Daily Markets News From FBS

[⭐ kaito kid]

Analysts on the Fed and USD

Barclays: “The people who were expecting a more dovish statement from the Fed are unwinding their positions. USD was bought back, but whether it can sustain those gains will depend on the economic data.”

BNP Paribas: “The USD’s ability to rally simply on lack of new negative news from the Fed adds more evidence to suggest that the market has become uncomfortably short USD.”

Standard Chartered: “We stay dollar bullish. The Fed is going to tighten monetary conditions eventually, whether it’s via tapering or rate hikes, sooner than other central banks in the G10 outside of New Zealand.”

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/776

[⭐ kaito kid]

AUD/USD: analysts' forecasts

AUD/USD retraced 50% of its decline from April to August reaching $0.9700, and then corrected to the levels below $0.9500. Will the pair manage to resume advance? Here’s what the analysts think.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch: “We expect the carry supportive environment to continue until mid-December and AUD/USD to approach the high $0.90s. Then we are thinking of selling the attempts of Aussie to rise above parity, around $1.0050.

Wesptac: We are likely to see further consolidation in the $0.9400/0.9700 range in the coming weeks ahead of a break higher to $0.9920.

Citi: AUD/USD may have some modest further room to rally, but risk-return in adopting short positions should be more attractive on any further rise.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/777

[⭐ kaito kid]

Nov. 4: Asian session

The currency markets opened the week in a quite mode with the US dollar index holding at a six-week high of 80.7320. The greenback remains supported as the Friday's upbeat US manufacturing PMI raised speculation the Fed might taper QE in December. This week the market focus will be on the RBA, ECB and BOE meetings and the US GDP employment data.

EUR/USD made a quick dip to $1.3440 before recovering into the $1.3490 area. Euro remain under pressure on the back of the speculation the ECB would have to ease policy again on Thursday given disappointing news on unemployment and a lower inflation. Watch the Spanich and Italian manufacturing PMIs today (forecasts - upbeat). GBP/USD has tested the $1.5900 mark, but bounced back to the levels around $1.5930. The BOE is expected to stay on hold given the improving economic situation.UK will release construction PMI at 9:30 GMT.

AUD/USD opened the week with a bullish gap at $0.9440 on Sunday's strong China PMI and jumped to $0.9490. Upbeat Australian Retail sales added to market optimism. NZD/USD rose to $0.8270. USD/JPY is consolidating in a tight $0.9880/60 range.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/659

[⭐ kaito kid]

Trade signals from Danske Bank

EUR/USD: Long at $1.3475 with a stop at $1.3447

USD/JPY: Long at 98.34 with a target of 99.67 and a stop at 98.03

GBP/USD: Short at $1.6120 with a target of $1.5844 and a stop at $1.6015

USD/CHF: Short at 0.9143 with a target of 0.9045 and a stop at 0.9187

AUD/USD: Short at $0.9485 with a target of $0.9334 and a stop at $0.9530

USD/CAD: Look to sell

* Danske Bank traders use trailing stop orders

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/784

[⭐ kaito kid]

EUR/USD: Elliot wave analysis

Weekly. The pair seems to have formed the rising wave [D]. It is a part of a horizontal triangle and is a double zig zag. In the nearest future the pair is likely to decline in the wave [E].

Chart. Weekly EUR/USD

Daily. The pair has already started a sharp decline in the wave [E]. Bearish move is likely to continue.

Chart. Daily EUR/USD

H4. EUR/USD is forming a strong and fast-moving wave 3. We may see a small bullish correction soon. After that the market is likely to extend the downside in the wave 5 and to renew the low. All in all, there is a stable bearish trend on the market.

Chart. H4 EUR/USD

Roman Petuchov for FBS

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/785

[⭐ kaito kid]

GBP/USD: Elliot wave analysis

Weekly. The cable keeps forming a wave flat in the wave . The pair is likely to extend the upside in the coming weeks.

Chart. Weekly GBP/USD

Daily. The wave IV seems to have constructed. Bullish trend is now likely to continue in the wave V.

