.0570, $1.0600;

 

NZD/USD: $0.8100, $0.8150;

 

EUR/JPY: 98.00:

 

AUD/JPY: 81.00.

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/01_08_12/flatline.jpg

 

 

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[fallenDC]

Scotiabank: trading opportunities alert

 

Analysts at Scotiabank note that while EUR/USD was trading sideways last week, there are many other trading opportunities.

 

“EUR/CAD at new record lows; USD/JPY finally breaking out of its 16-session 88-point range; AUD/CAD collapsing lower. No time for the sidelines,” the specialists say.

 

The bank draws particular attention to Canadian dollar: “CAD has strengthened beyond where oil or interest rates would justify. There have been CAD positive flows this week that might have pushed it too far. Watch Canadian political landscape, since upcoming provincial elections could create some event risk.”

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/20_08_12/opportunity.jpg

 

Image from theoptionstradingcourse.com

 

 

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[fallenDC]

CFTC traders positioning data

 

The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released on Friday, August 17, by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), showed that on a week ended August 14:

 

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, cut their total US dollar long positions to $8.92 billion on August 14 from a total long position of $11.7 billion on August 7. Speculator sentiment for the euro dipped last week after improving for three consecutive weeks. Net short British pound positions shrank last week and reached a virtually neutral level against the US dollar. Japanese yen net long positions edged up slightly following a dip the previous week. Swiss franc net short speculative positions increased after improving for two consecutive weeks. Loonie, ausie and kiwi net long positions keep on rising.

 

Take a look at the following table.

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/20_08_12/cftc_eng.png

 

 

It’s necessary to note that the figures cited above are always a week old at the time of their release. Never the less, CFTC data gives a good oversight into how the market is positioned and if/how these positions are being unwound. Although the CME speculators represent a small fraction of trading in the currency markets, their trades are widely seen as typical of hedge fund investors' currency movements.

 

In the COT report all the market players are divided into three categories: hedgers (commercials), big speculators (non-commercials) and small traders (non-reportable positions). We analyze only non-commercial positions (mainly, these are banks and investment funds).

 

We recommend you paying attention to:

 

Extreme Positions: If everyone is already long or short it is a strong indication price may reverse because there is no one left for buyers to buy from and no one left for sellers to sell to.

 

Changes in Market Positions: When large speculators change their position and go from net long to net short or vice versa, there typically is a good reason they do this.

 

Changes in Open Interest: Rising or falling open interest may reflect directional commitment or lack thereof and therefore indicate strength or potential reversal of a particular price trend.

 

Find more at the CFTC website http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmesf.htm

 

 

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[fallenDC]

FX majors from top forecasters

 

Here are the forecasts for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF and EUR/JPY from top forecasters. Data were submitted on August 17.

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/20_08_12/aaaa.png

 

Source: FX Week

 

 

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Commerzbank: levels for USD/JPY

 

Technical analysts at Commerzbank think that USD/JPY is targeting 79.64 (May 1 minimum) and 79.92/80.15 (June 11 maximum, July maximums and May 22 maximum). In their view, support for the pair lies at 79.22 (200-day MA), 79.08 (55-day MA) and 78.80 (August 9 maximum). Above the latter, there’s the immediate upside momentum.

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/20_08_12/dailu_usdjpy_12-33.gif

 

Chart. Daily USD/JPY

 

 

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[fallenDC]

AUD/USD extends gains

 

On Monday AUD/USD trades on the upside above $1.0450 and close to the lower boundary of the upward channel, existing since June. The pair needs to fix above $1.0530 (August 17 maximum) to show the downward correction is over. On the upside strong resistance for AUD/USD lies at $1.0600 and at $1.0660 (resistance line, connecting 2011 and 2012 maximums).

 

Аnalysts at Westpac expect the pair to slide towards $1.0300 in the near-term on the back of falling iron prices and waning QE3 hopes. On the way towards this levels strong support lies at $1.0410 (August minimum).

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/20_08_12/audusd_13-28.gif

 

Chart. Daily AUD/USD

 

 

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[fallenDC]

Wells Fargo: GBP/USD growth is limited

 

On Monday GBP/USD extends the downside for a second consecutive day, but trades within the August uptrend. The pair trades below the 200-day MA ($1.5715).

 

Strong resistance for the pair lies at $1.5768/80 (June and July maximums – a two-month resistance, 50% Fib. retracement of a May drop) and at $1.6302 (2012 maximum). Support is seen at $1.5392 (July minimum), $1.5267 (June minimum) and at $1.5233 (2012 minimum).

