Comments and forex-analytics from FBS Brokerage Company

[fallenDC]

Euro area: sovereign bond yields are surging

 

The single currency got today under negative pressure. The pair EUR/USD dropped from the levels in the $1.3800 area where it started the week to the $1.3500 zone. The pair EUR/JPY hit 1-month minimum at 100.93 yen.

 

European bond yields surged increasing concerns about the region’s debt crisis. Italy’s 10-year yield approached the critical level of 7%. The yield spreads between 10-year debt of Spain, France, Austria and Belgium and similar German bunds all widened to the maximal level since the euro was adopted in 1999.

 

The economic data were also discouraging: German ZEW Economic Sentiment index declined this month to the lowest since October 2008 of minus 55.2.

 

Strategists at Nordea warn that if euro falls below last week's minimum at $1.3480, the number of bears will sharply increase. Analysts at Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ believe that the fate of the currency union is still vague as the European nations may move closer to fiscal integration or break apart. In their view, EUR/USD will drop to $1.25 during the next 6 months.

 

http://static2.fbs.com/upload/image/technical_analis/November2011/15_11_11/.thumbs/3be23cbb73d2469a057b12dfccb5f5ce_500_0_0.jpg

[fallenDC]

On RBA rates and Aussie’s prospects

 

News about new technocratic governments in Italy and Greece brought only short-term relief to the market. Yesterday’s surge of euro zone bond yields threw investors into the risk-averse mode that affected such risk-sensitive pair as AUD/USD.

 

Analysts at RBC Capital Markets believe that Australian dollar’s dynamics versus the greenback will remain extremely volatile as Aussie is closely correlated with the equity markets which are seized by uncertainty. In their view, the risks for AUD/USD are to the downside.

 

Dow Jones reports that the interest rate swaps market is currently pricing in a 100% chance of a rate cut by the RBA in December, though the surveyed economists expect the RBA to keep the rates unchanged.

 

This month RBA lowered its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 4.5% citing the projected slowing inflation and the risks posed by the euro zone debt crisis. The central bank gave no hints on further rate cuts in its meeting minutes released yesterday. According to the document, the policymakers have also discussed the possibility of staying on hold. The RBA underlined that the mining industry could become the driver of the nation’s economic growth that would require more tight monetary policy in the medium term.

 

Analysts at Westpac, however, claim that the mentioning of the risks connected with Europe means that the RBA left the door open for further easing, and look forward to 75 basis points of rate cuts starting in February.

 

http://static.fbs.com/upload/image/technical_analis/November2011/16_11_11/.thumbs/ca8f1f54b54b82ace2bc53224b8bc615_500_0_0.jpg

[fallenDC]

Wells Fargo: negative forecast for EUR/USD

 

Analysts at Wells Fargo are bearish on the prospects of the single currency versus the greenback during the next 12 months. The specialists believe that euro will be affected by the increasing borrowing costs for the peripheral euro area nations and the risk of recession in the region.

 

According to the bank, EUR/USD will fall to $1.3000 in 3 months, to $1.2800 in 6 months and to $1.2600 in 9 months and hit $1.2400 in November 2012.

 

daily eurusd 13-00

 

http://static.fbs.com/upload/image/technical_analis/November2011/16_11_11/.thumbs/177ac9d43a11a0be774500abc0c632e9_500_0_0.jpg

[fallenDC]

Japan: monetary policy, economy, yen’s rate

 

The Bank of Japan left its benchmark rate unchanged at the minimal levels of 0-0.1% and the asset-buying fund at 20 trillion yen ($260 billion) after increasing it by 5 trillion yen in October.

 

As Japan’s economy strongly depends on the external demand for Japanese goods, deepening European debt crisis, the flood in Thailand and the risk of global economic slowdown will have a serious negative impact on the nation’s growth prospects.

 

Analysts at Nomura claim that the central bank may augment monetary stimulus if the national currency which is regarded as a refuge keeps strengthening and once again approaches record maximums against its US counterpart.

 

According to Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association, in the first half of 2011yen’s appreciation slashed Japanese carmakers’ profit by 330 billion yen. Japanese GDP rose by 6% in the third quarter on the year-to-year basis as the nation’s economy recovered from the March earthquake. However, during the first 20 days of October exports slashed by 1.6%. Credit Suisse believe Japan’s economy is losing upside momentum since August and that the readings of its indicators will soon start to deteriorate.