Chart. Daily GBP/USD

H4. The wave [C] of IV is fully filled by the waves of the lower price level. That's why the pair is likely to reverse and to begin the construction of the wave V. If this is the case, the maximum will be renewd in a week. There is also an alternative bearish layout.

Chart. H4 GBP/USD

Roman Petuchov for FBS

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/786

[⭐ kaito kid]

USD/JPY: Elliot wave analysis

Daily. The pair keeps constructing the corrective wave which has a form of a converging horizontal triangle.

Chart. Daily USD/JPY

H4. The final wave of the (E) triangle of takes a form of a zigzag or a wave flat.

Chart. H4 USD/JPY

H1. It is quite possible that the wave (E) will become a wave flat. However, if the upside move extends a little, it will be better to mark this construction as a zigzag. In any case, the pair will soon reverse and enter the downtrend.

Chart. H1 USD/JPY

Roman Petuchov for FBS

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/788

[⭐ kaito kid]

AUD/USD: Elliot wave analysis

Weekly. The pair has allegedly started to construct a rising wave [C]. Let's have a look at the detailed layout.

Chart. Weekly AUD/USD

Daily. We are seeing the first bullish impulse that hasn't been finished yet. The pair is now constructing the wave [4] of this bullish impulse.

Chart. Daily AUD/USD

H4. It is quite possible that the wave [4] takes a form of a zigzag. We could see a corrective upward move before the second zigzag leg. After the wave [4] the pair is likely to move up in the wave [5].

Chart. H4 AUD/USD

Roman Petuchov for FBS

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/789

[⭐ kaito kid]

Nov. 5: Asian session

EUR/USD is trading under pressure slightly below the $1.3500 mark. Yesterday the euro has renewed a 6-week low at $1.3440. Later on the euro has recovered some ground as euro zone’s manufacturing PMI stayed above 50 for a fourth month in a row. Investors stay cautious ahead of the ECB policy meeting on Thursday. GBP/USD is consolidating in the $1.5950/80 range.

AUD/USD weakened to the levels below the $0.9500 mark. As it was expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia left the rates on hold at 2.50%. According to the accompanying statement, lower Australian dollar is likely to be needed to balance growth in economy. NZD/USD has mirrored the Aussie, slipping to $0.8270.

USD/JPY dipped to 98.20 before recovering to 98.50. Japanese yen strengthened together with the Nikkei drop on Nissan’s stocks depreciation. USD/CHF holds above $0.9100, but remains below the yesterday’s peak of $0.9150.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/661

[⭐ kaito kid]

GBP/USD rockets on services PMI

GBP/USD jumped from $1.5960 to $1.6030 on surprisingly strong UK services PMI. The index hit the record high of 62.5 in October (forecast: 60.4, September: 60.3). Data added more optimism to the UK Q4 economic expectations.

Source: ForexFactory

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/662

[⭐ kaito kid]

HSBC: sell EUR/JPY

Strategists at HSBC recommend selling EUR/JPY at 133.20, with a target of 128.00 and a stop at 135.80. In their view, the ECB is unlikely to cut on the November meeting, but the press conference is likely to keep the EUR under pressure.

"We chose the JPY as the long leg of our trade as any further increase in the probability attached to 2013 Fed tapering would challenge the risk-on mood, and the JPY is best placed to capitalize", they add.

Chart. Daily EUR/JPY

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/791

[⭐ kaito kid]

Analysts: comments on EUR/USD

Commerzbank: EUR/USD dropped to $1.3440 (4-month support and 38.3% Fibonacci retracement). This area is likely to hold the first bearish attack. Intraday growth will be limited by the $1.3555/1.3605 area - resell the pair from here. Break below $1.3440 would open the way to September lows of $1.3104.

Crédit Agricole: Sell EUR/USD with a target of $1.3300. Low inflation opens the way for policy easing. The ECB President Mario Draghi is very likely to hint on the possible rate cuts on the press-conference on Thursday.