 

According to specialists at Wells Fargo, in a near-term a brighter European and global market outlook could keep supporting the pair, but the medium-term prospects for the upside are limited.

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/20_08_12/gbpusd_14-24.gif

 

Chart. Daily GBP/USD

 

 

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[fallenDC]

Morgan Stanley: buy EUR/JPY

 

Morgan Stanley recommends buying EUR/JPY at 97.00 with stop at 95.70 and target at 101.60 yen.

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/20_08_12/daily_eurjpy_14-33.gif

 

Chart. Daily EUR/JPY

 

 

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[fallenDC]

RBS: trading GBP

 

Analysts at RBS claim British pound has switched to buy signal versus most of the rest of the G10 currencies, except USD (GBP/USD keeps testing 200-day MA), NOK, SEK and CAD. Such assumption is based on a simple 5- vs. 20-day MA momentum trading strategy. The biggest potential gains may be achieved in GBP/JPY and GBP/AUD.

 

The specialists note that although GBP/JPY may be over one standard deviation expensive, it’s difficult for the pair to move back towards fair value as the UK/JP 2-year rate spread has moved in favor of GBP since the BoE inflation report (the reduction in the BoE easing expectations) and the risk tone is positive.

 

If forex markets can play catch up to moves in other asset classes, AUD and NZD will be best placed to benefit vs. GBP.

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/20_08_12/daily_gbpjpy_16-27_(1).gif

 

Chart. Daily GBP/JPY

 

 

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[fallenDC]

Macroeconomic indicators

 

The table below provides recent data on the main macroeconomic indicators and is an extremely valuable resource for any trader.

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/20_08_12/macro_eng.png

 

Table. Main macroeconomic indicators

 

 

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[fallenDC]

August 21-24: economic events

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/20_08_12/week_ahead_engl.jpg

 

 

Tuesday, August 21

 

Australia: The RBA will release monetary policy meeting minutes (1:30 GMT). The central bank may warn about the high level of Australian dollar which is close to 30-year highs. Few economists expect the RBA to intervene in order to contain Aussie’s advance. The central bank is more likely to cut interest rates if it finds the strong national currency is actively damaging Australian economy. For the moment, the RBA is signaling that it’s happy with interest rates where they are. Analysts at CMC Markets think that “traders will be looking for clues that the rate easing cycle is already over.”

 

New Zealand: The RBNZ’s inflation expectations survey (3:00 GMT). Westpac says that “often an interest rate market mover, the 2-year number may fall from 2.4% to 2.2%, a headwind for swap rates and the New Zealand dollar.”

 

Britain: Public sector net borrowing (8:30 GMT). After a large deficit in the June reading, the markets are predicting a surplus in July. This would be bullish for the pound.

 

Japan: Trade balance (23:50 GMT). Trade deficit is expected to widen in July to 460 billion yen from 300 billion yen in June.

 

Wednesday, August 22

 

Euro area: Luxembourg’s Prime Minister and the head of Euro Group Jean-Claude Juncker will will meet with Greece’s Prime Minister Antonis Samaras to discuss a 2-year extension of the indebted nation’s fiscal adjustment program.

 

Canada: Retail sales (12:30 GMT) increased by 0.3% in May after 0.5% drop in April, while the core reading added 0.5% after sliding by 0.4%. According to the forecasts, retail sales may have gained 0.2% in June, while core sales – added 0.4%.

 

US: Existing home sales (14:00 GMT). The annual adjusted reading fell from a revised 4.62 million in May to 4.37 million in June. An increase to 4.52 million is expected this time (July). The FOMC meeting minutes (18:00 GMT). Societe Generale claims that “the minutes will give additional hints on the FOMC stance”. Credit Suisse says that the possibility of the Fed announcing QE3 next month has declined to 50%.

 

Thursday, August 23

 

China: HSBC flash manufacturing PMI (2:30 GMT). The index rose from 48.2 in June to 49.3 in July. This time August reading is released. A reading below 50.0 indicates industry’s contraction.

 

Euro area: French, German and euro area’s PMIs. Rabobank underlines that “confidence indicators from the euro zone likely to receive the most attention this week as they provide a timely snapshot of sentiment across a range of sectors.” Saxo Bank expects that readings will be weak and the pressure on ECB President Mario Draghi to act will strengthen. Societe Generale, on the contrary, claims that “the euro area manufacturing PMI will post the first rise in 6 months, increasing to 45.0 in August, while the service sector index should increase to 48.6. Despite the improvement both indices remain well below the critical 50 level, which in turn should be consistent with another contraction in euro area GDP in Q3 in line with our current forecast.”

