Comments and forex-analytics from FBS Brokerage Company

[fallenDC]

EUR/USD: bulls vs. bears

 

If the pair EUR/USD manages to break above $1.2443 (1-month high, 61.8% retracement of the decline from June 29 maximum), it will be able to rise to $1.2500. Still, it seems that the bulls are moving euro up with great struggle as there are many who wait for the opportunity to sell. If euro’s advance keeps stalling, some bullish players may decide to take profit.

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/07_08_12/h1_eurusd_17-30.gif

 

Chart. H1 EUR/USD

 

 

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[fallenDC]

August 8: forex news

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/08_08_12/utro_eng.jpg

 

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) of stocks rose 0.9%, following a 0.7% advance in the MSCI World Index yesterday. Risk sentiment, however, remains subdued: demand for high-yielding currencies is rather weak. AUD/USD slid from yesterday’s highs below $1.0550, demonstrating a 3-day decline. According to data released today, Australian home loans increased by 1.3% (forecast: 2.1%; previous: -0.9%). NZD/USD fell to $0.8130 levels after touching $0.8218 yesterday. USD/CAD slightly strengthened, though the pair trades below the parity level. GBP/USD remains under pressure ahead of BoE inflation report.

 

USD/JPY rose yesterday testing the upside of its current trading range around 78.65 yen as global stocks rose and the extra yield on 2-year U.S. Treasuries over Japan’s government bonds widened to the most in one month. The pair, however, was contained by resistance and has edged lower today – investors don’t expect much of the BOJ meeting the results of which will be announced tomorrow.

 

EUR/USD has once again begun trading day below $1.24. On the H1 chart we see consolidation in the $1.2443/2365 continue.S&P revised the outlook on Greece’s CCC credit rating from stable to negative saying that the nation risks losing its estimate if it fails to obtain the next disbursement from the EU and IMF rescue package. Spanish 10-year yields closed yesterday at 6.86%, 12 bps up, while Italian ones – at 5.97%, 3 bps down.

 

The Fed’s Chairman Ben Bernanke defended yesterday the central bank’s zero rate policy claiming that it’s necessary “to help the economy recover and restore more normal levels of employment and growth.” According to Bernanke, the effects of the crisis on the US “are pretty significant.”

 

Events to watch today:

 

Euro area: Watch for German data – trade balance at 06:00 GMT and, probably most important, German industrial production at 10:00 GMT. The nation will offer up to 4 billion euro in 10 year bunds at 06:00 GMT.

 

Britain: The Bank of England will release Inflation report (9:30 GMT) which may contain clues for the next moves of the central bank. The BoE will likely lower its current growth forecast as there were enough disappointing data since the report was last time released in May. Lower forecasts increase the likelihood of the BoE’s announcing additional asset purchases in September, though the current round of stimulus finishes only in November. The Bank is expected to predict almost zero growth for the economy in 2012, while just 3 months ago it was forecasting growth of around 0.7%.

 

New Zealand: The nation’s unemployment rate (22:45 GMT) may have declined from 6.7% in Q1 to 6.5% in Q2.

 

 

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[fallenDC]

GBP/JPY: time to buy, says Nomura

 

Analysts at Nomura are pretty sure that risk premiums are set to fall as the odds of the great disaster in Europe diminish. As a result, the specialists claim that it’s time to sell the ultimate safe haven – Japanese yen.

 

Nomura recommends selling yen versus British pound. “Interest rates are so low in Britain that any more quantitative easing isn’t likely to weigh on the pound.” According to the bank, this is already the second chance in 2012 for yen crosses to trade higher. GBP/JPY rose from January minimum in the 117 area to 133 in March, when investors’ risk appetite improved in Q1. The same revival of risk appetite is happening again, with stocks rallying and both the ECB and the Fed expected to unleash a wave of bond-buying to spur economic activity.

 

Note, however, that Nomura warns that current levels are less than perfect for entry, so don’t open large positions, but add on sterling’s declines.

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/08_08_12/daily_gbpjpy_11-21.gif

 

Chart. Daily GBP/JPY

 

 

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[fallenDC]

Key options expiring today

 

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT).