Danske Bank: Recent FOMC signals and market expectations of a "dovish" ECB are a bearish mix for EUR/USD. We are worried by the pair's inability to return above the $1.3500 mark. Bulls still have some chances, but the top seems to have been formed at $1.3830. Our year-end forecast is $1.3300.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/790

[⭐ kaito kid]

Nov. 6: Asian session

EUR/USD keeps consolidating in the $1.3460/3525 area. Today euro returned to the levels above $1.3500 on the expectations that the ECB will keep interest rates unchanged tomorrow, while data due to be released in the US on Thursday may show that American economic growth slowed down in Q3 – such outcome will reduce the odds of the Fed starting QE tapering anytime soon. In the euro area pay attention to Spanish and Italian services PMIs at 08:15-45, the region’s retail sales at 10:00 GMT and German factory orders at 11:00 GMT.

GBP/USD rose to $1.6095. Britain will publish manufacturing production figures at 09:30 GMT and NIESR GDP Estimate at 15:00 GMT. USD/JPY moved up to 98.75 as the rise in Nikkei boosted risk sentiment. The Bank of Japan’s October policy meeting minutes have once again confirmed that Japan’s economy is recovering moderately. USD/CHF met resistance around 0.9140 and slid to 0.9110.

NZD/USD tested the $0.8400 mark, supported by strong quarterly labor market data. Employment rose by 1.2% q/q (forecast: +0.5%). Unemployment rate lowered from 6.4% to 6.2%. AUD/USD has also recovered some ground to $0.9530, but the upside remains limited by the yesterday’s high. Today’s data showed September trade deficit narrowed to 284M (vs. expected 500M). Australia employment figures will be released tonight. USD/CAD met resistance around 1.0460. Watch Canadian building permits at 13:30 GMT and Ivey PMI at 15:00 GMT.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/664

[⭐ kaito kid]

Key currency options

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3450, $1.3500, $1.3620, $1.3650;

GBP/USD: $1.5960, $1.6010, $1.6060, $1.6075;

USD/JPY: 97.00, 98.45, 98.50, 98.65, 98.75, 99.00 (large), 100.00 (large);

USD/CHF: 0.9100 (large);

AUD/USD: 0.9400, 0.9500 (large);

USD/CAD: 1.0395, 1.0430;

EUR/GBP: 0.8445, 0.8470

AUD/JPY: 94.00.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/665

[⭐ kaito kid]

Nomura expects dovish hints from ECB

According to Nomura’s global client survey, the ECB is expected to lower the benchmark rate in December by 54% of the respondents. In November the majority expects the central bank to stay on hold. In addition, almost half of the surveyed thinks that the euro zone inflation will drop below 0.5% over the next year.

As a result, Nomura says that the biggest surprise of the ECB’s meeting tomorrow would be a tone in press conference which doesn’t hint at a rate cut in December.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/666

[⭐ kaito kid]

Trade signals from Danske Bank

EUR/USD: Possibly buy

USD/JPY: Long at 98.34 with a target of 99.67 and a stop at 98.14

GBP/USD: Long at $1.6065 with a target of $1.6174 and a stop at $1.6010

USD/CHF: Short at 0.9143 with a target of 0.9045 and a stop at 0.9155

AUD/USD: Possibly buy

USD/CAD: Long at 1.0385 with a target of 1.0609 and a stop at 1.0325

* Danske Bank traders use trailing stop orders

[⭐ kaito kid]

FBS: "wedges" on JPY crosses

JPY crosses are quite sensitive to the changes in the risk sentiment with JPY strengthening at the times of risk aversion as Nikkei 225 tends to fall. Today we see that Japanese stock index returned to growth after the initial losses pushing EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY and AUD/JPY higher. However, the Nikkei index is now close to testing the 7-month rising uptrend support line. If it breaks below this line, JPY crosses will find themselves under severe pressure.

EUR/JPY

The EUR/JPY pair remains supported by the 50-day MA and the thin bullish Ichimoku, but has a big reversal potential. The pair is testing the bottom of the reversal “rising wedge” pattern (currently at 133.20). Pay attention to the MACD divergence on a weekly chart - another bearish signal.

