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Why Not to Trade MA Crossovers..


sabtron

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Hello,

 

Guy, ever wondered why your crossover plans sometimes fails??

 

- Cross over does not mean the market is turning... does it? Remember this is comparison of 2 MA of different period not what the price is doing..

- Best way to trade the cross over wait for the cross and confirm the trend by having the 2 MA running all most in Parallel and widening this means we have a strong trend..

 

Hope this observation will help someone.

 

Regards

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Re: Why Not to Trade MA Crossovers..

 

... Best way to trade the cross over wait for the cross and confirm the trend by having the 2 MA running all most in Parallel and widening this means we have a strong trend...

That's MACD. MACD changes sign on the crossover, and increasing MACD indicates divergence of two MAs or decreasing indicates convergence, hence it's name.

regards

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Re: Why Not to Trade MA Crossovers..

 

basic problem with ma cross is the cross comes too late after price has already done its thing and also ma cross will kill you in a ranging market. First problem can be handled by entering not on a cross but when price moves convincingly above or below both MA's (need a good momentum filter) - second problem can be handled by your favorite trend filter - or only taking signals in the direction of the longer term trend.

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Re: Why Not to Trade MA Crossovers..

 

Clarence Chee from T3B Forex introduces modified MA in his

trading system especially PIPS Intraday Trading System.

He calls it HMA (Hull Moving Average). It is designed to be

used with other trend identification indicator and to be applied

on H1 time frame. It seems quite succesful.

 

Just around the other corner, I prefer to study Price Action

rather than depending on indicators. Price action gives you first hand

info about what is happening in the market before to be translated

into indicators.

 

Since I don't like to baby sitting the computer's monitor, I practise

swing trading and go in depth with studying price action. Indicator

plays a very minimal role in my trading decision. I just use indicator

to gauge the short term and long term trend. My entry and exit points

are never based on indicators.

 

It's just personal preference. Nothing to do with right or wrong.

Trading is a probability game.

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Re: Why Not to Trade MA Crossovers..

 

I used to run a free EA from Forex-tsd called "Universal MA Crossover";it failed terribly in ranging market.

Even with a third MA as a filter it still failed.I tried a lot of other filters like RSI or Ema Angle,still no success.

I've been looking for a good filter going with 2 MA crossover but haven't found one yet and if I do I think we can use

that one alone;we don't need the 2 MA crossing

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Re: Why Not to Trade MA Crossovers..

 

I'd like to hear about sucessful strategies using short period moving averages (from 1 to 50) crossovers.

All the test I've done wasn't very promising, I do like 55, 100 and 200 SMA to have a feeling of what the price has been doing during the past periods but I can't find a better way to use them.

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Re: Why Not to Trade MA Crossovers..

 

HI

I have recently trading through MA only, i am using 8 period MA (one is 8 period MA with shift 0 exponential and other is 8 period MA shift 2 Exponential) and i am using ADX 8 apply to Median Price H/L and i have disbale ADX line as white i am using +DI (Blue color) and -DI (Red Color) with a straight line in 18 and one more indicator MACD (8,13,9). All this 3 should match to trade.

You can target 10 to 100 pips or more on this style.

 

Regards

Munal

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Re: Why Not to Trade MA Crossovers..

 

I personally use 3 EMA's for most of my trend confirmation.

 

10 EMA (applied to close, 0 shift) = Fast

50 EMA (applied to close, 0 shift) = Medium

150 EMA (applied to close, 0 shift) = Slow

 

When the fast is above the medium and the medium above the slow and as said before the gap between MA's starts to widen and expand, the trend can be considered strong.

 

The key though to trends is support & resistance.

 

If you have an up trend that closes above resistance then you will see trend continue. If it closes below then beware as there may be some sideways motion before continuing the trend. There's a bunch of psychology thats behind this but I can get into that on a different post. Vice versa for short trends.

 

I never use MA crossover's as trade signals, they are trade validation when you have a trade setup.

 

My .02.

 

Ciao!

 

whats the best value for moving averages ? is a cross over at 50 considered reliable indicator of a change of direction ?
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Re: Why Not to Trade MA Crossovers..

 

Hello,

 

Guy, ever wondered why your crossover plans sometimes fails??

 

- Cross over does not mean the market is turning... does it? Remember this is comparison of 2 MA of different period not what the price is doing..

- Best way to trade the cross over wait for the cross and confirm the trend by having the 2 MA running all most in Parallel and widening this means we have a strong trend..

 

Hope this observation will help someone.

 

Regards

 

thank you

when u want use MA crossover try use RSI (50) as trend, u will not have fails signal.

 

regards

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Re: Why Not to Trade MA Crossovers..

 

Any MA Crossover is valid only when the market is tranding. In ranging markets you get lots of fake signals. Oh, and people who quote MA crossovers to illustrate a successful entry have the "postdictive bias" in the fact that they only use those examples that confirm the crossover signal (i.e. using information that wouldn't have been available at the time of the crossover).

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