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

EUR/USD: $1.2250, $1.2300, $1.2320, $1.2400, $1.2410, $1.2475, $1.2495;

 

GBP/USD: $1.5600, $1.5810;

 

USD/JPY: 78.50, 78.80, 79.00, 79.85;

 

USD/CHF: 0.9705;

 

AUD/USD: $1.0450, $1.0500, $1.0515;

 

EUR/GBP: 0.7800.

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/01_08_12/flatline.jpg

 

 

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[fallenDC]

AUD/USD: technical comments

 

AUD/USD slid from yesterday’s highs below $1.0550. We see that the market players are unsure: small candles formed this week indicate indecision, especially the ‘spinning top' on Monday. Such dynamics isn’t really surprising after all the way up the pair has made to the upwards so far and some cautiousness ahead of the data releases.

 

Medium-term (daily chart)

 

Aussie trades close to a 4-month high at $1.0603, tested on Tuesday, and the upper boundary of the upward channel existing since mid-June. On the daily and H4 chart the pair trades above the up-directed 200-, 100- and 50-period MAs.

 

In our view, the medium-term uptrend looks rather resilient. The next resistance lies at $1.0640/70 (March 19 and 7 maximums), $1.0750/60 (Sep. and Oct. 2011 maximums) and at $1.0855 (2012 maximum). Support lies at $1.0540, $1.0475 and $1.0435 (August 2 minimum). Bulls have a clear advantage above $1.0475 (April 27 maximum, beginning of a sharp May decline).

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/07_08_12/08_08_12/daily_audusd_08.08_11-56.gif

 

Chart. Daily AUD/USD

 

 

UBS: In an environment where the central banks are maintaining a trend of zero rates, demand for the Aussie is likely to increase, not to mention triple-A demand adding to the interest.

 

Near-term (H4)

 

On the H4 chart we can see a bullish MACD divergence. We concede a correction to $1.0450 (middle of the channel) and to $1.0280 (lower boundary and the 200-day MA). Exit from the upward channel would pave the ground for a further decline to $1.0176 (July 25 minimum) and to $1.0100 (July 12 minimum).

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/07_08_12/08_08_12/h4_audusd_08.08_11-57.gif

 

Chart. H4 AUD/USD

 

 

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[fallenDC]

EUR/USD: ‘inverse head and shoulders’ (RBS)

 

Technical analysts at RBS claim that Friday’s 200-pip advance of EUR/USD completed an ‘inverse head and shoulders’ pattern at the daily chart. In addition, the pair broke above resistance of the downtrend line that began and had held since May 1. The outlook for euro is bullish in the short-term and the single currency may rise to $1.2540. There’s now a support at $1.2341 (neckline).

 

RBS recommend longs on the dips to $1.2293/1.2341 targeting $1.2445 and probably $1.2539.

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/08_08_12/daily_eurusd_12-27.gif

 

Chart. Daily EUR/USD

 

 

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[fallenDC]

GBP/USD ahead of BoE inflation report

 

GBP/USD is currently bouncing back towards $1.5600 psychological level after a fall to $1.5572 low just ahead of the BoE inflation report.

 

According to specialists at ING, the report is expected to be dovish. Both GDP and CPI forecasts are to be revised down, permitting the regulator to adopt more stimulus. However, a new policy easing is unlikely to happen before November, with last QE round introduced by the central bank only in July and the funding for lending scheme launched just recently.

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/07_08_12/08_08_12/h1_gbpusd_08.08_13-09.gif

 

Chart. H1 GBP/USD

 

 

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[fallenDC]

NZD/USD slid from a three-month high

 

On Wednesday NZD/USD slid to $0.8140 levels, demonstrating a two-day decline. On Monday the pair reached a three-month high at $0.8222.

 

H4 chart

 

NZD/USD trades above the up-directed 200-, 100- and 50-day MAs. Today the pair bounced back from the 50-period MA at $0.8122

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/07_08_12/08_08_12/h4_nzdusd_08.08_13-30.gif

 

Chart. H4 NZD/USD

 

 

Daily chart

 

On the daily chart we see a bullish divergence. In our view, these days kiwi’s prospects are worse than Aussie’s as NZD/USD is close to a strong resistance area.