 

As for Japan’s intervention policy, analysts at UBS don’t expect any changes. In their view, the nation’s monetary authorities will keep intervening only in case yen’s sharp bounces. As the European debt crisis escalates, Japanese investors trim their overseas assets – primarily euro zone sovereign debt holdings – and repatriate their money making demand for yen increase. That means that yen’s appreciation is caused not only by the speculative inflows, but also by the Japanese real money accounts. In such circumstances Japan will be forced to act, so USD/JPY’s decline will be likely limited.

 

http://static.fbs.com/upload/image/technical_analis/November2011/16_11_11/.thumbs/f76992ea36d43df1db658091514117b0_500_0_0.jpg

[fallenDC]

Feldstein: Greece will have to leave the euro zone

 

Martin Feldstein, professor at Harvard University, who has foreseen in 1998 that the euro zone will end up with the necessity of bailing out its members, claims now that the currency union will survive, even though Greece will leave the bloc within a year.

 

According to Feldstein, if Greece doesn’t default and devalue its currency, it will face constant economic slump. The specialists underline that even if the nation’s debt was wiped out Greece would have an unbearable a current-account imbalance which could be eliminated only by abandoning euro and devaluation.

 

According to the European Commission, Greece’s debt will reach 163% of GDP this year.

 

Feldstein claims that Italy is in better situation than Greece due to the stronger economy and budget and smaller current-account deficit.

 

It’s also necessary to note that the economist advises the European Central Bank to resist pressure and avoid increasing purchases of Italian bonds as this would distort financial markets and reduce the urgency for the government to restore fiscal order.

[fallenDC]

Societe Generale: comments on EUR/JPY

 

Analysts at Societe Generale warn that the single currency may keep declining versus Japanese yen and fall to October 4 minimum at 100.75 yen. The specialists underline that EUR/JPY has eroded support in the 104.90/104.75 zone.

 

According to the bank, bearish pressure will ease only if the pair returns above 104.75. In such case euro will get chance to rise to October 31 maximum at 111.60 yen.

 

http://static2.fbs.com/upload/image/technical_analis/November2011/16_11_11/.thumbs/9c4624c06441e3c4d25f37678c54ec93_500_0_0.jpg

[fallenDC]

HSBC, Rabobank on the factors influencing EUR/USD

 

Analysts at HSBC claim that the fair value of the European currency is in the $1.20/$1.30 area. However, even despite the escalating crisis euro keeps trading above these levels. The specialists see 2 reasons for that.

 

Firstly, euro is supported by monetary inflows even though some of them are the result of European banks bringing capital home in an effort to defend themselves against possible losses on their holdings of euro-zone bonds. The current account of the euro area as a whole is almost balanced and there are positive portfolio and merger and acquisition inflows.

 

Secondly, as the consequences of the currency union’s break up are expected to be terrible, investors are betting that the policy makers will find a way to save the bloc. In addition, there is also a chance that the member nations will move to closer fiscal coordination.

 

Analysts at Rabobank add that much may be explained by the weakness of US dollar which showed the worst performance among the other major this year but has regained some safe haven status because of the European turmoil. At the same time, there are pairs with much stronger downtrend for the common currency: EUR/JPY fell from April maximum at 123.32 yen to the levels in the 103 yen area.

 

http://static2.fbs.com/upload/image/technical_analis/November2011/16_11_11/.thumbs/45c8f96c3e4f768d02da989ca94df482_500_0_0.jpg

[fallenDC]

Commerzbank: comments on GBP/USD

 

Technical analysts at Commerzbank believe that after British pound has broken support of the 55-day MA and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $1.5825 it’s poised versus the greenback down to $1.5632 (October 18 minimum) and then to $1.5271 (October 6 minimum).

 

In the longer term the specialists expect sterling to slide to the support line of the uptrend from 2009 to 2011 at $1.5050.

 

According to the bank, resistance for GBP/USD is found at $1.6060 (downtrend line) and $1.6136 (200-day MA). The outlook for the pair will remain negative as long as it’s trading below $1.6185, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of pound’s decline from August maximums.