 

German Chancellor Angela Merkel is due to meet French President Francois Hollande.

 

US: Unemployment claims (12:30 GMT) will likely come little changed around 365K. New home sales (14:00 GMT) may have risen from the lowest level in more than a year of 350K in June to 362K last month.

 

Australia: The RBA Governor Stevens speaks (23:30 GMT). Deutsche Bank says that “the rhetoric from the RBA indicates a very high hurdle to moving policy from here. For now they appear quite comfortably on hold and this week’s communication will likely reinforce that.”

 

Friday, August 24

 

Euro area: Greece’s Prime Minister Samaras meets Merkel in Berlin ahead of the return of the Troika (EU, IMF and ECB) to Athens in September. On Saturday Samaras will meet Francois Hollande.

 

Britain: Revised GDP (8:30 GMT). The first revision of GDP is likely to show a better outcome than the preliminary pessimistic reading of a 0.7% contraction. Economic growth in Q2 is predicted to shrink by only 0.5% due to a smaller than estimated drop in construction activity and industrial production.

 

US: Core durable goods orders (12:30 GMT). The indicator may have climbed by 0.5% after losing 1.4% in June.

 

 

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[fallenDC]

August 21: forex news

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/21_08_12/utro_eng.png

 

It’s another typical summer holiday trading day.

 

EUR/USD is moving gradually up today trading in the $1.2360 area. There are no major EUR-related data releases. Spain will offer 4.5 billion euro in 12-18 month bills. Spanish 10-year yields hit yesterday 7-week minimum at 6.16%. The series of important meetings begins in the euro area; follow our updates.

 

GBP/USD has risen above 200-day MA ($1.5713) and is moving up towards the 100-day one. Let’s see if sterling manages to hold its grounds today. Public sector net borrowing figures are released today in the UK at 8:30 GMT.

 

USD/JPY recoiled down from the 100-day MA returning to the 200-day one (79.22), the key near-term support.

 

Risk sentiment remains high. AUD/USD rose to $1.0480 levels after the RBA minutes showed the regulator think domestic economic growth will offset the global outlook. The central bank didn’t signal any intervention is needed to curb the Aussie’s strength. The Australian and New Zealand dollars were also supported by expectations talks among European leaders this week will lead to stronger measures to counter the region’s debt crisis, boosting risk demand. NZD/USD trades above $0.8100. USD/CAD trades below parity and close to a four-month low on the back of the improved economic growth prospects.

 

 

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[fallenDC]

What’s new in the euro zone?

 

Here we try to systematize the latest events

 

 

1. On Monday the ECB finally voiced its displeasure at the weekend report by Der Spiegel on capping periphery EU bond yields to bring down borrowing costs for troubled governments, saying it was misleading to report on decisions that hadn’t been made.

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/21_08_12/der-spiegel-logo.png

 

 

2. Also yesterday the Bundesbank criticized the ECB’s potentially unlimited bond purchasing program, saying that such decisions should be made by national governments or parliaments, not by central banks.

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/21_08_12/bundesbank-540x304.jpg

 

 

3. Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker visits Greece on Wednesday to discuss with Prime Minister Antonis Samaras the country’s request for a 2-year extension to its fiscal adjustment program. Then Samaras will go to Berlin to see Angela Merkel on Friday and to Paris on Saturday for a rendez-vous with Francois Hollande.

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/21_08_12/ikugmyesgf2m.jpg

 

Antonis Samaras. Photo by Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg

 

 

4. Greece is still considering 11.5 billion euro ($14.2 billion) of spending cuts for the next 2 years, according to the nation’s Finance Minister. The package will be ready by the time the Troika (ECB. EU, IMF) returns to Athens at the beginning of September.

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/21_08_12/greece_2161700b.jpg

 

Photo: Bloomberg

 

 

5. The leaders of Germany and France will meet on Thursday trying to reconcile their different views on how to get on in combating the region’s debt crisis. Merkel is expected to underline that Greece has to fulfil its obligations under the most recent 130-billion euro rescue program and shouldn’t expect Germany to approve another bailout.

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/21_08_12/hollande-merkel.jpg

 

Photo from marketnightshift.wordpress.com

 

 

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[fallenDC]

AUD/USD extends the upside

 

AUD/USD rocketed t0 $1.0510 on RBA meeting minutes and risk-on market sentiment. The pair, therefore, managed to bounce back from the lower boundary of an upward channel, existing since June.