 

The next resistance for the pair lies at $0.8233 (April 26-27 double top), at $0.8316 (April 13 maximum) and at $0.8469 (February 29 maximum). There is also a resistance line, connecting August 2011 and February 2012 maximums. On a downside, support lies at $0.8060 (August 1 minimum, March minimums and early July highs) and at $0.7962 (100- and 200-day MAs crossing).

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/07_08_12/08_08_12/daily_nzdusd_08.08_13-29.gif

 

Chart. Daily NZD/USD

 

 

BNZ: The likelihood of further global policy easing, a high and rising interest rate differential and buoyant soft commodity prices all speak in favor of NZD/USD uptrend. However, this week we expect some consolidation in a $0.8100-0.8245 range.

 

 

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[fallenDC]

USD/JPY’s supported by rising US yields

 

Everyone noticed that USD/JPY is supported by rising US yields, but will this become a trend and even if so, will it be able to ensure recovery of the pair?

 

Both 2-year and 10-year US Treasury yields have reached 1-month maximum amid the improvement of the market’s risk appetite. As a result, the yield spread between US and Japanese debt has widened.

 

Credit Agricole: “Two-year yields have jumped in recent days. As long as US yields move higher then of course USD/JPY will be under upward pressure. However, for bond yields to move higher you need to see some credible signs of U.S. recovery. But the lack of data in the coming days suggests it's not going to happen.” We’d also like to add that yen, on its part, will be supported by the repatriation flow.

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/07_08_12/08_08_12/usjp_2-year.png

 

Yield spread between 2-year US and Japanese bonds. Source: Bloomberg

 

 

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[fallenDC]

USD/CAD: bullish long-term bias (MIG Bank)

 

Technical analysts at MIG bank note that the greenback keeps sliding to 0.9954 versus its Canadian counterpart.

 

The specialists regard this level (support of the trend line connecting July 2011 lows and April 2012 minimums) as an important support saying that above this level the bulls will retain strength of pushing USD/CAD higher. If the pair fails to hold above 0.9954, it will slide to 0.9800. Below the latter, the outlook for USD/CAD will turn bearish.

 

According to the bank, in the longer-term, the ‘falling wedge’ pattern is a bullish signal.

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/07_08_12/08_08_12/daily_usdcad_15-26.gif

 

Chart. Daily USD/CAD

 

 

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[fallenDC]

GBP/USD up on BOE data

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/07_08_12/08_08_12/bank-of-england-007.jpg

 

On Wednesday GBP/USD first fell from $1.5615 to $1.5573 before the BOE report. As widely expected, the Bank of England cut its growth forecast and said inflation will be below its target in two years as the crisis in the euro area and the U.K. fiscal squeeze weigh on demand. The central bank sees annual GDP growth of about 2% in two years, compared with a projection in May of 2.5%. It sees CPI growth at about 1.6% by then, below its 2% goal.

 

Other key points of the BoE report:

•Forecasts are based on $375 billion QE and a rate cut in Q2 2013

•UK demand is expected to remain weak in the near-term

•Euro area crisis contiues to weigh on demand

•Strong sterling may hurt export growth

•Biggest threat to UK is a delay in solution to the Euro crisis

 

Later the British currency bounced back towards yesterday’s high at $1.5685 and tested $1.5672 as the BoE Governor King’s comments pointed to no more rate cuts in the near future. According to him, early indications from FLS scheme are positive, but incertainty coming from the euro area damages demand. King expects the UK GDP to rebound in Q3

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/07_08_12/08_08_12/h4_gbpusd_08.08_15-45.gif

 

Chart. H4 GBP/USD

 

 

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[fallenDC]

BofA: US recovery is limping

 

According to Bank of America, US manufacturing sector was resilient and has already reached the pre-crisis levels. However, 70% of US GDP is based on a service sector, which remains depressed. Specialists think this is the reason why the economy still remains weak and is extremely vulnerable to external shocks.

 

Economists point out that last year the share of manufacturing in the economy increased, but it happened not because of exceptional boom in manufacturing, but because of an exceptionally slow recovery in services.

 

The dynamics of the recovery of both sectors can be seen from the charts below. This revelation means that US economy faces more obstacles than one can see on the surface.