 

http://static.fbs.com/upload/image/technical_analis/November2011/17_11_11/.thumbs/1abf271f87d21360e6ef02cf844854f7_500_0_0.jpg

[fallenDC]

RBC: euro managed to recover a bit versus dollar

 

The single currency has managed to recover a bit versus the greenback after it slumped earlier this week to the minimal level since October 10 in the $1.3420 area.

 

Analysts at RBC claim that euro got lift from short-covering and the advance of US stock futures. The specialists say that the further dynamics of EUR/USD today will depend on the results of Spanish and French bond auctions.

 

In addition, the pair’s rebound may be explained by the speculation that the Fed will do additional quantitative easing. It’s recommended to pay attention to the speech of New York FRB President William Dudley at 5:50 p.m. GMT.

 

The market is also looking to see the increase in US Jobless claims (1:30 p.m. GMT).

 

At the same time one should remember that the situation in the euro area remains very tense. Strategists at Brown Brothers Harriman warn traders that if euro breaks below $1.3400, it will slide to October minimum at $1.3145.

 

http://static2.fbs.com/upload/image/technical_analis/November2011/17_11_11/.thumbs/3d7358fe9586a763a6bafcc4c8ecb426_500_0_0.jpg

[fallenDC]

Danske Bank: yen will keep strengthening

 

Analysts at Danske Bank expect Japanese yen to keep strengthening versus the greenback due to its safe haven status and Japan’s current account surplus.

 

The specialists expect USD/JPY to renew the record minimum sliding to 75 yen in 3 months and to 74 yen in 6 months.

 

In their view, loose monetary policy of the Federal Reserve is going to be more aggressive than the one of the Bank of Japan. As a result, yen’s appreciation will be interrupted only by the occasional interventions, but their effect will be short-lived.

 

http://static.fbs.com/upload/image/technical_analis/November2011/17_11_11/.thumbs/7fec9635cabccb0b551f01bc5c662689_500_0_0.jpg

[fallenDC]

BoA Merrill Lynch: sell GBP/USD

 

Currency strategists at Bank of America Merrill Lynch note that the euro zone’s debt turmoil that threatens recession has a negative impact on the situation in UK as about 30% of the nation’s exports go to Europe and only 10% to the United States.

 

As a result, the specialists expect sterling to stay under pressure versus the greenback. The bank advises traders to sell GBP/USD in the $1.5800 area stopping above $1.6100. According to Merrill Lynch, in the near term the pair will slide to $1.54, while in the medium term it will be poised to hit $1.50.

 

The analysts note that the chances that British pound will be a safe haven from the European crisis are low.

 

http://static.fbs.com/upload/image/technical_analis/November2011/17_11_11/.thumbs/375b6d34ddf50c5e41f746b19ec8af89_500_0_0.jpg

[fallenDC]

UBS about Spain-related risks

 

Economists at UBS give 3 reasons to be concerned about Spain’s economic prospects: firstly, the high possibility that the country misses its deficit-reduction target, secondly, the risk of Spain’s falling into recession the next year and, thirdly, the precarious position of Spanish banks which will likely need more state money.

 

Spanish Finance Ministry announced that the nation’s GDP will add 0.8% in 2011 failing to meet the 1.3% growth target. Spain’s economy stagnated in the third quarter. The country’s jobless rate is close to 23%.

 

It’s too early to make predictions whether the deficit goal of 6% of GDP will be attained this year as the regions’ third-quarter budget data aren’t available yet. In 2010 Spain’s shortfall was equal to 9.3% of GDP.

 

Spain faces general elections on Sunday, November 20. The ruling Socialist Party is likely to lose to the opposition People’s Party which pledges to meet the deficit goal of 4.4% of GDP in 2012.

 

The 10-year Spanish bond yield rose to 6.4% for the first time since August. The specialists warn that the market’s rather optimistic attitude to Spain in comparison with Italy may change in the coming months or even weeks.

[fallenDC]

Capital Economics: the BoE will increase QE

 

The Bank of England reduced its forecast for UK economic growth in 2012 from 2% to 1% claiming that British economy will suffer from the euro zone’s debt crisis. The central bank also slashed outlook for CPI growth rate claiming that by the end of the next year inflation will fall from the current 5% level below the 2% target.

 

Economists say that although the BoE didn’t signal further easing the market now expects it to expand its QE program in 2011 by at least 50 billion from the current 275 billion pounds.

