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5 years of work - no repaint, high quality signals easy


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One possible way I can see to trade this system is to set the stop at the High/Low of the 4h bar with the arrow on and then target the same number of pips for a 1:1 risk/reward.

 

Alternatively, as we're first checking that we're trading with the Weekly and Daily trend, then it could well be safe to target twice as much as the stop, which will give us more leeway in case of false signals which are issued just before the higher timeframe trends change.

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Hi waterskiguy. Thanks for sharing your interesting method, which, although based on indicators, which all of us should know by now are lagging, makes use of the trend on higher TF's. But just to clarify: when you mention the trend, do you mean the canonical definition (i.e. for long the easiest would be higher highs - higher lows) or just the agreement of your 2 lower histograms? My guess would go with the fomer. Thanks
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I have not read all the posts on this thread but based on the first page, I must say waterskiguy got it. Congratulations. Well done. To all other members; quit playing with all the pay for garbage, this is as close as most of you will get to a real pro system. I am not as generous of a man as waterskiguy and I don't think I would have shared it, at least not for free. This is the single most important contribution on this site that I have found in the short time I have been member. I just hope that all will see how good this system is. To the people who will not like it; trade for 4-5 years longer and you will understand it too. And to those who can't make money with this method; get the your mental game straight and please try again. Great way to start the new year. Thank you waterskiguy!
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I totally agree Zoltan.

 

I too have been through the forex grinder like waterskiguy though instead of creating a simple system to trade as he has so generously shared, I seem to have absorbed loads of different trading styles and can call on them as being part of my trading "toolbox" when market conditions are good for a particular style of trading. The more screen time you spend in trades (good or bad) helps you to appreciate the subtleties of the market movements and advance as a trader. Markets are mainly traded by humans and not by algorithmic systems, so why should we expect that the latest marketed EA will make us millions? Banks spend a crazy amount of cash on quants and automated system developers and they've always come unstuck in the end and that's why they still employ stacks of manual traders.

 

Going back to waterskiguy's system which is simply a trend following system (don't forget the turtles guys...) however it makes total sense. Apply the rules and don't deviate from them whatever happens. Most folks are too busy looking for market turning points in the lower timeframe charts that they neglect to see that price is has been moving in the same direction for some time in the higher timeframes. Momentum works in forex in the same as in the physical world and in the higher timeframes it normally takes a big change in sentiment (which can be seen with classic "price action" or candle formations/response to S/R levels etc.), to turn that trend into one going in the opposite direction.

 

Hence, to put the odds on our side, we should always trade with the prevailing trend on the higher timeframes, because at any given point, trends are more likely to continue than turn. This is our "edge".

 

I found an earlier post from waterskiguy elswhere and I think it's worth posting this again here because the advice is right on the nail:

 

"In regards to the trend post .... that is our "job" there is ALWAYS a trending pair or time frame find it and trade it. I never get "butchered" cause I always trade the trend. If the pair is not trending then go to one that is or a time frame that is. Guaranteed the next time you are looking at a pair that is range bound then look at that same pair on different time frames.

Find the time frame that is trending and there ya go .... trade that time frame. A lot of people get stuck on a certain time frame. "what is the best time frame to trade?" My answer to that is "the time frame which is trending". Find it and exploit it."

 

It's always the obvious which will elude us for the longest time :)

 

Cheers waterskiguy !

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I guess I should post the rules for the method ...

 

1. weekly, daily, same trend direction

 

2. go to 4hr chart look for signal to form in the direction of the weekly, daily

 

3. the rsi histogram must b green and white line above the black line for longs

 

4. the rsi histogram must b red and white line below the black line for shorts

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Yes this is indicator based trading, this is designed with the newbie in mind. When a person starts trading they do not have the knowledge or understand the basic principles that govern trading. This is a good solid system that works and is ALMOST based off of price action. You will see when the arrow prints it is either right during a engulfing candle or right after a engulfing candle so even though it is indicator based trading it is close to price action as possible with out having to know price action.
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Hi waterskiguy,

 

First of all, thanks for your new year gift! I'm a newbie to forex, so I think this system is very suitable for me.

 

As you said in the rules, "1. weekly, daily, same trend direction". How do we decide the weekly and daily trend? After we applied the template to H4 chart, we shift it to W1 and D1 to see what is the current arrow direction? Let say, the current W1 has a arrow pointing down, so when we shift the chart to D1, we have to wait a arrow point to down as well?

 

Really appreciate for your sharing.

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What Waterskiguy has learnt over 5 years, is that develop your own system, test it, make your rules as simple as possible so that you will follow them with ease, then stop tweaking the method.

 

Any system will have losses, it is important that you do not keep jumping over to another system, or dump a system at the first time it makes a loss. You will be forever looking for the holy grail, magic indicator etc.

 

We as small traders cannot control the market, all we can do is enter the market with the highest probability of winning, there is no certainty in this, the only thing we do have control over is our risk.

 

Any system will give you entry signals, its once you have entered the market, and then how you behave from then on, will determine whether you will make a success of trading.

 

Treat trading as a business, and manage your profit & loss professionally, by that I mean, being properly capitalised at the start, have realistic expectations of profit, believe in your business model, know the market you are trading, know your tools & your limitations and most of all, actually make a serious effort to work at this business.

You must record & log your activities, not just your profits & losses, and give your method time to work. Analyse your results weekly & monthly. Look at your bottom line (in any business)....Profit.

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Appreciate all the thanks and positive comments.

 

I will be posting as much as I can on my blog about rules etc etc for this trading method.

 

Alphatrader.ca

 

KEEP IN MIND this is a method I designed fr bits n pieces through my learning curve, it was the system

I used UNTIL I became fluent in reading price action.

 

So even though I will be posting the rules, examples on my blog, most of my trades now days are based

off of 2 or 3 candle set ups, chart patterns, trend lines, s/r of various types - pp's, fib's ...etc etc

 

So just make sure if you are new to trading that the two styles that I trade do not confuse you.

 

If you are new at trading get good at following a set of rules and indicator based trading. I think this method can help

tremendously.

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