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/07_08_12/08_08_12/goods_0.jpg

 

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/07_08_12/08_08_12/services_0.jpg

 

Source: Bank of Amarica Merill Lynch

 

 

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[fallenDC]

Standard Chartered: BOJ will increase APP

 

Analysts at Standard Chartered believe that USD/JPY will stick to the current levels. On the downside USD/JPY will be supported by the risk of the BOJ intervention. On the upside, its advance will be limited by the expectations of more QE from the Fed. The specialists expect the pair to close Q3 (September) at 79.00 and then to strengthen to finish 2012 at 82.00.

 

Standard Chartered thinks that the Bank of Japan will increase APP (Asset Purchase Program) target by another 5-10 trillion yen tomorrow. As the reasons the specialists cite Japan’s economic growth which is losing momentum, deflationary pressure, strong national currency, expectations of stimulus in the US and Europe. If it happens, markets will be surprised and yen will weaken, though only in the short term.

 

According to Standard Chartered, Japanese economy will add 2.2% in 2012 and 2% in 2013, while inflation will remain benign at 0.2% in 2012 picking up slightly to 0.3% in 2013. The bank claims that in the longer-term, “the case for more sustained yen’s weakness is building: Japan's shift away from nuclear power adds to the negative terms-of-trade and current account outlook and the nation faces substantial sovereign debt risks of its own.”

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/07_08_12/08_08_12/article-1199815-05aaff380000044d-676_468x326.jpg

 

 

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[fallenDC]

August 9: forex news

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/09_08_12/utro_eng.jpg

 

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) of stocks rose for a fourth consecutive day. AUD/USD opened a new 4-month high at $1.0612 after data showed Australian labor market is strong. The number of people employed rose in July by 14K vs. expected increase of 10K. The jobless rate fell from a revised 5.3% in June to 5.2% last month. However, Aussie’s gains were tempered on the news from China.

 

China released a bunch of important data today: CPI dropped to a 30-month low, rising by 1.8% y/y in July (consensus: 1.7%; previous: 2.2%). PPI dropped by 2.9% (consensus: -2.5%; previous: -2.1%). According to economists, slowing Chinese inflation may offer room for further easing in Asia’s biggest economy, what will support AUD and NZD in the medium term. There are reasons to expect more loose policy in China indeed: the nation’s retail sales added only 13.1% in July (vs. consensus of +13.6%), while industrial production rose only by 9.2% (vs. consensus of +9.8%).

 

NZD/USD declined to $0.8130 levels. The jobless rate increased to 6.8% from 6.7% in Q1, exceeding the median estimate for 6.5%. Employment fell by 0.1% vs. a forecasted 0.3% growth. According to specialists, negative data is likely to accelerate kiwi’s downward correction.

 

The consensus opinion won: the Bank of Japan left its monetary policy unchanged (benchmark rate below 0.1%, asset-purchase fund at 45 trillion yen ($573 billion) and lending facility at 25 trillion yen). Japan’s machinery orders, an indicator of capital spending, rose 5.6% in June after slumping by 14.8% in May, though economists expected 11.1% gain. USD/JPY is trading to the upside fluctuating up and down on the H1 chart. The spread for 2-year notes increased to 18.4 yesterday, the highest level since July 5. The yield spread between 10-year US Treasuries over JGB widened to more than 2-month maximum.

 

EUR/USD is capped by the 50-hour MA at $1.2385. Yesterday the pair tested the levels below support at $1.2340. On Wednesday Toronto-based DBRS Inc. cut credit ratings on Spain and Italy. Spanish 10-year yields rose to 6.87% yesterday. German industrial production declined by 0.9% in June from May, when it gained a revised 1.7%. Tomorrow watch for French data. Soft data in the euro area hinders further advance of the single currency.

 

GBP/USD strengthens for a third consecutive day, while USD/CAD demonstrates a five-day drop, remaining below parity. Canada will release trade balance and housing market data later today.

 

Also watch US data releases at 12:30 GMT. American trade deficit probably shrank in June as cheaper oil reduced the import bill and slower global growth led to reduced demand for American-made goods. According to the consensus forecast, the gap probably narrowed to $47.5 billion, the 4-month minimum, from $48.7 billion in May. Weekly jobless benefit claims are expected to edge up to 371K from 365K in the previous week.

 

 

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[fallenDC]

Key options expiring today

 

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT).