 

Analysts at Capital Economics think that the central bank’s inflation report suggests that rates will stay on the minimal levels for the foreseeable future and that British economy will likely need even more loose monetary policy.

 

The specialists think that even the revised forecast of the central bank seems to be too optimistic. In their view, Britain’s economy will stagnate in 2012.

 

Capital Economics projects the 75 billion pounds of additional asset purchases in February but adds that if the economic data remains weak during the next 2 weeks, the BoE will have to announce extra support already in December.

 

Analysts at Nomura expect the central bank to expand stimulus by 50 billion pounds in February and 25 billion pounds in May.

 

http://static.fbs.com/upload/image/technical_analis/November2011/17_11_11/.thumbs/985b1c9b9830102fb681750aa9d7120d_500_0_0.jpg

[fallenDC]

Analysts are still negative on euro

 

Spain’s borrowing costs rose to the maximal level since 1997 – the nation’s 10-year bond auction today has fueled concerns about the spreading of the European crisis to France and other core euro zone economies, such as the Netherlands and Finland.

 

Short-term forecasts

 

Morgan Stanley: negative outlook for the single currency. The specialists advise to sell euro targeting $1.31 lowering stops to $1.3580.

 

UBS: if EUR/USD breaks below support at $1.3406, it will begin declining to $1.3346.

 

Middle-term forecasts

 

Nomura: euro will slip to $1.30 by the end of the year, so it’s recommended to sell EUR/SUD.

 

Brown Brothers Harriman: the pair will finish 2011 at $1.29.

 

Mizuho Corporate Bank: euro will fall to $1.30 by the year-end, trading will be very volatile.

 

Citigroup: EUR/USD will decline to $1.31 by the end of 2011 and to $1.25 in the first half of 2012.

 

http://static2.fbs.com/upload/image/technical_analis/November2011/17_11_11/.thumbs/df5e2a019ee24ffb1a1ad74b7a3013d5_500_0_0.jpg

[fallenDC]

Merkel proposed to change EU’s treaties

 

German Chancellor Angela Merkel proposed today to change the EU's treaties making the European institutions able to intervene in national budgets in case deficit rules were breached. In her view, complaints should be brought to the European Court. Merkel thinks that the European Union needs greater integration.

 

Here are some of Merkel’s comments (from Reuters):

 

“I am convinced that only political solutions can resolve the situation… A breakthrough to a new Europe can only happen if we are ready to change our treaties.”

 

“This can be limited to euro states, it can be done in the form of a protocol ... it would be a very limited change to the treaty”.

 

“But national governments must be prepared to tie themselves to the community in a binding way.”

 

“There are ... many good political and economic reasons to further integrate the 27-member EU, as opposed to the 17-member euro zone”.

[fallenDC]

Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. GBP/USD

 

Weekly GBP/USD

 

British currency keeps trading within the Ichimoku Cloud. The bears managed to lower pound to the Turning line (2) breaching the Standard line (1).

 

As a result, sterling is currently supported only by Tenkan-sen (2) and the lower border of Kumo – Senkou Span B (4), while resistance for pound is provided by Kijun-sen (1) and Senkou Span A (3).

 

The bearish Cloud retains its size (5). Kijun and Tenkan are horizontal.

 

http://static.fbs.com/upload/image/technical_analis/Ichimoky/November2011/21_11_11/acf840205deb6ebd61b93151f989fd5d.gif

 

 

Daily GBP/USD

 

As we’ve expected, last week the bulls gave up to resistance in the $1.6100 area. At first there was a sharp decline, but by Thursday the bulls managed to stop the decline and make the pair consolidate.

 

The prices went down breaking the Turning line and then the Standard line. Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen approached each other preparing to form the “bearish cross” (1). The bullish Ichimoku Cloud (3) retained its size.

 

Pound is likely to dip this week at least to Senkou Span A (2).

 

http://static2.fbs.com/upload/image/technical_analis/Ichimoky/November2011/21_11_11/0d72e642ae37fd29fad1cf1add830b42.gif

[fallenDC]

Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/JPY

 

Weekly USD/JPY

 

Japanese currency keeps gradually appreciating versus its US counterpart because investors regard yen as a refuge. This week the confidence in US dollar will be especially weak as it’s expected that the Democrats and the Republicans in the Supercommittee will fail to reach a deal on reduction of US budget deficit by $1.2 trillion.

