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I had a good start to the day today: I got +67 Pips today on my first trade, at 09:30 GMT on EURUSD M5

Well done, but could you please point out your entry a bit better? There's no signal at that time. My signal would have been at 8am GMT as shown in the pic

http://content.screencast.com/users/alright/folders/Jing/media/2082e736-0c95-4641-9ff8-bcfb5c514062/2010-07-13_1124.png

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Well done, but could you please point out your entry a bit better? There\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\'s no signal at that time. My signal would have been at 8am GMT as shown in the pic

 

My bad, I meant GBPUSD sorry. But here is the screenshot anyway.

 

http://img534.imageshack.us/img534/6034/130710gbpusd.jpg

 

By the way, with my entry was I right to wait until the previous bar closed or could I have entered on the bar that gives the signal (A bar earlier)?

Edited by chrisbenjy
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Considering the filters, the close of that candle you marked is the exact entry point where to enter that trade, which would still be at 8.35 GMT on my chart.

Regarding your pics, you can click the icon indicated by an arrow in my pic, then you'll see a pop up window where you paste your link and you'll get the wrapped test as shown.

http://content.screencast.com/users/alright/folders/Jing/media/46cffcd9-aea3-4768-a7e5-aa4d3b8a2543/2010-07-13_2335.png

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The system seems to give a lot of false signals, which is a shame because when a signal occurs that isn't false it usually results in lots of pips.

 

http://img693.imageshack.us/img693/3118/falsesignal.jpg

 

As you can see in the image, waddah is in agreement in previous bar, MA has changed colour, and BB is giving correct signal. However, the signal was false and the trade would have been -52 pips if I didn't have a 15 pip stop loss. This is a regular occurrence.

 

I created an EA for this strategy and the back test does not look good on any currency. The system will deteriorate your balance in about 2 months from false signals.

 

Therefore I think aspects of the system need refining.

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Hi Chris,

 

Out of interest, how does your EA perform using a 15M chart and only trading between 06:00-18:00 GMT ?

 

Use the change of Waddar to exit early and also have a fixed target of 50 pips and stop of 20 pips.

 

I am currently performing a back test on EURUSD with the settings you mentioned. So far the results look reasonable. I think the problem I had with the strategy is that my stop was too tight (15 pips) so trades could not breath. However, I still feel that we need to try to find a way to filter out many of the false signals.

 

I will update the post with the back test results once it finishes.

 

Chris

 

EDIT: I am about half of the way through the back test and it is not looking good. I only did a one month backtest (14.06.10 to 14.07.10) so I could get a brief idea of the profitability. The problem is a very poor winning percentage. There are huge amounts of losses, but one winning trade can often bring home 3 times the value of a 50 pip stop out.

Edited by chrisbenjy
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My back test finished, here is the result with 2% Risk on each trade, $3000 deposit between period of 16/06/2010 to 16/07/2010.

 

http://img153.imageshack.us/img153/4674/indobt.gif

 

Have you been experiencing good results with the strategy? If you have then I may have programmed the strategy into an EA incorrectly or something, because that back test shows poor results; the EA was operating below the initial deposit most even finished negative.

 

The middle part of the back test looks very profitable, if we can find out what happened on those days then we might be able to refine the strategy.

 

Chris

Edited by chrisbenjy
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Hmmm

 

First of all I am not using that set up anymore. I am in private testing now We are experiencing a average of 6% growth per day.

A lot of what I am doing cannot be revealed on a public forum but I will give you something that will help your tests and trading.

Get rid of the TDI, keep the Waddah(s) You are not to use the BB squeeze as a normal indicator it is only there to show you the potential of a possible large movement ahead. This system cannot be back-tested. It's not traded like this. It's more than just a mechanical system.

Good luck

Patheway

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Hi Chris,

 

Thanks for running the test anyway. I've been observing the indicators on 1M, 5M and 15M charts and I noticed that there were less false signals on the 15M chart. Plus the times of largest volatility in the markets in general will be from 06-18 GMT which should cut out false signals in less volatile times.

 

Filtering bad signals is tricky as we always end up filtering out some really good trades too. As Patheway says, there's a lot more involved in manually trading the system. For example in the failed trade on your chart - would you have bought at that point if you were manually trading ?

 

Prior price action was a double top and the failed trade was taken at the lower high after this move and price went down immediately showing that a potential break of resistance had failed. Manually trading we'd have been very cautious about entering long at this point, and it would be wise to wait for price to show where it wanted to go next rather than just relying on the basic entry signal.

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