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

EUR/USD: $1.2250, $1.2280, $1.2295, $1.2300, $1.2305, $1.2310, $1.2315, $1.2400, $1.2500;

 

GBP/USD $1.5600, $1.5650;

 

USD/JPY: 78.00, 78.15, 79.10;

 

AUD/USD: $1.0550;

 

USD/CAD: 0.9975;

 

EUR/JPY: 97.55, 97.75, 98.00;

 

EUR/GBP: 0.7800, 0.7825, 0.7890, 0.7900

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/01_08_12/flatline.jpg

 

 

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[fallenDC]

EUR/GBP: trading comments

 

EUR/GBP declines for a third consecutive day. The pair slid below 0.7900 after peaking at 0.7961 on Monday.

 

We expect EUR/GBP to continue a long-term downtrend after a two-week upward correction. The inability to overcome the 50-day MA counts in favor of a downward movement. A break below 0.7845 (23.6% Fib. retracement of a June-July decline) will signal a slide back to 0.7753 (July 23 minimum). In a longer term key support lies in the 0.7694 area (2008 minimums).

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/09_08_12/daily_eurgbp_09.08_12-40.gif

 

 

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[fallenDC]

EUR’s down on ECB Monthly Bulletin

 

The ECB released it monthly Bulletin – report which explains the central bank’s monetary policy decision. Euro zone’s growth estimate was revised down to -0.3% (from -0.2% in Q2) in 2012, to +0.6% (from +1.0%) in 2013. 2012 HICP and long term inflation forecasts at 2.3% and 2.0%. The 2013 HICP was lowered from 1.8% to 1.7%, and inflation in 2014 is expected to end at 1.9%.

 

EUR/USD is once again testing support at $1.2340.

 

Support: $1.2290, $1.2240, $1.2130, $1.2040.

 

Resistance: $1.2400, $1.2440, $1.2500.

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/09_08_12/h1_eurusd_12-54.gif

 

Chart. H1 EUR/USD

 

 

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[fallenDC]

EUR: analysts are bearish

 

Commerzbank: We suspect that the move higher has terminated ahead of the -month channel resistance at $1.2500.

 

St. George Bank: It’s hard to see any upside for the euro at the moment. Economic data has been quite soft. There’s still a bit of uncertainty about what the ECB can do and will do in addressing the crisis.

 

UBS: As euro short-covering had been completed, the currency is expected to stick to narrow ranges until fresh factors emerged.

 

Mizuho: We’re looking for the euro to go to parity. It will take about a year, but we are heading in that direction.

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/09_08_12/10+years+since+introdution+euro+9jswsm3tnoyl.jpg

 

 

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[fallenDC]

RBC: reasons against carry trade

 

Analysts at RBC recommend investors to stay away from the carry trade. Carry trade is buying high yielding currencies and selling low yielding ones.

 

The specialists note that euro may seem a good funding currency now. However, they remind that interest rates are low in many countries, not just in the euro zone, and that limits the potential for a carry trade to be profitable. In addition, although volatility has declined recently, it doesn’t compensate the compression of yield spreads. RBC underlines that “the carry-to-risk ratio – a good barometer of the efficacy of carry as an investment strategy – is still far below its historical average.”

 

If you want to try carry trades even after all these warnings, RBC advices to use for funding not euro, but… Canadian dollar! The proposed trade is longs on AUD/CAD.

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/09_08_12/daily_audcad_16-16.gif

 

Chart. Daily AUD/CAD

 

 

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[fallenDC]

USD/CHF: bulls vs. bears

 

US dollar bulls don’t let USD/CHF reverse down despite the ‘head and shoulders’ pattern formed on the daily chart. The pair tested the levels below the 1-year support line, but recoiled up from the 50-day MA. At the same time, there’s resistance around 0.9800 (downtrend resistance from July maximums, 100-period MA on H4 chart).

 

Don’t forget that 200-week MA at 1.0030 is looming above the pair – the last time pair traded above this line on a sustainable basis was in 2002.

 

The main technical levels are marked on the chart.

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/09_08_12/daily_usdcad_17-56.gif

 

Chart. Daily USD/CHF

 

 

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[fallenDC]

AUD/USD: slowed growth

 

AUD/USD remains close to the top of the upward channel. Today the pair opened a new high at $1.0612, but then once more slid below the strong $1.0600 level. The pair has been consolidating at current levels for four days.