 

The pair USD/JPY doesn’t have any solid support except for the record minimums hit before the last intervention, while the resistance for prices is provided by the Turning line (1), the Standard line (2) and the descending Ichimoku Cloud (3, 4). In addition, Tenkan-sen (1) and Kijun-sen (2) still hold strong “dead cross” in place.

 

http://static2.fbs.com/upload/image/technical_analis/Ichimoky/November2011/21_11_11/1526c4d28205c6942d5da890ca394c76.gif

 

 

Daily USD/JPY

 

On the daily Ichimoku chart the pair’s condition keeps worsening: the bears are pulling the greenback systematically lower so that it got below Kumo (4).

 

The lines Tenkan and Kijun formed the “dead cross”. The lagging Chinkou Span crossed down the price chart while the prices themselves were on the lower edge of the Cloud. Resistance for the pair is provided by the Turning line (1), the Standard line (2) and Senkou Span A (4).

 

The market is still in the state of uncertainty: Kijun-sen, which characterizes the longer-term trend, remains horizontal, while the thin Cloud (3) shows that neither bulls, nor bears have any advantage.

 

http://static.fbs.com/upload/image/technical_analis/Ichimoky/November2011/21_11_11/4c53b8426c92b98461ce080f387cd27f.gif

[fallenDC]

Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/CHF

 

Weekly USD/CHF

 

The bullish attempts to enter the Ichimoku Cloud finally succeeded: the pair managed to overcome resistance of Senkou Span A (3) and got inside Kumo.

 

The descending Cloud (4) is very narrow – the bulls have all chances to make it change direction and reverse the trend upwards. The prices are supported by the Turning line (1). Tenkan-sen (1), Kijun-sen (2) hold though weak, but still “golden cross”.

 

At the same time, Tenkan and Kijun are horizontal that may hold the pair from growth.

 

http://static2.fbs.com/upload/image/technical_analis/Ichimoky/November2011/21_11_11/ebaa80e5a6830a2c87846715a3eb6ff8.gif

 

 

Daily USD/CHF

 

On the daily chart Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, which have so far formed the “golden cross” – the strong bullish signal as the lines intersected above Kumo, are directed horizontally supporting the greenback.

 

The lagging Chinkou Span broke above the price chart while the prices remained above the Cloud, so the outlook is bullish.

 

However, the bullish Ichimoku Cloud has become very thin (3). The bulls will have to make another effort getting above October maximum to in order to turn the overall neutral trend to the positive one.

 

http://static2.fbs.com/upload/image/technical_analis/Ichimoky/November2011/21_11_11/280a5baeabe7d012056f0081542f1169.gif

[fallenDC]

Commerzbank: comments on EUR/USD

 

Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that euro’s decline versus the greenback paused ahead of support provided by the level of 78.6% Fibonacci retracement in the $1.3380/60 area.

 

The specialists think that EUR/USD will correct upwards rising to $1.3835/80. Then the bank expects the pair to resume decline moving down to $1.3270 (support line) and $1.3145 (October 4 minimum).

 

Resistance is seen in the $1.4250/85 zone. The long-term target remains at $1.20.

 

http://static.fbs.com/upload/image/technical_analis/November2011/21_11_11/.thumbs/09c5a5b629b3fd248a7b3a68a13f6598_500_0_0.jpg

[fallenDC]

J.P.Morgan: comments on GBP/USD

 

The Bank of England’s November meeting minutes are released on Wednesday, November 23 at 9:30 a.m. GMT.

 

Analysts at J.P. Morgan believe that British Monetary Policy Committee will sound extremely dovish. The specialists also think that US Congressional deficit supercommittee won’t come up with the debt reduction steps. As a result, the market’s risk aversion, in their view, will remain very strong. Negative risk sentiment, in its turn, will make sterling decline versus the greenback.

 

According to the bank, it’s necessary to sell GBP/USD in the $1.5785 zone stopping above $1.6000 and expecting the pair to drop to $1.5385.

 

http://static2.fbs.com/upload/image/technical_analis/November2011/21_11_11/.thumbs/627480650ec3014739aeaa857481e6d9_500_0_0.jpg

[fallenDC]

J.P. Morgan: buy Aussie versus US dollar

 

Analysts at J.P. Morgan claim that as the situation in the euro area is worsening and the risks of contagion are mounting the possibility that the European Central Bank will have to step in increases.