 

If AUD/USD manages to close the day above the $1.0500 level, in a near-term further growth towards $1.0600 will become likely. On the upside the pair is limited by the resistance line, connecting 2011 and 2012 maximums. On a downside support lies at $1.0475 (beginning of the May downtrend) and $1.0290 (200-day MA).

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/21_08_12/audusd_12-13.gif

 

Chart. Daily AUD/USD

 

 

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[fallenDC]

EUR/USD jumped above $1.2400

 

EUR/USD jumped to the levels above $1.2400 getting above the 55-day MA to the downtrend resistance line from May maximums. EUR/JPY reached 6-week maximum at 98.60 yen.

 

Euro is supported as the meetings of the euro zone’s leaders which will meet later this week ignited hopes will agree to extend Greece’s fiscal adjustment program. Nomura is optimistic: “They will get there. The euro could move higher. Riskier assets are doing OK.”

 

In addition, Fitch’s Managing Director Riley said that the ECB might act even without the Bundesbank and showed an optimistic outlook regarding Europe adding that Italy doesn’t need more austerity.

 

The key resistance for EUR/USD lies at $1.2450. Commerzbank recommend watching whether the pair will be able to close above the 55-day MA today in New York. There are many sell orders in the $1.2430/50 area, and above it one finds more buy stops.

 

At the same time, it seems that the gloom will never leave the region’s horizon. Standard Chartered warns that “this is a period of calm before a resumption of the bear trend for euro.” The bank predicts EUR to slide to $1.18 by the end of September.

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/21_08_12/daily_eurusd_12-29.gif

 

Chart. Daily EUR/USD

 

 

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[fallenDC]

NZD/USD: technical comments

 

On Tuesday NZD/USD reached $0.8130, moving up for a second consecutive day. The pair, therefore, once again bounced from the upper boundary of the July sideways channel ($0.8067).

 

However, on the upside NZD/USD is limited by a strong resistance line, connecting July 2011 and Feb. 2012 maximums. Further there is a strong resistance around $0.8200. Support lies at $0.8067, $0.7975 (200-day MA) and $0.7840 (July minimums).

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/21_08_12/nzdusd_13-21.gif

 

Chart. Daily NZD/USD

 

 

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[fallenDC]

USD/JPY: technical levels

 

On Monday USD/JPY recoiled down from the 100-day MA at 79.60. At the moment the pair’s trading below this level, but still supported by the 200-day MA at 79.22.

 

Further support lies at 79.06 (5-day MA), 78.90 (50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent advance) and 78.60 (the top of the previous range), 78.30, 78.15. As long as support at 78.60 holds, we’d look for the chance to buy the pair.

 

Bank of America: “US dollar may be poised for more gains versus Japan’s currency if it breaks the top of the weekly Ichimoku Cloud at 80.55/60. A weekly close through here would reinstate the cyclical turn in trend view from USD/JPY bearish to bullish.”

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/21_08_12/daily_usdjpy_15-38.gif

 

Chart. Daily USD/JPY

 

 

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[fallenDC]

Commerzbank: comments on GBP/USD

 

According to Commerzbank analysts, GBP/USD growth remains limited by the $1.5762/80 resistance area. If the pair manages to break above these levels, a rise towards $1.5805 (April minimums) and $1.5904 (61.8% Fib. retracement of a May decline) will become possible.

 

However, as long as the daily close above the $1.5762/80 area is not made, a drop to $1.5575 (August 10 minimum) is on the cards. Next support lies at $1.5490 (August minimum).

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/21_08_12/gbpusd_15-53.gif

 

Chart. Daily GBP/USD

 

 

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[fallenDC]

MIG Bank: trading USD/CAD

 

As we've expected, the pair USD/CAD is on its way down to 0.9800 as last week it breached support of 0.9900.

 

Analysts at MIG Bank claim that the pair is at the last stage of decline from 1.0447. In their view, the 0.9800 level represents strong support. The bank recommends setting buy limit at 0.9835 targeting 0.9970/1.0085/1.0232 and stopping at 0.9700.

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/21_08_12/daily_usdcad_16-35.gif

 

Chart. Daily USD/CAD

 

 

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[fallenDC]

Credit Suisse: bearish on EUR/GBP

 

According to specialists at Credit Suisse, EUR/GBP may drop to 0.7695 (October 2008 minimum), if it breaks below the support at 0.7755 (July minimum). Specialists remain bearish on the euro, even if prices remain in a tight range near-term.

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/21_08_12/eurgbp_17-11.gif

 

Chart. Weekly EUR/GBP

 

 

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