 

On the H4 chart we can see a bullish MACD divergence. However, we expect the bullish trend to continue until there is a clearer sign of a trend reversal. Next resistance lies at $1.0636 (March 19 maximum) and at $1.0670 (March 8 maximum). Support is seen at $1.0529 (August 8 minimum) and at $1.0475 (beginning of a downtrend).

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/09_08_12/daily_audusd_09.08_16-01.gif

 

Chart. H4 AUD/USD

 

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/09_08_12/daily_audusd_09.08_16-03.gif

 

Chart. Daily AUD/USD

 

 

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[fallenDC]

August 10: economic & forex news

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/10_08_12/utro_eng.jpg

 

Friday began with discouraging Chinese trade balance data (trade surplus came at 25.1B in July vs. 35.1B expected) which dragged Asian markets lower.

 

Aussie took a blow: AUD/USD slid from the 4-month maximum above $1.0600 to the levels around $1.0520. The RBA monetary policy statement was relatively hawkish: the central bank upgraded the nation’s growth forecast, but warned of stronger AUD hurting the economy. NZD/USD keeps descending from Monday’s maximum at $0.8220.

 

EUR/USD is set for the weekly drop. During the Asian session it edged a bit lower and is now trading under $1.2300. Today in the euro area watch for German CPI (5:00 GMT), French industrial production (only a small gain is expected in June after a 1.9% slump in May) and French budget balance (6:45 GMT). No critical debt auctions are scheduled.

 

Britain will release PPI figures at 08:30 GMT – the data may affect EUR/GBP. GBP/USD recoiled down from 100-day MA at $1.5685.

 

Treasury 2-year note yields touched 0.28% yesterday, the highest since July 6. Spanish 10-year yield is little changed to the downside at 6.85%.

 

 

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[fallenDC]

Key options expiring today

 

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT).

 

Here are the key options expiring today:

 

EUR/USD: $1.2200, $1.2400, $1.2425, $1.2450;

 

GBP/USD: $1.5825;

 

USD/JPY: 77.50, 78.50, 79.00, 79.50, 80.00;

 

AUD/USD: $1.0350, $1.0550;

 

EUR/GBP: 0.7875.

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/01_08_12/flatline.jpg

 

 

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AUD/USD fell on China's data

 

AUD/USD slid from a four-month high at $1.0612 to $1.0520 levels on the back of the RBA statement and negative China’s trade balance data. Narrowed trade surplus of the second largest world economy revived talks of China’s "hard landing" and sapped demand for high-yielding assets.

 

As can be seen from the daily chart, AUD/USD shifted to the upper half of the upward channel, existing since June. In a medium term we expect the bullish trend to continue. However, in a near term the pair has potential to drop to $1.0475 (April 27 maximum) and to $1.0445 (July 19 maximum) support levels. On the upside resistance lies at $1.0556 (March 27 maximum), $1.0612 and at $1.0636 (March 19 maximum). The pair repulsed from a resistance line, connecting July 2011 and February 2012 maximums.

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/10_08_12/daily_audusd_10.08_10-45.gif

 

Chart. Daily AUD/USD

 

 

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[fallenDC]

EUR/USD: technical update

 

EUR/USD is now trading within a kind of uptrend which started to manifest itself from late July. The pair moved up with 1 or 2 strong pushes which came by the end of the week and then drifted lower. Among the fundamental drivers were Draghi’s promises (July 26) and good NFP (August 3).

 

The pair has good support around $1.2260 (former downtrend resistance, close to the recent uptrend support line and 100-period MA on H4 chart). 50-period MA is getting ready to intersect the 200-period one bottom-up (H4) – bullish signal. The level itself ($1.2325) acts as resistance. There’s more of resistance at the daily chart (50-day MA at $1.2400). Also note that there may be quite many sell stops set below $1.2240.

 

Analysts at Commerzbank think that the recent move higher was an ‘a-b-c’ correction (Elliott Wave Theory). In their view, if EUR/USD goes under $1.2214, it will slide to $1.2042 (July minimum) and then to $1.1876 (2010 minimum).

 

http://www.fbs.com/sites/default/files/image/analysis/August2012/10_08_12/h4_eurusd_11-06.gif

 

Chart. H4 EUR/USD

 

 

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