 

The specialists underline that if the ECB acts, the easing will most likely be conducted in the form of the rate cuts. In such case the yield for the euro gets less attractive. If the central bank decides to undertake bond buying, this will make investors concerned about inflation and weight on the single currency. At the same time, if ECB succeeded, this would be positive for euro.

 

So, the economists expect the risk sentiment to keep deteriorating to the critical point where the ECB will be forced to save the currency union and then revive.

 

The bank thinks that one shouldn’t lose trading opportunity here. According to J.P. Morgan, it’s necessary to open longs on AUD/USD in the $0.9500 area stopping below $0.9100. The economists expect the pair to rebound to $1.0500.

 

http://static.fbs.com/upload/image/technical_analis/November2011/21_11_11/.thumbs/e02251c7ae519a77550db13e34fde53b_500_0_0.jpg

[fallenDC]

Nomura: EUR/USD will fall by the year-end

 

Analysts at Nomura expect the single currency to drop versus the greenback by the end of the year.

 

In their view, as the euro zone’s debt crisis escalates, European investors will likely stop repatriating their assets. That will be another blow for euro.

 

According to the data from the ECB, the region’s investors brought home 65.9 billion euro ($89 billion) in August and 11.6 billion euro in September – these figures significantly exceed 12-month average inflow of 629 million euro.

 

Such demand made EUR/USD trade in November in the $1.3871/1.3422 area which is at least 12% above its lifetime average of $1.2042. Nomura believes that the pair will end 2011 at $1.30.

 

http://static2.fbs.com/upload/image/technical_analis/November2011/22_11_11/.thumbs/b024f6989ac59fece1615aa4313f8b4e_500_0_0.jpg

[fallenDC]

BMO: trading ahead of Supercommittee

 

Here is another trading strategy on the approaching deadline for US Congressional deficit Supercommittee.

 

Analysts at BMO Capital are pessimistic about the committee’s ability to come up with the budget solution.

 

The specialists note that there are 3 possible outcomes: Democrats and Republicans will reach a deal on reducing shortfall by more than $2 trillion, by just the required amount of $1.2 trillion or they’ll fail to find a compromise and the nation will face automatic cuts. In their view, the latter variant is the most likely one.

 

BMO advises traders to sell NZD/USD at current levels stopping above $0.7650 and targeting $0.7175.

 

http://static2.fbs.com/upload/image/technical_analis/November2011/22_11_11/.thumbs/149254edf9628745575f0c4dc7bf433f_500_0_0.jpg

[fallenDC]

Moody's: France’s rating outlook may deteriorate

 

Moody's Investors Service repeated its October warning announcing that the outlook for France’s Aaa may be changed to negative. The risks to the nation’s rating come from the sustained rise in its debt yields combined with weakening economic growth.

 

According to Agence France Tresor, France's average medium- and long-term financing costs for the first 11 months of the year accounted only for 2.78% – the second lowest level since the creation of the single currency. However, last week the nation’s 10-year bond yields surged to 3.7% and the spread over German bunds exceeded 200 basis points rising too the maximal level since France adopted euro.

 

Moody's warned that if the increase in yields by 100 basis points means the increase of funding costs by 3 billion euro a year. Taking into account the fact that French government projects 1% GDP growth in 2012, higher interest burden will make achieving targeted fiscal deficit reduction more difficult.

 

Many analysts believe that the only way to save the region from escalating borrowing costs and the potential recession is the bond buying at the secondary market by the ECB or the EFSF.

[fallenDC]

UBS: forecasts for British pound

 

In the short term the specialists see British pound under pressure versus the greenback as the Bank of England went through additional QE last month.

 

In the medium term, however, UBS expects demand for sterling increase as the UK will act to reduce its budget shortfall and the declining inflation will make the real rates in Britain higher.

 

The bank lifted up its 3- and 6-month forecasts for GBP/USD from $1.48 to $1.52 and from $1.62 to $1.65 respectively. The estimates of EUR/GBP future rate were lowered from 0.88 to 0.85 in 3 months and from 0.83 to 0.81 in half a year.

 

http://static.fbs.com/upload/image/technical_analis/November2011/22_11_11/.thumbs/1468cb828bb322972309f1f0b8152e42_500_0_0.jpg