JP Morgan strategists are ready to sell EUR/JPY on a break below 132.15 with an initial target of 124.97/95. Commerzbank will go short on the pair on a weekly close below 132.00 with a target of target at 122.80. Strategists at HSBC have already sold EUR/JPY at 133.20, with a target of 128.00 and a stop at 135.80 (more details here).

Chart. Daily EUR/JPY

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY has also formed a “rising wedge” pattern, but is now trading around 400 pips above the bottom line. According to JP Morgan, bulls сould have taken the pair over full control below the key support at 154.10. Next targets are seen at 151.10 and 147.60.

Chart. Daily GBP/JPY

AUD/JPY

On the AUD/JPY chart we also see a "rising wedge", though it is a little bit smaller because of a sharp Aussie drop in spring. Slide below 92.50 would open the way to 90.70 and then to 86.50.

Chart. Daily AUD/JPY

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/794

[⭐ kaito kid]

EUR/USD: near-term prospects

EUR/USD stabilized in the $1.3490/3500 area after the sell-off seen last week (50% Fibo of the decline in 2011-2012, daily Ichimoku Cloud). The pair’s now at the base of the rising channel and close to 38.2% Fibo of the uptrend.

There’s a strong event risk on Thursday/Friday (the ECB, US GDP and NFP). Given the level of uncertainty, we don’t expect euro to retrace the whole move made last week. We expect the ECB to acknowledge deflation risk. Resistance is at $1.3525, $1.3580 and $1.3630. Support is at $1.3450 and $1.3420. The loss here will lead to a decline to $1.3300 and $1.3370.

As Credit Agricole puts it, EUR/USD may decline today, but then it will be vulnerable for a temporary bounce – possibly as high as $1.3550. This should be a nice selling opportunity.

Chart. Daily EUR/USD

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/795

[⭐ kaito kid]

Nov. 7: Asian session

EUR/USD is trading at $1.3520 after it reached $1.3547 yesterday. Euro remains supported before the ECB meets today amid speculation the region’s economy isn’t fragile enough to warrant an interest-rate cut (12:45 GMT). The central bank’s president Mario Draghi will start speaking at 13:30 GMT, while the US will release advance GDP and employment claims figures.

GBP/USD is trading in the $1.6080 area after it rose to $1.6117 yesterday. The results of the Bank of England’s meeting will become known at 12:00 GMT: no changes in the monetary policy are expected. USD/JPY keeps consolidating in a narrow 85.75/55 range. USD/CHF slid to 0.9112 from this week’s highs around 0.9150.

AUD/USD dropped from the levels above $0.9500 to $0.9465, disappointed by the Australian jobs report. Employment increased only by 1.1K versus 10.3K growth expected. Unemployment rate came at 5.7%, while the previous reading was revised up from 5.6% to 5.7%. NZD/USD has found support at $0.8350. USD/CAD is trying to hold at 1.0415. Canadian dollar strengthened yesterday amid a rally in commodities including crude oil, the nation’s biggest export.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/670

[⭐ kaito kid]

Key currency options

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3450 (large), $1.3500 (large), $1.3550, $1.3570, $1.3650, $1.3700;

GBP/USD: $1.6100;

USD/JPY: 97.75, 98.00, 98.50, 98.60, 99.00, 100.00;

USD/CHF: 0.9060, 0.9100, 0.9150;

AUD/USD: $0.9350, $0.9470, $0.9475, $0.9500, $0.9550;

USD/CAD: 1.0425;

NZD/USD: $0.8275, $0.8425;

EUR/GBP: 0.8400, 0.8425, 0.8450, 0.8470, 0.8485;

AUD/JPY: 94.00.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/671

[⭐ kaito kid]

Trade signals from Danske Bank

EUR/USD: Long at $1.3490 with a target of $1.3716 and a stop at $1.3382

USD/JPY: Long at 98.34 with a target of 99.67 and a stop at 98.14

GBP/USD: Long at $1.6065 with a target of $1.6174 and a stop at $1.6010

USD/CHF: Short at 0.9143 with a target of 0.9045 and a stop at 0.9155

AUD/USD: Short at $0.9505 with a target of $0.9410 and a stop at $0.9554

USD/CAD: Long at 1.0430 with an initial target of 1.0505 and a stop at 1.0395

* Danske Bank traders use trailing stop orders

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/798

[⭐ kaito kid]

BoA: weaker USD and JPY

Bank of America Merrill Lynch expects USD to resume the larger downtrend and expect US dollar index to target 78.72 (currently at 80.45). The bank is bearish on greenback, except versus JPY.

The specialists point out that EUR/USD is basing against $1.3452/1.3412 support, while GBP/USD is resuming its long term bull trend for $1.6262/1.6315.

BoA is also bearish on JPY versus USD, EUR and GBP. According to the bank, EUR/JPY will target 138.12/141.03 (bears need a break below 131.12 to negate this bullish potential and point to a turn in trend).

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/800

[⭐ kaito kid]

ECB meeting and EUR/USD scenario

The ECB meeting results will be announced at 12:45 GMT. Mario Draghi will start speaking at 13:30 GMT.

The majority of analysts think that the central bank will leave its benchmark rate unchanged. Goldman Sachs thinks that the ECB may express more explicitly its concern about the recent EUR strength and deflation. Barclays and Citi point out that the ECB will stay on hold today, so there may be a knee-jerk EUR/USD move higher. However, Mario Draghi is likely to signal willingness to cut rates before long (in December when new forecasts are released), so the specialists recommend selling EUR on any rally.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/801

[⭐ kaito kid]

USD/CHF: levels to watch

USD/CHF is consolidating in the 0.9150/00 area and one may trade on its breakout.

On the upside, at 0.9150 there’s a 3-month resistance line and the bottom of the daily bearish Ichimoku Cloud. Next resistance levels lie at 0.9177 (October high) and 0.9210/20 (top of the Cloud, 38.2% Fibo of July-October decline) and further at 0.9285. Support is at 0.9050 and 0.9033.

Swiss SECO Consumer confidence index came a bit worse than expected at (-5 versus -4). Watch the upcoming important data in the US and Europe – they will have much impact on USD/CHF. Mind the strong inverse correlation between USD/CHF and the EUR/USD, so only a heavy pressure on euro will make USD/CHF move significantly up.

Chart. Daily USD/CHF

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/803

[⭐ kaito kid]

Nov. 8: Asian session

US dollar mostly holds its grounds before the NFP release at 13:30 GMT (forecast: 121K; previous: 148K) and after data yesterday showed the economy expanded more than forecast. Later today, at 14:55 GMT, there will be the release of the University of Michigan consumer confidence survey.

EUR/USD spiked down to $1.3294 yesterday as the ECB lowered its benchmark rate to 0.25%, but then managed to close above $1.3400. Euro’s currently trading a bit above this handle. In the euro area watch for German trade balance at 07:00 GMT and French industrial production at 07:45 GMT. GBP/USD tested $1.6009 yesterday, but then closed just below $1.6100 and is currently trading in this area. Britain will release trade balance at 09:30 GMT.

USD/JPY is consolidating in a tight 98.05/25 range after the yesterday volatile trade. Nikkei 225 dropped by 1.15% to the lowest level since early October. USD/CHF spiked up to 0.9250 yesterday, but closed at 0.9155 and is currently trading about 50 pips above this level.

AUD/USD has recovered to $0.9460 after a dip to $0.9430 earlier in the session. Aussie has initially come under pressure on quite dovish RBA meeting minutes (rate cut still possible if needed), but later has recovered some ground on a better-than expected China trade balance. NZD/USD recovered to $0.8330 after having tested $0.8305 yesterday. USD/CAD rose to the levels in the 1.0450 area yesterday and has been trading in this area during the Asian session today. Canada will also publish employment data at 13:30 GMT.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/677